Author Topic: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)  (Read 10244 times)

scrubbyfish

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why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« on: February 05, 2015, 01:05:36 PM »
I'm Canadian, and am in Canada.
But I can just as easily select US and other international funds for my portfolio.

It seems that the Canadian market has lower returns than the US's does.
Am I straight up incorrect here?
Are there periods where the Canadian market does as well or better than the US?

More pointedly: What is the underlying purpose of investing a good 25-35% of a Canadian's portfolio in the Canadian market, as is often recommended?

Allen

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2015, 01:39:42 PM »
You should always invest around 25% in "international stocks", for you that's Canada, with the rest in U.S.!

Seriously though, I don't know why these recommendations are made other than comfort and national pride or whatever.  The numbers don't lie!

morning owl

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2015, 03:07:04 PM »
I think it's generally recommended because it's your own currency. You don't have to deal with currency fluctuations. It's great to invest in foreign and U.S. stocks -- I try to keep my US portfolio at about 40%, with cdn equities at about 30%. I'm glad I did because right now, US stocks are extremely expensive, given the exchange rates. Great for the portfolio, but harder to buy into.

bigchrisb

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2015, 10:18:48 PM »
I'm not Canadian, but have the same issue in Australia. I take the view that it makes sense to have an investment, and hence a currency hedge for the country I intend to spend most of my time (and money) in.

deborah

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2015, 10:28:55 PM »
I am Australian. Five years ago $1AUD = $0.7US - then the Australian dollar went up , and was $1AUD = $1.1US for a while - but most of the time a dollar equaled a dollar. In the last few weeks, we have gone down again. However, during those five years, if I had all my money in US stocks rather than all Australian stocks, I would have been earning 30% less (all other things being equal - which they weren't - Australian stocks also did better, so it would have been even worse) than if I had all Australian stocks.

Having some money in your own country's stocks reduces currency exposure. However, it is not good to have all your money in your own country's stocks - I just used this as an example.

bigchrisb

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2015, 11:11:22 PM »
I am Australian. Five years ago $1AUD = $0.7US - then the Australian dollar went up , and was $1AUD = $1.1US for a while - but most of the time a dollar equaled a dollar. In the last few weeks, we have gone down again. However, during those five years, if I had all my money in US stocks rather than all Australian stocks, I would have been earning 30% less (all other things being equal - which they weren't - Australian stocks also did better, so it would have been even worse) than if I had all Australian stocks.

Having some money in your own country's stocks reduces currency exposure. However, it is not good to have all your money in your own country's stocks - I just used this as an example.

Agree 100% about the currency exposure! 

However, in this particular case, Aus shares in AUD terms significantly under performed US shares in AUD terms.  Using the vanguard AU ETFs (data from vanguard page)  VTS for US exposure returned 17.9% compound p.a. and VAS for Australian returned 6.31%.  Sure, you can probably add an extra 1% to the AU shares for the franking credits, but its still a long way behind 127% total return vs ~ 42% (allowing 1% from franking).

I'm getting to the point where I should probably re balance some of my US shares into local shares for just these reasons.

Heckler

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2015, 12:34:31 AM »
Look at the US crash of 2008, where the tsx went down, but not nearly as violently.  That's why you want to invest in canuckleland - diversification to reduce risk. 

Quinn

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2015, 01:59:38 AM »
Vanguard has a study on home biases and their effects on market returns and volatility.
https://pressroom.vanguard.com/content/nonindexed/6.26.2012_The_Role_of_Home_Bias.pdf

If you have a home bias, wouldn't your investments' performance be highly correlated with your house value/salary/cost of living such that if your home country's economy tanks, most of your assets will drop in value together. Wouldn't it make sense then to avoid home bias, to remove correlation between your different asset classes?

Would investing in the entire global market (e.g. VT) help to correct for currency risk? Wouldn't currency changes be balanced with the prices of other stocks? I can't put this properly into words, but let's say you buy a world index fund in CAD, if CAD weakens against other currencies, wouldn't the CAD prices of non-canadian stocks increase? This way, wouldn't the underlying value of the fund be the same? So if you were to buy the world market, it doesn't matter if you buy it in USD, CAD, or AUD, since the underlying value of the fund is the same. Is my thinking correct?

Sorry for all the questions but I'm trying to wrap my head around ways to evaluate currency risk. Given that my home country has a global market cap of <1%, my approach so far has been to invest in VT/VWRD in USD and buy local government bonds for the fixed income portion of my asset allocation.

deborah

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2015, 02:22:37 AM »
Assume that you live in your country, and don't gallivant around the world, spreading your stash throughout all the countries of the world. Assume that you don't go outside your country at all.

Assume your stash is sitting in bundles of cash under your bed.

Let us say you have $10,000AUD under your bed. If you live in Australia it would be worth $10,000AUD all the time, so whenever you went shopping, the prices you pay are what the labels say. However if you lived in the US, several weeks ago, you would have paid virtually what the labels said, but now that the AUD has gone down to 70c US, you would need to hand over 30% more AUD to buy the same thing as you could a few weeks ago.

Currencies fluctuate all the time against one another - the Swiss franc has gone up dramatically in the last few weeks, so if you had Swiss Francs under your bed you would get a lot more for them now.

morning owl

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2015, 05:36:43 AM »
Vanguard has a study on home biases and their effects on market returns and volatility.
https://pressroom.vanguard.com/content/nonindexed/6.26.2012_The_Role_of_Home_Bias.pdf

If you have a home bias, wouldn't your investments' performance be highly correlated with your house value/salary/cost of living such that if your home country's economy tanks, most of your assets will drop in value together. Wouldn't it make sense then to avoid home bias, to remove correlation between your different asset classes?

Would investing in the entire global market (e.g. VT) help to correct for currency risk? Wouldn't currency changes be balanced with the prices of other stocks? I can't put this properly into words, but let's say you buy a world index fund in CAD, if CAD weakens against other currencies, wouldn't the CAD prices of non-canadian stocks increase? This way, wouldn't the underlying value of the fund be the same? So if you were to buy the world market, it doesn't matter if you buy it in USD, CAD, or AUD, since the underlying value of the fund is the same. Is my thinking correct?

Sorry for all the questions but I'm trying to wrap my head around ways to evaluate currency risk. Given that my home country has a global market cap of <1%, my approach so far has been to invest in VT/VWRD in USD and buy local government bonds for the fixed income portion of my asset allocation.

If the US markets (for example) were strong, and the CAD weak, as is currently the case, then it's a double whammy when you go to purchase new stocks. I.e. the stronger market is expensive to buy into to begin with, and when you are purchasing it with weak currency, then you are not able to buy much of it. Your dollar has lost its purchase power.

I bought a lot of US stocks a few years ago, and then again when the dollar was at par. I would not buy any US stocks at the moment, because a) they are priced relatively high and b) I lose about 25% of my money due to currency exchange. So I try to find value in Canada, even though our economy is weakening. I don't know where it's headed, but I am staying the course with my asset allocation. When US is priced high, and our dollar is low, I buy Canadian.

I see what you mean about hedging against volatility in your own economy. But this is what international holdings are for. You just need to buy them when the exchange rate is more favourable.

RichMoose

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2015, 07:43:53 AM »
I bought a lot of US stocks a few years ago, and then again when the dollar was at par. I would not buy any US stocks at the moment, because a) they are priced relatively high and b) I lose about 25% of my money due to currency exchange. So I try to find value in Canada, even though our economy is weakening. I don't know where it's headed, but I am staying the course with my asset allocation. When US is priced high, and our dollar is low, I buy Canadian.

Yep, stick to your desired AA and everything will balance out. For example in my portfolio the Canadian portion hasn't gone anywhere since June. The US portion (in CAD) is up more than 20% in that time thanks to some OT money coming in around the October dip. I need to buy Canadian only for the next couple months just to re-balance.

nereo

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2015, 10:45:43 AM »

If the US markets (for example) were strong, and the CAD weak, as is currently the case, then it's a double whammy when you go to purchase new stocks. I.e. the stronger market is expensive to buy into to begin with, and when you are purchasing it with weak currency, then you are not able to buy much of it. Your dollar has lost its purchase power.
...

I see what you mean about hedging against volatility in your own economy. But this is what international holdings are for. You just need to buy them when the exchange rate is more favourable.
The exchange rate is only unfavorable if you look just at the last 5 years.  Taking a broader view....:
« Last Edit: February 06, 2015, 01:37:44 PM by nereo »

rocketpj

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2015, 12:25:51 PM »
I have a fairly large allocation to Canadian equities as well. 

In my index funds I am about 30% cdn (VCN) and another 10% VCB (bonds).  I have another 35% VUN (US) and the rest is international (XEC, XEF) and an international REIT.  I suppose there is some element of currency hedging in there, but it is mostly just because I am loosely following one of the CCP model portfolios, and the whole point is to minimize brainpower and market timing efforts.

In my much smaller allocation to directly owned equities I am all TSX because in order to have even a faint chance of doing well I need to focus on something specific (in my case long-term value investing small/mid cap companies).

beaster

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2015, 01:24:33 PM »
I'm Canadian and I really struggle to find cad denominated investments that are more attractive than usd securities. With the usd/cad up so much recently I have scoured my cdn watchlist again and have ended up buying a hedged etf on us s&p dividend growers. I would love to buy good Canadian companies but on a relative basis they are just not that appealing! I do have my token Canadian holdings but when it comes to right now I am not compelled to add to these positions although I would love to put my Canadian dollars to work in some Canadian investments! As a side note, I did enjoy my best returns ever in January due to my heavily weighted usd portfolio!! Enjoying while I can!

Heather in Ottawa

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2015, 03:36:12 PM »
Don't forget to factor in the more favourable tax treatment of Canadian capital gains and dividends in taxable accounts.  Taxtips.ca is a great resource for learning all those rules.

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2015, 05:51:26 PM »
However, qualified (Canadian) dividends do enjoy favourable tax treatment, including a negative tax rate if your income is low. The negative tax rate actually makes a taxable account better than the registered accounts for some people.

My income is low and I have heaps of annual tax credits, so I don't concern myself with tax-efficient strategies. But what is a negative tax rate and how does it make a taxable account better than a Registered in some cases?

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2015, 05:59:38 PM »
Thanks :)

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2015, 06:01:12 PM »
Yes to the Canadian dividend tax credit. If one is seeking to live off dividends in retirement (me) then you can earn around 50k in eligible Canadian dividends and pay virtually NO TAX. There are a few caveats, and its not quite as simple as that statement suggests, but it is a worthwhile strategy for many. I hold a decent portion U.S. and international stocks too, but I will always be overweight quality Canadian dividend payers like Bell, TD bank etc...

The Globe and Mail had a great article on it - google it.

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2015, 12:47:40 PM »
So...A Canadian investing in the Canadian market makes sense if:
  • the loonie is low (like right now) and we're converting to US currency to buy stocks, or if
  • I might need to spend some of my invested Canadian dollars in Canada and would be relying on corresponding ups and downs, or if
  • I might need to access some of my invested money at a point when US stocks are low, or if
  • I could benefit by some tax relief on investments
But if...
  • the loonie is low (like right now), and I'm buying my US stocks in Canadian dollars, and
  • I don't need to spend any of my invested dollars in Canada within the next 10-20 years, and
  • I don't need any of the invested money within the next 10-20 years, and
  • I don't need or benefit from Canadian tax relief on investments
then none of us can see reason for a Canadian to buy Canadian stocks.

Is all of that correct?

RichMoose

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2015, 01:12:01 PM »
Don't forget an important part of the equation: diversity.

The Canadian market represents about 3% of the global stock market. That's nothing. Comparatively, the US (50%), Japan (8%), and the UK (7.5%) are much larger.

The Canadian market is dominated by financials (40%) and oil/gas (20%). Globally the market is broken down into industrials (11%), health care (11%), technology (11%), banks (10%), and going down from there. Globally the market is much more evenly diversified so it lowers your risk.

As well, from a foreign exchange perspective you want to buy outside of Canada when the loonie is high, not low.

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2015, 01:22:32 PM »
Don't forget an important part of the equation: diversity.

The Canadian market represents about 3% of the global stock market. That's nothing. Comparatively, the US (50%), Japan (8%), and the UK (7.5%) are much larger.

The Canadian market is dominated by financials (40%) and oil/gas (20%). Globally the market is broken down into industrials (11%), health care (11%), technology (11%), banks (10%), and going down from there. Globally the market is much more evenly diversified so it lowers your risk.

Those are cases for not buying Canadian stocks, yes? i.e., These seem to continue pointing to not having 30% of one's portfolio in the Canadian market.

As well, from a foreign exchange perspective you want to buy outside of Canada when the loonie is high, not low.

There I was saying more that the exchange rate (maybe) becomes moot if I'm buying US-listed funds in Canadian dollars. i.e., If I'm putting, say, $100000 CAD into US-listed stocks, the $100000 buys fewer stocks overall, but it still increases by the percentage. e.g.,

$100000CAD buying 1000 stocks in Canada, and the market returns 5%
vs
$100000CAD buying 600 stocks in the US, and the market returns 8%.

Aren't I still better off in the latter scenario?

deborah

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2015, 01:48:00 PM »
Whether you are buying US stocks in Canadian dollars or US dollars they are still costing the same amount of US dollars (roughly), so when the Canadian dollar goes up, the shares will go down.

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2015, 03:39:19 PM »
Whether you are buying US stocks in Canadian dollars or US dollars they are still costing the same amount of US dollars (roughly), so when the Canadian dollar goes up, the shares will go down.

Help...

A US stock costs $1usd/share
That costs me $1.20cad
I have $100,000.
So I get to buy 83,333 shares.
In 20 years, the return on the US market is 8%.
I gained $8000.

A Cad stock costs $1cad/share.
That costs me $1cad/share.
I have $100000.
So I get to buy 100,000 shares.
In 20 years, the return on the Cad market is 5%.
I gained $5000.

What are the additional factors that come in?

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2015, 04:11:48 PM »
I know there's something here that I'm not grasping, but I don't know what it is. I think I'm getting a hint of something in these words from Canadian Couch Potato:

Quote
“…a rising loonie would harm returns. For Canadians who held unhedged foreign equities, the worst period in recent times was 2002 through 2007, when the Canadian dollar soared from about $0.63 to over $1.02 USD. During those six years, the S&P 500 returned over 6% annually in US dollars, but lost about 2% a year in Canadian-dollar terms.”

But I'm still not grasping what this other factor is. If I spend $100,000CAD on US-listed Coca-Cola stocks, and Coca-Cola stocks go up 10%, how is it that the US folks walk away with the 10% and I walk away with less than 10%? If I paid for the stocks in CAD, and I'm selling the stocks in CAD, how does a currency exchange factor in?

I don't mean to sound dumb, I think I'm probably missing something obvious...but missing it I am!

Retire-Canada

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2015, 04:16:23 PM »
But I'm still not grasping what this other factor is. If I spend $100,000CAD on US-listed Coca-Cola stocks, and Coca-Cola stocks go up 10%, how is it that the US folks walk away with the 10% and I walk away with less than 10%? If I paid for the stocks in CAD, and I'm selling the stocks in CAD, how does a currency exchange factor in?

I don't mean to sound dumb, I think I'm probably missing something obvious...but missing it I am!

If exchange rates don't change and $1 USD = $0.80 CAD during your investment timeframe there is no risk.

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2015, 04:54:25 PM »
Oh! (ish)

I swear I've been studious with the other thread too... but yes, this breakdown of numbers/steps has made a little lightbulb go on! I've rewritten it out on paper, twice, and repeated the math to see how it goes... I can see there's still one point of confusion for me in it, like I can see and replicate the steps now but my brain isn't jumping its last hurdle, but I'm going to keep playing on paper to see if it will. Thanks!!!

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #26 on: February 12, 2015, 06:24:58 PM »
Many math cartoons later...

So, in that example:
loonie was worth 80 cents to USD dollar,
I bought 2727 shares at $36.67cad,
but in usa terms, each of these was worth 29.31usd.

the us market did its thing, went up by 10%.
so each share increased by $2.93usd to $32.24.

if i sell all 2727 shares when the loonie is still .80 to the usd,
then what i bought at 36.37cad is now [32.24usd x 2727 = $87918.48usd x ???? = ] $110,000.
(what's off in the above equation?)
in this case, i net the 10%, walking away with $110,000.
the relationship of the currencies was the same, so currency rates did not affect the final number.

but if i go to sell it at a time when the cad is subsequently on par with usd,
then what i bought at 36.27cad is now [32.24usd x 2727 = $87918.48usd x 1 = ] $87918.48cad.
in this case, i walk away with 88% of what I put in, or a 12% loss.

so, even though in my imagination "i bought 2727 stocks, worth 36.67cad each, and it went up therefore i have more", the additional factor is that of the cad doing a roller coaster, and where it lands at time of selling is the only thing that determines the value, entirely secondary to how the stock actually performed.

is that it?

it's basically like running two stocks, one overlaid on the other, each impacting the other, with both having equal potential for volatility.

but if i were to have spent $100,000 to buy $100,000 in us dollars, when these were at par, and then used those us dollars to buy the shares, then i would eliminate this additional factor.
there are additional ways, too, to eliminate this risk (currency hedging) as noted in cathy's post on that.

is this all correct?

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #27 on: February 12, 2015, 06:46:21 PM »
but if i were to have spent $100,000 to buy $100,000 in us dollars, when these were at par, and then used those us dollars to buy the shares, then i would eliminate this additional factor.

No, this is not correct. The risk would be exactly the same even if you had bought in when 1 CAD = 1 USD. There is no significance whatsoever to the currencies being "at par" (except in the sense that you might believe the CAD is unlikely to go much about that threshold).

If I converted to US dollars, invested in US stocks, and left the money in US dollars until it reached the same exchange rate that I'd originally converted at, why would the currency risk not be resolved? I would see the 10% gain, period, no?

Was the rest of my post correct?

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #28 on: February 12, 2015, 07:07:04 PM »
Yes, obviously if you enter and exit at the same exchange rate, you avoid exchange rate risk.

Got it.

Yes, my "buying when at par" scenario was, I see, a total red herring. It's not the rate we opt in at or opt out at, but those being about the same.

And what I can see being a bigger risk is looking not only for an exchange rate close enough to the buying-in one, but looking for that to also coincide with an increase in the stock's US value. i.e., Not only simply looking for the moon to appear in the sky -which we trust it will with some regularity- and not even just a full moon or a blue moon or a lunar eclipse, but a selenelion!

Now I'm curious about how Canadian Couch Potato recommends the US funds at all, especially considering it cautions against currency hedging: http://canadiancouchpotato.com/2015/02/04/stepping-back-from-the-hedge/  Will continue reading.

deborah

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #29 on: February 12, 2015, 07:46:02 PM »
Because like the Australian market, the Canadian market is very small.

I will go with Australia, and hope that Canada is the same in the example I pick. Australia mainly does mining - we have lots of coal, and iron ore. We have almost no manufacturing. We have good banks (rated some of the best in the world - which probably means that we are ripped off more than other people are). Anyway, the ASX200 is basically mining stocks and banks. Which isn't very diverse.

If Belgium suddenly found the world's purest, cheapest to extract, cheapest to ship biggest iron ore deposit, well, guess what, Australia would no longer have that industry, and all our mining stocks would be worth less, so our index would go down. We have few other stocks to balance the loss of iron ore so the ASX200 would go down, so the index would go down. Everyone else's index would stay up (except Belgium's which would rise). If we had a war - let's say Indonesia invaded us - the same thing would happen.

You need diversification of investment, especially when you are a small player. Things in other countries can have a big effect on your economy, and thus your share market.

OK, Australia and Canada are in the G20, which means they are two of the 20 biggest economies in the world. And that makes us big compared with the other 150 or so economies, but we are piddling compared to some others. And as developing nations become developed, we are going to inevitably move down the rankings.

scrubbyfish

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Re: why invest in Canada?? (a.k.a. what am I missing?)
« Reply #30 on: February 13, 2015, 06:54:08 PM »
Thank you, both!!