Author Topic: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016  (Read 15942 times)

Telecaster

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1707
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #50 on: February 23, 2018, 04:29:44 PM »
Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?


Yes.  At this point I will say that we will definitely not have a recession in 2016. 

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #51 on: February 23, 2018, 04:32:04 PM »
Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?


Yes.  At this point I will say that we will definitely not have a recession in 2016.

I'll do you one better, and predict no recession in 2017 either.

Telecaster

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1707
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #52 on: February 23, 2018, 04:35:55 PM »
Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?


Yes.  At this point I will say that we will definitely not have a recession in 2016.

I'll do you one better, and predict no recession in 2017 either.

Dude, you are going out on a limb. 

Eric

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4058
  • Location: On my bike
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #53 on: February 23, 2018, 06:17:43 PM »
Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8367
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #54 on: February 23, 2018, 06:45:10 PM »
Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

oh shit.  I also assumed it was bumped for mockery reasons, but now I'm reevaluating that perspective.

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1235
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #55 on: February 24, 2018, 10:41:54 AM »
I don't think we can make those assessments as these "indicators" were not revealed to us.

However, my secret toast rorschach test indicator confirms we will not have a recession in 2016 or 2017.

hodedofome

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1211
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Texas
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #56 on: February 24, 2018, 01:54:10 PM »
There was a little earnings recession from late 2014 to mid 2016 which is why stocks didnít go anywhere during that period.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9DHbv0yIa8Y/Wo7_mJ1WILI/AAAAAAAAJlI/3Hx-ZETRjV44DlVGUo11gMtB9oWYykcrwCLcBGAs/s1600/FIG1.gif

tyort1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2230
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #57 on: February 26, 2018, 09:53:19 AM »
Including one that has occurred in each of the last 10 recessions.

Much of the world is already in recession and this time we have $100T in debt across the planet to contend with.  Sometimes the market just wants to keep going up (easy example is the beginnings of the recession under Clinton in his last term in 1999-2000). 

The average recession sees the S&P go down by 37%.  It will be interesting how the Mustachian community weathers the next recession, whenever it comes. 

Staying disciplined, especially if you're a buy and holder, is extremely difficult in the face of losing 40% or more of your net worth.

No one can guarantee when the next recession comes, but we haven't seen this many indicators of one wince the 2007-2008 period which saw more than 50% in losses from peak to trough.

If you have powder dry, great opportunities may be coming.


ooeei

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1143
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #58 on: February 26, 2018, 11:09:54 AM »
The S&P 500 is currently at 2772. On Jan 3, 2016 when this was posted it was at 1922. It is currently up 44% from when this prediction was made.

If we drop 30% today you'll still have more money than you did on Jan 3, 2016, and buying back in if you went to cash will be more expensive than if you'd bought on Jan 3, 2016.

Just a few numbers I found interesting. This might be a good one to reference when the next doom and gloom warning post comes up.

retireatbirth

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 259
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #59 on: February 26, 2018, 11:54:08 AM »
We will in 2018 since the top is in.

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1426
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • hedonismbot
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #60 on: February 26, 2018, 07:57:14 PM »
Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

oh shit.  I also assumed it was bumped for mockery reasons, but now I'm reevaluating that perspective.
Either way I appreciate the bump. These old threads are hilarious.

ChpBstrd

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1305
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #61 on: February 27, 2018, 01:17:42 PM »
Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

oh shit.  I also assumed it was bumped for mockery reasons, but now I'm reevaluating that perspective.
Either way I appreciate the bump. These old threads are hilarious.
The MMM forum could be improved if we had a search / reporting feature specifically for recession / stock crash predictions. Even better if we could flag the specific rationale this time...e.g.

-debt
-valuations
-real estate
-derivatives
-foreign countries screwing up
-government shutdowns
-national debt
-politics
-Jim Cramer

Then we could run reports of all the times that same rationale has been used over the years.

Eric

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4058
  • Location: On my bike
Re: Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016
« Reply #62 on: February 27, 2018, 06:21:58 PM »
LOL - I love that Jim Cramer got his own category in your list.