Author Topic: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years  (Read 3918 times)

dungoofed

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Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« on: July 18, 2015, 08:34:06 AM »
It seems like everyone loves to wheel out the ole Nikkei when the discussion turns to "buy and hold doesn't work out for everyone - just look at the Japanese investor who was buying in the 80s!" then cue a series of gently-down-sloping graphs.

There's this dude who is famous in Japan at the moment called Kiritani-san. He first appeared on this talk show hosted by an enormous transvestite called Matsuko Deluxe, shot to instant fame and has since appeared a few more times on the show and published a book (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Kiritani-san-kabunushi-yutai-seikatsu/dp/4041105595).

He even has his own Wikipedia page these days:

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%A1%90%E8%B0%B7%E5%BA%83%E4%BA%BA

Apparently he was a Shogi (chess) master, but what he really became famous for was the fact that he was a master of collecting investments based on the freebies they were giving out.

His investments are worth about USD1.5m, spread over about 600 different companies. Dividends give him about USD25,000 per year, which more than covers his rent and electricity. Everything else is completely covered by the USD40,000-odd in vouchers he receives from companies.

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=桐谷+優待&tbm=isch

(I tried and failed to find the TV episode where he became famous because it's quite easy to make out what's going on)

Vouchers which, I might add, don't appear on any graph of the Nikkei I've ever seen.

(there's also other weird shit in Japan like this: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/31/business/international/in-japan-you-get-a-tax-break-and-a-side-of-lobster-and-beef.html?_r=0)

Anyway, I'm not going to claim that returns have been great for Japanese investors but they haven't been as bad as people keep making out.

josstache

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2015, 08:57:06 AM »
He has 1.5m in investments and spends his days biking around town to spend his $20 vouchers for cell phone straps, or seeing 3 movies a week.  Those vouchers are only worthwhile in fairly limited circumstances (e.g., if they are useable at your local grocery store.  The joke of the TV segments is that his life is seemingly controlled by vouchers.

forummm

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2015, 08:59:08 AM »
For those of us not familiar with him and who can't read Japanese (including Google Translate), could you explain more of what you mean? How did this guy's investments do so well compared to the Nikkei?

Aphalite

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2015, 09:11:43 AM »
I think this is just an example of looking at "total return" rather than a stock chart. Like joss said, at times it might be more trouble than it's worth to actually expend the time and energy to use the vouchers, but the lesson (affected by my own confirmation bias) I'm getting from this is to never trust only a chart. It's hard to see one off dividends or spinoffs that way

dungoofed

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2015, 03:37:20 PM »
forummm I think the point I want to make is that even if his investments were only doing as well as the poorly-performing Nikkei, if he has less expenses due to all the freebies the companies are sending him, he has got more money to plow back into his investments. All roads lead to Rome.

This one here, he's getting ready for his trip to the US:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRYzM97pBUY

It says "for buying 145000 yen worth (about $1200) of 'Plaza Create' stock you receive a 2000 yen ($17) coupon" which he uses to buy some film for the trip.

Next he says he wants to buy a guidebook, and he pulls out this massive stack of "tosho cards" that he has received from companies over the years which are basically like charged cards that are accepted at many bookstores in Japan. The key point is that they have no expiry.


brooklynguy

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2015, 03:58:37 PM »
forummm I think the point I want to make is that even if his investments were only doing as well as the poorly-performing Nikkei, if he has less expenses due to all the freebies the companies are sending him, he has got more money to plow back into his investments.

That's quite a different point than "Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 years."

dungoofed

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2015, 04:07:33 PM »
Yes, the title is mild trolling.

At the least it explains why the Japanese aren't the ones complaining about their investments over this time period; it's almost entirely outsiders pointing to their Nikkei graph saying "see! This is why you need international diversification" or whatever.

Domestic buy-and-hold has worked out just fine for some Japanese.

Now that I think about it, it's not that different to the way foreigners criticise the home bias of Australians without understanding the tax benefits that are in place for investing locally.

forummm

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2015, 04:47:13 PM »
Interesting. So the Nikkei is really a misleading indicator in some ways. Sure it's a huge hassle to use these vouchers. But if they are double the dividends, that's huge.

Japanese TV may be even weirder than the US. Not only do they have reality shows, but you can watch the people watching the reality shows while you watch it too.

dungoofed

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2015, 01:25:09 AM »
I guess you could say that targeting company freebies is similar to targeting companies based on the dividend they pay.

meep

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2015, 02:31:27 AM »
So that`s what hes really famous for? I know him as that weird hoarder-ish oyaji that Matsuko Deluxe is helping find a new home because his current home is too small and filled too much with all the things he gets with those vouchers.

dungoofed

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2015, 05:37:19 AM »
So that`s what hes really famous for? I know him as that weird hoarder-ish oyaji that Matsuko Deluxe is helping find a new home because his current home is too small and filled too much with all the things he gets with those vouchers.

I wish I could find the original episode where he debuted on Getsu Kara Yofukashi, over a year ago now. They follow him through his day as he bicycles from place to place using up these damn vouchers lol.

Interesting. So the Nikkei is really a misleading indicator in some ways. Sure it's a huge hassle to use these vouchers. But if they are double the dividends, that's huge.

Furthermore, if you have a voucher for $20 it's probably only costing the company about $10.

hodedofome

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2015, 11:29:47 AM »
They have to give out these freebies so that people will actually buy the stock. That should tell you something, lol.

meep

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Re: Japanese Market Hasn't Been So Bad for Past 30 Years
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2015, 09:06:21 PM »
So that`s what hes really famous for? I know him as that weird hoarder-ish oyaji that Matsuko Deluxe is helping find a new home because his current home is too small and filled too much with all the things he gets with those vouchers.

I wish I could find the original episode where he debuted on Getsu Kara Yofukashi, over a year ago now. They follow him through his day as he bicycles from place to place using up these damn vouchers lol.

Hey, same show lol. I watched the finding a home episode about a month ago. It left off with a to be continued but it`s not a show I usually watch so who knows where they`re at now.