The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: flyersman on January 30, 2017, 08:31:10 AM
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So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)
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Seems to me like nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just an emotional blip. 1% down from historic highs isn't really a bargain.
Meanwhile, Imma grab my popcorn and wait for the 'don't time the market' posts.
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Maybe the best investment will be popcorn futures.
I like a good dip in the market, but this show is not really scary if that's all that's happened.
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Seems to me like nothing has fundamentally changed. It's just an emotional blip. 1% down from historic highs isn't really a bargain.
Meanwhile, Imma grab my popcorn and wait for the 'don't time the market' posts.
'Don't time the market'
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We are a long way from pre-election levels (130) if this is how far the market drops with this level of noise. Nevermind a real correction or whatever. The market is a turtle these days compared to more recent history (especially 2009).
The market dropped 20 points on December 28th. I wonder what that was about.
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My normal monthly contribution happens tomorrow. Hopefully it drops another 20 points tomorrow by market close when my shares are bought. And then it just goes back to doing what it's been doing since the entire Trumpagedon of the minute has blown by and the world is still turning.
I'd like to pay 40 points less than Friday, but in 10 years (or even 10 months), it just isn't going to matter.
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I'm not sure when my contributions hit but they do happen weekly. With this as with all other bumps in the road, my motto is "just keep swimming, just keep swimming".
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I agree with everyone else who has said "don't time the market."
Even if you decide to time the market though, a one-day blip doesn't mean stocks are on sale. They are still 10% more expensive than November 1 prices.
I would look for trends instead of one-day movements when redeploying assets. I have a good chunk in bonds and cash right now (about 30%) and I might consider reallocating to stocks more heavily after a 10% drop. Even with a 20% drop in the market stocks would still be expensive from a historical PE point of view.
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So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)
Avoid the market headlines. Warren Buffett does not check his portfolio daily. Stay the course and stick with your investment plan.
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The S&P 500 dropped 0.6% today. A one-day change of that magnitude happens pretty much every week. This could be the start of something big, or it could go right back up 0.6% tomorrow. The latter happens much more often.
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I've been collecting cash for a while now. I think it could definitely go quite a bit lower
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Post election year February is historically the worst performing month in the year for stocks, fwiw.
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So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)
Nobody knows. If they did they would be on their private island doing weird stuff and not posting here.
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For sure it's gonna crash 50%+... eventually. My crystal ball doesn't say when.
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Saying there will be a crash or a bull market is akin to saying that it will rain some day. Of course that's going to happen. Tons of people were saying that we'd have a crash in 2016. They were wrong, so they just moved their date to 2017 instead now. If you keep moving your date, eventually you'll be right. Not unlike a broken clock that is right twice a day.
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Remember this whole eventual 50% crash thing is recency bias post 2007. The only way you got burnt was if you panicked and sold. The dividends keep rolling - mostly - and the losses are only real if and when you sell. B&H investors did fine. Stocks went on sale for a while. As did real estate as ARS will attest.
You can't really destroy cash only erode it via inflation. For every sell there's a buy and visa versa. Eventually the cash will return to the market as there is nowhere else for it to go.
So, dca into the market according to your asset allocation. If stocks go down say 20% this month it just gets you more stock for your money.
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My crystal ball says the S&P 500 will decrease by 2.38% in the month of February. Hope this helps!
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I've been collecting cash for a while now. I think it could definitely go quite a bit lower
Wow, you've missed some out on some decent gains.
What is your buy in target and what will you do if it doesn't get there?
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My crystal ball says the S&P 500 will decrease by 2.38% in the month of February. Hope this helps!
Damn. I was really hoping for a much bigger drop... I've got a big slug of cash coming in feb/March. Give that crystal ball another look?
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Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks.
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Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks.
What kind of timeline are you looking at?
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Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks.
People seem fearful rather than greedy to me at the moment.
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I'll wait until the Dow solidly hits the henweigh, then buy, buy, buy!
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80% of the time it falls all the time. The other 20% of the time it never goes up. Did you know that 90% of all statistics are made up on the spot, including this one?
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BrlOeeJCEAAXieL.jpg)
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Reactions to political moves scare people and move money but those are just normal fluctuations. We will know a crash when we are in one, but no one can tell you where the bottom is until you are well into a recovery.
I still remember vaguely the talk of a double dip recession in 08, so even early recovery is not always an indication you have hit the bottom.
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I predict the Great Crash of 2017 will start with the first missile fired at a Chinese ship. It'll be hard to miss if you read any news.
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The market goes up and down in these increments all the time, sometimes for no tangible reason at all.
When it happens at the same time as a CNN headline, the narrative is "market down on X"!, when in reality, nobody has a clue whether that's true.
If the market dropped 5% in a couple days perhaps there would be something worth discussing here.
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http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN15F286 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN15F286)
Well, Warren Buffett just said he bought $12 billion in stocks after the election. Nice.
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The market goes up and down in these increments all the time, sometimes for no tangible reason at all.
When it happens at the same time as a CNN headline, the narrative is "market down on X"!, when in reality, nobody has a clue whether that's true.
If the market dropped 5% in a couple days perhaps there would be something worth discussing here.
The recent "drop" means about as much as asking me if I'm coming down with swine flu because you watched me sneeze. No reason for it. Sometimes I just sneeze and carry on. When I stumble and hit the deck sweating profusely you can worry about me. By then I'd been infected for a few days and you can only pinpoint that day in hindsight anyways.
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My crystal ball says the S&P 500 will decrease by 2.38% in the month of February. Hope this helps!
Damn. I was really hoping for a much bigger drop... I've got a big slug of cash coming in feb/March. Give that crystal ball another look?
I tried asking my eight ball instead. This was the result :/
(http://i67.tinypic.com/11io29w.png)
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I predict the Great Crash of 2017 will start with the first missile fired at a Chinese ship. It'll be hard to miss if you read any news.
Hopefully the president puts a hefty tax on that chinese manufactured missile.
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I predict the Great Crash of 2017 will start with the first missile fired at a Chinese ship. It'll be hard to miss if you read any news.
Hopefully the president puts a hefty tax on that chinese manufactured missile.
Reminds me how Ukraine pays interest on much of its national debt to Russia, which is in the process of invading it.
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Wife and I are at the point where we want to save for a home. I'm not selling any assets to do it so we have to build up some cash. While I usually hate building cash instead of investing (I already have probably too large of an Emergency Fund) with recent political events and new all time highs in asset prices, building up a down payment is easier for me to swallow. I agree philosophically with most people here that market timing is for chumps, but being fearful when everyone is greedy is sure looking nice right now. My plan is-if markets keep going up, I buy a house my family will live in, if they crash (at least -25%) I'll shelve the house idea and dump the cash into stocks.
What kind of timeline are you looking at?
1.5 to 2 years. Having our first child this year and moving across country for a job transfer (Northeast to Texas) will occupy most of this year. Haven't finalized any plans yet so saving/investing is still status quo. I will probably halt contributions to the IRA and ESPP soon, while preserving our 401k and HSA contributions. I'm still leaving an opening to max out the IRA come next spring if change plans and we want to continue renting.
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Market is back up
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Market is back up
Because Trump is repealing Dodd-Frank? The very thing that tries to stop the Banks from doing stupid things and getting into messes like 2007 has been repealed.
Wonderful news
/s
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Market is back up
Because Trump is repealing Dodd-Frank? The very thing that tries to stop the Banks from doing stupid things and getting into messes like 2007 has been repealed.
Wonderful news
/s
Hey, don't forget he's also giving me back my rights as a financial advisor to convince granny and grandpa to buy a high commission variable annuity and some other low liquidity/high fee investment products! :-)
LOL
The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.
SAD!
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Market is back up
Because Trump is repealing Dodd-Frank? The very thing that tries to stop the Banks from doing stupid things and getting into messes like 2007 has been repealed.
Wonderful news
/s
This is the one thing that kind of gives me pause. Just because it's so clear what happened in 2008. Even with Dodd-Frank, I think it would be pretty easy to build up another bubble like that with crazy synthetic instruments, but without it ...
I haven't changed anything, mostly because I'm firmly in the "stocks are the least-worst option" camp.
Also, Dodd-Frank is a law passed by Congress, how the hell do you gut it with an executive order?
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Many observers (Nassim Taleb, for example) didn't think D-F did enough to prevent the problem re-occurring.
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Many observers (Nassim Taleb, for example) didn't think D-F did enough to prevent the problem re-occurring.
I'd agree with that, but I'd still argue Dodd-Frank is better than "Do what ever you want."
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Many observers (Nassim Taleb, for example) didn't think D-F did enough to prevent the problem re-occurring.
I'd agree with that, but I'd still argue Dodd-Frank is better than "Do what ever you want."
If we gain like this for another year before the whole thing collapses 2008 style, I will be fine. So hopefully things take at least that long to bubble up.
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I tend to go to marketwatch and bloomberg daily. I don't know why, there really isn't any news. Most of the stories are about the coming crash, or the coming bull market. There are plenty of of "mays, coulds, wonderings, etc." 90% of the stories seem to be based some random joes that happened to pick up the phone and give them the angle the reporter wants.
Make cake put it in the oven. Invest money (in sound instruments) and wait......no market timing....
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Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.
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Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.
Like the guaranteed impending (it happens each) May slump of 20% we got promised last year about this time?
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Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.
MMM forums needs a "Market Timing/The Next Great Crash!!" sub-forum.
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Maybe every time someone starts one of these threads about the impending drop, we can have a generic sticky listing the ten gazillion other times someone has started this exact thread with the exact same outcome.
MMM forums needs a "Market Timing/The Next Great Crash!!" sub-forum.
and another one for "where is a place to put my cash that's 100% safe, liquid, and where I also get good returns risk free?" [face palm]
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My more experienced friends say that you *need* volatility in the market to make money long term. I'm still learning to assess and buy on the dips. Dollar cost averaging has worked for my family for decades.
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My more experienced friends say that you *need* volatility in the market to make money long term. I'm still learning to assess and buy on the dips. Dollar cost averaging has worked for my family for decades.
^^Exactly! Stocks in general work on a risk/reward basis. If they were all a 100% sure fire bet, they wouldn't go up or down in value and any dividends would be negligible. Even indexing, there is risk--and you (rightfully!) get paid for taking that risk because there is a chance you could lose everything.
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Rather than buying at my target allocation, I put 100% of what I have into whatever is below target. So right now, my Single stock play is less than 1/3 of my retirement account, so I'm pumping that...If I get a rapid gain there, I'll switch it to SP500 getting 100% while the SP is low.
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The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.
SAD!
Interesting. How are the majority of the population who voted otherwise not going to get screwed?
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The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.
SAD!
Interesting. How are the majority of the population who voted otherwise not going to get screwed?
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The very idiots who voted for him are going to get screwed - higher taxes (border adjustment) on imports, reduced personal tax allowances (?), gutted pseudo-healthcare, semi-privatised state level medicare/medicaid, useless school vouchers that won't cover their school fees, and perhaps a war or two for their children to fight.
SAD!
Interesting. How are the majority of the population who voted otherwise not going to get screwed?
Indeed Diane.
Unfortunately all lower income people will get screwed. The richer asset holders will benefit from the tax cuts and other policies.
It's just ironic that many of the lower income voters who fell for the rhetoric will get the negative impact of the policies that will increase prices and gut social services.
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I'll keep making 10%+ compound interest while people hold cash trying to time the next crash. Then when we all recover I will still likely be ahead of most people. Except the one lucky son of a bitch who wins the lotto and successfully times the next crash.
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I'll keep making 10%+ compound interest while people hold cash trying to time the next crash. Then when we all recover I will still likely be ahead of most people. Except the one lucky son of a bitch who wins the lotto and successfully times the next crash.
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/514/32786708776_404e4bc612_b.jpg)
Agreed. I'm with you on the wild ride. :)
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^ Great graphic!
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Except the one lucky son of a bitch who wins the lotto and successfully times the next crash.
Well if he can do it, so can I!
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So with the recent snafu caused by Trumps immigration ban the S&P + stocks are all down over 20points. I like a good sale especially with the markets riding high. How much and for how long do you think the markets will suffer. When will you be contributing? I have cash ready to go for more FSTVX (Fidelity Total)
So far it's looking like the Great Not Crash of 2017 so far.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/15/investing/stock-market-record-trump/index.html
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So, how far down did the markets go?
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So, how far down did the markets go?
Well, looking at the trend, looks like they are lower than they will be next week, which is lower than they will be the week after. Does this count?
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So, how far down did the markets go?
Well, looking at the trend, looks like they are lower than they will be next week, which is lower than they will be the week after. Does this count?
nice one.