Is Tesla a good investment?

[Rockies]

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now?

After 50 pages of discussion I can definitively answer this question. And the answer is: Yes.

[waltworks]

I've been hearing about how the newest version of the software is amazing now for years (even in this very thread!) Over and over and over. It's always just about ready to take over the world/drive me around while I nap.

I mean, I assume it will sooner or later, but I'm not all that confident Tesla will dominate that market to the extent they dominated EVs, because unlike the early EV days, there's plenty of competition (some of which is arguably ahead of Tesla) at the dawn (maybe) of autonomous cars.

As long as they don't run over cyclists I'm all for it and I guess I don't really care which company wins. I think I own stock in all of them in one way or another via indexing so I'm ambivalent.

My son is trying to decide if he should sell his one share. I think he has roughly doubled his money so for him it's definitely been a good investment! I think that stock (plus some gains in his ESG fund) increased his net worth from about $450 to about $700 this year, which is pretty solid!

-W

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now?

After 50 pages of discussion I can definitively answer this question. And the answer is: Yes.

That answers the question "Has Tesla been a good investment", but not "is" Tesla now a good investment.

Trump plans to enact +25% tariffs on Mexico, where a number of major automakers have factories.  Tesla makes cars inside the United States, giving them a big price advantage as tariffs are enacted.

From Jan 1 to Nov 1 2024, Tesla gained +0.2%.  From Nov 1 to now, Tesla gained +69.1%.  All of Tesla's YTD gains are based on Trump's election win.  Tesla's YTD gains are all about tariffs and Musk's access to power.

When Trump previously enacted tariffs on Mexico, little happened until he threatened to increase tariffs +5%/month until tariffs reached +25%.  Starting tariffs at +25% will give Mexico a strong motivation to strike a deal that ends the tariffs.  It seems unlikely Tesla's price advantage will last.

[Mr. Freedom]

Good points on the tariffs.  Potential tariffs on imports from China could also affect Tesla as it has one factory in China that exports a third of its production.  There's possible indications that Musk may be starting to rub some of the Trump Team the wrong way as well:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-trump-donald-mar-a-lago-appointment-position-rcna179826

[Rockies]

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now?

After 50 pages of discussion I can definitively answer this question. And the answer is: Yes.

That answers the question "Has Tesla been a good investment", but not "is" Tesla now a good investment.

The question was asked in 2018. Since then its gone up from ~$20 a share to ~$400 a share. You are right. No idea what the future will hold. I'm not specifically buying it. But its included in the S&P500 so I do hold it.

-Devin

[NorCal]

Good points on the tariffs.  Potential tariffs on imports from China could also affect Tesla as it has one factory in China that exports a third of its production.  There's possible indications that Musk may be starting to rub some of the Trump Team the wrong way as well:

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elon-musk-trump-donald-mar-a-lago-appointment-position-rcna179826

It’s been a few years since I looked at this, but I don’t believe it has changed.

Tesla builds its US based cars in the US, while China is an export hub to the rest of the world. That shouldn’t impact Tesla.

The details of tariffs matter greatly. Big round numbers get thrown around. But details matter a lot. Tariffs could be structured in a way that barely impacts the auto industry, or they could be structured in a way that could cause a major automaker to go out of business.

It’s impossible to overstate how global the supply chain is for automakers. Even for those manufactured in the US. Pretty much all of the engines and transmissions for Ford and GM cars are made in Mexico. Where do you suppose seats are sewn together?  Alternators?  Exhaust components?  Even for these components made in the US, there’s multiple layers of intermediate goods sourced from around the world.

I personally believe the  tariffs that impact the automotive industry will be a threat and a distraction, but won’t be structured in a way that really hits the industry hard.

[maizefolk]

When the new EV tax credit was coming in with its requirements for american manufacturing/sourcing, wasn't Tesla was actually in substantially better shape than many other manufacturers because they had a more integrated and more domestic supply chain than a lot of the other auto companies?

[NorCal]

When the new EV tax credit was coming in with its requirements for american manufacturing/sourcing, wasn't Tesla was actually in substantially better shape than many other manufacturers because they had a more integrated and more domestic supply chain than a lot of the other auto companies?

While Tesla would still be impacted in some way, broad tariffs on Mexico would crush most non-Tesla automakers.

It wouldn't be a question of how much prices go up.  It would be a question of which models would still be available. 

Tacking a 25% tariff on a vehicle like the Ford Maverick (made in Mexico) wouldn't make financial sense.  They probably just wouldn't sell that model in the US anymore.  The same would be true of most cheaper car models.  Most inexpensive car models would disappear instead of increasing in price. 

Some components manufacturing might relocate back to the states, but the price premium may be comparable to the added tariff prices.

The impact would be mass-layoffs in the US auto sector, along with reduced consumer availability and higher vehicle prices.  Which is exactly why I believe it won't happen in more than a symbolic way.

 

[Mr. Freedom]

Incoming administration has been signaling that it wants to greatly increase domestic oil production, selling it as a boon for consumers with lower gas prices but my hunch is it is more of a strategy to hurt the economies of Iran and Russia.  At any rate, do you think a period of lower gas prices might affect Tesla and other EV manufacturers sales?

[achvfi]

Incoming administration has been signaling that it wants to greatly increase domestic oil production, selling it as a boon for consumers with lower gas prices but my hunch is it is more of a strategy to hurt the economies of Iran and Russia.  At any rate, do you think a period of lower gas prices might affect Tesla and other EV manufacturers sales?

You can't invest in TSLA by looking at fundamentals. It is more like GameStop, Bitcoin or other speculations. Only reason for its valuation was its growth and for couple years now growth has stagnated, there is not a Hugh growth story as in 2020/2021.

I don't think gas price will have much of impact over EV sales. Overtime EVs will continue to get cheaper along with batteries and other components more than offset cost of gas.

[ColoradoTribe]

Incoming administration has been signaling that it wants to greatly increase domestic oil production, selling it as a boon for consumers with lower gas prices but my hunch is it is more of a strategy to hurt the economies of Iran and Russia.  At any rate, do you think a period of lower gas prices might affect Tesla and other EV manufacturers sales?

You can't invest in TSLA by looking at fundamentals. It is more like GameStop, Bitcoin or other speculations. Only reason for its valuation was its growth and for couple years now growth has stagnated, there is not a Hugh growth story as in 2020/2021.

I don't think gas price will have much of impact over EV sales. Overtime EVs will continue to get cheaper along with batteries and other components more than offset cost of gas.

Any one comparing Tesla to BTC and GME shows a lack of understanding or bad faith.

In January of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Roll out a refresh of world's best selling car with Juniper Model Y, which already started production in Shanghai.
2) Start battery production in the newest gigafactory located in Shanghai, allowing Tesla to continue annual growth of 50% in battery storage business while maintaining 30% margins.
3) Start production from their new Texas lithium refining plant and further vertical integration of their supply chain.

In 1H of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Start robotaxi service in Austin TX.
2) Release further versions of FSD 13 to owners. Rapidly improving FSD will see an increase in subscriptions from existing owners.
3) Begin production of two new lower cost EV models using new manufacturing techniques (unboxed).
4) Continue expansion of the supercharging network.
5) Ramp CyberTruck production and bring cost of production down.
6) Put Optimus humanoid robots on the Tesla factory floor
7) Likely to enter into a licensing agreement for FSD software with a legacy OEM.
8) Continue to expand its lead in compute power.

You are confusing the time between revenue waves with a lack of progress. Tesla is constantly seeking to improve its products, vertically integrate, push technological boundaries and expand to new markets. Those who wait until the revenue from the above progress/investments hits the bottom line will have missed the opportunity.

[waltworks]

I'll be excited to see all of that, if it happens.

Should be an interesting year one way or another with Musk's political activities. Let's hope for lots of cool innovations that make the world a better place (even if only incrementally) and minimal drama.

-W

[achvfi]

Incoming administration has been signaling that it wants to greatly increase domestic oil production, selling it as a boon for consumers with lower gas prices but my hunch is it is more of a strategy to hurt the economies of Iran and Russia.  At any rate, do you think a period of lower gas prices might affect Tesla and other EV manufacturers sales?

You can't invest in TSLA by looking at fundamentals. It is more like GameStop, Bitcoin or other speculations. Only reason for its valuation was its growth and for couple years now growth has stagnated, there is not a Hugh growth story as in 2020/2021.

I don't think gas price will have much of impact over EV sales. Overtime EVs will continue to get cheaper along with batteries and other components more than offset cost of gas.

Any one comparing Tesla to BTC and GME shows a lack of understanding or bad faith.

In January of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Roll out a refresh of world's best selling car with Juniper Model Y, which already started production in Shanghai.
2) Start battery production in the newest gigafactory located in Shanghai, allowing Tesla to continue annual growth of 50% in battery storage business while maintaining 30% margins.
3) Start production from their new Texas lithium refining plant and further vertical integration of their supply train.

In 1H of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Start robotaxi service in Austin TX.
2) Release further versions of FSD 13 to owners. Rapidly improving FSD will see an increase in subscriptions from existing owners.
3) Begin production of two new lower cost EV models using new manufacturing techniques (unboxed).
4) Continue expansion of the supercharging network.
5) Ramp CyberTruck production and bring cost of production down.
6) Put Optimus humanoid robots on the Tesla factory floor
7) Likely to enter into a licensing agreement for FSD software with a legacy OEM.
8) Continue to expand its lead in compute power.

You are confusing the time between revenue waves with a lack of progress. Tesla is constantly seeking to improve its products, vertically integrate, push technological boundaries and expand to new markets. Those who wait until the revenue from the above progress/investments hits the bottom line will have missed the opportunity.

That's my point. After growth stalled valuation now is based on whole bunch of stories and speculations.

One of the most recent of these stories is Elmos political advantages and I don't think it is of any advantage to Tesla. He is continuing to alienate customers from right, left and in between.

[ColoradoTribe]

Incoming administration has been signaling that it wants to greatly increase domestic oil production, selling it as a boon for consumers with lower gas prices but my hunch is it is more of a strategy to hurt the economies of Iran and Russia.  At any rate, do you think a period of lower gas prices might affect Tesla and other EV manufacturers sales?

You can't invest in TSLA by looking at fundamentals. It is more like GameStop, Bitcoin or other speculations. Only reason for its valuation was its growth and for couple years now growth has stagnated, there is not a Hugh growth story as in 2020/2021.

I don't think gas price will have much of impact over EV sales. Overtime EVs will continue to get cheaper along with batteries and other components more than offset cost of gas.

Any one comparing Tesla to BTC and GME shows a lack of understanding or bad faith.

In January of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Roll out a refresh of world's best selling car with Juniper Model Y, which already started production in Shanghai.
2) Start battery production in the newest gigafactory located in Shanghai, allowing Tesla to continue annual growth of 50% in battery storage business while maintaining 30% margins.
3) Start production from their new Texas lithium refining plant and further vertical integration of their supply train.

In 1H of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Start robotaxi service in Austin TX.
2) Release further versions of FSD 13 to owners. Rapidly improving FSD will see an increase in subscriptions from existing owners.
3) Begin production of two new lower cost EV models using new manufacturing techniques (unboxed).
4) Continue expansion of the supercharging network.
5) Ramp CyberTruck production and bring cost of production down.
6) Put Optimus humanoid robots on the Tesla factory floor
7) Likely to enter into a licensing agreement for FSD software with a legacy OEM.
8) Continue to expand its lead in compute power.

You are confusing the time between revenue waves with a lack of progress. Tesla is constantly seeking to improve its products, vertically integrate, push technological boundaries and expand to new markets. Those who wait until the revenue from the above progress/investments hits the bottom line will have missed the opportunity.

That's my point. After growth stalled valuation now is based on whole bunch of stories and speculations.

One of the most recent of these stories is Elmos political advantages and I don't think it is of any advantage to Tesla. He is continuing to alienate customers from right, left and in between.

Growth hasn't stalled! Tesla is building factories (newly completed Shanghai gigafactory more than doubles mega-pack production capacity), ramping new products, installing new superchargers, increasing compute power exponentially, etc. This is all growth! If you refuse to recognize this growth that's your choice. Again, you are confusing a lull between two waves of revenue growth while ignoring Tesla pushing ahead and hitting growth milestones that will increase revenue in 2025 and beyond.

None of the things listed above are pie-in-the-sky aspirations. They have either occurred or will be accomplished in the first half of 2025 with near 100% certainty. None of the things I listed has anything to do with politics. For everything I listed there is something else being developed or improved beneath the surface.

If you don't think Tesla is a good investment that's more than fine, don't invest, or short it. But you can't objectively say the company has stagnated. I didn't even mention the construction of the semi factory in NV, which is ongoing and will be completed before the end of 2025.

Tesla is the only foreign car manufacturer to grow sales in China this year. Every other foreign manufacturer has declining sales in the world's largest car market. Let that sink in. Honda had to merge with Nissan to keep Nissan from going bankrupt. VW is shuttering factories and laying off employees. GM and Ford are scaling back EV plans and pushing soon to be obsolete hybrids. Want to talk about growth, by comparison, Tesla is in a league of its own compared to the rest of the car industry outside of China (and maybe Korea).

Tesla is the only company on the planet that has the AI, robotics, compute, and manufacturing abilities to bring a mass-produced, AI driven, humanoid robot to market profitably. I think Tesla may turn a profit with Optimus before FSD/robotaxi and virtually no one is talking about this multi-trillion market for labor disruption because they can't see past Elon's antics and daily outrage headlines.

[bacchi]

In 1H of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Start robotaxi service in Austin TX.
2) Release further versions of FSD 13 to owners. Rapidly improving FSD will see an increase in subscriptions from existing owners.
3) Begin production of two new lower cost EV models using new manufacturing techniques (unboxed).
4) Continue expansion of the supercharging network.
5) Ramp CyberTruck production and bring cost of production down.
6) Put Optimus humanoid robots on the Tesla factory floor
7) Likely to enter into a licensing agreement for FSD software with a legacy OEM.
8) Continue to expand its lead in compute power.

You are confusing the time between revenue waves with a lack of progress. Tesla is constantly seeking to improve its products, vertically integrate, push technological boundaries and expand to new markets. Those who wait until the revenue from the above progress/investments hits the bottom line will have missed the opportunity.

That's my point. After growth stalled valuation now is based on whole bunch of stories and speculations.

One of the most recent of these stories is Elmos political advantages and I don't think it is of any advantage to Tesla. He is continuing to alienate customers from right, left and in between.

Growth hasn't stalled! Tesla is building factories (newly completed Shanghai gigafactory more than doubles mega-pack production capacity), ramping new products, installing new superchargers, increasing compute power exponentially, etc. This is all growth! If you refuse to recognize this growth that's your choice. Again, you are confusing a lull between two waves of revenue growth while ignoring Tesla pushing ahead and hitting growth milestones that will increase revenue in 2025.

None of the things I listed above are pie-in-th-sky aspirations. They have either occurred or will be accomplished in the first half of 2025 with near 100% certainty. None of the things I listed has anything to do with politics. For everything I listed there is something else being developed or improved beneath the surface.

Has Tesla stated this (#1, start robotaxi service)? Because another posted above said it would be 18-24 months.

What's the other lower cost EV (#3) besides the Model 2?

Re: #5, they'd better lower costs because sales of the $100k/$120k model have slowed. August-Sept-Oct sales were 5,428-4,335-4,039, per S&P Global Mobility.

Besides a comment that Musk said in April, what else is known about #7, the licensing agreement? Has a legacy OEM (GM? BMW?) said anything?

[ColoradoTribe]

In 1H of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Start robotaxi service in Austin TX.
2) Release further versions of FSD 13 to owners. Rapidly improving FSD will see an increase in subscriptions from existing owners.
3) Begin production of two new lower cost EV models using new manufacturing techniques (unboxed).
4) Continue expansion of the supercharging network.
5) Ramp CyberTruck production and bring cost of production down.
6) Put Optimus humanoid robots on the Tesla factory floor
7) Likely to enter into a licensing agreement for FSD software with a legacy OEM.
8) Continue to expand its lead in compute power.

You are confusing the time between revenue waves with a lack of progress. Tesla is constantly seeking to improve its products, vertically integrate, push technological boundaries and expand to new markets. Those who wait until the revenue from the above progress/investments hits the bottom line will have missed the opportunity.

That's my point. After growth stalled valuation now is based on whole bunch of stories and speculations.

One of the most recent of these stories is Elmos political advantages and I don't think it is of any advantage to Tesla. He is continuing to alienate customers from right, left and in between.

Growth hasn't stalled! Tesla is building factories (newly completed Shanghai gigafactory more than doubles mega-pack production capacity), ramping new products, installing new superchargers, increasing compute power exponentially, etc. This is all growth! If you refuse to recognize this growth that's your choice. Again, you are confusing a lull between two waves of revenue growth while ignoring Tesla pushing ahead and hitting growth milestones that will increase revenue in 2025.

None of the things I listed above are pie-in-th-sky aspirations. They have either occurred or will be accomplished in the first half of 2025 with near 100% certainty. None of the things I listed has anything to do with politics. For everything I listed there is something else being developed or improved beneath the surface.

Has Tesla stated this (#1, start robotaxi service)? Because another posted above said it would be 18-24 months.

What's the other lower cost EV (#3) besides the Model 2?

Re: #5, they'd better lower costs because sales of the $100k/$120k model have slowed. August-Sept-Oct sales were 5,428-4,335-4,039, per S&P Global Mobility.

Besides a comment that Musk said in April, what else is known about #7, the licensing agreement? Has a legacy OEM (GM? BMW?) said anything?

"During the company’s Q3 earnings call in October, Elon said that employees in the Bay Area, California were already testing ride-hailing services internally. Using the company’s development app, Tesla employees can already request rides and be taken to anywhere in the Bay, according to the CEO."

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-us-cities-driverless-ride-hailing/#

Tesla has been in talks with Austin since May 2024. No exact date, but rollout to employees in SF and progress with v13 of FSD strongly suggest to me 1H of 2025 for first public rollout of robotaxi trial.

Model 2 has been shelved, announced months ago. Two lower cost vehicles are a Model Y variant with 3rd row and smaller sedan based on Model 3 platform. Lines are already under construction in Austin and will deploy aspects of "unboxed" manufacturing process.

CT was profitable in Q4 despite low production volumes. COGS for CT will decline further as vehicle production continue to ramp and 4680 cell ramp progresses.

FSD licensing will follow same path as NACS charger adoption. The first OEM to license gets the best deal and the floodgates open from there. Progress demonstrated with FSD 13 will increases likelihood of FSD deal with OEM in near future. They are not going to publicly discuss private negotiations in advance of announcing a deal. GM cancelling their Cruise self-driving program further suggests OEMs will need to outsource their self-driving software if they want to stay relevant, same as happened with supercharger adoption.

[achvfi]

Incoming administration has been signaling that it wants to greatly increase domestic oil production, selling it as a boon for consumers with lower gas prices but my hunch is it is more of a strategy to hurt the economies of Iran and Russia.  At any rate, do you think a period of lower gas prices might affect Tesla and other EV manufacturers sales?

You can't invest in TSLA by looking at fundamentals. It is more like GameStop, Bitcoin or other speculations. Only reason for its valuation was its growth and for couple years now growth has stagnated, there is not a Hugh growth story as in 2020/2021.

I don't think gas price will have much of impact over EV sales. Overtime EVs will continue to get cheaper along with batteries and other components more than offset cost of gas.

Any one comparing Tesla to BTC and GME shows a lack of understanding or bad faith.

In January of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Roll out a refresh of world's best selling car with Juniper Model Y, which already started production in Shanghai.
2) Start battery production in the newest gigafactory located in Shanghai, allowing Tesla to continue annual growth of 50% in battery storage business while maintaining 30% margins.
3) Start production from their new Texas lithium refining plant and further vertical integration of their supply train.

In 1H of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Start robotaxi service in Austin TX.
2) Release further versions of FSD 13 to owners. Rapidly improving FSD will see an increase in subscriptions from existing owners.
3) Begin production of two new lower cost EV models using new manufacturing techniques (unboxed).
4) Continue expansion of the supercharging network.
5) Ramp CyberTruck production and bring cost of production down.
6) Put Optimus humanoid robots on the Tesla factory floor
7) Likely to enter into a licensing agreement for FSD software with a legacy OEM.
8) Continue to expand its lead in compute power.

You are confusing the time between revenue waves with a lack of progress. Tesla is constantly seeking to improve its products, vertically integrate, push technological boundaries and expand to new markets. Those who wait until the revenue from the above progress/investments hits the bottom line will have missed the opportunity.

That's my point. After growth stalled valuation now is based on whole bunch of stories and speculations.

One of the most recent of these stories is Elmos political advantages and I don't think it is of any advantage to Tesla. He is continuing to alienate customers from right, left and in between.

Growth hasn't stalled! Tesla is building factories (newly completed Shanghai gigafactory more than doubles mega-pack production capacity), ramping new products, installing new superchargers, increasing compute power exponentially, etc. This is all growth! If you refuse to recognize this growth that's your choice. Again, you are confusing a lull between two waves of revenue growth while ignoring Tesla pushing ahead and hitting growth milestones that will increase revenue in 2025 and beyond.

None of the things listed above are pie-in-the-sky aspirations. They have either occurred or will be accomplished in the first half of 2025 with near 100% certainty. None of the things I listed has anything to do with politics. For everything I listed there is something else being developed or improved beneath the surface.

If you don't think Tesla is a good investment that's more than fine, don't invest, or short it. But you can't objectively say the company has stagnated. I didn't even mention the construction of the semi factory in NV, which is ongoing and will be completed before the end of 2025.

Tesla is the only foreign car manufacturer to grow sales in China this year. Every other foreign manufacturer has declining sales in the world's largest car market. Let that sink in. Honda had to merge with Nissan to keep Nissan from going bankrupt. VW is shuttering factories and laying off employees. GM and Ford are scaling back EV plans and pushing soon to be obsolete hybrids. Want to talk about growth, by comparison, Tesla is in a league of its own compared to the rest of the car industry outside of China (and maybe Korea).

Tesla is the only company on the planet that has the AI, robotics, compute, and manufacturing abilities to bring a mass-produced, AI driven, humanoid robot to market profitably. I think Tesla may turn a profit with Optimus before FSD/robotaxi and virtually no one is talking about this multi-trillion market for labor disruption because they can't see past Elon's antics and daily outrage headlines.

Growth in expenses has not stalled, but growth in car sales and revenue has. While most other important EV manufacturer's car sales are growing in 50-100% YOY. In fact many of these stories are expensive that may result in little growth. Many are just distractions for stalled growth.

[bacchi]

Has Tesla stated this (#1, start robotaxi service)? Because another posted above said it would be 18-24 months.

What's the other lower cost EV (#3) besides the Model 2?

Re: #5, they'd better lower costs because sales of the $100k/$120k model have slowed. August-Sept-Oct sales were 5,428-4,335-4,039, per S&P Global Mobility.

Besides a comment that Musk said in April, what else is known about #7, the licensing agreement? Has a legacy OEM (GM? BMW?) said anything?

"During the company’s Q3 earnings call in October, Elon said that employees in the Bay Area, California were already testing ride-hailing services internally. Using the company’s development app, Tesla employees can already request rides and be taken to anywhere in the Bay, according to the CEO."

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-us-cities-driverless-ride-hailing/#

Tesla has been in talks with Austin since May 2024. No exact date, but rollout to employees in SF and progress with v13 of FSD strongly suggest to me 1H of 2025 for first public rollout of robotaxi trial.

Model 2 has been shelved, announced months ago. Two lower cost vehicles are a Model Y variant with 3rd row and smaller sedan based on Model 3 platform. Lines are already under construction in Austin and will deploy aspects of "unboxed" manufacturing process.

CT was profitable in Q4 despite low production volumes. COGS for CT will decline further as vehicle production continue to ramp and 4680 cell ramp progresses.

FSD licensing will follow same path as NACS charger adoption. The first OEM to license gets the best deal and the floodgates open from there. Progress demonstrated with FSD 13 will increases likelihood of FSD deal with OEM in near future. They are not going to publicly discuss private negotiations in advance of announcing a deal. GM cancelling their Cruise self-driving program further suggests OEMs will need to outsource their self-driving software if they want to stay relevant, same as happened with supercharger adoption.

#1 That's cool but Tesla doesn't have a driverless permit in San Narcissco, which means any "ride-hailing" is in a Tesla with a driver present. Why hasn't Tesla filed for a driverless permit in SF if they're that close? Is Austin an easier city to navigate for self-driving cars?

Color me skeptical. The Vegas Loop still has drivers and that's a fixed route.

#5 That's good because I think the market for $100k odd-looking pickups has almost dried up.

#7 So this is the opposite of FUD (How about HAC: Hope, Assuredness, and Confidence?) There's nothing beyond a comment by Musk in April 2024 and you think, with "near 100% certainty,", that it'll happen before July?

Or do you have insider info?

[reeshau]

FSD licensing will follow same path as NACS charger adoption. The first OEM to license gets the best deal and the floodgates open from there. Progress demonstrated with FSD 13 will increases likelihood of FSD deal with OEM in near future. They are not going to publicly discuss private negotiations in advance of announcing a deal. GM cancelling their Cruise self-driving program further suggests OEMs will need to outsource their self-driving software if they want to stay relevant, same as happened with supercharger adoption.

FSD won't be licensed unless it can integrate radars, lidars, and other sensors.  Other OEM's are committed to the other safety sensors, even for ADAS capability.

And, if FSD can support other sensors, it will be hard for Elon to argue against them, as volume safety data comes in.

Seems like a catch 22, to me.  Unless Elon is willing to change his mind on sensors.

[shuffler]

I think Tesla may turn a profit with Optimus before FSD/robotaxi and virtually no one is talking about this multi-trillion market for labor disruption because they can't see past Elon's antics and daily outrage headlines.

I saw the unveiling event.  I kept thinking:  With Chuck E Cheese moving to digitally rendered entertainers, and Disney "remodeling" (probably closing) its Hall of Presidents ... what will be the future TAM of animatronics?  Multi-trillion seems unlikely.

Really though, what has Tesla done here that hasn't been done earlier and better by Boston Dynamics?  I'd be thrilled to see something unique or interesting, but so far it's been severely underwhelming.

[GuitarStv]

2014 - Promises that Tesla vehicles autonomous driving will be 90% complete by the end of the year
2015 - Promises that Tesla vehicles can drive autonomously on freeways and simple roads in a matter of months
2016 - Musk stages and fakes a demonstration of a model X driving itself.  Musk promises full self driving next year.
2017 - Musk promises that by the end of the year Tesla cars will be able to drive from California to New York with no user input.  In December he promises that full self driving is about 2 years away.
2018 - Musk promises cross country autonomous coast to coast driving capability in 3-6 months.  In November he says that autonomous driving is only a year away.
2019 - Musk says he will be feature complete for fully autonomous driving this year and that nobody will need to pay attention to their car while it's driving.  Predictions for imminent millions of robotaxis start coming out of Tesla.
2020 - Musk says that he will have fully autonomous self driving by the end of the year.
2021 - Musk says that Teslas will be safer drivers than humans by the end of the year.  Musk also says that full autonomous driving will be achieved in 2022.
2022 - Musk says he'll be shocked if they don't achieve full self driving by the end of the year.
2023 - Claims that Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving by the end of the year.
2024 - Claims that by Q2 of 2025 Tesla's FSD will be safer than human drivers.  Again.

Elon Musk has a very, very long history of overpromising/outright lying about Tesla's capabilities as they relate to self-driving.  Why should I believe him this time?

[waltworks]

From my perspective, there are several companies backed by billions of dollars with super smart people working very hard on self driving. Some of them are already doing trials on public streets, in a pretty limited way. Tesla isn't one of them AFAIK.

Someone is going to get it working well enough to have it take over from Lyft/Uber at a minimum, and also at least some of the personal car market as well. When that will be is anyone's guess, though.

Tesla is the loudest about their plans. That doesn't mean they'll be the first/only to succeed. The camera-only approach seems really dubious to me, but what do I know.

I'll keep y'all in the loop on my kid and his one share. He's thinking about selling and rolling his profits into an index fund (!)

-W

[bacchi]

From my perspective, there are several companies backed by billions of dollars with super smart people working very hard on self driving. Some of them are already doing trials on public streets, in a pretty limited way. Tesla isn't one of them AFAIK.

Waymo has 100,000 paying fares per week. Granted, it's only in SF, Phoenix, and LA.

They're currently testing in Austin and Atlanta. Here's my 2025 prediction: Waymo will offer robotaxi service in Austin before Tesla does.

[Telecaster]

Incoming administration has been signaling that it wants to greatly increase domestic oil production, selling it as a boon for consumers with lower gas prices but my hunch is it is more of a strategy to hurt the economies of Iran and Russia.  At any rate, do you think a period of lower gas prices might affect Tesla and other EV manufacturers sales?

I don't think we'll see any significant difference in gas prices.  The US has a net oil exporter and has been for a few years.  Globally, there seems to be a surplus of oil and most of the majors have signaled they aren't interested in increasing production in any significant way. 

[ColoradoTribe]

FSD licensing will follow same path as NACS charger adoption. The first OEM to license gets the best deal and the floodgates open from there. Progress demonstrated with FSD 13 will increases likelihood of FSD deal with OEM in near future. They are not going to publicly discuss private negotiations in advance of announcing a deal. GM cancelling their Cruise self-driving program further suggests OEMs will need to outsource their self-driving software if they want to stay relevant, same as happened with supercharger adoption.

FSD won't be licensed unless it can integrate radars, lidars, and other sensors.  Other OEM's are committed to the other safety sensors, even for ADAS capability.

And, if FSD can support other sensors, it will be hard for Elon to argue against them, as volume safety data comes in.

Seems like a catch 22, to me.  Unless Elon is willing to change his mind on sensors.

No other OEMs have a credible AEV programs. GM just scrapped Blue Cruise after pumping billions into it.

Tesla is recording millions of FSD miles every week. Once they have the data showing FSD is safer than the average human driver by some factor regulators will feel compelled to approve it and insurance companies will require it to get the best premiums. It will have nothing to do with how many sensors you can cram onto the car.

Humans drivers don't have lidar. We use visions and a brain (neural net). Tesla FSD will use eight cameras (eyes) and a neural net with reaction times far faster than a human is capable.

Don't want to believe me, the CEO of Google (parent company of Waymo) just said Tesla is the leader in this space and Waymo is second.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VO-5SIIkfPg

[ColoradoTribe]

In 1H of 2025 Tesla will:

1) Start robotaxi service in Austin TX.
2) Release further versions of FSD 13 to owners. Rapidly improving FSD will see an increase in subscriptions from existing owners.
3) Begin production of two new lower cost EV models using new manufacturing techniques (unboxed).
4) Continue expansion of the supercharging network.
5) Ramp CyberTruck production and bring cost of production down.
6) Put Optimus humanoid robots on the Tesla factory floor
7) Likely to enter into a licensing agreement for FSD software with a legacy OEM.
8) Continue to expand its lead in compute power.

You are confusing the time between revenue waves with a lack of progress. Tesla is constantly seeking to improve its products, vertically integrate, push technological boundaries and expand to new markets. Those who wait until the revenue from the above progress/investments hits the bottom line will have missed the opportunity.

That's my point. After growth stalled valuation now is based on whole bunch of stories and speculations.

One of the most recent of these stories is Elmos political advantages and I don't think it is of any advantage to Tesla. He is continuing to alienate customers from right, left and in between.

Growth hasn't stalled! Tesla is building factories (newly completed Shanghai gigafactory more than doubles mega-pack production capacity), ramping new products, installing new superchargers, increasing compute power exponentially, etc. This is all growth! If you refuse to recognize this growth that's your choice. Again, you are confusing a lull between two waves of revenue growth while ignoring Tesla pushing ahead and hitting growth milestones that will increase revenue in 2025.

None of the things I listed above are pie-in-th-sky aspirations. They have either occurred or will be accomplished in the first half of 2025 with near 100% certainty. None of the things I listed has anything to do with politics. For everything I listed there is something else being developed or improved beneath the surface.

Has Tesla stated this (#1, start robotaxi service)? Because another posted above said it would be 18-24 months.

What's the other lower cost EV (#3) besides the Model 2?

Re: #5, they'd better lower costs because sales of the $100k/$120k model have slowed. August-Sept-Oct sales were 5,428-4,335-4,039, per S&P Global Mobility.

Besides a comment that Musk said in April, what else is known about #7, the licensing agreement? Has a legacy OEM (GM? BMW?) said anything?

I can purchase a CyberTruck in Colorado for $76k today after state and federal tax credits. Tesla CHOSE to sell the high end/expensive foundation series first because that's how Tesla funds the production ramp and reached profitability on the model last quarter.

There is no Model 2. It has been shelved in favor of the two cheaper variants of the MY and M3, which was already explained to you.

Why don't you call Tesla and ask them to comment on their internal deliberations with other OEMs regarding licensing. A deal will be announced when it's done. Wether it's in one month or ten months is truly irrelevant for a long term investor. The Google CEO even admitted Tesla is the leader in autonomous driving and Waymo is second. First OEM to license gets the best deal and it's becoming clear to those who know the space who the winner is going to be.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VO-5SIIkfPg

Your MO is tired. You have been wrong about Tesla since the beginning of this thread, likely longer. From the prospects of the investment, the desirability of the products, the company roadmap, to its leadership. Yet, you just keep coming back with the next round of concerns taken from second-hand news headlines. You show a consistent lack of basic understanding of this space and still spout off like you haven't been wrong all along. Anybody who sold based on your bad takes missed out on huge gains that many, myself included, saw coming.

[ColoradoTribe]

2014 - Promises that Tesla vehicles autonomous driving will be 90% complete by the end of the year
2015 - Promises that Tesla vehicles can drive autonomously on freeways and simple roads in a matter of months
2016 - Musk stages and fakes a demonstration of a model X driving itself.  Musk promises full self driving next year.
2017 - Musk promises that by the end of the year Tesla cars will be able to drive from California to New York with no user input.  In December he promises that full self driving is about 2 years away.
2018 - Musk promises cross country autonomous coast to coast driving capability in 3-6 months.  In November he says that autonomous driving is only a year away.
2019 - Musk says he will be feature complete for fully autonomous driving this year and that nobody will need to pay attention to their car while it's driving.  Predictions for imminent millions of robotaxis start coming out of Tesla.
2020 - Musk says that he will have fully autonomous self driving by the end of the year.
2021 - Musk says that Teslas will be safer drivers than humans by the end of the year.  Musk also says that full autonomous driving will be achieved in 2022.
2022 - Musk says he'll be shocked if they don't achieve full self driving by the end of the year.
2023 - Claims that Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving by the end of the year.
2024 - Claims that by Q2 of 2025 Tesla's FSD will be safer than human drivers.  Again.

Elon Musk has a very, very long history of overpromising/outright lying about Tesla's capabilities as they relate to self-driving.  Why should I believe him this time?

2024 - Google CEO admits Tesla is leader in space and Waymo is second
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VO-5SIIkfPg
2025 - Tesla launches pilot program for Robotaxi in select TX and/or CA cities
2026 - Tesla begins mass production of Robotaxi and receives first state level regulatory approval.
2027 - Long term investors are richly rewarded and could care less that it took a few extra years to go 10X (again).
2028 - Bears move goal posts further out (again).

[waltworks]

Yeesh, lots of hard feelings all around. I can see both sides, for sure.

If Tesla succeeds, awesome. The current stock price will be easily justified and I don't care if I pay to ride in a Waymo or a Tesla or whatever. I don't really use cars much anyway.

I have a hard time imagining any one company completely dominating just because of antitrust laws. Maybe Musk will get those waived for Tesla or something, though.

-W

[reeshau]

FSD licensing will follow same path as NACS charger adoption. The first OEM to license gets the best deal and the floodgates open from there. Progress demonstrated with FSD 13 will increases likelihood of FSD deal with OEM in near future. They are not going to publicly discuss private negotiations in advance of announcing a deal. GM cancelling their Cruise self-driving program further suggests OEMs will need to outsource their self-driving software if they want to stay relevant, same as happened with supercharger adoption.

FSD won't be licensed unless it can integrate radars, lidars, and other sensors.  Other OEM's are committed to the other safety sensors, even for ADAS capability.

And, if FSD can support other sensors, it will be hard for Elon to argue against them, as volume safety data comes in.

Seems like a catch 22, to me.  Unless Elon is willing to change his mind on sensors.

No other OEMs have a credible AEV programs. GM just scrapped Blue Cruise after pumping billions into it.

Tesla is recording millions of FSD miles every week. Once they have the data showing FSD is safer than the average human driver by some factor regulators will feel compelled to approve it and insurance companies will require it to get the best premiums. It will have nothing to do with how many sensors you can cram onto the car.

Humans drivers don't have lidar. We use visions and a brain (neural net). Tesla FSD will use eight cameras (eyes) and a neural net with reaction times far faster than a human is capable.

Don't want to believe me, the CEO of Google (parent company of Waymo) just said Tesla is the leader in this space and Waymo is second.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VO-5SIIkfPg

Some of this has been argued--repeatedly--previously in this thread.

There is common sense in adding additional emitters to compliment safety performance, particularly at night, in adverse weather, and in obstacle detection.  (Is that an adult far away?  Or a child close by?)  Insisting on doing without is either hubris, or a focus on cost vs. safety.  I am highly confident that this will be proven out in the end.  But I suspect there will be lives lost in the meantime.

There is no non-lidar system that meets NHTSA's proposed new pedestrian safety standard.  Of course, with an ETA of 2029, DOGE will probably take care of that, at least through the next administration.  But I think the EU may pick up the slack.  This standard was deemed important enough to be required out of the gate, not just for a 5 star crash rating.

Tesla may choose to take an aggressive approach to safety.  Other OEM's will not, because they have been the subject of safety-related class-action lawsuits before.  It is existential to a car company.  It's not a matter of Tesla's capability, in Tesla's own estimation.  It is a matter of the judgment of those other companies.

[GuitarStv]

2014 - Promises that Tesla vehicles autonomous driving will be 90% complete by the end of the year
2015 - Promises that Tesla vehicles can drive autonomously on freeways and simple roads in a matter of months
2016 - Musk stages and fakes a demonstration of a model X driving itself.  Musk promises full self driving next year.
2017 - Musk promises that by the end of the year Tesla cars will be able to drive from California to New York with no user input.  In December he promises that full self driving is about 2 years away.
2018 - Musk promises cross country autonomous coast to coast driving capability in 3-6 months.  In November he says that autonomous driving is only a year away.
2019 - Musk says he will be feature complete for fully autonomous driving this year and that nobody will need to pay attention to their car while it's driving.  Predictions for imminent millions of robotaxis start coming out of Tesla.
2020 - Musk says that he will have fully autonomous self driving by the end of the year.
2021 - Musk says that Teslas will be safer drivers than humans by the end of the year.  Musk also says that full autonomous driving will be achieved in 2022.
2022 - Musk says he'll be shocked if they don't achieve full self driving by the end of the year.
2023 - Claims that Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving by the end of the year.
2024 - Claims that by Q2 of 2025 Tesla's FSD will be safer than human drivers.  Again.

Elon Musk has a very, very long history of overpromising/outright lying about Tesla's capabilities as they relate to self-driving.  Why should I believe him this time?

2024 - Google CEO admits Tesla is leader in space and Waymo is second
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VO-5SIIkfPg
2025 - Tesla launches pilot program for Robotaxi in select TX and/or CA cities
2026 - Tesla begins mass production of Robotaxi and receives first state level regulatory approval.
2027 - Long term investors are richly rewarded and could care less that it took a few extra years to go 10X (again).
2028 - Bears move goal posts further out (again).

Sooo  . . .  couldn't think of a reason to believe him this time either?

[bacchi]

Has Tesla stated this (#1, start robotaxi service)? Because another posted above said it would be 18-24 months.

What's the other lower cost EV (#3) besides the Model 2?

Re: #5, they'd better lower costs because sales of the $100k/$120k model have slowed. August-Sept-Oct sales were 5,428-4,335-4,039, per S&P Global Mobility.

Besides a comment that Musk said in April, what else is known about #7, the licensing agreement? Has a legacy OEM (GM? BMW?) said anything?

I can purchase a CyberTruck in Colorado for $76k today after state and federal tax credits. Tesla CHOSE to sell the high end/expensive foundation series first because that's how Tesla funds the production ramp and reached profitability on the model last quarter.

There is no Model 2. It has been shelved in favor of the two cheaper variants of the MY and M3, which was already explained to you.

Why don't you call Tesla and ask them to comment on their internal deliberations with other OEMs regarding licensing. A deal will be announced when it's done. Wether it's in one month or ten months is truly irrelevant for a long term investor. The Google CEO even admitted Tesla is the leader in autonomous driving and Waymo is second. First OEM to license gets the best deal and it's becoming clear to those who know the space who the winner is going to be.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VO-5SIIkfPg

You already replied to that post of mine.

But it sounds like your opinion on OEM licensing is worth as much as mine. I'm glad we agree.

Your MO is tired. You have been wrong about Tesla since the beginning of this thread, likely longer. From the prospects of the investment, the desirability of the products, the company roadmap, to its leadership. Yet, you just keep coming back with the next round of concerns taken from second-hand news headlines. You show a consistent lack of basic understanding of this space and still spout off like you haven't been wrong all along. Anybody who sold based on your bad takes missed out on huge gains that many, myself included, saw coming.

How's that 1 million 2 million Cybertruck wait list working for Tesla? With sales down month after month, will it still be the hit that you and Elon claimed? You'd think with that many reservations sales would not only be much higher but also growing.

Cybertruck production is reaching volumes (~100,000/yr) where it will contribute meaningfully to Tesla’s bottom line. The CT production rate will hit the 250k/yr run rate in 2025. Order backlog is estimated to be over 2 million.

I thought you weren't going to respond to me anymore anyway? I'm glad we're still talking because I enjoy our debates.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

2025 - Tesla launches pilot program for Robotaxi in select TX and/or CA cities
2026 - Tesla begins mass production of Robotaxi and receives first state level regulatory approval.
2028 - Bears move goal posts further out (again).

Bears?  Elon Musk has repeatedly moved the goalposts.  Every year or two, he claims Tesla will have full self driving that year.  And every time so far, he's wrong.  I do not give credit to a stopped clock when it is right twice a day.

2027 - Long term investors are richly rewarded and could care less that it took a few extra years to go 10X (again).

You're claiming that Tesla's current price of $410.44/share will hit $4,104/share by the end of 2027?
You're claiming Tesla's market cap will rise from $1.3 trillion to $13 trillion over 3 years?
Where do I sign up for bets like this?

[reeshau]

Jan 2, 2025: FSD turns onto train tracks in Santa Monica. (Light rail)  With train coming behind.  Driver intervened and ran a red light to avoid collision.

https://x.com/jessechenglyu/status/1874938296390033895. (Fair warning: there is some colorful language used in the narration)

It took one gruesome pedestrian crash to kill Cruise.  But GM had more to lose than gain.  It's just a matter of time before Tesla has such an accident, and maybe it already has.  The company will have to show how it will navigate the legal liability for such autonomous actions.  Every autonomy company will face this; unfortunately, as a first mover, Tesla may set a precedent.

[reeshau]

And, to be fair to Tesla, Waymo has had its own problems.  While circling endlessly in a parking lot is clearly a stupid error, it probably risked no lives.

[achvfi]

Heil Tesla! Supporting a company like this should be of no comfort for typical customer anywhere. Imagine driving around town in shining Nazi mobile and what people assume about you. I can't imagine that there will be sudden revenue growth with continuous drip of political stories.

[EchoStache]

Musk has always been polarizing, but can't imagine this won't cause a lot of harm to Tesla.  Sad and shameful if it doesn't, in fact.  What I have seen being said and done lately brings this saying to mind:

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing."

[NorCal]

Musk has always been polarizing, but can't imagine this won't cause a lot of harm to Tesla.  Sad and shameful if it doesn't, in fact.  What I have seen being said and done lately brings this saying to mind:

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing."

I will be mildly amused if Canada places a retaliatory tariff on Tesla specifically. 

[reeshau]

Musk has always been polarizing, but can't imagine this won't cause a lot of harm to Tesla.  Sad and shameful if it doesn't, in fact.  What I have seen being said and done lately brings this saying to mind:

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing."

I will be mildly amused if Canada places a retaliatory tariff on Tesla specifically.

They could, but they have an electric car mandate to think about.  Maybe it would be an opening for other manufacturers.

[Retire-Canada]

I will be mildly amused if Canada places a retaliatory tariff on Tesla specifically.

That ^^ wouldn't make me sad. The Gov't could also setup any incentive programs such that Teslas don't qualify. I can't look at the "T" on a Tesla now and not see Trump.

[ChpBstrd]

Musk has always been polarizing, but can't imagine this won't cause a lot of harm to Tesla.  Sad and shameful if it doesn't, in fact.  What I have seen being said and done lately brings this saying to mind:

"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing."

I will be mildly amused if Canada places a retaliatory tariff on Tesla specifically.

They could, but they have an electric car mandate to think about.  Maybe it would be an opening for other manufacturers.

The one-two punch would be tariff'ing Tesla and also allowing Chinese EVs to be sold in Canada.

These EVs would eventually migrate South and create all sorts of jealousy among Americans who are forced to choose between gas guzzling SUV or fragile-luxury Teslas.

[joemandadman189]

Here is a Tesla FSD demo - I think its quite impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deWN8SZF7N8

FWIW i own tesla stock in my roth IRA and its up 145%. I also put a deposit down on a cyber truck but doubt i will actually buy one, not because i don't want one, but DW wants at least one family car that is 4wd, we barely drive and when we do its 2-3.5 hour trip one way, and the $80k price tag which works against our financial plans. If you haven't seen the whistling diesel cyber truck durability test videos its both impressive and terrifying. He compares a cyber truck to a regular ford f-150.  The cyber truck does incredibly well in some cases and the frame breaks, the bumper breaks off the frame, which is a crazy safety hazard for the few folks who may tow a trailer.

Right now the stock price seems very frothy (PE of 116) and i imagine after the next earnings the lower than expected cyber truck sales numbers may knock the price down and offer a good buying opportunity, but overall i am bullish and think the political nonsense is overblown and irrelevant.

[GuitarStv]

Here is a Tesla FSD demo - I think its quite impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deWN8SZF7N8

I wonder if this is a real video, or another faked/staged 'demonstration' of FSD . . . like the 2016 one that only came to light when one of the engineers involved in the staging came clean?

[joemandadman189]

Here is a Tesla FSD demo - I think its quite impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deWN8SZF7N8

I wonder if this is a real video, or another faked/staged 'demonstration' of FSD . . . like the 2016 one that only came to light when one of the engineers involved in the staging came clean?

i hope not, but we never know - Anyone have first hand experience with the latest version of FSD?

[achvfi]

Here is a Tesla FSD demo - I think its quite impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deWN8SZF7N8

FWIW i own tesla stock in my roth IRA and its up 145%. I also put a deposit down on a cyber truck but doubt i will actually buy one, not because i don't want one, but DW wants at least one family car that is 4wd, we barely drive and when we do its 2-3.5 hour trip one way, and the $80k price tag which works against our financial plans. If you haven't seen the whistling diesel cyber truck durability test videos its both impressive and terrifying. He compares a cyber truck to a regular ford f-150.  The cyber truck does incredibly well in some cases and the frame breaks, the bumper breaks off the frame, which is a crazy safety hazard for the few folks who may tow a trailer.

Right now the stock price seems very frothy (PE of 116) and i imagine after the next earnings the lower than expected cyber truck sales numbers may knock the price down and offer a good buying opportunity, but overall i am bullish and think the political nonsense is overblown and irrelevant.

You made big return from the stock. Good for you. I am not surprised you are bullish.

About the political stuff, are you not concerned that the CEO is openly a Nazi. Do you sympathize with facist, Nazis and why do you think it is all overblown. I am interested to know genuinely.
People tend to buy cars not just for the needs but also to show them off their status. Tesla has had huge advantage over all other EV manufacturers and their revenue growth has stalled few years now, I think main reason is CEO has broken the brand. I think there is large percentage of customers that will not buy a Tesla.

[FrugalToque]

About the political stuff, are you not concerned that the CEO is openly a Nazi. Do you sympathize with facist, Nazis and why do you think it is all overblown. I am interested to know genuinely.
People tend to buy cars not just for the needs but also to show them off their status. Tesla has had huge advantage over all other EV manufacturers and their revenue growth has stalled few years now, I think main reason is CEO has broken the brand. I think there is large percentage of customers that will not buy a Tesla.

They don't believe it.
He can support the AfD party in Germany.
He can throw up two Hitler salutes.


They just make excuses about how the richest man in the world, born in apartheid South Africa, just didn't know what that gesture meant.


Nothing will shake Tesla stock or his fans, so your investment is safe there.

[reeshau]

Here is a Tesla FSD demo - I think its quite impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deWN8SZF7N8

I wonder if this is a real video, or another faked/staged 'demonstration' of FSD . . . like the 2016 one that only came to light when one of the engineers involved in the staging came clean?

Looks pretty good.  One weird thing:  the "stationary child" demo had a car stopped going the opposite direction.  You should normally keep such tests as clean as possible--nothing extra.  This unnecessary (?) addition makes me skeptical.  The reason such tests switched from adult pedestrians to children is that children challenge the perception of scale:  is it a close child, or an adult farther away?  Without true rangefinding, you need to rely on other objects to confirm the inferences.

Show me the same test without the other car, and I will be more confident.

[joemandadman189]

About the political stuff, are you not concerned that the CEO is openly a Nazi. Do you sympathize with facist, Nazis and why do you think it is all overblown. I am interested to know genuinely.
People tend to buy cars not just for the needs but also to show them off their status. Tesla has had huge advantage over all other EV manufacturers and their revenue growth has stalled few years now, I think main reason is CEO has broken the brand. I think there is large percentage of customers that will not buy a Tesla.

They don't believe it.
He can support the AfD party in Germany.
He can throw up two Hitler salutes.


They just make excuses about how the richest man in the world, born in apartheid South Africa, just didn't know what that gesture meant.


Nothing will shake Tesla stock or his fans, so your investment is safe there.

i had to look up what you are talking about, apparently he made a weird hand gesture aka a salute. I don't believe he is a nazi/facist. I think he's just a extremely weird neurodivergent/autistic dude with the ultimate FU money who is speaking his mind, and honestly i think he should stop speaking, be quiet and work on his companies. He is alienating the people most likely to buy his cars, however, Tesla the business should be fine and continue to do well.

And honestly i am sad i posted here and wish i hadn't.

[bacchi]

i had to look up what you are talking about, apparently he made a weird hand gesture aka a salute. I don't believe he is a nazi/facist. I think he's just a extremely weird neurodivergent/autistic dude with the ultimate FU money who is speaking his mind, and honestly i think he should stop speaking, be quiet and work on his companies. He is alienating the people most likely to buy his cars, however, Tesla the business should be fine and continue to do well.

Dude.

Look at the video and consider the context, including his recent actions.

[GuitarStv]

i had to look up what you are talking about, apparently he made a weird hand gesture aka a salute. I don't believe he is a nazi/facist. I think he's just a extremely weird neurodivergent/autistic dude with the ultimate FU money who is speaking his mind, and honestly i think he should stop speaking, be quiet and work on his companies. He is alienating the people most likely to buy his cars, however, Tesla the business should be fine and continue to do well.

Dude.

Look at the video and consider the context, including his recent actions.

Before I watched the video, I was figuring that this was overblown silliness and a probably mistaken gesture.  But watching the actions, I really can't understand another way to interpret Musk's actions.  He very clearly and on purpose did a Nazi salute.  It wasn't like a weird accident.  He turned around and Nazi saluted the American flag a second time immediately after the first.  My assumption is that this was a joke or some sort of grand scale trolling, but it definitely did happen and had to be purposeful.

[achvfi]

About the political stuff, are you not concerned that the CEO is openly a Nazi. Do you sympathize with facist, Nazis and why do you think it is all overblown. I am interested to know genuinely.
People tend to buy cars not just for the needs but also to show them off their status. Tesla has had huge advantage over all other EV manufacturers and their revenue growth has stalled few years now, I think main reason is CEO has broken the brand. I think there is large percentage of customers that will not buy a Tesla.

They don't believe it.
He can support the AfD party in Germany.
He can throw up two Hitler salutes.


They just make excuses about how the richest man in the world, born in apartheid South Africa, just didn't know what that gesture meant.


Nothing will shake Tesla stock or his fans, so your investment is safe there.

i had to look up what you are talking about, apparently he made a weird hand gesture aka a salute. I don't believe he is a nazi/facist. I think he's just a extremely weird neurodivergent/autistic dude with the ultimate FU money who is speaking his mind, and honestly i think he should stop speaking, be quiet and work on his companies. He is alienating the people most likely to buy his cars, however, Tesla the business should be fine and continue to do well.

And honestly i am sad i posted here and wish i hadn't.

That is mind bending. You say he is speaking his mind and he is speaking, enabling, signaling he is a Nazi but you don't think you believe him.

I agree why not CEO just speak less and be a quite Nazi right. we can support his company buying their Nazi mobiles. Would be more convenient.