You're right, it does make it hard to comment on. Think of it this way though... if you have multiple accounts, a couple savings, Roth IRA, 401k, are you going to use the same investment strategy in every account? This would be my emergency fund allocation, as in a completely separate account from my other savings, my IRA and my 401k. This account has a separate risk appetite from the others. Maybe I should have opened with that information, or given more detail as to what I meant by "portfolio," and if so, I apologize.
Also, no, I don't have any unbiased scientific papers speaking on technical analysis. I learned from other traders and I actually have done moderately well... sometimes there are big wins and sometimes there are big losses. Averaged out I'm at about 25% return in one year from this "gambling." Sure, I could have just bought into an index fund or invested in solar energy and have MUCH higher returns in the same time frame, but I chose day trading because it was fun. But back to the actual chart... if you look at it you can see that the last two large downturns were from testing resistance (1556 level), retreating and losing support at the next lower level (1317 level). So yes, if you look closely you'll see that bearded man behind the clouds! haha
So, to rephrase the entire initial "Any thoughts?" question.... "Here is my emergency fund savings portfolio which is meant to do better than a savings account but not hold my entire investment strategy, so the principal could be used at any time in the event of an emergency. Any thoughts?"