Author Topic: Please teach me about TSLA  (Read 5614 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2020, 07:21:29 AM »
Tesla had a 5:1 stock split today, so people's TSLA holdings may look strange until accounts reflect all the changes.  The stock, formerly at $2200 per share, is being replaced by five times as many shares at $440 per share.  Don't panic!  :)

theoverlook

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #51 on: August 31, 2020, 08:25:13 AM »
-It takes me about 10 seconds to plug in my car in my garage.  Doing that weekly is approximately 9 minutes of my time per year.

-I used to stop at the gas station about every 10 days, taking about 10 minutes to drive out of my way / wait at 2 stoplights / fill up / pay / etc.  That's approximately 365 minutes of my time per year.  I'm not sure how you did that in 2 minutes, unless you literally have a race track pit stop on your way home.  Maybe call it 5 minutes if you have a super convenient one.


I like this comparison a lot. I have both gas and electric cars (I have a bit of a car addiction, currently at 6) and ever since driving the Volt regularly I've found that it feels like a pain in the ass to fill up the gas cars. It literally takes seconds to fill the batteries on the Volt, and it's done in the same places I regularly park it. It takes a long time to fill up the gas cars and you have to make a special trip to a dedicated fueling location and - side rant - possibly listen to overly loud advertisements and annoying commentary on the pump. My gearhead bonafides are unimpeachable, but I've been converted to the wonders of the electric car.

The average person doesn't understand ahead of time that charging times literally do not matter 99.9% of the time because you begin each day with a full battery. Imagine if your gas car started each day with a full tank - how often would you have to get gas? For most people, never. Unless you're burning through multiple tanks of gas in a day it's a non-issue.

KungfuRabbit

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #52 on: August 31, 2020, 08:25:30 AM »
Waymo isn't actually doing full self driving.

Do you have a source for that? Because they have a hell of a lot of sensors:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/4/21165014/waymo-fifth-generation-self-driving-radar-camera-lidar-jaguar-ipace

Yup, Waymo itself stated it

https://blog.waymo.com/2019/09/building-maps-for-self-driving-car.html

From what I understand that general plan has not changed.  And yes, they still have plenty of sensors, but again they are more to avoid running into other things on the road, than following the road itself. 

Paper Chaser

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #53 on: August 31, 2020, 10:35:38 AM »
Waymo isn't actually doing full self driving.

Do you have a source for that? Because they have a hell of a lot of sensors:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/4/21165014/waymo-fifth-generation-self-driving-radar-camera-lidar-jaguar-ipace

Yup, Waymo itself stated it

https://blog.waymo.com/2019/09/building-maps-for-self-driving-car.html

From what I understand that general plan has not changed.  And yes, they still have plenty of sensors, but again they are more to avoid running into other things on the road, than following the road itself.

To be clear, Waymo maps places ahead of time so they know many of the basics (topography, speed limits, intersections, etc), but the vehicles are then put into those scenarios and expected to navigate them (and any obstacles or weather conditions) within the map on their own. They've had Level 4 Autonomous driving on public roads without a safety driver since 2017.

Tesla isn't bothering with mapping, and is relying on the vehicles to figure it all out on the fly. Anytime, anywhere as far as I know. This data is then beamed back to the mother ship and used to grow their AI which will eventually be released as their "Full Self Driving" software package. They're Level 2 at this point though.



So when an average person talks about "Self driving", they're probably talking about Level 4 autonomy where the vehicle does everything on it's own. Waymo's ahead in that regard.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 10:41:15 AM by Paper Chaser »

AdrianC

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #54 on: August 31, 2020, 10:36:58 AM »
Honestly, please give me a good rebuttal to this, because I really truly don't understand why people care about range and charging time so much, its just silly. 
Which Tesla model do you have? Standard range or long range?

johndoe

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #55 on: August 31, 2020, 06:25:30 PM »
Tesla had a 5:1 stock split today, so people's TSLA holdings may look strange until accounts reflect all the changes.  The stock, formerly at $2200 per share, is being replaced by five times as many shares at $440 per share.  Don't panic!  :)
And it will be back to $2200 in a few days :)

PaulMaxime

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #56 on: August 31, 2020, 08:17:03 PM »
Tesla had a 5:1 stock split today, so people's TSLA holdings may look strange until accounts reflect all the changes.  The stock, formerly at $2200 per share, is being replaced by five times as many shares at $440 per share.  Don't panic!  :)
And it will be back to $2200 in a few days :)

Up 16% today to 514.75 (2573.75 pre split) !!!

bacchi

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #57 on: September 01, 2020, 09:25:17 AM »
Given the above, I'm long SQQQ (which uses futures to short the QQQ/NQ).

hodedofome

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #58 on: September 01, 2020, 01:21:34 PM »
Given the above, I'm long SQQQ (which uses futures to short the QQQ/NQ).

Don't fight the fed dude. There will be a time to be short. Right now is not it. Look at past times the Fed has flooded the market with liquidity - 1999 and 2010. The market ran hard for 6-8 months after that. You don't know how high this can go. Maybe at the end of this year you can look at getting short.

LWYRUP

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #59 on: September 01, 2020, 01:26:08 PM »
Tesla had a 5:1 stock split today, so people's TSLA holdings may look strange until accounts reflect all the changes.  The stock, formerly at $2200 per share, is being replaced by five times as many shares at $440 per share.  Don't panic!  :)
And it will be back to $2200 in a few days :)

Up 16% today to 514.75 (2573.75 pre split) !!!

I think a fair amount of this is individual investors who are excited about the prospect of getting "more shares."  The more charitable answer might be a runup due to S&P inclusion. 

PaulMaxime

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #60 on: September 01, 2020, 01:37:46 PM »
Given the above, I'm long SQQQ (which uses futures to short the QQQ/NQ).

I hope it's not too big a position. It could be a good way to hedge a portion of your portfolio if you are into that sort of thing, though.

TomTX

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #61 on: September 01, 2020, 02:03:14 PM »
Tesla had a 5:1 stock split today, so people's TSLA holdings may look strange until accounts reflect all the changes.  The stock, formerly at $2200 per share, is being replaced by five times as many shares at $440 per share.  Don't panic!  :)
And it will be back to $2200 in a few days :)

Up 16% today to 514.75 (2573.75 pre split) !!!

Huge crash today, all the way down to Monday morning levels... ;)

TomTX

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #62 on: September 01, 2020, 02:04:27 PM »
I think a fair amount of this is individual investors who are excited about the prospect of getting "more shares."  The more charitable answer might be a runup due to S&P inclusion.

I'm sure there's some retail investors piling on - but S&P inclusion is a big deal. Going to be a lot of shares bought for that.

bacchi

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #63 on: September 01, 2020, 02:19:33 PM »
Given the above, I'm long SQQQ (which uses futures to short the QQQ/NQ).

I hope it's not too big a position. It could be a good way to hedge a portion of your portfolio if you are into that sort of thing, though.

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

But hodedofome's probably right. I always short too early.

In at 20.50.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #64 on: September 01, 2020, 09:10:00 PM »
I would hope that Standard & Poors will be responsible with updating the S&P 500 to include TSLA.  Owing to it's $440 billion market cap, and the dramatic volatility right now, I would assume they create a "transition index" where TSLA is optionally included but not required.  That would allow S&P 500 funds to transition into shares of TSLA without being required to hold it at full market weight immediately.

Vanguard's S&P 500 fund and ETF has $550 billion in assets, and I'd guess TSLA would be about 1.5% of that total (it's slightly larger than JNJ, which is 1.4% of the S&P 500).  If Vanguard has 3 months to buy $8.3 billion of TSLA stock, it could easily fit it's purchases into much less than 1% of the daily volume.  The daily average trading volume for TSLA is $35 billion.
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vfiax
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA

simonsez

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #65 on: September 02, 2020, 12:11:01 PM »
Just want to state that I'm appreciative for all the info on Tesla as a whole and on EVs.  We are in a time of transition and while I might be years away from purchasing an EV, I'm glad there is a) a current leader b) competition/planned competition c) continued improvements (battery, AI, etc.).

One day my garage will have solar shingles on the top and within will be an EV.  Who knows if they will be Tesla branded or not but it is exciting and interesting to see how it will play out!

KungfuRabbit

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #66 on: September 02, 2020, 02:16:32 PM »
Honestly, please give me a good rebuttal to this, because I really truly don't understand why people care about range and charging time so much, its just silly. 
Which Tesla model do you have? Standard range or long range?

I have the long range all wheel drive model 3.  Stated range a little over 300 miles, filling up to 90% charge somewhere around 275 miles.  I find the mileage rating to be fairly accurate too, I get a little less when driving at 70mph with the windows down, I get a little more when driving 20-40mph through the city.  My daily commute is about 35 miles round trip, and a regular basis trips (visit friends, events, etc) are often up to 50 miles round trip - but as I said anything more than that is quite rare.  So honestly, even a 100 mile range car would have worked out just fine for me on all but about 2 or 3 days this past year.   

And yes, Tesla stock has been extremely chaotic lately, skyrocketing monday, dropping quickly yesterday and today.  Yes it might spike if its included in the S&P500, yes it will be volatile around battery day (up if impressive, down if a flop), etc, etc.  But I'm not a day trader or an options trader, so daily chaos really doesn't matter to me.  I'm holding because I think they are set up for growth over the next decade.  This is not stock advise, this is just what I'm personally doing.   

AdrianC

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #67 on: September 03, 2020, 08:42:09 AM »
Honestly, please give me a good rebuttal to this, because I really truly don't understand why people care about range and charging time so much, its just silly. 
Which Tesla model do you have? Standard range or long range?
I have the long range all wheel drive model 3.  Stated range a little over 300 miles, filling up to 90% charge somewhere around 275 miles.  I find the mileage rating to be fairly accurate too, I get a little less when driving at 70mph with the windows down, I get a little more when driving 20-40mph through the city.  My daily commute is about 35 miles round trip, and a regular basis trips (visit friends, events, etc) are often up to 50 miles round trip - but as I said anything more than that is quite rare.  So honestly, even a 100 mile range car would have worked out just fine for me on all but about 2 or 3 days this past year.   
I do a regular 300 mile each way trip. The last 90 miles is in rural Kentucky and Tennessee. Beautiful country. Or I could add 40 miles and take all interstate. No matter which route was taken, a Tesla would have to charge part way, wouldn't it? Or would you risk taking the scenic route without charging part way?

Electric cars are great, and Tesla is by far the leader in the field. We will get an electric in the next decade, I'm sure. But it won't be a $50k+ car, because we just don't value cars that much. I'd love for Tesla to come out with a hatchback or small SUV, with a reliable, all-weather range of 250 miles that competes with an equivalent gas car on price. Do you think they will? Or will Tesla always be a premium, luxury brand?

GreenEggs

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #68 on: September 04, 2020, 09:13:40 PM »
Wonder what happened with being included in the S&P 500?  Ouch!

TomTX

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #69 on: September 05, 2020, 08:49:28 AM »
I do a regular 300 mile each way trip. The last 90 miles is in rural Kentucky and Tennessee. Beautiful country. Or I could add 40 miles and take all interstate. No matter which route was taken, a Tesla would have to charge part way, wouldn't it? Or would you risk taking the scenic route without charging part way?
Model S has over 400 miles of range, should handle your trip just fine without charging along the way.

Or hold out for the Aptera which is supposed to hit 800 miles of range (it's a 2-seater enclosed 3-wheeler classed as a motorcycle)

bacchi

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #70 on: September 05, 2020, 10:39:28 AM »
Wonder what happened with being included in the S&P 500?  Ouch!

Someone on bogleheads explained the possible thinking of the S&P committee.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5477511#p5477511


tl;dr Including a stock with a PE of >1000, which would jump even higher when the funds start buying in, would give the S&P funds a really shitty year when the bubble pops.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #71 on: September 05, 2020, 02:13:30 PM »
Wonder what happened with being included in the S&P 500?  Ouch!

Someone on bogleheads explained the possible thinking of the S&P committee.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5477511#p5477511


tl;dr Including a stock with a PE of >1000, which would jump even higher when the funds start buying in, would give the S&P funds a really shitty year when the bubble pops.

That, plus the fact that their profit to date is almost entirely from finite, government-backed emissions credits and not the products that they make.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-eligibility-sp500-decision-puts-index-committee-in-real-bind-2020-8-1029528469#
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 02:16:06 PM by Paper Chaser »

TomTX

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #72 on: September 05, 2020, 04:42:43 PM »
Wonder what happened with being included in the S&P 500?  Ouch!

Someone on bogleheads explained the possible thinking of the S&P committee.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5477511#p5477511


tl;dr Including a stock with a PE of >1000, which would jump even higher when the funds start buying in, would give the S&P funds a really shitty year when the bubble pops.

That, plus the fact that their profit to date is almost entirely from finite, government-backed emissions credits and not the products that they make.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-eligibility-sp500-decision-puts-index-committee-in-real-bind-2020-8-1029528469#

Detractors have been making this complaint for a decade - and the profits from this just keep getting bigger.

FCA is paying Tesla 2 billion dollars to "pool" in the EU and meet emissions requirements - I believe that's across 3 years. It's not "government-backed"  - FCA is paying out of their own pocket to avoid even larger fines.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #73 on: September 05, 2020, 05:10:39 PM »
Wonder what happened with being included in the S&P 500?  Ouch!

Someone on bogleheads explained the possible thinking of the S&P committee.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5477511#p5477511


tl;dr Including a stock with a PE of >1000, which would jump even higher when the funds start buying in, would give the S&P funds a really shitty year when the bubble pops.

That, plus the fact that their profit to date is almost entirely from finite, government-backed emissions credits and not the products that they make.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-eligibility-sp500-decision-puts-index-committee-in-real-bind-2020-8-1029528469#

Detractors have been making this complaint for a decade - and the profits from this just keep getting bigger.

FCA is paying Tesla 2 billion dollars to "pool" in the EU and meet emissions requirements - I believe that's across 3 years. It's not "government-backed"  - FCA is paying out of their own pocket to avoid even larger fines.

All true. But so is what I typed. Government mandated emissions credits have been a huge part of every Tesla quarterly profit. And demand for those is likely to drop as other makers begin taking electrification more seriously. GM and FCA have been the largest buyers of Tesla's credits that we know of. Now, GM is diving deep into battery electrics, going so far as building a new battery production facility, and pledging 'zero emissions' as one of their corporate goals moving forward. They get less and less likely to need to buy credits as time goes on.

FCA just merged with PSA in Europe. PSA has some very successful small hybrids and EVs, and Jeep will be offering every model they sell with a hybrid, PHEV, or full EV variant within a couple of years. (They've been selling PHEVs in the EU and mild hybrids in the US for a few months now with more on the way). Again, the demand for Tesla's credits drops as a result.

And those credits are almost entirely profit for Tesla as they cost Tesla nothing. So a massively profitable part of their business, that exists entirely as a side effect of government regulations, is likely to see reduced demand moving forward. I think the argument that those facts could give the S&P some pause holds water when considered in addition to the point bacchi made above. If Tesla's P/E were more sane, perhaps the committee might've been able to overlook the credits. Or, maybe if they'd been posting large enough profits from vehicle sales that the credits are just icing on the cake, then maybe TSLA is in the S&P right now. But the credits/profit issue can't help if they were on the fence.

TomTX

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #74 on: September 05, 2020, 06:00:53 PM »

All true. But so is what I typed. Government mandated emissions credits have been a huge part of every Tesla quarterly profit. And demand for those is likely to drop as other makers begin taking electrification more seriously. GM and FCA have been the largest buyers of Tesla's credits that we know of. Now, GM is diving deep into battery electrics, going so far as building a new battery production facility, and pledging 'zero emissions' as one of their corporate goals moving forward. They get less and less likely to need to buy credits as time goes on.

FCA just merged with PSA in Europe. PSA has some very successful small hybrids and EVs, and Jeep will be offering every model they sell with a hybrid, PHEV, or full EV variant within a couple of years. (They've been selling PHEVs in the EU and mild hybrids in the US for a few months now with more on the way). Again, the demand for Tesla's credits drops as a result.

And those credits are almost entirely profit for Tesla as they cost Tesla nothing. So a massively profitable part of their business, that exists entirely as a side effect of government regulations, is likely to see reduced demand moving forward. I think the argument that those facts could give the S&P some pause holds water when considered in addition to the point bacchi made above. If Tesla's P/E were more sane, perhaps the committee might've been able to overlook the credits. Or, maybe if they'd been posting large enough profits from vehicle sales that the credits are just icing on the cake, then maybe TSLA is in the S&P right now. But the credits/profit issue can't help if they were on the fence.

One could make a very similar argument that no fossil vehicle profits should be counted either - as they're in the process of being banned all over the world and are seeing a massive drop in demand.

lemonlyman

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #75 on: September 05, 2020, 06:26:14 PM »

All true. But so is what I typed. Government mandated emissions credits have been a huge part of every Tesla quarterly profit.

They aren't mandated. Automakers have the option of purchasing excess credits from other automakers. If Tesla didn't produce its products, they couldn't sell them nor could others buy them. There have been many government programs that have benefited others automakers such as cash for clunkers, forgiven loans, and even bankruptcy. Of course any company is going to leverage what it can out of any business regulation that's beneficial. Using credit sales to fund growth and hit profit was a great strategy.

Tesla is outpacing the need for credits regardless. They're going to sell ~140k units this quarter far outpacing any quarter previously. Estimates for Q4 are leaning towards 185k units. They will still sell credits, but they aren't needed for profitability now.

Not all companies are added in the immediately subsequent quarter to the S&P. This is a big deal if you're trading Tesla. As an investor, I guess it hurts my 800% gain in the past year temporarily on Tuesday. So? Tesla will be added and assuming the committee's methods, for which Tesla can be added next week if they choose, is a waste of time. Tesla will be added. Picking the exact quarter is speculation.


Paper Chaser

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #76 on: September 05, 2020, 07:56:49 PM »

All true. But so is what I typed. Government mandated emissions credits have been a huge part of every Tesla quarterly profit. And demand for those is likely to drop as other makers begin taking electrification more seriously. GM and FCA have been the largest buyers of Tesla's credits that we know of. Now, GM is diving deep into battery electrics, going so far as building a new battery production facility, and pledging 'zero emissions' as one of their corporate goals moving forward. They get less and less likely to need to buy credits as time goes on.

FCA just merged with PSA in Europe. PSA has some very successful small hybrids and EVs, and Jeep will be offering every model they sell with a hybrid, PHEV, or full EV variant within a couple of years. (They've been selling PHEVs in the EU and mild hybrids in the US for a few months now with more on the way). Again, the demand for Tesla's credits drops as a result.

And those credits are almost entirely profit for Tesla as they cost Tesla nothing. So a massively profitable part of their business, that exists entirely as a side effect of government regulations, is likely to see reduced demand moving forward. I think the argument that those facts could give the S&P some pause holds water when considered in addition to the point bacchi made above. If Tesla's P/E were more sane, perhaps the committee might've been able to overlook the credits. Or, maybe if they'd been posting large enough profits from vehicle sales that the credits are just icing on the cake, then maybe TSLA is in the S&P right now. But the credits/profit issue can't help if they were on the fence.

One could make a very similar argument that no fossil vehicle profits should be counted either - as they're in the process of being banned all over the world and are seeing a massive drop in demand.

"Banned all over the world" is a bit of hyperbole, no? Many countries incentivize EVs to encourage their adoption, but they're not banning ICEs for decades. A few major cities have banned or heavily penalized combustion engines in their densest parts, but that's not really the same as "banned all over the world". What is pretty consistent around the world is that EV sales closely depend on government incentives. This indicates that EVs are still probably too expensive relative to a similar ICE to stand on their own demand, and that without those incentives, demand for most EVs falters.

To address your main point though, If a purely ICE upstart were up for inclusion in the S&P, I think your point is valid. The long term future for that tech is uncertain, and the S&P would probably have reasonable concern about adding said company to the index, especially if they weren't showing profits from their ICEs.

The existing companies that sell ICEs are generally profitable from those sales, and have been S&P regulars for a long time. Regardless of whether they pursue EVs or to what extent, they're likely to stay in the S&P until they're routinely unprofitable. In other words, getting into the index is harder than staying in.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #77 on: September 05, 2020, 08:23:59 PM »

All true. But so is what I typed. Government mandated emissions credits have been a huge part of every Tesla quarterly profit.

They aren't mandated. Automakers have the option of purchasing excess credits from other automakers. If Tesla didn't produce its products, they couldn't sell them nor could others buy them. There have been many government programs that have benefited others automakers such as cash for clunkers, forgiven loans, and even bankruptcy. Of course any company is going to leverage what it can out of any business regulation that's beneficial. Using credit sales to fund growth and hit profit was a great strategy.

Tesla is outpacing the need for credits regardless. They're going to sell ~140k units this quarter far outpacing any quarter previously. Estimates for Q4 are leaning towards 185k units. They will still sell credits, but they aren't needed for profitability now.

Not all companies are added in the immediately subsequent quarter to the S&P. This is a big deal if you're trading Tesla. As an investor, I guess it hurts my 800% gain in the past year temporarily on Tuesday. So? Tesla will be added and assuming the committee's methods, for which Tesla can be added next week if they choose, is a waste of time. Tesla will be added. Picking the exact quarter is speculation.

The credits are a direct result of government regulations. The US government basically says that the more mature companies must choose to either invest in their own EVs while $/kWh remains super high and profit margins remain low, or they can buy some credits from Tesla. I assure you there's a lot of math being done to determine which path makes the most sense for their shareholders. It's worked out in Tesla's favor thus far, but I think we're approaching a tipping point. Now that demand seems to be increasing, and $/kWh is decreasing, we're seeing more OEMs choosing to invest in EVs rather than continue to buy the credits. That's going to reduce Tesla's juiciest line item.

I've heard that Tesla has great margins per vehicle, and that the only reason they don't post massive profits all the time is that they're investing in the business. That may be true. But the quarterly reports are the quarterly reports, and those have shown little or no profit outside of the credits. If they consistently show profits on their vehicles like a traditional automaker, then I think S&P inclusion is a certainty. If they choose to continue to grow the business, and eschew profits other than the credits, then I think it's fair for the S&P committee to question Tesla's inclusion.

Not sure what your individual position in TSLA has to do with anything other than bragging. Past performance does not equal future performance. I'm an indexer, so I don't bother with individual stocks. I'm not shorting anything, and I'm not losing sleep because I didn't buy tesla stock 6 months ago on a hunch. I have little or nothing to gain from TSLA's performance (either way) unless it's included in the S&P. I do think that sometimes people get a bit rose colored and irrational when they've picked a stock that does well. That's how irrational exuberance works. Tesla isn't perfect. Lots of people that hold it come up with tons of reasons why it's never going to drop. Some are valid and some IMO are not. I'm just trying to provide an alternative perspective that may be a bit more unbiased than what the cheerleaders keep chanting.

LWYRUP

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #78 on: September 06, 2020, 07:09:24 AM »
To be clear, Waymo maps places ahead of time so they know many of the basics (topography, speed limits, intersections, etc), but the vehicles are then put into those scenarios and expected to navigate them (and any obstacles or weather conditions) within the map on their own. They've had Level 4 Autonomous driving on public roads without a safety driver since 2017.

Tesla isn't bothering with mapping, and is relying on the vehicles to figure it all out on the fly. Anytime, anywhere as far as I know. This data is then beamed back to the mother ship and used to grow their AI which will eventually be released as their "Full Self Driving" software package. They're Level 2 at this point though.


Yep, I've always thought that if the car can drive while I sit in a recliner with my legs up reading a book, that would be great.  But if I have to sit with my hands on the wheel staring at the road ready to assist at any moment, there's no point.   I either drive or I don't.

I wonder when I'll be able to buy a fully autonomous car at an affordable price.

So when an average person talks about "Self driving", they're probably talking about Level 4 autonomy where the vehicle does everything on it's own. Waymo's ahead in that regard.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2020, 11:03:42 AM by LWYRUP »

GreenEggs

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #79 on: September 06, 2020, 10:35:58 AM »
It seems that there are a number of cars that do basically self-drive out on the open interstate highways.  They are able to stay centered in their lane & the cruise control keeps them a safe distance from the car ahead. 


I've never driven one, but they've been available for a couple of years. 


That seems like a great technology for cross country traveling and long trips.

AdrianC

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #80 on: September 07, 2020, 08:47:54 AM »
I do a regular 300 mile each way trip. The last 90 miles is in rural Kentucky and Tennessee. Beautiful country. Or I could add 40 miles and take all interstate. No matter which route was taken, a Tesla would have to charge part way, wouldn't it? Or would you risk taking the scenic route without charging part way?
Model S has over 400 miles of range, should handle your trip just fine without charging along the way.

Or hold out for the Aptera which is supposed to hit 800 miles of range (it's a 2-seater enclosed 3-wheeler classed as a motorcycle)
Poor wording on my part. I was interested if KungFuRabbit would risk taking the scenic route without part way charging in their Model 3. I expect, not, because 300 miles is too close to the EPA range. The first 210 miles are highway, 75-80mph, lots of hills. The last 90 miles are rural with no super chargers en route.

Iím not going to pay $50k for a Model 3, so Iím certainly not interested in a $75k Model S.

TomTX

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #81 on: September 07, 2020, 09:53:54 AM »
I do a regular 300 mile each way trip. The last 90 miles is in rural Kentucky and Tennessee. Beautiful country. Or I could add 40 miles and take all interstate. No matter which route was taken, a Tesla would have to charge part way, wouldn't it? Or would you risk taking the scenic route without charging part way?
Model S has over 400 miles of range, should handle your trip just fine without charging along the way.

Or hold out for the Aptera which is supposed to hit 800 miles of range (it's a 2-seater enclosed 3-wheeler classed as a motorcycle)
Poor wording on my part. I was interested if KungFuRabbit would risk taking the scenic route without part way charging in their Model 3. I expect, not, because 300 miles is too close to the EPA range. The first 210 miles are highway, 75-80mph, lots of hills. The last 90 miles are rural with no super chargers en route.

Iím not going to pay $50k for a Model 3, so Iím certainly not interested in a $75k Model S.

And that's fine. They're too expensive for me as well.

Until a few years ago, if you wanted a full-range BEV your choices were basically Model S or Model X. Now there is considerably more choice, and vehicles at lower price points.

I expect this trend to continue, and BEVs will make sense for more and more users. They're far less than 1% of the current vehicle fleet, so even addressing 10% of the market is fine for a few years.

rocketpj

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #82 on: September 07, 2020, 05:43:49 PM »
TSLA was the last individual stock I sold when I moved 100% into ETFs.  I made about $100/share on them at the time, which felt ok.  As it turned out I should have held them.   Shrug.

AdrianC

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #83 on: September 08, 2020, 11:33:45 AM »
savagegeese has his Model 3 review up:

Tesla Model 3 | Explaining the Cult
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPEWaBYj4lA

"We review the Tesla Model 3 Standard Plus to detail the good and bad of this top-selling EV.
The arguments for and against battery powered vehicles will continue to rage on, we judge this Model 3 as a car
and explain the cult-like following behind Elon Musk's "Do or Die" volume product."

marty998

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #84 on: September 08, 2020, 11:16:44 PM »
It seems that there are a number of cars that do basically self-drive out on the open interstate highways.  They are able to stay centered in their lane & the cruise control keeps them a safe distance from the car ahead. 

I've never driven one, but they've been available for a couple of years. 

That seems like a great technology for cross country traveling and long trips.

Bus has entered the chat.

/s

Kudos to all you true believers. Been one hell of a ride to watch so far.

lemonlyman

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #85 on: September 10, 2020, 10:03:59 AM »
Not sure what your individual position in TSLA has to do with anything other than bragging. Past performance does not equal future performance. I'm an indexer, so I don't bother with individual stocks. I'm not shorting anything, and I'm not losing sleep because I didn't buy tesla stock 6 months ago on a hunch. I have little or nothing to gain from TSLA's performance (either way) unless it's included in the S&P. I do think that sometimes people get a bit rose colored and irrational when they've picked a stock that does well. That's how irrational exuberance works. Tesla isn't perfect. Lots of people that hold it come up with tons of reasons why it's never going to drop. Some are valid and some IMO are not. I'm just trying to provide an alternative perspective that may be a bit more unbiased than what the cheerleaders keep chanting.
.

I mentioned my gain because, as a long term investor, I don't care that S&P inclusion didn't happen this quarter. It doesn't affect why I invest; it's just a bonus. It's silly to base an investment thesis around that short term. Fluctuations in the stock happen and I can't predict what will happen next week, but I can estimate earnings 5 years on and discount to make a valuation. I don't look at the income statement and think, "Oh, gee, credits again!" I look at the income statement and see controlled operating expenses for 5 quarters under massive growth. I see expected volume of 140,000 units this quarter and 180,000 units in Q4, both of which would lead to profitability regardless of regulatory credits. 20% Auto GP excluding credits with an 55% increase in volume from Q2 and controlled operating expenses should lead to profit without credits. So Q3 financials for this year will be instructive long term. I'm prepared to cut the investment if what's going on in the company fails or changes for the worse. Currently, I see 2 new factories under construction for completion this next year drastically raising that volume in 2021/2022. That's all after the battery improvements currently underway that we'll learn about on 9/22. I admit it does look pretty rosy through the glasses right now.

The Lucid Air looks great. That's a strong S competitor.


CarlosMontegro

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #86 on: September 10, 2020, 12:11:19 PM »
All the TSLA fans here are completely ignoring the fact, that no matter how FAST Tesla grows, their market cap has priced in the size of Toyota and Volkswagen COMBINED.  It doesn't matter how fast you get there.  There's a ceiling, and they are priced at the ceiling.  So if everything goes perfectly, you'd still expect a flat stock price.

Edit to add - the idea that two shiny new factories and a 55% increase in vehicle delivery comes anywhere close to justifying the market cap is fantasy.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 12:13:16 PM by Montecarlo »

lemonlyman

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #87 on: September 10, 2020, 01:04:43 PM »
All the TSLA fans here are completely ignoring the fact, that no matter how FAST Tesla grows, their market cap has priced in the size of Toyota and Volkswagen COMBINED.  It doesn't matter how fast you get there.  There's a ceiling, and they are priced at the ceiling.  So if everything goes perfectly, you'd still expect a flat stock price.

Edit to add - the idea that two shiny new factories and a 55% increase in vehicle delivery comes anywhere close to justifying the market cap is fantasy.

You got me. I totally forgot VW and Toyota were companies in the real world. Shoot. Years of research down the drain. Better sell Amazon too. It's worth more than Walmart, KMart, and Target combined.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #88 on: September 10, 2020, 11:05:06 PM »
All the TSLA fans here are completely ignoring the fact, that no matter how FAST Tesla grows, their market cap has priced in the size of Toyota and Volkswagen COMBINED.  It doesn't matter how fast you get there.  There's a ceiling, and they are priced at the ceiling.  So if everything goes perfectly, you'd still expect a flat stock price.

Edit to add - the idea that two shiny new factories and a 55% increase in vehicle delivery comes anywhere close to justifying the market cap is fantasy.

Folks have been making this overvalued, perfection is already priced in argument since I first invested in Tesla in 2013. Fortunately, I didnít wait for a growth companyís stock price to reflect its current production value or I would have missed out on over 500% in gains in 7 years waiting for that.

Saying VW or Toyota is a better investment than Tesla is today is like saying a livery stable was a better investment than Ford Motor company in 1915 because the livery stable sold 100 horses for every Model T Ford sold that year. How could you possibly pay more for the Ford stock given the fundamentals?

Focusing strictly on the number of cars sold ignores the fact that Tesla is primarily a technology company that makes EVs, but is also the leader in battery technology and manufacturing, utility scale energy storage, and autonomous driving tech. Tesla is disrupting three trillion dollar industries (oil & gas, transportation, and power utilities). Keep touting the legacy ICE manufacturerís declining sales compared to Teslaís rapidly growing production and sales and weíll check back in 5 years.

CarlosMontegro

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #89 on: September 11, 2020, 05:56:44 AM »


You got me. I totally forgot VW and Toyota were companies in the real world. Shoot. Years of research down the drain. Better sell Amazon too. It's worth more than Walmart, KMart, and Target combined.

I'm not sure why you included Kmart, who is privately held, hemoragging money, and down to only 34 stores.  Doesn't seem to help your cause that you included an Amazon victim in your list.

Regardless, Amazon doesn't have near the ceiling problem that TSLA has.  But I'm still not going to bet on them being the world leader in retail forever and ever.

CarlosMontegro

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #90 on: September 11, 2020, 05:59:40 AM »
@ColoradoTribe

I never said VW or Toyota is a better investment than TSLA.
I never touted ICE over EV.

You're putting words in my mouth and using that to formulate a strawman argument.  You owe me an apology.

ctuser1

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #91 on: September 11, 2020, 07:59:29 AM »
I think Tesla bulls and bears are talking past each other.

Please note that the bull case is not ludicrous:
1. TSLA is at a competitive advantage over it's electric car peers.
2. There is a good probability that TSLA will gain competitive advantage in the entire car market sometime in the next decade. If you question this, consider that this is just a 2X price improvement away and that almost always happens in a new technology.
3. Once #2 happens + new technological advances like self driving, entire new market sectors get created out of thin air. There is no current market area where to capture this valuation.
4. This is likely just a jumping point for Musk to other, much more consequential industries. IF total ownership cost of grid-scale batteries go down by another 10X to 20X with Tesla at the driver's seat, then the entire energy sector becomes it's oyster.

If all of these go according to the plan the bulls have set, the TSLA should indeed be much more valuable than even AAPL, and not one-eighth of it's market cap.

While the above position is not ludicrous, I think it is underestimating the risks associated with each such step. Musk has shows that he is able to take huge risks and somehow can use his star power to avert disasters. Each step in this process would involve huge capital allocation, and a risk that either an upstart upstages TSLA at innovation or someone like AAPL just outspends them to that competitive edge. Remember the cash crunch Musk had a couple of years ago? These crunches will keep coming for the next 15 years for Musk to keep this trajectory going, a necessity to justify the bull case.

Betting on a specific player to be able to continually innovate is a risky one. Doubly so when such innovation will always require massive piles of cash to be sacrificed at all stages.

Because of this TSLA is really a binary case. If you believe that Musk will keep the same trajectory going for another 20 years, then it is worth a whole lot more than even it's current stock price. If not, it will likely not be worth any more than a tenth or twentieth of it's current price.

I, personally don't do such investments. But I can see particularly bold (but rational) investors betting their play money on such speculative moonshot investments.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #92 on: September 11, 2020, 09:38:18 AM »
Focusing strictly on the number of cars sold ignores the fact that Tesla is primarily a technology company that makes EVs
The problem is, they kind of suck at making cars, which is ultimately what people are giving them money for. There are tons of examples of Tesla rushing vehicles out the door without proper validation. They instead try to apply quick-fix bandaids that wouldn't make it out the door at more established car companies. They tend to correct some of their faults over time, but they also find new ways to screw stuff up when new models are released. Here's an interesting thread from Model Y owners:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/found-this-little-gem-on-my-55k-model-y.205922/

First of all, the fix discussed in that thread is absurd, especially for a $55k vehicle. But the more telling thing is that an owner of a brand new $55k vehicle was so disappointed with the way the body panels fit together that he took it upon himself to disassemble most of the vehicle and fix them himself.

but (Tesla) is also the leader in battery technology and manufacturing

I concede that they lead in battery production (volume) thanks in part to Panasonic. But by what metric do you consider them to be leading battery tech? Is it just because they've told you that they're the leader? There are several EVs with better miles/kwh from companies making their first EVs. Porsche has made a more robust battery with their very first EV that performs more consistently over time. Lucid has a battery that's more compact and efficient thanks to their participation in Formula E (a series that Tesla should absolutely be in if they're leading in battery tech right?).


is also the leader in.... autonomous driving tech.


Like battery tech, what metric are you using to determine that Tesla is the leader in autonomous tech? Waymo has been 2 levels of automation higher on public roads since 2017. Tesla's tech (which again is a couple of levels less advanced than Waymo's) is involved in high profile accidents a few times per year. How many accidents do you hear about from Waymo? Or Cruise? If you want to compare it to other Level 2 autonomous systems, then GM's SuperCruise has a batter safety record. Tesla's autonomous approach requires customers to beta test on public roads, in hopes that they'll gather enough raw data to overcome Waymo's massive lead. The tech is easier for customers to misuse than their direct competition, and that results in high profile accidents a couple of times per year. Those high profile accidents are damaging to the public perception of autonomous driving and I'd argue they're likely to lead to legislation at some point that will slow the adoption of autonomous tech. If you're the leader in a tech, you don't need to use the general public to beta test your product. You don't have high profile accidents either. If autonomous driving is ever going to make it to wide spread adoption, it's going to have to be considered "safe" by drivers and legislators, and that's hard to sell when they see Tesla's on autopilot ramming into large, stationary objects on the news.

sixwings

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Re: Please teach me about TSLA
« Reply #93 on: September 13, 2020, 09:29:51 AM »
I think Tesla bulls and bears are talking past each other.

Please note that the bull case is not ludicrous:
1. TSLA is at a competitive advantage over it's electric car peers.
2. There is a good probability that TSLA will gain competitive advantage in the entire car market sometime in the next decade. If you question this, consider that this is just a 2X price improvement away and that almost always happens in a new technology.
3. Once #2 happens + new technological advances like self driving, entire new market sectors get created out of thin air. There is no current market area where to capture this valuation.
4. This is likely just a jumping point for Musk to other, much more consequential industries. IF total ownership cost of grid-scale batteries go down by another 10X to 20X with Tesla at the driver's seat, then the entire energy sector becomes it's oyster.

If all of these go according to the plan the bulls have set, the TSLA should indeed be much more valuable than even AAPL, and not one-eighth of it's market cap.

While the above position is not ludicrous, I think it is underestimating the risks associated with each such step. Musk has shows that he is able to take huge risks and somehow can use his star power to avert disasters. Each step in this process would involve huge capital allocation, and a risk that either an upstart upstages TSLA at innovation or someone like AAPL just outspends them to that competitive edge. Remember the cash crunch Musk had a couple of years ago? These crunches will keep coming for the next 15 years for Musk to keep this trajectory going, a necessity to justify the bull case.

Betting on a specific player to be able to continually innovate is a risky one. Doubly so when such innovation will always require massive piles of cash to be sacrificed at all stages.

Because of this TSLA is really a binary case. If you believe that Musk will keep the same trajectory going for another 20 years, then it is worth a whole lot more than even it's current stock price. If not, it will likely not be worth any more than a tenth or twentieth of it's current price.

I, personally don't do such investments. But I can see particularly bold (but rational) investors betting their play money on such speculative moonshot investments.

I really like this post. I agree with you, including your final perspective 100%. TSLA has so much potential, they could challenge major energy industries and become a major energy producer. The vision Musk has laid out is far more than just electric automobile production. But a lot has to go right to get there. If it does then that will be amazing for the people who have been investing today.