Is Tesla a good investment?

[Fru-Gal]

Love him or hate him (more hate now I guess), but never bet against the Elon.

I wouldn't have bet against Wernher von Braun either and the USA used the heck out of him even though he probably saluted way more than Elon.

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

[Kapyarn]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

[Fru-Gal]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

Nope. I am aware of all that and started a whole thread on Nazis in America. Would love more traction on that because it’s definitely deeper than I realized.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/the-ongoing-problem-of-nazis-in-america-past-and-present/

Not in the mood to be argued with & misunderstood today.

My sole point was that Elon has NOT disavowed Nazis nor apologized for throwing a salute, indeed he has done the opposite and implied Nazis shouldn’t be judged for their “culture”. Further, and perhaps more sinister, he both admires von Braun and then claims to be surprised —years apart— that he’s possibly named after a character in von Braun’s sci-fi novel. This is sinister because it’s clearly a narcissistic lie where he’s pretended more than once to be surprised that his name is associated with Von Braun (regardless of whether or not it’s true that his dad named him for the character).

https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/04/musk-leader-mars/

[Kapyarn]

Ok, I get you and agree with you actually, but what I was saying is America has a history with using questionable characters to advance technology and morals has not always had top priority.

My example was that NASA was in part built on von Braun's work and designs and the USA just sort of overlooked the whole war criminal thing.

History rhymes and today we see the USA benefitting from Musk via electric vehicles (going a bit south now but hard to argue that Tesla didn't at least start the push) and again the space program (SpaceX is and is likely to be a very big deal for the USA).

Based on the past actions of the USA, I would not bet against Elon is all I am saying.

[Paper Chaser]

We always harp on saying that past results do no guarantee future performance. Do we just live in an era now where these high-flying tech stocks can have obscene PE ratios?

TSLA may be grouped with tech stocks, but is Tesla a tech company? Over 85% of their 2024 revenue, and more than 90% of their profit came from selling cars. With every manufacturing plant and service center they build, their overhead inches closer to other car makers. Tesla's net margin in 2024 was ~7%. Toyota's was ~10%. Alphabet's was ~28%. Meta's was ~38%.

If their only consumer product is cars, their revenue and profit come from cars, and their margins are more in line with car companies than tech companies, should their stock be valued like a tech company or a car company?

Their only justification for tech company valuations is pinned to hopes that FSD/robo taxi is a massive success, but it's been pointed out multiple times in this thread that such success would probably be relatively low margin due to having much higher operating costs than tech companies.

TSLA's price hasn't been tied to Tesla's fundamentals for many years now. It's value is based on sentiment as much as anything. It works out for some I suppose. For others, it probably doesn't make sense.

[reeshau]

We always harp on saying that past results do no guarantee future performance. Do we just live in an era now where these high-flying tech stocks can have obscene PE ratios?

Simple P/E can be misleading for high growth companies, because it is backward-facing.  NVidia's P/E is 41.  But it's forward P/E is 27--actually cheaper than Walmart on that basis.  And with 27% expected EPS growth this year, that's a PEG of about 1--actually, a pretty good deal.  (Of course, predicated on the company making its guidance and analyst estimates)

Tesla's PE as of yesterday's close is 136; but it's forward PE is...100.  Analysts have Tesla's EPS growing at 35%--a challenging notion, given its difficult start, particularly outside the US.  But even so, that gives a PEG of 3--about twice as high as what would start to be called "expensive."

A whole lot has to go right, just to justify the price now. (Much less, get more appreciation)  if anything goes wrong, big steps down would be in the near future.

These numbers are only looking a year into the future; hardly long term,  but the future gets cloudier the farther out you go.  My conclusion is, Tesla's price today already assumes a radical transformation of the company from an automaker.  Anything less than that will disappoint the market, and cause a large price drop.  That is an extremely risky thesis to buy now.

[NorCal]

We always harp on saying that past results do no guarantee future performance. Do we just live in an era now where these high-flying tech stocks can have obscene PE ratios?

Simple P/E can be misleading for high growth companies, because it is backward-facing.  NVidia's P/E is 41.  But it's forward P/E is 27--actually cheaper than Walmart on that basis.  And with 27% expected EPS growth this year, that's a PEG of about 1--actually, a pretty good deal.  (Of course, predicated on the company making its guidance and analyst estimates)

Tesla's PE as of yesterday's close is 136; but it's forward PE is...100.  Analysts have Tesla's EPS growing at 35%--a challenging notion, given its difficult start, particularly outside the US.  But even so, that gives a PEG of 3--about twice as high as what would start to be called "expensive."

A whole lot has to go right, just to justify the price now. (Much less, get more appreciation)  if anything goes wrong, big steps down would be in the near future.

These numbers are only looking a year into the future; hardly long term,  but the future gets cloudier the farther out you go.  My conclusion is, Tesla's price today already assumes a radical transformation of the company from an automaker.  Anything less than that will disappoint the market, and cause a large price drop.  That is an extremely risky thesis to buy now.

Good god.  I had ignored that 35% EPS growth from the analysts, as I don't trust their numbers anyways.

I did the math on their insane Capex spending after 2024 results were released.  Their 2024 Capex is going to result in about $800M to $1B in margin compression for 2025.  Possibly more depending on how much Capex is AI focused (computer hardware depreciates much faster than factories).  This will reduce EPS by about 15% on its own, and doesn't factor in sales declines. 

While the internet commentary does overstate Tesla's challenges, there are zero likely scenarios that involve 35% EPS growth. 

I won't be surprised with car deliveries down ~20% for the full year (and yes; I'm counting in the declines in Canada and the 43% decline in the EU). While it's hard to put an exact financial impact on a decline like this, we're talking about a range of EPS reduction of -50% to completely eliminating profitability. 

[bacchi]

I won't be surprised with car deliveries down ~20% for the full year (and yes; I'm counting in the declines in Canada and the 43% decline in the EU). While it's hard to put an exact financial impact on a decline like this, we're talking about a range of EPS reduction of -50% to completely eliminating profitability.

Re: quarterly results

Looks like there will be a mark-to-market loss on BTC this quarter.

China sales were awful in February but are looking good this month. They may even (slightly) beat Q1 2024 numbers if the final week has similar numbers to last week.

European sales have picked up a bit, too, but the awful Jan/Feb numbers means that any slight increase in China will, at best, match the decrease in Europe.

The real question is North American sales. We know that sales fell off a cliff in Canada but the total sold was 46k in all of 2024. S&P Global has January Tesla (US) registrations down 11% from last year (to ~46k?). Cox claims that sales fell another 10% in February (=41.4k).  I'm skeptical that the Model Y refresh will have much of an impact in the US considering it's Central to the Musk controversary.

We'll see at least a 10% 6% drop in sales for Q1 2025 YOY. [Edit: Conflated US and worldwide sales.]

[41_swish]

I think I just go with my gut and say I think competition and his antics will catch up to him

[PathtoFIRE]

I'm not a sophisticated investor, but it feels like the case for investing in Tesla is increasingly centered around government interventionism/favoritism. Still too high for me at this time to consider.

[41_swish]

I don't even know why I am in this thread I literally dollar cost average the classic three fund portfolio. Picking individual stocks gives me paralysis by analysis.

[neo von retorch]

I don't even know why I am in this thread I literally dollar cost average the classic three fund portfolio. Picking individual stocks gives me paralysis by analysis.

Ditto!

But I like to feel smart (and stupid.)

I was VERY wrong about Tesla in the 2017-2020(ish) range, both the success of the Model 3 / Model Y, and what the stocks would do.

Still waiting to see if I'm right about them now with Elon being very well-hated across the globe...

[NorCal]

I don't even know why I am in this thread I literally dollar cost average the classic three fund portfolio. Picking individual stocks gives me paralysis by analysis.

Similar.  I do occasionally follow and analyze stocks for fun.  I work in finance, and I used to work for/with people that made good money buying and selling companies for a living.  I'm in a different corner of finance now though.

Trying to evaluate and analyze stocks is a fools game for all but a few people that do it professionally.  It frequently is for the professionals as well.  Going through the exercise is good for me as a reminder on how bad I am at it.

It really hit home for me when I was working in the finance department of a large well known public company.  My job was compiling all of the numbers the CFO was using to give guidance to the street.  I was the owner of all types of material insider information.  And even I couldn't reliably predict where our stock would go. 

Then I would read the reports from "analysts" covering my company.  Very few of them understood the company, industry, or how we make money.  There was one writer at the Motley Fool that continually mis-stated our per unit economics by a factor of about 20x.

If people who work 40 hours a week trying to get this stuff right can't even come close, us armchair analysts have no hope.

I still enjoy diving into the financials though.  Looking at the Tesla's Capex/depreciation/cost accounting conundrum is interesting to me because it's professionally relevant to my line of work. 

[joemandadman189]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

Nope. I am aware of all that and started a whole thread on Nazis in America. Would love more traction on that because it’s definitely deeper than I realized.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/the-ongoing-problem-of-nazis-in-america-past-and-present/

Not in the mood to be argued with & misunderstood today.

My sole point was that Elon has NOT disavowed Nazis nor apologized for throwing a salute, indeed he has done the opposite and implied Nazis shouldn’t be judged for their “culture”. Further, and perhaps more sinister, he both admires von Braun and then claims to be surprised —years apart— that he’s possibly named after a character in von Braun’s sci-fi novel. This is sinister because it’s clearly a narcissistic lie where he’s pretended more than once to be surprised that his name is associated with Von Braun (regardless of whether or not it’s true that his dad named him for the character).

https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/04/musk-leader-mars/

Can you please let this nonsense go. Elon directly addressed the "salute" in the 10-15 minute-ish mark of his last Joe Rogan podcast interview, #2281. He is not a nazi. It's incredible to me that this BS has gained so much traction and so many people have jumped on the shit on Elon train. Name one other person who has done more for green energy and to help transition from ICE vehicles to BEVs.

[Fru-Gal]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

Nope. I am aware of all that and started a whole thread on Nazis in America. Would love more traction on that because it’s definitely deeper than I realized.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/the-ongoing-problem-of-nazis-in-america-past-and-present/

Not in the mood to be argued with & misunderstood today.

My sole point was that Elon has NOT disavowed Nazis nor apologized for throwing a salute, indeed he has done the opposite and implied Nazis shouldn’t be judged for their “culture”. Further, and perhaps more sinister, he both admires von Braun and then claims to be surprised —years apart— that he’s possibly named after a character in von Braun’s sci-fi novel. This is sinister because it’s clearly a narcissistic lie where he’s pretended more than once to be surprised that his name is associated with Von Braun (regardless of whether or not it’s true that his dad named him for the character).

https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/04/musk-leader-mars/

Can you please let this nonsense go. Elon directly addressed the "salute" in the 10-15 minute-ish mark of his last Joe Rogan podcast interview, #2281. He is not a nazi. It's incredible to me that this BS has gained so much traction and so many people have jumped on the shit on Elon train. Name one other person who has done more for green energy and to help transition from ICE vehicles to BEVs.

Whether he is or he isn’t, is not the point. He associated himself with the hate symbol of the enemy the US defeated in WWII, at the precise moment when he could have instead ridden a wave of goodwill into the White House. No good CEO would do this to his own brand.

[GuitarStv]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

Nope. I am aware of all that and started a whole thread on Nazis in America. Would love more traction on that because it’s definitely deeper than I realized.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/the-ongoing-problem-of-nazis-in-america-past-and-present/

Not in the mood to be argued with & misunderstood today.

My sole point was that Elon has NOT disavowed Nazis nor apologized for throwing a salute, indeed he has done the opposite and implied Nazis shouldn’t be judged for their “culture”. Further, and perhaps more sinister, he both admires von Braun and then claims to be surprised —years apart— that he’s possibly named after a character in von Braun’s sci-fi novel. This is sinister because it’s clearly a narcissistic lie where he’s pretended more than once to be surprised that his name is associated with Von Braun (regardless of whether or not it’s true that his dad named him for the character).

https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/04/musk-leader-mars/

Can you please let this nonsense go. Elon directly addressed the "salute" in the 10-15 minute-ish mark of his last Joe Rogan podcast interview, #2281. He is not a nazi. It's incredible to me that this BS has gained so much traction and so many people have jumped on the shit on Elon train. Name one other person who has done more for green energy and to help transition from ICE vehicles to BEVs.

Musk also addressed his nazi status by joking about the holocaust via tweet:

Don’t say Hess to Nazi accusations!

Some people will Goebbels anything down!

Stop Gőring your enemies!

His pronouns would’ve been He/Himmler!

Bet you did nazi that coming 😂

- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1882406209187409976


Musk also thrown his support fully behind Germany's AfD party.  The AfD is an extremist organization that uses Nazi slogans and trivializes the holocaust (https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/alternative-germany-afd-party-what-you-need-know).  Musk in a speech just before Germany's Holocaust Rememberance Day told AfD party members that "There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that", also saying "It's good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything".  - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-germany-far-right-afd-remarks-auschwitz-holocaust-remembrance-day/


And Musk's family has a history of support for Nazis.  Errol Musk (Elon's father) said of Elon's maternal grandparents:

They used to support Hitler and all that sort of stuff. But they didn’t know, I don’t think they knew what the Nazis were doing. But they [the grandparents] were in the German Nazi party but in Canada. And they sympathise with the Germans.

- https://mronline.org/2025/01/28/nazi-billionaires/


And of course, there was Musk's response to this on twitter:

Jewish communties have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.

Where Elon said that it was the 'actual truth'.  - https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/media/elon-musk-antisemitism-white-people/index.html




So . . . maybe taken alone, you could argue that Musk's Nazi salute had no meaning.  But taken in context?  I dunno.  Seems tough to let it go as 'nonsense'.  Whatever his deeply held personal convictions, at the very least Musk seems to be intentionally flirting with antisemitism for political reasons.

[NorCal]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

Nope. I am aware of all that and started a whole thread on Nazis in America. Would love more traction on that because it’s definitely deeper than I realized.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/the-ongoing-problem-of-nazis-in-america-past-and-present/

Not in the mood to be argued with & misunderstood today.

My sole point was that Elon has NOT disavowed Nazis nor apologized for throwing a salute, indeed he has done the opposite and implied Nazis shouldn’t be judged for their “culture”. Further, and perhaps more sinister, he both admires von Braun and then claims to be surprised —years apart— that he’s possibly named after a character in von Braun’s sci-fi novel. This is sinister because it’s clearly a narcissistic lie where he’s pretended more than once to be surprised that his name is associated with Von Braun (regardless of whether or not it’s true that his dad named him for the character).

https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/04/musk-leader-mars/

Can you please let this nonsense go. Elon directly addressed the "salute" in the 10-15 minute-ish mark of his last Joe Rogan podcast interview, #2281. He is not a nazi. It's incredible to me that this BS has gained so much traction and so many people have jumped on the shit on Elon train. Name one other person who has done more for green energy and to help transition from ICE vehicles to BEVs.

Musk also addressed his nazi status by joking about the holocaust via tweet:

Don’t say Hess to Nazi accusations!

Some people will Goebbels anything down!

Stop Gőring your enemies!

His pronouns would’ve been He/Himmler!

Bet you did nazi that coming 😂

- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1882406209187409976


Musk also thrown his support fully behind Germany's AfD party.  The AfD is an extremist organization that uses Nazi slogans and trivializes the holocaust (https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/alternative-germany-afd-party-what-you-need-know).  Musk in a speech just before Germany's Holocaust Rememberance Day told AfD party members that "There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that", also saying "It's good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything".  - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-germany-far-right-afd-remarks-auschwitz-holocaust-remembrance-day/


And Musk's family has a history of support for Nazis.  Errol Musk (Elon's father) said of Elon's maternal grandparents:

They used to support Hitler and all that sort of stuff. But they didn’t know, I don’t think they knew what the Nazis were doing. But they [the grandparents] were in the German Nazi party but in Canada. And they sympathise with the Germans.

- https://mronline.org/2025/01/28/nazi-billionaires/


And of course, there was Musk's response to this on twitter:

Jewish communties have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.

Where Elon said that it was the 'actual truth'.  - https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/media/elon-musk-antisemitism-white-people/index.html




So . . . maybe taken alone, you could argue that Musk's Nazi salute had no meaning.  But taken in context?  I dunno.  Seems tough to let it go as 'nonsense'.  Whatever his deeply held personal convictions, at the very least Musk seems to be intentionally flirting with antisemitism for political reasons.

Trump does the same thing.  A half-hearted disavowal combined with a hundred not-quite subtle "I'm with the white supremacists" actions and statements.

Just like when he claimed to not know who the Proud Boys were while simultaneously telling them to "stand back and stand by".  The Proud Boys clearly got the intended message.

It's a communication style designed to telegraph that they are modern white supremacists while giving themselves a public fig-leaf to pretend they're anything but.

It fools some people who want to pretend they're not siding with the white supremacists.  While most people (including the white supremacists) see right through it.

[bacchi]

What is actually bad about Nazis — it wasn't their fashion or their mannerisms, it was the war and genocide.

The whole "Jews thrown into ghettoes" could also be considered bad.

You have to be committing genocide and starting wars [to be a Nazi.]

That's one definition.

[joemandadman189]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

Nope. I am aware of all that and started a whole thread on Nazis in America. Would love more traction on that because it’s definitely deeper than I realized.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/the-ongoing-problem-of-nazis-in-america-past-and-present/

Not in the mood to be argued with & misunderstood today.

My sole point was that Elon has NOT disavowed Nazis nor apologized for throwing a salute, indeed he has done the opposite and implied Nazis shouldn’t be judged for their “culture”. Further, and perhaps more sinister, he both admires von Braun and then claims to be surprised —years apart— that he’s possibly named after a character in von Braun’s sci-fi novel. This is sinister because it’s clearly a narcissistic lie where he’s pretended more than once to be surprised that his name is associated with Von Braun (regardless of whether or not it’s true that his dad named him for the character).

https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/04/musk-leader-mars/

Can you please let this nonsense go. Elon directly addressed the "salute" in the 10-15 minute-ish mark of his last Joe Rogan podcast interview, #2281. He is not a nazi. It's incredible to me that this BS has gained so much traction and so many people have jumped on the shit on Elon train. Name one other person who has done more for green energy and to help transition from ICE vehicles to BEVs.

Musk also addressed his nazi status by joking about the holocaust via tweet:

Don’t say Hess to Nazi accusations!

Some people will Goebbels anything down!

Stop Gőring your enemies!

His pronouns would’ve been He/Himmler!

Bet you did nazi that coming 😂

- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1882406209187409976


Musk also thrown his support fully behind Germany's AfD party.  The AfD is an extremist organization that uses Nazi slogans and trivializes the holocaust (https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/alternative-germany-afd-party-what-you-need-know).  Musk in a speech just before Germany's Holocaust Rememberance Day told AfD party members that "There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that", also saying "It's good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything".  - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-germany-far-right-afd-remarks-auschwitz-holocaust-remembrance-day/


And Musk's family has a history of support for Nazis.  Errol Musk (Elon's father) said of Elon's maternal grandparents:

They used to support Hitler and all that sort of stuff. But they didn’t know, I don’t think they knew what the Nazis were doing. But they [the grandparents] were in the German Nazi party but in Canada. And they sympathise with the Germans.

- https://mronline.org/2025/01/28/nazi-billionaires/


And of course, there was Musk's response to this on twitter:

Jewish communties have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.

Where Elon said that it was the 'actual truth'.  - https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/media/elon-musk-antisemitism-white-people/index.html




So . . . maybe taken alone, you could argue that Musk's Nazi salute had no meaning.  But taken in context?  I dunno.  Seems tough to let it go as 'nonsense'.  Whatever his deeply held personal convictions, at the very least Musk seems to be intentionally flirting with antisemitism for political reasons.

your context is quoting jokes he made, beliefs of his grandparents he barely knew or passed away when he was young, and a speech about being patriotic. I don't think the gesture looked great, i will concede that.

https://youtu.be/XteSVPzL3fk?si=aoiy9-H6TfzWsmcG - Where is the outrage here?

Look, for reference, i am not a nazi, nor do i consider myself a conservative, i voted for Obama, Hillary and Biden and didnt vote in 2024. My belief is this all got blown out of proportion due to Musk's participation in the election and DOGE, which i wish, for his companies sake's wouldn't have. Its only hurt his reputation and brands.

Back to the thread topic, right now Tesla is not a good investment, don't buy the stock.

[GuitarStv]

Musk also addressed his nazi status by joking about the holocaust via tweet:

Don’t say Hess to Nazi accusations!

Some people will Goebbels anything down!

Stop Gőring your enemies!

His pronouns would’ve been He/Himmler!

Bet you did nazi that coming 😂

- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1882406209187409976


Musk also thrown his support fully behind Germany's AfD party.  The AfD is an extremist organization that uses Nazi slogans and trivializes the holocaust (https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/alternative-germany-afd-party-what-you-need-know).  Musk in a speech just before Germany's Holocaust Rememberance Day told AfD party members that "There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that", also saying "It's good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything".  - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-germany-far-right-afd-remarks-auschwitz-holocaust-remembrance-day/


And Musk's family has a history of support for Nazis.  Errol Musk (Elon's father) said of Elon's maternal grandparents:

They used to support Hitler and all that sort of stuff. But they didn’t know, I don’t think they knew what the Nazis were doing. But they [the grandparents] were in the German Nazi party but in Canada. And they sympathise with the Germans.

- https://mronline.org/2025/01/28/nazi-billionaires/


And of course, there was Musk's response to this on twitter:

Jewish communties have been pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.

Where Elon said that it was the 'actual truth'.  - https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/media/elon-musk-antisemitism-white-people/index.html




So . . . maybe taken alone, you could argue that Musk's Nazi salute had no meaning.  But taken in context?  I dunno.  Seems tough to let it go as 'nonsense'.  Whatever his deeply held personal convictions, at the very least Musk seems to be intentionally flirting with antisemitism for political reasons.

your context is quoting jokes he made, beliefs of his grandparents he barely knew or passed away when he was young, and a speech about being patriotic. I don't think the gesture looked great, i will concede that.

https://youtu.be/XteSVPzL3fk?si=aoiy9-H6TfzWsmcG - Where is the outrage here?

Look, for reference, i am not a nazi, nor do i consider myself a conservative, i voted for Obama, Hillary and Biden and didnt vote in 2024. My belief is this all got blown out of proportion due to Musk's participation in the election and DOGE, which i wish, for his companies sake's wouldn't have. Its only hurt his reputation and brands.

Back to the thread topic, right now Tesla is not a good investment, don't buy the stock.

Jokes?  I like a good joke.  I am not seeing a joke in what Musk has said/written.  When Musk agrees that Jewish communities hate whites, which part of that is funny?  Which part of the Holocaust 'jokes' are funny?  What part of providing support to a political group that regularly uses Nazi slogans to recruit people in Germany is funny?  Someone needs to explain the joke to me - guess I'm too dense to get the humour.  Help me out here.

If the Musk thing was a chance one off (like the Tim Walz clip), then I doubt many eyebrows would be raised.  But it wasn't and isn't.  It's part of a long standing pattern of behaviour.

Musk loves to create outrage and uproar, and has repeatedly used references to Nazism for this purpose.  Do I believe that Musk wants to round up Jews and murder them in concentration camps?  No, probably not.  Do I believe that he thinks Nazism and the holocaust are both hilarious and something that should be casually referenced in 'jokes' and imagery on a regular basis?  Yep - hard to argue with his actions.  Do I believe that Musk sees overtly racist groups as more likely to support his push for regime changes around the world?  Yep - again, hard to argue with his actions.

Is this blown out of proportion?  I mean . . . if the CEO of Coke started doing this, I would expect there to be pretty significant blowback for Coke.  If the head of Apple started doing this, I'd expect that Apple's stock would take a big hit.  The blowback against Musk seems to be in proportion to his actions from where I'm sitting.

[ColoradoTribe]

Good video regarding Tesla sales in 2025, among other topics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfZwsgGAeNg

TLDW:

1) Tesla global sales down just 1.7% YOY after first two months of 2025.
2) Announcement of new Model Y 45 days in advance of first deliveries resulted in osbourning of existing Model Y sales as folks wait for refreshed version to buy.
3) Tesla changed production over to new version of Model Y in all four of its factories in Jan and Feb 2025 resulted in lost production. Production and sales rebounding.
4) Despite changeover, Tesla sales in Q1 on pace to exceed Q1 2024 sales in Tesla's largest market (China)
5) Production of two lower cost models this year will increase Tesla's global EV TAM from 5% to 35-40%.
6) Cybercab launch in Austin, TX on schedule for June
7) Roll out of FSD supervised in China has received wide praise and been very successful.

Few other thoughts on....

EV Competition - No other manufacturer with the possible exception of BYD is selling EVs at a profit. How can Ford and GM be competitors if they're losing thousands of dollars on every EV? What happens when Tesla rolls out two new cheaper models this year?

Autonomous Race - The cost to manufacture a Cybercab has been given between $15-$20k. At that price, the Cybercab rolls off the line ready to function as an autonomous vehicle. Ford sells the Mach-e at a loss for $40k (base model). So, any competition to Tesla's Cybercab will need to either purchase EVs or partner to build a comparable EV for $40k or more and then add a suite of sensors; cameras, lidar, etc., plus the labor to install the hardware, in order to turn it into an autonomous vehicle. The cost of Waymo's fifth-generation hardware is reportedly around $100K, which conservatively puts the price of a "competing" AEV at $140k. This is SEVEN times the cost of a Cybercab using the high-end of reported production costs. Tesla has the better, simpler software/AI/vision solution, cheaper autonomous hardware, a huge and growing data advantage, and a cheaper, vertically integrated factory gearing up to produce Cybercabs at a fraction of the cost. Within a few short weeks of starting production there will be more fully autonomous Cybercabs in operation than the entire Waymo fleet of less than 1,000 vehicles.

But hey, keep harping on sales drops of 1.7% (over two months) in the middle of a refresh of Tesla's flagship vehicle and talk about PE ratios relative to Ford. Ya'll have fun and I'll check back in about this time next year.

[waltworks]

Now that's the @ColoradoTribe I remember!

Welcome back, man!

-W

[neo von retorch]

The forecast numbers are always rosey... remember that the Model 3 immediately started producing 500,000 models a year at $35k?

Oh, actually no it sat at $50-60k for the first couple years!

Remember that there are 2 million $40k Cybertrucks on the road!

Oh, actually...

I'm exaggerating a bit, for sure, so please pick away at my anecdotes and numbers.

But $15-20k cybercab. Give me a break 🤣

Also note that as of yesterday Elon Musk returned to Tesla from the White House, and today ColoradoTribe is posting on MMM.

Coincidence?!

[reeshau]

1) Tesla global sales down just 1.7% YOY after first two months of 2025.

This is either a misststement, or a misunderstanding.  You can't get 1.7% down YoY when your largest markets are down double digits. (See below) YoY means comparable periods.

The video estimates that Tesla has lost, so far, 1.7% of annual sales in Jan-Feb.  The premise is that Tesla can make this up, with production of the refreshed Model Y now underway.  This is possible, and I do think media conclusions that the drop is 100% political is conveniently ignoring a factory shutdown situation.

But, Wall Street is forecasting 35% growth this year.  If Q1 sales come in at -10% YoY, to meet that target Tesla would have to have every other quarter be +50%.

[HPstache]

What happens when Tesla rolls out two new cheaper models this year?

Not enough people are going to buy them because the brand has been destroyed.

[GuitarStv]

What happens when Tesla rolls out two new cheaper models this year?

Not enough people are going to buy them because the brand has been destroyed.

You also can't take Musk's word for anything about Tesla.  He regularly stretches the truth to the point of breaking.  Like how fully autonomous Teslas are just around the corner.  And have been announced by Musk that they will go on sale every year for a decade and a half now.  Or how the Tesla semi is years behind schedule (was going to be in full production in 2019.  No, 2020.  I mean, 2021.  Nope, 2022.  2023.
 2024.  OK guys, this time it will be fully in production in 2026).  Or how the Cybertruck was clearly released before being fully tested, and has suffered recall after recall (Cant rail falling off because of glue failure, TPMS Malfunction, Faulty inverter, Rearview display delayed image, Windshield wiper malfunctioning, Sail applique separation, Stuck accelerator pedal, Instrument panel fonts).

So when Musk talks about releasing two new models this year?  Umm.  Maybe, but I wouldn't believe it until I see it.

[NorCal]

1) Tesla global sales down just 1.7% YOY after first two months of 2025.

This is either a misststement, or a misunderstanding.  You can't get 1.7% down YoY when your largest markets are down double digits. (See below) YoY means comparable periods.

The video estimates that Tesla has lost, so far, 1.7% of annual sales in Jan-Feb.  The premise is that Tesla can make this up, with production of the refreshed Model Y now underway.  This is possible, and I do think media conclusions that the drop is 100% political is conveniently ignoring a factory shutdown situation.

But, Wall Street is forecasting 35% growth this year.  If Q1 sales come in at -10% YoY, to meet that target Tesla would have to have every other quarter be +50%.

Agreed.  Those forecasting 35% growth are off their rocker.  But some of the doom & gloom numbers are overstated as well.  The US and China are the ones to really watch, as those are where the big numbers are centered.  Roughly 10% of Tesla's sales are in the EU and 3% are in Canada.  So declines there are material, but aren't going to be devastating.  Simple math says that a ~50% decline in EU sales will impact Tesla's overall sales by 5%.  Bad, but not a disaster.

I'm personally guessing global sales declines of 10-20% for the full year 2025 if we were staying on current trend, and not factoring in tariffs.

The new tariffs (assuming they're not modified or reduced) is going to throw the entire global auto industry into turmoil.  Some brands are simply going to close up shop and not do business in the US.  Some models will no longer be available.  Some key suppliers will go bankrupt, impacting production in the US and abroad in ways that are impossible to predict.  Tesla will be targeted specifically in the trade wars.  But the drop in supply from other brands might mean US customers are buying the few cars available instead of what they actually want to buy.  However, if Tesla is seen to benefit from the tariffs while other manufacturers are doing layoffs, the backlash will be even more massive.

The predictability of trends for any global auto manufacturer just went out the window.  Any "winners" won't be obvious until we have the benefit of hindsight a few years from now.  There will be lots of losers though. 

[ColoradoTribe]

The forecast numbers are always rosey... remember that the Model 3 immediately started producing 500,000 models a year at $35k?

Oh, actually no it sat at $50-60k for the first couple years!

Remember that there are 2 million $40k Cybertrucks on the road!

Oh, actually...

I'm exaggerating a bit, for sure, so please pick away at my anecdotes and numbers.

But $15-20k cybercab. Give me a break

Also note that as of yesterday Elon Musk returned to Tesla from the White House, and today ColoradoTribe is posting on MMM.

Coincidence?!

Tesla COGS per vehicle for Q3 2024 was $35,100 according to this article. I know further reductions in COGS was achieved in Q4.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/10/25/correction-and-confusion-what-are-teslas-next-cheaper-models/

Let's keep in mind this is the average COGS for the entire Tesla fleet, including S and X, CyberTruck, and higher trims of Model 3 and Model Y. Fair to say the COGS for a base Model 3 is currently around $30k, perhaps under.

How does Tesla get from $30k to $20K? For starters, the Cybercab is expected to have roughly 50% fewer parts than a Model 3/Y. How? No steering wheel and ancillary components (turn signal stalks, etc.). Cybercab will use steer-by-wire as already implemented in the CyberTruck. No gas or break pedals or ancillary components. No rear view or side view mirrors and ancillary components like copper wiring, defrosters, and motors. Two seats versus five seats and fewer ancillary components like seat belts and air bags. A smaller cabin to heat and cool (fewer HVAC components). Full implementation of mega-castings and a structural battery pack. Two doors versus four doors. Cybercab lacks the expensive glass roof component found on other Tesla models and will have 3 glass panes compared to 9 glass panes in 3?Y. The cost to add a panoramic glass roof to a production vehicle is around $2k alone. Use of 48 Volt architecture (as done with CT) further reduces production cost by allowing use of smaller, lighter gauge wiring that is cheaper than the wiring currently in Model 3/Y. The production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced and most automated to date, further driving down production cost and reducing production time per vehicle. All this before we even look at reducing discretionary/luxury options like reducing the number of audio speakers, using cheaper/smaller diameter tires, or cheaper (non-leather) seats. Just applying what we know now, Tesla can get to $20k per cab without breaking a sweat or compromising performance. This is just a sampling of the stuff already publicly known for anyone willing to look.

Of course every part eliminated comes with a reduction in vehicle weight, which means the Cybercab can achieve the same range as a Model 3 with a much smaller battery pack, which further reduces vehicle weight. Since the battery pack is the single most expensive component in the vehicle this drives a big drop in COGS. Fewer components also means fewer workers/robots needed on the production line. Less maintenance of the line and less down time. You think Ford and GM are capable of driving this kind of cost reduction, technology advancement, innovation and efficiency?

Ya'll need to do your own homework on this stuff and stop reading financial news headlines. This in an investors forum. I feel badly for anyone making an investment decision regarding TSLA based on the ill-informed nonsense and daily hand-wringing posted to this thread. Most of it posted by folks with axes to grind and no skin in the game.

Edited to add: Do you think Tesla opening its own lithium refinery and co-locating it in the same state where Cybercab will be produced could reduce production costs through further vertical integration? Does anyone know where Ford's lithium refinery is located?

[ColoradoTribe]

What happens when Tesla rolls out two new cheaper models this year?

Not enough people are going to buy them because the brand has been destroyed.

You also can't take Musk's word for anything about Tesla.  He regularly stretches the truth to the point of breaking.  Like how fully autonomous Teslas are just around the corner.  And have been announced by Musk that they will go on sale every year for a decade and a half now.  Or how the Tesla semi is years behind schedule (was going to be in full production in 2019.  No, 2020.  I mean, 2021.  Nope, 2022.  2023.
 2024.  OK guys, this time it will be fully in production in 2026).  Or how the Cybertruck was clearly released before being fully tested, and has suffered recall after recall (Cant rail falling off because of glue failure, TPMS Malfunction, Faulty inverter, Rearview display delayed image, Windshield wiper malfunctioning, Sail applique separation, Stuck accelerator pedal, Instrument panel fonts).

So when Musk talks about releasing two new models this year?  Umm.  Maybe, but I wouldn't believe it until I see it.

Says the same folks that called the Model 3 vaporware a decade ago or said the CyberTruck would never be made or that you can't land and reuse a rocket.

[neo von retorch]

Based on it costing Tesla $35k to build a car, they can easily sell a car for $15-20k by dropping a few parts.

OK, even if we accept everything else you say and they get COGS for the Cybercab to $20k... what will they sell it for? Remembering that "production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced" <-- this part doesn't come for free.

Looks like ~2024 actual Average Selling Price was ~$40K? So they charge $5k over the $35k COGS for 14% margin? So Cybercab would then be a $23k vehicle if everything aligns and they get COGS to $20k?

[Kapyarn]

If Musk ends up controlling the federal government, what is to stop a mandate for all federal agencies to use Tesla vehicles.  That would be quite a large market...

[NorCal]

The forecast numbers are always rosey... remember that the Model 3 immediately started producing 500,000 models a year at $35k?

Oh, actually no it sat at $50-60k for the first couple years!

Remember that there are 2 million $40k Cybertrucks on the road!

Oh, actually...

I'm exaggerating a bit, for sure, so please pick away at my anecdotes and numbers.

But $15-20k cybercab. Give me a break 🤣

Also note that as of yesterday Elon Musk returned to Tesla from the White House, and today ColoradoTribe is posting on MMM.

Coincidence?!

Tesla COGS per vehicle for Q3 2024 was $35,100 according to this article. I know further reductions in COGS was achieved in Q4.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/10/25/correction-and-confusion-what-are-teslas-next-cheaper-models/

Let's keep in mind this is the average COGS for the entire Tesla fleet, including S and X, CyberTruck, and higher trims of Model 3 and Model Y. Fair to say the COGS for a base Model 3 is currently around $30k, perhaps under.

How does Tesla get from $30k to $20K? For starters, the Cybercab is expected to have roughly 50% fewer parts than a Model 3/Y. How? No steering wheel and ancillary components (turn signal stalks, etc.). Cybercab will use steer-by-wire as already implemented in the CyberTruck. No gas or break pedals or ancillary components. No rear view or side view mirrors and ancillary components like copper wiring, defrosters, and motors. Two seats versus five seats and fewer ancillary components like seat belts and air bags. A smaller cabin to heat and cool (fewer HVAC components). Full implementation of mega-castings and a structural battery pack. Two doors versus four doors. Cybercab lacks the expensive glass roof component found on other Tesla models and will have 3 glass panes compared to 9 glass panes in 3?Y. The cost to add a panoramic glass roof to a production vehicle is around $2k alone. Use of 48 Volt architecture (as done with CT) further reduces production cost by allowing use of smaller, lighter gauge wiring that is cheaper than the wiring currently in Model 3/Y. The production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced and most automated to date, further driving down production cost and reducing production time per vehicle. All this before we even look at reducing discretionary/luxury options like reducing the number of audio speakers, using cheaper/smaller diameter tires, or cheaper (non-leather) seats. Just applying what we know now, Tesla can get to $20k per cab without breaking a sweat or compromising performance. This is just a sampling of the stuff already publicly known for anyone willing to look.

Of course every part eliminated comes with a reduction in vehicle weight, which means the Cybercab can achieve the same range as a Model 3 with a much smaller battery pack, which further reduces vehicle weight. Since the battery pack is the single most expensive component in the vehicle this drives a big drop in COGS. Fewer components also means fewer workers/robots needed on the production line. Less maintenance of the line and less down time. You think Ford and GM are capable of driving this kind of cost reduction, technology advancement, innovation and efficiency?

Ya'll need to do your own homework on this stuff and stop reading financial news headlines. This in an investors forum. I feel badly for anyone making an investment decision regarding TSLA based on the ill-informed none-sense and daily hand-wringing posted to this thread. Most of it posted by folks with axes to grind and no skin in the game.

I don't think you want to dive too deep into the margin story.  Gross margins are rapidly declining, and are on trend to converge with the rest of the automotive industry. 

A decent component of this is related to the inner workings of cost accounting.  Tesla's CAPEX is still ongoing as if the company were growing at 30%+.  Their 2024 CAPEX is going to add about $800M-$1B in 2025 COGS, regardless of sales volume.  It could possibly be much higher if their CAPEX is more heavily related towards AI type efforts, as computer equipment depreciates much faster than factories. 

Assuming flat sales volumes, their 2024 CAPEX will reduce gross margins by roughly a percentage point.  It would be less on a percentage basis with sales growth, but it will be higher on a percentage basis if sales decline. 

Steel and aluminum tariffs are also hitting all US automakers hard.  Information is hard to come by, but other industries are reporting that their metals costs instantly went up ~30% the day tariffs were announced.  Automotive is probably slightly less impacted due to long term contracts and a heavier US presence, but this is still only downward pressure on margins industry wide.  There's no magic software patch for bill of material costs.

[ColoradoTribe]

The forecast numbers are always rosey... remember that the Model 3 immediately started producing 500,000 models a year at $35k?

Oh, actually no it sat at $50-60k for the first couple years!

Remember that there are 2 million $40k Cybertrucks on the road!

Oh, actually...

I'm exaggerating a bit, for sure, so please pick away at my anecdotes and numbers.

But $15-20k cybercab. Give me a break 🤣

Also note that as of yesterday Elon Musk returned to Tesla from the White House, and today ColoradoTribe is posting on MMM.

Coincidence?!

Tesla COGS per vehicle for Q3 2024 was $35,100 according to this article. I know further reductions in COGS was achieved in Q4.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/10/25/correction-and-confusion-what-are-teslas-next-cheaper-models/

Let's keep in mind this is the average COGS for the entire Tesla fleet, including S and X, CyberTruck, and higher trims of Model 3 and Model Y. Fair to say the COGS for a base Model 3 is currently around $30k, perhaps under.

How does Tesla get from $30k to $20K? For starters, the Cybercab is expected to have roughly 50% fewer parts than a Model 3/Y. How? No steering wheel and ancillary components (turn signal stalks, etc.). Cybercab will use steer-by-wire as already implemented in the CyberTruck. No gas or break pedals or ancillary components. No rear view or side view mirrors and ancillary components like copper wiring, defrosters, and motors. Two seats versus five seats and fewer ancillary components like seat belts and air bags. A smaller cabin to heat and cool (fewer HVAC components). Full implementation of mega-castings and a structural battery pack. Two doors versus four doors. Cybercab lacks the expensive glass roof component found on other Tesla models and will have 3 glass panes compared to 9 glass panes in 3?Y. The cost to add a panoramic glass roof to a production vehicle is around $2k alone. Use of 48 Volt architecture (as done with CT) further reduces production cost by allowing use of smaller, lighter gauge wiring that is cheaper than the wiring currently in Model 3/Y. The production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced and most automated to date, further driving down production cost and reducing production time per vehicle. All this before we even look at reducing discretionary/luxury options like reducing the number of audio speakers, using cheaper/smaller diameter tires, or cheaper (non-leather) seats. Just applying what we know now, Tesla can get to $20k per cab without breaking a sweat or compromising performance. This is just a sampling of the stuff already publicly known for anyone willing to look.

Of course every part eliminated comes with a reduction in vehicle weight, which means the Cybercab can achieve the same range as a Model 3 with a much smaller battery pack, which further reduces vehicle weight. Since the battery pack is the single most expensive component in the vehicle this drives a big drop in COGS. Fewer components also means fewer workers/robots needed on the production line. Less maintenance of the line and less down time. You think Ford and GM are capable of driving this kind of cost reduction, technology advancement, innovation and efficiency?

Ya'll need to do your own homework on this stuff and stop reading financial news headlines. This in an investors forum. I feel badly for anyone making an investment decision regarding TSLA based on the ill-informed none-sense and daily hand-wringing posted to this thread. Most of it posted by folks with axes to grind and no skin in the game.

I don't think you want to dive too deep into the margin story.  Gross margins are rapidly declining, and are on trend to converge with the rest of the automotive industry. 

A decent component of this is related to the inner workings of cost accounting.  Tesla's CAPEX is still ongoing as if the company were growing at 30%+.  Their 2024 CAPEX is going to add about $800M-$1B in 2025 COGS, regardless of sales volume.  It could possibly be much higher if their CAPEX is more heavily related towards AI type efforts, as computer equipment depreciates much faster than factories. 

Assuming flat sales volumes, their 2024 CAPEX will reduce gross margins by roughly a percentage point.  It would be less on a percentage basis with sales growth, but it will be higher on a percentage basis if sales decline. 

Steel and aluminum tariffs are also hitting all US automakers hard.  Information is hard to come by, but other industries are reporting that their metals costs instantly went up ~30% the day tariffs were announced.  Automotive is probably slightly less impacted due to long term contracts and a heavier US presence, but this is still only downward pressure on margins industry wide.  There's no magic software patch for bill of material costs.

The word margin does not appear once in my post that you quoted. We are talking about production costs and COGS and if Tesla can manufacture a Cybercab for the stated $15k-$$20k. Feel free to join that discussion or start a new post about margins. Be sure to discuss the EV margins of Tesla's so called competitors when you do. Be sure to also mention that Tesla has the most American made car in terms of percentage of the vehicle parts sourced from inside the US, making Tesla best positioned to weather a trade war.

CapEx is dedicated to fueling the next revenue growth wave with expenditures related to Cybercab, Optimus robot, semi production plant, and AI capabilities. Exactly what a long term investor would want and expect from a growth company in the tech sector.

[HPstache]

The forecast numbers are always rosey... remember that the Model 3 immediately started producing 500,000 models a year at $35k?

Oh, actually no it sat at $50-60k for the first couple years!

Remember that there are 2 million $40k Cybertrucks on the road!

Oh, actually...

I'm exaggerating a bit, for sure, so please pick away at my anecdotes and numbers.

But $15-20k cybercab. Give me a break 🤣

Also note that as of yesterday Elon Musk returned to Tesla from the White House, and today ColoradoTribe is posting on MMM.

Coincidence?!

Tesla COGS per vehicle for Q3 2024 was $35,100 according to this article. I know further reductions in COGS was achieved in Q4.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/10/25/correction-and-confusion-what-are-teslas-next-cheaper-models/

Let's keep in mind this is the average COGS for the entire Tesla fleet, including S and X, CyberTruck, and higher trims of Model 3 and Model Y. Fair to say the COGS for a base Model 3 is currently around $30k, perhaps under.

How does Tesla get from $30k to $20K? For starters, the Cybercab is expected to have roughly 50% fewer parts than a Model 3/Y. How? No steering wheel and ancillary components (turn signal stalks, etc.). Cybercab will use steer-by-wire as already implemented in the CyberTruck. No gas or break pedals or ancillary components. No rear view or side view mirrors and ancillary components like copper wiring, defrosters, and motors. Two seats versus five seats and fewer ancillary components like seat belts and air bags. A smaller cabin to heat and cool (fewer HVAC components). Full implementation of mega-castings and a structural battery pack. Two doors versus four doors. Cybercab lacks the expensive glass roof component found on other Tesla models and will have 3 glass panes compared to 9 glass panes in 3?Y. The cost to add a panoramic glass roof to a production vehicle is around $2k alone. Use of 48 Volt architecture (as done with CT) further reduces production cost by allowing use of smaller, lighter gauge wiring that is cheaper than the wiring currently in Model 3/Y. The production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced and most automated to date, further driving down production cost and reducing production time per vehicle. All this before we even look at reducing discretionary/luxury options like reducing the number of audio speakers, using cheaper/smaller diameter tires, or cheaper (non-leather) seats. Just applying what we know now, Tesla can get to $20k per cab without breaking a sweat or compromising performance. This is just a sampling of the stuff already publicly known for anyone willing to look.

Of course every part eliminated comes with a reduction in vehicle weight, which means the Cybercab can achieve the same range as a Model 3 with a much smaller battery pack, which further reduces vehicle weight. Since the battery pack is the single most expensive component in the vehicle this drives a big drop in COGS. Fewer components also means fewer workers/robots needed on the production line. Less maintenance of the line and less down time. You think Ford and GM are capable of driving this kind of cost reduction, technology advancement, innovation and efficiency?

Ya'll need to do your own homework on this stuff and stop reading financial news headlines. This in an investors forum. I feel badly for anyone making an investment decision regarding TSLA based on the ill-informed none-sense and daily hand-wringing posted to this thread. Most of it posted by folks with axes to grind and no skin in the game.

I don't think you want to dive too deep into the margin story.  Gross margins are rapidly declining, and are on trend to converge with the rest of the automotive industry. 

A decent component of this is related to the inner workings of cost accounting.  Tesla's CAPEX is still ongoing as if the company were growing at 30%+.  Their 2024 CAPEX is going to add about $800M-$1B in 2025 COGS, regardless of sales volume.  It could possibly be much higher if their CAPEX is more heavily related towards AI type efforts, as computer equipment depreciates much faster than factories. 

Assuming flat sales volumes, their 2024 CAPEX will reduce gross margins by roughly a percentage point.  It would be less on a percentage basis with sales growth, but it will be higher on a percentage basis if sales decline. 

Steel and aluminum tariffs are also hitting all US automakers hard.  Information is hard to come by, but other industries are reporting that their metals costs instantly went up ~30% the day tariffs were announced.  Automotive is probably slightly less impacted due to long term contracts and a heavier US presence, but this is still only downward pressure on margins industry wide.  There's no magic software patch for bill of material costs.

The word margin does not appear once in my post that you quoted. We are talking about production costs and COGS and if Tesla can manufacture a Cybercab for the stated $15k-$$20k. Feel free to join that discussion or start a new post about margins. Be sure to discuss the EV margins of Tesla's so called competitors when you do. Be sure to also mention that Tesla has the most American made car in terms of percentage of the vehicle parts sourced from inside the US, making Tesla best positioned to weather a trade war.

CapEx is dedicated to fueling the next revenue growth wave with expenditures related to Cybercab, Optimus robot, semi production plant, and AI capabilities. Exactly what a long term investor would want and expect from a growth company in the tech sector.

Can you at least touch on the current reputation hit that Tesla has taken over the last 2 months or so?  I enjoy your perspective, but I feel like ignoring the fact that a large population now views Tesla as an evil company that they do not want anything to do with.  I just don't see how Tesla recovers from this and it's unfortunate because they have done so much for making electric cars "cool" and accessible to consumers.

[ColoradoTribe]

Based on it costing Tesla $35k to build a car, they can easily sell a car for $15-20k by dropping a few parts.

OK, even if we accept everything else you say and they get COGS for the Cybercab to $20k... what will they sell it for? Remembering that "production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced" <-- this part doesn't come for free.

Looks like ~2024 actual Average Selling Price was ~$40K? So they charge $5k over the $35k COGS for 14% margin? So Cybercab would then be a $23k vehicle if everything aligns and they get COGS to $20k?

No need to take my word on anything. Everything I state in my post is publicly available information and verifiable. Dig in.

Sell it!? Why would Tesla sell a money printing machine that will recoup the cost of production in a matter of months? First priority will be owning and operating their own fleet of Tesla Cybercabs. Sales will come later, if at all, after the economics of the Cybercab are proven out.

[bacchi]

1) Tesla global sales down just 1.7% YOY after first two months of 2025.

This is either a misststement, or a misunderstanding.  You can't get 1.7% down YoY when your largest markets are down double digits. (See below) YoY means comparable periods.

The video estimates that Tesla has lost, so far, 1.7% of annual sales in Jan-Feb.  The premise is that Tesla can make this up, with production of the refreshed Model Y now underway.  This is possible, and I do think media conclusions that the drop is 100% political is conveniently ignoring a factory shutdown situation.

But, Wall Street is forecasting 35% growth this year.  If Q1 sales come in at -10% YoY, to meet that target Tesla would have to have every other quarter be +50%.

It looks like, in China, Tesla is now only 0.6% off YoY as of the 23rd. China sales will almost certainly beat Q1 2024 but even if China did buy enough (18k?) this week, it's not going to be enough to make up for decreased Schengen/US sales.

Sales in Norway (teslastats.no) have increased this month too but it'll still be below March 2024 unless there's a huge weekend sales event (One weekend only!). Over the quarter YoY, .no sales will be down 25-30%.

And -1.7% annual is about...-7% YoY.

[jnw]

But von Braun rejected Nazism after coming to the US via Operation Paperclip, and his connection to/membership in the Nazi party was not widely known until after his death. Unlike Elon’s.

Oh, so when he came to the USA, he rejected Nazism so everything was totes ok?

"Regarding slave labor, von Braun’s work on the V-2 relied heavily on it. The rockets were produced at facilities like the Mittelwerk factory, part of the Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp complex, where tens of thousands of forced laborers—prisoners, Jews, and others—worked under brutal conditions. Estimates suggest that around 20,000 laborers died due to exhaustion, malnutrition, or execution during the production process. Von Braun was aware of these conditions; he visited the Mittelwerk site multiple times and, in some instances, personally requested labor from concentration camps, as documented in surviving correspondence."

Nope. I am aware of all that and started a whole thread on Nazis in America. Would love more traction on that because it’s definitely deeper than I realized.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/the-ongoing-problem-of-nazis-in-america-past-and-present/

Not in the mood to be argued with & misunderstood today.

My sole point was that Elon has NOT disavowed Nazis nor apologized for throwing a salute, indeed he has done the opposite and implied Nazis shouldn’t be judged for their “culture”. Further, and perhaps more sinister, he both admires von Braun and then claims to be surprised —years apart— that he’s possibly named after a character in von Braun’s sci-fi novel. This is sinister because it’s clearly a narcissistic lie where he’s pretended more than once to be surprised that his name is associated with Von Braun (regardless of whether or not it’s true that his dad named him for the character).

https://www.snopes.com/news/2025/02/04/musk-leader-mars/

Can you please let this nonsense go. Elon directly addressed the "salute" in the 10-15 minute-ish mark of his last Joe Rogan podcast interview, #2281. He is not a nazi. It's incredible to me that this BS has gained so much traction and so many people have jumped on the shit on Elon train. Name one other person who has done more for green energy and to help transition from ICE vehicles to BEVs.

Elon is a POS that is destroying the country.  Destroying it piece by piece.  His salute was a forceful and debiliberate Sieg Heil salute.  He's advocated for far right fascist parties in Germany as well. It's very obvious he's a hateful POS fascist who's destroying this country. He even hates his own daughter.

Half the crap that comes out of Elon's mouth or lies or conspiracy theories as well, just like Trump.

There's good reason why people are now calling Teslas "Swasticars".

[ColoradoTribe]

The forecast numbers are always rosey... remember that the Model 3 immediately started producing 500,000 models a year at $35k?

Oh, actually no it sat at $50-60k for the first couple years!

Remember that there are 2 million $40k Cybertrucks on the road!

Oh, actually...

I'm exaggerating a bit, for sure, so please pick away at my anecdotes and numbers.

But $15-20k cybercab. Give me a break 🤣

Also note that as of yesterday Elon Musk returned to Tesla from the White House, and today ColoradoTribe is posting on MMM.

Coincidence?!

Tesla COGS per vehicle for Q3 2024 was $35,100 according to this article. I know further reductions in COGS was achieved in Q4.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/10/25/correction-and-confusion-what-are-teslas-next-cheaper-models/

Let's keep in mind this is the average COGS for the entire Tesla fleet, including S and X, CyberTruck, and higher trims of Model 3 and Model Y. Fair to say the COGS for a base Model 3 is currently around $30k, perhaps under.

How does Tesla get from $30k to $20K? For starters, the Cybercab is expected to have roughly 50% fewer parts than a Model 3/Y. How? No steering wheel and ancillary components (turn signal stalks, etc.). Cybercab will use steer-by-wire as already implemented in the CyberTruck. No gas or break pedals or ancillary components. No rear view or side view mirrors and ancillary components like copper wiring, defrosters, and motors. Two seats versus five seats and fewer ancillary components like seat belts and air bags. A smaller cabin to heat and cool (fewer HVAC components). Full implementation of mega-castings and a structural battery pack. Two doors versus four doors. Cybercab lacks the expensive glass roof component found on other Tesla models and will have 3 glass panes compared to 9 glass panes in 3?Y. The cost to add a panoramic glass roof to a production vehicle is around $2k alone. Use of 48 Volt architecture (as done with CT) further reduces production cost by allowing use of smaller, lighter gauge wiring that is cheaper than the wiring currently in Model 3/Y. The production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced and most automated to date, further driving down production cost and reducing production time per vehicle. All this before we even look at reducing discretionary/luxury options like reducing the number of audio speakers, using cheaper/smaller diameter tires, or cheaper (non-leather) seats. Just applying what we know now, Tesla can get to $20k per cab without breaking a sweat or compromising performance. This is just a sampling of the stuff already publicly known for anyone willing to look.

Of course every part eliminated comes with a reduction in vehicle weight, which means the Cybercab can achieve the same range as a Model 3 with a much smaller battery pack, which further reduces vehicle weight. Since the battery pack is the single most expensive component in the vehicle this drives a big drop in COGS. Fewer components also means fewer workers/robots needed on the production line. Less maintenance of the line and less down time. You think Ford and GM are capable of driving this kind of cost reduction, technology advancement, innovation and efficiency?

Ya'll need to do your own homework on this stuff and stop reading financial news headlines. This in an investors forum. I feel badly for anyone making an investment decision regarding TSLA based on the ill-informed none-sense and daily hand-wringing posted to this thread. Most of it posted by folks with axes to grind and no skin in the game.

I don't think you want to dive too deep into the margin story.  Gross margins are rapidly declining, and are on trend to converge with the rest of the automotive industry. 

A decent component of this is related to the inner workings of cost accounting.  Tesla's CAPEX is still ongoing as if the company were growing at 30%+.  Their 2024 CAPEX is going to add about $800M-$1B in 2025 COGS, regardless of sales volume.  It could possibly be much higher if their CAPEX is more heavily related towards AI type efforts, as computer equipment depreciates much faster than factories. 

Assuming flat sales volumes, their 2024 CAPEX will reduce gross margins by roughly a percentage point.  It would be less on a percentage basis with sales growth, but it will be higher on a percentage basis if sales decline. 

Steel and aluminum tariffs are also hitting all US automakers hard.  Information is hard to come by, but other industries are reporting that their metals costs instantly went up ~30% the day tariffs were announced.  Automotive is probably slightly less impacted due to long term contracts and a heavier US presence, but this is still only downward pressure on margins industry wide.  There's no magic software patch for bill of material costs.

The word margin does not appear once in my post that you quoted. We are talking about production costs and COGS and if Tesla can manufacture a Cybercab for the stated $15k-$$20k. Feel free to join that discussion or start a new post about margins. Be sure to discuss the EV margins of Tesla's so called competitors when you do. Be sure to also mention that Tesla has the most American made car in terms of percentage of the vehicle parts sourced from inside the US, making Tesla best positioned to weather a trade war.

CapEx is dedicated to fueling the next revenue growth wave with expenditures related to Cybercab, Optimus robot, semi production plant, and AI capabilities. Exactly what a long term investor would want and expect from a growth company in the tech sector.

Can you at least touch on the current reputation hit that Tesla has taken over the last 2 months or so?  I enjoy your perspective, but I feel like ignoring the fact that a large population now views Tesla as an evil company that they do not want anything to do with.  I just don't see how Tesla recovers from this and it's unfortunate because they have done so much for making electric cars "cool" and accessible to consumers.

Fair. I lean left and would never vote for Trump. I disapprove of nearly everything Elon says and does from a political perspective. There is no denying Tesla has taken a reputational hit. What is far less certain is how much that reputational hit will affect car sales. As discussed above, March numbers to date would suggest China sales have not been affected at all and have rebounded fully then some following the refresh. European sales are also rebounding after the refresh. Also unknown is how many new potential buyers are being drawn in by Trump's endorsement of Tesla. Is Trump giving conservatives permission to buy an EV? Given that Optimus, semi, Cybercab, etc. are just around the corner, how much does an incremental drop in conventional car sales really matter?

All that said, if Elon's political engagement and antics do appreciable harm to Tesla sales (YOY after refresh) then I am in favor of him being removed as CEO by the Board. He could assume a behind-the-scenes role as chief of engineering or such. I think his removal as CEO would be sufficient for all but the most ardent of political adherents on the left.

[reeshau]

Based on it costing Tesla $35k to build a car, they can easily sell a car for $15-20k by dropping a few parts.

OK, even if we accept everything else you say and they get COGS for the Cybercab to $20k... what will they sell it for? Remembering that "production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced" <-- this part doesn't come for free.

Looks like ~2024 actual Average Selling Price was ~$40K? So they charge $5k over the $35k COGS for 14% margin? So Cybercab would then be a $23k vehicle if everything aligns and they get COGS to $20k?

No need to take my word on anything. Everything I state in my post is publicly available information and verifiable. Dig in.

Sell it!? Why would Tesla sell a money printing machine that will recoup the cost of production in a matter of months? First priority will be owning and operating their own fleet of Tesla Cybercabs. Sales will come later, if at all, after the economics of the Cybercab are proven out.

I think this is an important point.  Cybercabs are not vehicles in the consumer small car segment.  If Tesla is going to operate the cybercab network, that means the revenue on Day 1 is $0.  And the promised launch scope is...Austin?

There aren't enough cabs / ubers in Austin for Tesla to replace, to make a meaningful revenue impact.  Waymo operates in LA, San Fran, and Phoenix, and is going to DC, with a fleet of 700.  Scaling up a new cab company requires a lot more than the vehicles: they need regulatory approval, facilities, and people.  So, if this was 3 months from launch, wouldn't we be hearing about more markets, to scale to mass production?

Or, maybe Tesla is being cautious, this one time.  While I would applaud a considered testing approach, it's totally against Tesla's character.

Tesla has said they view individuals or commercial enterprises owning the assets they operate.  But it's hard to see that without some data on the payback.  At the very least, the price will be impacted by the risk being taken on.

So, either scaling up (eating production cost, then having to compete for ride revenue) or a small start (Austin as test, where to go next?) looks to me like Tesla is a long way off from Cybercab being a profitable enterprise.

[ColoradoTribe]

Based on it costing Tesla $35k to build a car, they can easily sell a car for $15-20k by dropping a few parts.

OK, even if we accept everything else you say and they get COGS for the Cybercab to $20k... what will they sell it for? Remembering that "production line for Cybercab will also be Tesla's most advanced" <-- this part doesn't come for free.

Looks like ~2024 actual Average Selling Price was ~$40K? So they charge $5k over the $35k COGS for 14% margin? So Cybercab would then be a $23k vehicle if everything aligns and they get COGS to $20k?

No need to take my word on anything. Everything I state in my post is publicly available information and verifiable. Dig in.

Sell it!? Why would Tesla sell a money printing machine that will recoup the cost of production in a matter of months? First priority will be owning and operating their own fleet of Tesla Cybercabs. Sales will come later, if at all, after the economics of the Cybercab are proven out.

I think this is an important point.  Cybercabs are not vehicles in the consumer small car segment.  If Tesla is going to operate the cybercab network, that means the revenue on Day 1 is $0.  And the promised launch scope is...Austin?

There aren't enough cabs / ubers in Austin for Tesla to replace, to make a meaningful revenue impact.  Waymo operates in LA, San Fran, and Phoenix, and is going to DC, with a fleet of 700.  Scaling up a new cab company requires a lot more than the vehicles: they need regulatory approval, facilities, and people.  So, if this was 3 months from launch, wouldn't we be hearing about more markets, to scale to mass production?

Or, maybe Tesla is being cautious, this one time.  While I would applaud a considered testing approach, it's totally against Tesla's character.

Tesla has said they view individuals or commercial enterprises owning the assets they operate.  But it's hard to see that without some data on the payback.  At the very least, the price will be impacted by the risk being taken on.

So, either scaling up (eating production cost, then having to compete for ride revenue) or a small start (Austin as test, where to go next?) looks to me like Tesla is a long way off from Cybercab being a profitable enterprise.

I'm not sure what the concern is based on what you are expressing here? Tesla has regulatory approval to operate a Cybercab network in Austin starting in June. How many vehicles is rather irrelevant at this stage. They will use Austin to work out kinks and as proof of concept. In the meantime, a Cybercab production line is underway in the Austin Gigafactory. Once Tesla is satisfied with the Austin trial results, they will expand to other cities and fire up mass production. At this stage, the number of Tesla Cybercabs surpasses the number of Waymos in a matter or weeks.

Tesla is cash flow positive and sitting on billions (16B+ end of Q4). It does not matter that they have to front the cost of each Cybercab ($15-$20k). Those vehicles will pay for themselves in less than a year and then start generating revenue for Tesla to build more Cybercabs (snowball rolling downhill at this point).

Reminder here that every Tesla with HW4 or better also becomes a cybercab for its owner the day unsupervised FSD is approved on a state or federal level. Additionally, unlike Waymo, Tesla doesn't have to GPS map and geofence each new service area. Tesla's vision + neural net FSD model will enable a new cybercab to operate anywhere in the US just like any human driver in the US is capable of flying into a city they've never visited before and operate a car safely.

One final point is that Tesla will be recognizing differed FSD revenue in this quarter and subsequent quarters from those who purchased FSD with their vehicle. As features are enabled and entire countries, like China and Australia, allow supervised FSD, Tesla can recognize a large chunk of that deferred revenue, boosting margins. As FSD improves, more owners will pay the $100/month subscription fee. My experience with the latest version is that it already reduces the stress of everyday driving even if I have to stay ready to intervene. I will buy a subscription before my next road trip.

Are you saying you think Tesla will go broke making Cybercabs before those cabs produce positive revenue for Tesla? If so, I'd say the chances of that are zero.

[neo von retorch]

Are you saying you think Tesla will go broke making Cybercabs before those cabs produce positive revenue for Tesla? If so, I'd say the chances of that are zero.

What was the investment to R&D, build tooling, and produce the Cybertruck, and what is their current ROI?

What are the assumptions on Cybercab ROI?

e.g. $0.10 / mile driven, 20,000 miles per year, so $2000 or 10% ROI every year?

[reeshau]

I'm not sure what the concern is based on what you are expressing here? Tesla has regulatory approval to operate a Cybercab network in Austin starting in June.

Are you saying you think Tesla will go broke making Cybercabs before those cabs produce positive revenue for Tesla? If so, I'd say the chances of that are zero.

My point is not that cybercab will be the death of Tesla,  But rather, it will be a cash drain for some time.  It will not help margin compression.

Are the existing Teslas on the road good for cybercab earnings, or bad?  Seems like it will reduce demand for the dedicated vehicles, wherever they are.

And while you may have a current fleet, Austin is the only announced regulatory approval.  One city will not contribute meaningfully.  Again, sincere kudos to Tesla to take this one cautiously--I applaud the change in behavior vs. launch and patch.  But where are the next cities?  It all takes time.  Will they build and park cybercabs, anticipating regulatory approval?  Or will the line run significantly under capacity, until more markets are opened up?  Either way seems to be a cash drain.

[Fru-Gal]

Relying exclusively on vision and “neural nets” is a laughable strategy.

Would you fly in a commercial jet if reassured that it was being piloted with a vision system and neural nets exclusively?

Let’s think about things that navigate beyond cars. Things like defense systems, submarines, planes, trains you need multiple instruments and sensors in order to ascertain your surroundings when visibility is problematic, or there are other difficult conditions. once again musk is hamstrung by his hubris. He has created a brilliant infallible system — that does not even work right now. Meanwhile, Waymo is using lidar, radar, vision and human oversight — and has several years of real world experience.

I do think the idea that every individual Tesla would become a cyber cab for the owner is a compelling thought experiment. But I don’t think there’s any proof that that can happen as the cars are currently instrumented.

[ColoradoTribe]

Are you saying you think Tesla will go broke making Cybercabs before those cabs produce positive revenue for Tesla? If so, I'd say the chances of that are zero.

What was the investment to R&D, build tooling, and produce the Cybertruck, and what is their current ROI?

What are the assumptions on Cybercab ROI?

e.g. $0.10 / mile driven, 20,000 miles per year, so $2000 or 10% ROI every year?

The average cost of an Uber ride in the US is $2/mile. Let's assume a Cybercab undercuts this at $1.50/mile average. A Cybercab can operate 16 hours a day, leaving 8 hrs for recharging, maintenance and down time. Let's assume an average speed of 35 mph. So,  16hrs x 35 mph = 560 miles/day x 7days/week x 52 weeks = 203k miles/yr. Let's be super conservative and assume suboptimal utilization and each Cybercab does 100k billable miles per year. At $1.50/mile that's $150k in revenue per Cybercab per year. Fuel cost is roughly $0.15 per KwH. Cybercab gets 6 miles per KwH. So, annual fuel cost is $2,500 (assuming Tesla does provide their own energy via solar). Upkeep on a Cybercab is minimal. Cordless charging pads and robotic car cleaners take care of refueling and cleaning while charging. Maintenance cost is near zero. No scheduled maintenance in year one for a Tesla. Maybe some wiper fluid and one set of new tires. Let's put fueling, cleaning, registration fees and maintenance cost in year one at $5,000. Feel free to double that to $10k, it doesn't matter.

So, a Cybercab with a production cost of $15k rolls off the line and is accepting passengers the next day in Austin. In year 1 it generates $150k in revenue and costs $5k to operate, netting $145k for Tesla in year one. A nearly 10X ROI in the first year. The cab would pay for itself in under 2 months and produce enough profit in year 1 to build 6 additional Cybercabs.

Here's a question though. Why are you questioning the economics of the Cybercab on an investor forum and asking others to do research that you could have done on your own before posting shade about the product?

Anyone still not understand why Tesla trades at a multiple compared to Ford or GM? No one will compete with a fully autonomous Tesla Cybercab on the all-important metric of price per mile.

It's less a question of if and more a question of when. Once FSD unsupervised gets regulatory approval, no one will buy a car in the US that doesn't come with FSD capability, which means every car company will need to either license Tesla's software or spend billions trying to create their AI capabilities and a data set of billions of miles driven to train their own neural net. Regulatory approval is a given once insurance companies and regulators see data showing how many lives and dollars FSD saves.

It's game over. Waymo can't compete when the cost of their vehicle is at least $150k or 10X the cost of the Cybercab.

Note: Tesla will also get to claim depreciation on each Cybercab further improving the economics.

[ColoradoTribe]

Relying exclusively on vision and “neural nets” is a laughable strategy.

Would you fly in a commercial jet if reassured that it was being piloted with a vision system and neural nets exclusively?

Let’s think about things that navigate beyond cars. Things like defense systems, submarines, planes, trains you need multiple instruments and sensors in order to ascertain your surroundings when visibility is problematic, or there are other difficult conditions. once again musk is hamstrung by his hubris. He has created a brilliant infallible system — that does not even work right now. Meanwhile, Waymo is using lidar, radar, vision and human oversight — and has several years of real world experience.

I do think the idea that every individual Tesla would become a cyber cab for the owner is a compelling thought experiment. But I don’t think there’s any proof that that can happen as the cars are currently instrumented.

Have you ridden in a Tesla operating under FSD supervised? I have.

How do you drive a car? You use vision (eyeballs) and a neural net (brain) to operate the car. Same as Tesla, except the AI is never emotional, or tired, or drunk, or distracted, or sleepy, or get s a leg cramp. The neural net also has the advantage of billions of miles of collective driving experience and 9 cameras (or nine sets of eyeballs) constantly surveying blind spots and approaching traffic. And reaction time superior to any human.

Given how many examples there are in the world where a machine/computer is superior to a human at performing a task (greater speed, accuracy, precision, etc), its seems like hubris or naiveté to believe a human's ability to drive a car can never be surpassed. In fact, the current version of FSD is already as good as an average human driver under most conditions and is improving exponentially.

[Fru-Gal]

I love technology and don’t doubt that when well designed it can be miraculous.

I’m not comparing vision+neural net to a human. I’m comparing it to the competition.

End-to-end learning is also problematic. I guess it is characteristic of a Musk company that they would double down on a singular (& cheap) solution rather than try to ensure success by making a robust solution that selects the best-of-breed technologies used by other transportation modalities.

I also, as an investor, wouldn’t believe any company that claims to have an AI moat. AI is becoming commoditized.

[ColoradoTribe]

I love technology and don’t doubt that when well designed it can be miraculous.

I’m not comparing vision+neural net to a human. I’m comparing it to the competition.

End-to-end learning is also problematic. I guess it is characteristic of a Musk company that they would double down on a singular (& cheap) solution rather than try to ensure success by making a robust solution that selects the best-of-breed technologies used by other transportation modalities.

I also, as an investor, wouldn’t believe any company that claims to have an AI moat. AI is becoming commoditized.

By your logic, Ford is cutting corners on safety because it doesn't offer lidar as a driver assist/safety feature on its current cars. More is always better right?

Again, if humans are deemed safe enough to drive using our brains (neural net) and and eyeballs (vision) without the addition of Lidar, why would we deem it necessary for a superior neural net with superior vision (9 cameras with faster reaction time) to add lidar?

We are constantly, as a society, triangulating between cost, risk, and safety. Is it worth 10X the cost for a nebulous gain in safety, when Tesla's FSD brings cost effective autonomous driving to the masses and dramatically reduces the number of fatalities on the road each year? Widespread adoption is what is needed to drive down fatalities, not added cost for little to no actual safety gains.

[NorCal]

Relying exclusively on vision and “neural nets” is a laughable strategy.

Would you fly in a commercial jet if reassured that it was being piloted with a vision system and neural nets exclusively?

Let’s think about things that navigate beyond cars. Things like defense systems, submarines, planes, trains you need multiple instruments and sensors in order to ascertain your surroundings when visibility is problematic, or there are other difficult conditions. once again musk is hamstrung by his hubris. He has created a brilliant infallible system — that does not even work right now. Meanwhile, Waymo is using lidar, radar, vision and human oversight — and has several years of real world experience.

I do think the idea that every individual Tesla would become a cyber cab for the owner is a compelling thought experiment. But I don’t think there’s any proof that that can happen as the cars are currently instrumented.

Have you ridden in a Tesla operating under FSD supervised? I have.

How do you drive a car? You use vision (eyeballs) and a neural net (brain) to operate the car. Same as Tesla, except the AI is never emotional, or tired, or drunk, or distracted, or sleepy, or get s a leg cramp. The neural net also has the advantage of billions of miles of collective driving experience and 9 cameras (or nine sets of eyeballs) constantly surveying blind spots and approaching traffic. And reaction time superior to any human.

Given how many examples there are in the world where a machine/computer is superior to a human at performing a task (greater speed, accuracy, precision, etc), its seems like hubris or naiveté to believe a human's ability to drive a car can never be surpassed. In fact, the current version of FSD is already as good as an average human driver under most conditions and is improving exponentially.

What do you think the realistic revenue potential is for this robotaxi service, and what are realistic margins?

I did the math further up-thread, but a highly optimistic scenario seems to be a $10B - $15B/yr business in a decade.  However, it would most likely be significantly lower than this.  For context, Tesla already has about $100B in revenue.

It also isn't an 80%+ margin AI company.  It's not even a 30-50% margin business.  It's a capital inefficient business that can probably get to 20% gross margins initially, which would go down to the 10% range if they try to price below human-operated cars.

It's combining the capital inefficiency of a car manufacturer with the capital inefficiency of Zipcar or Hertz.  Except Zipcar has a secondary market for their cars that a robotaxi won't. 

It may turn into a worthwhile business venture (I'm skeptical of this, but don't rule it out), but the idea that it should command some valuation premium is pretty absurd. 

[bacchi]

Everyone keeps mentioning Tesla approval for the Cybercab in Austin. Is there a link to this regulatory approval? Is it like California's approval, which is employees only with a driver?

[GuitarStv]

We are constantly, as a society, triangulating between cost, risk, and safety. Is it worth 10X the cost for a nebulous gain in safety, when Tesla's FSD brings cost effective autonomous driving to the masses and dramatically reduces the number of fatalities on the road each year? Widespread adoption is what is needed to drive down fatalities, not added cost for little to no actual safety gains.

I am all for this eventually happening.  Safer roads are better, and if driving automation gets us there, great.  But don't put the cart before the horse, we do need to get there first.

From 2021 to the end of 2023, Teslas had 736 crashes, 17 of them fatal, while using automation.  That gives FSD a fatal accident rate of 11.3 deaths per 100 million miles travelled. Humans driving in 2022 had a fatal accident rate of 1.35 deaths per 100 million miles travelled.  Tesla vehicles themselves are the most crashed on the road.  Tesla drivers are involved in 26.67 accidents per 1,000 drivers (more than any other vehicle brand). - (https://www.planetearthandbeyond.co/p/self-driving-cars-are-way-more-dangerous)

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's analysis concluded that the Tesla Autopilot death rate is higher than reported estimates. Incidents were caused by the ADAS failing to recognize other vehicles, insufficient Autopilot driver engagement, and (they argue) poor operational design. - (https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2025/02/11/tesla-again-has-the-highest-accident-rate-of-any-auto-brand/)

It really doesn't sound like FSD is yet ready for prime time.  Now granted, with Musk running the government it seems unlikely that the NHTSA will be involved in blocking Tesla from doing anything they want in the future . . . but it doesn't paint as rosy a picture as you have been making.

Everyone keeps mentioning Tesla approval for the Cybercab in Austin. Is there a link to this regulatory approval? Is it like California's approval, which is employees only with a driver?

Texas amended its transportation code in 2017 to allow autonomous vehicles to operate on its roads, and it took away any ability for local governments to restrict testing or deployment.

Texas' rules say that autonomous vehicles are allowed to operate throughout the state as long as they comply with state traffic and vehicle laws and conform to federal rules regarding vehicle safety and AVs

  - https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/02/tesla-turns-to-texas-to-test-its-autonomous-cybercab/