Author Topic: Delete  (Read 1032 times)

Encinoman45

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Delete
« on: July 16, 2023, 11:09:17 AM »
Mods please delete this thread. It seems like I upset some folks. That wasn't my intention.

« Last Edit: July 17, 2023, 05:11:02 AM by Encinoman45 »

englishteacheralex

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Are we being scolded for buying risk-free investments that suddenly have decent returns after 10+ years of terrible interest rates? Different investments work well for different goals. I for one have no regrets about the $80k I've put in bonds and money market funds over the past two years. It fit with my strategy and I'm thrilled with the returns, which was money I needed for short term goals. We have $400k invested in the market and this year has been nice for that, too...but 2022 wasn't!

ATtiny85

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Are we being scolded for buying risk-free investments that suddenly have decent returns after 10+ years of terrible interest rates? Different investments work well for different goals. I for one have no regrets about the $80k I've put in bonds and money market funds over the past two years. It fit with my strategy and I'm thrilled with the returns, which was money I needed for short term goals. We have $400k invested in the market and this year has been nice for that, too...but 2022 wasn't!

Change that “bonds and MM” to pre-paying a mortgage and you can (and will) be scolded by a bunch of posters.


dividendman

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Are we being scolded for buying risk-free investments that suddenly have decent returns after 10+ years of terrible interest rates? Different investments work well for different goals. I for one have no regrets about the $80k I've put in bonds and money market funds over the past two years. It fit with my strategy and I'm thrilled with the returns, which was money I needed for short term goals. We have $400k invested in the market and this year has been nice for that, too...but 2022 wasn't!

Change that “bonds and MM” to pre-paying a mortgage and you can (and will) be scolded by a bunch of posters.

Maybe, but let's say you have a IPS that says to keep 5% of your portfolio allocated to cash/short term bonds. Doesn't it make sense to look for the best rates? That's what I've done. I haven't changed my allocations, but of course I'm going to look for the lowest fees on ETFs/Mutual funds and highest interest on cash/short term bonds.

englishteacheralex

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Are we being scolded for buying risk-free investments that suddenly have decent returns after 10+ years of terrible interest rates? Different investments work well for different goals. I for one have no regrets about the $80k I've put in bonds and money market funds over the past two years. It fit with my strategy and I'm thrilled with the returns, which was money I needed for short term goals. We have $400k invested in the market and this year has been nice for that, too...but 2022 wasn't!

Change that “bonds and MM” to pre-paying a mortgage and you can (and will) be scolded by a bunch of posters.

Oh don't I know it. So: That $80k came from the sale of our previous home, and we elected to put the lowest amount possible down on our current home (mortgage rate 2.99%) so that we could put (some) of the extra money into bonds and mm accounts at 4.5%+ DPOYM crowd please don't scold me!

VanillaGorilla

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10 year treasuries have returned -7% CAGR over the last two years. 30 year treasuries are even worse. TIPS are giving negative real returns. Money markets are returning 3% after taxes (at my marginal rate) and zero accounting for inflation. I-bonds were yielding a ton but will return a lot less now that inflation is dropping like a rock.

Personally I see no reason to change course from my 100% equities buy-and-hold-and-buy-more strategy.

The total US market is beating all bonds/tbills/tips/whatever since Jan 2022. Start before that and it gets even more dramatic.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=2022&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=100&asset2=LongTreasury&allocation2_2=100&asset3=TIPS&allocation3_3=100
« Last Edit: July 16, 2023, 11:59:58 AM by VanillaGorilla »

wageslave23

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That's fine. But this probably would have been recieved better if you had posted it at the beginning of the year and not after the fact. It's like saying a poker player was wrong after the flop because his cards didn't come up. Or because yours did. Also, the economy is still not out of the woods. Until the fed has stopped raising rates and starts to lower them then 6 months after is when we'll know if a recession was avoided or not.

reeshau

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That's fine. But this probably would have been recieved better if you had posted it at the beginning of the year and not after the fact. It's like saying a poker player was wrong after the flop because his cards didn't come up. Or because yours did. Also, the economy is still not out of the woods. Until the fed has stopped raising rates and starts to lower them then 6 months after is when we'll know if a recession was avoided or not.

+1

Google "resulting."  If the message is "follow your investment plan," then yes.  If the message is "shame on you for changing your plan to changing circumstances," then no.

The odd part was 0% interest rates for a decade.  Many, many investors overweighted equity assets because guaranteed negative returns is not smart.  Seeing people move back in is, in a lot of cases, the return to their preferred mix, not a deviation.  Also for many, maximizing potential gain is also not the goal.  Once you have enough, whatever that is, guaranteed gains that are good enough can bring a lot better sleep than keeping the pedal to the metal.  Lots of people are relived to be back in some fixed income at a decent level, not envious at all.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2023, 07:23:56 PM by reeshau »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Delete
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2023, 07:17:36 AM »
Mods please delete this thread. It seems like I upset some folks. That wasn't my intention.
I did not see the OP, but I don't see a lot of upset folks either.

wageslave23

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Re: Delete
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2023, 07:32:44 AM »
Mods please delete this thread. It seems like I upset some folks. That wasn't my intention.
I did not see the OP, but I don't see a lot of upset folks either.

I wasn't upset. The original post just seemed like Monday morning quarterbacking.

ATtiny85

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Re: Delete
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2023, 08:15:42 AM »
And it is an important topic. Changing too much due to the current conditions has caused an awful lot of drag on portfolios. Likewise, some good changes has created a lot of wealth.

Talking through actions that one is proposing, getting some feedback (even facepunchy feedback), and so on is what we are doing here.

Maybe OP thought they hit a nerve they should not have hit, but @Encinoman45 , everything worth discussing is going to hit some nerves. Please don't concern yourself with it.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Delete
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2023, 11:53:39 AM »
Mods please delete this thread. It seems like I upset some folks. That wasn't my intention.
What I see is a conversation going on without the original poster (OP), so I disagree.  I disagree with deleting someone else's conversation, even if you started it.

Personally I feel responsible for taking part in a conversation after I start a thread.  That can involve debate and disagreement.


Talking through actions that one is proposing, getting some feedback (even facepunchy feedback), and so on is what we are doing here.

Maybe OP thought they hit a nerve they should not have hit, but @Encinoman45 , everything worth discussing is going to hit some nerves. Please don't concern yourself with it.
Addendum - starting a new thread can involve debate, disagreement and "facepunches".  Facepunch refers not to physical violence but to contradicting someone with facts - jolting them to reality.

solon

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Re: Delete
« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2023, 02:34:50 PM »
I missed the OP. Could someone re-create it?

wageslave23

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Re: Delete
« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2023, 03:31:54 PM »
I missed the OP. Could someone re-create it?

OP said that a lot of people were talking about high interest rates on ibonds, savings accounts etc. Now that the sp500 is up 17% ytd, hopefully those people who moved into high interest alternatives realize they missed out on market gains and don't change their allocations based on high interest rates or looming recession fears in the future.