Author Topic: Market timing wins  (Read 32717 times)

forummm

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #50 on: June 15, 2016, 10:55:42 AM »
This meant that she and I got to be part of the greatest one-day drop in a publicly traded company yesterday when SYF fell 15% in one day. Perhaps I've got the wrong thread?

Don't know about that...ENRON stock prices fell >20% in a day multiple days, with its greatest fall being 85% in a single day.  Or are you referring to another metric other than % change?

Yeah. SCTY and SUNE have had more than 20% drops in a day multiple times in the past year. The entire market dropped 20+% on one day in 1987.

Roots&Wings

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #51 on: June 15, 2016, 11:15:47 AM »
BRK.B at $74.62 in 2011 now $141.52. Perfect example of the only way my market timing wins: buy it and forget it. I have no short-term wins (perennially buy at "market highs", time is my only friend).
« Last Edit: June 15, 2016, 11:19:28 AM by step-in-time »

RosieTR

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #52 on: June 15, 2016, 05:36:12 PM »
I bought a house in Denver in mid 2011 for $220k with a mortgage at 3.75%. The Denver market has been going crazy for the past 2 years and I could sell today for $310k easy. We're hanging on to it as a rental so far, but will probably liquidate it next year if we don't decide to move back in. I'm not convinced job growth is keeping up with housing growth.

The jobs are there, but the wages not so much. It does have to end somewhere.

DH has a great story: he was in the military and a friend was selling a life insurance/investment product, so he bought some to be nice (probably whole life insurance which was dumb for a 20 yo single guy with military coverage, but anyway). Forgot about it when he left the military. A few years later, the people running the fund tracked him down to say that they were going to start charging inactivity fees on his account. He says "well hey, cash it out then" thinking there wasn't much there because he hadn't invested all that much. Well, he got a check for several grand, because this was the top of the dot-com boom! We were trying to figure out what to do with it as a couple of very green, just starting out, "investors". I was reading YMOYL at that time and said well hey, why don't we go with a 30y Treasury? DH found a broker, who thought we were stupid and crazy to buy a bond at "historically low" 5.25%. Hahahahahahahaha! You can't touch even half that these days if a non-volatile, extremely safe, guaranteed return on a liquid asset is your goal. My first lesson that financial advisors/brokers/etc probably have as little idea of what lies ahead in the market as I do. Totally awesome way to learn that, rather than the other way around!

Systems101

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #53 on: June 15, 2016, 06:04:25 PM »
I suspect buying bonds of financial companies in 4Q 2008 isn't "fortuitous", it's properly called "playing with fire".  I "timed the market" because every sign I could find was that the bond market was completely dysfunctional.  I read lots of financial statements, watched for inefficiencies in the bond market (it's much less efficient than stocks, so when no one wants to buy and someone needs to sell - perhaps due to a margin call - you can find crazy offers).  It was risky, and I knew what I could and couldn't risk.  I wouldn't advise anyone to "try this at home".

I bought a bunch of bonds, but one was particularly a "risk play" that I fully expected to blow up in my face.  I think we know the history, but there was pretty much an expectation that certain companies would implode.  Ambac and MBIA as major bond insurance companies were among those on death watch (not as bad as AIG, but still).  I purchased a small amount (insignificant in my overall portfolio) of MBIA bonds in November 2008  ...for 28c on the dollar.

Within about 4 years, I received back my initial investment in interest payments.  I'm < 1 year from that happening yet again.  In the remaining 6 years, it will happen a third time, and then I will receive a principal payment equal to more than 350% of my initial investment.  Assuming I held cash after the interest payments, I will make ~550% profit over 14 years... Yield to Maturity on the bond was something like 32%.  ...but I didn't do cash, a lot of that had significant opportunity to be invested in the market since it was received back so early in the 14 year investment horizon... so the overall return is even more obscene.


markbike528CBX

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #54 on: June 15, 2016, 08:13:33 PM »
BRK.B march 2009 @ 48. now 140 - a "3bagger" on an S&P500

VSIAX same time veerrry close to the exact low.

However, I had blown all my free cash by then by buying lots of stock/vanguard on the way down.
 So the two above are the smallest transactions I did at that time.

Stll haven't sold, so they don't really qualify.

Seppia

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #55 on: June 16, 2016, 01:50:35 AM »
At the time of the last crash I lived in France.
Was buying on the way down some Axa (French insurance company).
Averaged all the way down to 10
batch was bought at 5.88, now worth around 21.
Since I tried to time the market I sold them all at 15.5, missing in a ton of gains

RichMoose

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #56 on: June 16, 2016, 07:18:08 AM »
I had 2 lucky timing experiences. Back in 2010 I had saved about $20k, sitting in my TFSA and regular investment account from working 80 hr weeks in construction. I went through a major career change, moving, etc so I decided to invest in stocks. I bought $10k of Potash Corp at around $31 (split adjusted) and sold about 2 months later for $50 after BHP Billiton put in a massive offer for the company which was ultimately rejected by the Canadian government. With the other $10k I bought a penny stock Mart Resources, a small oil company exploring in Nigeria, for around $0.25 and sold just under a year later for around $0.70. After selling Potash I invested that money in Mart Resources as well (talk about diversification haha!) for $0.35 a share and sold with the rest for $0.70. I ended up pulling all my money out of the market for a downpayment on our house and was able to scrape together enough money to avoid needing mortgage insurance. Essentially in under 1 year $20k became $60k!

In the long run, I would have been better to rent and move to index investing at that time. Our house has not really gone up in value at all since we bought spring of 2011.

Pylortes

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #57 on: June 16, 2016, 06:30:48 PM »
I get an annual bonus in March of each year and I always have extra $ put into the 401k on the bonus check (about 3-4 times the regular 401k deposit).  In 2009 it was deposited in index funds in my 401k on March 10, 2009- the very day after the absolute bottom of the market.  That bigger contribution has had the wind behind its sails ever since.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 08:32:45 AM by Pylortes »

rmendpara

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #58 on: June 16, 2016, 08:13:30 PM »
Picking up decent stocks when they are "reasonably valued" or especially a long-standing company which just had a bad quarter is my specialty. :)

Well, not really a specialty, I just happen to buy after those events often. Some have paid out well since then, and others are still waiting to improve.

XOM in low $70s, CSCO is mid $20s, MSFT in the low $40s, ADM in mid-$30s, AAPL way back when in the mid $400s, and so on.

I generally try to wait for pullbacks when certain names get too rich. DIS at $120+ and NKE at $65+ were two stocks I wanted to own but which haven't pulled back a ton until recently. Finally DIS ~$100 and NKE ~$55. Not dirt cheap, but big pullbacks after mildly disappointing earnings.

Truthfully, there are also some that haven't worked out so well. KMI, NOV, AXP and a handful of others have gone down 10%+ since my first entries. I may add to some, but energy has just taken massive beatings and can't win them all!

Seppia

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Market timing wins
« Reply #59 on: June 17, 2016, 07:19:50 AM »
This said, I noticed I have an impressive track record of beating the market in the last three years:



This is my "fun" account, approximately 15% of my total assets.

Over performance is mainly based on two things:
1 bought a lot of Amazon with an average buying price of $330
2 bought energy stocks on the way down

What I would not like to mention is that I sold Amazon on average at $550, missing on a ton of gains.

While I am against market timing, I will sometimes buy some very solid companies after an unusual drop.
I was able to almost catch the bottom on DD (DuPont), bought at $49, for example.

Those I usually hold forever except when valuations become stupid (i.e. Amazon that now is worth more than Walmart).

Possibly just luck (I was lagging the market for a while), but I think being contrarian can pay off at times, and if you buy only / mostly huge established companies the risk of getting hurt are very low.
My holdings include stuff like PG, RDS, PFE, WMT, etc
« Last Edit: June 17, 2016, 07:24:39 AM by Seppia »

talltexan

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #60 on: June 19, 2016, 06:22:45 AM »
I'm tiring of individual stocks. Having to check them all the time is just wearing me out. And I miss the big drops anyway because the big money moves before I can.


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Heckler

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #61 on: June 23, 2016, 09:11:34 PM »
We will see tomorrow...

onlykelsey

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #62 on: June 23, 2016, 09:13:21 PM »
We will see tomorrow...

I was waiting for someone to post this. Did you read Soros' take on this?

Heckler

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #63 on: June 23, 2016, 10:16:33 PM »
nope.  who's Soro?

I happened to sell my EAFE index on Tuesday and transfer it from my 0.6 MER work plan to my 0.2 self directed ETF account.  Will buy back as soon as I have the cash in my account.  Crossing fingers for a crash and quick mailman delivering the check.

Vagabond76

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #64 on: June 24, 2016, 05:06:43 AM »
Unloaded $322,000 of TSP C- and S-Funds yesterday ahead of the Brexit panic selling. This represents only a fraction of my holdings, but it is a considerable sum that won't fall off the cliff.

On the other hand, the sun came up this morning and the birds are chirping, so the world didn't come to an end. I will let the dust settle and get back in maybe as early as next week. Would be nice to hold at least 10% more shares than before.

ShoulderThingThatGoesUp

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #65 on: June 24, 2016, 05:13:11 AM »
This is not a shining day for my SCHF holdings, I'm sure. That said, it's payday so hopefully my 401k contribution posts after market open.

mjones1234

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #66 on: June 24, 2016, 05:27:41 AM »
Several years ago, I was home with family on a Christmas holiday and the weather was terrible. So, I decided to make a day trade to pass the time. Bought Amazon and sold it within 4 hours and cleared 21k. Sold it, bought a new minivan for the family. Sure, that was nice but if I had held the stock, I could have bought a fleet of them today.

onlykelsey

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #67 on: June 24, 2016, 06:21:34 AM »
nope.  who's Soro?

I happened to sell my EAFE index on Tuesday and transfer it from my 0.6 MER work plan to my 0.2 self directed ETF account.  Will buy back as soon as I have the cash in my account.  Crossing fingers for a crash and quick mailman delivering the check.

George Soros, of "broke the bank of England" fame.  There's an interesting book on it called "More Money than God" and a shorter article here: http://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-george-soros-broke/ He made billion(s?) on Black Wednesday by essentially forcing the Bank of England to exit an exchange rate mechanism they had entered in to two years prior, after pouring tens of billions of dollars in to the pound (and raising interest rates to 15% in one day) to artificially (and unsuccessfully) raise the pound's valuation during the course of Black Wednesday.

Tester

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #68 on: June 30, 2016, 03:15:28 PM »
I will list a market timing "fail".
In 2008 I "knew" shares for a company would rise.
I talked with my wife about buying 5k EUR worth of it but we decided to not do it because those were money for building our house.

Now those shares rose 20X in 9 years.

Even in the short time the shares doubled in 3 months...

EDIT: I saw many mentioned the stock I did not disclose - I am talking about Amazon :).
And I had insider information...

We are not sad/mad, as we are not stock market players so we just stuck to what risk tolerance we had :).

One more: this month Nokia shares dropped 10% and I "knew" they would rebound, I did not buy as I am only buying individual stocks at the beginning of the month (80USD worth of individual stocks).
They rebounded, I will buy 80USD worth of it tomorrow :).
« Last Edit: June 30, 2016, 04:02:05 PM by Tester »

rob in cal

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #69 on: June 30, 2016, 03:20:22 PM »
  Buying our house in the summer of 1998 was perfect timing.  Values started taking off just months after our purchase.  Another one was putting money in prosper loans instead of the market in 2006-2008.  The loans ended up close to a wash due to recession, but I missed out on some market downturns.  Also, selling a big chunk of my SP index fund in summer of 2008 to make a separate loan that's worked out well.

SamIAm38

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #70 on: June 30, 2016, 03:40:05 PM »
Bought TSLA in the 20's, sold on the way up to the 40's that year, solid gains. I had 10k in, could have turned into 100k if I held. That's something I really appreciate about the index funds, takes a lot of the emotions and shoulda couldas out of investing.

hodedofome

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Market timing wins
« Reply #71 on: June 30, 2016, 08:24:27 PM »
Everyone bought CPXX at $1.25 in February of this year and sold it at $30 when it got bought out right? Yeah me neither.

I bought PWAV or something like that at the end of '08 for $0.50. It quickly went down to $0.25. Think I bought $100 worth. Then I sold it at $4.50 end of 2009 or beginning of 2010. I only sold because it stopped going up every day like it had been doing earlier. I was lucky cause I think they are out of business.

My grandpa has stocks worth probably millions in 2000. He was going on a trip around the world and didn't want to be checking his stocks during that time. He sold everything in the first quarter of 2000 and returned when everything went to crap. He decided he'd wait it out and bought a bunch of energy stocks near the bottom of the bear market. It's better to be lucky than good! In '08 he wasn't so lucky and just stopped looking at his statements for a few years. He did buy some BAC near the bottom though.

forestj

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #72 on: June 30, 2016, 09:18:30 PM »
bitcoin. Nuff said.

Livewell

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #73 on: June 30, 2016, 10:22:09 PM »
In 1998 I knew a guy at the gym who offered me 100 shares of his soon to be IPO company, can't recall the name.  I didn't really know him but he said he had these friends and family shares and didn't know many folks (sad).  I was in my mid 20s so why not?  That $1400 turned into $22K in three months...(that's $14 a share to $220). Wow I thought I was hot shit, and so smart for selling.

Two months after that I got another hot tip.  Mediaplex was its name, some kind of random technology involved in browser ad delivery.  Hey it was the late 90s in Silicon Valley, can't lose right? Rode that one down to $1...lost all my big winnings. 

The poor guy who gave me the f&f really had it bad, he actioned his options without selling and took the double whammy of losing the stock value and still having a huge tax bill.  I felt pretty lucky to have learned the lesson without losing much principle.

I wish I could say I started right away on index funds after that, but that took a while longer for me to clue into.   

talltexan

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #74 on: July 01, 2016, 06:23:40 AM »
I'm continuing to play with fire by owning employer's stock in teh 401(k). Working for a Utility company really rewarded me this past week with the Brexit kicking everything BUT utilities for 2 days.

acroy

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #75 on: July 01, 2016, 06:40:48 AM »
Buying the house! Oct 2009.
Houses don't go 'on sale' in TX very often, pretty stable.
Paid 175, now worth 240-250
Of course I've not sold it, so 'unrealized' gain.

boarder42

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #76 on: July 01, 2016, 06:47:51 AM »
bought my house in 08 for 201k sold it for 240k this year.  considering it didnt actually cost 201k to buy it since it was mortgage at 3% with only 5% down and no PMI... it was around a 120% ROI ... then bought our new house for around 430k this year its estimated around 520k right now based on the market ... a unique situation that lead to a great deal.

Greenpez

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #77 on: July 01, 2016, 07:01:31 AM »
I'm continuing to play with fire by owning employer's stock in teh 401(k). Working for a Utility company really rewarded me this past week with the Brexit kicking everything BUT utilities for 2 days.

 similar for me, but i moved half what i had in company stock to the broad market after brexit and two days later moved it back after it went up 6.5 % :) company stock had also gone up a decent amount tho, so prolly only a ~2% diff on the funds :P

StockBeard

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #78 on: July 05, 2016, 05:22:28 PM »
In 2008 I "knew" shares for a company would rise.
[...]
And I had insider information...
Wait, wouldn't that purchase have been illegal in such circumstances? Not that I understand the implication, but it seems like it's better for you and the person who tipped you that you stayed away?

mrpercentage

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #79 on: July 05, 2016, 05:44:33 PM »
Well, I just went to cash in my 457. Part of that is a huge deposit is coming. But its cash right now. All of it.

Seppia

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #80 on: July 06, 2016, 01:08:38 AM »
Seems like a great idea

boarder42

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #81 on: July 06, 2016, 05:30:12 AM »
now would be a good time to market time a refinance to a new 30 year extremely low fixed rate.  my broker that does no costs is at 3.25% and its dropping.

DrF

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #82 on: July 07, 2016, 09:43:23 AM »
Sold some bonds the 2nd day of Brexit and put them into a leveraged index fund. Just sold this morning for ~16% increase. Put the money back into the bond fund.

Also, about to buy a house. If one would just come on the market in our ideal location location location. Then we'd take advantage of the sweet sweet low interest rates for the next 30 years.

frugalnacho

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #83 on: July 08, 2016, 11:31:58 AM »
Bought house in 2009 for $67k.  Currently valued around $130k
Bought house in 2010 for $93k.  Currently valued around $155k

TreeTired

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #84 on: July 09, 2016, 03:59:44 PM »
Accidental good timing?   We sold our very expensive home in New Jersey, closed in June 2008. 1/4 of the proceeds went to our current home in NC.   I held the substantial remaining balance in cash,  was so worried about the financial system at the time kept under FDIC maximum at banks and moved my money market mutual fund cash to a US Treasury money market fund (Before the Fed guaranteed all of them).   This let me weather the downturn and I very slowly started buying stocks in 2009 and 2010.   Didn't go all-in, didn't buy the lows, but accidentaly going to cash at the highs was very lucky.

beastykato

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #85 on: July 09, 2016, 07:02:02 PM »
I definitely think that timing the market wins.  My 401k pretty much tracks the S&P500 with a little bit of bonds (~5%) mixed in and everything I put in goes straight into the S&P fund.  However, my employer pays me $1.45/hr into my 401k and that gets put into my 401k as cash. 

That cash just sits there until I see an opportunity.  So, after brexit happened I went and moved that money in the next day (~2000).   And thus far it's worked perfectly.  I had been anywhere from -5% return to +4% this year and ever since I moved that money into my 401 my return is now sitting at 6.5% and was definitely aided by the extra capital put in at the lower price point. 

I don't have graphs to prove it's better than if I have just moved that money into the market consistently instead of timing it, but my return number sure jumps every time I buy on a dip and I'm averaging 10.65% overall in my 401k which is higher than the 7% average number I see thrown around a lot.

Davids

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #86 on: July 10, 2016, 11:50:23 AM »
Pretty much anyone who in the past year did some buying late August 2015, late September 2015, mid Feb 2016 and even 2 weeks ago on 6/27 should be enjoying their rewards.

boarder42

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #87 on: July 10, 2016, 03:19:13 PM »
I definitely think that timing the market wins.  My 401k pretty much tracks the S&P500 with a little bit of bonds (~5%) mixed in and everything I put in goes straight into the S&P fund.  However, my employer pays me $1.45/hr into my 401k and that gets put into my 401k as cash. 

That cash just sits there until I see an opportunity.  So, after brexit happened I went and moved that money in the next day (~2000).   And thus far it's worked perfectly.  I had been anywhere from -5% return to +4% this year and ever since I moved that money into my 401 my return is now sitting at 6.5% and was definitely aided by the extra capital put in at the lower price point. 

I don't have graphs to prove it's better than if I have just moved that money into the market consistently instead of timing it, but my return number sure jumps every time I buy on a dip and I'm averaging 10.65% overall in my 401k which is higher than the 7% average number I see thrown around a lot.

7% is the inflation adjusted number people  use. You're likely losing vs someone who just puts everything into the market gradually throughout the year.

Classical_Liberal

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #88 on: July 10, 2016, 06:32:26 PM »
Pretty much anyone who in the past year did some buying late August 2015, late September 2015, mid Feb 2016 and even 2 weeks ago on 6/27 should be enjoying their rewards.

I normally keep 1 year of expenses in cash as an Efund (i know, stupid right), but thanks to those three dips it's down to 1K, the minimum I need to keep my 1% rate.  They have come in too quick succession for me to replenish the account.  At least my Efund money has seen near 20% ROI in the last 12 months :)  Gains will not be realized though... unless I have an emergency, knock on wood.

beastykato

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #89 on: July 11, 2016, 10:28:28 AM »

7% is the inflation adjusted number people  use. You're likely losing vs someone who just puts everything into the market gradually throughout the year.

I am not discounting your statement, however, I just don't believe it's true.  I compare against fellow employees openly very often and we almost make a game out of competing to see who's allocation is doing better.  One guy has been 1% ahead of me all year.  He is more conservative than I am and during the early downturn this year he gained an edge vs my 90+% stock portfolio.  After this purchase I made my return leapfrogged his and I'm now 1% ahead.

I know for a fact if I had bought earlier this year I wouldn't have been able to pass him like that.  The opportunity that presented itself and allowed me to purchase cheaper is what allowed me to pass him. 

I'm not advocating doing this with your entire 401k, but leaving some money on the side to take advantage of opportunities for easy capital gains seems like common sense and a no brainier to me.  I can't argue with my total return of 10%+. None of my fellow employees have a overall return that high with  any of their allocations and many have contributed religiously for decades.

frugalnacho

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #90 on: July 11, 2016, 11:43:38 AM »
I'm not advocating doing this with your entire 401k, but leaving some money on the side to take advantage of opportunities for easy capital gains seems like common sense and a no brainier to me. 

You got lucky. Statistically the best thing to do is invest immediately when you receive the money.  You may get lucky again and be able to purchase a bunch of stock on the cheap, but what is more likely is that you will be able to buy less stock than you otherwise would own had you just purchased immediately. 

beastykato

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #91 on: July 11, 2016, 04:50:53 PM »
That's definitely possible, like I said I'm not discounting any advice.  It's not been my experience though.  I've only been investing for 7 years and maybe it's just the recent market volatility, but it seems like every few months the market takes a dip that is easy to take advantage of.   The first opportunity I used this year was the interest rate hike, no-brainer there that the market would react and then brexit was also a no-brainer.   After brexit hit Friday you knew for sure Monday would be a big sell off.  I'm just playing off human nature I don't think it was luck at all.  I made a conscious decision based off what I saw happening in the market. 

boarder42

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #92 on: July 11, 2016, 05:18:08 PM »
That's definitely possible, like I said I'm not discounting any advice.  It's not been my experience though.  I've only been investing for 7 years and maybe it's just the recent market volatility, but it seems like every few months the market takes a dip that is easy to take advantage of.   The first opportunity I used this year was the interest rate hike, no-brainer there that the market would react and then brexit was also a no-brainer.   After brexit hit Friday you knew for sure Monday would be a big sell off.  I'm just playing off human nature I don't think it was luck at all.  I made a conscious decision based off what I saw happening in the market.

So your basis for your claim is 7 years of blinded data in which you were only up 10.65% annually on avg when in the last 7 years the market has averaged more than that.  Doesn't seem like what you're doing is working. While waiting for the 2 day brexit dip how much of the Feb run up did your money miss. It's dumb luck if you ever beat the market. That's the point of this thread more as a joke. If you notice many post people are using very small percentages of their portfolio or play money. Or the trades were before they got smart

beastykato

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #93 on: July 11, 2016, 05:54:20 PM »
The 10% on Merrill Lynch only goes up to 24 months.   And I've been in a low expense ratio sp500 fund the whole time so I've tracked the market almost exactly.  I seriously doubt the few thousand I had on the sideline made that big a difference over my 7 year period.  There is no need to be condescending.

 So, I made what the market made.  Fact is over the term against people with the same funds my account I'm ahead.  I'm sorry you take offense to that.  I said I didn't discount any advice given but it was not my experience.  And well...I'm still right.  If you have money sitting....as many people do in savings or like me as extra company money it's foolish to not buy "timed" dips that are blatantly obvious.

boarder42

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #94 on: July 11, 2016, 06:03:33 PM »
The 10% on Merrill Lynch only goes up to 24 months.   And I've been in a low expense ratio sp500 fund the whole time so I've tracked the market almost exactly.  I seriously doubt the few thousand I had on the sideline made that big a difference over my 7 year period.  There is no need to be condescending.

 So, I made what the market made.  Fact is over the term against people with the same funds my account I'm ahead.  I'm sorry you take offense to that.  I said I didn't discount any advice given but it was not my experience.  And well...I'm still right.  If you have money sitting....as many people do in savings or like me as extra company money it's foolish to not buy "timed" dips that are blatantly obvious.

The foolishness is to leave the money sitting.

PhysicianOnFIRE

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #95 on: July 11, 2016, 06:33:16 PM »
I tax loss harvested the Monday after the Brexit vote, which turned out to be the nadir in the US and international markets. Back to all-time highs.

I timed it right and got lucky. It's hard not to be timing in some fashion if you are investing.

Best,
-PoF

Tester

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #96 on: July 11, 2016, 06:43:29 PM »
In 2008 I "knew" shares for a company would rise.
[...]
And I had insider information...
Wait, wouldn't that purchase have been illegal in such circumstances? Not that I understand the implication, but it seems like it's better for you and the person who tipped you that you stayed away?

I was working for that company - and I am still working.
And by insider information it meant I had access to tools which showed the sales, plus tools which could be used to understand what teams were experimenting.
And by seeing the sales it was clear to me that the shares would rise. I did not have information about mergers or acquisitions...
I discussed with my wife and of course I would have contacted the legal department to ask if I am allowed to buy, as I am also not allowed to sell at any moment anyway, I am only allowed to sell in some months, after the financial results are posted.
But as we decided to not do it I did not have to contact the legal department in the end :).

beastykato

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #97 on: July 11, 2016, 08:02:33 PM »
Sigh....sorry but I'll never agree.  You should always have some liquid cash available for opportunities.  I'm not saying your wrong in absolute returns when you have tunnel vision on one particular fund/index, but it neglects the opportunity to profit elsewhere.   

If I hadn't kept money on the sidelines I couldn't have bought silver funds (up over 100% btw), or the easy pickings I took on oil companies when the price crashed (I purchased shell, BP, and Exxon) which has also crushed the market returns.  Gun stocks are another good example.  Everytime the president comes out with an anti gun speech I buy gun stocks and dump them shortly after.   Is all of this stuff luck?  My personal stock portfolio is up 16% over the past year which I also know is crushing the market. 

frugalnacho

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #98 on: July 11, 2016, 09:42:49 PM »
Sigh....sorry but I'll never agree.  You should always have some liquid cash available for opportunities.  I'm not saying your wrong in absolute returns when you have tunnel vision on one particular fund/index, but it neglects the opportunity to profit elsewhere.   

If I hadn't kept money on the sidelines I couldn't have bought silver funds (up over 100% btw), or the easy pickings I took on oil companies when the price crashed (I purchased shell, BP, and Exxon) which has also crushed the market returns.  Gun stocks are another good example.  Everytime the president comes out with an anti gun speech I buy gun stocks and dump them shortly after.   Is all of this stuff luck?  My personal stock portfolio is up 16% over the past year which I also know is crushing the market.

Some of it is luck, some of it is obvious, but the point everyone is making is that while some of the time it's easy to spot the value and buy low, by keeping money on the sidelines waiting for those deals you have necessarily paid an opportunity cost in the form of missing the run ups.  Your data set is way to small; it's only you.  If you look at everyone in aggregate the answer is clear: invest as soon as you have the money and you will end up with more money.

boarder42

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #99 on: July 12, 2016, 06:13:33 AM »
Sigh....sorry but I'll never agree.  You should always have some liquid cash available for opportunities.  I'm not saying your wrong in absolute returns when you have tunnel vision on one particular fund/index, but it neglects the opportunity to profit elsewhere.   

If I hadn't kept money on the sidelines I couldn't have bought silver funds (up over 100% btw), or the easy pickings I took on oil companies when the price crashed (I purchased shell, BP, and Exxon) which has also crushed the market returns.  Gun stocks are another good example.  Everytime the president comes out with an anti gun speech I buy gun stocks and dump them shortly after.   Is all of this stuff luck?  My personal stock portfolio is up 16% over the past year which I also know is crushing the market.

Some of it is luck, some of it is obvious, but the point everyone is making is that while some of the time it's easy to spot the value and buy low, by keeping money on the sidelines waiting for those deals you have necessarily paid an opportunity cost in the form of missing the run ups.  Your data set is way to small; it's only you.  If you look at everyone in aggregate the answer is clear: invest as soon as you have the money and you will end up with more money.

yep you're just getting lucky.  maybe you will forever and congrats on that but its a losing strategy in long term investing we currently have a volatile market where you are getting lucky.  if your strategy worked so well all the great finance minds would be writing about it and investing money in this manner.  the smartest investor of generations(warren buffett) even says that if you're not him you should just put your money in an index fund.  i'd be interested to see how your sidelining of monies worked waiting for a down fall in the 2013 run up b/c based on your amazing timing you likely would have kept thousands sidelined waiting for that drop while we all sat and made 30%+