Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 247013 times)

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1000 on: March 02, 2018, 07:45:45 AM »
Whew I put up a LOT of information there and the two direct replies were either a complete misreading (first one) or harping on an ancillary point that again actually misreads what I wrote.

You did say that "the market always goes up" is "unscientific". Without getting into a philosophy of science debate, you are saying that you question whether the economy of the world/US will continue to grow (as, in the case of the world, it has since prehistory, albeit with some fits and starts), essentially. If you actually believe that, then yes, you will need either a metric ton of money, or some alternative investment/consistent winning in the now-zero-sum game in order to be FI.

Might just as well invest in fertile land and ammunition at that point, not "currency" that requires a ton of energy and computers/internet access just to use/spend, but everyone's different. 

-W

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1001 on: March 02, 2018, 08:08:17 AM »
I can see a legitimate governmental use for perfect unhackable cryptography.  I don't see many legitimate private uses yet, but I sure do see a whole bunch of illegitimate and dangerous and illegal ones.

If cryptography fundamentally undermines the basic social contract on which civilization is built, do we really want everyone to have unlimited access to it? Do we really have a choice anymore?

This seems a bit melodramatic.  why can't your thoughts be private?

With the internet providing a stored record of everything, my kids thoughts aren't private anymore. All the stupid shit I thought and said growing up, as a teenage, in college is behind me and there isn't any Facebook timeline of.  Now, if I am interested in an obscure topic and research it a bit, all of my banner adds change to match .    if cryptography gives the privacy to explore an idea before you decide if you like it or not that's something I support.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1002 on: March 02, 2018, 09:14:34 AM »
Whew I put up a LOT of information there and the two direct replies were either a complete misreading (first one) or harping on an ancillary point that again actually misreads what I wrote.

You did say that "the market always goes up" is "unscientific". Without getting into a philosophy of science debate, you are saying that you question whether the economy of the world/US will continue to grow (as, in the case of the world, it has since prehistory, albeit with some fits and starts), essentially. If you actually believe that, then yes, you will need either a metric ton of money, or some alternative investment/consistent winning in the now-zero-sum game in order to be FI.

Might just as well invest in fertile land and ammunition at that point, not "currency" that requires a ton of energy and computers/internet access just to use/spend, but everyone's different. 

-W

The basic approach of the scientific method is to posit a hypothesis and attempt to disprove it.  There is no structural mechanism for proving something conclusively true.  This isn't philosophy, it's the bedrock of scientific reason that brought us out of medieval thinking.

What we can do is make statistical estimates about growth rates and volatility, and use confidence intervals to model a likely range of outcomes. 

What is true is that as growth rates shrink, and/or volatility increases, the wider a range of likely (95%) outcomes that include prolonged downturns or sideways stretches. 

Conflating the advancement of human civilization with the continued returns of the equities market is philosophical optimism, not scientific analysis.

As mustachians we have a core belief in restraint and conservation.  The world would be a vastly better place if there were a paradigm shift away from corporate profits and towards long term sustainability.  In some small way we are betting against our fundamental beliefs when we ride the backs of the corporations, many of whom do much to harm our species long term viability for short term gains.

We are financially incentivized to participate between tax advantages, corporate matching, and the simple fact that owning stocks is the best way to obtain a small slice of these short term gains. 

Ignoring the statistical risks, or investing from an illusory moral high ground, is not scientific.  We do it because it is likely to work, and having more money enables us to lead lives of value.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1003 on: March 02, 2018, 09:20:22 AM »

I said in order to liquidate your investment you must have someone to sell the shares(or have the firm liquidate all its assets, whatever's left after satisfying their debts). 



No. This is not what you said.  You said that a "bigger fool" must be present.  This is simply wrong in the context of stocks.  Bigger fools are not required.

Maybe we have a misunderstanding here.  My exact sentence was that in order to liquidate your shares there must be someone to sell them to.  The concept of "bigger fool" is an emotional label that you used, and i re-used for illustrative purposes.  Are you saying that the people buying shares are not fools?  Because that's an issue of labeling. 

If you are saying they are not necessary, then how are you going to liquidate your assets without them?  I understand dividends and other mechanisms, but if you have 1M in an index fund and the market stops growing, and there is no one to buy your shares, where does that leave you? 

Just food for thought that you may not think you need "fools" but every time a 20something shows up and says "wow does this really work" her adoption of our collective investment strategy directly benefits us all.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1004 on: March 02, 2018, 10:23:02 AM »
The basic approach of the scientific method is to posit a hypothesis and attempt to disprove it.  There is no structural mechanism for proving something conclusively true.  This isn't philosophy, it's the bedrock of scientific reason that brought us out of medieval thinking.

Ok, so we're getting very metaphysical here, and maybe we'll have to agree to disagree - but there is no "science" in the sense you are talking about involved here. We are not doing experiments under controlled conditions or testing hypotheses. Rather, we are making educated statistical guesses about what will happen in the future based on what has happened in the past.

Even if you can start doing futuristic Asimov style psychohistorical science, what on earth makes you think cryptocurrencies are a good alternative to the stock market? You can certainly believe that stocks are going to all be worthless/return nothing going forward, but that really has nothing to do with crypto being a good alternative investment, does it? If you don't like stocks, there are bonds, real estate of both the arms-length and DIY varieties, direct lending of all sorts of levels of risk, business franchises, etc.

-W

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the_gastropod

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1006 on: March 02, 2018, 09:12:22 PM »

I said in order to liquidate your investment you must have someone to sell the shares(or have the firm liquidate all its assets, whatever's left after satisfying their debts). 



No. This is not what you said.  You said that a "bigger fool" must be present.  This is simply wrong in the context of stocks.  Bigger fools are not required.

Maybe we have a misunderstanding here.  My exact sentence was that in order to liquidate your shares there must be someone to sell them to.  The concept of "bigger fool" is an emotional label that you used, and i re-used for illustrative purposes.  Are you saying that the people buying shares are not fools?  Because that's an issue of labeling. 

If you are saying they are not necessary, then how are you going to liquidate your assets without them?  I understand dividends and other mechanisms, but if you have 1M in an index fund and the market stops growing, and there is no one to buy your shares, where does that leave you? 

Just food for thought that you may not think you need "fools" but every time a 20something shows up and says "wow does this really work" her adoption of our collective investment strategy directly benefits us all.

I don't want to speak for L.A.S., but I suspect they're referring to price vs value. Stocks have a value (ownership in a productive business). Cryptocurrencies have no value (in the economic sense—they're unproductive assets). Things with value can be priced at least somewhat objectively. There can, of course, be differences of opinion, but the price is ultimately grounded in reality. Valueless assets (cryptocurrencies, paintings, beanie babies, rare coins, etc.) have no rational basis for their price. They are speculative. Speculative investments depend on "bigger fools" to purchase them from you. Productive assets depend on rational actors.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1007 on: March 02, 2018, 09:24:28 PM »
It's worth noting that there certainly can be a scenario where nobody will buy your stocks from you, and you are screwed.

In the grand scheme of things, that's the asteroid-impact/zombie apocalypse scenario, though, so who cares? You're dead.

-W

misterhorsey

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1008 on: March 03, 2018, 05:37:08 AM »

I said in order to liquidate your investment you must have someone to sell the shares(or have the firm liquidate all its assets, whatever's left after satisfying their debts). 



No. This is not what you said.  You said that a "bigger fool" must be present.  This is simply wrong in the context of stocks.  Bigger fools are not required.

Maybe we have a misunderstanding here.  My exact sentence was that in order to liquidate your shares there must be someone to sell them to.  The concept of "bigger fool" is an emotional label that you used, and i re-used for illustrative purposes.  Are you saying that the people buying shares are not fools?  Because that's an issue of labeling. 

If you are saying they are not necessary, then how are you going to liquidate your assets without them?  I understand dividends and other mechanisms, but if you have 1M in an index fund and the market stops growing, and there is no one to buy your shares, where does that leave you? 

Just food for thought that you may not think you need "fools" but every time a 20something shows up and says "wow does this really work" her adoption of our collective investment strategy directly benefits us all.

There's definitely a misunderstanding in terminology here.

The greater fool theory is not an emotional label. The 'greater fool theory' describes a form of speculation. It's where someone buys an asset (and that can be crypto, tulips, stocks, bonds, real estate) and has a sincere belief that although that the price of that asset is no longer accurately correlated with the value of the asset, they are willing to buy it in order to sell shortly afterwards at a profit.  The speculator in this instance may believe the asset is priced well above it's value, or they may believe it has no intrinsic value.  However, they do not care. They are buying the asset, in order to sell it, to a 'greater fool' who will happily pay more for it.

Forgive me for citing wikipedia here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

But when you sell stocks, you aren't necessarily selling them because you think they aren't worth anything, and want to offload them to a 'bigger' or 'greater fool'.  You may actually need to liquidate stocks for other reasons. For example, you can't buy food with stocks - and you might want to eat! So you sell some shares for cash.  You could also be in a position where you believe your stocks to be a certain value, where you believe that the value may well increase, but you still decide to sell these stocks.  This is simply liquidating a position from stocks to cash.  You may then use that cash to invest in a different asset class that may be more attractive for other reasons.

I could be wrong, but your post seems to suggest that the only time one would ever sell stocks is to liquidate your entire position.   Or if you no longer believe they are of value.

Another situation is where someone adjusts their asset allocation based on their age.  At age 70 it's prudent to adjust your asset allocation to more capital stable investments. You may decide to sell stocks in exchange for cash, but it's not because you don't believe they are of value but because you prefer the stability of cash over the volatility of stocks.  The buyer might be a 20 year old just starting out in investment. The value of the stocks remains the same - however what is appropriate for each investor is relative to their own life circumstances.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1009 on: March 03, 2018, 09:14:10 AM »
Valueless assets (cryptocurrencies, paintings, beanie babies, rare coins, etc.) have no rational basis for their price.

Crypto has value. Dapps and other services require crypto; the form of digital social contract people are engaging in require crypto. People are using it as medium-of-exchanges.

Pokemon cards have value.  Engaging in a card based game of Pokemon requires them.  People even trade Pokemon cards, using them as a medium of exchange.

The problem with your argument is that each instance of 'value' brought forth is vanishingly small, and only of value to the tiny niche group of people who have bought into the hype.  This is also true of comic books, beanie babies, tulips, rare coins, etc.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1010 on: March 03, 2018, 12:27:40 PM »
Oh, come now. How many of those 13 million people are buying *anything* IRL with that crypto? How many are just trading crypto around with each other (or just buying/holding for "investment" purposes)?

I think "niche" is a fair term here. It's well established that you can buy virtually nothing with crypto, and if you do, it'll probably cost you a fortune/take forever/get you defrauded.

-W

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1011 on: March 03, 2018, 01:18:59 PM »
Valueless assets (cryptocurrencies, paintings, beanie babies, rare coins, etc.) have no rational basis for their price.

Crypto has value. Dapps and other services require crypto; the form of digital social contract people are engaging in require crypto. People are using it as medium-of-exchanges.

Pokemon cards have value.  Engaging in a card based game of Pokemon requires them.  People even trade Pokemon cards, using them as a medium of exchange.

The problem with your argument is that each instance of 'value' brought forth is vanishingly small, and only of value to the tiny niche group of people who have bought into the hype.  This is also true of comic books, beanie babies, tulips, rare coins, etc.

The difference from these collectibles is that some crypto generate fees for its hodlers. 'Delegates' in some crypto systems, which I'm not a fan of, earn transaction fees through validating the network. They are require to set up a crypto node or participate in a pool. Proof-of-stake systems will allow any hodler with a minimum, such as 1 unit, to validate the network, earning transaction fees. 

'Vanishingly small' and 'tiny niche group', where are you getting these numbers from? Coinbase alone has over 13 million users, verified with photo id and linked bank accounts. In one year, the number of transactions for one of the top crypto went from 50,000 to 750,000 daily with a high over 1.2 mil. Crypto usage has also seen rise for social network tips and charitable donations.   

Proof of stake just gives you more of the same thing, it's literally a circular argument in terms of value.

Let's be real here, the only value is to those who are needing illegal cross border transactions, those requiring anonymity or people of a very particular anti-centralised anything political persuasion. Everyone else is speculating that one day they will have a wider value to common people.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1012 on: March 03, 2018, 04:37:45 PM »
That crypto is being using as speculation does not mean that crypto is solely used for that. People are using crypto for various purposes, including entertainment and other purchases and services.

Thus far, you can't pay for rent, or groceries, or energy with cryptocurrencies.  Trading it back and forth between users for "entertainment" does not make it a currency.  I used to trade baseball cards back and forth with other baseball card enthusiasts, but we never mistook them for currency because we couldn't use them in the broader economy and they weren't backed by anyone. 

Even if you find a merchant who will accept payment in baseball cards, that STILL doesn't make them currency. 

misterhorsey

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1013 on: March 03, 2018, 07:51:43 PM »
Just because landlords, supermarkets or energy utilities don't accept cryptocurrency doesn't mean it's not a currency. If someone accepts crypto in exchange for goods and services, anticipating that they can then use that crypto to purchase goods and services, then it's a currency.

It's like tobacco or ramen in prison.  It's used as a store of value in a closed economic system.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/22/ramen-prison-currency-study

I don't think it serves the arguments of crypto skeptics to deny the utility of crypto currency, wherever one may find it. 

However, based on my understanding, that utility seems extremely limited.

As a currency they suffer some pretty significant draw backs.  They are nowhere near as universal as the USD, the Euro, Yen, AUD etc etc, and they are incredibly niche in their acceptance. Their volatility and high transaction fees make them very unattractive as a source of value exchange.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/6/16743220/valve-steam-bitcoin-game-store-payment-method-crypto-volatility

That may change in the future. But it may not.

One of the ironies I struggle to look beyond is that although the rationale behind the rapid price appreciation of crypto currencies is they represent the disruptive currencies of the future, yet at the moment, the rampant speculation resulting in extreme volatility of these crypto currencies actually renders them incredibly unattractive for actual use as a currency.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1014 on: March 04, 2018, 06:59:44 AM »
Just because landlords, supermarkets or energy utilities don't accept cryptocurrency doesn't mean it's not a currency. If someone accepts crypto in exchange for goods and services, anticipating that they can then use that crypto to purchase goods and services, then it's a currency.

It's like tobacco or ramen in prison.  It's used as a store of value in a closed economic system.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/22/ramen-prison-currency-study

I don't think it serves the arguments of crypto skeptics to deny the utility of crypto currency, wherever one may find it. 

However, based on my understanding, that utility seems extremely limited.

As a currency they suffer some pretty significant draw backs.  They are nowhere near as universal as the USD, the Euro, Yen, AUD etc etc, and they are incredibly niche in their acceptance. Their volatility and high transaction fees make them very unattractive as a source of value exchange.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/6/16743220/valve-steam-bitcoin-game-store-payment-method-crypto-volatility

That may change in the future. But it may not.

One of the ironies I struggle to look beyond is that although the rationale behind the rapid price appreciation of crypto currencies is they represent the disruptive currencies of the future, yet at the moment, the rampant speculation resulting in extreme volatility of these crypto currencies actually renders them incredibly unattractive for actual use as a currency.

Literally any good is a currency by this definition, because any good can be used as a store of value given the right circumstances.  Seems kinda goofy.  I think that you have to look as the other available stores of value in a system and compare them. Calling Pokemon cards or crypto a currency makes little sense when compared to the ubiquity and utility use of say, US dollars.

misterhorsey

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1015 on: March 04, 2018, 02:04:39 PM »
It's kind of my point to point out the goofiness.

Ultimately, any good has the potential to be a currency.  But that doesn't mean it makes a good currency.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131934618/the-island-of-stone-money

But there's a distinction between currencies, which are things traded for their function as a store of value, and collectables, things that are traded for their inherent and perceived value. Critics of crypto currency seem to sometimes miss this distinction when they lump crypto together with other subjects of speculative bubbles.

People might trade Pokemon cards, but that doesn't make it a currency. They don't use Pokemon as a  store of value that they exchange for goods or services, as far as I know.

There's no doubt that crypto currency is also the subject of a speculative bubble.

But my point is simply that denying the (extremely limited, niche and conditional) utility of crypto currency is to invite a counter argument establishing the utility from crypto currency users.  However accepting that it currently does have use as a currency, allows for a more qualitative assessment about the nature of that utility.

I guess I sense that among certain fans of crypto currency there's the belief that because crypto currency is accepted for payment in certain places, it's the portent of things to come.  But there's no magic or wizardry involved - all it takes is for a a consensus to use it. And that consensus doesn't have to be very big.  The internet allows a small group of people (relative to the larger economy) to use crypto currency, but be geographically spread out. For some, this may make the consensus seem larger than it really is.

And my reason for wanting to point all this out is that I think the better argument against crypto currency is simply to accept that yes, it can be used as a currency, but there are so many better options that do a better job as a currency (i.e. that are stable in value, universally accepted) why would you use it?

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1016 on: March 04, 2018, 05:21:30 PM »
there are so many better options that do a better job as a currency (i.e. that are stable in value, universally accepted) why would you use it?

1.  To move illegal drug money you can't transfer with a bank.

2.  To finance terrorist organizations without the FBI finding out.

3.  To support a rogue state, like North Korea, that is suffering under economic sanctions by the international community that prohibit direct contributions.

4.  As an unregulated penny stock you can pump and dump to get rich by misleading uninformed retail investors.

5.  For entertainment value, because you think the first four primary uses aren't at all concerning.


misterhorsey

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1017 on: March 04, 2018, 07:30:42 PM »
Ha yes, good points.

Actually one that you didn't mention is if you are a Chinese Prince-ling, or Russian Oligarch, or even a well to do person in a state that doesn't enforce the rule of law, and you wish subvert capital controls and move money out of your home country as otherwise it will always be subject to seizure by the state if you keep it there.

Mr Mark

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1018 on: March 04, 2018, 08:48:28 PM »
there are so many better options that do a better job as a currency (i.e. that are stable in value, universally accepted) why would you use it?

1.  To move illegal drug money you can't transfer with a bank.

2.  To finance terrorist organizations without the FBI finding out.

3.  To support a rogue state, like North Korea, that is suffering under economic sanctions by the international community that prohibit direct contributions.

4.  As an unregulated penny stock you can pump and dump to get rich by misleading uninformed retail investors.

5.  For entertainment value, because you think the first four primary uses aren't at all concerning.

And notice that none of these uses imparts an intrinsic relative value. As a agency of transfer it doesn't matter if a BTC costs $100000 or $1 as long as it's stable-ish while the transfer occurs.

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1019 on: March 05, 2018, 08:41:18 AM »
I'm always curious how much Pot is smoked by the people who hammer bitcoin first and foremost for being used for illegal drug purchases.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1020 on: March 05, 2018, 09:56:27 AM »
I'm always curious how much Pot is smoked by the people who hammer bitcoin first and foremost for being used for illegal drug purchases.

If that was directed at me, then the answer is "none".  My job precludes most types of drug use.

Not that it really matters.  The problem with drug money isn't privately owned US dispensaries that grow in a co-op, the problem is international cartels that murder people and put their dismembered heads on the backs of desert tortoises. 

I don't avoid flying because terrorists have used airplanes, because there are legitimate uses for airplanes.  Cryptocurrencies don't seem to have any legitimate uses in their design brief.  They were created for the sole purpose of breaking the law.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 10:46:58 AM by sol »

Travis

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1021 on: March 05, 2018, 12:08:37 PM »
there are so many better options that do a better job as a currency (i.e. that are stable in value, universally accepted) why would you use it?

1.  To move illegal drug money you can't transfer with a bank.

2.  To finance terrorist organizations without the FBI finding out.

3.  To support a rogue state, like North Korea, that is suffering under economic sanctions by the international community that prohibit direct contributions.

4.  As an unregulated penny stock you can pump and dump to get rich by misleading uninformed retail investors.

5.  For entertainment value, because you think the first four primary uses aren't at all concerning.

My modified #1 appears the be the closest thing to a legitimate use case for cryptocurrency; however, the only way a government will allow it to be considered a legitimate form of money is if it can be monitored and audited for reasons of #1-4 and for tax purposes.  I've seen far too many proponents talk about "getting one over on The Man" and avoiding the paper trails common with currency. That's not a benefit folks, that's a significant bar to being considered legal. 


James_001

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1023 on: March 14, 2018, 08:12:05 AM »
Has anyone invested in this? https://crypto20.com/en/

Its an index fund for the top 20 crypto coins. I would be curious to hear your thoughts...

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1024 on: March 14, 2018, 10:44:35 AM »
We interrupt these arguments to bring you some news:

Brazilian State Bank to Tokenize Brazilian Real on Ethereum’s Public Blockchain

Coinbase is launching a weighted index fund for cryptocurrencies.

In other news, Google is banning all cryptocurrency advertising from June onwards.

aspiringnomad

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1025 on: March 14, 2018, 09:10:46 PM »
We interrupt these arguments to bring you some news:

Brazilian State Bank to Tokenize Brazilian Real on Ethereum’s Public Blockchain

Coinbase is launching a weighted index fund for cryptocurrencies.

In other news, Google is banning all cryptocurrency advertising from June onwards.

Guess I'll stop seeing ads for that dorky turtle neck wearing "Crypto Genius" on these forums.


jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1027 on: March 19, 2018, 01:22:17 PM »
Guess I'll stop seeing ads for that dorky turtle neck wearing "Crypto Genius" on these forums.

Way up there on my list of people who I'd really like to punch.  Up there with him is that guy with the glasses in LA showing off his [rented] Beverly Hills house and [rented] Lambo. 

That second guy was a little late to the crypto circus, as illustrated by a video that appeared in late 2017 where you could tell he was trying to posit himself as the "crypto genius" while not quite knowing what he was talking about. 

Travis

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1028 on: March 19, 2018, 01:28:56 PM »
Guess I'll stop seeing ads for that dorky turtle neck wearing "Crypto Genius" on these forums.

Way up there on my list of people who I'd really like to punch.  Up there with him is that guy with the glasses in LA showing off his [rented] Beverly Hills house and [rented] Lambo. 

That second guy was a little late to the crypto circus, as illustrated by a video that appeared in late 2017 where you could tell he was trying to posit himself as the "crypto genius" while not quite knowing what he was talking about.

To whom are you referring? The only guy I know matching that description is in hiding and being sued for shilling Bitconnect.

thenextguy

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appleshampooid

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1030 on: March 27, 2018, 07:04:22 AM »
I decided to get in to the game a couple of weeks ago. Less about speculation and trying to get rich and more about my belief that cryptocurrency will play some role in the future of commerce (my libertarian streak showing through). I wanted to wait a bit from the $20k high and see if prices would drop much more.

I didn't invest a life-changing amount (only a crazy person would IMO); in fact the amount is so small that even a 100x increase wouldn't change my life that much (although obviously it would make me happy). I signed up on Coinbase/GDAX and Gemini at the same time; Gemini is still "verifying" my identity and GDAX was done immediately, so GDAX it is (plus I wanted some LTC which Gemini doesn't support). Waited my 4 business days for the ACH to clear (ridiculous) and then set up some limit orders for BTC, ETH, LTC, and BCH.

Yesterday my limits fired for ETH and LTC, but not BTC or BCH. Later in the evening I decided to pull the trigger with a market order on those two. I was waiting for $7500/BTC and got tired of waiting when the price went above $8000 again.

With my $500 I went $200 into BTC, $200 into ETH, $50 into LTC and $50 into BCH.

Down about $18 bucks this morning, lol. I will be HODLing these until they go bust or appreciate significantly, and am hoping to actually use them to transact at some point. Not sure where I would do that, as nowhere that I usually spend money accepts crytpo, and I'm not about to go spending money willy nilly just to participate (this being the MMM forum and all).

Seradoc

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1031 on: March 27, 2018, 07:27:10 AM »
I haven't bought crypto, but have found it interesting to watch.

The trends I have watched makes this the least likely time so far that I would purchase.  Of course, humans are great at finding patterns where there are none, so this whole thing will probably reverse trend just to spite me.

Attached is an image from today with a trend line I noticed since the peak.  So far, Bitcoin seems to be tracking a pretty consistent downward trend since peaking out last winter.

I also tend to feel like you can really see people manipulating the market in real time.  The rapid rises and falls of exactly 3-5% have always come across to me as pumping and dumping manipulations of the market.

Travis

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1032 on: March 27, 2018, 09:56:26 AM »

I also tend to feel like you can really see people manipulating the market in real time.  The rapid rises and falls of exactly 3-5% have always come across to me as pumping and dumping manipulations of the market.

There are YouTube channels and a redit or two where pump and dump groups were exposed in the last couple months.

appleshampooid

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1033 on: March 29, 2018, 04:40:06 AM »
I haven't bought crypto, but have found it interesting to watch.

The trends I have watched makes this the least likely time so far that I would purchase.  Of course, humans are great at finding patterns where there are none, so this whole thing will probably reverse trend just to spite me.

Attached is an image from today with a trend line I noticed since the peak.  So far, Bitcoin seems to be tracking a pretty consistent downward trend since peaking out last winter.

I also tend to feel like you can really see people manipulating the market in real time.  The rapid rises and falls of exactly 3-5% have always come across to me as pumping and dumping manipulations of the market.
What's that they say about trying to catch a falling knife? If I had just sat on my $7500 limit order it would have fired off this morning. So you are probably right. :cries:

It's okay, only $500. That's all I could convince the wife to go with. If prices really tank I might try to get back in with another $500 later on. Could be buying right to zero, but I personally believe they will go back up, a lot. Of course that is just my opinion, man.

Seradoc

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1034 on: March 29, 2018, 06:50:44 AM »
I haven't bought crypto, but have found it interesting to watch.

The trends I have watched makes this the least likely time so far that I would purchase.  Of course, humans are great at finding patterns where there are none, so this whole thing will probably reverse trend just to spite me.

Attached is an image from today with a trend line I noticed since the peak.  So far, Bitcoin seems to be tracking a pretty consistent downward trend since peaking out last winter.

I also tend to feel like you can really see people manipulating the market in real time.  The rapid rises and falls of exactly 3-5% have always come across to me as pumping and dumping manipulations of the market.
What's that they say about trying to catch a falling knife? If I had just sat on my $7500 limit order it would have fired off this morning. So you are probably right. :cries:

It's okay, only $500. That's all I could convince the wife to go with. If prices really tank I might try to get back in with another $500 later on. Could be buying right to zero, but I personally believe they will go back up, a lot. Of course that is just my opinion, man.

At least with only $500 invested you can always just call it entertainment money if things go south, like lottery tickets.  Just make sure you know why you are buying more if you keep chasing it later.

I got burned throwing good money after bad chasing an oil stock a few years ago.  In the end I was technically in the black, but the opportunity cost when compared to just putting it into an index fund wasn't exciting.  It was a good learning experience for me though.

thenextguy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1035 on: April 18, 2018, 03:03:44 PM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shitting all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of development going on.

Brave Browser, one of the more promising projects on the Ethereum network just had a big announcement today:

Ad-blocking Brave browser signs deal with Dow Jones Media Group

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1036 on: April 18, 2018, 04:50:40 PM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shilling all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of hilarious scams going on.

https://cryptovest.com/news/another-scam-ico-savedroid-founder-exits-with-50m-to-chill-on-a-beach/

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1037 on: April 19, 2018, 12:47:31 PM »
I bought in at the start of this year. It's hard to make money when you have a 40% wind at your head.

Etherium has traded under $380, but back up into the 500's now. Still ample chances to make money speculating.

theolympians

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1038 on: April 19, 2018, 06:24:10 PM »
i haven't stepped in her in a bit and was wondering what was up with this thread. I took a look at the last couple pages, it seems some of the same ideas are being re-washed. I still don't know anyone personally that has used it. After bitcoin took a dump, all the chatter at work has dwindled to nothing.


theolympians

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1039 on: April 19, 2018, 06:31:36 PM »
"I haven't stepped in here"

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1040 on: April 20, 2018, 11:06:13 PM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shilling all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of hilarious scams going on.

https://cryptovest.com/news/another-scam-ico-savedroid-founder-exits-with-50m-to-chill-on-a-beach/

ICOs are in desperate need of regulation.

That said, see followup link at top of article here:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-50-million-savedroid-ico-135731412.html

tl;dr apparently German sense of humor didn't come through correctly as this was an awful publicity stunt, not an exit scam, so far as we know at this point.

FWIW I do not own and have no intentions of owning SaveDroid.

Shunning the entirety of the crypto space by pointing out the most egregiously flawed / illicit projects is like pointing out the third party chinese counterfeiters plaguing amazon that are ripping off legitimate small businesses with impunity and saying therefore amazon must have no value.

To make high quality decisions get educated about the impact of the technology and its most promising projects, rather than looking for the most rotten apple in order to disregard the whole bunch.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1041 on: April 21, 2018, 02:17:24 AM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shilling all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of hilarious scams going on.

https://cryptovest.com/news/another-scam-ico-savedroid-founder-exits-with-50m-to-chill-on-a-beach/

ICOs are in desperate need of regulation.

That said, see followup link at top of article here:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-50-million-savedroid-ico-135731412.html

tl;dr apparently German sense of humor didn't come through correctly as this was an awful publicity stunt, not an exit scam, so far as we know at this point.

FWIW I do not own and have no intentions of owning SaveDroid.

Shunning the entirety of the crypto space by pointing out the most egregiously flawed / illicit projects is like pointing out the third party chinese counterfeiters plaguing amazon that are ripping off legitimate small businesses with impunity and saying therefore amazon must have no value.

To make high quality decisions get educated about the impact of the technology and its most promising projects, rather than looking for the most rotten apple in order to disregard the whole bunch.

The biggest exchange on the planet is accused of artificially pumping fake dollars into the market to shore up Bitcoin prices while the exchange's owners try to find a real-world bank willing to deal with them. The biggest exchange on the planet before that collapsed as a result of a colossal robbery. The biggest cryptocurrency has been publicly described as a bubble by the world's leading authority on bubbles, the founder of the most dominant software company on earth, the head of one of the planet's largest banks, and the most consistently successful investor in history. The entire market bounces violently up and down, completely unmoored from reality, while convincing analyses demonstrate that price moves in the past have been the result of deliberate market manipulation. This is nothing like dismissing Amazon on the basis of some dodgy merchants; it's far deeper and more pervasive, to the extent that we have absolutely no idea whether the prices currently being quoted bear any relevance to what they might be in five years.

I have still not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency price being supported with specific reference to a well-presented breakdown of the market being targeted, a SWOT analysis of the crypto's position relative to incumbents in the field, a sober estimate of the percentage of the market that can realistically be captured over the following three to five years, and an explanation of the dollar value of capturing that share of the market. This is absolute bread-and-butter stuff for any publicly traded company, and indeed for any company seeking investment from an outside source, but it's more or less utterly absent from the crypto sphere, because nobody investing in crypto is looking for it. The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with. I still have not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency with a stable price correlated closely with its actual prospects for success.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1042 on: April 22, 2018, 06:54:15 PM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2018, 07:18:35 PM by sol »

Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1043 on: April 22, 2018, 07:13:59 PM »
Sol!  Today is April 21, not April 1!

:)

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1044 on: April 22, 2018, 11:57:54 PM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shilling all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of hilarious scams going on.

https://cryptovest.com/news/another-scam-ico-savedroid-founder-exits-with-50m-to-chill-on-a-beach/

ICOs are in desperate need of regulation.

That said, see followup link at top of article here:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-50-million-savedroid-ico-135731412.html

tl;dr apparently German sense of humor didn't come through correctly as this was an awful publicity stunt, not an exit scam, so far as we know at this point.

FWIW I do not own and have no intentions of owning SaveDroid.

Shunning the entirety of the crypto space by pointing out the most egregiously flawed / illicit projects is like pointing out the third party chinese counterfeiters plaguing amazon that are ripping off legitimate small businesses with impunity and saying therefore amazon must have no value.

To make high quality decisions get educated about the impact of the technology and its most promising projects, rather than looking for the most rotten apple in order to disregard the whole bunch.

The biggest exchange on the planet is accused of artificially pumping fake dollars into the market to shore up Bitcoin prices while the exchange's owners try to find a real-world bank willing to deal with them. The biggest exchange on the planet before that collapsed as a result of a colossal robbery. The biggest cryptocurrency has been publicly described as a bubble by the world's leading authority on bubbles, the founder of the most dominant software company on earth, the head of one of the planet's largest banks, and the most consistently successful investor in history. The entire market bounces violently up and down, completely unmoored from reality, while convincing analyses demonstrate that price moves in the past have been the result of deliberate market manipulation. This is nothing like dismissing Amazon on the basis of some dodgy merchants; it's far deeper and more pervasive, to the extent that we have absolutely no idea whether the prices currently being quoted bear any relevance to what they might be in five years.

I have still not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency price being supported with specific reference to a well-presented breakdown of the market being targeted, a SWOT analysis of the crypto's position relative to incumbents in the field, a sober estimate of the percentage of the market that can realistically be captured over the following three to five years, and an explanation of the dollar value of capturing that share of the market. This is absolute bread-and-butter stuff for any publicly traded company, and indeed for any company seeking investment from an outside source, but it's more or less utterly absent from the crypto sphere, because nobody investing in crypto is looking for it. The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with. I still have not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency with a stable price correlated closely with its actual prospects for success.

Your points are distinct from BattlaPs one-and-done exit scam link. 
FWIW the chinese counterfeiters on amazon is a much bigger problem than "some dodgy merchants." Legitimate small business are being crowded out of their own sales space with no recourse whatsoever, while amazon's own products (The amazonbasics line specifically) play by a different set of rules and do not permit 3rd party foreign merchants to offer their products for sale or resale.

The altcoin space is the wild west, not in a good way.  It has market manipulation issues and there are very real scams out there.  There are some promising projects too but they are so far away from becoming established / successful.  Low signal:noise right now but there are interesting things being worked on.
 
Bitcoin has indeed been decried as a bubble, and that bubble has burst four times.  It's also been declared dead, regularly, since its inception.  Yet the number of users continues to increase.  Venezuelans are using it to order goods online as the Bolivar has failed them.  They don't care if bill gates thinks its a bubble, they just want to be able to buy stuff on amazon, which you can do - buy gift cards with btc and then use them at amazon.

The market being targeted by btc is "people who have an internet connection and have use for frictionless, secure transactions with low fees requiring no central authority."  How big that market winds up being is yet to be determined.   Yes exchanges have been hacked and yes it's an abstract concept that doesn't fit into classic corporate evaluations, because it's not a corporation.  And it actually works, if you take the time to learn about it / use it.  To date it is the most elegant solution to the problem of trust that anyone has come up with.

The reason for long term potential is the ability to fix problems that are baked in to our current way of doing business - ID theft, the high cost of requiring banks to facilitate economic transactions, the 10 to 4 mon-fri hourly restrictions, etc.  The earliest and most obvious use cases are the ones where systems have failed completely(eg venezuela), but it's the prospect of reducing / eliminating systemic problems in stable countries, and the increased userbase that would create,  that gives it the asymmetrical risk/reward and potential upside.

The amazon analogy is to simply show that finding one element that is categorically broken/illegal is to miss the entire point of educating oneself on the big picture in order to make high quality decisions. 

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1045 on: April 23, 2018, 02:51:19 AM »
Why is is that every time cryptocurrency advocates reach for a real-world use case, they end up talking about Venezuela?

Oh, I remember: it's because it took the near-total collapse of civil society and the rule of law, combined with an economic meltdown that's virtually impossible for any country in the world without oil, to make bitcoin seem like an attractive option as a currency. And even then, trading volumes within Venezuela are running at about USD 5m a week, or about 0.1% of economic activity in Venezuela.

But sure, keep telling yourself that cryptocurrency skeptics aren't educating themselves sufficiently on the big picture to make high quality decisions.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 12:15:45 AM by runbikerun »

SparkyPeanut

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1046 on: April 23, 2018, 07:57:12 PM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.

Rubbish

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1047 on: April 24, 2018, 12:45:31 AM »
Why is is that every time cryptocurrency advocates reach for a real-world use case, they end up talking about Venezuela?

Oh, I remember: it's because it took the near-total collapse of civil society and the rule of law, combined with an economic meltdown that's virtually impossible for any country in the world without oil, to make bitcoin seem like an attractive option as a currency. And even then, trading volumes within Venezuela are running at about USD 5m a week, or about 0.1% of economic activity in Venezuela.

So you're saying that the failure of a state backed currency created a situation where the population is finding btc useful for both store of value against hyperinflation, and ability to make purchases that would be otherwise impossible.  I don't think we are in disagreement.

Quote
But sure, keep telling yourself that cryptocurrency skeptical aren't educating themselves sufficiently on the big picture to make high quality decisions.

I'm skeptical, and I hope others are too. 

Your word choice indicates that you have mentally written off the entire crypto space and have a healthy amount of condescension for those who find potential in it.  That's okay.


I edited this like 30 times.  I'm putting way too much effort into this.  Here's my waste of an hour trying to explain my POV:


crypto raises difficult and sometimes painful ideas about the nature of money in general and how to handle potential future economic disasters.   This can interfere with people's ability to evaluate data effectively.

Maybe it's just a side effect of a career evaluating risk and assigning effective probabilities, but the idea of 0% and 100% are only theoretical concepts to me when dealing with such complex entities as economies and currencies.  Statements such as "the stock market always goes up" or "crypto is guaranteed to fail" have no semantic content as they are mathematically indefensible.

Low probability events such as a global impact of transformative fintech like btc, or a major economic depression / debt bubble pop of a major country can have tremendous consequences.  It behooves us to try and accurately assess those small differences and use the data we have available to plan for those low probability events in some fashion.

Preparedness does not guarantee solvency.  But head-in-the-sand approaches maximize failure rates when faced with large scale outlier events.

BTC is asymmetrical risk coupled with a potential hedge/recourse against negative outlier events. 

Arguments such as Bill Gates says it's bad! and Exchanges got hacked! utterly miss the big picture.  There's a long line of talking heads decrying it, and others exhorting it. They're all speculating about future scenarios through the filter of their own biases.

Exchanges have been hacked - this indicates regulation is needed, and is the same problem JP Morgan faced when it got hacked.  It's an argument that blockchain has a valid use case, that centralized financial entities are disproportionately vulnerable.

I'm going to keep socking my retirement money into VTSAX.  I read JCollin's stuff, it's great.  I also read many anti-stock market analyses as well.  I have no illusions about 100% success rates, but it's a good bet and tax incentives are robust, it's the best way to play the game.  I am also doing my best to be prepared in the event that the rules of the game change, that another game(btc) turns out to be more profitable, or the game breaks altogether.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1048 on: April 24, 2018, 12:52:09 AM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.

It's difficult to determine whether the moral high-horsing, rampant condescension, egoic characterization of the "others" as disproportionately criminals, or splash of sexism is the most offensive.  Hmm.  Definitely the sexism.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1049 on: April 24, 2018, 03:34:52 AM »
"Statements such as 'crypto is guaranteed to fail' have no semantic content as they are mathematically indefensible."

There is no way you are serious here. This is math-based absolutism applied to a field that doesn't deal in absolutes. Replace the word "crypto" in your statement with the phrase "PayUsToMailHumanShitToYou.com", and read it back to yourself. Nobody on the forum uses phrases like you've described as descriptors of mathematical certainty, and it's bullshit sophistry to act as though they do and then pretend you're smarter than everyone else for spotting a mathematical error in a non-mathematical sentence.

If you're hedging against a crypto future by buying a small amount of crypto, how do you evaluate which crypto is the most likely winner? It's like stock picking, except none of the companies will reveal anything about their finances. How do you evaluate the likely future value of the crypto once you've picked what you think is the winner? Successfully choosing Ethereum as the currency of the future, but buying it at 300 dollars only to find out in the future that it's only worth fifty, is worse than doing absolutely nothing.

If you think crypto taking over is a possibility worth hedging against, the smart option isn't to pick a couple of random coins and hope you're the world's greatest stock picker. The smart option in that case is to load your investment portfolio with companies heavy on stock and light on cash. Companies with significant debt denominated in dollars and significant current assets will gain in such a scenario, with no risk of losing out by picking the wrong crypto - so someone who was serious about covering the possibility would be increasing their holdings with that kind of company, rather than bidding up a cryptocurrency that requires a catastrophic collapse of civil society to see its share of transactions rise to one-tenth of one percent of economic activity.