Radram, since you mentioned Kodak I will point you to this [url = http://www.joshuakennon.com/eastman-kodak-example/] case study [/url] by Joshua Kennon. He calculated in the 25 years starting in 1986 that Kodak had a 5.5% return, even when accounting for losing your initial investment. His calculation included not reinvesting the dividends and not selling before the shares were delisted. I'm sure you would have a higher return if you were able to sell before they were delisted.
Thank you for that research. Fasinating study. He is a great writer. Did you see his article on Dolly Parton? A must read. I have his article on MLK's Birmingham jail letter in my queue.
As far as Kodak, I would have reinvested dividends, so that would need to be re-figured. As far as the signs to get out, I remember getting a digital camera from Kodak around 2003-2005 or so, and I might very well have figured they would transform into a digital company. Who knows If I would have seen the writing on the wall.
By the same token, would I have left IBM when everyone wrote them off, missing the turn-around and all the gains that took me to 12% overall?
I'm not that good. I very well might have missed both :)