Author Topic: New York Crude in Backwardation  (Read 1543 times)

Financial.Velociraptor

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New York Crude in Backwardation
« on: July 01, 2015, 05:26:06 PM »
CLN15.NYM 59.20
CLQ15.NYM 56.94

Peculiar...  The immediate news item that comes to mind is the Greek Default.  But Greece makes up about .4% of global GDP and can't be a high oil demand jurisdiction.  I think there may have been some panic selling among long speculators...

tarheeldan

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Re: New York Crude in Backwardation
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2015, 05:30:22 AM »
I'm trying to figure out what you're looking at here. I looked up the ticker and Yahoo charts it but it doesn't provide a description. Is this spot physical or something?

I make an OTC derivatives market based off of NYMEX HO, so I keep an eye on crudes of course and I'm always looking at: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: New York Crude in Backwardation
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2015, 07:36:01 AM »
Those are the tickers for Jul and Aug New York Crude futures.  The normal scenario for futures is longer dated ones are more expensive (contango).  Only when there is sentiment the price will fall rapidly are later dated futures cheaper (backwardation).


ToeInTheWater

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Re: New York Crude in Backwardation
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2015, 07:42:36 AM »
July crude futures expired 10 days or so ago.  .

if you're looking on July1 and comparing to Aug futures, you're seeing quotes from 2 different days

tarheeldan

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Re: New York Crude in Backwardation
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2015, 07:47:57 AM »
July crude futures expired 10 days or so ago.  .

if you're looking on July1 and comparing to Aug futures, you're seeing quotes from 2 different days

Exactly why I was confused. Plus, NYMEX WTI is delivered at Cushing, OK not New York Harbor so that threw me too. There's a carry in the market:
CLQ15 56.96
57.37
57.70
58.12
58.55
58.93
59.22
59.46
59.69
59.92
60.16
60.33
60.50
60.68
60.91
61.15
61.39
61.53
61.67
61.84
(These are 7/1 settlements)

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: New York Crude in Backwardation
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2015, 02:51:11 PM »
Yeah I figured it out about 10 minutes ago and came here to post/eat crow.  *Facepunch* please!

Front and second month are in contango as expected. 

Doh!