Author Topic: Lump sum & market timing fear  (Read 417 times)

RogerOS

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Lump sum & market timing fear
« on: March 11, 2020, 02:22:50 AM »
I have always lived frugally, but was unaware of the FIRE movement and investing until last summer. By that time I had saved 90k euros and decided to use my monthly savings towards a dollar cost averaging strategy and save the 90k for better purchasing conditions, such as the current conditions.

Currently I have about 20k in VWRL, 5k in P2P lending and 75k in cash. I would like to keep 25k in cash as an emergency fund and/or use towards purchasing an apartment to rent out. My take home is roughly 3k/month, living off 1k. FIRE goal is 550k, ~12 years away.

Basically I want to invest 50k, which would take me 2 years so save. Because this is such a big amount for me, I have unconsciously started timing the market. My dilemma:

VRWL is about 19% down from it's recent all time high, which seems like a fine time to buy more. But two scenarios seem reasonable:
- The economy will tank further due to corona, in which case waiting is optimal
- New QE will lead to a market recovery, in which case buying now is optimal

I know that in the long run time in the market > timing the market, but a 10% price difference in a lump sum scenario will have a huge compound effect years down the line. Any advice?

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3051
Re: Lump sum & market timing fear
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2020, 03:08:27 AM »
75% cash is a terrible allocation, but I can understand a fear of plunging into the market.

Could you stomach investing 10k/month?  That would take you 7+ months to invest.
Alternatively, with the recent market drops, you could invest 15k for a few months, then 10k/month.

I'd recommend taking a small chunk you are comfortable investing, and invest it.

vand

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1098
  • Location: UK
Re: Lump sum & market timing fear
« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2020, 03:49:27 AM »
If you are a passive investor then first decide on an asset allocation that if you won the lottery you would be happy to fully invest in tomorrow.. then go ahead and invest accordingly.

If you canít stomach putting in all your money at once into the allocation strategy that you are contemplating then it isnít the right allocation for you.