Author Topic: Looking for a market historian for a few questions...  (Read 2052 times)

PAstash

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Looking for a market historian for a few questions...
« on: January 25, 2017, 10:23:46 AM »
Not sure how to look this up historically. I was having trouble Googleing this.

When the U.S. federal government has expanded it's debt drastically in a short period of time say 4-8 years how has that effected the stock market? How has it effected global markets? How has it effected bond markets? in what time period has it effected the markets? did it effect them during that period or did it happen after?

What happened with Tbills?
How were small businesses effected?
how were international businesses effected?

Thanks much anyone who has the time to take a stab at these. Just doing a little research. Pretty please cite your work if possible. If you have a website to go to where i could look all this info up a reference would be much obliged.

Heckler

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Re: Looking for a market historian for a few questions...
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2017, 01:49:52 PM »
See table. Is this what youre looking for?

Mr Mark

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Re: Looking for a market historian for a few questions...
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2017, 12:29:50 AM »
PAstash,

The accountants at the US Federal Reserve regularly issues detailed accounts for the entire United States (every quarter). Check it out:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf

Fear not. Net worth of the U.S.A. as a whole (including Federal debt) is over $82 trillion (as of Q3 2016) and has been steadily rising since the Bush crash of '07/08. US Household's net worth was 66.5 trillion in 2007, fell to 56 trillion in 2008, and last year had reached an amazing $90 trillion.

I do hope you're not letting the distopian rantings of politicians, sham economists, entertainers and perveyors of #alternativefacts make you think we're going to hell in a hand cart. We simply aren't. (Perhaps they have an agenda they're pushing?)

Correlate away!

PAstash

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Re: Looking for a market historian for a few questions...
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2017, 10:01:06 PM »
PAstash,

The accountants at the US Federal Reserve regularly issues detailed accounts for the entire United States (every quarter). Check it out:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf

Fear not. Net worth of the U.S.A. as a whole (including Federal debt) is over $82 trillion (as of Q3 2016) and has been steadily rising since the Bush crash of '07/08. US Household's net worth was 66.5 trillion in 2007, fell to 56 trillion in 2008, and last year had reached an amazing $90 trillion.

I do hope you're not letting the distopian rantings of politicians, sham economists, entertainers and perveyors of #alternativefacts make you think we're going to hell in a hand cart. We simply aren't. (Perhaps they have an agenda they're pushing?)

Correlate away!

Course not just trying to predict the direction of the herd is all =) I know it's folly. I plan to one day... FAR into the future make an attempt at Value based investing once my indexes meet me FI goals. I've been practicing on paper.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Looking for a market historian for a few questions...
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2017, 09:39:36 AM »
Not sure how to look this up historically. I was having trouble Googleing this.

When the U.S. federal government has expanded it's debt drastically in a short period of time say 4-8 years how has that effected the stock market? How has it effected global markets? How has it effected bond markets? in what time period has it effected the markets? did it effect them during that period or did it happen after?

What happened with Tbills?
How were small businesses effected?
how were international businesses effected?

Thanks much anyone who has the time to take a stab at these. Just doing a little research. Pretty please cite your work if possible. If you have a website to go to where i could look all this info up a reference would be much obliged.

The federal government has been expanding it's debt and debt/GDP ratio since about 1980. All sorts of outcomes have occurred in the meantime:

T-bills paid pitiful returns the entire time.
The high inflation of the 1970s was subdued and never really came back.
Businesses enjoyed lower taxes, as the cost of government was sandbagged into debt. Likewise, the stock market went on a tear.
International businesses continued to use the dollar as the unit of international trade, thanks to its stability and relatively low inflation.
Bonds have offered lower and lower yields since 1980, which tended to increase the value of existing issues. Now we're close to zero.

For a detailed/somewhat tedious read on government debt and the commonality of defaults, even at modest debt/GDP ratios, read "This Time is Different" by Reinhart and Rogoff.




PAstash

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Re: Looking for a market historian for a few questions...
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2017, 11:11:08 AM »
Not sure how to look this up historically. I was having trouble Googleing this.

When the U.S. federal government has expanded it's debt drastically in a short period of time say 4-8 years how has that effected the stock market? How has it effected global markets? How has it effected bond markets? in what time period has it effected the markets? did it effect them during that period or did it happen after?

What happened with Tbills?
How were small businesses effected?
how were international businesses effected?

Thanks much anyone who has the time to take a stab at these. Just doing a little research. Pretty please cite your work if possible. If you have a website to go to where i could look all this info up a reference would be much obliged.

The federal government has been expanding it's debt and debt/GDP ratio since about 1980. All sorts of outcomes have occurred in the meantime:

T-bills paid pitiful returns the entire time.
The high inflation of the 1970s was subdued and never really came back.
Businesses enjoyed lower taxes, as the cost of government was sandbagged into debt. Likewise, the stock market went on a tear.
International businesses continued to use the dollar as the unit of international trade, thanks to its stability and relatively low inflation.
Bonds have offered lower and lower yields since 1980, which tended to increase the value of existing issues. Now we're close to zero.

For a detailed/somewhat tedious read on government debt and the commonality of defaults, even at modest debt/GDP ratios, read "This Time is Different" by Reinhart and Rogoff.

Thanks for the recommendation i'll check it out.

Mr Mark

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Re: Looking for a market historian for a few questions...
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2017, 12:06:03 PM »
Yeah.... their analysis subsequently shown to be incorrect analysis, cherry picked data and spreadsheet errors. FWIW