Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 625473 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2950 on: April 15, 2025, 12:37:09 PM »
Tesla won’t take your Cybertruck trade-in as lots fill with unsold EVs (motorbiscuit.com)

Quote
Unsold stockpiles of Tesla Cybertrucks have reached all-time highs, with nearly $200 million in idle vehicles sitting on lots. To keep that number from creeping ever higher, Tesla is refusing trade-in requests from current Cybertruck owners.

Tesla is sitting on $200 million worth of Cybertruck inventory (electrek.co)

Quote
In the meantime, Tesla finds itself holding more Cybertruck inventory than ever, with almost 2,400 Cybertrucks in new inventory available (via Tesla-Info)

I didn't "math" the $200m at first, but realizing it's only 2400 Cybertrucks, that doesn't seem so bad. They seem to be selling roughly that many each month, so it's something like a 30 day supply. Many manufacturers have much larger inventories (though often held by dealerships).

Are you sure those are for sale . . . or do they just use them for spare parts to replace the bits that have fallen off where the glue holding the cybertruck together failed?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2951 on: April 15, 2025, 01:40:07 PM »
Kinda an odd observation: The majority of Cybertrucks I've seen on the road have been "wrapped" to make them a different color or pattern than the bare stainless steel, which was formerly considered a feature.

Shimmering multicolor "look at me!" wraps are popular, as is fake blue camouflage, as used when militaries must operate in fields of bluebells after a recent snow. The goal for the CT buyer appears to be to get as much attention and "looks" as possible. Thus, Cybertrucks are in competition with Jeeps and pretty trucks for the market of people willing to spend six figures to buy a very expensive and impractical vehicle with tens of thousands of dollars of "customization" work done to express their "individuality" in the most consumeristic way possible.

To be clear for anyone who isn't caught up, the product is not transportation. It's status within a subculture with a similar mindset.

Tesla's product stands out among the Jeeps and pretty trucks as being the only one without a huge belching gasoline or diesel engine and the only one that is, judging from the Youtube videos, helpless off-road and impractical for towing. Acceptance has been low as the Tesla product deviates from the norms and values of Jeep/Truck culture aficionados. Thus, cybertruck owners seem to be culturally "lone wolves" for now, who see value in showing off how different they are and how hated they are by others.

That could change as they create their own subculture of impracticality and financial incineration, with CT-only meetups to show off their purchases and customizations while saluting Elon Musk. Thus, as bad a vehicle as the CT is, it still might develop a cult (literal cult) following. If tariffs shut down production of many Jeeps and pretty trucks, Elon's plastic dumpster might become a thing among those with more money to burn than good sense. With pretty trucks and Jeeps almost everywhere, the CT fills a void in the overpaid-narcissistic-douchebag market simply for being less common than the others.

The real question is how long this demographic can continue affording to buy vehicles that cost as much as a manufactured home. The same tariffs that could force demand into CTs could also force these bad-at-money / eager-for-approval individuals out of their jobs as cellphone salesmen, day traders, and assistants in their dad's business.

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2952 on: April 15, 2025, 02:00:08 PM »
Tesla's product stands out among the Jeeps and pretty trucks as being the only one without a huge belching gasoline or diesel engine...

First-Ever 2026 ESCALADE IQL

Quote
LONG RANGE 3-ROW EV SUV
FROM: $130,405

*ahem*

HPstache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2953 on: April 15, 2025, 02:26:54 PM »
Kinda an odd observation: The majority of Cybertrucks I've seen on the road have been "wrapped" to make them a different color or pattern than the bare stainless steel, which was formerly considered a feature.

Shimmering multicolor "look at me!" wraps are popular, as is fake blue camouflage, as used when militaries must operate in fields of bluebells after a recent snow. The goal for the CT buyer appears to be to get as much attention and "looks" as possible. Thus, Cybertrucks are in competition with Jeeps and pretty trucks for the market of people willing to spend six figures to buy a very expensive and impractical vehicle with tens of thousands of dollars of "customization" work done to express their "individuality" in the most consumeristic way possible.

To be clear for anyone who isn't caught up, the product is not transportation. It's status within a subculture with a similar mindset.

Tesla's product stands out among the Jeeps and pretty trucks as being the only one without a huge belching gasoline or diesel engine and the only one that is, judging from the Youtube videos, helpless off-road and impractical for towing. Acceptance has been low as the Tesla product deviates from the norms and values of Jeep/Truck culture aficionados. Thus, cybertruck owners seem to be culturally "lone wolves" for now, who see value in showing off how different they are and how hated they are by others.

That could change as they create their own subculture of impracticality and financial incineration, with CT-only meetups to show off their purchases and customizations while saluting Elon Musk. Thus, as bad a vehicle as the CT is, it still might develop a cult (literal cult) following. If tariffs shut down production of many Jeeps and pretty trucks, Elon's plastic dumpster might become a thing among those with more money to burn than good sense. With pretty trucks and Jeeps almost everywhere, the CT fills a void in the overpaid-narcissistic-douchebag market simply for being less common than the others.

The real question is how long this demographic can continue affording to buy vehicles that cost as much as a manufactured home. The same tariffs that could force demand into CTs could also force these bad-at-money / eager-for-approval individuals out of their jobs as cellphone salesmen, day traders, and assistants in their dad's business.

I have seen a lot of wrapped CTs as well.  My assumption was because of the simple shape of the truck, it can be performed very easily and cost effectively.  CTs are absolutely owned for the "look at me" factor, I know a lot of real estate professionals that got them and put their logos or whatever on them to help get eyes and business their way... I'd say that's pretty well backfired in their faces at this point.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2954 on: April 15, 2025, 02:50:23 PM »
Tesla's product stands out among the Jeeps and pretty trucks as being the only one without a huge belching gasoline or diesel engine...

First-Ever 2026 ESCALADE IQL

Quote
LONG RANGE 3-ROW EV SUV
FROM: $130,405

*ahem*

I know I'll be in the minority here, but when I learned about this a few weeks ago, I felt nothing but *desire*. I need absolution.

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2955 on: April 15, 2025, 03:03:23 PM »
First-Ever 2026 ESCALADE IQL
I felt nothing but *desire*. I need absolution.

I mean it's only like 3 lbs heavier than my Polestar, so, why not? :-)

Though it's at least $100k more expensive...

I owned a 1999 Tahoe LS back in 2004-2007. It was GLORIOUS. (But like 13 mpg.) The space was just so nice.

Of course it had a beat up clothe interior of a mid-1990s Chevy truck. But I could throw my full-sized mountain bike in the back with the wheels on and still haul 5 of my friends places.

I would totally want something ridiculous like this... if it was built just for space, efficiency, travel. What better way to go on a road trip?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2956 on: April 15, 2025, 03:05:00 PM »
Tesla's product stands out among the Jeeps and pretty trucks as being the only one without a huge belching gasoline or diesel engine...

First-Ever 2026 ESCALADE IQL

Quote
LONG RANGE 3-ROW EV SUV
FROM: $130,405

*ahem*

I know I'll be in the minority here, but when I learned about this a few weeks ago, I felt nothing but *desire*. I need absolution.
IDK, how big exactly is the overlap between people who are conscientious enough to want to save the planet, but not conscientious enough not to incinerate $130k on a friggin luxury motor couch? The CT bros would definitely be buying Jeep Gladiators if it was not for the CT, but who exactly is this aimed at? The same bros at the age of 60?

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2957 on: April 15, 2025, 05:36:11 PM »
These legacy auto makers catching up are the exact reason I am out on Tesla. They were cool five years ago, but they have lost a lot of their luster.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2958 on: April 15, 2025, 06:37:34 PM »
Tesla has sold 647 cars halfway through the month (4/15) in the European countries that report daily (ex-UK). They're ranked 11th in EV sales.

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_DAILY/Brands/Month/2025/4

Tesla sold 4544 in April 2024 and was ranked 3rd in EV sales.

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_DAILY/Brands/Month/2024/4

We're halfway through the month but sales will be nowhere close to the April 2024 numbers. The Model Y refresh bump seems to be insignificant and temporary.

It's early but this quarter might be just as brutal as Q1.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2959 on: April 15, 2025, 08:36:09 PM »
with CT-only meetups to show off their purchases and customizations while saluting Elon Musk.

And he helpfully showed them the correct salute to use!

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2960 on: April 16, 2025, 03:46:48 AM »
Tesla's product stands out among the Jeeps and pretty trucks as being the only one without a huge belching gasoline or diesel engine...

First-Ever 2026 ESCALADE IQL

Quote
LONG RANGE 3-ROW EV SUV
FROM: $130,405

*ahem*

I know I'll be in the minority here, but when I learned about this a few weeks ago, I felt nothing but *desire*. I need absolution.
IDK, how big exactly is the overlap between people who are conscientious enough to want to save the planet, but not conscientious enough not to incinerate $130k on a friggin luxury motor couch? The CT bros would definitely be buying Jeep Gladiators if it was not for the CT, but who exactly is this aimed at? The same bros at the age of 60?

I'd say that the potential buyer for an Escalade EV probably has lots of overlap with the regular Escalade buyer pool. They want some flash and status.

The regular Escalade starts over $90k these days and goes over $160k for certain optioned up trim levels.  The base model gets 16mpg combined and it's strongly recommended (or flat out required) to use Premium unleaded, which can be $1/gal more than regular in some places. The government estimates $4-5k annually in fuel:

https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=48629&id=48556

The Escalade EV is smoother, quieter, and faster than the regular Escalade, and you can plug it in at home for convenience and much lower day-to-day running costs. They'll likely see massive depreciation, so interested MMMers will probably be able to find some relative deals on used examples in the future.

Frankly, the Lucid Gravity seems way more impressive and appealing to me than the Caddy EV but I'm not in the market for such a vehicle.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2961 on: April 16, 2025, 07:57:05 AM »
Given how public the failures of the Cybertruck are regarding shoddiness of construction (glued on panels falling off), terrible design (multiple images of CTs getting stuck and then having to be towed out of places by other trucks), and stupid warranty (voided if you take one into a car wash) . . . are these actually still flash and status?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2962 on: April 16, 2025, 10:37:01 AM »
Tesla Slumps Below 50% Share of California's Electric Car Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/tesla-slumps-below-50-share-of-california-s-electric-car-market?leadSource=reddit_wall

You read it here months/years ago.

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2963 on: April 16, 2025, 11:08:10 AM »
Couldn't read at Bloomberg, but since it's an article from the past, I was able to read it in the archives - https://archive.ph/rTOhc

Quote
Tesla sold 42,322 vehicles in California during the first three months of the year, the bulk of which were Model Y SUVs and Model 3 sedans. The two vehicles remained the top-selling EVs in the state, followed by the Honda Prologue and Hyundai Ioniq 5 SUVs.

Importantly...
Quote
California is by far the largest EV market in the US, accounting for 31.1% of registrations last year, according to the dealers’ association.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2964 on: April 16, 2025, 09:10:31 PM »
10 years ago (when iPhone 6 was released) AAPL had a PE ratio of like 10

Microsoft too. 

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2965 on: April 16, 2025, 09:18:32 PM »
Did we just evolve to have these crazy high margin software heavy business models? Is this what lead to insanely high PEs?

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2966 on: April 17, 2025, 07:37:50 AM »
Did we just evolve to have these crazy high margin software heavy business models? Is this what lead to insanely high PEs?

Newer companies without those margins exist, too.  So, I would answer: yes. It's not simply a symptom of the market.  It is about their business model.  And not just margins, but the speed with which they can grow without having to commit significant infrastructure across every geography they reach.  Contrast that to a restaurant chain, for example.   They can also grow quickly as they expand nationwide, but they require significant capital to do so.  (And, witness the franchise model, which is a way to turn the restaurant business into an idea / ip business, although not fully)

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2967 on: April 17, 2025, 02:45:05 PM »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2968 on: April 17, 2025, 03:40:20 PM »
Tesla Slumps Below 50% Share of California's Electric Car Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/tesla-slumps-below-50-share-of-california-s-electric-car-market?leadSource=reddit_wall

You read it here months/years ago.

You lost out on huge gains over those same years, but congrats I guess?

I also predict all stocks will eventually go to zero and I will be proven eerily correct 1,000 years from now, so bookmark this post.


41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2969 on: April 17, 2025, 05:53:06 PM »
Did we just evolve to have these crazy high margin software heavy business models? Is this what lead to insanely high PEs?

Newer companies without those margins exist, too.  So, I would answer: yes. It's not simply a symptom of the market.  It is about their business model.  And not just margins, but the speed with which they can grow without having to commit significant infrastructure across every geography they reach.  Contrast that to a restaurant chain, for example.   They can also grow quickly as they expand nationwide, but they require significant capital to do so.  (And, witness the franchise model, which is a way to turn the restaurant business into an idea / ip business, although not fully)
Ah, so part if it is how scalable a lot of those businesses are. I was thinking about that.

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2970 on: April 22, 2025, 02:18:24 PM »
https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/IR/TSLA-Q1-2025-Update.pdf

Automotive revenues down 20% YoY.

Deliveries was on a growth trajectory through Q4-2024, before dropping.

Q1-2024 386,810
Q2-2024 443,956
Q3-2024 462,890
Q4-2024 495,570
Q1-2025 336,681

Beyond car sales, I'm not well-versed in how to read this. Q1-2025 looks bad to me, since it's worse than the previous 4 quarters, often by a wide margin.

Quote
Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.

Quote
Our purpose-built Robotaxi product – Cybercab – will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy and is
scheduled for volume production starting in 2026.

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2971 on: April 23, 2025, 08:39:10 AM »
So setting aside selling credits to other car companies and interest earned on reserves, Tesla is a money losing company again. Interesting.

In other news the stock is up almost 8%, lol.

-W

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2972 on: April 23, 2025, 10:14:16 AM »
So setting aside selling credits to other car companies and interest earned on reserves, Tesla is a money losing company again. Interesting.

In other news the stock is up almost 8%, lol.

-W

So the company with $3/4 of a trillion in market cap relies on gov payments? Sounds like a potential DOGE target!

dividendman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2973 on: April 23, 2025, 10:49:23 AM »
My puts are all doing great but I am tempted to buy more on this mini run up.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2974 on: April 23, 2025, 10:54:55 AM »
My puts are all doing great but I am tempted to buy more on this mini run up.

This is a trend with poor Tesla results. Elon does his magic on the investor call, the stock rises with renewed optimism, and then it falls when reality arrives.

YMMV, past results, etc.

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2975 on: April 23, 2025, 11:14:03 AM »
Vitality Katsenelson gives his thoughts on Tesla's share price.  I think his framework lays out why the bulls and bears keep arguing past each other: it's a pretty stark painting of what the current company might be worth, and what potential future products are being valued at.

https://investor.fm/current-thoughts-on-tesla/

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2976 on: April 24, 2025, 11:33:50 AM »
Even if Elon steps away from Doge, I still think damage has been done to the brand. It is not as doom and gloom as this forum or reddit makes it seem, but there is a good chunk of liberals who will continue buying EVs but never a Tesla.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2977 on: April 24, 2025, 01:20:28 PM »
Even if Elon steps away from Doge, I still think damage has been done to the brand. It is not as doom and gloom as this forum or reddit makes it seem, but there is a good chunk of liberals who will continue buying EVs but never a Tesla.
IDK, in Musk's absence, I wouldn't be surprised if the engineers and marketing teams have had the free space to generate some plausible ideas that would actually sell, like a worldwide $30k EV platform, a compact pickup, or an actually practical battery swap system.

I get the sense Musk ordered resources into the Cybertruck and magic taxi/bus against expert advice, as his own version of the Schwerer Gustav, Hindenburg, or Bismark. Concentrations of wealth and power can lead unrestrained megalomaniac leaders to ignore their engineers and generals and direct resources into groundbreaking, vain, and "biggest" things that are not practical.

Of course, we've learned TSLA stock has a mind of its own, so the company's success or failure doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the share price. The answer to the original question is that it's not an investment at all.

HPstache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2978 on: April 25, 2025, 08:45:24 AM »
My puts are all doing great but I am tempted to buy more on this mini run up.

Did you do it?

Kapyarn

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2979 on: April 25, 2025, 10:13:02 AM »
My puts are all doing great but I am tempted to buy more on this mini run up.

Did you do it?

Hopefully not, that would have been a big loss.

dividendman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2980 on: April 25, 2025, 10:33:45 AM »
My puts are all doing great but I am tempted to buy more on this mini run up.

Did you do it?

Hopefully not, that would have been a big loss.

Not yet, I'll post if I do, just like my previous positions. None of them are even 1% of my net worth though, so it's just for fun really.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2981 on: April 25, 2025, 11:29:37 AM »
So setting aside selling credits to other car companies and interest earned on reserves, Tesla is a money losing company again. Interesting.

In other news the stock is up almost 8%, lol.

-W

I don't think selling credits is that big of a deal.  Who cares how you make your money as long as the checks cash, right?   One thing that hasn't been as widely reported is the margins, which are now down to 2%.  Which is not good, even in an industry known for its crappy margins.   Losing sales, market share, and margin at the same time is officially Real Bad.™

Musk doesn't seem to have any plan to right the ship.   Cars are fashion statements, and all manufacturers do a refresh every four or five years.   The Model Y refresh doesn't quite count, IMO.  Their other models are getting long in the tooth.   

Tesla's low cost entries apparently will be stripped down models Y and 3 instead of a new platform.  Typically manufacturers add features to older models to make them more attractive, not remove them.

 The robotaxi will not roll out with the cybercab we've seen previously.  Instead it will be a geofenced Model Y.   Tesla released a video demonstrating the robotaxi with a safety driver in the car.   Musk says that by mid-next year there will be "millions" of fully autonomous Teslas and will have a 99% market share.   

These claims do not sound plausible.


You lost out on huge gains over those same years, but congrats I guess?

   

"Line go up" is a thought stopping phrase design to avoid thinking about the actual topic. 

I get the sense Musk ordered resources into the Cybertruck and magic taxi/bus against expert advice, as his own version of the Schwerer Gustav, Hindenburg, or Bismark. Concentrations of wealth and power can lead unrestrained megalomaniac leaders to ignore their engineers and generals and direct resources into groundbreaking, vain, and "biggest" things that are not practical.


Perfect analogy.   The Cybertruck might have worked if they were able to sell it at the originally advertised price and specs.   The preorder base Cybertruck list price was $40K, about the same as a base F-150 or Silverado.   But by delivery time, it was $80K.   The median US car price is $48K.    So the price moved from affordable to high end.    Somebody should have told Musk they couldn't make this thing for $40K.  Or maybe they did, but he didn't believe them.    Regardless, they plowed all these resources into a high end luxury-type vehicle and the market will always be small for something like that.  They were never going to sell 250,000/year, ever.   In the meantime, they didn't develop a low end, consumer friendly model, which is where the market is (and was Tesla's stated master plan, by the way).

Musk seems to be making a similar wild bet on the Cybercab.   His statements seem to indicate the autonomous driving problem will be solved by this time next year.   I find that very unlikely. 


Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2982 on: April 25, 2025, 11:53:54 AM »
Did we just evolve to have these crazy high margin software heavy business models? Is this what lead to insanely high PEs?

I think it is just the market cycles.  Sometimes PE's overall are low, sometimes they are high.  Right now they are high.   FWIW, right now Google has a P/E of 19, which is about in its traditional range, and not too bad for a high growth company, which Google still is.

By way of comparison, for Tesla 9PE 160) to have a similar PE to Google, Tesla would have to grow earnings by 13%/year for 15 years--with the stock price remaining the same.   

There are some who say this is not likely.   

windytrail

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2983 on: April 25, 2025, 01:47:38 PM »
As expected, blue states are beginning to take aim at the emission credits given to Tesla. Here is an article (unlocked) from the Seattle Times about a bill being fast-tracked in the Washington State legislature to tax emission credits from Tesla: https://archive.is/pO3vQ. If passed, it would raise $75-100 million per year.

Other blue states (and countries) with these emission credit programs are likely working on similar efforts.

HPstache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2984 on: April 25, 2025, 03:52:08 PM »
As expected, blue states are beginning to take aim at the emission credits given to Tesla. Here is an article (unlocked) from the Seattle Times about a bill being fast-tracked in the Washington State legislature to tax emission credits from Tesla: https://archive.is/pO3vQ. If passed, it would raise $75-100 million per year.

Other blue states (and countries) with these emission credit programs are likely working on similar efforts.

Blue states fast tracking bills to slow down the progress of electrifying transportation, now I think I've heard it all.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2985 on: April 25, 2025, 04:50:15 PM »
What is the idea behind blue states getting rid of Tesla tax credits? Is it retaliating against DOGE and all of his antics? Is it to prop up legacy American auto maker EV production? Both?

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2986 on: April 25, 2025, 04:50:23 PM »
I am short TSLA via exactly one long put.  $375 exposure.

Kapyarn

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2987 on: April 25, 2025, 07:43:56 PM »
I am short TSLA via exactly one long put.  $375 exposure.

What strike is only $3.75 per share?

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2988 on: April 28, 2025, 10:12:23 AM »
I just don't see the vision with Tesla. Elon is irradict and the legacy auto makers are making up a lot of ground. 5 years ago, I would have bought a Tesla, but now Ford, Chevy, and Kia all have good options.

windytrail

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2989 on: April 28, 2025, 02:04:01 PM »
What is the idea behind blue states getting rid of Tesla tax credits? Is it retaliating against DOGE and all of his antics? Is it to prop up legacy American auto maker EV production? Both?

A combination of retaliation and revenue generation. Washington State is facing a substantial budget shortfall, and thus we need new sources of revenue. Taxing the rich is popular. Taxing a company controlled by the richest (and one of the most hated) person in the country is likely a politically savvy move.


New York is now moving to revoke Tesla's ability to sell vehicles in that state: https://fortune.com/2025/04/28/elon-musk-tesla-sales-new-york-state-government/

Juan Ponce de León

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2990 on: April 29, 2025, 02:14:17 AM »
I just don't see the vision with Tesla. Elon is irradict and the legacy auto makers are making up a lot of ground. 5 years ago, I would have bought a Tesla, but now Ford, Chevy, and Kia all have good options.

All new cars are basically disposable junk these days.

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2991 on: April 29, 2025, 06:07:30 AM »
After pressure from Chinese regulators for the auto industry to “not engage in exaggerated and false publicity,” Tesla changed the Mandarin translation of Autopilot and Full Self-Drive from “Enhanced Autonomous Assistant Driving" and “Full Self-Driving Ability" to “Enhanced Assistant Driving” and “Intelligent Assistant Driving."

According to The Wall Street Journal, the pressure is increasing after a single fatal crash of a Xiaomi car driving under control of a driver-assistance system.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2992 on: April 29, 2025, 07:23:59 AM »
After pressure from Chinese regulators for the auto industry to “not engage in exaggerated and false publicity,” Tesla changed the Mandarin translation of Autopilot and Full Self-Drive from “Enhanced Autonomous Assistant Driving" and “Full Self-Driving Ability" to “Enhanced Assistant Driving” and “Intelligent Assistant Driving."

According to The Wall Street Journal, the pressure is increasing after a single fatal crash of a Xiaomi car driving under control of a driver-assistance system.

Weird that China is the first one to call out Musk's lies in ad-speak.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2993 on: April 29, 2025, 09:21:28 AM »
Two weeks before the last U.S. presidential election:

Quote
The US auto safety regulator said Friday that it has opened an investigation into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software after receiving four reports of crashes, one of which involved a pedestrian being struck and killed.
https://www.barrons.com/news/us-regulator-probes-tesla-s-self-driving-mode-after-crashes-f1b6a05d

One week ago:

Quote
Donald Trump’s administration will make it easier to deploy self-driving cars on US roads and loosen crash reporting requirements, the most significant changes to federal rules on autonomous vehicles championed by Tesla chief executive Elon Musk.
https://www.ft.com/content/4758aea9-dddd-444e-a1d3-f6fea0e28100

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2994 on: April 29, 2025, 09:41:52 AM »
I just don't see the vision with Tesla. Elon is irradict and the legacy auto makers are making up a lot of ground. 5 years ago, I would have bought a Tesla, but now Ford, Chevy, and Kia all have good options.

All new cars are basically disposable junk these days.
They want them to be junk so you buy a new one every 7 years

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2995 on: April 29, 2025, 10:41:33 AM »
All new cars are basically disposable junk these days.
They want them to be junk so you buy a new one every 7 years

What is your criteria for considering cars "disposable junk", and how are those objectively measured and compared to cars from a different time period?

I think the easiest comparison would be a car from 1985 with a metal body and a gasoline engine / transmission that would be lucky to last 100-150K miles. Now an EV tends to be so wrapped in plastic shrouding that you cannot see anything that could be repaired or worked on... but the battery and electric motors are expected to easily last 150K miles, if not a lot more.

What other parts are factored into this analysis? Are there studies that have quantified how long the various parts, and the whole package last?

Has the average length of car ownership in the U.S. decreased from 12 years to a (much) shorter timeframe?

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2996 on: April 29, 2025, 11:37:51 AM »
All new cars are basically disposable junk these days.
They want them to be junk so you buy a new one every 7 years

What is your criteria for considering cars "disposable junk", and how are those objectively measured and compared to cars from a different time period?

I think the easiest comparison would be a car from 1985 with a metal body and a gasoline engine / transmission that would be lucky to last 100-150K miles. Now an EV tends to be so wrapped in plastic shrouding that you cannot see anything that could be repaired or worked on... but the battery and electric motors are expected to easily last 150K miles, if not a lot more.

What other parts are factored into this analysis? Are there studies that have quantified how long the various parts, and the whole package last?

Has the average length of car ownership in the U.S. decreased from 12 years to a (much) shorter timeframe?
7 years was a pretty good guess...for the 1970's.

Vehicle age has risen significantly since then, and continues to rise, even as production volume also has generally increased.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2025, 11:39:51 AM by reeshau »

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2997 on: April 29, 2025, 11:45:38 AM »
So if the average age of cars on the street is 12 years old... for every car you see that's newer than 2013, there's a corresponding one out there that's just as much older! (That's median talk, not mean, but it's not a bad approximation. And it could just be one car that's a billion years old throwing off the average! Or a bunch of classics that are counted, but just sit in a garage somewhere!)

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2998 on: April 29, 2025, 11:54:22 AM »
And it could just be one car that's a billion years old throwing off the average!

 . . . feels like a personal attack.  :P

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2999 on: April 29, 2025, 11:55:48 AM »
And it could just be one car that's a billion years old throwing off the average!

 . . . feels like a personal attack.  :P

Next you're going to claim bikes last longer than 7 years!