Author Topic: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!  (Read 39111 times)

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #150 on: February 04, 2019, 01:44:42 PM »
I couldn't help but notice that Leows (ticker: $L) is trading at 80% of its book value. It appears to be a conglomerate.

I bid on some call options, but I was too low and the order didn't fill.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #151 on: February 27, 2019, 09:37:14 PM »
$100 soon. I hope.

bwall

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #152 on: February 28, 2019, 09:03:11 AM »

If you're in to bio pharma cancer research stocks, I'd recommend LOXO, new listing, two products now in Phase II studies and smaller market cap than EXAS. They already have one marketing/sales agreement with Bayer. Ripe for a takeover, or better.

As always, do your homework.

Hey that was a good call!  I hope you followed your own advice and had shares when the buyout was announced.

Congrats!

Just now saw the post. Thanks for the well wishes. I kept all my shares. Didn't do as well as I liked, but over 100% return in a year is hard to complain about. I beat the S&P again in 2018. More dumb luck than stock picking or trading skill.

I'm surprised that EXAS is doing as well as it is. Last summer you said it was a great stock and I didn't see it even when you served it up to me on a silver platter.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #153 on: May 02, 2019, 01:40:33 PM »
EXAS looks pretty good all dressed up in a $100 bill.

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #154 on: May 03, 2019, 09:21:27 AM »
I just activated the "brokerage link" within my 401(k).

Took all the money in my employer's stock, and put it into $SLYV and $DLS.

Small-cap value, set it and forget it!

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #155 on: June 10, 2019, 09:50:47 AM »
EXAS keeping on doing what it does.

Iím sure yíall have seen the ads for Cologuard on TV. theyíre still in the early stages but on their way to dominating the CRC screening market. And their pipeline of other cancer tests is looking strong.

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #156 on: July 06, 2019, 11:45:31 AM »
As I said before you don't get this kind of excitement with index funds.

great call on that pizzabrewer! We can't say we weren't tipped on EXAS!!

A Fella from Stella

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #157 on: July 16, 2019, 12:53:14 PM »
A story: I'm 21 and have an Ameritrade account. I start making big "investments" with half my pay based on what I later learned were press releases, not real news.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #158 on: July 31, 2019, 10:50:35 AM »
Well this is the place to brag, right?  EXAS again.  On Monday it was announced that they had agreed to buy Genomic Health for $2.8 billion.  For some reason it is customary for Wall Street to punish the stock of an acquiring company and EXAS dropped from ~$120 down to about $103 Monday morning.  As it dropped I bought some weekly call options, $120 strike at 20 cents (20 contracts) and $118 strike at 15 cents (28 contracts).  Total investment (bet) was $870.

As I expected/hoped, the price rebounded nicely and is back around $120.  I've sold 20 of the $118 contracts for over $6000.  The remaining 28 contracts are worth about $8k right now.  Maybe I should sell but I'm hoping for a $30-40k windfall.  That'll happen if the stock tops $125 in the next day or 2.  Not entirely out of the question.

Greedy?  Perhaps. 

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #159 on: August 01, 2019, 10:43:24 AM »
Well this is the place to brag, right?  EXAS again.  On Monday it was announced that they had agreed to buy Genomic Health for $2.8 billion.  For some reason it is customary for Wall Street to punish the stock of an acquiring company and EXAS dropped from ~$120 down to about $103 Monday morning.  As it dropped I bought some weekly call options, $120 strike at 20 cents (20 contracts) and $118 strike at 15 cents (28 contracts).  Total investment (bet) was $870.

As I expected/hoped, the price rebounded nicely and is back around $120.  I've sold 20 of the $118 contracts for over $6000.  The remaining 28 contracts are worth about $8k right now.  Maybe I should sell but I'm hoping for a $30-40k windfall.  That'll happen if the stock tops $125 in the next day or 2.  Not entirely out of the question.

Greedy?  Perhaps.

nice one PB!!

Maybe buy some insurance on that pony you're riding when it goes to 130 and buy some cheap puts?

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #160 on: August 01, 2019, 09:23:25 PM »
I should have sold the rest...

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #161 on: December 06, 2020, 11:17:08 AM »
New stock pick:  RECAF. Itís a small ($200 million market cap) junior oil exploration company. Not usually my kind of thing but I was tipped by a lifelong friend who spent his career as a geologist in the oil biz.

Anyway the company has exclusive rights to what looks like the biggest onshore oil find in decades. They have 25-year exploration and development leases for 8.75 million acres, covering the entire basin.  Itís no fly-by-night outfit, the principals and consultants are veteran successful oilfield pros. And they have a lot of their own money in the game. Their rig will begin drilling exploratory wells within 2 months. If they prove the reserves, the company will be worth many multiples of its current value.

How big are the reserves?  Estimates vary wildly, from 1 billion to 100+ billion barrels. Itís being compared to West Texas.

If anyone wants to learn more thereís plenty of videos and data on the website. A good place to start is here. https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR3qV2IRTDUMD-5z1wcrfuiUal1TpUD4rPRgjs2uSrBLidGkwUaHshVR_E0&feature=youtu.be&v=8R1T7QwOnSQ


Yeah, I know, this sounds like the same fishy pitch weíve all heard many times before. But I plunked down $3k on the stock, my geologist buddy bought $10k. My average price is a buck, his is 72 cents.

One way or another itíll be an interesting couple of months...
« Last Edit: December 06, 2020, 11:19:10 AM by Pizzabrewer »

bwall

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #162 on: December 07, 2020, 06:51:13 AM »
@Pizzabrewer

OMG! That is incredibly risky. A Canadian company with 7 employees (!) that only holds an oil and gas license in Africa. What could possibly go wrong? As per their own info:

"Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd, formerly Lund Enterprises Corporation, is an oil and gas company. The Company is engaged in the exploration and development of oil and gas in Namibia. The Company holds interest in a petroleum exploration license in northeast Namibia, which covers the entire Kavango sedimentary basin."

So, the first company (Lund) already went out of business and they re-branded the stock as Reconnaissance Energy Africa. Think; reverse merger. Lund had no value left other than their stock listing. So these 7 guys get together and buy the defunct company consisting of only a stock listing, make wild claims about ownership/property rights in Africa, issue new shares,  and.... now what? Again, they only 'hold interest in a petroleum exploration license"; meaning, they don't own it outright, therefore they must also have a partner. Who is that partner? What are the terms of that deal?
Going back to the 'reverse merger' method of listing stock--by buying up Lund, Recon. didn't have to submit documents and go through all the due diligence of an IPO. They just updated their info onto the old info by Lund. It's cheaper, of course, but also it hides all the risk for investors. It's the same method by which many many Chinese companies get listed on the NYSE/NASDAQ and then burn the investors.
And, as for Canadian resource extraction companies, I'd encourage any potential investor in that sector to review the cautionary tale of Bre-X: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bre-X That stuff actually happened in a Western country with stock market oversight, a questioning media, rule of law, etc.

Now, Namibia is one of the better run countries in S. Africa, but property rights there aren't the same as in the West. Stuff gets nationalized there all the time. Sam Nujoma tried to kick white farmers off the land in Namibia, with mixed results. He couldn't quite pull off the same trick as Mugabe in next door Zimbabwe.

OK, I just looked on the map on their website where their license claim/rights are. It's right next to Angola and the Caprivi Strip. The southern part of war-torn Angola ruled by Jonas Savimbi for 30 years (or so) until his death in 2002. Will it stay stable and peaceful? Well, as long as no oil or gas is found, why shouldn't it? Back in the 1980's no one went into the Caprivi Strip--it was no man's land. Most of the new large oil and gas deposits found today are found in risky places in the world and this one is no exception.

So, I'd put the chance of a total loss of your investment at about 40%. Since your cost basis is $1 and closing price on Friday was $1.74, I'd put the chance of a 70% return also at 40%. The other 20% I'd say is the chance of a less than total loss.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #163 on: December 07, 2020, 03:34:49 PM »
Yup, you're right, it sounds incredibly risky and is not something I'd ever normally consider.

The difference here is my lifelong friend, an oilfield geologist with 40 years' experience, who vouches for the science and who knows all the principals either personally or by reputation.  is that a guarantee?  No.

Yup, they bought out Lund to speed up stock listing.  It's done all the time, for reasons both legitimate and nefarious. 

They hold a 90% interest in the leases with the other 10% held by the Namibian government.  The government also will get a 5% royalty on all revenues generated (compared to the 25% royalties in West Texas).  Several major oil companies are already doing business offshore in Namibia, so far no seizures or nationalization of assets.  If RECAF does prove the reserves it's likely one or more of those majors will partner and/or buy them out. 

Thanks for your DD on the violence in the neighboring countries.  That's not something I've looked into but will do further research.

Yes there is a non-zero chance of losing my entire investment.  Losing $3k wouldn't be fun but wouldn't affect our finances very much.  It's a calculated risk for a potential enormous payoff.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2020, 03:43:54 PM by Pizzabrewer »

bwall

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #164 on: December 08, 2020, 06:24:15 AM »
Well, it sounds like you're going into the trade with eyes wide open in regards to all the risks which is about the best position to be in.

Best of luck! Let us know how the trade ends once you've exited your position.

BoostJunky

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #165 on: December 08, 2020, 08:32:00 AM »
Well this is the place to brag, right?  EXAS again.  On Monday it was announced that they had agreed to buy Genomic Health for $2.8 billion.  For some reason it is customary for Wall Street to punish the stock of an acquiring company and EXAS dropped from ~$120 down to about $103 Monday morning.  As it dropped I bought some weekly call options, $120 strike at 20 cents (20 contracts) and $118 strike at 15 cents (28 contracts).  Total investment (bet) was $870.

As I expected/hoped, the price rebounded nicely and is back around $120.  I've sold 20 of the $118 contracts for over $6000.  The remaining 28 contracts are worth about $8k right now.  Maybe I should sell but I'm hoping for a $30-40k windfall.  That'll happen if the stock tops $125 in the next day or 2.  Not entirely out of the question.

Greedy?  Perhaps.

Awesome job on this one.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #166 on: January 12, 2021, 04:50:29 PM »
RECAF is heating up. Theyíve started drilling the first exploratory well this week and the stock has spiked up sharply. Lots of FOMO. Thereís still a good chance of a total bust but if itís a home run it just got closer.

Oh, and EXAS is now $150 after strong Q4 numbers.

BoostJunky

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #167 on: January 13, 2021, 08:37:42 AM »
RECAF is heating up. Theyíve started drilling the first exploratory well this week and the stock has spiked up sharply. Lots of FOMO. Thereís still a good chance of a total bust but if itís a home run it just got closer.

Oh, and EXAS is now $150 after strong Q4 numbers.

Been following this one as well, I hopped out last week (1.98) and then of course Monday morning they announce more drilling. (I bought it at 1.59) I always seem to dump right before it spikes. It's at 2.75 now which makes me nervous to get back in so high with so much speculation.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 08:40:02 AM by BoostJunky »

time is money

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #168 on: January 13, 2021, 09:51:33 AM »
Been keeping an eye on this company. Incredible story, almost too good to be true. Well done on getting in for a buck. Any ideas at all what could be the share price range if the results from drilling are good?

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #169 on: January 16, 2021, 03:45:08 PM »
RECAF hit $3.25 yesterday at the close.  No news, it appears to be some panicked FOMO buying.  Whatever the company is about to find is getting very close.  For better or worse the train is leaving the station.

Been keeping an eye on this company. Incredible story, almost too good to be true. Well done on getting in for a buck. Any ideas at all what could be the share price range if the results from drilling are good?

To answer your question, there's lots of wild predictions out there.  I'm seeing forecasts of $500-$1000 per share or more.  While that is possible (and makes for fun daydreaming), it's pretty remote. 

I look at it as a series of de-risking events.  The company has just started drilling the first of three exploratory wells.  They are not looking to strike oil with these (although that would not be unwelcome), but rather to prove the existence of a petroleum system in the region.  This source rock, at sufficient depth and thickness, would indicate oil production is/has been possible.  This is the next de-risking step and if successful would probably drive the share price to $20-$50.  We should have this data by April.

Once a system has been proven, the next step is to find the actual oil.  This depends a lot on the geology;  the existence of trap basins, proper seal rock (without a top seal oil will work its way to the surface and evaporate), and any other number of variables. 

Once oil reserves are proven it is a matter of scale.  The lower estimates of 1 billion barrels of recoverable oil probably mean the company is worth $30-50 per share.  If it is indeed a new Midland Basin, with upwards of 100 billion barrels, you could indeed see share prices in the hundreds.  Thousands?  It's fun to dream.  But it's also possible to find oil that's not of sufficient quantity, quality and cost of extraction to make it commercially viable.

Obviously there's a lot of potential roadblocks on the way.  If the reserves prove to be mostly gas, or "tight" oil requiring fracking, then extraction, processing and transport costs will be higher than if it is (as hoped) an easily pumped "conventional" play. 

The company is comprised of successful oilfield pros who don't need this on their resume, indeed a few have come out of retirement for this opportunity.  I'm no expert but my good friend who spent his career as an oilfield geologist, has invested about 10x what I have in this stock.  So it's my "moonshot" stock.  I'm optimistic.

« Last Edit: January 17, 2021, 01:59:07 AM by Pizzabrewer »