The Money Mustache Community

Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: MoneyCat on December 02, 2014, 08:22:08 AM

Title: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: MoneyCat on December 02, 2014, 08:22:08 AM
I just maxed out my Roth IRA for the year with a big lump sum and I am being told by investing professionals that I am making a huge mistake.  They are telling me that I should have waited because the stock market bubble is about to pop and everyone is about to take a big loss.  Did I screw up here?
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Poopsio on December 02, 2014, 08:27:33 AM
you have until april 2015 to put money into the stock market in a roth ira for 2014.

putting cash into a roth IRA is one of the best things you can do with your money.

nobody can predict the future but i wouldn't worry about it. if you're in it for the long term it wasn't a mistake.

it may go up further by then because gas prices are set to nosedive which is essentially an economic stimulus.

i think you did the right thing and you shouldn't worry about it and should move onto the next thing you need to do.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: PloddingInsight on December 02, 2014, 08:29:57 AM
If you can't afford a 50% loss of the money you invest in stocks, you are making a mistake.  But that is always true.

The "professionals" are full of baloney.  Ask them how much of their personal asset allocation is currently tied up in shorting the market.  I'm guessing not much.  If they could time the market they wouldn't have earn a living as an "investing professional".
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: RichMoose on December 02, 2014, 08:58:35 AM
I would invest lump-sum right now. No one knows the future. If you look back on the Investor Alley you will see these same concerns and questions when the S&P 500 hit 1700, then again at 1850, when it hit 2000 people for sure thought it was going down as part of the "October Crash", and now its sitting at 2060. Those who sat and waited at those times lost some tidy returns.

Read all the articles of this: http://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/  It will calm your nerves before you make the plunge. :)
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: jamal utah on December 02, 2014, 09:34:25 AM
I've missed out on some serious investment dollars trying to time the market before.   Its probably better just to get it in the market and let the money start working for you.  In the future, I would suggest spreading out your investments to get the benefit of dollar cost averaging.  Nonetheless, I wouldn't worry about it too much.   In the end you couldn't have invested more than $5,500, so you'll be fine.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Dodge on December 02, 2014, 09:38:15 AM
If you're day trading, or planning to keep the money in for only a few months, then yes stay out of the market. That I agree with.

But I will agree with that statement, no matter what the market looks like :)

If you're investing for 5+ years, put in everything you can. What's the alternative? Holding cash? Buying more toys? Taking on even riskier investments?

Ignore the noise.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: senecando on December 02, 2014, 09:43:43 AM
I just maxed out my Roth IRA for the year with a big lump sum and I am being told by investing professionals that I am making a huge mistake.  They are telling me that I should have waited because the stock market bubble is about to pop and everyone is about to take a big loss.  Did I screw up here?

I wouldn't trust professionals who think losing, what, 30 percent of 5k is a "huge mistake". You'll be fine. And the money will be there when you come back for it. (I just put 2k into my Roth yesterday, when I realized it was already December.)
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: dcheesi on December 02, 2014, 09:44:15 AM
I let a stock trading buddy talk me out of a lump-sum investment using this exact argument --two years ago.  By the time I wised up, I had missed some huge gains, and my buddy had lost his shirt betting against the market.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Mr.Chipper77 on December 02, 2014, 09:44:27 AM
If your long term put in sooner than later...
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Cpa Cat on December 02, 2014, 09:53:29 AM
If you actually saw shapes moving in their crystal balls, then they're totally legit. If there were no shapes, then they were shams and have no contact with the spirit world.

If they used other methods of divining, such as tea leaves or animal entrails, then only trust them if you witnessed evidence of telekinesis. It's not enough if they just spoke in tongues and had a seizure.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: UnleashHell on December 02, 2014, 10:05:05 AM
If you actually saw shapes moving in their crystal balls, then they're totally legit. If there were no shapes, then they were shams and have no contact with the spirit world.

If they used other methods of divining, such as tea leaves or animal entrails, then only trust them if you witnessed evidence of telekinesis. It's not enough if they just spoke in tongues and had a seizure.

only time I made money with a crystal ball was when I sold it at a yard sale.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Datastache on December 02, 2014, 11:34:22 AM
Yeah, ignore the hand-wringing. If you've already put the lump sum in, let it stay there. If the "professionals" are right, you'll take a loss in the near future. So what? That money isn't for the near future. You're in it for the long haul, and in the long haul, it is buying and holding that has always been the most reliable way to win.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: hodedofome on December 02, 2014, 02:46:11 PM
You should not be making investing decisions based on other people's opinions. The only way you'll stick with a methodology is if you do your homework and come up with the decisions on your own.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: libertarian4321 on December 02, 2014, 03:30:27 PM
I just maxed out my Roth IRA for the year with a big lump sum and I am being told by investing professionals that I am making a huge mistake.  They are telling me that I should have waited because the stock market bubble is about to pop and everyone is about to take a big loss.  Did I screw up here?

I was told the same thing by an "investment professional" in the summer of 1987 when the DOW was at an astronomical high of ~2,200.

I invested anyway. 

Two months later, the DOW fell to 1,700.  I was devastated.  I "lost" a huge amount of money.

Oh, wait, no I didn't. 

I left my money in the market.  The Dow is now at 17,800.  That "crash" that looked like the end of the world at the time is a barely noticeable blip on the charts now.

I should have dollar cost averaged, rather than going lump sum, but I now realize it's a bad idea to listen to "investment professionals" who think they can "time" the market, because they can't.

There is ALWAYS some "guru" saying "don't invest" or "get out of the market."  Once in a while, some of them get it right in the short term.  It's kind of like the broken clock that gets the time right twice a day.  But NONE of them get it right in the long term.

I chose to invest steadily over the long-term, avoiding the market timing advice.  I'm now a multimillionaire.  The "investment professionals" who tried to give me the bad market timing advice are NOT.

Remember, that "investment professional" just has to pass a test (Series 6 or 7), he could have no investing experience, and a net worth of ZERO (or below).

Even for the certifications that do require that the "investment professional" have a positive net worth, the requirements are typically ridiculously low ($35k).

Don't think of "investment professionals" as people who know about money or investing, because many do not.  Most "investment professionals" are nothing more than salesmen, no different from the guy who pounces on you the second you drive onto a car lot.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: astvilla on December 03, 2014, 05:28:01 AM
OP i have same worries as you. I am young and not only did i max out Roth IRA, I have contributions to VINIX and just put money in fidelity spartan funds in taxable account and I feel I should market time as well. While long-term you shouldn't worry, it'd be a gamble to wait it out and miss out gains as well. Though I know next to nothing about economics and observe the noise to get some idea of influences on the market, to me it doesn't seem we are on path to sustainability and i believe there's a big bubble coming up.

Yeah im sorta one of those believers in a bubble, i wasn't around to call bubbles in 2011-12 (i think people mistook poor economy as recovering from recession) but a bubble is coming sooner than later i think. a growing number of people i know in my age group have difficulty finding work in a field once touted as a great career, now there's calls for a bubble and high unemployment in my career which is already happening. healthcare field as a whole is bubbling with soaring student debt and many professionals like nurses unable to find work though baby boomers and ACA blunted unemployment a little, it doesn't keep pace with supply of healthcare students entering field. Some research articles in academic journals are already sounding alarms. In the end, it'd probably be like law school where some schools are closing and students are bargaining tuition down because they have leverage. healthcare jobs are no longer what it used to be though much better than other fields too. wages are flat too not helping to solve problem. market maybe going up because 1% have more free money to invest and speculate than ever. gas prices down, stimulate economy?! Illegal immigrants will drain us! North Korea will start war! Russia started war (what happened since then?), QE is gone, market is fake propped up by the Fed, Wall St (those insiders) are giving less bonuses to employees, etc etc.

Lot of noise, some of it very concerning and very true, some not worth it, and concerning is long-term growth especially w/some students with 200k debt and no asset to collect unlike housing. auto loans are now creeping up to. despite globalization, lack of jobs, un/underemployment, huge backlog of students competing for jobs with students who can't find any, flat wages, increasing gap, for all the facts that are true and bad and will bite us, my thinking is that this money i'm not touching anyway and i wasn't going to do anything w/it anyway. if market goes down, i'll just plow my cash and bonds back to stock anyways and ride the next wave up. i'm in this for long haul, why do i care about a bubble coming up? Only care about bubble if losing your job so focus on that. your job will bring in more $$ and peace to mind than ROI so focus on career. if you're too old though then yeah you're pretty screwed. I read a 38 yr old healthcare manager lost 150k/yr job, single family income, kids, no savings, will last a year before bankruptcy, can't find job b/c too old and so many young students, so it's really important to SAVE because soon with so many students, 40 will be the new 55!
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: El Limon on December 03, 2014, 06:22:34 AM
Maxing out your ROTH IRA is always a good idea, but if you're uncomfortable putting it all in stocks, why not balance it out with safer investments (short-term bonds, CDs, or even just cash). Your asset allocation should match your comfort level so you don't panic and bailout when downturns come.     
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Fuzzy Buttons on December 03, 2014, 12:40:44 PM
I've had my retirement investments in 100% stocks for twenty years.  Just last month, I moved 35% of that to long term bonds, and 25% to short term bonds (essentially cash).  But I didn't do this because I thought this allocation would perform better next year.  In fact, with interest rates at historic lows and the Fed poised to raise them, I expect the long term bonds to lose value.  I expect the stocks to keep going up.  And I expect the cash to sit there and lose buying power to inflation.

I did this because what I expect and what is going to happen have about a snowball's chance in hell of being the same thing.  I did this because over the past few months I've been thinking about my asset allocation and determined that 100% stocks no longer made sense for my situation.  It was making me stressed hoping that I'd get high returns and not hit a low point right when I want to retire.  More than that, I realized that by cutting my spending and increasing my savings, I didn't even need those high returns.  What I needed was modest returns with lower volatility.  So I researched and reached a decision on an allocation that I believe will do that for me, and I made the change.

The point is, I made the change when it was the right time for me, and didn't try to guess if it was the right time for the market.  So ask yourself, is this the right time for you to put more money in stocks?  If so (and if you don't plan to withdraw that roth money for many years, then I suspect the answer is 'Yes'), then do it.  And if it drops tomorrow, it was still the right decision.  Hindsight be damned.  :)
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: gillstone on December 03, 2014, 01:02:14 PM
http://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/20110626.gif (http://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/20110626.gif)

Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: UnleashHell on December 03, 2014, 01:30:36 PM
I’m much more confident investing in the market with “people” telling me it’s a bubble than I would be with “people” telling me I must invest in tech/oil/gold/pork bellies or whatever else they have heard from friends/uncles/hairdressers/aunt Jessies cat.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: surfhb on December 03, 2014, 10:24:20 PM
I assume youre just starting to invest?   If so,  a major stock market crash like the one in 2008 would be a gift from heaven  !!

http://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/04/29/stocks-part-iv-the-big-ugly-event/
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: scrubbyfish on December 03, 2014, 10:28:07 PM
I'm freaking out a bit, too, so jumping into this thread. I think the essence of the question is similar enough. (Is it, or should I remove this post and start a new thread?) I'm taking comfort from the answers given to the OP so far.

I have never, ever known what my investments are doing. I have been asking myself to learn, to pay attention, and to move to low-fee ETFs at Waterhouse, using the Canadian Couch Potato model. In the process of doing this, with one of my investment accounts newly moved to Waterhouse but not yet moved into the ultimate plan, I see a horrible looking chart (attached) on my Waterhouse page. I am assuming this relates to the headlines about oil.

Is there the point where I'm supposed to: breathe, keep calm, move nothing, sell nothing, change nothing? Or am I actually supposed to be doing something to help myself?

This money is a longterm investment -I won't be taking anything out for 10-20 years. I just plan to put it into one of the Couch Potato models. Here's where it is right now:

BMO Mo High Income II
BMO Mo Market
BMO BND
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: wtjbatman on December 03, 2014, 10:42:45 PM
Scrubbyfish, your problem isn't the market, it's those shitty funds and their horrendous fees. You can't compare bond and income funds with 2.5% fees to an S&P 500 benchmark.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: scrubbyfish on December 03, 2014, 11:00:35 PM
Scrubbyfish, your problem isn't the market, it's those shitty funds and their horrendous fees. You can't compare bond and income funds with 2.5% fees to an S&P 500 benchmark.

Oh. Sadly, this is not even the worst of my accounts. (This isn't the one some of us developed horror over on another thread many moons ago.) So, besides getting all my accounts into the CCP models, is there anything else I should be doing right now?
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: randersonnw on December 04, 2014, 12:09:34 AM
Not for nothing, because no one knows Shit I believe, but it seems there is a lot of fear about the market. Maybe that's a good thing. It is good also for buy/hold investors if there's a down turn because we get cheaper investments for a while. Win/Win?
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: matchewed on December 04, 2014, 06:16:48 AM
Scrubbyfish, your problem isn't the market, it's those shitty funds and their horrendous fees. You can't compare bond and income funds with 2.5% fees to an S&P 500 benchmark.

Oh. Sadly, this is not even the worst of my accounts. (This isn't the one some of us developed horror over on another thread many moons ago.) So, besides getting all my accounts into the CCP models, is there anything else I should be doing right now?

Yeah, writing an Investment Policy Statement, (http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement) moving your funds to the ones you outline in your IPS. Preferably low cost index funds that reflect your asset allocation.

There are things within your control (fees/expense ratios you pay, how much you save...etc.) and things you can't control (what the market will do tomorrow). Focus and work on the former not the latter. It is that simple (note simple != easy). Worrying about what the market will do in regards to your CCP model while you're pissing away money in the form of expense ratios is like worrying about whether it'll rain tomorrow while your faucet has sprung a nasty leak. One you can do something about the other not so much.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: scrubbyfish on December 04, 2014, 08:24:51 AM
Thanks, matchewed. I like that IPS link/concept! I will absolutely do that, as well as continue my process of moving all the fee-heavy accounts to low-fee CCP ones.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: wtjbatman on December 04, 2014, 08:49:59 AM
I have no idea what this canadian couch potato thing is you keep talking about, but regardless, the ultimate key to your future investment success will be (as matchewed pointed out) moving your investments from those high fee funds to lower cost index funds with fees of <.20%. These funds should match your desired asset allocation (stock/bond mix).
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: scrubbyfish on December 04, 2014, 09:00:32 AM
wtjbatman: Yeah, that's what CCP said :)  http://canadiancouchpotato.com/model-portfolios/

I've been in the process of moving things while also setting up other accounts. My advantage has been (excellent saving and) that my child's disability makes him eligible for a 300% government match on contributions (to a certain amount, but still lots) in some account types; my disadvantage is that I didn't know anything when we got that and other accounts and just did what the bank and other salespeople said to do. The latter is the error I've been working to correct, but even CCP -promoter of simple, low-fee, DIY- said my situation is for several reasons quite complex, and that their standard advice cannot be applied in my case. I'm seeing this week if I can figure out the rest and if I can't, I'm going with CCP's service.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: DarinC on December 04, 2014, 07:49:31 PM
If you're really cautious it's probably a good idea to change the distribution of your investments, since the dollar's stronger and the P/E10 is highish, but I wouldn't let your money idle in a low interest account or anything.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: MoneyCat on December 05, 2014, 07:03:01 PM
Thanks for all the replies.  I guess I've been feeling a little nervous because I earned over 2% on my investments in the past month, which pretty much blew my mind and now I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.  I guess I should remind myself that I'm in this for the long haul, so if I take a beating in the near term it'll all wash out in the end.  I'm pretty new to investing, so I'm still figuring stuff out.  Up to this point, all I did was hoard cash, but after reading some books and participating in the forum I realized that I was not putting the money to its best use.  I'm still working away from the mindset that investing is like gambling.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Datastache on December 05, 2014, 07:36:28 PM
In the short term, investing really does feel like gambling. If you've the stomach for it, you can watch your assets climb and fall, climb and fall, over and over again, with no readily apparent cause or direction. But as you said, if you can remind yourself that you're in this for the long haul, you won't need to worry about temporary plunges. The other shoe will drop sooner or later - you'll see big losses at some point, guaranteed. But if you just hold on for the ride, those plunges always reverse direction and you end up with even more wealth than you had just before the crash. It's the way the market works, and it greatly rewards those who can just manage to suck it up and keep their holdings through thick and thin.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: scrubbyfish on December 05, 2014, 07:38:26 PM
Right with you, MoneyCat! And there's lots of us like you here. We're confused, scared, lost...Yes, viewing any investing as akin to gambling. A new paradigm for us, and a steep learning curve. I sure appreciate you posting your concerns, as they certainly matched mine. You're not alone, and you're in a wonderful community for moving forward at whatever pace and increment is right for you.

This weekend I'm going to be drafting my Investment Policy Statement as suggested by matchewed.

Take care.
Title: .
Post by: This_Is_My_Username on December 06, 2014, 04:47:05 AM
They are telling me that I should have waited because the stock market bubble is about to pop and everyone is about to take a big loss.  Did I screw up here?

Ask them to show your their brokerage account with hundreds of thousands of dollars of short-sells.

That will shut them up real fast. 
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: samuck on December 06, 2014, 08:50:45 AM
People told me last year I should not get started. Luckily, I began investing month by month anyway
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Abe on December 06, 2014, 07:42:36 PM
I generally ignore all investment advice from people who have any financial incentive to advise you. I have nothing to gain from suggesting that in the long-term your decision to invest was a good one barring the collapse of western civilization. In the short-term, forget that money ever existed and go on with your life. You can see it again when you retire. 
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: MoneyCat on December 10, 2014, 06:40:06 PM
I sure hope this oil thing gets settled soon because I lost all the gains I made in my first month with the IRA and then some.  This is where I need to calm down and remember that this is a long-term investment.
Title: .
Post by: This_Is_My_Username on December 10, 2014, 10:41:38 PM
It is good news when the price goes down !

the items are available to purchase for a discount.

lots of big smiley faces when the price goes down.  :))))))))))))))))))))
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Datastache on December 10, 2014, 11:34:13 PM
I sure hope this oil thing gets settled soon because I lost all the gains I made in my first month with the IRA and then some.  This is where I need to calm down and remember that this is a long-term investment.

That second sentence is exactly right. It doesn't matter what the aforementioned oil thing does today, tomorrow, next month, or even next year. This is about the long term. I know it sucks - when I glanced at my portfolio today, I didn't enjoy seeing the values go down. But it's always temporary. And don't forget about dividends!
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: matchewed on December 11, 2014, 05:27:23 AM
I sure hope this oil thing gets settled soon because I lost all the gains I made in my first month with the IRA and then some.  This is where I need to calm down and remember that this is a long-term investment.

I'm personally not an adherent to the low information diet, what I advocate is the discerning information diet. You may just be watching the wrong news sources and/or paying too much attention to a short term event's effect on a long term process like you said.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: NoraLenderbee on December 11, 2014, 04:25:51 PM
I check the stock market on Yahoo Finance. Every day, there's at least one link warning, "Market on the brink of collapse: Get out now!" Every day there's at least one link saying, "Dow poised to break 20,000!"
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Paul der Krake on December 11, 2014, 05:04:07 PM
I check the stock market on Yahoo Finance. Every day, there's at least one link warning, "Market on the brink of collapse: Get out now!" Every day there's at least one link saying, "Dow poised to break 20,000!"
This image alone contains 4 links to articles stating that Bogle is either a genius or out of his mind...

Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: matchewed on December 11, 2014, 05:57:23 PM
I check the stock market on Yahoo Finance. Every day, there's at least one link warning, "Market on the brink of collapse: Get out now!" Every day there's at least one link saying, "Dow poised to break 20,000!"
This image alone contains 4 links to articles stating that Bogle is either a genius or out of his mind...

Or so genius he is out of his mind.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Kaspian on December 12, 2014, 11:22:29 AM
I check the stock market on Yahoo Finance. Every day, there's at least one link warning, "Market on the brink of collapse: Get out now!" Every day there's at least one link saying, "Dow poised to break 20,000!"
This image alone contains 4 links to articles stating that Bogle is either a genius or out of his mind...

I don't know who that creepy guy with the goatee is, but I don't think Bogle has to justify himself to these clowns anymore.  Seems he's been doing that most of his adult life and they've been proven wrong time and time again. 

Yeah, MoneyCat--I would dump everything in now.  The same people said the bubble would burst last year.  And that bonds would be worthless.  Outrageous statements get readers and is more fun to talk about.  ...Which is sad that people try for instant, headline fame instead of trustworthy, respectable fame.  There are those who would rather sit at a party with Jim Cramer because he's so damn loud and confident he must know what he's doing, but I'll sit with a reserved and humble Bogle and have a quiet, intelligent conversation instead.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Fallenour on December 12, 2014, 12:03:51 PM
Two words, so heed my powerful, undefeatable, supreme investing, black magic:

Foreign Investment.

If you don't trust the U.S. Market, (I sure don't), then invest in someone elses.

Right now Russia is a perfect market to invest in. Their treasuries range from 10.5-14% on long term notes. They have way less of chance of defaulting on their debts than most other countries, and more than enough cash laying around to pay them all off instantly.

Brazil is another good emerging market, so is africa's technical industries.

Pick and choose.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: dycker1978 on December 12, 2014, 12:56:09 PM
I read an article on this once... and of course I cannot find it now...  But the jest was there was a guy who invested the day before the last four major "crashes".  lost his shirt, but left his money in the market, anyways... in todays dollars he still just about tripled it over time...  No need to worry, the market goes up  and down, but always up over time.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: acroy on December 12, 2014, 01:45:10 PM
dollar-cost average into the cheapest sectors!
energy sector is going down now, I am slowly buying in. Might be trying to 'catch a knife' but so be it.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: AccidentalMiser on December 12, 2014, 08:00:43 PM
Read all the articles of this: http://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/  It will calm your nerves before you make the plunge. :)

This.  +3
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: Fallenour on December 12, 2014, 08:16:47 PM
dollar-cost average into the cheapest sectors!
energy sector is going down now, I am slowly buying in. Might be trying to 'catch a knife' but so be it.

Myself as well, Gold, silver, copper, lithium, and oil based companies are all selling at really good FMV Discounts at the moment.

WSJ has even tagged a few companies as beign good buys. China is also on a really big binge buying up gold mining companies. Another thing to think about.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: GemJedi on December 14, 2014, 02:58:21 PM
Two words, so heed my powerful, undefeatable, supreme investing, black magic:

Foreign Investment.

If you don't trust the U.S. Market, (I sure don't), then invest in someone elses.

Right now Russia is a perfect market to invest in. Their treasuries range from 10.5-14% on long term notes. They have way less of chance of defaulting on their debts than most other countries, and more than enough cash laying around to pay them all off instantly.

Brazil is another good emerging market, so is africa's technical industries.

Pick and choose.

Yes if you don't mind investing in an economy governed by a weak legal system regarding property rights. They effectively taxed some of the oligarchs out of their ownership of oil companies.

Also, this is a country with international sanctions being levied against them. They are also an oil economy that will be hurt by $50 per barrel oil.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: stupendous_stash on December 14, 2014, 07:30:54 PM
Really worth a read : http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer/

and this : http://awealthofcommonsense.com/bought-near-market-bottoms/

I asked almost similar question and found the above two analyses to be very useful.

Cheers.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: TomTX on December 14, 2014, 08:32:37 PM
If the market crashes, thank the Gods and max out your 2015 contribution while the market is down.
Title: Re: People warning me not to invest right now.
Post by: dungoofed on December 15, 2014, 01:06:17 AM
As mentioned above, you may want to "insure" with an 20 percent allocation to bonds or maybe 10 percent in gold. If there was a crash in stocks and people were fleeing then you should be able to sell your "insurance" at a premium and scoop up the cheap stocks. Of course the downside is that your stock growth is affected but for the peace of mind it may be worth it. Otherwise just go all stocks (cheap index tracking fund) as is the general consensus around here - you could do much worse.