Author Topic: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?  (Read 4968 times)

LiseE

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Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« on: January 29, 2021, 10:44:03 AM »
What are you buying today?  No sense in timing the market but I like to shop on red days and today looks like a good day to shop .. If you buy on the dips, what are you buying today?

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nereo

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2021, 10:59:55 AM »
What are you buying today?  No sense in timing the market but I like to shop on red days and today looks like a good day to shop .. If you buy on the dips, what are you buying today?


"no sense in timing the market but [you like to time the market]"...?

All my buys are on autopilot and in accordance with my IPS. That said, I wound up buying a few more shares of index funds... because it's Friday, and that's when it happens for me.


vand

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2021, 12:15:39 PM »
Bought some LGEN.L.. About an hour before it went down another couple of percent.

I don't think we've seen the cycle top yet but we are close now. All this daytrading WSB nonsense is very characteristic of major tops.

seattlecyclone

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2021, 12:35:07 PM »
Buying some index funds in my wife's IRA because it's the last business day of the month and that's when I make month-end transactions to hit our MAGI target. Looks like our small-cap allocation is a bit underweight right now so I'll go with that.

Christof

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2021, 12:41:01 PM »
Checking the calendar.... Nope, itĎs not Wednesday. IĎm not buying anything today.

achvfi

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2021, 12:59:40 PM »
Split between VUG and VNQ. Rest is automated.

utaca

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2021, 01:10:17 PM »
Wait, not a single one of you is going to #yolo GME stock to the moon? /s

jinga nation

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2021, 01:21:00 PM »
Wait, not a single one of you is going to #yolo GME stock to the moon? /s
it's my little green army designed for the long war full of many battles in the valleys and on the peaks, not a mercenary suicide squad. :p
i ain't got FOMO, but I got me a chair, drinks, and snacks to enjoy le shitshow.
i don't think today qualifies as a dip, less than 3% is just another day.

GuitarStv

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2021, 01:28:23 PM »
Wait, not a single one of you is going to #yolo GME stock to the moon? /s

I'll happily watch the explosion, but don't feel a need to add powder.

Steeze

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2021, 01:45:17 PM »
Wait, not a single one of you is going to #yolo GME stock to the moon? /s

Today I sold 1% of my portfolio, bought AMC because rocketships to the moon, made 10% in 10 minutes and felt like a real WSB Autist. Set a stop loss at 0.10 above my buy price, made coffee, came back, and I had all my cash sitting in my account. My 10% in 10 minutes turned into 35$ in 20 minutes. POOF. Made and lost 400$ in the time it takes to boil water.

Good reminder why I don't do that for a living, what a ride! Will be re-buying per my AA when the cash settles. Glad I got that out of my system, been a few years.

Also, my automated investing buys every day, so, today I bought all the normal mutual funds.

hodedofome

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2021, 01:56:58 PM »
I sold what AAPL I had left and bought more CRWD, ZS, DOCU, BILL, ASAN, and HUBS.

utaca

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2021, 02:03:19 PM »
Wait, not a single one of you is going to #yolo GME stock to the moon? /s

Today I sold 1% of my portfolio, bought AMC because rocketships to the moon, made 10% in 10 minutes and felt like a real WSB Autist. Set a stop loss at 0.10 above my buy price, made coffee, came back, and I had all my cash sitting in my account. My 10% in 10 minutes turned into 35$ in 20 minutes. POOF. Made and lost 400$ in the time it takes to boil water.

Good reminder why I don't do that for a living, what a ride! Will be re-buying per my AA when the cash settles. Glad I got that out of my system, been a few years.

Also, my automated investing buys every day, so, today I bought all the normal mutual funds.

Ha, yeah, I also don't think I have the stomach for making bold r/wallstreetbets. But that sub sure is fun to watch and I love to see those crazy autists putting the screws to the man right now!

secondcor521

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2021, 02:54:09 PM »
I personally think that stock picking and market-timing are more effort for less results.  Also, in the past when I've done some mild market timing I usually buy too early on the way down. :D  Finally, I am approaching a need to sell to raise cash for living expenses soon, so buying anything wouldn't make any sense.

So, nothing.

SparkyPeanut

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2021, 04:42:18 PM »
KO end of day at $48.15

tsukuba

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2021, 02:18:21 AM »
Not really dip buying --levels are still high-- but for macro and geographic rebalancing considerations, modest amounts of asian/emerging: EMQQ, FSEAX, MEGMX, MAPIX for the long term.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 02:33:48 AM by tsukuba »

tsukuba

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2021, 02:28:46 AM »
KO end of day at $48.15

I like how that is developing technically.  Do you watch that stock normally? find it randomly, or how did you screen/search for it?
« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 02:33:00 AM by tsukuba »

SparkyPeanut

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2021, 05:12:45 AM »
No I don't watch that stock normally. It is a value stock in my array of (mostly) high growth tech stocks. I noticed that it's gone nowhere for a year and is down 11% YTD.

I would like to get into SQ & was tempted as of course everthing went down nicely yesterday but I don't know, I got my other tech stocks at much better valuations. I guess I will take the risk that I'll miss that boat but if we have a correction I'll get some.

If KO drifts lower I'll average down some but I don't want too much KO.

chicklets123

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Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2021, 05:57:47 AM »
I put a bunch of $ into ETFs this month and I realized I bought some at the highest point. I donít want to pull more from savings to buy more at this time now they there is a dip.

If there is a dip in the market, how do I have extra funds reinvest?

Do you recommend selling 20% of the portfolio when it comes back up just to have some extra funds to buy again if it dips?

Do you set it to sell when it reaches at a certain point and rebuy back when itís low?

I know this is only variances if say $5-$10.


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« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 06:49:08 AM by chicklets123 »

ender

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2021, 06:07:38 AM »
About $2k split 70% SP500 index and 30% total international index.

401k contributions hit, so I guess that's my purchase on the dip (though I think they actually posted Thursday at close).

Steeze

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2021, 07:22:50 AM »
I put a bunch of $ into ETFs this month and I realized I bought some at the highest point. I donít want to pull more from savings to buy more at this time now they there is a dip.

If there is a dip in the market, how do I have extra funds reinvest?

Do you recommend selling 20% of the portfolio when it comes back up just to have some extra funds to buy again if it dips?

Do you set it to sell when it reaches at a certain point and rebuy back when itís low?

I know this is only variances if say $5-$10.


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Donít need to do anything tactical as you suggest. Simply buy at regular intervals over a decade or two. The selling and rebuying is exactly the way the average investor tends to underperform.

Instead focus on spending less, earning more, investing more. Optimizing those categories are much more effective than tactics.

Generally the way people have funds available to invest on large dips is through  rebalancing. I keep 5% cash and 5% bonds in my portfolio. If stocks take a 20% dip then my cash and bonds will not be 5% any more. So I sell some bonds and use cash to buy stocks until I am at 5% again. When stocks are back at up, bonds/cash is less than 5%, so sell stocks and top them up.

What not to do is buy apple, sell apple, buy apple, sell apple. About 0.01% of people are successful at that consistently.

chicklets123

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Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2021, 07:39:35 AM »
I put a bunch of $ into ETFs this month and I realized I bought some at the highest point. I donít want to pull more from savings to buy more at this time now they there is a dip.

If there is a dip in the market, how do I have extra funds reinvest?

Do you recommend selling 20% of the portfolio when it comes back up just to have some extra funds to buy again if it dips?

Do you set it to sell when it reaches at a certain point and rebuy back when itís low?

I know this is only variances if say $5-$10.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Donít need to do anything tactical as you suggest. Simply buy at regular intervals over a decade or two. The selling and rebuying is exactly the way the average investor tends to underperform.

Instead focus on spending less, earning more, investing more. Optimizing those categories are much more effective than tactics.

Generally the way people have funds available to invest on large dips is through  rebalancing. I keep 5% cash and 5% bonds in my portfolio. If stocks take a 20% dip then my cash and bonds will not be 5% any more. So I sell some bonds and use cash to buy stocks until I am at 5% again. When stocks are back at up, bonds/cash is less than 5%, so sell stocks and top them up.

What not to do is buy apple, sell apple, buy apple, sell apple. About 0.01% of people are successful at that consistently.
Thank you this is helpful.
If day Apple dropped 20% would that be the stocks you can buy? Then resell again when itís high? What is the difference in the two? Is it the 20% drop vs say a 2% drop?

Or do you mean you never sell the Apple and only use cash that you have saved to buy at the 20% dip?


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« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 07:41:38 AM by chicklets123 »

Steeze

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2021, 08:11:04 AM »
I put a bunch of $ into ETFs this month and I realized I bought some at the highest point. I donít want to pull more from savings to buy more at this time now they there is a dip.

If there is a dip in the market, how do I have extra funds reinvest?

Do you recommend selling 20% of the portfolio when it comes back up just to have some extra funds to buy again if it dips?

Do you set it to sell when it reaches at a certain point and rebuy back when itís low?

I know this is only variances if say $5-$10.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Donít need to do anything tactical as you suggest. Simply buy at regular intervals over a decade or two. The selling and rebuying is exactly the way the average investor tends to underperform.

Instead focus on spending less, earning more, investing more. Optimizing those categories are much more effective than tactics.

Generally the way people have funds available to invest on large dips is through  rebalancing. I keep 5% cash and 5% bonds in my portfolio. If stocks take a 20% dip then my cash and bonds will not be 5% any more. So I sell some bonds and use cash to buy stocks until I am at 5% again. When stocks are back at up, bonds/cash is less than 5%, so sell stocks and top them up.

What not to do is buy apple, sell apple, buy apple, sell apple. About 0.01% of people are successful at that consistently.
Thank you this is helpful.
If day Apple dropped 20% would that be the stocks you can buy? Then resell again when itís high? What is the difference in the two? Is it the 20% drop vs say a 2% drop?

Or do you mean you never sell the Apple and only use cash that you have saved to buy at the 20% dip?


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Basically have a fixed percentage of stocks/bonds/cash and rebalance mechanically. Always buying in proportion to your desired asset allocation, and rebalancing when big market moves throw your positions significantly out of whack.

If you hold apple (or anything really) as part of your portfolio, then consider holding a fixed %. If you want 10% of your portfolio to be apple but it grows very fast and becomes 12%, then Sell 2% worth and buy the things whose % has dropped below target. If apple drops to 8%, then sell some of the things that are above target to get apple back to your desired 10%.

Generally though your going to be able to keep things in balance through purchasing new shares regularly rather than having to rebalance, at least in the beginning. Itís not until your portfolio is much larger than your annual savings that rebalancing even becomes necessary. Right now my portfolio is about 4x my annual savings and I am just getting to the point where I cannot control my AA through purchasing alone.


Wordstew

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2021, 08:19:35 AM »
Put Options and some other hedges to keep my nest egg in the nest

chicklets123

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2021, 08:42:12 AM »
I put a bunch of $ into ETFs this month and I realized I bought some at the highest point. I donít want to pull more from savings to buy more at this time now they there is a dip.

If there is a dip in the market, how do I have extra funds reinvest?

Do you recommend selling 20% of the portfolio when it comes back up just to have some extra funds to buy again if it dips?

Do you set it to sell when it reaches at a certain point and rebuy back when itís low?

I know this is only variances if say $5-$10.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Donít need to do anything tactical as you suggest. Simply buy at regular intervals over a decade or two. The selling and rebuying is exactly the way the average investor tends to underperform.

Instead focus on spending less, earning more, investing more. Optimizing those categories are much more effective than tactics.

Generally the way people have funds available to invest on large dips is through  rebalancing. I keep 5% cash and 5% bonds in my portfolio. If stocks take a 20% dip then my cash and bonds will not be 5% any more. So I sell some bonds and use cash to buy stocks until I am at 5% again. When stocks are back at up, bonds/cash is less than 5%, so sell stocks and top them up.

What not to do is buy apple, sell apple, buy apple, sell apple. About 0.01% of people are successful at that consistently.
Thank you this is helpful.
If day Apple dropped 20% would that be the stocks you can buy? Then resell again when itís high? What is the difference in the two? Is it the 20% drop vs say a 2% drop?

Or do you mean you never sell the Apple and only use cash that you have saved to buy at the 20% dip?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Basically have a fixed percentage of stocks/bonds/cash and rebalance mechanically. Always buying in proportion to your desired asset allocation, and rebalancing when big market moves throw your positions significantly out of whack.

If you hold apple (or anything really) as part of your portfolio, then consider holding a fixed %. If you want 10% of your portfolio to be apple but it grows very fast and becomes 12%, then Sell 2% worth and buy the things whose % has dropped below target. If apple drops to 8%, then sell some of the things that are above target to get apple back to your desired 10%.

Generally though your going to be able to keep things in balance through purchasing new shares regularly rather than having to rebalance, at least in the beginning. Itís not until your portfolio is much larger than your annual savings that rebalancing even becomes necessary. Right now my portfolio is about 4x my annual savings and I am just getting to the point where I cannot control my AA through purchasing alone.
Thank you very much for explaining. I will add some bonds to my portfolio.


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Steeze

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2021, 08:56:14 AM »
@chicklets123 before doing anything you should read more about asset allocation, portfolio rebalancing, mode portfolios, and once you have enough information you should write an investment policy statement.

Check out these resources:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing
https://portfoliocharts.com/
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement


chicklets123

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2021, 09:24:36 AM »
@chicklets123 before doing anything you should read more about asset allocation, portfolio rebalancing, mode portfolios, and once you have enough information you should write an investment policy statement.

Check out these resources:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing
https://portfoliocharts.com/
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement
Thank you very much for the recommendations! I will check them out.


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JetBlast

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2021, 09:47:48 AM »
Nothing. A 2% drop brought none of the stocks Iím interested down to a price Iím willing to pay. Index fund buying will be next week per normal schedule.

MudPuppy

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2021, 10:03:09 AM »
I added next weekís designated contribution along with this weekís just for shits and giggles. If the stocks are genuinely on sale, great, if not then those dollars have an extra few days in the market.

GoCubsGo

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2021, 10:17:15 AM »
Bought NVAX on the way up for fun.  Sold at 22% profit.  Bought more MSFT for long term (with that NVAX profit).  Will buy more MSFT if it keeps falling.  They announced blow out results this week.  It's just getting caught up in the market wash. 

mistymoney

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #29 on: January 30, 2021, 11:03:57 AM »
Wait, not a single one of you is going to #yolo GME stock to the moon? /s



Also, my automated investing buys every day, so, today I bought all the normal mutual funds.

Could you explain this a bit more? Do you have x to invest per pay period, and then DCA it in daily? I'm a bit confused.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 11:10:24 AM by mistymoney »

Steeze

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #30 on: January 30, 2021, 02:46:32 PM »
Wait, not a single one of you is going to #yolo GME stock to the moon? /s



Also, my automated investing buys every day, so, today I bought all the normal mutual funds.

Could you explain this a bit more? Do you have x to invest per pay period, and then DCA it in daily? I'm a bit confused.

yes - Outside of 401k, I have (2) Roth IRAs and a taxable brokerage account which get cash each pay period.
So the day after I get paid I auto-transfer the largest amount my budget can afford into those accounts into the money market fund. Then I set up an auto-purchase to buy mutual funds weekly, and created one for each day of the week (because in Vanguard there is no option for daily auto purchases, weekly is the most frequent). The daily purchases get transferred from the money market fund. The reason I made this a two-step process instead of just transferring from my checking directly was to keep my checking account from having a million "Vanguard Purchase" lines in the statement.

DW got a raise the other day, so I had to go in and increase the auto transfer and the auto-purchase in the taxable account. Otherwise its all pretty hands off. I do hold (3) ETFs that cannot be auto-purchased, and I have to go in manually to buy, so those get bought only on the day after I get paid. Our 401ks of course only get purchased the day we get paid.

Works pretty good once it is all set up right - I have a spread sheet that looks at each account, the limits for contributions in each, my current AA, and my target AA and spits out how much of each fund I need to purchase in each account to keep them in balance throughout the year (assuming everything increases equally). Then at the end of the year I re-balance and reset my auto-transfer and auto-purchases for the next year's numbers.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2021, 02:49:05 PM by Steeze »

waltworks

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #31 on: January 30, 2021, 10:22:07 PM »
LOL, 2% "buy the dip"...

Between that and the idiotic "hyper growth stocks" thread, it's officially a bubble.

-W

Paul der Krake

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #32 on: January 31, 2021, 02:30:59 AM »
LOL, 2% "buy the dip"...

Between that and the idiotic "hyper growth stocks" thread, it's officially a bubble.

-W
Brah, we haven't seen prices this low since, like, January 5.

Travis

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #33 on: January 31, 2021, 06:01:24 AM »
LOL, 2% "buy the dip"...

Between that and the idiotic "hyper growth stocks" thread, it's officially a bubble.

-W
Brah, we haven't seen prices this low since, like, January 5.

I'm down like $300 from New Years. It's horrific.

achvfi

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #34 on: January 31, 2021, 05:31:14 PM »
LOL, 2% "buy the dip"...

Between that and the idiotic "hyper growth stocks" thread, it's officially a bubble.

-W
Its actually 3.6% discount from all time high a week ago. I will take a discount, it doesn't have to be a large one :)

Villanelle

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #35 on: January 31, 2021, 06:04:29 PM »
Nothing.  Since there's no sense in timing the market, I don't time the market.  Weird. 

chicklets123

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #36 on: February 24, 2021, 05:49:41 PM »
Nothing. A 2% drop brought none of the stocks Iím interested down to a price Iím willing to pay. Index fund buying will be next week per normal schedule.
Do you buy regular index at whatever the market price is regularly? Whatís a regular schedule that is good?


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JetBlast

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #37 on: February 25, 2021, 08:02:33 AM »
Nothing. A 2% drop brought none of the stocks Iím interested down to a price Iím willing to pay. Index fund buying will be next week per normal schedule.
Do you buy regular index at whatever the market price is regularly? Whatís a regular schedule that is good?


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My schedule for buying is quite simple.  It's when I get paid, which is bimonthly where I work. 

Scandium

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #38 on: February 25, 2021, 12:05:25 PM »
Nothing. A 2% drop brought none of the stocks Iím interested down to a price Iím willing to pay. Index fund buying will be next week per normal schedule.
Do you buy regular index at whatever the market price is regularly? Whatís a regular schedule that is good?


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My schedule for buying is quite simple.  It's when I get paid, which is bimonthly where I work.

But do you mean fortnightly or hex-annually?!

JetBlast

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #39 on: February 25, 2021, 12:22:58 PM »
Nothing. A 2% drop brought none of the stocks Iím interested down to a price Iím willing to pay. Index fund buying will be next week per normal schedule.
Do you buy regular index at whatever the market price is regularly? Whatís a regular schedule that is good?


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My schedule for buying is quite simple.  It's when I get paid, which is bimonthly where I work.

But do you mean fortnightly or hex-annually?!

Touchť!

Semimonthly.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2021, 12:28:17 PM by JetBlast »

ice_beard

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #40 on: February 28, 2021, 01:19:04 PM »
While I don't consider this a huge buying opportunity, we are back down to essentially some time way back in December or even January, that doesn't mean I did not pick up a few extra shares last week. 

OXY warrants when they go below $11. 
Added to ARKK around $120.  I'm actually glad to see that etf is somewhat mortal.  Corrections are healthy. 
« Last Edit: February 28, 2021, 01:20:55 PM by ice_beard »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #41 on: March 01, 2021, 09:25:54 AM »
OXY warrants when they go below $11. 

@ice_beard - You mean you will buy warrants, or the company Occidental Petroleum will do something with warrants?   I only see their stock price below $11 right after Covid struck, and right before vaccines were announced.

My thought is OXY can win in two ways: a recovery from Covid brings a recovery in oil demand.  Plus oil prices are at historic lows, so they could mean revert.  Right now OXY is 8% of my net worth - mostly from call options I bought well out of the money that are now deep in the money.

ice_beard

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #42 on: March 01, 2021, 10:36:31 AM »
OXY has issued warrants that expire 08/2027 and allow you to buy 1 share of common stock at $22. 

I've basically got until 2027 for OXY shares to reach 33 (trading at 27.97 right now).  They are pretty volatile and when they dip below $11, I grab a few.  With WTI above $60, OXY is an insane cash cow.  I can honestly see the share price going to 50-60, maybe even higher within a year or two. 

https://www.oxy.com/investors/Services/Pages/June2020Warrants.aspx

On yahoo finance the ticker is oxy-wt. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #43 on: March 02, 2021, 08:36:59 AM »
OXY has issued warrants that expire 08/2027 and allow you to buy 1 share of common stock at $22. 

I've basically got until 2027 for OXY shares to reach 33 (trading at 27.97 right now).  They are pretty volatile and when they dip below $11, I grab a few.  With WTI above $60, OXY is an insane cash cow.  I can honestly see the share price going to 50-60, maybe even higher within a year or two. 

https://www.oxy.com/investors/Services/Pages/June2020Warrants.aspx

On yahoo finance the ticker is oxy-wt.
Wow, I would have piled into those last year (had I known) - I value the longer duration more than the higher price.  And $22 strike call options aren't cheap, despite at most going out to Jan 2023.

I think I've mentioned all of my oil related investments by this point: OXY, CPE, XOP, GUSH, and USO.  I bought out of the money, long duration calls on USO last month, expecting them to move into the money during a recovery.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #44 on: April 20, 2021, 10:00:29 AM »
OXY has issued warrants that expire 08/2027 and allow you to buy 1 share of common stock at $22. 

I've basically got until 2027 for OXY shares to reach 33 (trading at 27.97 right now).  They are pretty volatile and when they dip below $11, I grab a few.  With WTI above $60, OXY is an insane cash cow.  I can honestly see the share price going to 50-60, maybe even higher within a year or two. 

https://www.oxy.com/investors/Services/Pages/June2020Warrants.aspx

On yahoo finance the ticker is oxy-wt.
@ice_beard - I don't know what tomorrow brings, but today OXY-WS is trading at $9.80.  Thought this might be a chance to buy, so I bought some today.

I've wound up with a tilt to oil because those stocks grew so fast.  I view it as 3 ways to gain: oil recovers after Covid-19, oil rises from historical lows, or inflation fears push oil prices higher.

ice_beard

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #45 on: April 20, 2021, 11:52:21 AM »
I definitely picked up some of those cheap warrants today!  Today's warrants will get you a share for < 33$ until August 2027.  If you are patient. 
OXYs current market cap is a joke.  They are making cash hand over fist right now.  If oil holds at $60+ into 2022, this has strong potential and I don't think that's too big of a wish.  SA/OPEC+ are keeping a very close eye on production and want to keep oil in that 60-70 range and certainly no lower. 

I've definitely been taking a beating the past month or so because I did not sell anything at the March peak.  The commodity price has changed very little, yet the divergence between commodity and stock values has really widened again.  I'll just sit back and watch. 

soccerluvof4

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #46 on: April 20, 2021, 12:05:48 PM »
Only ones I am adding to today and small is CPNG and MKGI. Other than that I am waiting

BicycleB

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #47 on: April 20, 2021, 03:13:37 PM »
I definitely picked up some of those cheap warrants today!  Today's warrants will get you a share for < 33$ until August 2027.  If you are patient. 
OXYs current market cap is a joke.  They are making cash hand over fist right now.  If oil holds at $60+ into 2022, this has strong potential and I don't think that's too big of a wish.  SA/OPEC+ are keeping a very close eye on production and want to keep oil in that 60-70 range and certainly no lower. 

I've definitely been taking a beating the past month or so because I did not sell anything at the March peak.  The commodity price has changed very little, yet the divergence between commodity and stock values has really widened again.  I'll just sit back and watch.

@ice_beard, what tells you that OXY is making cash hand over fist? (I don't doubt you, just want to learn.)

At https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OXY "EPS/TTM" (earnings per share, twelve trailing months?) is shown as -17.06. Is that supposed to mean that the company lost $17.06 per share in the last twelve months?

« Last Edit: April 20, 2021, 03:43:50 PM by BicycleB »

ice_beard

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #48 on: April 20, 2021, 07:05:54 PM »
Today is the one year anniversary of WTI going negative, so yes, Occidental and everyone else in OG has had an absolutely terrible trailing twelve months, hence the awful eps and the very low share price. 

I'm not going to go into all the details (the oil industry is pretty COMPLEX) but OXY can produce a barrel of oil for considerably less (some estimate ~$25/barrel for production costs(!)) than what they are selling it for right now (and have been since November).  They produce millions of barrels of oil every week (~1.1m barrels a day), so each week the price of oil stays > $60, they are a free cash flow producing machine.   Example: Let's say a barrel of oil costs them $40 (conservative estimate) to produce and they are selling it for $60 (current WTI is $62.61) that's $20/barrel profit, so $20*$1.1m = $22m/day.  They are making 22 million dollars a DAY in free cash flow from their crude oil sales alone.  Which translates into $1.98b for a quarter.  This doesn't take into account their natural gas production, their pretrochemical companies or their new work in carbon capture and all their other ancillary business lines.
They have long-term debt issues, yes, but manageable with prices above $~45.  I'm not making a bet so much on OXY being some great company, but rather them being an efficient producer and that Saudi Arabia/OPEC+ is going to do what it has to to keep oil prices high for at least 2021 and 2022, and if they can, beyond that as well.  And this is what will drive up the price of OXYs shares.

Here is a good video that looks at several of the biggest Permian Field players, their market caps, production and share prices.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xu14F8xLa1k   You can skip to 8:25 to get to OXY but it's interesting to see how they compare to the other firms in terms of production (2nd largest in the Permian basin).  This guys channel is pretty good to follow to keep up with the company. 
I fully expect them to blow analysts expectations out of the water for Q1, but whether or not Wall St. will care is another matter. 
This is a medium term length play for me.  I'm not looking for a quick flip, hence the interest in warrants that don't expire until 2027. 
« Last Edit: April 20, 2021, 07:24:54 PM by ice_beard »

Rdy2Fire

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Re: Nice dip today .. what are you buying?
« Reply #49 on: April 21, 2021, 06:05:40 AM »
I bought some lunch and left my portfolio alone :)