Is Tesla a good investment?

[TomTX]

I'm thinking that with Ford and GM now on board with NACS, their buddies in Washington are going to have to allow the NACS network to receive the government funding currently only going to CCS, which is, at this point, dead in the water.

Just as an FYI, the NEVI stations can already have NACS and get funded, they just have to be at least 50% CCS. Easy answer is to just hang two cables off each charger - one CCS1, one NACS.

I think there may be other requirements such as a touch screen display and credit card readers, which seem to contribute greatly to the poor uptime of chargers with those features.  There have a been a number of times that I could not charge on the CCS network due to card readers not working.  Direct vehicle communication seems to be the more elegant solution:

IIRC the requirement is that at least ONE charger per location takes local payment.

[EchoStache]

Past performance does not guarantee future results, obviously.

Having said that, I was not aware that Tesla was the top performing stock from 2012-2022 by any S&P company.  Looking back, I'd say that probably means Tesla has been a good investment?  I'm pretty sure they don't have room to repeat that kind of growth, but 10x would still be quite good.

I have a high stake in Tesla.  About 10%(purchased cost) outside of my index funds.  It has grown to 15%.  If it goes 10x, it will make a not insignificant difference to my stache at retirement.  If it is flat, it won't hurt things much.

Question I'm pondering, should I add to my position by DCA'ing 5-10% annually going forward for the next 6-8 years.  Could be a $500k upside, with a risk of ~$125k not accumulated in the S&P.

[ColoradoTribe]

Months ago, I predicted that Tesla will eventually transition from tech wonderstock to just another carmaker. I said their margins were going to shrink due to lots of electric competition arriving in 2023. In the past few months we've seen massive five-figure price cuts that will definitely affect margins. I said they'd have to start advertising, and Musk just this week said they'll have to start doing exactly that. It's mid-2023 and we still can't buy a Cybertruck three and a half years after its announcement. Meanwhile, Ford has been selling its e-truck for a year now.

There was a case being made 6, 12, and 24 months ago that Tesla had so many entrenched advantages and such a unique product that competitors couldn't possibly catch up. People were multiplying Tesla's projected car sale volume growth of the past against margins from 2021. Back then, Tesla could charge a premium while not advertising and while running operations at 100% to meet seemingly insatiable demand. That view is not aging well and I saw it coming.

TSLA 6-mo return: -7.14%
TSLA 12-mo return: -28.01%
TSLA 24-mo return: -11.72%

HMC 6-mo return: +18.52%
HMC 12-mo return:  +13.23%
HMC 24-mo return: -6.55%

TM 6-mo return: -0.13%
TM 12-mo return: -10.75%
TM 24-mo return: -8.9%

Might be time to update your numbers. Stock up $80/share since you posted the above.

Congrats to the longs!

[mistymoney]

Months ago, I predicted that Tesla will eventually transition from tech wonderstock to just another carmaker. I said their margins were going to shrink due to lots of electric competition arriving in 2023. In the past few months we've seen massive five-figure price cuts that will definitely affect margins. I said they'd have to start advertising, and Musk just this week said they'll have to start doing exactly that. It's mid-2023 and we still can't buy a Cybertruck three and a half years after its announcement. Meanwhile, Ford has been selling its e-truck for a year now.

There was a case being made 6, 12, and 24 months ago that Tesla had so many entrenched advantages and such a unique product that competitors couldn't possibly catch up. People were multiplying Tesla's projected car sale volume growth of the past against margins from 2021. Back then, Tesla could charge a premium while not advertising and while running operations at 100% to meet seemingly insatiable demand. That view is not aging well and I saw it coming.

TSLA 6-mo return: -7.14%
TSLA 12-mo return: -28.01%
TSLA 24-mo return: -11.72%

HMC 6-mo return: +18.52%
HMC 12-mo return:  +13.23%
HMC 24-mo return: -6.55%

TM 6-mo return: -0.13%
TM 12-mo return: -10.75%
TM 24-mo return: -8.9%

Might be time to update your numbers. Stock up $80/share since you posted the above.

Congrats to the longs!

Tsla has really been on an upswing the past month! Rvian joining in the fun.

Rivian to Use Tesla's Charging Network, Follows Ford and GM -- Barrons.com

Another domino has fallen in the battle over North American electric-vehicle charging standards.

Rivian Automotive (ticker: RIVN) announced Tuesday it would adopt the Tesla (TSLA) charging plug and technology. Rivian owners also will be able to charge at Tesla's network of superchargers.

I was like - TSLA up again as the market shows a loss? And saw the Rivian headlines. I was thinking about what a huge buying opportunity this big TSLA price dip was. Wished I'd picked up more, but it is scary to see that volatility! I did pick up some!

[mistymoney]

Past performance does not guarantee future results, obviously.

Having said that, I was not aware that Tesla was the top performing stock from 2012-2022 by any S&P company.  Looking back, I'd say that probably means Tesla has been a good investment?  I'm pretty sure they don't have room to repeat that kind of growth, but 10x would still be quite good.

I have a high stake in Tesla.  About 10%(purchased cost) outside of my index funds.  It has grown to 15%.  If it goes 10x, it will make a not insignificant difference to my stache at retirement.  If it is flat, it won't hurt things much.

Question I'm pondering, should I add to my position by DCA'ing 5-10% annually going forward for the next 6-8 years.  Could be a $500k upside, with a risk of ~$125k not accumulated in the S&P.

only you can answer if the potential reward is worth the personal risk you take in doing so.

This thread is full of extreme tesla for and foe.....so you won't be short of opinoins on the potential!

[TomTX]

Months ago, I predicted that Tesla will eventually transition from tech wonderstock to just another carmaker. I said their margins were going to shrink due to lots of electric competition arriving in 2023. In the past few months we've seen massive five-figure price cuts that will definitely affect margins. I said they'd have to start advertising, and Musk just this week said they'll have to start doing exactly that. It's mid-2023 and we still can't buy a Cybertruck three and a half years after its announcement. Meanwhile, Ford has been selling its e-truck for a year now.

There was a case being made 6, 12, and 24 months ago that Tesla had so many entrenched advantages and such a unique product that competitors couldn't possibly catch up. People were multiplying Tesla's projected car sale volume growth of the past against margins from 2021. Back then, Tesla could charge a premium while not advertising and while running operations at 100% to meet seemingly insatiable demand. That view is not aging well and I saw it coming.

TSLA 6-mo return: -7.14%
TSLA 12-mo return: -28.01%
TSLA 24-mo return: -11.72%

HMC 6-mo return: +18.52%
HMC 12-mo return:  +13.23%
HMC 24-mo return: -6.55%

TM 6-mo return: -0.13%
TM 12-mo return: -10.75%
TM 24-mo return: -8.9%

Might be time to update your numbers. Stock up $80/share since you posted the above.

Congrats to the longs!

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

[bacchi]

Months ago, I predicted that Tesla will eventually transition from tech wonderstock to just another carmaker. I said their margins were going to shrink due to lots of electric competition arriving in 2023. In the past few months we've seen massive five-figure price cuts that will definitely affect margins. I said they'd have to start advertising, and Musk just this week said they'll have to start doing exactly that. It's mid-2023 and we still can't buy a Cybertruck three and a half years after its announcement. Meanwhile, Ford has been selling its e-truck for a year now.

There was a case being made 6, 12, and 24 months ago that Tesla had so many entrenched advantages and such a unique product that competitors couldn't possibly catch up. People were multiplying Tesla's projected car sale volume growth of the past against margins from 2021. Back then, Tesla could charge a premium while not advertising and while running operations at 100% to meet seemingly insatiable demand. That view is not aging well and I saw it coming.

TSLA 6-mo return: -7.14%
TSLA 12-mo return: -28.01%
TSLA 24-mo return: -11.72%

HMC 6-mo return: +18.52%
HMC 12-mo return:  +13.23%
HMC 24-mo return: -6.55%

TM 6-mo return: -0.13%
TM 12-mo return: -10.75%
TM 24-mo return: -8.9%

Might be time to update your numbers. Stock up $80/share since you posted the above.

Congrats to the longs!

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

[TomTX]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

I think it's time to resort to name calling.  If you invest in Tesla... Cathie Wood agrees with you.

Someone who invested from 2020-2022 got hit with a -68% loss last year.  Oh, that's three years, so I guess you have to mention _{^{the net return of +335%}}

I'm sure TSLA fans know that from 2013-2023, the median return was hit in 2017 at +45%.  But the year before that, 2016, was TSLA's second worst year.  You don't hear much about 2016, do you?  Maybe investors need to figure out if +45% median performance is worth risking _{^{a drop of 7%}}?

[ChpBstrd]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

I think it's time to resort to name calling.  If you invest in Tesla... Cathie Wood agrees with you.

Someone who invested from 2020-2022 got hit with a -68% loss last year.  Oh, that's three years, so I guess you have to mention _{^{the net return of +335%}}

I'm sure TSLA fans know that from 2013-2023, the median return was hit in 2017 at +45%.  But the year before that, 2016, was TSLA's second worst year.  You don't hear much about 2016, do you?  Maybe investors need to figure out if +45% median performance is worth risking _{^{a drop of 7%}}?

There is a sense that we're arguing over whether black is a good investment at the roulette table, and citing various wins and losses as evidence. Maybe the better question is whether roulette is an investment.

[ColoradoTribe]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

I think it's time to resort to name calling.  If you invest in Tesla... Cathie Wood agrees with you.

Someone who invested from 2020-2022 got hit with a -68% loss last year.  Oh, that's three years, so I guess you have to mention _{^{the net return of +335%}}

I'm sure TSLA fans know that from 2013-2023, the median return was hit in 2017 at +45%.  But the year before that, 2016, was TSLA's second worst year.  You don't hear much about 2016, do you?  Maybe investors need to figure out if +45% median performance is worth risking _{^{a drop of 7%}}?

There is a sense that we're arguing over whether black is a good investment at the roulette table, and citing various wins and losses as evidence. Maybe the better question is whether roulette is an investment.

Right, cause if you don’t personally endorse an investment then it’s gambling. And no one could have foreseen the rise of EVs or Tesla as the industry leader if you didn’t see it. It all happened by chance like the spin of the roulette wheel. You weren’t dead wrong for the past decade, Tesla investors got “lucky”. Whatever keeps your ego intact I guess.

There is no logical argument to be had on this topic. For any long term holder of Tesla stock it has been a lucrative investment.

6 Month - 110%
1 Yr - 10%
2 Yr - 18%
5 Yr - 1,025%
Since IPO - 20,000%
Since the start of this thread - 1,300%

[ATtiny85]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

I think it's time to resort to name calling.  If you invest in Tesla... Cathie Wood agrees with you.

Someone who invested from 2020-2022 got hit with a -68% loss last year.  Oh, that's three years, so I guess you have to mention _{^{the net return of +335%}}

I'm sure TSLA fans know that from 2013-2023, the median return was hit in 2017 at +45%.  But the year before that, 2016, was TSLA's second worst year.  You don't hear much about 2016, do you?  Maybe investors need to figure out if +45% median performance is worth risking _{^{a drop of 7%}}?

There is a sense that we're arguing over whether black is a good investment at the roulette table, and citing various wins and losses as evidence. Maybe the better question is whether roulette is an investment.

Right, cause if you don’t personally endorse an investment then it’s gambling. And no one could have foreseen the rise of EVs or Tesla as the industry leader if you didn’t see it. It all happened by chance like the spin of the roulette wheel. You weren’t dead wrong for the past decade, Tesla investors got “lucky”. Whatever keeps your ego intact I guess.

There is no logical argument to be had on this topic. For any long term holder of Tesla stock it has been a lucrative investment.

6 Month - 110%
1 Yr - 10%
2 Yr - 18%
5 Yr - 1,025%
Since IPO - 20,000%
Since the start of this thread - 1,300%

But the thread title is "is" not "was" so it is always forward looking. Tesla can both have been all those things you mentioned, and from this moment a complete gamble.

[ColoradoTribe]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

I think it's time to resort to name calling.  If you invest in Tesla... Cathie Wood agrees with you.

Someone who invested from 2020-2022 got hit with a -68% loss last year.  Oh, that's three years, so I guess you have to mention _{^{the net return of +335%}}

I'm sure TSLA fans know that from 2013-2023, the median return was hit in 2017 at +45%.  But the year before that, 2016, was TSLA's second worst year.  You don't hear much about 2016, do you?  Maybe investors need to figure out if +45% median performance is worth risking _{^{a drop of 7%}}?

There is a sense that we're arguing over whether black is a good investment at the roulette table, and citing various wins and losses as evidence. Maybe the better question is whether roulette is an investment.

Right, cause if you don’t personally endorse an investment then it’s gambling. And no one could have foreseen the rise of EVs or Tesla as the industry leader if you didn’t see it. It all happened by chance like the spin of the roulette wheel. You weren’t dead wrong for the past decade, Tesla investors got “lucky”. Whatever keeps your ego intact I guess.

There is no logical argument to be had on this topic. For any long term holder of Tesla stock it has been a lucrative investment.

6 Month - 110%
1 Yr - 10%
2 Yr - 18%
5 Yr - 1,025%
Since IPO - 20,000%
Since the start of this thread - 1,300%

But the thread title is "is" not "was" so it is always forward looking. Tesla can both have been all those things you mentioned, and from this moment a complete gamble.

The question is tied to the date the question was put forth. For anyone who bought TSLA and has held it for any significant period of time, Tesla IS a good investment. It only WAS (past tense) a good investment if you sold.

Saying that the future price and performance of TSLA and Tesla are not guaranteed is only stating the obvious. I would contend, for anyone who bought in March 2018, when this thread started, it’s hard to imagine a scenario given Tesla’s continued growth, where their investment can no longer be considered a success even if TSLA were to plateau at this price.

For ChpBstrd, his/her history in this thread is to ignore (or disparage as blind luck) the past performance over the extended time period they have been arguing against the investment and always pointing to the impending “doom”, based on whatever shifting rationale the media is pumping out that week. They never acknowledge being wrong about their contentions, but move on to their next “concern”. Tesla could go to zero tomorrow and he/she still would have been dead wrong for the past 5 years plus while missing out on 1,000% gain.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

I think it's time to resort to name calling.  If you invest in Tesla... Cathie Wood agrees with you.

Someone who invested from 2020-2022 got hit with a -68% loss last year.  Oh, that's three years, so I guess you have to mention _{^{the net return of +335%}}

I'm sure TSLA fans know that from 2013-2023, the median return was hit in 2017 at +45%.  But the year before that, 2016, was TSLA's second worst year.  You don't hear much about 2016, do you?  Maybe investors need to figure out if +45% median performance is worth risking _{^{a drop of 7%}}?

There is a sense that we're arguing over whether black is a good investment at the roulette table, and citing various wins and losses as evidence. Maybe the better question is whether roulette is an investment.

I wasn't involved in the prior argument, but if you want to lump me in, I disagree that buying shares of TSLA has a 50% chance of total loss.

[mistymoney]

LOL! They haven't been back since I responded to that one suggesting they really ought to include the 5 and 10 year numbers.

Eh? ChpBstrd posted on May 31st. You even replied to that May 31st post. ???

Sorry I wasn't clear. They haven't been back to defend their apparent thesis that Tesla sucks as an investment.

I think it's time to resort to name calling.  If you invest in Tesla... Cathie Wood agrees with you.

Someone who invested from 2020-2022 got hit with a -68% loss last year.  Oh, that's three years, so I guess you have to mention _{^{the net return of +335%}}

I'm sure TSLA fans know that from 2013-2023, the median return was hit in 2017 at +45%.  But the year before that, 2016, was TSLA's second worst year.  You don't hear much about 2016, do you?  Maybe investors need to figure out if +45% median performance is worth risking _{^{a drop of 7%}}?

There is a sense that we're arguing over whether black is a good investment at the roulette table, and citing various wins and losses as evidence. Maybe the better question is whether roulette is an investment.

is that just your stance on any individual stock? because it really dosent seem to be based on anything real.

ron baron is saying 500/share in 2025 (nearly doubling from today's values) and 1500 by 2030 (so sextupling?)
https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/23/02/30771654/elon-musk-expects-tesla-to-be-worth-more-than-saudi-aramco-apple-combined-by-2030-why-1

so - potentially some interesting years ahead for those of us invested.

You've been wrong on tesla for 5? 6? years now? I guess no reason to stop now.....

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I'm listing my pro/con of buying individual shares of TSLA to figure out if I'm going to join the Tesla fan base.  I gathered information from Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, and plugging "TSLA" into Portfolio Visualizer.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio


(pro) Median +45%/year performance 2013-2023.  But we could see another -65% year like 2022.

(con) Forward P/E of 75 with inflation still a risk factor (like in 2022).  Yet from 2013-2019 TSLA had no P/E ratio (negative), and went up over 15x.

(pro) Price/sales 10.3, close to 8.0 median.  TSLA also had 10.3 price/sales in 2013, falling in 2014 and 2015 to hit 8.0.  But it gained +145% between mid 2013 and mid 2015.  Note price/sales was under 5 from 2016-2019, and has tended to fall over time.

(con) 2022 price drops of -38% in Q2 and -53% in Q4.  TSLA stock is very volatile and risky while inflation and recession risk remain.  Yet TSLA stock recovered +135% YTD, showing how resilient it can be (and wiping away much of 2022 losses).

(pro) Tesla is closer to autonomous driving than competitors.  CEO Elon Musk claims it will happen this year... which he predicts every year.  Besides technology, I expect regulatory hurdles for self-driving cars.  But the uncertainty of when this happens makes it hard to price in, which benefits early buyers of the stock.

(con) Several analysts downgraded TSLA last week, with a median price target of $210.  One analyst has a $200 target now... but had $750 last year, revealing their inconsistency.  Even if analysts are right, taking a -18% hit is worth the upside.

(pro) Six months ago, experts were more concerned about winter 2023.  Those concerns could turn into higher oil prices, which shifts consumer demand towards EV (and increases Tesla's profit per car).

Overall, I think TSLA stock is worth buying despite inflation risk.

[EchoStache]

I'm listing my pro/con of buying individual shares of TSLA to figure out if I'm going to join the Tesla fan base.  I gathered information from Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, and plugging "TSLA" into Portfolio Visualizer.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio


(pro) Median +45%/year performance 2013-2023.  But we could see another -65% year like 2022.

(con) Forward P/E of 75 with inflation still a risk factor (like in 2022).  Yet from 2013-2019 TSLA had no P/E ratio (negative), and went up over 15x.

(pro) Price/sales 10.3, close to 8.0 median.  TSLA also had 10.3 price/sales in 2013, falling in 2014 and 2015 to hit 8.0.  But it gained +145% between mid 2013 and mid 2015.  Note price/sales was under 5 from 2016-2019, and has tended to fall over time.

(con) 2022 price drops of -38% in Q2 and -53% in Q4.  TSLA stock is very volatile and risky while inflation and recession risk remain.  Yet TSLA stock recovered +135% YTD, showing how resilient it can be (and wiping away much of 2022 losses).

(pro) Tesla is closer to autonomous driving than competitors.  CEO Elon Musk claims it will happen this year... which he predicts every year.  Besides technology, I expect regulatory hurdles for self-driving cars.  But the uncertainty of when this happens makes it hard to price in, which benefits early buyers of the stock.

(con) Several analysts downgraded TSLA last week, with a median price target of $210.  One analyst has a $200 target now... but had $750 last year, revealing their inconsistency.  Even if analysts are right, taking a -18% hit is worth the upside.

(pro) Six months ago, experts were more concerned about winter 2023.  Those concerns could turn into higher oil prices, which shifts consumer demand towards EV (and increases Tesla's profit per car).

Overall, I think TSLA stock is worth buying despite inflation risk.

 

I personally half ignore the comical noise of "analysts" when it comes to Tesla stock.  Tesla is one of  the most heavily manipulated stock's in existence.  It seems like half the articles published, which flip flop from day to day, are simply to attempt to manipulate the stock with no basis in reality.

I look at the fundamental value and execution of the company....50% YoY growth expected through 2030 until 20 million cars/year are produced.  Highest profit margin of any company even after significantly lowering prices to keep demand high while interest rates skyrocketed.

GM announced that a $30-$40k mass produced, profitable EV is not possible within the next decade.  Really?  Ever heard of Tesla, lol.

CT release and production ramp imminent. 

Next gen vehicle Giga factory underway in Mexico.

Lithium refining factory.

Grid level battery storage business ramping with contracts in the 100's of millions of $.

The above are all sure things that are happening now.  Then you look at the maybe stuff like FSD or Optimus.  These are not priced in but don't even have to be considered to see Tesla grow into the largest and most profitable company in the world.  IMO.

Tesla is relentlessly innovating while already hopelessly ahead of legacy manufacturers.  I really hope bankruptcy/government bailout isn't needed for GM/Ford in the upcoming years.  They talk about attempting to be barely profitable by 2026...meanwhile Tesla will have their current S3XY lineup along with CT and next gen fully ramped with ~6 million EV/year production.

[mistymoney]

I'm listing my pro/con of buying individual shares of TSLA to figure out if I'm going to join the Tesla fan base.  I gathered information from Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, and plugging "TSLA" into Portfolio Visualizer.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio


(pro) Median +45%/year performance 2013-2023.  But we could see another -65% year like 2022.

(con) Forward P/E of 75 with inflation still a risk factor (like in 2022).  Yet from 2013-2019 TSLA had no P/E ratio (negative), and went up over 15x.

(pro) Price/sales 10.3, close to 8.0 median.  TSLA also had 10.3 price/sales in 2013, falling in 2014 and 2015 to hit 8.0.  But it gained +145% between mid 2013 and mid 2015.  Note price/sales was under 5 from 2016-2019, and has tended to fall over time.

(con) 2022 price drops of -38% in Q2 and -53% in Q4.  TSLA stock is very volatile and risky while inflation and recession risk remain.  Yet TSLA stock recovered +135% YTD, showing how resilient it can be (and wiping away much of 2022 losses).

(pro) Tesla is closer to autonomous driving than competitors.  CEO Elon Musk claims it will happen this year... which he predicts every year.  Besides technology, I expect regulatory hurdles for self-driving cars.  But the uncertainty of when this happens makes it hard to price in, which benefits early buyers of the stock.

(con) Several analysts downgraded TSLA last week, with a median price target of $210.  One analyst has a $200 target now... but had $750 last year, revealing their inconsistency.  Even if analysts are right, taking a -18% hit is worth the upside.

(pro) Six months ago, experts were more concerned about winter 2023.  Those concerns could turn into higher oil prices, which shifts consumer demand towards EV (and increases Tesla's profit per car).

Overall, I think TSLA stock is worth buying despite inflation risk.

 

I personally half ignore the comical noise of "analysts" when it comes to Tesla stock.  Tesla is one of  the most heavily manipulated stock's in existence.  It seems like half the articles published, which flip flop from day to day, are simply to attempt to manipulate the stock with no basis in reality.

I look at the fundamental value and execution of the company....50% YoY growth expected through 2030 until 20 million cars/year are produced.  Highest profit margin of any company even after significantly lowering prices to keep demand high while interest rates skyrocketed.

GM announced that a $30-$40k mass produced, profitable EV is not possible within the next decade.  Really?  Ever heard of Tesla, lol.

CT release and production ramp imminent. 

Next gen vehicle Giga factory underway in Mexico.

Lithium refining factory.

Grid level battery storage business ramping with contracts in the 100's of millions of $.

The above are all sure things that are happening now.  Then you look at the maybe stuff like FSD or Optimus.  These are not priced in but don't even have to be considered to see Tesla grow into the largest and most profitable company in the world.  IMO.

Tesla is relentlessly innovating while already hopelessly ahead of legacy manufacturers.  I really hope bankruptcy/government bailout isn't needed for GM/Ford in the upcoming years.  They talk about attempting to be barely profitable by 2026...meanwhile Tesla will have their current S3XY lineup along with CT and next gen fully ramped with ~6 million EV/year production.

lol, you convinced me :)

Bought two more shares today.

[EchoStache]

Nice.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are some good buying opportunities this year.  I'm curious to see what Q2 P&D does to the share price considering they should come in with over 70% increase YoY.  No doubt, the spinsters will find a way to put a negative spin on a 70% sales increase.  Again, I all but ignore "analysts" when it comes to Tesla.

[Mrs. Burning Bush]

Hello all.  Have not read any of this thread but just returned from a month in Europe.  Was somewhat surprised that I saw probably 10 Teslas for every Ford, Chrysler and GM car, combined.  One other antedote:  had an Uber ride in London in an electric Jaguar.  Asked the driver about the car and he said it was superior to Tesla (no idea if he ever even drove one).  He then gunned the accelerator and pinned my head against the headrest.  Impressive.  Carry on!

[maizefolk]

Nice.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are some good buying opportunities this year.  I'm curious to see what Q2 P&D does to the share price considering they should come in with over 70% increase YoY.  No doubt, the spinsters will find a way to put a negative spin on a 70% sales increase.  Again, I all but ignore "analysts" when it comes to Tesla.

I can make an upside case even from the DZ Bank analyst.  Price target now is $200 (-19%), but last year was $750 (+205%).  I don't know about you, but if someone offers me a coin flip of -19% or +205%, I'll take that coin flip.

Was that $750/share stock price target from before the 1:3 stock split that occurred last August?

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Nice.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are some good buying opportunities this year.  I'm curious to see what Q2 P&D does to the share price considering they should come in with over 70% increase YoY.  No doubt, the spinsters will find a way to put a negative spin on a 70% sales increase.  Again, I all but ignore "analysts" when it comes to Tesla.

I can make an upside case even from the DZ Bank analyst.  Price target now is $200 (-19%), but last year was $750 (+205%).  I don't know about you, but if someone offers me a coin flip of -19% or +205%, I'll take that coin flip.

Was that $750/share stock price target from before the 1:3 stock split that occurred last August?

Thanks for the correction - yes, DZ Bank's price target was from July 29 2022.
https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22217074/dz-bank-upgrades-tesla-to-buy-announces-750-price-target

That means a price target of $250/sh post 3:1 split, which I missed.  The last buy rating in Feb 2023 had a potential upside of +20%, which has already happened.

"DZ BANK AG analyst Matthias Volkert maintained a Buy rating on Tesla (TSLA – Research Report) today. The company’s shares closed last Friday at $208.31.

According to TipRanks, Volkert is ranked #7288 out of 8297 analysts."
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dz-bank-ag-sticks-to-their-buy-rating-for-tesla-tsla-1032111313

p.s. - I've removed that post ($750 target) since it relied on a faulty assumption.

[mistymoney]

Hello all.  Have not read any of this thread but just returned from a month in Europe.  Was somewhat surprised that I saw probably 10 Teslas for every Ford, Chrysler and GM car, combined.  One other antedote:  had an Uber ride in London in an electric Jaguar.  Asked the driver about the car and he said it was superior to Tesla (no idea if he ever even drove one).  He then gunned the accelerator and pinned my head against the headrest.  Impressive.  Carry on!

Interesting!

as mentioned before - tesla sightings on the road becoming increasingly common here. It is interesting to watch the landscape changing on this. Way too long in coming, for the environment....

Hoping everyone (Tesla, Ford, GM, etc.) gets those affordable EVs out and in force.

[lemonlyman]

Tesla first mentioned Dojo in 2019 and has been installing in-house designed NN accelerator chips in every car since then. Dojo is finally going into production in July.

https://imgbb.com/99Jg1r8

Tesla will have one of the largest, if not the largest, compute sources in the world. Nothing to see here I'm sure.

[Paper Chaser]

Tesla first mentioned Dojo in 2019 and has been installing in-house designed NN accelerator chips in every car since then. Dojo is finally going into production in July.

https://imgbb.com/99Jg1r8

Tesla will have one of the largest, if not the largest, compute sources in the world. Nothing to see here I'm sure.

Any idea how much data is stored/transmitted? I'm not the most literate when it comes to computing hardware, but I believe early Model S and X had a well known MCU issue where the vehicles had insufficient on board RAM that quickly filled up as data was written. Their solution as far as I know was to  increase the amount of RAM and reduce the frequency that data was recorded. There's still a finite amount of read/write cycles that the hardware can handle though right? Is this new computing power that's always sending and receiving data going to do something similar?

Hopefully they've learned from the past strategies and adopted new techniques for collection, storage and transmitting data. Otherwise all of these extra features just seem like bloatware for the end user that could be a pain.

[lemonlyman]

Any idea how much data is stored/transmitted? I'm not the most literate when it comes to computing hardware, but I believe early Model S and X had a well known MCU issue where the vehicles had insufficient on board RAM that quickly filled up as data was written. Their solution as far as I know was to  increase the amount of RAM and reduce the frequency that data was recorded. There's still a finite amount of read/write cycles that the hardware can handle though right? Is this new computing power that's always sending and receiving data going to do something similar?

Hopefully they've learned from the past strategies and adopted new techniques for collection, storage and transmitting data. Otherwise all of these extra features just seem like bloatware for the end user that could be a pain.

Dojo is a supercomputer to train neural nets and autolabel objects. It's not going to be constantly sending and receiving data with the cars in the way your post reads to me. I don't know what local storage for cars is but USB drives can be added to increase it. I've seen the cars uploading 20-30 GB of video data to Tesla at night, but in practice, the cars run on stable FSD Beta software releases that are pushed over time. Dojo will allow Tesla to exponentially increase the amount of video data processed from the fleet and accelerate the speed of improvement. Since Dojo is designed for that task, it could be much better and cheaper than racks of Nvidia GPUs that are general purpose for developing its large language model with video input like the large language model OpenAI developed with text and images. They've got a 7,360 Nvidia A-100 supercomputer now working on FSD, 7th largest in the world 10 months ago. With NNs, the more compute and data thrown at them, the better they get. They've got years of data and add more annually as production and deliveries grow, but they'll be adding a massive amount of additional compute component to the problem with Dojo. That's my layman's understanding of it.

With the amount of compute they're targeting on that chart (in one year), it looks like they could be developing the AWS for neural net training. Which has been alluded to in past AI Day presentations. Edit: They directly said this was their goal 3 years ago https://electrek.co/2020/09/21/tesla-offer-machine-learning-training-as-web-service-dojo-supercomputer/

[Paper Chaser]

Any idea how much data is stored/transmitted? I'm not the most literate when it comes to computing hardware, but I believe early Model S and X had a well known MCU issue where the vehicles had insufficient on board RAM that quickly filled up as data was written. Their solution as far as I know was to  increase the amount of RAM and reduce the frequency that data was recorded. There's still a finite amount of read/write cycles that the hardware can handle though right? Is this new computing power that's always sending and receiving data going to do something similar?

Hopefully they've learned from the past strategies and adopted new techniques for collection, storage and transmitting data. Otherwise all of these extra features just seem like bloatware for the end user that could be a pain.

Dojo is a supercomputer to train neural nets and autolabel objects. It's not going to be constantly sending and receiving data with the cars in the way your post reads to me. I don't know what local storage for cars is but USB drives can be added to increase it. I've seen the cars uploading 20-30 GB of video data to Tesla at night, but in practice, the cars run on stable FSD Beta software releases that are pushed over time. Dojo will allow Tesla to exponentially increase the amount of video data processed from the fleet and accelerate the speed of improvement. Since Dojo is designed for that task, it could be much better and cheaper than racks of Nvidia GPUs that are general purpose for developing its large language model with video input like the large language model OpenAI developed with text and images. They've got a 7,360 Nvidia A-100 supercomputer now working on FSD, 7th largest in the world 10 months ago. With NNs, the more compute and data thrown at them, the better they get. They've got years of data and add more annually as production and deliveries grow, but they'll be adding a massive amount of additional compute component to the problem with Dojo. That's my layman's understanding of it.

With the amount of compute they're targeting on that chart (in one year), it looks like they could be developing the AWS for neural net training. Which has been alluded to in past AI Day presentations. Edit: They directly said this was their goal 3 years ago https://electrek.co/2020/09/21/tesla-offer-machine-learning-training-as-web-service-dojo-supercomputer/

Ah. Thanks for clearing that up for me!

[mistymoney]

Volvo added to list of those who will have access to tesla charging networks......

second-quarter deliveries numbers expected this weekend. Wall Street is looking for 445,000 deliveries for the period,

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-reports-uptick-in-vehicle-deliveries-after-price-cuts-981863fd

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lordstown-motors-bankruptcy-sues-foxconn-5c7a0f46
AUTOS INDUSTRY
Lordstown Motors, Once Considered an Ohio Town’s Savior, Files for Bankruptcy
EV startup wooed investors during SPAC boom but failed to deliver on its lofty promises

Q2 earnings scheduled for July 18th. Not sure what to hope for, lol! If bad news will scoop up some more if a good dip :)

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I'm listing my pro/con of buying individual shares of TSLA to figure out if I'm going to join the Tesla fan base.
...
Overall, I think TSLA stock is worth buying despite inflation risk.

While it's better to buy before a stock doubles (TSLA +108% YTD), it also confirms the stock can recover quickly.  I bought shares of TSLA yesterday.

[FrugalSaver]

I mostly missed the boat on Amazon, a company I thought had promise Long long ago. A DCA approach there would have yielded a fortune

Tesla intends to be more than just a car company. It’s woefully unprofitable. However, so has been amazon throughout its life.

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now? I’m considering allocating 6% of new money and buying in every week or month.

Thoughts?

Prescient

[mistymoney]

I mostly missed the boat on Amazon, a company I thought had promise Long long ago. A DCA approach there would have yielded a fortune

Tesla intends to be more than just a car company. It’s woefully unprofitable. However, so has been amazon throughout its life.

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now? I’m considering allocating 6% of new money and buying in every week or month.

Thoughts?

Prescient

Very! I didn't read the thread from the beginning - did you buy? how much? how much worth now? :)

[bacchi]

Q2 earnings scheduled for July 18th. Not sure what to hope for, lol! If bad news will scoop up some more if a good dip :)

Sales will be up, tracking 1.8M/year, but EPS will decrease. Profit margins may even be below Q1, based on discounts and incentives. European sales will be up slightly and China will be up 13-15% (but, again, revenue increases and profit/car decreases). US sales...? Probably up but not a lot, given Tesla's push to clear inventory and free charging.

While that's not bad news, the question is whether that's already priced into the stock. The Q1 profit margin surprise saw a drop from $207 on 3/31 to $164 a month later.

[mistymoney]

Q2 earnings scheduled for July 18th. Not sure what to hope for, lol! If bad news will scoop up some more if a good dip :)

Sales will be up, tracking 1.8M/year, but EPS will decrease. Profit margins may even be below Q1, based on discounts and incentives. European sales will be up slightly and China will be up 13-15% (but, again, revenue increases and profit/car decreases). US sales...? Probably up but not a lot, given Tesla's push to clear inventory and free charging.

While that's not bad news, the question is whether that's already priced into the stock. The Q1 profit margin surprise saw a drop from $207 on 3/31 to $164 a month later.

Thanks for info! My thoughts were more internal than that. While good news would be good and maybe spike the price, at some level I was kind of wondering if I'd prefer less than stellar news for a price dip to pick up my next 2 shares......

[mistymoney]

second-quarter deliveries numbers expected this weekend. Wall Street is looking for 445,000 deliveries for the period,

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-reports-uptick-in-vehicle-deliveries-after-price-cuts-981863fd

tesla posted on twitter there were 466k deliveries for Q2 vs the 445k the above quote said wall street was looking for.....nearly 5% above that expectation. Interesting

Tesla Deliveries Rise 83% in Quarter, Lifted by Price Cuts and Discounts -- WSJ
1:24 pm ET July 2, 2023 (Dow Jones) Print
By Rebecca Elliott

Tesla global deliveries surged 83% in the second quarter, helped by sharp price cuts and hefty discounts as the electric-car maker chases growth in an increasingly competitive marketplace.

The car company led by billionaire Elon Musk said Sunday that it delivered more than 466,000 vehicles to customers worldwide in the April-to-June period, a record quarter for sales.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecasted Tesla would deliver about 445,000 vehicles.

[mistymoney]

tesla up 6% at the moment....so looks like the 5% plus a little?

[mistymoney]

lol! was wondering if it would hold till market close.....market already closed!

[ColoradoTribe]

Q2 earnings scheduled for July 18th. Not sure what to hope for, lol! If bad news will scoop up some more if a good dip :)

Sales will be up, tracking 1.8M/year, but EPS will decrease. Profit margins may even be below Q1, based on discounts and incentives. European sales will be up slightly and China will be up 13-15% (but, again, revenue increases and profit/car decreases). US sales...? Probably up but not a lot, given Tesla's push to clear inventory and free charging.

While that's not bad news, the question is whether that's already priced into the stock. The Q1 profit margin surprise saw a drop from $207 on 3/31 to $164 a month later.

Can I borrow your crystal ball? Way too many variables to make predictions that aren’t speculation. Yes, there was some discounting at the beginning of the quarter that will reduce ASP over Q1. There are several factors that could make up for those price cuts.

COGS going down with reduced raw material prices and cost of new factories being spread out over more units.
Production has become more localized with new factories ramping in NA and Europe. Reducing transport and tariff costs.
Currency exchange rates can greatly effect margins.
Tesla energy continues to scale rapidly with healthy margins.
Q2 compared to Q1 saw almost twice as many high-margin X and S vehicles delivered.
Tesla continues to unwind the delivery wave, doing away with costly (logistically) late quarter pushes. Also means more cars shown as inventory at waters end.
Tesla continues to execute on plans to reduce production costs through greater manufacturing efficiencies for both vehicles and batteries.
How much deferred revenue did Tesla recognize this quarter from FSD and enabling of new functionality or new users.

I’m not predicting wether margins or ESP will go up or down compared to Q1, but I know enough to know what I don’t know. What I do know is the long term trajectory and growth of the company, so I’ll either celebrate an earnings beat or buy the dip.

[bacchi]

Q2 earnings scheduled for July 18th. Not sure what to hope for, lol! If bad news will scoop up some more if a good dip :)

Sales will be up, tracking 1.8M/year, but EPS will decrease. Profit margins may even be below Q1, based on discounts and incentives. European sales will be up slightly and China will be up 13-15% (but, again, revenue increases and profit/car decreases). US sales...? Probably up but not a lot, given Tesla's push to clear inventory and free charging.

While that's not bad news, the question is whether that's already priced into the stock. The Q1 profit margin surprise saw a drop from $207 on 3/31 to $164 a month later.

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

No, it's attuned to me.

[AdrianC]

RWD LFP Tesla Model Y Could Slash Price By $4,850, Driving US Sales To The Next Level
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/06/24/rwd-lfp-tesla-model-y-could-slash-price-by-4850-driving-us-sales-to-the-next-level/

Looks good. This is what I've been wanting them to do.
I loved the Model 3 RWD I rented, but we need more room. 260 miles range is fine. Don't need AWD (most people don't).

[Paper Chaser]

I loved the Model 3 RWD I rented, but we need more room.

Model 3 and Model Y are very close in size. The Y does get about 5 inches more leg room in the second row (with a wheelbase that's just half an inch longer), and about 13 cu ft more cargo capacity, but they'll probably feel very similar. Just make sure that the Y gives you enough "more room"

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-56562137-FC31-4110-A13C-9A9FC6657BF0.html

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-E47C4A6D-528E-419C-8C57-FD3864644C34.html

[AdrianC]

It's the hatchback I want. If the 3 were a hatch I'd probably buy it. As is, the trunk opening is too small.

[waltworks]

13 cubic feet is a lot!

Our Nissan Leaf hack for more space has been a big rocket box. It hurts range/efficiency on the highway by maybe 10% which is significant, but it makes the care usable for 5 people for ski/bike outings or overnight trips where we need to bring significant amounts of clothing/gear. It takes maybe 3-4 minutes to install or remove so it just lives in the corner of the garage when we don't need it.

-W

[mistymoney]

earnings tonight!

any predictions?


I could see it going either way, honestly. higher volume and lower earnings....or they had that margin figured out better than we did and earnings will be better than we are thinking....

Also very interested in seeing what the earnings are on tesla energy....last time was a huge jump...will it continue?

[ChickenStash]

Didn't see this news about Nissan posted before...

Similar to Ford, General Motors, and Volvo, Nissan will first provide NACS adapters for its 2024 model-year Ariyas, before integrating NACS ports into its 2025 model-year EVs.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44588499/nissan-adopts-tesla-charging-for-electric-vehicles/

With more companies jumping on the same connector standard and getting more access to the Tesla supercharging network, it will be interesting to see how that impacts Tesla sales and bottom line.

[mistymoney]

Didn't see this news about Nissan posted before...

Similar to Ford, General Motors, and Volvo, Nissan will first provide NACS adapters for its 2024 model-year Ariyas, before integrating NACS ports into its 2025 model-year EVs.

https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44588499/nissan-adopts-tesla-charging-for-electric-vehicles/

With more companies jumping on the same connector standard and getting more access to the Tesla supercharging network, it will be interesting to see how that impacts Tesla sales and bottom line.

Maybe in a year or so......took a bit of dive after ok earnings.....

[ColoradoTribe]

Biggest takeaways from Tesla earnings call for me:

1) Tesla Energy margins jumped from 10% to 18%, and are now on par with auto margins. Tesla Energy revenue was flat, but those energy storage products are lumpy as far as their timing and completion. I expect Tesla Energy will continue to grow rapidly and if 18% margins are here to stay that is huge. Suspect the IRA may be playing a role here along with scaling.

2) New version of 4680 cells are 10% more efficient with the same weight. Every vehicle with 4680s can now get the same range with 10% were cells or gained 10% range on the same number of cells. This is one of those things that Wall Street glosses over, but it’s this constant improvements in efficiencies and process that drive Tesla’s success.

3) ASP and auto margins about as expected. EPS a clear beat. Tesla demonstrating that can grow earnings even as they lower ASP to grow market share.

4) Not related to earnings, but Ford lowered ASPs on the F-150 Lightning series despite losing money on every one they make currently. Timing suggests Ford knows it can’t compete with the Tesla CyberTruck on pricing and specs and want to clear inventory before the CTs starts mass production in the coming months.

5) Wall Street freaks out over planned production down time in Q3 to retool auto production lines. Again, missing the big picture that the retooled lines will produce more and/or cheaper EVs (project Highland).

[bacchi]

3) ASP and auto margins about as expected. EPS a clear beat. Tesla demonstrating that can grow earnings even as they lower ASP to grow market share.

Yeah, a decrease was expected by some people. I guess you came around?

I’m not predicting wether margins or ESP will go up or down compared to Q1, but I know enough to know what I don’t know.

5) Wall Street freaks out over planned production down time in Q3 to retool auto production lines. Again, missing the big picture that the retooled lines will produce more and/or cheaper EVs (project Highland).

A stock doesn't drop nearly 10% the day after earnings because of production line re-tooling. It's about margins and the Cybertruck.

KEVIN PAFFRATH: No, Wall Street never has it right when it comes to Tesla. They, however, are right in the short term, right? [...] They care about near-term margin, near-term profit.

And what did we hear? Well, we didn't hear, as you mentioned yourself, a date on the Cybertruck.

JOSH SCHAFER: And what did people care about on the call? Gross margins.
[...]
PRAS SUBRAMANIAN: --you see the trend? It's trending lower. The question is, is this the bottom? And there was no answer to that. The stock was up a lot. I'm not surprised of the 10% drop here.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-stocks-nasdaq-sp-500-futures-fall-after-q2-reports-by-tesla-netflix
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/tesla-stock-falls-on-slim-margins-cybertruck-concerns.html
https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/19/tesla-hits-25b-in-q2-revenue-but-margins-decrease-amid-price-cuts/
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3989395-tesla-skids-10-after-earnings-disappoint-and-drags-down-other-ev-stocks
Etc., etc.


Tesla has a tell when it comes to earnings results. I'll leave the reader to puzzle out what it is.

[lemonlyman]

Tesla has a tell when it comes to earnings results. I'll leave the reader to puzzle out what it is.

On the kinds of swings TSLA makes, this guy should be very rich with this knowledge.

[mistymoney]

Tesla has a tell when it comes to earnings results. I'll leave the reader to puzzle out what it is.

On the kinds of swings TSLA makes, this guy should be very rich with this knowledge.

seriously!!

[mistymoney]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/26/teslas-record-breaking-earnings-report-what-every/

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/25/1-chart-that-shows-where-tesla-is-headed/

motley fool kind having nice things to say about tesla? I think they were not fans originally.....seems a bit wishy washy still...

ETA: meant to say NOT fans!!