Author Topic: Options heretics thread - by request  (Read 11563 times)

Financial.Velociraptor

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Options heretics thread - by request
« on: June 21, 2020, 10:23:32 AM »
@MustacheAndaHalf @Buffaloski Boris

By request, a primer on how to profit when options are "expensive".

I'm going to outline a favorite options strategy of mine.  But first a word of warning.  A lot of novice traders have blown up their accounts by using options the wrong way.  You can gain an enormous amount of leverage with options.  That leverage cuts both ways and is enormously harmful if the underlying moves against you.  Options were not designed to be used that way.  If you want to generate reliable income from options, you need to keep something in mind: you must ALWAYS design your trades to REDUCE risk.

One of my favorite strategies, and it is THE strategy for a beginner, is the "covered call".  This is an income generating tactic that profits from the passage of time.  (The passage of time so far has been a part of the laws of physics we can rely upon).  As a quick tutorial, options premium prices have two components Intrinsic Value (IV), which is equal to amount the option is "in the money"; and Time Value, which is a variable amount determined by how much the market currently values the 'optionality' of a contract.  For covered calls, we are interested in TV.  When it is "large", like today when fear is rampant in the market and volatility is high, we can make an outstanding annualized return while REDUCING the risk of simply of holding shares.

Picking somewhat randomly, I'm going to give an example with Comcast (CMCSA).  A hated company that is pretty good about hitting managements guidance, no matter how many customers they have to piss off to do it.  I choose it partly because the share price is nominally "small" and thus represents a smaller initial cash outlay for new options investors who might have smaller accounts.  Shares closed Friday at $39.10.

Each options contract controls 100 shares.  Thus, you will be operating in 100 share lots.  For CMCSA at 39.10, you initial outlay is thus $3,910 (less the premium you sell) to get into the trade.  TV decays over time and is always zero after expiry.  Decay is not linear over time and accelerates with 6-8 weeks remaining till expiry, thus we are going to target about 6-8 weeks holding period.  Thus, for the example, I will use the 31JUL2020 expiry and assume you enter the trade on (tomorrow) Monday 22JUN2020.

Now a call option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation to buy 100 shares of the underlying security for the strike price at any time up to and including expiry.  As options sellers, we become the counter party and have the obligation to sell shares at the strike price.  Thus, we want to already own the shares.  In this case, we would open a "combo order" that simultaneously instructs our broker to buy 100 shares of CMCSA while selling one contract of a call at our directed strike and expiry.  I'll use a near the money strike of 40, for simplicity's sake.  CMCSA200731C00040000 closed on Friday with a most recent trade at 1.33 per share.  Thus, assuming the market doesn't move on open, we would pay about $3,910 for shares while receiving proceeds of $133 for the sold call contract.  Total outlay is 3,910 - 133 = 3,777 and that is the most you can conceivably lose on the trade if shares go to zero.  Note that anyone who simply bought the underlying at 3,910 has 133 dollars more risk than you do; you have lowered your risk with options!

Now the 133 is yours to keep win, lose, or draw.  Let's say 40 days from now, CMCSA hasn't moved a penny and still trades for 3,910.  You will retain your shares with no unrealized capital gain or loss.  You will also retain the 133 dollars as profit. Your yield is thus about 133/3910/40*365 or 31.04% annualized.  You have trounced the long term average of the index while taking less risk.  If shares fall, you still keep the 133 and 31.04% yield but also have an unrealized capital loss that reduces your return.  However, you can write a covered call again for additional income!  Now lets look at what happens if shares rise to 41 dollars before expiry.  Your counterparty will have the right to buy your shares at 40 and immediately sell them in the  market for 41 for a profit. Your shares will certainly be called away.  You will sell 100 shares at 40, bringing in 4,000 in proceeds.  You will also keep the 133 dollars in options premium.  Your 90 cents per share short term capital gain, plus your 1.33 per share in premium represents a total of 2.23 per share in profits.  Your annualized return is thus 223/3910/40*365 = 52.04%.  Wow!

Now this example is typical of the market (right now).  Because volatility and fear is high, you can earn outsized returns with options.  In normal markets when volatility is low, I usually target a minimum expected return of 12% annualized.  This gives me sufficient return to cover inevitable losses from shares that decline plus some profit.  It usually makes about what the market index does over the same period but provides short term cash flow and importantly, REDUCES risk. 

What is the trade off?  You saw it in the example where shares were called away.  You had to sell at 40 when the underlying was at 41.  You gave up any additional upside above 40 buy selling time value. 

Hope this helps.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2020, 11:01:24 AM »
From my limited reading of options, I have the impression that the shorter the duration, the more the time decay.  Just to test my knowledge so far (including reading your post), would writing a 4 week covered call be even better than a 6 week covered call?

CMCSA200717C00040000 valued at $0.93 (4 week option)
CMCSA200731C00040000 valued at $1.33 (6 week option)

6 week / 4 week = 1.5x
0.93 x 1.5 = 1.40 ... isn't this more profitable than the $1.33 over 6 weeks?
(Annualized: $1.33 x 8 = $10.64 versus 0.93 x 12 = $11.16)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2020, 11:17:40 AM »
On the downside, I have all of this investment in one company (Comcast), instead of spread over many companies.  So I assume I need to find a variety of companies where I can purchase 100 shares (avoiding AMZN $2675/sh and GOOG $1432/sh !).


If I sell calls too cheaply, won't I lose money over time?
I sell Comcast's profit above $40/share, and receive $133 for the covered call.  Then my shares are called away and I'm left in cash: $4,000 + $133 = $4,133.  If Comcast rose to $4,200 I lost ground.  If I buy back in immediately, I need to find $67 somewhere to make up for the loss.

Don't markets often have really volatile months where this happens repeatedly?  And I gradually lose more and more on the same stock?  I have no experience with this at the month by month level, so I need someone else's experience on it.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2020, 12:59:21 PM »
Thanks. @Financial.Velociraptor !!  I appreciate your taking the time to type this out.  I want to take some time to read and digest.  I think the "heresy" threads are a great idea.   

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2020, 01:11:18 PM »
From my limited reading of options, I have the impression that the shorter the duration, the more the time decay.  Just to test my knowledge so far (including reading your post), would writing a 4 week covered call be even better than a 6 week covered call?

CMCSA200717C00040000 valued at $0.93 (4 week option)
CMCSA200731C00040000 valued at $1.33 (6 week option)

6 week / 4 week = 1.5x
0.93 x 1.5 = 1.40 ... isn't this more profitable than the $1.33 over 6 weeks?
(Annualized: $1.33 x 8 = $10.64 versus 0.93 x 12 = $11.16)


Typically, the sweet spot is 6 weeks.  The current pricing for options due to COVID-19 is "irregular" at best.  By your logic, the shortest term possible, e.g. 1 week, would always be best.  I think if you check 1 week annualized vs 4 weeks, you will probably find longer was better.  But yes, in this case you found a situation where 4 weeks is better than 6 (good eye!)  That is, assuming commissions don't spoil the stew. 

Also, to be considered it the probability of shares being called away, the probability is higher at 6 weeks than at 4.  So that is another consideration.  I usually find anywhere between 4 weeks and 8 weeks to provide "acceptable" risk/reward ratios with longer dated expiries being less of a hassle as I have to roll the trade less often.  You'll find if you take the same strike a year or more out, the annualized return falls like a rock.  For this reason (cp), you usually want more time value as a buyer of options and less as a seller.

Final point about duration of expiry: the standard options which expire on the 3rd Friday of the month has more liquidity and lower bid/ask spreads than the "weeklies".  Tread carefully when volumes get really low.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2020, 01:33:01 PM »
On the downside, I have all of this investment in one company (Comcast), instead of spread over many companies.  So I assume I need to find a variety of companies where I can purchase 100 shares (avoiding AMZN $2675/sh and GOOG $1432/sh !).


If I sell calls too cheaply, won't I lose money over time?
I sell Comcast's profit above $40/share, and receive $133 for the covered call.  Then my shares are called away and I'm left in cash: $4,000 + $133 = $4,133.  If Comcast rose to $4,200 I lost ground.  If I buy back in immediately, I need to find $67 somewhere to make up for the loss.

Don't markets often have really volatile months where this happens repeatedly?  And I gradually lose more and more on the same stock?  I have no experience with this at the month by month level, so I need someone else's experience on it.


Diversification:

Yes, if you have a small account size, buying a 100 shares of Google makes no sense as all your eggs are in one basket.   Lots of good candidates in the $25 to $50 range exist though.  No use if your portfolio is under $10k but then at such a neophyte stage, you really still need to be indexing and reading and learning.

Selling cheap is bad:

Yes, if you get a premium that is "too small" for the probability of the option going ballistic, you are the less smart party to the exchange.  Efficient Market Hypothesis says the option is always "fairly" priced.  That is probably less and less true as liquidity decreases and volatility increases.  Note, you never "lose money" if your shares are called away at a strike above your cost basis. You collect a capital gain plus the options premium.  You might have made less money than just holding the underlying but you did so with lowered risk.  In the academic world of finance that is as close as you can get to a "free lunch".

My experience:

Sometimes you get called.  The sort of ideal situation is the stock finishes at exactly your strike and you get called away earning both the premium and the full capital gain opportunity.  If you collected 1.33 in options premium and the stock goes to 40.50, you lost out on 50 cents per share of capital gain but kept 1.33 per share in profit.  That is, you are still ahead of just having bought and held.  If CMCSA goes to 42.00, you sell at 40, keep the $133 premium but miss out on $200 in upside.  The buy and hold investor "beat you" by $67. 

You can use a free calculator: https://www.optionstrategist.com/calculators/probability to determine the statistical likelihood of having shares called away.  You get the "implied volatility" in the required data box from yahoo! finance.   In the case of CMCSA 40 strike and 40 days to expiry, the probability is 42%.  More than half the time, you will keep your shares and live to write another covered call.  The odds of the underlying being above 41.33 is a mere 32% or less than 1 in 3.  Over long periods of time, repeatedly making investments that are likely to be better than the alternative 2/3 of the time is a winning strategy.  In more mundane markets, your probability will be a lot better as big moves are rare when the ^VIX is "low".

If you choose to use this strategy, from time to time, you WILL get called away.  I usually just shrug my shoulders and find the next trade which may be to get back into the same underlying stock at a higher cost basis.  You can always monitor the price with respect to the strike and "roll" your options "up and out" to a higher strike and later expiry if threatened with being called away.  This can often be done with a net credit (that is you receive more cash for capturing additional upside) but sometimes requires a net debit (putting cash into the trade) if the move upward is both large and "soon". 

The goal is not necessarily to make the maximum gains possible.  it is to generate short term income, while REDUCING risk.  Always keep the risk reduction part in mind.  It is the central reason to use options.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2020, 02:56:04 PM »
This is fascinating stuff.  Do you also take the other side of the table in selling puts?  My understanding of that play is to sell in effect insurance against a drop in the price of an equity.  So for example, using the CMCSA example, let's say I sell CMCSA#S0220D380000 with a strike price at $38.00. Last transaction was at $0.66.  So I'm selling that for 100 shares or $66.00. I'm assuming I have to put up the money in the meantime up to the maximum amount I could lose or $3800.  So, if the price of the stock doesn't drop below $38.00, I get to keep $66 for an annualized return of   66/3800/40*365=.1588 annualized. Plus wouldn't you get the interest on the underlying security you have to hold in the meantime such as a treasury? Probably negligible, but every little bit counts.   

Not too bad of a return. Of course I'm sure it smarts when you have to cover that.  But by and large people have a tendency to over-estimate and overprice downside risk. 

(I like risk. I just want to be well compensated for it.)   

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2020, 03:52:53 PM »
Thanks for sharing what you've learned about options trading.

As an aside, some people probably should not trade options.  Are there some key questions people should be asked (or ask themselves) to weed out people who shouldn't even sell covered calls?  For example, maybe people who fear missing out, and can't accept a return that differs from the market, would struggle.  I think I'm mostly asking this for people reading the thread, but it could apply to me as well.

From the Yahoo Finance data on Comcast, the 1 week option looks more profitable than the 4 week option I mentioned.  One quarter of $0.93 is $0.2325 ... but the 1 week option is selling for $0.40, which is much higher.  I'm not actually trying to convince you 1 week options are better!  I think I'm probably wrong, but I lack the experience and data you have to show me why.  Is there a way I can look at option prices from the past?  Historical data?


There's something I find strange, which might be why you avoid long-dated options.  Take the case of two of the largest S&P 500 companies, but with very different performance: AAPL and JNJ.  Apple gained +90% in one year, while Johnson & Johnson gained +5%.  So one year out, here's what I see:

AAPL $350 now, call at $350 dated June 2021 costs $60.38 (IV 32%)
JNJ $144 now, call at $145 dated June 2021 costs $12.00 (IV 24%)

Apple's 12 month performance was stellar, but the 1 year option costs 17% of the stock price (6x leverage?).  It seems likely Apple could beat that 17% break even point.
Meanwhile Johnson & Johnson has back to back +5% years, and seems unlikely to reach the option break even gain of +8%.
It looks to me like an options trader should be a seller of the JNJ call, and a buyer of the AAPL call.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2020, 04:21:32 PM »
This is fascinating stuff.  Do you also take the other side of the table in selling puts?  My understanding of that play is to sell in effect insurance against a drop in the price of an equity.  So for example, using the CMCSA example, let's say I sell CMCSA#S0220D380000 with a strike price at $38.00. Last transaction was at $0.66.  So I'm selling that for 100 shares or $66.00. I'm assuming I have to put up the money in the meantime up to the maximum amount I could lose or $3800.  So, if the price of the stock doesn't drop below $38.00, I get to keep $66 for an annualized return of   66/3800/40*365=.1588 annualized. Plus wouldn't you get the interest on the underlying security you have to hold in the meantime such as a treasury? Probably negligible, but every little bit counts.   

Not too bad of a return. Of course I'm sure it smarts when you have to cover that.  But by and large people have a tendency to over-estimate and overprice downside risk. 

(I like risk. I just want to be well compensated for it.)   

Yes, I frequently sell put options as well.  They come in two flavors (to answer one of your other questions): cash secured, and marginable.  For a cash secured put, you keep enough cash to cover the assignment - in your example 3,800 in your brokerage.  For a margin put, you have less than 3,800 or even no cash in your brokerage account.  Your broker will ordinarily assume 20% maintenance margin for a put.  So basically, you get 5x leverage.  That cuts both ways, your return is five times normal if you are "right" but you must take a margin loan at whatever the broker's lending rate is if you are "wrong". 

So, in your case, not only do you make 15.8% to "stink bid" CMCSA, you have downside protection equal to the amount the strike is out of the money, plus the premium received.  Going closer the money at 39 or 40 strike would have a higher annualized return (with greater "risk").

I like to write puts on stocks I want to own to lower my cost basis.  Once assigned, I usually sell covered calls against the new position for more income and even lower risk.

NOTE: most brokers will let almost anyone sell covered calls.  Selling puts is usually considered a higher risk bracket and may require additional approval from your broker.  There are often 4 levels of options authority at a broker.  Most people will never want to go higher than level 2.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2020, 04:30:10 PM »
Thanks for sharing what you've learned about options trading.

As an aside, some people probably should not trade options.  Are there some key questions people should be asked (or ask themselves) to weed out people who shouldn't even sell covered calls?  For example, maybe people who fear missing out, and can't accept a return that differs from the market, would struggle.  I think I'm mostly asking this for people reading the thread, but it could apply to me as well.

From the Yahoo Finance data on Comcast, the 1 week option looks more profitable than the 4 week option I mentioned.  One quarter of $0.93 is $0.2325 ... but the 1 week option is selling for $0.40, which is much higher.  I'm not actually trying to convince you 1 week options are better!  I think I'm probably wrong, but I lack the experience and data you have to show me why.  Is there a way I can look at option prices from the past?  Historical data?


There's something I find strange, which might be why you avoid long-dated options.  Take the case of two of the largest S&P 500 companies, but with very different performance: AAPL and JNJ.  Apple gained +90% in one year, while Johnson & Johnson gained +5%.  So one year out, here's what I see:

AAPL $350 now, call at $350 dated June 2021 costs $60.38 (IV 32%)
JNJ $144 now, call at $145 dated June 2021 costs $12.00 (IV 24%)

Apple's 12 month performance was stellar, but the 1 year option costs 17% of the stock price (6x leverage?).  It seems likely Apple could beat that 17% break even point.
Meanwhile Johnson & Johnson has back to back +5% years, and seems unlikely to reach the option break even gain of +8%.
It looks to me like an options trader should be a seller of the JNJ call, and a buyer of the AAPL call.

It is a really weird scenario if weekly options are paying better on an annualized basis than 4 week ones.  Could be a matter of expectations in that the "market" thinks the next week looks shaky and each additional week you go into the future the outcome becomes increasingly "certain".  That is, they are fearful over short periods of time but confident over "long" periods of time.

You hit on an important concept with implied volatility varying between individual stocks.  Some stocks are expected to move much more than others by the market and thus their options premiums will be "more expensive".  Whether that is efficiently priced across the broad market is an exercise for the reader to determine.  Note that the flipside to your findings also apply.  JNJ is unlikely to be 50% lower a year from now (+/- 5% is a good range estimate).  Apple could absolutely tank on weak iPhone sales, loss of IP in China, change of sentiment by apple fanbois, or other.  Thus, your odds of a losing trade are higher with apple. 

As far as who shouldn't trade covered calls - the strategy is very safe.  If  you have a gambling addiction and are likely to start selling naked calls, making large leveraged trades, etc. you should stay away.  But covered calls are frequently recommended for grey haired retirees looking to maximize their income while reducing risk. 

I'm not aware of a free resource to see historical options pricing data.  You can probably get that with something like a bloomberg terminal (25k/year subscription fee).  I sure would lose a lot of time data mining if such a resource existed.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2020, 05:46:09 PM »
This is fascinating stuff.  Do you also take the other side of the table in selling puts?  My understanding of that play is to sell in effect insurance against a drop in the price of an equity.  So for example, using the CMCSA example, let's say I sell CMCSA#S0220D380000 with a strike price at $38.00. Last transaction was at $0.66.  So I'm selling that for 100 shares or $66.00. I'm assuming I have to put up the money in the meantime up to the maximum amount I could lose or $3800.  So, if the price of the stock doesn't drop below $38.00, I get to keep $66 for an annualized return of   66/3800/40*365=.1588 annualized. Plus wouldn't you get the interest on the underlying security you have to hold in the meantime such as a treasury? Probably negligible, but every little bit counts.   

Not too bad of a return. Of course I'm sure it smarts when you have to cover that.  But by and large people have a tendency to over-estimate and overprice downside risk. 

(I like risk. I just want to be well compensated for it.)   

Yes, I frequently sell put options as well.  They come in two flavors (to answer one of your other questions): cash secured, and marginable.  For a cash secured put, you keep enough cash to cover the assignment - in your example 3,800 in your brokerage.  For a margin put, you have less than 3,800 or even no cash in your brokerage account.  Your broker will ordinarily assume 20% maintenance margin for a put.  So basically, you get 5x leverage.  That cuts both ways, your return is five times normal if you are "right" but you must take a margin loan at whatever the broker's lending rate is if you are "wrong". 

So, in your case, not only do you make 15.8% to "stink bid" CMCSA, you have downside protection equal to the amount the strike is out of the money, plus the premium received.  Going closer the money at 39 or 40 strike would have a higher annualized return (with greater "risk").

I like to write puts on stocks I want to own to lower my cost basis.  Once assigned, I usually sell covered calls against the new position for more income and even lower risk.

NOTE: most brokers will let almost anyone sell covered calls.  Selling puts is usually considered a higher risk bracket and may require additional approval from your broker.  There are often 4 levels of options authority at a broker.  Most people will never want to go higher than level 2.

Thank you for the detailed explanation.  You lost me, though, on how you lower your cost basis by writing puts on stocks. 

KBecks

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2020, 07:07:40 PM »
I have some experience w/options and have recently started messing around with weeklies.

Options are the icing on the main portfolio cake.  There are a few companies I know well and I am willing to trade around a core position.

IMO, people should not start w/options until they have a decent net worth. Also, being a nerd helps.

« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 07:12:13 PM by KBecks »

markbike528CBX

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2020, 07:57:35 PM »
This is fascinating stuff.  Do you also take the other side of the table in selling puts?  My understanding of that play is to sell in effect insurance against a drop in the price of an equity.  So for example, using the CMCSA example, let's say I sell CMCSA#S0220D380000 with a strike price at $38.00. Last transaction was at $0.66.  So I'm selling that for 100 shares or $66.00. I'm assuming I have to put up the money in the meantime up to the maximum amount I could lose or $3800.  So, if the price of the stock doesn't drop below $38.00, I get to keep $66 for an annualized return of   66/3800/40*365=.1588 annualized. Plus wouldn't you get the interest on the underlying security you have to hold in the meantime such as a treasury? Probably negligible, but every little bit counts.   

Not too bad of a return. Of course I'm sure it smarts when you have to cover that.  But by and large people have a tendency to over-estimate and overprice downside risk. 

(I like risk. I just want to be well compensated for it.)   

Yes, I frequently sell put options as well.  They come in two flavors (to answer one of your other questions): cash secured, and marginable.  For a cash secured put, you keep enough cash to cover the assignment - in your example 3,800 in your brokerage.  For a margin put, you have less than 3,800 or even no cash in your brokerage account.  Your broker will ordinarily assume 20% maintenance margin for a put.  So basically, you get 5x leverage.  That cuts both ways, your return is five times normal if you are "right" but you must take a margin loan at whatever the broker's lending rate is if you are "wrong". 

So, in your case, not only do you make 15.8% to "stink bid" CMCSA, you have downside protection equal to the amount the strike is out of the money, plus the premium received.  Going closer the money at 39 or 40 strike would have a higher annualized return (with greater "risk").

I like to write puts on stocks I want to own to lower my cost basis.  Once assigned, I usually sell covered calls against the new position for more income and even lower risk.

NOTE: most brokers will let almost anyone sell covered calls.  Selling puts is usually considered a higher risk bracket and may require additional approval from your broker.  There are often 4 levels of options authority at a broker.  Most people will never want to go higher than level 2.

Thank you for the detailed explanation.  You lost me, though, on how you lower your cost basis by writing puts on stocks.

The premium received for writing (selling) offsets some off the cost need to buy at the strike price.

If you are not assigned (forced to buy), then the premium is short-term capital gains tax-wise.
If you are assigned (forced to buy), then the cost basis of shares received are lowered by the amount of the premium.
Then you would only pay the capital gains on the difference between your lowered ( due to premium )  cost basis and final sale price.

My preferred stock buying method is to sell (write) a cash covered put.
Why?
The premium is small, so no major tax burden if not assigned, some small income.
The cost basis is lowered ( see above)
Formerly, the premium would offset  the commissions. With low commissions, less of a consideration.
I set the strike to what I think I'd bid as a straight buy.
It locks the buy in and provides some excitement as the expiration gets closer.


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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2020, 01:50:36 AM »
My father uses covered calls as a significant part of his investing strategy.  I recall him telling me years ago that it probably adds a percent or so to his annual returns.  I don't know whether he outperforms the indexes, but he's certainly a successful investor in that he built an impressive portfolio without ever having had a very high income (and FIRED long before anyone had ever heard of the term). 

When I asked him back then if I should emulate his strategy, he didn't hesitate before answering; "Nah, I'm an old retired guy who has nothing better to do than spend hours watching the stock market.  Just put your money in index funds and leave it alone."  Interestingly, he told me a few weeks ago that now that he is in his mid-80s, he has started shifting some of his portfolio into index funds in preparation for the time when he either isn't around or isn't capable of managing his investments. 

On the day after Father's day, I realize how much my father taught me (both intentionally and by example) about investing and having a healthy relationship with money.  I need to be sure to say thank you the next time I talk to him. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2020, 05:58:19 AM »

Thank you for the detailed explanation.  You lost me, though, on how you lower your cost basis by writing puts on stocks.

The premium received for writing (selling) offsets some off the cost need to buy at the strike price.

If you are not assigned (forced to buy), then the premium is short-term capital gains tax-wise.
If you are assigned (forced to buy), then the cost basis of shares received are lowered by the amount of the premium.
Then you would only pay the capital gains on the difference between your lowered ( due to premium )  cost basis and final sale price.

My preferred stock buying method is to sell (write) a cash covered put.
Why?
The premium is small, so no major tax burden if not assigned, some small income.
The cost basis is lowered ( see above)
Formerly, the premium would offset  the commissions. With low commissions, less of a consideration.
I set the strike to what I think I'd bid as a straight buy.
It locks the buy in and provides some excitement as the expiration gets closer.

Thanks for the explanation. I think I get it now. What you’re doing is almost like a limit order with a bonus. Let’s say you want to buy 100 shares of Comcast for $38.00. Instead of putting in a limit order, you sell a put with a strike price at $38.00. If the price goes to $38.00 or below, the option ends up being exercised you get your Comcast stock for $38.00 less the premium you got for selling the put. If the price doesn’t drop to $38, you get to pocket the premium. Either way, you get a little bit of a win.

Nice. 

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2020, 06:32:30 AM »

Thank you for the detailed explanation.  You lost me, though, on how you lower your cost basis by writing puts on stocks.

The premium received for writing (selling) offsets some off the cost need to buy at the strike price.

If you are not assigned (forced to buy), then the premium is short-term capital gains tax-wise.
If you are assigned (forced to buy), then the cost basis of shares received are lowered by the amount of the premium.
Then you would only pay the capital gains on the difference between your lowered ( due to premium )  cost basis and final sale price.

My preferred stock buying method is to sell (write) a cash covered put.
Why?
The premium is small, so no major tax burden if not assigned, some small income.
The cost basis is lowered ( see above)
Formerly, the premium would offset  the commissions. With low commissions, less of a consideration.
I set the strike to what I think I'd bid as a straight buy.
It locks the buy in and provides some excitement as the expiration gets closer.

Thanks for the explanation. I think I get it now. What you’re doing is almost like a limit order with a bonus. Let’s say you want to buy 100 shares of Comcast for $38.00. Instead of putting in a limit order, you sell a put with a strike price at $38.00. If the price goes to $38.00 or below, the option ends up being exercised you get your Comcast stock for $38.00 less the premium you got for selling the put. If the price doesn’t drop to $38, you get to pocket the premium. Either way, you get a little bit of a win.

Nice.

"like a limit order with a bonus"  -- well said, and exactly my intent.

There is pain in this method.
If you get exercised,
         a) the price is by definition lower than your strike price --- oh, what could have been :-)
         b) underlying stock/index price is nearly guaranteed to crater, at least in my experience.
as a buy and holder, the post buy cratering is just part of being long an stock/index.

I think of it as "Well I wanted it at the strike price, so of course it is going down from there, just like if I had bought it at the strike price as a limit order."

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2020, 09:53:18 AM »
If we're going to talk about the options here, shouldn't we also talk about you are down 50% YTD from options?

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2020, 02:43:27 PM »
If we're going to talk about the options here, shouldn't we also talk about you are down 50% YTD from options?

That's not nice.

For the record, I'm down 38%.  And it isn't because of options. It is because of an ill advised short of TSLA that had no stop loss and the complete collapse of MRRL which was never optionable.  My options trades are still very profitable and low risk.  Without options, I'd be unretired right now. 

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2020, 07:44:51 PM »
If we're going to talk about the options here, shouldn't we also talk about you are down 50% YTD from options?

That's not nice.

For the record, I'm down 38%.  And it isn't because of options. It is because of an ill advised short of TSLA that had no stop loss and the complete collapse of MRRL which was never optionable.  My options trades are still very profitable and low risk.  Without options, I'd be unretired right now.

I gotcha. Wasn’t trying to be a jerk, just thought it was the options trades that caused the drawdown this year.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2020, 07:53:54 PM »
I suggested the thread, so hodedofome you are free to blame me for it.  I have many questions that are more important than Financial.Velociraptor's personal performance.  That said, I would be curious how options performed last year (2019) versus this far more volatile year (year to date 2020).

Back in March, I bought numerous individual stocks at deep discounts, including a few penny stocks.  One of those has surged above $1 on buy out rumors, and has enormous volume right now (average 1/6th of all shares trade each day).  Since it's a penny stock (now over $1), I think it's a good idea to keep it's name anonymous.  I can PM you if required, but I don't endorse the stock or penny stocks in general.

Since it's fully valued for me, I'd like to take advantage of the current excitement and volatility to sell call options.  And since I want to sell my shares anyways, I'm fine with deep in the money call or put options.  I don't want to be tied to this stock forever, so I'd prefer the July 17 options.

The stock is $1.70/share with the following data about July 17 calls:
$1.00 strike,  $0.80,   150-200% implied volatility
$2.00 strike,  $0.33,   200-250% implied volatility
$3.00 strike,  $0.20,   250-300% implied volatility

My goal is to be called or sell, so that's not a factor.  But I want to weigh the gains of each choice.
$1 strike has $0.70 intrinsic value and $0.10 time value.  I collect $0.80, or 47% of the stock price.
$2 strike has no intrinsic value and $0.33 time value.  The $0.33 premium is 19% of the stock price.

I'm worried that the $1 strike has so little time value ($0.10), that the $2 strike is a better choice.  One month ago, the stock traded for under $1, so a sharp drop is quite possible.  Actually, if Monday's gain were reversed, the $1 strike would immediately have more time value than the $2 strike.  How would you weigh these choices, given I plan to sell the stock either way (no fear of being called)?
« Last Edit: June 22, 2020, 07:55:59 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2020, 06:54:09 AM »
@Financial.Velociraptor - I have another example of how shorting is really expensive... for my anonymous stock, it costs about 22% per year.  And if the stock goes up, I have to "buy to close" my short position, regardless of price.

@markbike528CBX - I'm starting to agree with your uncovered put writing.  If I write a put for a $3 strike, each contract involves 100 shares.  My maximum loss is $3 x 100 = $300, and only if the stock goes to zero.  That actually seems less risky to me than shorting the stock, which involves loan fees and unlimited upside risk until I cover.

$3 strike for NOV pays:  $0.64 for CALL, $2.26 for PUT (deep in the money put)

Here's my choices.  Keep in mind I feel price drops are more likely than gains:
(#1) sell a covered call for $0.64.  I'll regret not selling now, but if the stock stays above $1.70 - $0.64 = $1.06, then I wind up with a profit.
(#2) sell both a covered call and a cash-backed put.  I collect $2.90 in premiums, but the PUT being in the money costs me $1.30, so I only clear $1.60.  That premium must cover both the loss in value of my shares, and the increasing cost of the put I've written.  At $0.90/sh or higher, I have a profit.
(#3) sell shares ($1.70) locking in my gains, and write a cash-backed put.  If the stock stays above $0.74/sh, I make a profit.

Least risky: sell shares now and offer a cash-backed put.  I profit on increase, lose on a drop.
Most greedy: $3 straddle, where price movements are doubled: twice gain or twice the loss.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2020, 07:38:48 AM »
Be very careful not to think of covered calls as a "heads I win, tails I still win" free money situation like many new options traders do.

The call premium received is always slightly less than the market's probability-weighted estimate of the stock's upside. You are selling the probability of that upside potential and there are supercomputers counting the cards so to speak on the other side of the trade. Imagine a spreadsheet of all possible future stock prices, with a percentage attached to each penny increment in price to represent the odds of that price occurring. The difference between today's price and each possible future price is multiplied by the percentage. The value of an option at any particular strike is the sum of all the positive numbers. If the stock has a 20% chance of going from 40 to 41, the 41 call can be sold for about 0.19 plus the value of the chance of it going above 41. (0.19 instead of 0.20 because your counterparties will usually only trade when you offer them a bargain).

Short puts are the inverse. You are selling insurance to a supercomputer, and the amount the computer is willing to pay is always slightly less than the probability-weighted estimate of the stock's downside.

In both cases, if your computer adversary calculates the you have made a pricing error, they will trade with you. Otherwise, they generally maintain the bid-ask spread with lightning fast speed.

That said, covered calls and short puts are good tools to do 2 things:

1) Enter a stock position by selling puts until a dip comes along and you are assigned. This is a good strategy if the annualize return on the puts is greater than your expected appreciation of the stock (because otherwise you should buy the stock before it runs away on you).

2) Exit a stock position by selling calls until you are forced to sell high. This is a good strategy if you think the stock is overpriced AND you have a plan to rebalance or spend the cash once assigned (i.e. if assigned you are not just going to buy the stock again at a higher price than you sold it.)

But as a lifestyle choice, I can speak from experience. There's nothing like selling a covered call to get $100 and to watch yourself miss out on $1,000 in gains while holding all the downside risk. Similarly, there's nothing like selling a put for $100 and being assigned the stock at a cost $1,000 over market value. It takes a lot of "wins" to make up for either scenario and over the long run the expected value of thousands of such trades is breakeven.

Time Value is no more abstract than a roll of the dice. Across the whole market it all resolves into Intrinsic Value in the long term. E.g. if you win at selling covered calls, it's because someone else lost selling short puts. There is no complicated options combo strategy that avoids the zero-net-sum nature of the market. There's no free lunch.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2020, 08:01:52 AM »
I suggested the thread, so hodedofome you are free to blame me for it.  I have many questions that are more important than Financial.Velociraptor's personal performance.  That said, I would be curious how options performed last year (2019) versus this far more volatile year (year to date 2020).

Back in March, I bought numerous individual stocks at deep discounts, including a few penny stocks.  One of those has surged above $1 on buy out rumors, and has enormous volume right now (average 1/6th of all shares trade each day).  Since it's a penny stock (now over $1), I think it's a good idea to keep it's name anonymous.  I can PM you if required, but I don't endorse the stock or penny stocks in general.

Since it's fully valued for me, I'd like to take advantage of the current excitement and volatility to sell call options.  And since I want to sell my shares anyways, I'm fine with deep in the money call or put options.  I don't want to be tied to this stock forever, so I'd prefer the July 17 options.

The stock is $1.70/share with the following data about July 17 calls:
$1.00 strike,  $0.80,   150-200% implied volatility
$2.00 strike,  $0.33,   200-250% implied volatility
$3.00 strike,  $0.20,   250-300% implied volatility

My goal is to be called or sell, so that's not a factor.  But I want to weigh the gains of each choice.
$1 strike has $0.70 intrinsic value and $0.10 time value.  I collect $0.80, or 47% of the stock price.
$2 strike has no intrinsic value and $0.33 time value.  The $0.33 premium is 19% of the stock price.

I'm worried that the $1 strike has so little time value ($0.10), that the $2 strike is a better choice.  One month ago, the stock traded for under $1, so a sharp drop is quite possible.  Actually, if Monday's gain were reversed, the $1 strike would immediately have more time value than the $2 strike.  How would you weigh these choices, given I plan to sell the stock either way (no fear of being called)?

All other things being equal, implied volatility is your friend when selling options.  The higher the better.  With time value, you always get the most TV by being at the money.  Going further in or out of the money always lowers your TV as a percentage of the underlying.  Thus, 2 is "better" from a return perspective.  That is pure mathematics and doesn't account for the possibility of being left holding at a price under a dollar when you intended to sell.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2020, 08:09:29 AM »
Be very careful not to think of covered calls as a "heads I win, tails I still win" free money situation like many new options traders do.

The call premium received is always slightly less than the market's probability-weighted estimate of the stock's upside. You are selling the probability of that upside potential and there are supercomputers counting the cards so to speak on the other side of the trade.

@ChpBstrd makes a good point about the market likely being "efficient" for stocks/options with deep liquidity.  In that scenario, the only way to "win" would be if the markets estimate for volatility is too high at the time you sell.  I like to think that there is *always* a non-zero amount of both fear and greed in the market causing vol to be perpetually overstated.  The overstatement is probably "small" as the supercomputers noted by ChpBstrd would always be hard at work trying to arbitrage that away.  CBOE research seems to agree with that as they have found through extensive back testing that writing covered calls 2% out of the money yield a small amount of consistent out-performance vis-a-vis buy and hold.

I'd also note that the options price includes not just the pure statistical probability of assignment but is also driven by interest rates.  You are in effect, earning interest with your sale.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2020, 08:32:40 AM »
I like taking the opposite approach of @FinancialVelociraptor and either buying puts or using long calls instead of long stock positions. With a protected put, calls & cash, or collar strategy, I pay some premium in exchange for leveraged downside protection. It's like buying homeowner's insurance to ensure your portfolio does not burn down. Because sequence of returns risk in the years before/after retirement is my main concern, I want to set up a returns function with limited downside. E.g. with a protective put or cash & calls strategy, my returns hit a floor if the market does poorly. So if the market drops 40%, I might only be down 20%.

Setting downside limits like this is the essence of SORR control. People traditionally did this by having a large bond allocation, but with yields in the 0-2% range, I just can't. Paying a 3-4% per year premium to the options market to protect a 95% stock allocation provides both more definitive protection and more upside than a large 2% yielding bond allocation (bonds which would collapse double-digits if inflation increased or mass downgrades occurred). I've found that a portfolio of about 95% stocks, 5% long puts/collars has the volatility of a 60/40 or 50/50 portfolio.

There's also an algorithmic strategy here. If the market goes into correction, and I'm in a protected put or collar strategy, I can always switch to a 100% long strategy as the market falls. I do this by selling my highly appreciate puts and buying stock with he proceeds. Similarly, if I'm holding cash and a few long calls, I only lost the value of the calls and all my cash is available to deploy, hopefully near the bottom. Volatility increases options prices. You buy your puts and calls when the VIX is low, and you sell the puts when VIX is high. When stock prices recover and VIX is low again, you re-enter the hedged strategy. Thus, you are relying on real-time signals to operate the strategy, not guesses about future returns.

An IPS should be used to maintain discipline here and YOU HAVE TO STICK TO THE IPS or you'll miss the benefit like I did in March when I held back and didn't go all in at 20% down because I thought the market had farther to fall! My IPS says to drop my hedges and go all long when the market is down 20%. Why 20%? Because this is a fairly common correction, it is substantial enough to represent SORR, and the historical returns after 20% corrections are almost always positive.

Some look at the drag compared to a 100% stock portfolio, but I see it as a substitute for a bond tent with a higher expected yield. Plus, I've set up a situation where I'm invested in stocks, but market outcomes cannot possibly wipe me out, blow up my portfolio, or set back my retirement 5-10 years. That's what everyone says they want, and it's available for the taking.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2020, 10:17:55 AM »
ChpBstrd - Your long call strategy is interesting, but I'm not ready for it.  I need to read up on bankroll management and bet sizes (from poker) first.  I agree traders, HFT and even AI stock trading are ruthlessly efficient enemies.  Lucky I'm in the children's play area, where my problem is too few options being traded.

Financial.Velociraptor - For call options out of the money, isn't the premium equal to the time value?  Conversely, call options in the money can have their profit subtracted from the premium - I'm assuming that's also the time value?  I take those values in a spreadsheet, divide by the stock price, and that's my version of time value (as a percentage of the stock).  I want the highest time value per month.

Take the example of a $1.60 stock and selling a call at $2 strike, and deciding which month:
JUL premium $0.32 (1 month away)
AUG premium $0.48 (2 months away)
NOV premium $0.64 (5 months away)

What I see is +20% first month, +10% next month, and +3.3% for each of 3 months after that.  If I aim for 6% per month, then I'd reject NOV and find either JUL or AUG a good deal.  Am I looking at time value wrong in this example?  That's what I'm doing in practice, with a new spreadsheet I created... with option matrix premiums entered by hand.  :P

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2020, 02:05:24 PM »
This topic is very much what I've been investigating lately. Thanks for posting.

1. Do you use any software or calculators to help you determine Delta and other option greeks? Is everything done in Excel?

2. What process do you go through to determine if a name is worthy of your time?


Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2020, 04:14:15 PM »

Financial.Velociraptor - For call options out of the money, isn't the premium equal to the time value?  Conversely, call options in the money can have their profit subtracted from the premium - I'm assuming that's also the time value?  I take those values in a spreadsheet, divide by the stock price, and that's my version of time value (as a percentage of the stock).  I want the highest time value per month.

Take the example of a $1.60 stock and selling a call at $2 strike, and deciding which month:
JUL premium $0.32 (1 month away)
AUG premium $0.48 (2 months away)
NOV premium $0.64 (5 months away)

What I see is +20% first month, +10% next month, and +3.3% for each of 3 months after that.  If I aim for 6% per month, then I'd reject NOV and find either JUL or AUG a good deal.  Am I looking at time value wrong in this example?  That's what I'm doing in practice, with a new spreadsheet I created... with option matrix premiums entered by hand.  :P

IV is also equal to the amount the option is in the money. TV is always total premium less IV.  So out of the money calls/ puts are always 100% IV as you noted.

Your annualized return will ordinarily rise as your expiry date gets closer to the current date (but usually with a floor around 6-8 weeks out).  Your matrix is right, the further out your go into AUG, NOV, etc, your annualized return will continue to fall.  This assumes a "contango" state.

Contango - This is defined by premiums for options or futures that get higher the further out the expiry.  In normal situations, TV increases as you "buy more time".  With futures for commodity markets and some other markets, future expectations sometimes move such that the nearer expiry is more expensive (known as "backwardation") 

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2020, 04:26:16 PM »
I like taking the opposite approach of @FinancialVelociraptor and either buying puts or using long calls instead of long stock positions. With a protected put, calls & cash, or collar strategy, I pay some premium in exchange for leveraged downside protection. It's like buying homeowner's insurance to ensure your portfolio does not burn down. Because sequence of returns risk in the years before/after retirement is my main concern, I want to set up a returns function with limited downside. E.g. with a protective put or cash & calls strategy, my returns hit a floor if the market does poorly. So if the market drops 40%, I might only be down 20%.

Setting downside limits like this is the essence of SORR control. People traditionally did this by having a large bond allocation, but with yields in the 0-2% range, I just can't. Paying a 3-4% per year premium to the options market to protect a 95% stock allocation provides both more definitive protection and more upside than a large 2% yielding bond allocation (bonds which would collapse double-digits if inflation increased or mass downgrades occurred). I've found that a portfolio of about 95% stocks, 5% long puts/collars has the volatility of a 60/40 or 50/50 portfolio.

There's also an algorithmic strategy here. If the market goes into correction, and I'm in a protected put or collar strategy, I can always switch to a 100% long strategy as the market falls. I do this by selling my highly appreciate puts and buying stock with he proceeds. Similarly, if I'm holding cash and a few long calls, I only lost the value of the calls and all my cash is available to deploy, hopefully near the bottom. Volatility increases options prices. You buy your puts and calls when the VIX is low, and you sell the puts when VIX is high. When stock prices recover and VIX is low again, you re-enter the hedged strategy. Thus, you are relying on real-time signals to operate the strategy, not guesses about future returns.

An IPS should be used to maintain discipline here and YOU HAVE TO STICK TO THE IPS or you'll miss the benefit like I did in March when I held back and didn't go all in at 20% down because I thought the market had farther to fall! My IPS says to drop my hedges and go all long when the market is down 20%. Why 20%? Because this is a fairly common correction, it is substantial enough to represent SORR, and the historical returns after 20% corrections are almost always positive.

Some look at the drag compared to a 100% stock portfolio, but I see it as a substitute for a bond tent with a higher expected yield. Plus, I've set up a situation where I'm invested in stocks, but market outcomes cannot possibly wipe me out, blow up my portfolio, or set back my retirement 5-10 years. That's what everyone says they want, and it's available for the taking.

Interesting idea.  I like closed end municipal bond funds for my taxable bond allocation.  Paying over 4.5% tax exempt right now assuming  you stick to the quality funds and don't go balls out for riskier yield. 

Starting early last year, I started buying long dated puts on names I thought were over leveraged, especially if they had declining sales.  Theory was in a widespread market panic, the overly leveraged names will fall first and farthest, including to zero.  I made good money on HTZ, GM, UBER, JWN, COP, DDS, CAKE, RIG, ALLY, F, while losing on PTON, T, and MCK.  With my TSLA short oopsie and complete loss of MRRL when it folded, these hedges literally saved my portfolio.  I still hold puts on DRI, LYFT, PLAY, UBER, XOM, DAL, and RAD.  All but LYFT and RAD are underwater with the market rally.  I'm down a total of 1,018 at market which is something I'm willing to pay for "insurance" that could pay off big if the market tanks 50% again.

"Cash and calls" is a tried and true method.

I also like "diagonal calls" in times of market stability.  Buy a long dated deep in the money call to minimize time value.  This gives you leveraged to the underlying while reducing your capital at risk. You can use the long call to hedge short dated out of the money short calls.  Your return is only a few percent annualized (notional) but is leveraged and you retain the upside of share appreciation.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2020, 05:03:01 PM »
Note to all: This is one of the more fascinating topics I've seen here on MMM.  Thanks for the posts and the willingness to teach. 

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #30 on: June 23, 2020, 06:14:16 PM »
Note to all: This is one of the more fascinating topics I've seen here on MMM.  Thanks for the posts and the willingness to teach.
@Buffaloski Boris @MustacheAndaHalf

How far down this rabbit hole do we want to go?  Should I discuss how to buy a net debit spread, particularly how I like to structure such trades for high probability of profit?  That strategy is more advanced and might not be available to new options traders at some brokers.  It will be at least a "level 2" of trading permissions, maybe 3.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2020, 12:54:48 AM »
I'd prefer going slowly, myself.  In March/April I covered a lot of ground, going from passive investor to market timer buying dozens of individual stocks.  It's likely once COVID is over, I will revert back to a mostly passive investor, with a standard US/international/bond allocation.  But in all this excitement, I think it's prudent I have a chunk of "play money" that I can experiment on, to keep me away from meddling with my main portfolio.

Let's say I'm like most of MMM back in 2019, and I have a total stock market ETF, a total international ETF, and a bond allocation.  Is there something small and low risk they could do that provides a small but very reliable return?  Or is that a dangerous way to get into options, by not seeing the risks?

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #32 on: June 24, 2020, 01:29:05 AM »
Take the example of a $1.60 stock and selling a call at $2 strike, and deciding which month:
JUL premium $0.32 (1 month away)
AUG premium $0.48 (2 months away)
NOV premium $0.64 (5 months away)

What I see is +20% first month, +10% next month, and +3.3% for each of 3 months after that.
IV is also equal to the amount the option is in the money. TV is always total premium less IV.  So out of the money calls/ puts are always 100% IV as you noted.

Your annualized return will ordinarily rise as your expiry date gets closer to the current date (but usually with a floor around 6-8 weeks out).  Your matrix is right, the further out your go into AUG, NOV, etc, your annualized return will continue to fall.  This assumes a "contango" state.
Thanks for the confirmation - saying what I think is accurate is one thing, having it confirmed another.  I should probably ask more definition and tools questions, and less strategy questions right now.

Looks like I need to open up Interactive Broker's "Option Trader" window/program and view the option chain / matrix using that.  It was really annoying stepping through each possible date and strike price to collect information at Vanguard!  That will make it less frustrating than my first day option trading.

I wrote $2 calls for JUL and AUG when the stock was $1.60/sh, so I collected $20 per contract ($0.20/sh x 100 sh/contract = $20/contract).  I also have evidence I'm not dealing with professional traders: I got a partial execution of one $60 contract, and only 20-30 minutes later were the other contracts purchased.  Right now I don't need to worry about "bet sizes", because I'm dealing with contracts worth $20 to $90 for 100 shares.

@ChpBstrd - You mentioned supercomputers.. maybe I'll just say "HFT" (high frequency trading) because it's short and conveys a reasonably accurate meaning.  When I trade options at Vanguard, I'm required to price options to the nearest $0.05 (for amounts under $3).  Am I at a disadvantage?  Is everyone playing by that rule, or can traders buy/sell in $0.01 increments?

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #33 on: June 24, 2020, 08:15:37 AM »
  Is there something small and low risk they could do that provides a small but very reliable return?  Or is that a dangerous way to get into options, by not seeing the risks?

Deep in the money net debit spreads fit that bill.  Very high probability of success.  Return 'small'.

KBecks

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #34 on: June 24, 2020, 10:22:08 AM »
Here is a warning for inexperienced investors not to get in over their heads

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/business/robinhood-suicide-alex-kearns/index.html


Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #35 on: June 24, 2020, 10:32:15 AM »
I'd prefer going slowly, myself.  In March/April I covered a lot of ground, going from passive investor to market timer buying dozens of individual stocks.  It's likely once COVID is over, I will revert back to a mostly passive investor, with a standard US/international/bond allocation.  But in all this excitement, I think it's prudent I have a chunk of "play money" that I can experiment on, to keep me away from meddling with my main portfolio.

Let's say I'm like most of MMM back in 2019, and I have a total stock market ETF, a total international ETF, and a bond allocation.  Is there something small and low risk they could do that provides a small but very reliable return?  Or is that a dangerous way to get into options, by not seeing the risks?

Pretty much dittoes for me. I want to go play first before I get into the more complex stuff. Might we have you back for a topic on advanced heresy later?

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #36 on: June 24, 2020, 11:07:01 AM »

Pretty much dittoes for me. I want to go play first before I get into the more complex stuff. Might we have you back for a topic on advanced heresy later?

"Advanced heresy" when appropriate, sounds like a lot of fun.  I'm in.

Stimpy

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2020, 11:07:42 AM »
Here is a warning for inexperienced investors not to get in over their heads

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/business/robinhood-suicide-alex-kearns/index.html

Right, take it slow, and just don't be afraid to lose out on an opportunity when your still learning the ropes.  Options can be profitable, as Financial.Velociraptor has stated, but make sure you understand all risks before playing the game.  No one here wants to see that type of thing happen to anyone here!

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2020, 12:04:38 PM »
Here is a warning for inexperienced investors not to get in over their heads
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/business/robinhood-suicide-alex-kearns/index.html
A 20 year old saw a $-700,000 balance and killed themselves over it.  But the balance was temporary per transactions that hadn't settled, so he misunderstood the situation.  He could have asked what it meant, and not killed himself.  Or he could have declared bankruptcy and not killed himself.  As a moral warning, it kinda falls apart when examined closely.  But maybe it's worth talking about investment risk.

I'm fine with removing the most risky moves from discussion: margin loans (aka "leverage"), uncovered calls (buying a stock regardless of price), selling stock short (paying for unlimited upside).  I think those are the only ways where a smaller investment can wipe out an entire account.  Did I miss any?  I'm okay leaving those out of the discussion - to limit the risk of the approaches discussed here.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2020, 12:26:04 PM »
I'd prefer going slowly, myself.  In March/April I covered a lot of ground, going from passive investor to market timer buying dozens of individual stocks.  It's likely once COVID is over, I will revert back to a mostly passive investor, with a standard US/international/bond allocation.  But in all this excitement, I think it's prudent I have a chunk of "play money" that I can experiment on, to keep me away from meddling with my main portfolio.

Let's say I'm like most of MMM back in 2019, and I have a total stock market ETF, a total international ETF, and a bond allocation.  Is there something small and low risk they could do that provides a small but very reliable return?  Or is that a dangerous way to get into options, by not seeing the risks?

Pretty much dittoes for me. I want to go play first before I get into the more complex stuff. Might we have you back for a topic on advanced heresy later?

Just remember 2 things:

1) When you buy an option, your maximum loss is 100% of the amount spent. Luckily, you don’t have to spend much in normal circumstances to buy a lot of leverage.

2) When you sell an option, your maximum losses can go astronomical. For short calls, the possible losses are theoretically infinity minus premium received. For short puts, the possible losses are the entire strike price, minus premium received.

You cannot possibly “blow up” your portfolio buying small amounts of options. Of course your portfolio could hit 100% losses if you went “all in”, but there’s no need to get that greedy because you’re already working with leverage. Selling is a whole other ballgame, where a seemingly small position can lose a lot more. Usually your broker will set some guardrails around naked selling, e.g. selling a call without owning the stock to be called away.


bthewalls

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2020, 12:53:16 PM »
@Financial.Velociraptor,
Ive been trying to work out how to do this on DEGIRO for a long time and no further forward. Seem to have limits on what I can choose.

Ever considering showing this on a youtube?

Will need to digest this thread.....very good and thanks

baz

Stimpy

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2020, 03:04:36 PM »
...   But maybe it's worth talking about investment risk.

I'm fine with removing the most risky moves from discussion: margin loans (aka "leverage"), uncovered calls (buying a stock regardless of price), selling stock short (paying for unlimited upside).  I think those are the only ways where a smaller investment can wipe out an entire account.  Did I miss any?  I'm okay leaving those out of the discussion - to limit the risk of the approaches discussed here.

Probably did, but, I believe those are the main big ones.  And yea best to leave those out, but also good to point those out as existing, in case someone interested in this "heresy" comes along and isn't aware of them.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #42 on: June 24, 2020, 03:19:48 PM »
...   But maybe it's worth talking about investment risk.

I'm fine with removing the most risky moves from discussion: margin loans (aka "leverage"), uncovered calls (buying a stock regardless of price), selling stock short (paying for unlimited upside).  I think those are the only ways where a smaller investment can wipe out an entire account.  Did I miss any?  I'm okay leaving those out of the discussion - to limit the risk of the approaches discussed here.

Probably did, but, I believe those are the main big ones.  And yea best to leave those out, but also good to point those out as existing, in case someone interested in this "heresy" comes along and isn't aware of them.

Selling a put has a risk profile of the entire strike price minus premium received. So if I sell a put at a $35 strike for $0.50, and then the scandal breaks and the stock goes to $0.50, I just lost $34.00 on a $0.50 trade. I'd call that a blowup.

Credit spreads and other multi-leg strategies can also generate losses many times in excess of premium received.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2020, 08:20:05 PM »
@Financial.Velociraptor,
Ive been trying to work out how to do this on DEGIRO for a long time and no further forward. Seem to have limits on what I can choose.

Ever considering showing this on a youtube?

Will need to digest this thread.....very good and thanks

baz

Baz,

I don't follow.  What is DEGIRO?

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #44 on: June 24, 2020, 09:12:16 PM »
bthewalls - Have you signed an "options agreement" with your broker?  In the U.S., you have to list years of experience in various areas (stocks, bonds, options) and how many trades you make per year, and the value of each trade.  I did not have access to option trades until my broker approved me for it.

ChpBstrd - I wrote/sold some cash covered puts this week, but at a $1 strike price.  My maximum loss is $-100 per contract, and I was paid $30 to $40 each to take on that risk for whoever bought the put option.  Going forward, I probably won't use cash covered puts on other stocks.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #45 on: June 25, 2020, 02:30:38 AM »
I'm thinking of replacing one deeply discounted stock with long-dated call options.  So I would sell the stock, buy equivalent call options, and free up some cash.  But I would need to have that cash available later for "rolling forward"?  Meaning when Jan 2022 gets closer, I sell my call and purchase longer-dated options - I would pay a premium for that, which eats into the cash I set aside earlier.

If COVID-19 ends by Jan 2022, the strategy frees up cash and has the same profit.  But if I wait for mid-2021 and nothing changes, I'll need to replace my Jan 2022 calls with Jan 2023 (or so).  I'll need to pay the price difference between selling my call option to someone else, and buying a new call option.  Is that roughly the right idea and terminology?

A long-dated call:
(1) Frees up cash up front, or can be used to add leverage
(2) As time passes, "roll forward" costs are needed to keep the call active.  I replace the old calls by new ones.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #46 on: June 25, 2020, 12:29:08 PM »
I'm thinking of replacing one deeply discounted stock with long-dated call options.  So I would sell the stock, buy equivalent call options, and free up some cash.  But I would need to have that cash available later for "rolling forward"?  Meaning when Jan 2022 gets closer, I sell my call and purchase longer-dated options - I would pay a premium for that, which eats into the cash I set aside earlier.

If COVID-19 ends by Jan 2022, the strategy frees up cash and has the same profit.  But if I wait for mid-2021 and nothing changes, I'll need to replace my Jan 2022 calls with Jan 2023 (or so).  I'll need to pay the price difference between selling my call option to someone else, and buying a new call option.  Is that roughly the right idea and terminology?

A long-dated call:
(1) Frees up cash up front, or can be used to add leverage
(2) As time passes, "roll forward" costs are needed to keep the call active.  I replace the old calls by new ones.

Yes, that’s a good synopsis of cash & calls, played long term. Note, however that buy & hold will outperform cash & calls if the market is flat. With calls & cash, you lose the entire time value in a flat market. With buy & hold, your return would be only zero instead of negative.

Your long call could also lose value if volatility decreases. I don’t think now is the ideal time to enter positions involving a long option. The reason is that volatility is still historically high. VIX is in the 30s instead of the teens. That means options are more expensive than usual, and with less upside potential due to volatility. The ideal time to buy into a protected put or cash & calls strategy is when prices and high and volatility is low, like VIX < 15.

If you need a limited-risk place to put money today, consider a collar strategy, which is a combination of a protective put and a covered call. The short call pays for the long put. If you buy a put and sell a call at a net price near zero, you are hedged against falling or rising volatility. You are volatility neutral as they say. Note that you are also time decay neutral!

The payoff structure allows for limited gains and limited losses. This is hardly a time to take big risks or get greedy so the collar strategy may be the perfect way to control SORR while catching some stock market upside if it occurs. E.g. you could set up a collar so your returns can only be somewhere between 10% and -10% in a year, and still spend about 100% of your stock allocation on stocks.

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #47 on: June 25, 2020, 07:37:16 PM »
ChpBstrd - I'm glad I'm using those terms right, and understanding one of the trade offs.  I did not think about the impact of option pricing on volatility, I'll try and internalize that.

I should explain why I don't want to sell covered calls on my individual stock picks.  I bought individual stocks like DIN, M, DXPE back in late March at discounts -67% or more, meaning these stocks could triple in a recovery.  Take Dine Brands (DIN $41.27) with a 52 week high of $104.47.  If DIN recovered tomorrow to it's 52 week high, it more than doubles.  Macy's would more than triple, and so on.  I don't want to sell covered calls because I'm waiting for their recovery, which could be dramatic.

I want to understand roll costs, where it looks to me like stock price and time are both factors in option pricing.  Looking at the options chain for for Macy's stock (NYSE:M @ $6.50):
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/M/options?p=M

Call options for Macy's (M $6.50) with strike price of $6 ... and then $7:
July 17 2020:  0.92 ... 0.46    (imply volat  104% ... 107%)
Aug 21 2020:  1.23 ... 0.83    (imply volat    97% ... 100%)
...
Jan 15 2021:  1.92 ... 1.54    (imply volat     90% ... 91%)
Feb 19 2021:  2.00 ... 1.62    (imply volat   102% ... 86%)

For the Macy's $7 call options, the Aug option costs +80% compared to the July option, which is a very steep roll forward.  For the 2021 options, Jan costs just +5% to roll into Feb.  (For the $8 strike, it costs about 5.4% per month to roll forward a year - but there's no $6 or $7 options for 2022).

The Macy's $6 call options are cheaper to roll forward, +34% for July to Aug, and +4.2% for Jan to Feb.  What should I learn from that?
And also, is a 4% to 5% long-term roll forward cost reasonable, or is it much higher owing to volatility?

KBecks

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #48 on: June 26, 2020, 06:54:54 AM »
I think all options investors need to choose their underlying stocks carefully. I trade options on stocks where I have decent knowledge about the company and I trade around long portfolio positions. Quality long positions are the foundation of my investing.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Options heretics thread - by request
« Reply #49 on: June 26, 2020, 08:15:58 AM »
My latest options shenanigan:

I got into NLY with a short 6 strike put on 16MAY2020.  I have since been writing 6.5 strike covered calls.  I had one that was expiring in the money tomorrow.  Yesterday, I rolled out to 31JULY2020 (same strike.)  Why? NLY goes ex-div on Monday.  By rolling my expiry, I should have enough time value on Monday to avoid assignment and collect the 22 cent divvy.  As a bonus, the roll created a net credit of 12 cents (19.73% annualized return).  I did take a short term loss on closing the old call as it was deeper in the money than my original premium.  But the replacement had high nominal premium b/c it was similarly in the money. 

Assuming I collect the distribution and have shares called away in late July, my return for the roll, all things considered will be 138.11% annualized. 

Honestly, I'm hopeful for a slight pullback by then so I can roll again but "up and out" to the 7 strike to keep shares and continue writing calls at a higher strike with more unrealized cap gains in my back pocket.  NLY has treated me very well and is up 33% (almost 37 assuming I collect the distribution on Monday) since just mid May.  I just wish I had the stones to buy when it was in the dumpster at 3.51!

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!