https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Waiting-For-Avg.pdfThe article breaks down the macro components contributing to stock market returns. Concludes that the historical average return of ~10% per year is unlikely to continue, and that ~6% is more of the norm. Note that it's not as bad as the seeming 4% reduction, because those are nominal returns and inflation expectations are also low. But still, even in real terms this is lower than historical average.
This could throw a wrench into the 4% SWR plans. Have you thought about this and if so do you have any thoughts/plans on dealing with it?There are several more macro articles on their site:
https://www.crestmontresearch.com/stock-market/And John Bogle, the king of indexing himself, said that returns will be lower going forward:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns#John_BogleAnd before people start with the "no one can predict the future" line, I will add a note: Yes, no one can
deterministically predict the future. But that doesn't mean that we cannot intelligently anticipate likelihoods. For example: If John Doe travels from NYC to Syria today and plants to stay there for a week, can anyone predict whether Mr. Doe will die of unnatural causes while in Syria or not? No, they cannot predict that. But at the same time, we can reasonably anticipate that Mr. Doe is more likely to die of unnatural causes in Syria tomorrow than he is in NYC. And possibly take some action to mitigate the risk (postpone the travel if possible, visit another safer place, etc.)
