We don't know what's going on in their bookkeeping, but it's impossible for a company like CCL with fixed expenses to go from a $500m loss one quarter to a $2b loss the next quarter with zero revenue the entire time. The only way for that to happen is with some kind of delayed write-offs. No other way.
Which quarter did that happen? I poked around in their 10-Q:
Feb 2020 shows $4.8B revenue, $5.5B expenses, total loss $0.7B
May 2020 shows $0.7B revenue, $4.9B expenses, total loss $4.2B
Aug 2020 shows no revenue and $2.9B in expenses / losses.
--> payroll slashed by $0.5B, and "ship and other impairments" hits $0.9B
For Nov 2020, I think they use a 10-K which I didn't look into.
Feb 2021, no revenue on $2.0B in losses.
May 2021, no revenue and $2.0B in losses.
https://www.carnivalcorp.com/financial-information/sec-filings/carnival-plcAnyways, I hope your trade goes well and you get another 150% return at a minimum. Please keep my observations in mind as CCL reports in the next 3 or 4 quarters. Feel free to come back here and say how right or wrong I was.
Thanks, although there's almost no chance of that happening. If CCL recovers into the $27-$32 range, I'll start selling. Last year I bought at lower prices, and less volatility (volatility acts as a tax on options - time value costs more).
Their revenue is minimal: $50M per quarter on expenses in the billions... but this quarter they're ramping up cruises, which should show up in their next 10-Q. Since 10-Q is filed 5 weeks after the fact, there's probably a more timely source for that information.
Today CCL is up +5%, but that could just be investors realizing they oversold. I think it will be months before we see if they're making a healthy amount of cash or not. People have been unable to go on cruises for over a year, so I think there will be plenty of interest.