Occasional Morning Fast Trades

[blue_green_sparks]

I am post-FIRE and conservatively invested. I have time. The past year, on and off and just a few times a week... if it feels right I will throw a pile of cash into an index like QQQ or VTI and sell as things level off. There is usually a daily morning trend and it sure can change fast but the worse that can happen is getting "stuck" owning funds that I am already into anyways. Live to sell another day. I never do this with individual stocks. A human diode peak index clipper. I track versus just holding and I do better...just sometimes not by all that much. I am sure there are algorithms for this but I enjoy the challenge and adrenaline. Anybody relate to this naughty behavior?

[MustacheAndaHalf]

It's a bit difficult to pick apart what you're describing.  I think you are timing purchases of QQQ and VTI based on gut feeling?  And then measuring your results on how much QQQ or VTI went up before you sold?

My take is that cash in your investment account is idle.  So instead of just measuring the increase, you should compare against what happens if you stayed invested the entire time.  If you've had $5,000 lying around since January, which you sometimes invest and sell... how did VTI do over that time?  Would you have beaten VTI or QQQ if that money was invested the whole time?

That could help you learn how much the timing is gaining or costing you.  There might also be some value in having a tiny allocation of play money, if it keeps the rest of your portfolio invested.

[park10]

I am post-FIRE and conservatively invested. I have time. The past year, on and off and just a few times a week... if it feels right I will throw a pile of cash into an index like QQQ or VTI and sell as things level off. There is usually a daily morning trend and it sure can change fast but the worse that can happen is getting "stuck" owning funds that I am already into anyways. Live to sell another day. I never do this with individual stocks. A human diode peak index clipper. I track versus just holding and I do better...just sometimes not by all that much. I am sure there are algorithms for this but I enjoy the challenge and adrenaline. Anybody relate to this naughty behavior?

What are you even trying to do ? if (big IF) you are trying to day trade morning ranges, study about intraday VWAP (volume weighted average price), OR pick the first 15 min or 30 min candle low, OR pick a moving average and trade against those levels.

[Buffaloski Boris]

Looks to me like the poster is doing very short term intraday gambles based on a pricing trend he/she has observed. 

OK.  Gambling can be fun as long as one keeps some perspective and the bets are small.  I've noticed that equities prices for a couple of months tended to peak around lunchtime and then go down in the mid afternoon. Nothing I felt the urge to trade, although I did make a couple of purchases in mid afternoon with that in mind. 

I'm just not all that into gambling and if I were, I'd go to a casino and get the free drinks instead.   

[blue_green_sparks]

I just set up conditional orders based mostly on my take on the risk on/risk off mood, daily charts, recent volatility and the VIX. Usually looking for small 0.1 to 0.8 percent gains to trigger a sale. The idea is that a daily net of 0.2% is equivalent to 73% per year (did I do that right?) Last week I allowed myself to trade a few big names like TSLA, AAPL, etc. Stuff I am not afraid to hold. That is the rule. For example last Friday TSLA jumped 0.8% in about 3 minutes and that triggered a sale netting $384.00. Monday I just grabbed 0.1% from VTI for about $49.00 net on my 50K. The week before was a $742 net for about an hour of effort. Worse case is I get to hold and can't play for while. My portfolio is diverse and generates reliable income and gains so this is just a little 'icing'.
 

[ctuser1]

If you are into gambling, I'll give you a more hands off tip.

Instead of keenly watching the price ticker (which is delayed anyway unless you fork over tens of thousands for a BBG terminal + real time price), try to set high/low price. e.g. Let's take MSFT for an example. Open price (fictitious) was 205. You anticipate it will go down to 200 before bouncing off. Place a limit order for 200.

Next, when you want to sell, place a similar limit order for whatever your target price is. Let's assume you anticipate there will be a closing rally which will drive the price at least to 210. So place an order with that limit.

-------------------

Besides such day trading, you should ALWAYS use limit orders. There are many weird market situations where the computers may drive prices too far one way or the other and you will be left holding the bag with a market order.   

[hodedofome]

You must understand if you are daytrading, the market environment this year is not normal and will change on you.

I don't know of too many people who have a daytrading system that consistently makes money year in and year out. Systems have to be changed as the market changes. And that's the issue - most people don't know when to change the system.

[blue_green_sparks]

You must understand if you are daytrading, the market environment this year is not normal and will change on you.

I don't know of too many people who have a daytrading system that consistently makes money year in and year out. Systems have to be changed as the market changes. And that's the issue - most people don't know when to change the system.

I agree, volatility is pretty high now. So far with $50K at a time maximum buys I am about $3K net for the past few weeks. Most of the time it's about 10 seconds in and out. Right now I am on hold, stuck with Apple shares for a while. Maybe the split will help even though it has northing to do with valuation. For a while this weekend I was really rich because Fidelity quadrupled the number of shares but didn't cut the price yet ;) In any event my annual return on my 50K is 136.58%...
 
8/12/2020   $378.35
8/14/2020   $387.47
8/17/2020   $350.14
8/18/2020   $108.00
8/19/2020   $145.60
8/20/2020   $276.08
8/20/2020   $111.89
8/20/2020   $16.42
8/21/2020   $641.56
8/21/2020   -$162.58
8/26/2020   $234.52
8/27/2020   $75.44
8/28/2020   $90.91
8/28/2020   $339.83
_________________
total         $2,993.63

[park10]

You must understand if you are daytrading, the market environment this year is not normal and will change on you.

I don't know of too many people who have a daytrading system that consistently makes money year in and year out. Systems have to be changed as the market changes. And that's the issue - most people don't know when to change the system.

I agree, volatility is pretty high now. So far with $50K at a time maximum buys I am about $3K net for the past few weeks. Most of the time it's about 10 seconds in and out. Right now I am on hold, stuck with Apple shares for a while. Maybe the split will help even though it has northing to do with valuation.

Volatility is pretty high now ??? What. $VIX is 22.... $SPY IV Rank is 19 %.. not sure what you are talking about.

[blue_green_sparks]

You must understand if you are daytrading, the market environment this year is not normal and will change on you.

I don't know of too many people who have a daytrading system that consistently makes money year in and year out. Systems have to be changed as the market changes. And that's the issue - most people don't know when to change the system.

I agree, volatility is pretty high now. So far with $50K at a time maximum buys I am about $3K net for the past few weeks. Most of the time it's about 10 seconds in and out. Right now I am on hold, stuck with Apple shares for a while. Maybe the split will help even though it has northing to do with valuation.

Volatility is pretty high now ??? What. $VIX is 22.... $SPY IV Rank is 19 %.. not sure what you are talking about.

VIX was normally 10 or 12 before C19, but I am specifically talking about select big names like Apple, Tesla and many 'computing cloud' stocks. Even gold had a nice little run recently.