Many indicators indicating a recession coming in 2016

[Telecaster]

Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Yes.  At this point I will say that we will definitely not have a recession in 2016. 

[sol]

Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Yes.  At this point I will say that we will definitely not have a recession in 2016.

I'll do you one better, and predict no recession in 2017 either.

[Telecaster]

Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Yes.  At this point I will say that we will definitely not have a recession in 2016.

I'll do you one better, and predict no recession in 2017 either.

Dude, you are going out on a limb. 

[Eric]

Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

[sol]

Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

oh shit.  I also assumed it was bumped for mockery reasons, but now I'm reevaluating that perspective.

[Abe]

I don't think we can make those assessments as these "indicators" were not revealed to us.

However, my secret toast rorschach test indicator confirms we will not have a recession in 2016 or 2017.

[hodedofome]

There was a little earnings recession from late 2014 to mid 2016 which is why stocks didn’t go anywhere during that period.

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9DHbv0yIa8Y/Wo7_mJ1WILI/AAAAAAAAJlI/3Hx-ZETRjV44DlVGUo11gMtB9oWYykcrwCLcBGAs/s1600/FIG1.gif

[Tyson]

Including one that has occurred in each of the last 10 recessions.

Much of the world is already in recession and this time we have $100T in debt across the planet to contend with.  Sometimes the market just wants to keep going up (easy example is the beginnings of the recession under Clinton in his last term in 1999-2000). 

The average recession sees the S&P go down by 37%.  It will be interesting how the Mustachian community weathers the next recession, whenever it comes. 

Staying disciplined, especially if you're a buy and holder, is extremely difficult in the face of losing 40% or more of your net worth.

No one can guarantee when the next recession comes, but we haven't seen this many indicators of one wince the 2007-2008 period which saw more than 50% in losses from peak to trough.

If you have powder dry, great opportunities may be coming.

[ooeei]

The S&P 500 is currently at 2772. On Jan 3, 2016 when this was posted it was at 1922. It is currently up 44% from when this prediction was made.

If we drop 30% today you'll still have more money than you did on Jan 3, 2016, and buying back in if you went to cash will be more expensive than if you'd bought on Jan 3, 2016.

Just a few numbers I found interesting. This might be a good one to reference when the next doom and gloom warning post comes up.

[retireatbirth]

We will in 2018 since the top is in.

[Radagast]

Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

oh shit.  I also assumed it was bumped for mockery reasons, but now I'm reevaluating that perspective.

Either way I appreciate the bump. These old threads are hilarious.

[ChpBstrd]

Are the indicators more or less apparent today more than 2 years later?

Wait.  You started this thread, and then you bumped it making fun of it?

oh shit.  I also assumed it was bumped for mockery reasons, but now I'm reevaluating that perspective.

Either way I appreciate the bump. These old threads are hilarious.

The MMM forum could be improved if we had a search / reporting feature specifically for recession / stock crash predictions. Even better if we could flag the specific rationale this time...e.g.

-debt
-valuations
-real estate
-derivatives
-foreign countries screwing up
-government shutdowns
-national debt
-politics
-Jim Cramer

Then we could run reports of all the times that same rationale has been used over the years.

[Eric]

LOL - I love that Jim Cramer got his own category in your list. 

[techwiz]

Another two years later.

[nereo]

Another two years later.

One of the most interesting things about this post is seeing how many previous forum members who commented two years ago are now gone - either by personal choice or because they were banned.

Top is in?

[FrugalSaver]

Wow. Loving the bumps

[Dicey]

Another two years later.

One of the most interesting things about this post is seeing how many previous forum members who commented two years ago are now gone - either by personal choice or because they were banned.

Top is in?

@sol's still the one I miss the most.

[nereo]

Yup.  But he's moved on to a better place.  A happy reality.