Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 145182 times)

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #750 on: October 29, 2021, 10:33:37 AM »

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally won’t be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

JFC I'll cut off my own nose to spite my face with the crystal clear fanboyism here.

I love Colorado and I'm a fan of Tesla but your tone makes me despise both of them. I didn't leave my religion to be preached that Tesla can do No Wrong.

Ouch. He didn't say Telsa can do no wrong. He gave an opinion and said he personally wouldn't be selling shares for a few years. Your tone doesn't change my opinion of anything except your character.

MinorMiner

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #751 on: October 29, 2021, 10:34:55 AM »

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally won’t be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

JFC I'll cut off my own nose to spite my face with the crystal clear fanboyism here.

I love Colorado and I'm a fan of Tesla but your tone makes me despise both of them. I didn't leave my religion to be preached that Tesla can do No Wrong.

I remember ripping on the Apple fanboys way back when. Ooops!

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #752 on: October 29, 2021, 11:41:51 AM »
Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

TSLA has a PE ratio of 354 compared to 7 at GM. GM will release 12 electric models in the coming months, and have 20 by 2023.

Tesla’s PE ratio is trending down rapidly. GM has announced 12 electric models, but that includes variants, so it’s really 3-4 distinct models. Announcing bold plans and building prototypes is easy. Scaling to mass production is orders of magnitude more difficult. The limiting factor for Tesla has been its battery supply. Battery supply will be the issue for all OEMs for several years to come. Tesla is best positioned in this regard as well. I’m rooting for the legacy auto companies to succeed. We need to speed this transition as quickly as possible, but count me as skeptical until production of any of these current or planned legacy auto EV models reach scale (100,000+/yr).

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #753 on: October 29, 2021, 11:49:32 AM »
I remember ripping on the Apple fanboys way back when. Ooops!

Often one is most critical of that which one is most passionate about. I don't critique knitting because I couldn't be bothered by it...

I genuinely, truly, hope Tesla makes out to be as good as the market projects for the foreseeable future. Valuation isn't everything (as pointed out very concisely by Waltworks when comparing Tesla and Facebook). Both may have good reason to be at the top of the game... but that might not be a Good thing. I already think that Tesla has changed the market, but I also think that there is some inconsistent analysis done.

For instance: the claim that Tesla is 10 years in front of the competition so of course they are valuated higher than the likes of Ford and GM. Analogies to Netflix and Blockbuster are often thrown around in the same structure. I'm... not so sure. Those have the taste of psychological tricks... all the markings of misplaced confidence that we've seen since tracking the stock market. Just because these companies are 10 years behind in a couple of metrics now doesn't mean they will be in a few years. Hockey stick growth doesn't look all that special until after all the hard work has been put in. It could also be that Tesla is doing all of the hard work of enticing early adopters and some other company will sweep in an reap the benefits. In other words, what if GM manages to become only a year or two behind Tesla technology... but selling 50x as many electric vehicles... how does that play into things? What does 10x better even mean? If the Ford Lightening only has M3 tech in it but is a reasonable price, I'm totally cool with that .M3 tech is already more than I need anyway. Etc. I'm just rambling here.

Also, the analysis of capital flow, debts, etc. all seem off to me. It comes across as a conclusion in search of supporting data. I know ColoradoTribe is just speaking abbreviated here and he/she has undoubtedly spent much more time analyzing more thorough arguments for their opinions. I just don't have much trust of those opinions based off of the religious overtone to them.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #754 on: October 29, 2021, 02:09:08 PM »
How dare you speak blasphemy against Lord Elon!

I’m not here to "convert" anyone. We’re all adults capable of reaching our own conclusions. I could fill a lengthy post on ways Tesla could improve or with things they have gotten wrong, but I feel no need to prove my objectivity to anyone. More importantly, nothing on that list materially effects my core investment thesis. The “competition is coming” is just the soup de jour of the naysayers, some well-intentioned, some paid shills.

Tesla can’t build a compelling EV
There’s no demand
Tesla can’t scale production
The cars are poorly made
The cars catch fire spontaneously
Demand will dry up.
Tesla is going bankrupt
Tesla can’t turn a profit
Tesla can’t turn a profit with government subsidies
Tesla can’t turn a profit without ZEV credits
Demand is drying up (again)


Over the course of all those doomsday narratives, folks have consistently claimed that Tesla’s SP was overvalued. What has been true is that Tesla’s SP has ran ahead of Tesla’s execution at times, but does one really expect to buy stock in a company that’s growing 50% YOY for current value? Of course you’re going to pay a premium. Having held most of my shares for the period of 2013 - 2019, I would argue that Tesla was significantly undervalued for much of that and what folks claimed was a crazy, runaway valuation in 2019 was really the market waking up to what Tesla had accomplished over that period and the SP catching up to that reality.






waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #755 on: October 29, 2021, 02:15:37 PM »
That's true (that people have been/are buying Tesla stock based on what they will do going forward, not their existing sales/infrastructure) but it's also a little misleading, because there's still a ceiling on the valuation *somewhere* even if Tesla keeps rolling sixes and kicking butt.

They're already valued too high even if they were the only car company on earth, probably. So their other ventures are going to need to pan out just as well as the car business, or even better, while the car business continues kicking ass at the same time, in order to put them in any kind of normal P/E range in the medium/long term. Or their stock price will have to stagnate.

That's assuming someone someday cares about P/E for Tesla, of course. Irrational longer than solvent, and all.

I personally hope they pull it off and I'm a pretty big fanboy when it comes to the cars, tech, and CEO, but I don't invest based on hopes.

-W

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #756 on: October 29, 2021, 02:49:28 PM »
That's true (that people have been/are buying Tesla stock based on what they will do going forward, not their existing sales/infrastructure) but it's also a little misleading, because there's still a ceiling on the valuation *somewhere* even if Tesla keeps rolling sixes and kicking butt.

They're already valued too high even if they were the only car company on earth, probably. So their other ventures are going to need to pan out just as well as the car business, or even better, while the car business continues kicking ass at the same time, in order to put them in any kind of normal P/E range in the medium/long term. Or their stock price will have to stagnate.

That's assuming someone someday cares about P/E for Tesla, of course. Irrational longer than solvent, and all.

I personally hope they pull it off and I'm a pretty big fanboy when it comes to the cars, tech, and CEO, but I don't invest based on hopes.

-W

For starters, you are assuming Tesla has the same margins as the traditional OEMs when stating Tesla would need to sell as many cars as all the other car manufacturer’s combined to justify their valuation. In Q3, Tesla’s auto margin was 30%, or roughly double that of traditional OEMs. Ford’s margin was 7% in Q2. Teslas margins will only improve as production scales further at the already existing factories and battery prices continue to drop. The traditional OEM margins will continue to fall as they try to simultaneously design and ramp EV lines, while maintaining their ICE production lines. So, if Tesla ends up making the same number cars as Ford in a year, Tesla will achieve two or three times the profit off the same number of sales. That’s before we factor in energy storage, utility grid services (software), FSD, insurance, solar PV and solar roof, infotainment subscription services, robot axis, etc.

Will all of these business lines be huge winners?  Certainly not, they don’t have to be for Tesla to be successful, just one or two would be enough to double or triple valuation from here. I don’t invest on hope either. I do trust Tesla/Elon and that trust, that they will consistently, if not belatedly, execute their vision, has paid out 35 fold as of today’s close. Also helps to have superior products and engineering talent.

As for PE, it’s rather absurd to value a growth company (50% YOY) using a metric best suited for mature companies. That said, Tesla’s PE is rapidly dropping despite maintaining their rapid growth. Tesla current PE ratio is ~350, down from 1,150 at the endow 2020, and despite the stock price being at ATHs.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #757 on: October 29, 2021, 06:07:45 PM »
That's true (that people have been/are buying Tesla stock based on what they will do going forward, not their existing sales/infrastructure) but it's also a little misleading, because there's still a ceiling on the valuation *somewhere* even if Tesla keeps rolling sixes and kicking butt.

They're already valued too high even if they were the only car company on earth, probably. So their other ventures are going to need to pan out just as well as the car business, or even better, while the car business continues kicking ass at the same time, in order to put them in any kind of normal P/E range in the medium/long term. Or their stock price will have to stagnate.

That's assuming someone someday cares about P/E for Tesla, of course. Irrational longer than solvent, and all.

I personally hope they pull it off and I'm a pretty big fanboy when it comes to the cars, tech, and CEO, but I don't invest based on hopes.

-W

At this point I'd be content with stock price stagnation for a good while. It's happened to TSLA for extended periods before and is preferable to it plummeting and also preferable to selling at these prices, paying capital gains, and missing out on potential future gains.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #758 on: October 29, 2021, 10:38:29 PM »
It's really unfortunate that the legendary investor Peter Lynch wrote about the P/E ratios in his books in the 1990's that inadvertently gave people the false sense of confidence on this indicator.  During the meteoric rise of AMZN and NFLX, their p/e ratios were never "reasonable".  History is a good teacher.  If you study many of the past high performers, you can find many resemblances.  There are many between AMZN, NFLX, and Tesla.  Here's one - the people who work there are some of the best in their fields.  In Tesla's case, they have top talents in software, hardware, chemistry, metal, aerodynamics/physics, on and on.  When smart people get together, they have what Napolean Hill called the mastermind effect that allow them to constantly churn out great ideas:

AMZN - people thought bookselling and later retail in general is a low margin business. You couldn't justify a high stock price. Well, they later brought out AWS, Prime, advertising which all greatly increased their margin.

NFLX - DVD rental? They kept reinventing - streaming, streaming contents from other studios, then started making their own contents; now getting into gaming and selling merchandise.

TSLA - started with electric cars; but somehow optimize the hell out of production to have a really high margin; added insurance business; well they also have the energy business which is just starting; if they get FSD working, it'll be a bonus but I won't count on it. Who knows what else they're going to come up with?
« Last Edit: October 29, 2021, 10:51:13 PM by Niceday »

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #759 on: October 30, 2021, 02:06:55 PM »

TSLA - started with electric cars; but somehow optimize the hell out of production to have a really high margin; added insurance business; well they also have the energy business which is just starting; if they get FSD working, it'll be a bonus but I won't count on it. Who knows what else they're going to come up with?

What am I missing here on the insurance thing? It's been brought up more than once and I haven't had an adequate answer. What is so special about Tesla insurance?

gooki

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #760 on: October 30, 2021, 02:20:47 PM »
Nothing much. Currently Tesla insurance is there to provide competition, so Tesla owners get fair insurance pricing.

Long term it's setting the stage for Tesla to offer robotaxi rides by having the liability already sorted as they have an established insurance relationship, and data to prove the risk.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #761 on: October 30, 2021, 04:49:41 PM »
TSLA has a PE ratio of 354 compared to 7 at GM. GM will release 12 electric models in the coming months, and have 20 by 2023.

*YAWN* The tired "legacy manufacturers will eat Tesla's lunch" FUD has been around at least since 2008. You would think by now at least one of them would be doing it. Even the most well positioned EV competitor (VW) says that Tesla is significantly ahead of them.

GM the "manufacturing powerhouse" started shipping the Bolt in 2016. Model 3 started shipping in 2017. Did you ever pay attention to the relative volumes? GM managed about 2k/month for all Bolt variants in 2017 and has never matched that number. Model 3/Y are being produced at over 75k/month. Number of models is irrelevant. Overall sales and margin are relevant.

Along those lines, GM's overall production/sales are down 30% year-on-year, while Tesla is up 50%. Growth versus decay.

I guess in some ways failing to really ramp Bolt was a blessing in disguise since GM has a recall out on every single Bolt battery pack.

I'll also note that GM has $110,000,000,000 in debt. $110 Billion.

Tesla definitely has their flaws, but I still see no evidence of a real BEV push from most of the legacy manufacturers.

NathanDrake

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #762 on: October 30, 2021, 08:15:20 PM »
TSLA has a PE ratio of 354 compared to 7 at GM. GM will release 12 electric models in the coming months, and have 20 by 2023.

*YAWN* The tired "legacy manufacturers will eat Tesla's lunch" FUD has been around at least since 2008. You would think by now at least one of them would be doing it. Even the most well positioned EV competitor (VW) says that Tesla is significantly ahead of them.

GM the "manufacturing powerhouse" started shipping the Bolt in 2016. Model 3 started shipping in 2017. Did you ever pay attention to the relative volumes? GM managed about 2k/month for all Bolt variants in 2017 and has never matched that number. Model 3/Y are being produced at over 75k/month. Number of models is irrelevant. Overall sales and margin are relevant.

Along those lines, GM's overall production/sales are down 30% year-on-year, while Tesla is up 50%. Growth versus decay.

I guess in some ways failing to really ramp Bolt was a blessing in disguise since GM has a recall out on every single Bolt battery pack.

I'll also note that GM has $110,000,000,000 in debt. $110 Billion.

Tesla definitely has their flaws, but I still see no evidence of a real BEV push from most of the legacy manufacturers.

Nobody is claiming that GM is going to eat Tesla's lunch. Or VW. Or Ford. Or Any other manufacturer (of which there are lots, and most are bringing out EVs at a solid clip in the coming years).

Tesla will likely remain the dominant EV maker. Doesn't mean it is a good investment at these levels. After all, they are priced more than all of them combined. It's a massively speculative bubble.

« Last Edit: October 30, 2021, 10:09:10 PM by NathanDrake »

NathanDrake

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #763 on: October 30, 2021, 08:22:16 PM »
It's really unfortunate that the legendary investor Peter Lynch wrote about the P/E ratios in his books in the 1990's that inadvertently gave people the false sense of confidence on this indicator.  During the meteoric rise of AMZN and NFLX, their p/e ratios were never "reasonable".  History is a good teacher.  If you study many of the past high performers, you can find many resemblances.  There are many between AMZN, NFLX, and Tesla.  Here's one - the people who work there are some of the best in their fields.  In Tesla's case, they have top talents in software, hardware, chemistry, metal, aerodynamics/physics, on and on.  When smart people get together, they have what Napolean Hill called the mastermind effect that allow them to constantly churn out great ideas:

AMZN - people thought bookselling and later retail in general is a low margin business. You couldn't justify a high stock price. Well, they later brought out AWS, Prime, advertising which all greatly increased their margin.

NFLX - DVD rental? They kept reinventing - streaming, streaming contents from other studios, then started making their own contents; now getting into gaming and selling merchandise.

TSLA - started with electric cars; but somehow optimize the hell out of production to have a really high margin; added insurance business; well they also have the energy business which is just starting; if they get FSD working, it'll be a bonus but I won't count on it. Who knows what else they're going to come up with?

This post is survivorship bias.

There are many thousands of more examples of high flying P/E stocks that are either no longer relevant or where the market was right that the companies would be dominant, but wrong on that it expected far too much from their dominance.

You have some of the best examples of where the trade went right. But so many more big names that looked obviously poised for greatness that are nowhere, or maybe are even still very much relevant but still growing into their obscene valuation.

NathanDrake

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #764 on: October 30, 2021, 08:36:59 PM »

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally won’t be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

JFC I'll cut off my own nose to spite my face with the crystal clear fanboyism here.

I love Colorado and I'm a fan of Tesla but your tone makes me despise both of them. I didn't leave my religion to be preached that Tesla can do No Wrong.

I remember ripping on the Apple fanboys way back when. Ooops!

Apple has had a reasonable P/E for a very long time. Not a good comparison.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #765 on: October 30, 2021, 10:20:11 PM »
Nobody is claiming that GM is going to eat Tesla's lunch. Or VW. Or Ford. Or Any other manufacturer (of which there are lots, and most are bringing out EVs at a solid clip in the coming years).

Tesla will likely remain the dominant EV maker. Doesn't mean it is a good investment at these levels. After all, they are priced more than all of them combined. It's a massively speculative bubble.

Tesla's global EV market share has been dropping (now at ~15%). As less expensive EVs come out, it'll probably slide further. Not everyone can afford a $40k+ EV.

GM sold almost as many Wuling Mini EVs as the Model 3. It's a small EV but it's inexpensive and has a 300km range.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #766 on: October 30, 2021, 10:33:57 PM »
It's really unfortunate that the legendary investor Peter Lynch wrote about the P/E ratios in his books in the 1990's that inadvertently gave people the false sense of confidence on this indicator.  During the meteoric rise of AMZN and NFLX, their p/e ratios were never "reasonable".  History is a good teacher.  If you study many of the past high performers, you can find many resemblances.  There are many between AMZN, NFLX, and Tesla.  Here's one - the people who work there are some of the best in their fields.  In Tesla's case, they have top talents in software, hardware, chemistry, metal, aerodynamics/physics, on and on.  When smart people get together, they have what Napolean Hill called the mastermind effect that allow them to constantly churn out great ideas:

AMZN - people thought bookselling and later retail in general is a low margin business. You couldn't justify a high stock price. Well, they later brought out AWS, Prime, advertising which all greatly increased their margin.

NFLX - DVD rental? They kept reinventing - streaming, streaming contents from other studios, then started making their own contents; now getting into gaming and selling merchandise.

TSLA - started with electric cars; but somehow optimize the hell out of production to have a really high margin; added insurance business; well they also have the energy business which is just starting; if they get FSD working, it'll be a bonus but I won't count on it. Who knows what else they're going to come up with?

This post is survivorship bias.

There are many thousands of more examples of high flying P/E stocks that are either no longer relevant or where the market was right that the companies would be dominant, but wrong on that it expected far too much from their dominance.

You have some of the best examples of where the trade went right. But so many more big names that looked obviously poised for greatness that are nowhere, or maybe are even still very much relevant but still growing into their obscene valuation.

My post was to suggest investors to disregard the PE ratios, and find other ways to measure companies.  But then someone used a PE comparison(again) to say my post was survivorship bias. Strange. Looks like PE ratios are very ingrained. Where did folks learn that "low PE is good"? I'm trying to understand how this concept got passed around.

For folks who have been using PE as one of their top indicators, I hope you can consider at least move its importance down.  More importantly, my wish is for new stock investors to not get into the PE trap.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2021, 10:35:49 PM by Niceday »

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #767 on: October 30, 2021, 10:52:36 PM »
It's really unfortunate that the legendary investor Peter Lynch wrote about the P/E ratios in his books in the 1990's that inadvertently gave people the false sense of confidence on this indicator.  During the meteoric rise of AMZN and NFLX, their p/e ratios were never "reasonable".  History is a good teacher.  If you study many of the past high performers, you can find many resemblances.  There are many between AMZN, NFLX, and Tesla.  Here's one - the people who work there are some of the best in their fields.  In Tesla's case, they have top talents in software, hardware, chemistry, metal, aerodynamics/physics, on and on.  When smart people get together, they have what Napolean Hill called the mastermind effect that allow them to constantly churn out great ideas:

AMZN - people thought bookselling and later retail in general is a low margin business. You couldn't justify a high stock price. Well, they later brought out AWS, Prime, advertising which all greatly increased their margin.

NFLX - DVD rental? They kept reinventing - streaming, streaming contents from other studios, then started making their own contents; now getting into gaming and selling merchandise.

TSLA - started with electric cars; but somehow optimize the hell out of production to have a really high margin; added insurance business; well they also have the energy business which is just starting; if they get FSD working, it'll be a bonus but I won't count on it. Who knows what else they're going to come up with?

This post is survivorship bias.

There are many thousands of more examples of high flying P/E stocks that are either no longer relevant or where the market was right that the companies would be dominant, but wrong on that it expected far too much from their dominance.

You have some of the best examples of where the trade went right. But so many more big names that looked obviously poised for greatness that are nowhere, or maybe are even still very much relevant but still growing into their obscene valuation.

My post was to suggest investors to disregard the PE ratios, and find other ways to measure companies.  But then someone used a PE comparison(again) to say my post was survivorship bias. Strange. Looks like PE ratios are very ingrained. Where did folks learn that "low PE is good"? I'm trying to understand how this concept got passed around.

For folks who have been using PE as one of their top indicators, I hope you can consider at least move its importance down.  More importantly, my wish is for new stock investors to not get into the PE trap.

Maybe PEG is a better ratio? It takes into account expected growth.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/price-earnings-peg-ratios


v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #768 on: October 30, 2021, 11:36:22 PM »
Thank goodness I have been investing in VTSAX and got the Tesla rocketship ride without even trying... because I was definitely a doubter 5 years ago

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #769 on: October 31, 2021, 08:09:03 AM »
Unlike many other companies in tech, Tesla’s numbers are relatively easy to forecast. Number of cars, ASP, and either current or predicted margin growth. It’ll become more difficult as more software and other services become a larger part of the sales mix, but sales in 2022 are looking to be 1.6 millionish. 2023 will easily be 2 million+. PE Ratio today on a Company with that kind of growth is a goofy metric. Their cash flow, ROIC, and balance sheet are phenomenal. Other auto makers balance sheets are poor in comparison.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #770 on: October 31, 2021, 11:01:21 AM »
I was thinking a bit about the apple comparison on my afternoon walk yesterday - for some bizarre reason! - and it struck me as being rather apt. there is the phone which is major and a couple of other things, like tesla is a car which is major, and then has a couple of other things.

I think the cachet of the tesla name and apple back then is similar. Then there will be the lesser models from other manufacturers, like the androids. But while people buy fewer cars than phones, buying a tesla for 30k or more vs 3-4 iphones at maybe 1k, is kind of a huge difference.

Seems like tesla is going to be a huge share of market, especially if climate change get a lot of companies to quickly phase out ICE engines. Which I hope for the sake of us all they do, and soon!

And I wouldn't discount the large number of tesla fanboys and fangirls as a huge consumer base and marketing effect. I can't wait to buy mine! But - I am putting it off for a while.

I can imagine the fan club living their lives - moving house to house and always upgrading to tesla roofs, showing off their tesla cars, and generating interest as they go along. Buying tesla for their kids 16th birthdays! lol - they can afford it cuz tesla stock.....

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #771 on: October 31, 2021, 11:51:43 AM »
I was thinking a bit about the apple comparison on my afternoon walk yesterday - for some bizarre reason! - and it struck me as being rather apt. there is the phone which is major and a couple of other things, like tesla is a car which is major, and then has a couple of other things.

I think the cachet of the tesla name and apple back then is similar. Then there will be the lesser models from other manufacturers, like the androids. But while people buy fewer cars than phones, buying a tesla for 30k or more vs 3-4 iphones at maybe 1k, is kind of a huge difference.

Seems like tesla is going to be a huge share of market, especially if climate change get a lot of companies to quickly phase out ICE engines. Which I hope for the sake of us all they do, and soon!

And I wouldn't discount the large number of tesla fanboys and fangirls as a huge consumer base and marketing effect. I can't wait to buy mine! But - I am putting it off for a while.

I can imagine the fan club living their lives - moving house to house and always upgrading to tesla roofs, showing off their tesla cars, and generating interest as they go along. Buying tesla for their kids 16th birthdays! lol - they can afford it cuz tesla stock.....

This is an interesting practice... now maybe on the next walk you can use the common debate tactic and try to think of support the counterpoint (just for kicks- i.e. why is Tesla different from Apple?).

I, too, am highly interested in a MY in the future. I'm kind of waiting because a) I don't drive enough to justify one and b) I'm curious about what is in the piepline for all of the other players. The Rivian looks absolutely amazing for a luxury vehicle (again, can't justify that personally). Volkswagen id4 seems to be the vehicle of choice for those who want an EV but are more traditional vehicle buyers (not tech or performance savvy). Ford lightning looks like it has a lot of utility, etc. I am eyeing e-bikes to get my tech fix- something which undoubtedly benefit from the lower lithium prices driven down in part by Tesla.



TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #772 on: October 31, 2021, 11:59:21 AM »
Tesla's global EV market share has been dropping (now at ~15%). As less expensive EVs come out, it'll probably slide further. Not everyone can afford a $40k+ EV.

GM sold almost as many Wuling Mini EVs as the Model 3. It's a small EV but it's inexpensive and has a 300km range.

Well, yeah - they have to sell something like 10 Wulings to get the same revenue as one Model 3 and have a noticeably lower gross margin. So they need to sell something like 20 times as many units for equivalent gross profit.

Apple is a great comparison - they are nowhere close to the majority of the cell phone market in unit count. They do take the lion's share of cell for profits.

Oh, and your marketshare numbers appear to be incorrect. Got a source? Preferably one only looking at actual BEVs, not lumping in anything with a plug.

Note: I have never bought Tesla as an individual stock and haven't told others to do so. But the analysis is interesting.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #773 on: October 31, 2021, 02:43:32 PM »
Tesla's global EV market share has been dropping (now at ~15%). As less expensive EVs come out, it'll probably slide further. Not everyone can afford a $40k+ EV.

GM sold almost as many Wuling Mini EVs as the Model 3. It's a small EV but it's inexpensive and has a 300km range.

Well, yeah - they have to sell something like 10 Wulings to get the same revenue as one Model 3 and have a noticeably lower gross margin. So they need to sell something like 20 times as many units for equivalent gross profit.

Apple is a great comparison - they are nowhere close to the majority of the cell phone market in unit count. They do take the lion's share of cell for profits.

Oh, and your marketshare numbers appear to be incorrect. Got a source? Preferably one only looking at actual BEVs, not lumping in anything with a plug.

Note: I have never bought Tesla as an individual stock and haven't told others to do so. But the analysis is interesting.

For Q1/Q2:

Quote from: https://www.ev-volumes.com/
A total of 2,65 million new EVs found new owners during the first half of 2021
[...]
Tesla leads global EV sales with 386 000 units (all BEV) delivered during H1, followed by the Volkswagen Group with 332 000 units, thereof 172 700 BEVs and 159 400 PHEVs. GM comes in 3rd with 227 000 units (221k were BEV)

386/2650 = 14.56% of EV (BEV+PHEV) sales

From the 3rd chart, BEVs are 69% of plugin sales, giving us 1.83M BEVs.  --> 386k/1830 = 21.09% of BEV sales

Compare that to 2020 Q1/Q2, where 991k EVs were sold, and 694k (70%*) were BEVs. Tesla sold 180k of those, or nearly 26% of BEV sales.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/

As 21<26, their market share is declining, at least from Q1/Q2 2020 to Q1/Q2 2021.

The Jan-August numbers in Europe show VW outselling Tesla in BEV cars.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/24/q3-saw-europes-ev-share-break-new-ground-above-20-overtake-diesel-for-first-time/

If you have complete Q3 numbers, pls update. From what I can tell, Tesla did regain some ground in Q3. (They ship their cars in batches so their monthly sales are choppy.)

The point being that, as competition increases, particularly on the lower end, Tesla may well lose its dominance. Porsche is an important carmaker and makes great cars but most people in the world drive Ford or GM or Tata.



* Not an exact % for Q1/Q2 but it's remained fairly stable over the past few years.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #774 on: October 31, 2021, 07:33:44 PM »
Tesla's global EV market share has been dropping (now at ~15%). As less expensive EVs come out, it'll probably slide further. Not everyone can afford a $40k+ EV.

GM sold almost as many Wuling Mini EVs as the Model 3. It's a small EV but it's inexpensive and has a 300km range.

Well, yeah - they have to sell something like 10 Wulings to get the same revenue as one Model 3 and have a noticeably lower gross margin. So they need to sell something like 20 times as many units for equivalent gross profit.

Apple is a great comparison - they are nowhere close to the majority of the cell phone market in unit count. They do take the lion's share of cell for profits.

Oh, and your marketshare numbers appear to be incorrect. Got a source? Preferably one only looking at actual BEVs, not lumping in anything with a plug.

Note: I have never bought Tesla as an individual stock and haven't told others to do so. But the analysis is interesting.

For Q1/Q2:

Quote from: https://www.ev-volumes.com/
A total of 2,65 million new EVs found new owners during the first half of 2021
[...]
Tesla leads global EV sales with 386 000 units (all BEV) delivered during H1, followed by the Volkswagen Group with 332 000 units, thereof 172 700 BEVs and 159 400 PHEVs. GM comes in 3rd with 227 000 units (221k were BEV)

386/2650 = 14.56% of EV (BEV+PHEV) sales

From the 3rd chart, BEVs are 69% of plugin sales, giving us 1.83M BEVs.  --> 386k/1830 = 21.09% of BEV sales

Compare that to 2020 Q1/Q2, where 991k EVs were sold, and 694k (70%*) were BEVs. Tesla sold 180k of those, or nearly 26% of BEV sales.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/

As 21<26, their market share is declining, at least from Q1/Q2 2020 to Q1/Q2 2021.

The Jan-August numbers in Europe show VW outselling Tesla in BEV cars.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/24/q3-saw-europes-ev-share-break-new-ground-above-20-overtake-diesel-for-first-time/

If you have complete Q3 numbers, pls update. From what I can tell, Tesla did regain some ground in Q3. (They ship their cars in batches so their monthly sales are choppy.)

The point being that, as competition increases, particularly on the lower end, Tesla may well lose its dominance. Porsche is an important carmaker and makes great cars but most people in the world drive Ford or GM or Tata.



* Not an exact % for Q1/Q2 but it's remained fairly stable over the past few years.

Kinda silly to talk about Tesla market share as a meaningful metric at this time. More accurate to say ICE is losing market share to EV. The size of the overall EV pie is growing rapidly. Tesla is making as many vehicles as they can as fast as they can given their battery supply and factory capacity. Tesla raised vehicle prices multiple times in recent months. Tesla’s production will go from roughly 900k vehicles this year to around 1.5 million in 2022. In the context of 50% YOY growth and increasing margins, talking about market share is really meaningless until the total EV market stops expanding (i.e., eating ICE market share). I’d rather Tesla have 10% of a 50 million vehicle/year market than 25% of a 4 million vehicle/year market (as an example). I’d happily “settle” for that reduced EV market share.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2021, 10:28:03 PM by ColoradoTribe »

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #775 on: October 31, 2021, 09:55:47 PM »
Tesla's global EV market share has been dropping (now at ~15%). As less expensive EVs come out, it'll probably slide further. Not everyone can afford a $40k+ EV.

GM sold almost as many Wuling Mini EVs as the Model 3. It's a small EV but it's inexpensive and has a 300km range.

Well, yeah - they have to sell something like 10 Wulings to get the same revenue as one Model 3 and have a noticeably lower gross margin. So they need to sell something like 20 times as many units for equivalent gross profit.

Apple is a great comparison - they are nowhere close to the majority of the cell phone market in unit count. They do take the lion's share of cell for profits.

Oh, and your marketshare numbers appear to be incorrect. Got a source? Preferably one only looking at actual BEVs, not lumping in anything with a plug.

Note: I have never bought Tesla as an individual stock and haven't told others to do so. But the analysis is interesting.

For Q1/Q2:

Quote from: https://www.ev-volumes.com/
A total of 2,65 million new EVs found new owners during the first half of 2021
[...]
Tesla leads global EV sales with 386 000 units (all BEV) delivered during H1, followed by the Volkswagen Group with 332 000 units, thereof 172 700 BEVs and 159 400 PHEVs. GM comes in 3rd with 227 000 units (221k were BEV)

386/2650 = 14.56% of EV (BEV+PHEV) sales

From the 3rd chart, BEVs are 69% of plugin sales, giving us 1.83M BEVs.  --> 386k/1830 = 21.09% of BEV sales

Compare that to 2020 Q1/Q2, where 991k EVs were sold, and 694k (70%*) were BEVs. Tesla sold 180k of those, or nearly 26% of BEV sales.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/

As 21<26, their market share is declining, at least from Q1/Q2 2020 to Q1/Q2 2021.

The Jan-August numbers in Europe show VW outselling Tesla in BEV cars.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/24/q3-saw-europes-ev-share-break-new-ground-above-20-overtake-diesel-for-first-time/

If you have complete Q3 numbers, pls update. From what I can tell, Tesla did regain some ground in Q3. (They ship their cars in batches so their monthly sales are choppy.)

The point being that, as competition increases, particularly on the lower end, Tesla may well lose its dominance. Porsche is an important carmaker and makes great cars but most people in the world drive Ford or GM or Tata.



* Not an exact % for Q1/Q2 but it's remained fairly stable over the past few years.

Kinda silly to talk about Tesla market share as a meaningful metric at this time. More accurate to say ICE is losing mark share to EV. The size of the overall EV pie is growing rapidly. Tesla is making as many vehicles as they can as fast as they can given their battery supply and factory capacity. Tesla raised vehicle prices multiple times in recent months. Tesla’s production will go from roughly 900k vehicles this year to around 1.5 million in 2022. In the context of 50% YOY growth and increasing margins, talking about market share is really meaningless until the total EV market stops expanding (i.e., eating ICE market share). I’d rather Tesla have 10% of a 50 million vehicle/year market than 25% of a 4 million vehicle/year market (as an example). I’d happily “settle” for that reduced EV market share.

What?

|__|   ---->   |__|



ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #776 on: November 01, 2021, 09:41:18 AM »
Tesla just announced plans to open its supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs on a monthly subscription basis. Pilot program in Europe is now live. Tesla just generated a new revenue stream over night using existing, paid off, infrastructure. Besides the immediate revenue, a bunch of EV owners are now going to be exposed to the Tesla App and the supercharger network. Why pay to access these superchargers, when you could just buy a Tesla and skip the subscription fee?

Guessing GM and Ford will now announce similar plans for their network of Level 3 chargers. Oh wait...


mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #777 on: November 01, 2021, 10:19:09 AM »
Tesla just announced plans to open its supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs on a monthly subscription basis. Pilot program in Europe is now live. Tesla just generated a new revenue stream over night using existing, paid off, infrastructure. Besides the immediate revenue, a bunch of EV owners are now going to be exposed to the Tesla App and the supercharger network. Why pay to access these superchargers, when you could just buy a Tesla and skip the subscription fee?

Guessing GM and Ford will now announce similar plans for their network of Level 3 chargers. Oh wait...

Thanks for the update! I saw it was up again, but I was tired to investigate :).

elon musk - he is a crafy devil for sure.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #778 on: November 01, 2021, 10:51:55 AM »
Tesla just announced plans to open its supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs on a monthly subscription basis. Pilot program in Europe is now live. Tesla just generated a new revenue stream over night using existing, paid off, infrastructure. Besides the immediate revenue, a bunch of EV owners are now going to be exposed to the Tesla App and the supercharger network. Why pay to access these superchargers, when you could just buy a Tesla and skip the subscription fee?

Guessing GM and Ford will now announce similar plans for their network of Level 3 chargers. Oh wait...

Thanks for the update! I saw it was up again, but I was tired to investigate :).

elon musk - he is a crafy devil for sure.

SP currently at ATH at $1,175. Guessing we’ll test $1,200 at some point this week.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #779 on: November 01, 2021, 11:12:27 AM »
Tesla just announced plans to open its supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs on a monthly subscription basis. Pilot program in Europe is now live. Tesla just generated a new revenue stream over night using existing, paid off, infrastructure. Besides the immediate revenue, a bunch of EV owners are now going to be exposed to the Tesla App and the supercharger network. Why pay to access these superchargers, when you could just buy a Tesla and skip the subscription fee?

Guessing GM and Ford will now announce similar plans for their network of Level 3 chargers. Oh wait...

Thanks for the update! I saw it was up again, but I was tired to investigate :).

elon musk - he is a crafy devil for sure.

SP currently at ATH at $1,175. Guessing we’ll test $1,200 at some point this week.

...or today.

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #780 on: November 01, 2021, 11:29:15 AM »
Thank goodness I have been investing in VTSAX and got the Tesla rocketship ride without even trying... because I was definitely a doubter 5 years ago

A lot of small cap oriented funds were buying Tesla during its pre-SP500 days, and this benefitted me, indirectly. My early comments on this thread would identify me as a "sell side" wrt. Tesla, and I'm grateful that laziness kept me from putting my money at risk.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #781 on: November 01, 2021, 11:31:12 AM »
Yet another revenue stream. Mastermind effect at Tesla. That's one of their competitive advantages.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #782 on: November 01, 2021, 12:06:25 PM »
Yet another revenue stream. Mastermind effect at Tesla. That's one of their competitive advantages.

I think the most interesting part of it is that tesla is in a position to make money off the EVs that other companies are selling. Just a shade of genius there I think!

Tesla took the largest EV vulnerability - charging on the road - and turned into an advantage before they went toward become one of the major auto manufactures.

Aside from money and stock and such - it's fantastic to watch a single person's vision change the world in a really positive way. Why he gets away with being such an ass at times. In fact, I sometimes wonder if he is an ass as part of his master plan?

BikeLover

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #783 on: November 01, 2021, 12:16:21 PM »
Tesla now has a greater market cap than the next top 10 (or, by this point, top 20) auto makers combined. Is it in the long run worth more than them, or is this a short-term speculative bubble? Leaving aside the other technological fields Tesla may be expected to achieve dominance in, one way this valuation in comparison with the other companies may be justified in the long term is if there is a high chance that most other auto makers will be bought out by Tesla (before it is dominant enough for antitrust laws to prevent that) or go bankrupt, and possibly, Tesla be in a position to acquire assets at a bargain.

Also, the plants and production lines currently able to produce a lot of cars may be a liability rather than an asset in five or ten years, if they can't be adapted to meet future demands and desires.

Disclaimer: I own Tesla stock. And I sold some of it last week at around 1060, as it had become too great a part of my portfolio.

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #784 on: November 01, 2021, 01:08:50 PM »
IMO the best case scenario for Tesla's auto business is to be like Toyota in the 80s - pretty dominant but far from a majority of the market. Add ancillary businesses and you'd have a sort of international level Zaibatsu.

That's not because it's implausible that Tesla *could* dominate to that extent by being just more awesome than everyone else, but because national borders/protectionist laws and anti-trust laws mean that there's no practical way for that to actually happen.

So for better or worse, I see Tesla's business ceiling as a lot lower than some people here do (it's still pretty freaking high, though). As long as the world ends up a better place I'm ok with that (and I suspect Elon Musk is too). Tesla scaring the bejeezus out of every other car maker on the planet is a great thing - but it doesn't mean Teslas will be the only cars you can buy in a decade or two.

-W

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #785 on: November 01, 2021, 01:19:10 PM »
Yet another revenue stream. Mastermind effect at Tesla. That's one of their competitive advantages.

I think the most interesting part of it is that tesla is in a position to make money off the EVs that other companies are selling. Just a shade of genius there I think!

Tesla took the largest EV vulnerability - charging on the road - and turned into an advantage before they went toward become one of the major auto manufactures.

Aside from money and stock and such - it's fantastic to watch a single person's vision change the world in a really positive way. Why he gets away with being such an ass at times. In fact, I sometimes wonder if he is an ass as part of his master plan?

This really is a genius move.

1) It ensures Tesla will qualify for any available “public” charging infrastructure subsidies.
2) It exposes non-Tesla EV owners to the speed and convenience of Tesla supercharger network. Where these drivers will inevitably chat with Tesla owners and compare products.
3) It discourages the other OEMs from building out their own charging network by beating them to the punch. The other OEMs would have to offer a superior network or an inferior network for a lesser or no fee to compete. Down the road Tesla could simultaneously raise the subscription fee, while offering a year of free charging to new customers who trade in their existing non-Tesla EV.
4) It brings in some additional revenue that can be immediately deployed to further expand their network and deepen their charging moat.
5) It draws further attention to the other OEMs lack of dedicated, level 3 charging infrastructure.

Revenue wise, I did some quick napkin math. Looks like Tesla is charging about $20 USD for the subscription in the Norwegian pilot program. Assuming it gets rolled out everywhere Tesla has built out the network, you could likely see 1 million subscribers in a year or two from now. A million subscribers at $240/yr and you’re looking at nearly a quarter billion of almost pure profit. Only cost to Tesla is some software engineering time and maybe some charging adapters. Brilliant!

Same with the Hertz deal. The Brilliance is not selling 100,000 vehicles. The brilliance is that each of these cars will be giving (free to Tesla) dozens of test drives to folks who may never have sat behind the wheel of an EV or a Tesla. Tom Brady is the spokesperson for Hertz’s ad campaign promoting their use of Teslas as rental vehicles. So, effectively, Tesla has Tom Brady advertising their vehicles and didn’t pay a dime. In fact, Tesla has accomplished everything to date with barely a cent spect on paid advertising. Spending on advertising would be a waste while they’re still supply constrained. Compare that to the advertising budgets fo Ford and GM.

Lastly, while I do have a ton of respect for Elon’s drive and intelligence, I don’t enjoy all his antics. His sense of humor can be juvenile. I don’t care for his politics, which trend toward libertarian. I wish he’d spend less time on Twitter. But none of that really matters because I know EM is laser focused on the mission and I don’t have to love him on a personal level.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #786 on: November 01, 2021, 01:52:14 PM »
Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency

https://outline.com/Tg4HKG

New version is 22% more efficient (i.e., 22% more power from same size tile).

Constantly accelerating the pace of innovation. Hard for the competition to catch up to a moving target.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #787 on: November 01, 2021, 02:27:46 PM »
Finished the day at $1208. Some sort of squeeze is going down. Stock price is over $6000 in pre-split dollars. Still holding 95% of my shares.

There will be an inevitable pull-back once it finds a local high. Probably 10-15%. Anybody want to call the top?
« Last Edit: November 01, 2021, 02:32:41 PM by ColoradoTribe »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #788 on: November 01, 2021, 03:00:33 PM »
Tesla just announced plans to open its supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs on a monthly subscription basis. Pilot program in Europe is now live. Tesla just generated a new revenue stream over night using existing, paid off, infrastructure. Besides the immediate revenue, a bunch of EV owners are now going to be exposed to the Tesla App and the supercharger network. Why pay to access these superchargers, when you could just buy a Tesla and skip the subscription fee?

Guessing GM and Ford will now announce similar plans for their network of Level 3 chargers. Oh wait...

Thanks for the update! I saw it was up again, but I was tired to investigate :).

elon musk - he is a crafy devil for sure.

SP currently at ATH at $1,175. Guessing we’ll test $1,200 at some point this week.

...or today.

you certainly called that one! What a ride!

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #789 on: November 01, 2021, 03:35:29 PM »
Finished the day at $1208. Some sort of squeeze is going down. Stock price is over $6000 in pre-split dollars. Still holding 95% of my shares.

There will be an inevitable pull-back once it finds a local high. Probably 10-15%. Anybody want to call the top?

1221 in post market.




Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #790 on: November 01, 2021, 04:51:21 PM »
Some folks say Tesla cannot have a market cap bigger than the sum of all the auto makers, especially when Tesla EV market share is declining.  This assumes the Total Addressable Market(TAM) is the world car purchases.  That is like saying Netflix's TAM was US DVD rentals(back in the days), or Apple's TAM is world cellphone purchases.  Tesla's TAM is continuously expanding.

btw, capturing huge EV market share is not in Tesla's mission.  What they want to do is spelled out in their mission statement.  Investors need to dig deep to correctly evaluate a company.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #791 on: November 01, 2021, 10:27:29 PM »
Some folks say Tesla cannot have a market cap bigger than the sum of all the auto makers, especially when Tesla EV market share is declining.  This assumes the Total Addressable Market(TAM) is the world car purchases.  That is like saying Netflix's TAM was US DVD rentals(back in the days), or Apple's TAM is world cellphone purchases.  Tesla's TAM is continuously expanding.

btw, capturing huge EV market share is not in Tesla's mission.  What they want to do is spelled out in their mission statement.  Investors need to dig deep to correctly evaluate a company.

I see nothing to disagree with there.  But in context, Tesla's market cap has increased by the equivalent of Ford every week for the last few weeks.  The increase in Tesla's market cap just today is equal to double Honda's market cap. 

I get it. Tesla is more than just a car company.  But there is a lot of future growth priced into the stock right now.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #792 on: November 02, 2021, 03:03:49 AM »
3) It discourages the other OEMs from building out their own charging network by beating them to the punch. The other OEMs would have to offer a superior network or an inferior network for a lesser or no fee to compete. Down the road Tesla could simultaneously raise the subscription fee, while offering a year of free charging to new customers who trade in their existing non-Tesla EV.

Other charging networks offer similar charging without the subscription fee don't they? Tesla isn't the only Level 3 option. To look at it another way, why would a customer pay $20/mo more just to have access to Superchargers if the cost to charge on Tesla's network isn't cheaper? If this ends up being a big money maker for Tesla, it seems like it might encourage others to join in, rather than discourage them.

5) It draws further attention to the other OEMs lack of dedicated, level 3 charging infrastructure.

Does this really matter to EV buyers? Do they care who owns the chargers, or do they just want to be able to charge? Other charging networks have their own issues, but they do exist, they offer similar charging rates, and they're growing just like the Supercharger network.

gooki

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #793 on: November 02, 2021, 03:08:58 AM »
Quote
That's not because it's implausible that Tesla *could* dominate to that extent by being just more awesome than everyone else, but because national borders/protectionist laws and anti-trust laws mean that there's no practical way for that to actually happen.

Japan is the only country I see going full on protectionist as their auto manufacturers struggle with declining sales.

Europe might slow walk autonomous vehicle regulation, but that just means Tesla will build their fleet elsewhere, and then flood Europe when regulation passes.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #794 on: November 02, 2021, 10:36:20 AM »
3) It discourages the other OEMs from building out their own charging network by beating them to the punch. The other OEMs would have to offer a superior network or an inferior network for a lesser or no fee to compete. Down the road Tesla could simultaneously raise the subscription fee, while offering a year of free charging to new customers who trade in their existing non-Tesla EV.

Other charging networks offer similar charging without the subscription fee don't they? Tesla isn't the only Level 3 option. To look at it another way, why would a customer pay $20/mo more just to have access to Superchargers if the cost to charge on Tesla's network isn't cheaper? If this ends up being a big money maker for Tesla, it seems like it might encourage others to join in, rather than discourage them.

5) It draws further attention to the other OEMs lack of dedicated, level 3 charging infrastructure.

Does this really matter to EV buyers? Do they care who owns the chargers, or do they just want to be able to charge? Other charging networks have their own issues, but they do exist, they offer similar charging rates, and they're growing just like the Supercharger network.

I am not aware of another charging network with anywhere near the number of Level 3 chargers. Certainly not with the geographical coverage and density as Tesla’s charging network.

If Tesla makes good money on the charging subscription I do think it still discourages other OEMs from entering the market. The legacy OEMs wouldn’t be able to compete with Tesla’s network until they built out their own network to a competitive level. Tesla has around a 10 year head start, it would take at least a couple years and billions of dollars to get their network to something approaching where Tesla is today. They’d have to spend that money at the same time they’re spending billions to transition to EV manufacturing and while they are losing sales of profitable ICE models. I don’t see how they could even afford to undertake the task, even if they wanted to try and compete. Maybe if there are really generous charging infrastructure subsidies?

Yes, they will care who owns the chargers, because Tesla drivers won’t be paying the subscription fee and will get first crack at open charging stalls in high traffic areas. Tesla is not going to piss off their loyal customers by creating charger scarcity for them. Getting better access and avoiding the subscription fee alone would convince a lot of EV enthusiast to buy a Tesla next time around.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #795 on: November 02, 2021, 11:04:50 AM »
3) It discourages the other OEMs from building out their own charging network by beating them to the punch. The other OEMs would have to offer a superior network or an inferior network for a lesser or no fee to compete. Down the road Tesla could simultaneously raise the subscription fee, while offering a year of free charging to new customers who trade in their existing non-Tesla EV.

Other charging networks offer similar charging without the subscription fee don't they? Tesla isn't the only Level 3 option. To look at it another way, why would a customer pay $20/mo more just to have access to Superchargers if the cost to charge on Tesla's network isn't cheaper? If this ends up being a big money maker for Tesla, it seems like it might encourage others to join in, rather than discourage them.

5) It draws further attention to the other OEMs lack of dedicated, level 3 charging infrastructure.

Does this really matter to EV buyers? Do they care who owns the chargers, or do they just want to be able to charge? Other charging networks have their own issues, but they do exist, they offer similar charging rates, and they're growing just like the Supercharger network.

I am not aware of another charging network with anywhere near the number of Level 3 chargers. Certainly not with the geographical coverage and density as Tesla’s charging network.

Electrify America isn't doing too badly. Their network is open to all EVs, and it doesn't require a subscription, you only pay for the electricity used:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2020/12/06/state-of-electric-car-fast-charging-late-2020-tesla-supercharger-network-vs-electrify-america-vs-evgo/?sh=3ed2c25012e6


If Tesla makes good money on the charging subscription I do think it still discourages other OEMs from entering the market. The legacy OEMs wouldn’t be able to compete with Tesla’s network until they built out their own network to a competitive level. Tesla has around a 10 year head start, it would take at least a couple years and billions of dollars to get their network to something approaching where Tesla is today. They’d have to spend that money at the same time they’re spending billions to transition to EV manufacturing and while they are losing sales of profitable ICE models. I don’t see how they could even afford to undertake the task, even if they wanted to try and compete. Maybe if there are really generous charging infrastructure subsidies?

VW technically owns the EA charging network, and they'd be open to other OEM investors, so a few OEMs could pool money pretty easily:
https://electrek.co/2021/07/07/electrify-america-rumored-billion-partner/

Tesla is the only one that's been proprietary to this point. All other charging is open to anybody. No reason to think that it would be proprietary moving forward. It's not going to be each OEM paying for a bunch of different charging networks, it's going to be Tesla's network against a network that's funded by a bunch of other OEMs, energy companies, "Big Oil" type companies, etc.


Yes, they will care who owns the chargers, because Tesla drivers won’t be paying the subscription fee and will get first crack at open charging stalls in high traffic areas. Tesla is not going to piss off their loyal customers by creating charger scarcity for them. Getting better access and avoiding the subscription fee alone would convince a lot of EV enthusiast to buy a Tesla next time around.

Sure, Tesla drivers might prefer Superchargers for convenience, the possibility of free charging, etc. What I'm suggesting is that non-Tesla EV owners may not be willing to pay a subscription, plus charging costs just to use Superchargers when other options exist that are likely to be cheaper.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #796 on: November 02, 2021, 11:23:31 AM »
Some folks say Tesla cannot have a market cap bigger than the sum of all the auto makers, especially when Tesla EV market share is declining.  This assumes the Total Addressable Market(TAM) is the world car purchases.  That is like saying Netflix's TAM was US DVD rentals(back in the days), or Apple's TAM is world cellphone purchases.  Tesla's TAM is continuously expanding.

btw, capturing huge EV market share is not in Tesla's mission.  What they want to do is spelled out in their mission statement.  Investors need to dig deep to correctly evaluate a company.

I see nothing to disagree with there.  But in context, Tesla's market cap has increased by the equivalent of Ford every week for the last few weeks.  The increase in Tesla's market cap just today is equal to double Honda's market cap. 

I get it. Tesla is more than just a car company.  But there is a lot of future growth priced into the stock right now.

The last time I advocated a buy was on 10/21 when TSLA was at $894 when the risk was much lower(see my post on 10/21).  After the recent run-up, the risk is much higher.  In the long run, the stock is gonna be up and down.  If anyone really wants to build a position now, I would suggest buying 1/5 of what you want to ultimately own and then let it come down and slowly buy a little at a time until you have a full position.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #797 on: November 02, 2021, 11:28:55 AM »
Some folks say Tesla cannot have a market cap bigger than the sum of all the auto makers, especially when Tesla EV market share is declining.  This assumes the Total Addressable Market(TAM) is the world car purchases.  That is like saying Netflix's TAM was US DVD rentals(back in the days), or Apple's TAM is world cellphone purchases.  Tesla's TAM is continuously expanding.

btw, capturing huge EV market share is not in Tesla's mission.  What they want to do is spelled out in their mission statement.  Investors need to dig deep to correctly evaluate a company.

I am not going to speak for everyone, but no one is saying that Tesla absolutely cannot have a bigger market cap. It's not technically impossible or even without precedent. But it does bring up questions about it's valuation. It's a data point that can be a warning sign. Don't you find it odd that the market seems to think that none of the other auto makers combined can keep up with Tesla, ever? It just seems wild to not even question it or vigorously defend it (to me). I get all the arguments about TAM, but they come across as "yes, but" to me... I'm happy about Tesla so far. As others have mentioned, they've done quite well for my VTSAX funds. It's easy to imagine Tesla cars and chargers everywhere in 10 years and they've done a good marketing job for the rest of their vision. It's harder to imagine other companies doing it because it hasn't happened yet... but we're valuating Tesla on things that haven't happened yet (re:TAM). There's kind of a double standard of reasoning in there. And psychologically it's harder to agree to or imagine things that don't fit your worldview or reputation. So folks who are all in on everything Tesla (or are completely anti-EV like my parents) get tossed in with that grain of salt when I evaluate their claims. I would do the same for me, and have the same psychological obstacles in my line of thought, so I am trying to keep an open dialogue.

I really think this quote :

"You are never dedicated to do something you have complete confidence in. No one is fanatically shouting that the sun is going to rise tomorrow. They know it’s going to rise tomorrow. When people are fanatically dedicated to political or religious faiths or any other kind of dogmas or goals, it’s always because these dogmas or goals are in doubt."

– Robert M. Pirsig

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #798 on: November 02, 2021, 12:08:11 PM »
Some folks say Tesla cannot have a market cap bigger than the sum of all the auto makers, especially when Tesla EV market share is declining.  This assumes the Total Addressable Market(TAM) is the world car purchases.  That is like saying Netflix's TAM was US DVD rentals(back in the days), or Apple's TAM is world cellphone purchases.  Tesla's TAM is continuously expanding.

btw, capturing huge EV market share is not in Tesla's mission.  What they want to do is spelled out in their mission statement.  Investors need to dig deep to correctly evaluate a company.

I am not going to speak for everyone, but no one is saying that Tesla absolutely cannot have a bigger market cap. It's not technically impossible or even without precedent. But it does bring up questions about it's valuation. It's a data point that can be a warning sign. Don't you find it odd that the market seems to think that none of the other auto makers combined can keep up with Tesla, ever? It just seems wild to not even question it or vigorously defend it (to me). I get all the arguments about TAM, but they come across as "yes, but" to me... I'm happy about Tesla so far. As others have mentioned, they've done quite well for my VTSAX funds. It's easy to imagine Tesla cars and chargers everywhere in 10 years and they've done a good marketing job for the rest of their vision. It's harder to imagine other companies doing it because it hasn't happened yet... but we're valuating Tesla on things that haven't happened yet (re:TAM). There's kind of a double standard of reasoning in there. And psychologically it's harder to agree to or imagine things that don't fit your worldview or reputation. So folks who are all in on everything Tesla (or are completely anti-EV like my parents) get tossed in with that grain of salt when I evaluate their claims. I would do the same for me, and have the same psychological obstacles in my line of thought, so I am trying to keep an open dialogue.

I really think this quote :

"You are never dedicated to do something you have complete confidence in. No one is fanatically shouting that the sun is going to rise tomorrow. They know it’s going to rise tomorrow. When people are fanatically dedicated to political or religious faiths or any other kind of dogmas or goals, it’s always because these dogmas or goals are in doubt."

– Robert M. Pirsig

There is always a possibility for another company to catch up or even surpass Tesla.  It's also possible that Tesla will fail.  There is nothing certain in the stock market.  That's why you determine the risk and bet accordingly. Never bet the farm on one thing, at least I won't.  Before the huge run-up, Tesla was such an asymmetric bet for the people who saw it - 50% downside, multi-bagger upside.  That's why it has been so heavily debated.  Also, it's not true that no one is saying that Tesla absolutely cannot have a bigger market cap.  If you go back to the thread, you'll see that mentioned a few times.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #799 on: November 02, 2021, 12:54:55 PM »
Before the huge run-up, Tesla was such an asymmetric bet for the people who saw it - 50% downside, multi-bagger upside. 

That's basic stock gambling reasoning, though. Extrapolated to the market, If I invested in every company that had huge potential and 50% downside, I wouldn't make any significant gains because my share of each company would be so small. I would, however, achieve great overall average gains through index investing. In retrospect, Tesla looks like a great investment. I'm not claiming absolutely that it could not be predicted as the earlier scribtions in this thread would "prove" me wrong. I'm saying that in the present, it is impossible to differentiate between that stance and one that will fail. It's literally impossible to predict the future. For every success that "the people who saw it", there is a failure hidden from us. The market in general is growing, so we should expect to have more visuals of wins as there will be more extremes on that tail of the curve as well.

There is also an interesting point about decisions that I like to point out. The outcome of a decision isn't a reliable indicator of the quality of that decision (at least to the point that we emphasize it is). For any complex decision, it is impossible to measure the odds of success because all of the variables can't be accounted for. So we don't know if someone has a 1/100 chance or a 90/100 chance of getting something right. In the former case, if someone alters their ecosystem to the point of doubling their chances of success, effectively a 2/100 chance of getting it right, they may still look like a failure when they don't succeed. Alternately, someone could screw up royally and turn a 90/100 chance into a 5/100 chance, but get a lucky roll of the dice and appear to know what they're doing. There's a lot jumbled in there, and it's kind of admittedly hand-wavy to any success or anyone who had spent a ton of time researching and evaluating Tesla stock. But it is always floating in the back of my head.

I don't disparage people making $ this way... I am just saying that because we can't run simultaneous experiments changing only single variables, it's literally impossible to decipher it beyond conjecture. It's a Schrodinger's cat. And I do think that people should invest in things they believe in. I personally am happy Tesla is doing great but don't have the time or means to evaluate every company I believe in, much less have any re-assuring way of deciphering any outcomes without a heavy dose of luck (either bad or good).

Also, it's not true that no one is saying that Tesla absolutely cannot have a bigger market cap.  If you go back to the thread, you'll see that mentioned a few times.

I worded that poorly: I was intending to say that I personally wasn't saying that it couldn't happen. But followed that caveat by saying "no one" which I typed out habit, which does make my statement wrong. I take that bit back.