Author Topic: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.  (Read 9849 times)

merula

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #100 on: September 26, 2019, 03:51:06 PM »
I work in a B2B industry, and a lot of my company's customers are themselves B2B.

Picking stocks based on consumer popularity with any group is fundamentally ignoring huge swaths of the economy, and in particular is ignoring the parts of the economy with steadier earnings, with customers who are less price-sensitive and less likely to lurch to the next big thing.

Buffalo Chip

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #101 on: September 26, 2019, 07:45:38 PM »
I work in a B2B industry, and a lot of my company's customers are themselves B2B.

Picking stocks based on consumer popularity with any group is fundamentally ignoring huge swaths of the economy, and in particular is ignoring the parts of the economy with steadier earnings, with customers who are less price-sensitive and less likely to lurch to the next big thing.

Shhhhhhhhh!!!

I like the way things are! 😁

J Boogie

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #102 on: September 27, 2019, 05:15:12 PM »
Wait there is a whole generation of avacado toast eating homeless people using excel?

Oh the humanity.

Sounds like a decent horror movie plot.
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Go Pro , DXC, Trip advisory , Century link (those millennial and internet am I right? ) Cloud companies like F5, Juniper, Netapp, Citrix
Most of the "winners" you picked like netflix, amazon, apple, google are down more right now than the S & P index they are in and when there is a downturn they most likely will fall further then the index.

GoPro I'll allow as a good example. The others don't seem to be well known or favored by millenials. Though they use the internet more, you never heard any millennial rave about their experience with an ISP. Citrix hasn't been a clear loser vs the S&P over most time frames.

I agree that netflix will fall further - much further. But I actually think the other FAANG members are pretty fairly valued right now and AMZN and GOOGL will continue to beat the S&P while AAPL matches it.

bthewalls

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #103 on: September 27, 2019, 06:08:08 PM »
Wonder what effect trumps impeachment will have on market...im secretly hoping for a market crash and index fund crash...sorry

harvestbook

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #104 on: September 27, 2019, 07:26:17 PM »
Wonder what effect trumps impeachment will have on market...im secretly hoping for a market crash and index fund crash...sorry

Yes, and all the unforeseen and unintended consequences that might go with it, such as you losing a job, place to live, health issues at the wrong time, hard times for the people you love, a fundamental collapse of the entire economy, even the death of capitalism itself. Sounds like a fun ride.

I choose market agnosticism.

talltexan

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #105 on: October 07, 2019, 07:20:24 AM »
Wonder what effect trumps impeachment will have on market...im secretly hoping for a market crash and index fund crash...sorry

(disclosure: I am a registered republican #nevertrumper )

I believe impeachment will have no effect on the market. I believe Trump's removal from office by the Senate--if it should happen--will cause an upward surge, because it will mean the end of the Trade War.

If Trump serves out his term, but is defeated for re-election, I believe there will be a correction. If Warren defeats him, I think bank stocks will fall the farthest.

I'm 39 years old and own roughly 20% bonds.

Travis

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #106 on: October 07, 2019, 09:02:13 PM »
Wonder what effect trumps impeachment will have on market...im secretly hoping for a market crash and index fund crash...sorry

(disclosure: I am a registered republican #nevertrumper )

I believe impeachment will have no effect on the market. I believe Trump's removal from office by the Senate--if it should happen--will cause an upward surge, because it will mean the end of the Trade War.

If Trump serves out his term, but is defeated for re-election, I believe there will be a correction. If Warren defeats him, I think bank stocks will fall the farthest.

I'm 39 years old and own roughly 20% bonds.

Everyone flipped out after the original Brexit vote a couple years ago. There was a 3 day blip in the market and it returned to normal because after the initial shock people realized that nothing actually changed.  If the above scenario(s) take place I think there will be a similar up/down for a few days, but return to normal until actual legislation and executive decisions start happening again.

UnleashHell

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #107 on: October 08, 2019, 02:53:29 AM »
Wonder what effect trumps impeachment will have on market...im secretly hoping for a market crash and index fund crash...sorry

(disclosure: I am a registered republican #nevertrumper )

I believe impeachment will have no effect on the market. I believe Trump's removal from office by the Senate--if it should happen--will cause an upward surge, because it will mean the end of the Trade War.

If Trump serves out his term, but is defeated for re-election, I believe there will be a correction. If Warren defeats him, I think bank stocks will fall the farthest.

I'm 39 years old and own roughly 20% bonds.

Everyone flipped out after the original Brexit vote a couple years ago. There was a 3 day blip in the market and it returned to normal because after the initial shock people realized that nothing actually changed.  If the above scenario(s) take place I think there will be a similar up/down for a few days, but return to normal until actual legislation and executive decisions start happening again.

the value of the pound dropped immediately after the brexit vote. still hasn't recovered. down 20% now which should see exports cheaper  - yet the benefits of a cheaper currency hasn't materialized. its more expensive to import if you are in the states and more expensive to travel abroad - part of the knock on effect that impacted Thomas Cook maybe (I think - haven't put any time into researching that!!).

I think that the /us economy is fine. the flat-lining of the markets since the beginning of 2018 is the effect of the leadership of the current president. Business needs/wants a stable environment to be able to plan and execute it plans and it doesn't have it. I think that the end of the trump leadership and the possibility of a new leader that will not be as business friendly (for taxation purpose) is being priced in right now. Banks may suffer slightly from a new leader but more stability and less trade wars will offset that. We could be flat for another year yet but I believe the markets will rise after that.

naturally I am so confident I now have rental income and some bonds just in case it doesn't....

AdrianC

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #108 on: October 08, 2019, 10:20:07 AM »
NPR gets in on it with a silly headline:

Is Your Retirement Fund Ruining Our Economy?
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/10/08/767884839/is-your-retirement-fund-ruining-our-economy

We now look back at the housing bubble with an astonishment at the mass delusion behind the idea that home prices could always go up, and that more people like Michael Burry didn't see it coming. It's possible that someday, we'll look at the promise that everyone can just buy and hold pieces of an entire market and nothing will go wrong the same way.

Huh? Stocks go up, stocks go down. The trend is generally up, but the ride is lumpy. It is known.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 10:24:06 AM by AdrianC »

Sanitary Engineer

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #109 on: October 08, 2019, 01:34:38 PM »
NPR gets in on it with a silly headline:

Is Your Retirement Fund Ruining Our Economy?
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/10/08/767884839/is-your-retirement-fund-ruining-our-economy

We now look back at the housing bubble with an astonishment at the mass delusion behind the idea that home prices could always go up, and that more people like Michael Burry didn't see it coming. It's possible that someday, we'll look at the promise that everyone can just buy and hold pieces of an entire market and nothing will go wrong the same way.

Huh? Stocks go up, stocks go down. The trend is generally up, but the ride is lumpy. It is known.

I was not as upset about this article as the headline led me to believe I would be.  It seems like most of the people reporting on what Michael Burry said have absolutely no clue as to what he said and also don't care that they don't understand.

CSuzette

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #110 on: October 28, 2019, 05:52:50 AM »
Trump is not going to be impeached and he is going to have  4 more years to fix the decades of bad trade deals made by prior administrations. It was like they thought we should be punished for being successful so they gave away the farm. As soon as these deals are inked the economy and stocks are going to go crazy. Great time to buy!

talltexan

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Re: Michael Burry (Big Short) thinks index investing is the next market bubble.
« Reply #111 on: October 28, 2019, 12:26:18 PM »
Csuzette-
It seems as though you believe the opposite of what I believe: that Trump's trade actions will eventually lead to higher share prices. Can you go into more detail about how you concluded this?