I don't know what will happen but Grantham has been predicting a dire crash for over 10 years. And will keep predicting it.
It's 2022 now, so over 10 years ago means 2011 or before, which is around the time of the great financial crisis. Yes, Jeremey Grantham predicted that 2007-2009 crash... but I would call that accurate rather than criticizing him when he's right.
So I don't care what he says. I mean eventually we will have a major crash but I wouldn't look to Grantham.
He also predicted the Japan asset bubble back in the 1980s and the dot-com crash of 2000-2002. It's not like he's continously wrong - he's predicted each major crash.
He has been wrong constantly for a.dozen years and people would be much poorer for taking his advice. eventually he will be right just like broken clock.
Do you have evidence he has "been wrong constantly for a.dozen years"?
You're saying he predicted a crash in 2010, or are you confusing his correct prediction of the 2007-2009 crash with something else?
Someone staying in cash and waiting for the -51% drop could have made +100% by timing the crash perfectly, which leaves a lot of room to profit even without timing it perfectly.
Maybe this will finally be the time. Regardless I'll stay invested and buy the stocks on sale if we see a huge drop.
Finally? After Japan in the 1980s, the dot-com crash, and the global financial crisis... you seem to be ignoring everything he's called correctly.
Grantham been a permabear as long as I've been aware of him in the 1990s. You are correct his predictions have been good, the problem is if he ever changed to a bull, I sure missed it. I think what passes for bullish sentiment in Grantham, was IIRC in 2009 he stopped predicting the market would drop 50% soon.
Let's compare that to Warren Buffett, he was very bearish starting in 1999, bullish around 2003. I believe, he like I, completely missed the housing crisis. He was very bullish starting in 2008, and I was very bullish in 2009. Buffett become a bond bear, a decade ago with his "bonds are return-free risk", and cautious about the market for the last several years.
If you follow Grantham, and a friend of mine did, you have a lot of gold, and while you've missed all the bear markets, you've also missed the bull markets. If you follow Buffett, you got out of tech stocks in 2000, the best move I've made in my life. You got into real estate around 2011. Warren specifically said beaten down markets, Florida, Vegas, the Inland Empire, and you've been out of bonds for the last decade. But for the most part, you've been fully invested.
Berkshire Hathaway has not been a fabulous investment in the last 20 years, but it does well in bear markets, and good enough in bull markets, since he took over the company, from 1965 to the end of 2021, 20.1% CAGR. This is not a fluke, especially when he was younger.