Author Topic: PE10 Screener  (Read 7595 times)

workwheniwantto

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PE10 Screener
« on: June 13, 2013, 10:26:32 AM »
Anyone know where can I go to find current P/E10 (or E10 since I can divide) for a given stock pre-calculated?  Ideally, I would like to be able to screen stocks by P/E10 and a few other variables.    The only one I have found requires a $300/year subscription, though I have only spent a couple hours looking. 

If P/E10 is unavailable, I will settle for anything P/E3-15, since it gives me more options than just P/E1 (i.e. P/E). 

Thanks in advance.

Joet

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2013, 11:07:49 PM »
I hate to say it but I'm not really sure what PE/10 is supposed to tell you other than the last 10 years were about the biggest roller coaster for earnings there has ever been and if you're trying to make some kind of forward looking value estimation off of this one metric you're barking up the wrong tree.

my humble $0.01

workwheniwantto

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2013, 06:50:21 AM »
Thank you for the input.  To be more generic, what is sought is a repository of multii-year earnings, ideally averaged, inflated, and used as the denominator in a P/Ex value in a search screener.   Other year quantities than 10-years would be good as well; I suggested PE10 since Shiller has created some traction for it rather than other metrics.  The presumption is that multi-year data will show more substantial/sustainable track record than single-year data.

Thank you for the cautionary warning.  Perhaps you would be comforted in knowing that I  care about other metrics - price/book, debt to earnings, free cash flow, revenue and earnings growth rate, industry/political climate, etc.  I have screeners for those already.  I just would like to upgrade P/E(1) to P/E(>1) or use it in conjunction with P/E(1) AND these other metrics.  Or at the very least have a end-of-search check on the stock before investing 5% of net worth into it.  (FWIW, as background - until I leave my employer, I am stuck with 401k funds only buying publicly traded things.  I would rather not be invested in the general overpriced stock market, and thus mutuals/ETFs.  My other option, bonds, will lose as rates rise.  So I am somewhat painted into the corner of trying to "pick winners", a self-dubbed "season-trader".)

grantmeaname

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2013, 02:44:13 PM »
I would rather not be invested in the general overpriced stock market, and thus mutuals/ETFs.  My other option, bonds, will lose as rates rise.  So I am somewhat painted into the corner of trying to "pick winners", a self-dubbed "season-trader".)
The whole stock market is overpriced but a handful of picks that you can identify but the top mutual fund managers of the world can't?

workwheniwantto

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Re: PE10 Screener?
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2013, 08:02:33 PM »
Usually the advice is to go ETFs because managers are not worth their cost.

<I> can identify but the top mutual fund managers of the world can't?

Of course they could.  I'm sure a professional could do better at what I am trying to accomplish if they had the exact same goals as me.  The question is whether they will do so, while overcoming their overhead costs and being constrained by fund stakeholders desire to diversify (perceived safety) and reduced tax implications (e.g. holding stocks longer rather than selling quick).  This is a 401k, so it does not hurt me to sell a stock after a few months when the sale on it moves from 50% off to 20% off.  And I do not charge for my time (it is fun doing the research).  And I am comfortable with losing 5% of my net worth on a single stock, so I can diversify with just the best 20 or so (no need for diluting into the next best stocks so I can be diversified across 100s).   (And since my 401k is only about 35% of my funds, I will probably only be picking 8-10 stocks total instead of the 20.)  My anecdotal evidence is that the stocks I picked have had a little better than double the net returns over the mutual funds I have been in - and the mutual funds were making very good (high teens) returns during this bull run. 

So far my first two responses have been seeking, goodnaturedly, to help me see an error in my stock picking strategy.  I would like to know about P/Ex>1 screeners.  If this thread is going to derail a bit, here is a suggested tangent: was I in error not putting a question mark in my initial post, and thus perhaps not attracting someone that could answer the question?

grantmeaname

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Re: PE10 Screener?
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2013, 06:42:25 AM »
If this thread is going to derail a bit, here is a suggested tangent: was I in error not putting a question mark in my initial post, and thus perhaps not attracting someone that could answer the question?
No, that wasn't the error. We're usually pretty good at inferring punctuation. Few here do the individual stock-picking thing, and the vast majority are low-cost index investors that follow Malkiel and Bogle.

Another Reader

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2013, 06:54:33 AM »
"Few here do the individual stock-picking thing, and the vast majority are low-cost index investors that follow Malkiel and Bogle."

Please support your assertion with numbers.  You know, like you ask everyone else with whom you disagree to do.

My guess is the readership here is quite varied in their investment philosophies.  However, it would appear from the posts in various threads that most readers are investing.

Sorry, can't help with the OP's original question.

grantmeaname

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2013, 07:01:28 AM »
Please support your assertion with numbers.
You got it. Two-thirds only index, and thirty percent of the remainder index with some stock-picking for play on the side.

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2013, 08:13:31 AM »
More bogus numbers.  The choices in the poll are index funds or stock picking (nothing else) and there are currently 82 replies out of thousands of readers and hundreds of registered forum participants.  A couple of posters point out the lack of choices in the poll.  I did not even look at that thread, because it was of no interest.

grantmeaname

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2013, 08:31:21 AM »
More bogus numbers.
More than what, first off? What other numbers that disagree with your opinions are you referring to?

Second, doesn't it clearly support the two individual statements I made, that a majority of the forum participants index and that few pick stocks? I was comparing low-cost index investment with stock picking, just as the poll did. I'd also note that Bogleheads has been mentioned over 200 times and SeekingAlpha less than 20 - doesn't the corroborate the overall pattern I noted? Any other pair of search terms - active management vs indexing, Vanguard vs (any other fund company), turns up a qualitatively similar pattern. Maybe the sky actually is blue?

Third, do you have any quantitative or other evidence, anywhere, that suggests some other trend may be a more accurate description of the forums or that either of my statements is factually incorrect?

Joet

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2013, 02:31:01 PM »
at some point, most retail investors (self included) are taught the lesson that 'research' and 'time' and 'buy what you know' offer no advantage over purchasing broad market indexes. Hopefully this life lesson occurs earlier in your life than later. Worst case is you trail the relevant market index (like everyone else not named Buffet or Peter Lynch over 10+ year periods). Not the strictest punishment in the world certainly. Of course you could get Enron'd [hey! losing 5% of my networth in a single stock is no big deal!]. Yay.

Good luck, hope you beat the odds OP. For the record I am perfectly ok with small/value/REIT tilts in a broad indexed portfolio. As my first post in this thread implied however, ferreting those out can prove difficult. PE/10 is just a rear-view mirror valuation screener. Not terribly relevant. Anyone got a forward-10 year stock screener :)
« Last Edit: June 17, 2013, 02:33:09 PM by Joet »

workwheniwantto

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2013, 05:45:00 AM »
Of course you could get Enron'd [hey! losing 5% of my networth in a single stock is no big deal!]. Yay.... Anyone got a forward-10 year stock screener :)

I also would much prefer a forward screener - any length of time really, particularly if it it tracks the "P" part of the P/E. 

As far as losing 5%, yeah, it would be very unfortunate.  Of course, if we want to use anecdotal worst case scenario, the downside is only ever 100%, the upside could potentially be more.  I'd gladly put half in Enron before it burst if I could put the other half in Snapple before it bubbled.  (There is probably a more recent or even more dramatic example, Snapple is just the one that came to mind readily.)

I also agree with you on the value of my time.  And when the market is down, I'll be acting in accordance with that agreement.  Or out of the market completely - I like the idea of just owning stocks/etfs as a place to store money until I can buy another house.  I just cannot do that right now with this 401k money without quitting my job. 

Thank you Joet.  I do appreciate your time and input.  I heard Value Line may report historical earnings in their print magazines, and most libraries carry it.  I will check that this week.  I am still interested in a digital screener version of PE10 (or PEX>1) though, if anyone happens to stumble across this post, please message me too. 

zunachy

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2013, 11:01:13 PM »


One possible option is to build one yourself. 

Msn.com is good at providing 10 year values. 

The number for Coke for instance:  http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=KO

You can open google docs spreadsheet and use the import html function:

=importHtml("http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=KO","table",1)

If you paste this in you will get the data you need -- for Coke at least.


You can get all of s&p for instance with this:

=importHtml("http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies","table","2")

This will give you a table with ticker names.  You can then use the ticker names as variables with a slight adjustment

=importHtml("http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol="&A22,"table",1)

Finish the quote and an & and then add the cell where the ticker is. (A22 is just where it the first ticker MMM was for me)

Then format the tables and sums or averages to your liking.

workwheniwantto

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2013, 11:36:01 AM »
Thank you so much zunachy!  That MSN link will at least be saving me a trip to the library each time I want to check the historical earnings.  And a bit of google docs programming will come in handy too.

As far as putting into practice - am I correct in understanding I'll probably need individually-tweaked tables for each stock I wish to check (if a screener, this would be hundreds or thousands)?  If that is the case, I may default to the original plan of using pre-made screeners and coming back to check P/E10 later (and the MSN link will be very helpful with that).

Also, is anyone aware what ETFs have the least number of stocks in the index?  I'd be interested in a value-based ETF (P to E, BV, etc.) holding only around 10-100 stocks.  (I'd rather be spread over a tighter group of stocks than 400 in the SP Value, etc.)

zunachy

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Re: PE10 Screener
« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2013, 10:10:27 AM »
Hi, to get the average 10 ear EPS in one cell you can use this formula:
   
=Average(TRANSPOSE(QUERY(importHtml("http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol="&A2,"table",1),"select Col6")))

You can get the up to date ticker price with the google finance function:  =GoogleFinance(CellNumber or ticker symbol)

(I was actually quite surprised by the available functionality on data manipulation from google docs, and how intuitive it is -- for instance I just added the Average function on a whim and google docs figured out to only average the numbers.)

I shared the page:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apx_mPJCRqQadHEtOUNCRWllc3lBZm1peWxZa2JKRGc#gid=4

First tab has values filtered, and second has more of the data and formulas.

There is one snag, google docs only allows 50 html import functions per page.  So you shift down the html import function to the first 50 rows, copy the values only to another column, and repeat.  Since the eps are annual, currently it means about 15 minutes of copy and paste work once a year.  Obviously more with more stock symbols.  The google finance ticker function is not restricted so the overall data is dynamic for most of the year.  If you want to get really detailed, you also need to adjust some companies at different times, since end of year for some is not in January.