Author Topic: maizeman's trippy script  (Read 1428 times)

solon

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maizeman's trippy script
« on: April 20, 2017, 04:35:22 PM »
maizeman has created a FANTASTIC python script for modeling probabilities of various withdrawal rates.
see here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/post-fire/for-those-who-follow-the-4-rule/msg1438246/#msg1438246
and here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stop-worrying-about-the-4-rule/msg1508261/#msg1508261

In trying to run this script I ran across a few execution errors, and I thought it might be a good idea to have a place for us to hash them out. Might be especially useful for those of us who are *ahem* new to python.

If you know python, and if you have run maizeman's script, please chime in!

So, without further ado...

I got the script to run, but now I want to change the withdrawal rate and asset allocation. How do I do that?

mizzourah2006

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Re: maizeman's trippy script
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2017, 09:56:30 AM »
maizeman has created a FANTASTIC python script for modeling probabilities of various withdrawal rates.
see here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/post-fire/for-those-who-follow-the-4-rule/msg1438246/#msg1438246
and here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stop-worrying-about-the-4-rule/msg1508261/#msg1508261

In trying to run this script I ran across a few execution errors, and I thought it might be a good idea to have a place for us to hash them out. Might be especially useful for those of us who are *ahem* new to python.

If you know python, and if you have run maizeman's script, please chime in!

So, without further ado...

I got the script to run, but now I want to change the withdrawal rate and asset allocation. How do I do that?

Where is the script/code? Does he have a github for it or did I miss the link to it in the links you provided?

mizzourah2006

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Re: maizeman's trippy script
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2017, 10:19:28 AM »
Found it, it looks like those assumptions are being made in the broke_rates csv file, so you would need to go recreate that csv file given your changes.

maizeman

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Re: maizeman's trippy script
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2017, 06:44:47 PM »
Where is the script/code? Does he have a github for it or did I miss the link to it in the links you provided?

There is now. https://github.com/maizeman/dead_broke

@solon, I finally cleaned up the script used to make the "broke_rates.csv" file to the point where it should be useable, and it's posted on the github page as "make_broke_rate_file.py"

A couple of configurable variables at the top: starting portfolio size, and monthly spending (withdrawal).

Right now there is no ability to change the asset allocation but it wouldn't be impossibly difficult to just add in bonds. The bond data from shiller is being read in on lines 25-26, just need to fiddle with the code on lines 62/63, and decide how to handle re balancing.

maizeman

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Re: maizeman's trippy script
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2018, 07:28:19 PM »
I'm happy to report that thanks to @CCCA 's awesome programming chops, you no longer have to wade through my messy python code and its various dependencies, but can down generate much improved (and customizable based on age, sex, withdrawal rate and asset allocation) versions of the combined life expectancy and FIRE success graphs here:

http://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/


DreamFIRE

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Re: maizeman's trippy script
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2018, 08:39:19 PM »
At 2.6X BB FIRE expenses, current stash, and excluding SS benefits, it gives me a 92% chance of success to age 90.  Looks like SS isn't an option, but that would boost my success rate.