Author Topic: New "the sky is about to fall" stock chart  (Read 13710 times)

matchewed

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Re: New "the sky is about to fall" stock chart
« Reply #50 on: July 07, 2014, 05:34:04 AM »
I read this thread and the one you linked to before posting and they make good points about how being near the market high isn't a reason not to buy, but I didn't see mention of p/e. Maybe I missed it.

You say "if you do see a big drop feel free to take advantage if you've got a way to but don't sit around in cash waiting for the drop." That sounds to me like you agree that sometimes you might want to tweak your buying pattern slightly, even if the overall strategy is close to periodic buying for DCA. No?

I say feel free to take advantage if you have a way. I view it this way. You have a cash flow of X. You have spending of Y and savings of Z. For some people they could recognize a market drop and reduce Y for an increase in Z. I'm not advocating putting Z into cash and wait for drops. That is a losing situation.

If you've got proof that PE timing works long term then please bring it.

Cheddar Stacker

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Re: New "the sky is about to fall" stock chart
« Reply #51 on: July 07, 2014, 06:44:03 AM »
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

I'll just (timidly) note that we don't need a system to work all the time. It just has to have positive expected value (more or less). It seems to me that DCA is kind of like that: there have been times where it could screw you, at least short term, but we like it because over the long run we expect it to do well.

I'm not arguing that PE-based timing is a net win. I'm just wondering if we should look at long term rather than a few specific dates to decide if it's worth it.

Don't be timid. Post freely and ask questions. Its the best way to learn. DCA and hold long term. Buy a value if you find one. Ignore the media. And welcome to the forum.