Author Topic: Market timing wins  (Read 32570 times)

sol

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Market timing wins
« on: June 07, 2016, 04:28:13 PM »
Trying to time the market is a rookie investor mistake, but sometimes it happens by accident.  Please share your most fortuitous timing wins.

Tis on my mind because I was buying a little vde on the side during the oil crash.  My best purchase was an intraday low on Jan 25 for $68.76, which today is up to $97.19.  I made a 42% return in only 4.5 months!  I'm rich!  Let's see, that works out to... $28.43 in profit on my 1 share purchased that day.  Well shit.

Anybody else?

protostache

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2016, 04:37:25 PM »
RDS.B bought at $37.18 on January 21st, up 40.17%. Shell is extremely volatile, though, so I hold little hope it'll maintain that level for any length of time.

Paul der Krake

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2016, 04:54:24 PM »
I bought two shares of AAPL when they dropped 40% to $450 in June 2013. I didn't know much about investing or valuing businesses, but the P/E was pretty low and they had enormous cash reserves. YOLO.

It's up 50% now, not including dividends received since. But at one point I had an unrealized 100% return!

Expecting a call from Berkshire any day now.

Captain Cactus

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2016, 05:10:25 PM »
ISRG was always a lot of fun.  The share price would predictably go way up every quarter, and after the quarter ended it would drop in price a great deal.  Not sure if it's still doing that, but for awhile there it was.  Buy when it plummets, wait 'til the end of quarter and sell, then buy again when low.
:)



 

JetBlast

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2016, 05:48:05 PM »
Saw a smaller mid cap with what looked like a cheap bet against the herd. There were reports of a tax dispute over some accounting with a foreign government, which a short hedge fund blew up into accounting irregularities that would be the next Enron.  Calls were dirt cheap while puts were very pricey. Huge short interest in the stock and it was trading in a narrow band with low volatility which made options even cheaper.

I took some fun money and bought some calls with expiration five months in the future, which would hopefully be long enough for the accounting to be figured out. Worst case I lost my fun money. Best case I gained probably 500%. Well, two days later the stock broke out the top of the channe it was trading in for months, shorts panicked, and I sold out in the ensuing short squeeze for a quick 200% gain.

Dumb luck. Company eventually got a takeover bid and I would have made only 40%.

brotatochip

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2016, 08:07:42 PM »
I've been riding the VDE train since early February.  I'm glad I decided to long this EFF when I purchased...crazy gainz so far brahs 👊👊

capitalninja

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2016, 08:32:36 PM »
Initiated a 200 share position in NS on 1/15/2016 and I'm currently up $4,251.91 for a 61.3% return and still going.

I added to my OKE position and it's up 37% since mid January.

I wouldn't call the buys market timing as much as realizing that the price  of oil simply could not stay in the 20s long term. I didn't think that the recovery would happen so quickly, but the knowing what it costs the major players to pump a barrel of oil, I knew that international game of chicken that they were playing wouldn't last more than 6 - 12 months. There's simply too much money involved.


Cromacster

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2016, 08:33:05 PM »
CLF, I purchased some shares around $2 three months ago, current price is around $5.  Only purchased 50 shares, so not quite ready to quit yet.

dragoncar

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2016, 08:54:48 PM »
I sold all my stocks in early 2008, basically at the top.  Great timing, eh?

Of course, I didn't buy back in until 2011, missing the 2009-2011 runup.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2016, 11:21:31 PM »
I waited for a dip in the market and invested some when it happened.  But looking back, the problem is how much would that money have made if it wasn't waiting in cash?  Beating the market is also about viewing your extra cash as a lost opportunity.

k9

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2016, 06:50:39 AM »
I was pretty much 100% in gold and silver up to mid-2011. Stock markets crashed, gold and especially silver were skyrocketting. It made me nervous. I went half-gold, half-stocks at this very moment. I had acquired a part of this gold & silver below market value, and dumped some gold and all my silver almost at the top, buying cheap stocks instead. I almost doubled my net worth this year. Pure luck, though, but you bet I learned the values of diversification and rebalancing.

forummm

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2016, 07:59:46 AM »
I bought a cheap foreclosure at the bottom of the market. Haven't sold it yet, but would make a lot. I also refinanced it shortly after the purchase and rehabbing a bit, and got an insanely high appraisal. So I did a cashout refi and bought VFIAX with it. The VFIAX gains on that cashed out portion ended up being 50% of the original purchase price. Too bad my house cost under $100k and not several million :)

I think 2 years ago on January 2 when I make my annual Roth contribution, the market was down that day, which is good because I get the COB price. I remember that because it seems to me that the opposite is usually true and I always get irritated that I'm buying 1% fewer shares than if I could have contributed the prior market day.

Sometimes the market goes down on Friday when my autoinvesting occurs. But it probably goes up more frequently than it goes down.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2016, 08:47:02 AM »
I purchased MGT @ $.25/share a few months ago, it popped up to $5/share a few weeks ago!

I only dumped about $100k of my portfolio into it (50% of total portfolio). I should have listened to McAfee over dinner when he told me he was going to become chairman and CEO.

Hindsite is 20/20, especially when you are dreaming!

Kaspian

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2016, 08:55:26 AM »
In the few years pre-2008, I was almost solely invested in Canadian "real return bonds".  When the markets tanked the bonds shot up in value 17%!   Around the same time I began reading about couch potato index investing and diversification, so I began that strategy and (luckily) bought all the different equity indexes at lows.  And as we know, those recovered well.  It wasn't intentional timing on my part though and when I tell people the bulk of my stash is due primarily to bonds they look at me like I have three heads.  :)


2Birds1Stone

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2016, 09:11:06 AM »
I was pretty much 100% in gold and silver up to mid-2011. Stock markets crashed, gold and especially silver were skyrocketting. It made me nervous. I went half-gold, half-stocks at this very moment. I had acquired a part of this gold & silver below market value, and dumped some gold and all my silver almost at the top, buying cheap stocks instead. I almost doubled my net worth this year. Pure luck, though, but you bet I learned the values of diversification and rebalancing.

Awesome! I dumped 80% of my net work into gold and silver back in 2013.......you can imagine the rest of that story.

Rightflyer

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2016, 09:17:54 AM »
Is this for real? (or trolling.)

I purchased MGT @ $.25/share a few months ago, it popped up to $5/share a few weeks ago!

I only dumped about $100k of my portfolio into it (50% of total portfolio). I should have listened to McAfee over dinner when he told me he was going to become chairman and CEO.

Hindsite is 20/20, especially when you are dreaming!

With This Herring

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2016, 09:33:38 AM »
Is this for real? (or trolling.)

I purchased MGT @ $.25/share a few months ago, it popped up to $5/share a few weeks ago!

I only dumped about $100k of my portfolio into it (50% of total portfolio). I should have listened to McAfee over dinner when he told me he was going to become chairman and CEO.

Hindsite is 20/20, especially when you are dreaming!

I think 2Birds1Stone is jokingly saying "Oh, I made so much money! ...but not really, because I cannot see the future."
I don't think 2Birds would plunge 50% of his portfolio into a penny stock.  I also think he probably doesn't know famous McAfee security software creator/founder John McAfee well enough to have a casual supper with him.

[Edited to fix duplicate word.]
« Last Edit: June 08, 2016, 10:07:51 AM by With This Herring »

talltexan

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2016, 09:40:28 AM »
My big fear with stock picking is that a stock comes to my attention because it's in the news, which means there's already a lot of hype driving the stock higher. I'm considering experimenting with arbitrarily-random lists of stocks, such as all of the single-letter call symbol stocks to try to break free of this.

robartsd

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2016, 10:18:30 AM »
which means there's already a lot of hype driving the stock higher
Or lower if the news is bad. In the case where the stock is in the news, the investing opportunity is determining if the hype is bunk - if it is, you invest by doing the opposite of what the herd is doing (see JetBlast's post). I suppose if you simply want to gamble in the market timing game, you could just choose some random stocks to do it with. This thread is more about people looking for undervalued companies to buy and hold who happen to catch one just before a good run up in value.

sol

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2016, 10:57:29 AM »
Is this for real? (or trolling.)

I would love to be corrected, but I'm pretty sure a story about turning 100k into 2 million dollars with a single bet would have come out before now.

ketchup

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2016, 11:02:59 AM »
My big fear with stock picking is that a stock comes to my attention because it's in the news, which means there's already a lot of hype driving the stock higher. I'm considering experimenting with arbitrarily-random lists of stocks, such as all of the single-letter call symbol stocks to try to break free of this.
Two economists are walking down the street.  One says to the other, "Hey, is that a $20 bill stuck to the sidewalk?"  The other says, "Nah, can't be.  Someone would have already picked it up."

I bought a small cheap house (now a rental property and nearly paid off) at the bottom of the market in 2012, and a relative gas guzzler second car (20MPG highway) for cheap right before gas prices fell in 2014.  Both were more luck than planning.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2016, 11:14:52 AM »
Is this for real? (or trolling.)

I would love to be corrected, but I'm pretty sure a story about turning 100k into 2 million dollars with a single bet would have come out before now.

I was totally joking, I figured the "hindsight is always 20/20, especially when you are dreaming" remark would have been a dead giveaway lol!

onlykelsey

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2016, 11:16:06 AM »
More of a foreign currency market thing, but I inadvertently made all sorts of money when the ruble fell while I was working in Russia (where I traveled with chunks of cash strapped to my body).

forummm

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2016, 11:22:49 AM »
More of a foreign currency market thing, but I inadvertently made all sorts of money when the ruble fell while I was working in Russia (where I traveled with chunks of cash strapped to my body).

Some of my friends work in developing countries and arrive with 3000 $1 bills strapped to them (they have to pay workers and contractors and such--not just living expenses). That's a lot of bulk.

Heckler

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2016, 01:59:47 PM »
I became mortgage free at the bottom of the oil crash and maxed out my TFSA with the extra money, plus bonuses and tax refunds.  Thats turned out well!   Canadian economy was in the pits, oil crash, forest fires, etc.  buy! Buy! Buy!  Im up 8.7% over the 2016 TFSA maximun contribution limit.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2016, 02:03:25 PM by Heckler »

onlykelsey

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #25 on: June 08, 2016, 02:14:54 PM »
More of a foreign currency market thing, but I inadvertently made all sorts of money when the ruble fell while I was working in Russia (where I traveled with chunks of cash strapped to my body).

Some of my friends work in developing countries and arrive with 3000 $1 bills strapped to them (they have to pay workers and contractors and such--not just living expenses). That's a lot of bulk.

I wouldn't hesitate to call most of Russia a developing country, but Moscow also has an obscene cost of living, which is a weird/unfortunate combo.  Moscow businesses were just starting to accept Euros in addition to dollars and pounds for big payments, I found I couldn't pay for much of anything in rubles (obviously groceries, clothing, etc was fine).

acroy

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #26 on: June 08, 2016, 02:21:15 PM »
Bought WDC based on value analysis at just over $35
Up about 40% in a couple months! almost $50
I would not buy it at this price - time to sell I guess ;)

Mr. Green

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #27 on: June 08, 2016, 02:22:03 PM »
I sold all my stocks in early 2008, basically at the top.  Great timing, eh?

Of course, I didn't buy back in until 2011, missing the 2009-2011 runup.
Ditto, only I bought back in in early '09. I missed a little bit of the bounce but caught most of it.

dandarc

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #28 on: June 08, 2016, 02:24:03 PM »
Exercised some insignificant stock options in 2011 at just about the most-recent high of that company - they vested and happened to be in-the-money at just about the same time.  Woohoo for $97 (total, before tax)!

Co-worker decided to wait, and the options quickly went down and haven't sniffed the strike-price since.  We no longer work there - contract wound up with a different middle-man and so did we.

mrpercentage

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #29 on: June 08, 2016, 05:52:24 PM »
On May 16th I bought Apple at $92.77 because of Berkshire news. I sold it May 31st for $99.86. A two week 7.6% gain was irresistible. Sorry Cramer, I traded Apple. Wouldnt have been possible without Robinhood instant. Thanks Robinhood!

protostache

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #30 on: June 08, 2016, 06:25:06 PM »
On May 16th I bought Apple at $92.77 because of Berkshire news. I sold it May 31st for $99.86. A two week 7.6% gain was irresistible. Sorry Cramer, I traded Apple. Wouldnt have been possible without Robinhood instant. Thanks Robinhood!

Why's that?

mrpercentage

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #31 on: June 08, 2016, 07:18:03 PM »
On May 16th I bought Apple at $92.77 because of Berkshire news. I sold it May 31st for $99.86. A two week 7.6% gain was irresistible. Sorry Cramer, I traded Apple. Wouldnt have been possible without Robinhood instant. Thanks Robinhood!

Why's that?

Because I didn't have the money in my Robinhood account. They upgraded my account to instant a couple of months ago. So when I transferred money at opening bell on May 16th I was allowed to buy immediately without waiting for funds to clear. Thats why.

PhysicianOnFIRE

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #32 on: June 08, 2016, 08:14:45 PM »
Trying to time the market is a rookie investor mistake, but sometimes it happens by accident.  Please share your most fortuitous timing wins.

Tis on my mind because I was buying a little vde on the side during the oil crash.  My best purchase was an intraday low on Jan 25 for $68.76, which today is up to $97.19.  I made a 42% return in only 4.5 months!  I'm rich!  Let's see, that works out to... $28.43 in profit on my 1 share purchased that day.  Well shit.

Anybody else?

Have you sold VDE at the current value to lock in your gain?  Successful timing requires two discreet events: getting in and getting out. Getting in low is a good get, but you've got to sell high to realize the victory.

Radagast

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #33 on: June 08, 2016, 08:16:22 PM »
After a year or so of contemplation, and reading the likes of Bill Bernstein, I decided to move 8.3% of my tax sheltered accounts to a gold miner stock ETF in October as a permanent addition to my allocation*. I have not been making much in the way of ongoing contributions to it though, because it is mostly taking care of itself.

*Of course, if it gets too high I may reduce it to 5%.

Livewell

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #34 on: June 08, 2016, 08:51:39 PM »
I went to 100% cash by March 2007.   I saw a lot of things I didn't like and got out at a great time.

I wasn't all the way back into the market until mid 2013, and missed out on a lot of gains. 

I made a lot more money in my job over that time, and saved and invested it in index funds.  I stopped thinking and investing in individual stocks.

It's been a fortunate learning experience - I had some good instincts but ultimately made my own luck by focusing on what I could influence.

mrpercentage

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #35 on: June 08, 2016, 09:26:21 PM »
I went to 100% cash by March 2007.   I saw a lot of things I didn't like and got out at a great time.

I wasn't all the way back into the market until mid 2013, and missed out on a lot of gains. 

I made a lot more money in my job over that time, and saved and invested it in index funds.  I stopped thinking and investing in individual stocks.

It's been a fortunate learning experience - I had some good instincts but ultimately made my own luck by focusing on what I could influence.

I moved my mid caps to bonds. Now Im mostly total bond index with some small caps. I will let the small caps run. Im just waiting for a correction. I don't expect 2008. I would like a 10% drop. I think there is a good chance even if its temporary before the end of summer. Thats about as far as I will go with predictions. Its a falcon 9. I expect the first stage to return to earth but not crash.

BFGirl

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #36 on: June 09, 2016, 09:43:56 AM »
I bought JPM in 2002 and have an 82% unrealized gain.

shotgunwilly

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #37 on: June 09, 2016, 10:23:34 AM »
I moved my mid caps to bonds. Now Im mostly total bond index with some small caps. I will let the small caps run. Im just waiting for a correction. I don't expect 2008. I would like a 10% drop. I think there is a good chance even if its temporary before the end of summer. Thats about as far as I will go with predictions. Its a falcon 9. I expect the first stage to return to earth but not crash.

-_-

SMH.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #38 on: June 09, 2016, 10:50:42 AM »
I moved my mid caps to bonds. Now Im mostly total bond index with some small caps. I will let the small caps run. Im just waiting for a correction. I don't expect 2008. I would like a 10% drop. I think there is a good chance even if its temporary before the end of summer. Thats about as far as I will go with predictions. Its a falcon 9. I expect the first stage to return to earth but not crash.

-_-

SMH.

The last time this was predicted with had a health 5%+ increase in the markets over the following months. I wouldn't hold my breathe unless I had a crystal ball.

forummm

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #39 on: June 09, 2016, 11:43:38 AM »
I bought JPM in 2002 and have an 82% unrealized gain.

Is that a market timing win? Depending on when in 2002, the S&P500 is up 150% since that time.

Greenpez

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #40 on: June 09, 2016, 01:53:59 PM »
i moved a significant portion of my 401k to jnj in april at ~112 and it just crossed 117 today

matchewed

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #41 on: June 09, 2016, 02:16:41 PM »
2009 GE purchase at 8.90/share for 125 shares. My total gain on it is nearly 240%. I was not in the "index funds are awesome" crowd at the time.  So timing? Not sure. But I did put in more than I had been putting in to my account in the past.

Full_Beard

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #42 on: June 09, 2016, 06:03:09 PM »
Left one job in 2006 and took a year off. Began next job in August 2007 and started TSP contributions then. By happenstance, I began the process of rolling over my 401k from my previous job into my TSP at the end of the summer in 2008, so I happened to sell everything around August and then bought new funds in November 2008, avoiding the biggest part of that market drop by sheer luck.

mrpercentage

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #43 on: June 09, 2016, 10:07:46 PM »
Timing my 457b is working out. It just updated.

 

aperture

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #44 on: June 09, 2016, 10:15:30 PM »
I was just learning about investing last year and had our savings in Vanguard total US stock index and in Total US bond index and was reading about appropriate ratios. In August of 2015, I moved half of all my assets to the total Bond Market just before stocks tanked.  A few weeks later I realized that I should not be so much in the bonds and since the stock market fell in the mean time, I shifted 30% back to stocks. It was a total Forrest Gump move that netted us around 8% gain on the money that went from stocks to bonds and back to stocks.
 
Now I just leave it all alone and only throw more on the pile. -Ap

Proud Foot

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #45 on: June 10, 2016, 08:56:27 AM »
I bought some DVN at $20 in February.

dandarc

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #46 on: June 13, 2016, 09:31:34 AM »
Anyone happen to buy LNKD Friday?

nawhite

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #47 on: June 13, 2016, 03:17:22 PM »
I bought a house in Denver in mid 2011 for $220k with a mortgage at 3.75%. The Denver market has been going crazy for the past 2 years and I could sell today for $310k easy. We're hanging on to it as a rental so far, but will probably liquidate it next year if we don't decide to move back in. I'm not convinced job growth is keeping up with housing growth.

talltexan

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #48 on: June 15, 2016, 07:18:05 AM »
My wife works for General Electric. In October 2015, she was offered a 5% premium to convert the GE stock in her 401(k) to shares of their credit spin-off Synchrony Financial. This meant that she and I got to be part of the greatest one-day drop in a publicly traded company yesterday when SYF fell 15% in one day. Perhaps I've got the wrong thread?

Cromacster

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Re: Market timing wins
« Reply #49 on: June 15, 2016, 09:41:01 AM »
This meant that she and I got to be part of the greatest one-day drop in a publicly traded company yesterday when SYF fell 15% in one day. Perhaps I've got the wrong thread?

Don't know about that...ENRON stock prices fell >20% in a day multiple days, with its greatest fall being 85% in a single day.  Or are you referring to another metric other than % change?