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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: flyersman on January 30, 2017, 08:31:10 AM

Title: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: flyersman on January 30, 2017, 08:31:10 AM
So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: actionjackson on January 30, 2017, 08:38:59 AM
Seems to me like nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just an emotional blip. 1% down from historic highs isn't really a bargain.

Meanwhile, Imma grab my popcorn and wait for the 'don't time the market' posts.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Another Reader on January 30, 2017, 08:45:16 AM
Maybe the best investment will be popcorn futures.

I like a good dip in the market, but this show is not really scary if that's all that's happened.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: davisgang90 on January 30, 2017, 09:18:55 AM
Seems to me like nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just an emotional blip. 1% down from historic highs isn't really a bargain.

Meanwhile, Imma grab my popcorn and wait for the 'don't time the market' posts.
'Don't time the market'
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: neil on January 30, 2017, 09:23:10 AM
We are a long way from pre-election levels (130) if this is how far the market drops with this level of noise.  Nevermind a real correction or whatever.  The market is a turtle these days compared to more recent history (especially 2009). 

The market dropped 20 points on December 28th.  I wonder what that was about.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: threefive on January 30, 2017, 09:44:10 AM
My normal monthly contribution happens tomorrow. Hopefully it drops another 20 points tomorrow by market close when my shares are bought. And then it just goes back to doing what it's been doing since the entire Trumpagedon of the minute has blown by and the world is still turning.

I'd like to pay 40 points less than Friday, but in 10 years (or even 10 months), it just isn't going to matter.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: ysette9 on January 30, 2017, 09:46:36 AM
I'm not sure when my contributions hit but they do happen weekly. With this as with all other bumps in the road, my motto is "just keep swimming, just keep swimming".
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: spud1987 on January 30, 2017, 10:01:40 AM
I agree with everyone else who has said "don't time the market."

Even if you decide to time the market though, a one-day blip doesn't mean stocks are on sale. They are still 10% more expensive than November 1 prices.

I would look for trends instead of one-day movements when redeploying assets. I have a good chunk in bonds and cash right now (about 30%) and I might consider reallocating to stocks more heavily after a 10% drop. Even with a 20% drop in the market stocks would still be expensive from a historical PE point of view.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: WallStreetPhysician on January 30, 2017, 10:20:52 AM
So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)

Avoid the market headlines.  Warren Buffett does not check his portfolio daily. Stay the course and stick with your investment plan.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: seattlecyclone on January 30, 2017, 04:29:57 PM
The S&P 500 dropped 0.6% today. A one-day change of that magnitude happens pretty much every week. This could be the start of something big, or it could go right back up 0.6% tomorrow. The latter happens much more often.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: zazpowered on January 30, 2017, 07:05:31 PM
I've been collecting cash for a while now. I think it could definitely go quite a bit lower
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on January 30, 2017, 08:27:56 PM
Post election year February is historically the worst performing month in the year for stocks, fwiw.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 31, 2017, 09:10:44 AM
So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)

Nobody knows. If they did they would be on their private island doing weird stuff and not posting here.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: acroy on January 31, 2017, 09:21:49 AM
For sure it's gonna crash 50%+... eventually. My crystal ball doesn't say when.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Tyson on January 31, 2017, 09:35:04 AM
Saying there will be a crash or a bull market is akin to saying that it will rain some day.  Of course that's going to happen.  Tons of people were saying that we'd have a crash in 2016.  They were wrong, so they just moved their date to 2017 instead now.  If you keep moving your date, eventually you'll be right.  Not unlike a broken clock that is right twice a day. 

Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on January 31, 2017, 09:52:52 AM
Remember this whole eventual 50% crash thing is recency bias post 2007. The only way you got burnt was if you panicked and sold. The dividends keep rolling - mostly - and the losses are only real if and when you sell. B&H investors did fine. Stocks went on sale for a while. As did real estate as ARS will attest.

You can't really destroy cash only erode it via inflation. For every sell there's a buy and visa versa. Eventually the cash will return to the market as there is nowhere else for it to go.

So, dca into the market according to your asset allocation. If stocks go down say 20% this month it just gets you more stock for your money.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Cwadda on January 31, 2017, 10:08:58 AM
My crystal ball says the S&P 500 will decrease by 2.38% in the month of February. Hope this helps!
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: frugledoc on January 31, 2017, 11:55:57 AM
I've been collecting cash for a while now. I think it could definitely go quite a bit lower

Wow, you've missed some out on some decent gains.

What is your buy in target and what will you do if it doesn't get there?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on January 31, 2017, 12:10:42 PM
My crystal ball says the S&P 500 will decrease by 2.38% in the month of February. Hope this helps!

Damn.  I was really hoping for a much bigger drop... I've got a big slug of cash coming in feb/March. Give that crystal ball another look?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Timodeus on January 31, 2017, 12:59:26 PM
Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks. 
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Tyson on January 31, 2017, 01:20:58 PM
Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks.

What kind of timeline are you looking at?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: frugledoc on January 31, 2017, 01:35:22 PM
Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks.

People seem fearful rather than greedy to me at the moment.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Car Jack on January 31, 2017, 01:40:08 PM
I'll wait until the Dow solidly hits the henweigh, then buy, buy, buy!
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: MasterStache on January 31, 2017, 01:40:53 PM
80% of the time it falls all the time. The other 20% of the time it never goes up. Did you know that 90% of all statistics are made up on the spot, including this one?

Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Indexer on January 31, 2017, 01:54:32 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrlOeeJCEAAXieL.jpg)

Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: RangerOne on January 31, 2017, 05:41:42 PM
Reactions to political moves scare people and move money but those are just normal fluctuations. We will know a crash when we are in one, but no one can tell you where the bottom is until you are well into a recovery.

I still remember vaguely the talk of a double dip recession in 08, so even early recovery is not always an indication you have hit the bottom.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 31, 2017, 05:44:17 PM
I predict the Great Crash of 2017 will start with the first missile fired at a Chinese ship. It'll be hard to miss if you read any news.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: aschmidt2930 on January 31, 2017, 07:20:07 PM
The market goes up and down in these increments all the time, sometimes for no tangible reason at all.

When it happens at the same time as a CNN headline, the narrative is "market down on X"!, when in reality, nobody has a clue whether that's true.

If the market dropped 5% in a couple days perhaps there would be something worth discussing here.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on January 31, 2017, 10:47:56 PM
 http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN15F286  (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN15F286)

Well, Warren Buffett just said he bought $12 billion in stocks after the election. Nice.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Travis on February 01, 2017, 01:22:59 AM
The market goes up and down in these increments all the time, sometimes for no tangible reason at all.

When it happens at the same time as a CNN headline, the narrative is "market down on X"!, when in reality, nobody has a clue whether that's true.

If the market dropped 5% in a couple days perhaps there would be something worth discussing here.

The recent "drop" means about as much as asking me if I'm coming down with swine flu because you watched me sneeze. No reason for it. Sometimes I just sneeze and carry on. When I stumble and hit the deck sweating profusely you can worry about me. By then I'd been infected for a few days and you can only pinpoint that day in hindsight anyways.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Cwadda on February 01, 2017, 09:15:25 AM
My crystal ball says the S&P 500 will decrease by 2.38% in the month of February. Hope this helps!

Damn.  I was really hoping for a much bigger drop... I've got a big slug of cash coming in feb/March. Give that crystal ball another look?

I tried asking my eight ball instead. This was the result :/

(http://i67.tinypic.com/11io29w.png)
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Metric Mouse on February 01, 2017, 10:16:34 AM
I predict the Great Crash of 2017 will start with the first missile fired at a Chinese ship. It'll be hard to miss if you read any news.
Hopefully the president puts a hefty tax on that chinese manufactured missile.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 01, 2017, 12:56:12 PM
I predict the Great Crash of 2017 will start with the first missile fired at a Chinese ship. It'll be hard to miss if you read any news.
Hopefully the president puts a hefty tax on that chinese manufactured missile.

Reminds me how Ukraine pays interest on much of its national debt to Russia, which is in the process of invading it.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Timodeus on February 01, 2017, 01:15:40 PM
Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks.

What kind of timeline are you looking at?

1.5 to 2 years. Having our first child this year and moving across country for a job transfer (Northeast to Texas) will occupy most of this year. Haven't finalized any plans yet so saving/investing is still status quo. I will probably halt contributions to the IRA and ESPP soon, while preserving our 401k and HSA contributions. I'm still leaving an opening to max out the IRA come next spring if change plans and we want to continue renting.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: smacpa on February 04, 2017, 06:21:28 PM
Market is back up
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: marty998 on February 06, 2017, 12:04:41 AM
Market is back up

Because Trump is repealing Dodd-Frank? The very thing that tries to stop the Banks from doing stupid things and getting into messes like 2007 has been repealed.

Wonderful news

/s
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on February 06, 2017, 03:22:19 AM
Market is back up

Because Trump is repealing Dodd-Frank? The very thing that tries to stop the Banks from doing stupid things and getting into messes like 2007 has been repealed.

Wonderful news

/s

Hey, don't forget he's also giving me back my rights as a financial advisor to convince granny and grandpa to buy a high commission variable annuity and some other low liquidity/high fee investment products! :-)

LOL

The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.

SAD!
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: NoStacheOhio on February 06, 2017, 06:36:06 AM
Market is back up

Because Trump is repealing Dodd-Frank? The very thing that tries to stop the Banks from doing stupid things and getting into messes like 2007 has been repealed.

Wonderful news

/s

This is the one thing that kind of gives me pause. Just because it's so clear what happened in 2008. Even with Dodd-Frank, I think it would be pretty easy to build up another bubble like that with crazy synthetic instruments, but without it ...

I haven't changed anything, mostly because I'm firmly in the "stocks are the least-worst option" camp.

Also, Dodd-Frank is a law passed by Congress, how the hell do you gut it with an executive order?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: talltexan on February 06, 2017, 08:39:31 AM
Many observers (Nassim Taleb, for example) didn't think D-F did enough to prevent the problem re-occurring.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: NoStacheOhio on February 06, 2017, 09:11:45 AM
Many observers (Nassim Taleb, for example) didn't think D-F did enough to prevent the problem re-occurring.

I'd agree with that, but I'd still argue Dodd-Frank is better than "Do what ever you want."
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Metric Mouse on February 07, 2017, 08:12:03 PM
Many observers (Nassim Taleb, for example) didn't think D-F did enough to prevent the problem re-occurring.

I'd agree with that, but I'd still argue Dodd-Frank is better than "Do what ever you want."
If we gain like this for another year before the whole thing collapses 2008 style, I will be fine. So hopefully things take at least that long to bubble up.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: theolympians on February 07, 2017, 09:28:24 PM
I tend to go to marketwatch and bloomberg daily. I don't know why, there really isn't any news. Most of the stories are about the coming crash, or the coming bull market. There are plenty of of "mays, coulds, wonderings, etc." 90% of the stories seem to be based some random joes that happened to pick up the phone and give them the angle the reporter wants.

Make cake put it in the oven. Invest money (in sound instruments) and wait......no market timing....
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: powskier on February 07, 2017, 10:15:10 PM
Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: bobechs on February 07, 2017, 10:57:34 PM
Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.

Like the guaranteed impending (it happens each) May slump of 20% we got promised last year about this time?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Retire-Canada on February 08, 2017, 06:18:14 AM
Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.

MMM forums needs a "Market Timing/The Next Great Crash!!" sub-forum.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on February 08, 2017, 06:42:17 AM
Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.

MMM forums needs a "Market Timing/The Next Great Crash!!" sub-forum.

and another one for "where is a place to put my cash that's 100% safe, liquid, and where I also get good returns risk free?"  [face palm]
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: KBecks on February 08, 2017, 07:22:35 AM
My more experienced friends say that you *need* volatility in the market to make money long term.   I'm still learning to assess and buy on the dips.  Dollar cost averaging has worked for my family for decades.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Kaspian on February 08, 2017, 09:01:13 AM
My more experienced friends say that you *need* volatility in the market to make money long term.   I'm still learning to assess and buy on the dips.  Dollar cost averaging has worked for my family for decades.

^^Exactly!  Stocks in general work on a risk/reward basis.  If they were all a 100% sure fire bet, they wouldn't go up or down in value and any dividends would be negligible.  Even indexing, there is risk--and you (rightfully!) get paid for taking that risk because there is a chance you could lose everything.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: talltexan on February 08, 2017, 02:07:53 PM
Rather than buying at my target allocation, I put 100% of what I have into whatever is below target. So right now, my Single stock play is less than 1/3 of my retirement account, so I'm pumping that...If I get a rapid gain there, I'll switch it to SP500 getting 100% while the SP is low.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Dicey on February 09, 2017, 07:29:19 AM
The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.

SAD!
Interesting. How are the majority of the population who voted otherwise not going to get screwed?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: bobechs on February 09, 2017, 06:06:31 PM
The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.

SAD!
Interesting. How are the majority of the population who voted otherwise not going to get screwed?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on February 10, 2017, 06:48:52 AM
The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.

SAD!
Interesting. How are the majority of the population who voted otherwise not going to get screwed?

Indeed Diane.

Unfortunately all lower income people will get screwed. The richer asset holders will benefit from the tax cuts and other policies.

It's just ironic that many of the lower income voters who fell for the rhetoric  will get the negative impact of the policies that will increase prices and gut social services.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: RangerOne on February 10, 2017, 12:55:15 PM
I'll keep making 10%+ compound interest while people hold cash trying to time the next crash. Then when we all recover I will still likely be ahead of most people. Except the one lucky son of a bitch who wins the lotto and successfully times the next crash.
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Retire-Canada on February 10, 2017, 04:27:43 PM
I'll keep making 10%+ compound interest while people hold cash trying to time the next crash. Then when we all recover I will still likely be ahead of most people. Except the one lucky son of a bitch who wins the lotto and successfully times the next crash.

(https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/514/32786708776_404e4bc612_b.jpg)

Agreed. I'm with you on the wild ride. :)
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Laserjet3051 on February 11, 2017, 01:46:11 PM
^ Great graphic!
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Metric Mouse on February 12, 2017, 09:02:50 PM
Except the one lucky son of a bitch who wins the lotto and successfully times the next crash.
Well if he can do it, so can I!
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Retire-Canada on February 15, 2017, 05:24:08 PM
So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)

So far it's looking like the Great Not Crash of 2017 so far.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/15/investing/stock-market-record-trump/index.html
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Tyson on February 15, 2017, 08:49:08 PM
So, how far down did the markets go?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Metric Mouse on February 15, 2017, 09:37:03 PM
So, how far down did the markets go?
Well, looking at the trend, looks like they are lower than they will be next week, which is lower than they will be the week after. Does this count?
Title: Re: Markets Down. How far will they go?
Post by: Mr Mark on February 16, 2017, 05:07:00 AM
So, how far down did the markets go?
Well, looking at the trend, looks like they are lower than they will be next week, which is lower than they will be the week after. Does this count?

nice one.