I would resist understanding the pricing as some kind of narrative, where human characters think something so they do something.
Options are priced by mathematical models, which is to say a lot could happen between now and early next year.
Examples:
1) China could take the opportunity to invade Taiwan while the US is hobbled by Covid and between presidents.
2) The Big One could hit California or the New Madrid fault.
3) A tsunami.
4) A rogue trader that costs hundreds of billions.
5) An accounting scandal.
6) Russia could invade Ukraine and/or Georgia.
7) Trump supporters Right wing militia groups could launch an armed insurgency, do a lot of damage, and raise a lot of uncertainty.
8) The market could tank 30-40% for no reason at all, with weaker companies falling harder.
9) A new mutation of Covid could come out, such as the one just identified in Denmark jumping between minks and humans, rending all our vaccine trials moot.
10) Hackers steal billions from AIG.
11) The US dollar collapses.
12) A US nuclear power plant melts down.
13) India and Pakistan go to war.
14) Iran shuts down the Straits of Hormuz.
15) The Euro or European Union appears likely to collapse.
16) A nation unexpectedly defaults on its debt.
17) Options traders rush to exit a crowded trade, and are forced to sell AIG stock.
18) Another company could make an offer for AIG 30-40% above the market cap.
etc...
