Is Tesla a good investment?

[ColoradoTribe]

https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/the-trouble-with-nomads.html

Interesting. Seems to confirm Tesla is taking market share from legacy ICE. Not losing EV share to competitors.

[mistymoney]

https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/the-trouble-with-nomads.html

Interesting. Seems to confirm Tesla is taking market share from legacy ICE. Not losing EV share to competitors.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/business/ford-mustang-mach-e-pricing/index.html

Ford boosts production of its flagship EV and drops prices to compete with Tesla

[TomTX]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

[maizefolk]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

I agree with this point.

A number of options (I'm thinking of the FSD upgrade in particular) can be purchased as upgrades delivered by software after the point of purchase, which I expect gives folks a bit more room to keep the initial purchase price under the tax credit cap (and the price tag on a model 3 performance leaves JUST enough headroom to order in a color other than white and still qualify).

[PDXTabs]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

Isn't the cap for the mach-e $80k because they got it classified as an SUV?

[TomTX]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

Isn't the cap for the mach-e $80k because they got it classified as an SUV?

Not under the current IRS guidelines. Both the Mach-e and Escape are at the $55k cap.

...which just further demonstrates how dumb and arbitrary the IRS car/SUV dividing line is. Almost as dumb as the "Model Y isn't an SUV, unless you get the optional kid seats in the back, then it is". Another example: most ID.4 variants have the $55k cap, but if it has AWD it gets the $80k cap. Note that AWD on a Model Y doesn't make it an SUV...

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-for-new-qualified-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

[mistymoney]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

Isn't the cap for the mach-e $80k because they got it classified as an SUV?

Not under the current IRS guidelines. Both the Mach-e and Escape are at the $55k cap.

...which just further demonstrates how dumb and arbitrary the IRS car/SUV dividing line is. Almost as dumb as the "Model Y isn't an SUV, unless you get the optional kid seats in the back, then it is". Another example: most ID.4 variants have the $55k cap, but if it has AWD it gets the $80k cap. Note that AWD on a Model Y doesn't make it an SUV...

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-for-new-qualified-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

that is a bit crazy!

[soulpatchmike]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

Isn't the cap for the mach-e $80k because they got it classified as an SUV?

Not under the current IRS guidelines. Both the Mach-e and Escape are at the $55k cap.

...which just further demonstrates how dumb and arbitrary the IRS car/SUV dividing line is. Almost as dumb as the "Model Y isn't an SUV, unless you get the optional kid seats in the back, then it is". Another example: most ID.4 variants have the $55k cap, but if it has AWD it gets the $80k cap. Note that AWD on a Model Y doesn't make it an SUV...

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-for-new-qualified-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

I can't find the reference but read somewhere when the IRS list first came out that weight is the trigger for the $80k cap.  If the weight doesn't meet a certain threshold it gets the $55k cap.  Adding the seats makes the Model Y heavy enough to qualify.  Adding AWD makes the ID.4 heavy enough.  Seems pretty dumb, I would think interior volume would be a better metric, but they didn't consult me...

[StashingAway]

Autoblog: Teslas are so expensive to repair, insurers are writing them off, which is driving up insurance for Tesla owners.

What's driving the expense to repair?  Is it the one piece frame, the electronics, or something else?

Here's an interesting case of what should have been a simple fix nearly totaling a Model 3: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters Basically, a flange integrated into the modeled battery pack (instead of a replaceable part) that was cracked by road debris.

Yikes!  So are most of these problems caused by poor engineering then?

Tesla is quite interesting in this aspect. They develop cars more like software. I.E they push out updates and fixes in real time as they are fixed. They do this with their mechanical systems. So if they find that their door handle mechanism is expensive or breaking a lot, they will update it, change the assembly line and essentially fix it live and whatever month that part becomes available to do so. So if you get an M3 in June it might have different parts in it than if you got one off the same line in July.

Legacy auto for the most part tests and releases cars as whole systems. So if you get a 2023 Colrolla, it will be the same as every other 2023 Corolla. They will make recalls or fixes for safety features, but this is also done to the entire set of vehicles that are recalled.

This has a lot of downline effects. There are some really cools aspects to the Tesla method. Disregarding their questionable stunts with supply line problems with Covid, their cars are continuously improving. So despite ad 2020 M3 looking just like a 2023 one, the 2023 will have many improvements that aren't hampered by model year. They don't have to stick with old designs if their engineers can come up with better ones and can more easily manage supply lines as they don't have to coordinate them as much.

The downsides are also apparent. For those used to working on vehicles, you can usually walk into any auto parts store and tell them your year/make/model of car (and perhaps a trim level), and they will 99% of the time be able to get you the right part for that car. For a Tesla, it's a crapshoot. No one (including Tesla) knows which parts your car has. Sometimes the newer part will fit, sometimes it won't... in 10 years the forums for these cars are going to be full of people just trying to identify model parts to keep them running.

It also effectively makes the customer the tester in Tesla vehicles. Tesla does significantly less testing before releasing a product, and why should they? their customers don't seem to mind! Toyota, GM, etc. all do extensive testing of their vehicles as whole units before releasing them. It's part of the reason they do model years, as when they do updates it is after a series of extensive tests of the product working in different conditions.

I'm a bit torn on which method I think is better for vehicles- I would prefer to be an engineer for Tesla because it would be fun to just make new things without coordinating as much with release dates.

[GuitarStv]

Autoblog: Teslas are so expensive to repair, insurers are writing them off, which is driving up insurance for Tesla owners.

What's driving the expense to repair?  Is it the one piece frame, the electronics, or something else?

Here's an interesting case of what should have been a simple fix nearly totaling a Model 3: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters Basically, a flange integrated into the modeled battery pack (instead of a replaceable part) that was cracked by road debris.

Yikes!  So are most of these problems caused by poor engineering then?

Tesla is quite interesting in this aspect. They develop cars more like software. I.E they push out updates and fixes in real time as they are fixed. They do this with their mechanical systems. So if they find that their door handle mechanism is expensive or breaking a lot, they will update it, change the assembly line and essentially fix it live and whatever month that part becomes available to do so. So if you get an M3 in June it might have different parts in it than if you got one off the same line in July.

Legacy auto for the most part tests and releases cars as whole systems. So if you get a 2023 Colrolla, it will be the same as every other 2023 Corolla. They will make recalls or fixes for safety features, but this is also done to the entire set of vehicles that are recalled.

This has a lot of downline effects. There are some really cools aspects to the Tesla method. Disregarding their questionable stunts with supply line problems with Covid, their cars are continuously improving. So despite ad 2020 M3 looking just like a 2023 one, the 2023 will have many improvements that aren't hampered by model year. They don't have to stick with old designs if their engineers can come up with better ones and can more easily manage supply lines as they don't have to coordinate them as much.

The downsides are also apparent. For those used to working on vehicles, you can usually walk into any auto parts store and tell them your year/make/model of car (and perhaps a trim level), and they will 99% of the time be able to get you the right part for that car. For a Tesla, it's a crapshoot. No one (including Tesla) knows which parts your car has. Sometimes the newer part will fit, sometimes it won't... in 10 years the forums for these cars are going to be full of people just trying to identify model parts to keep them running.

It also effectively makes the customer the tester in Tesla vehicles. Tesla does significantly less testing before releasing a product, and why should they? their customers don't seem to mind! Toyota, GM, etc. all do extensive testing of their vehicles as whole units before releasing them. It's part of the reason they do model years, as when they do updates it is after a series of extensive tests of the product working in different conditions.

I'm a bit torn on which method I think is better for vehicles- I would prefer to be an engineer for Tesla because it would be fun to just make new things without coordinating as much with release dates.

Downside seems pretty significantly to outweigh the benefit.  I've been driving the same car for coming up on 20 years now.  Couldn't do that without readily available spare parts.  I don't care if my door latch works 3% better than the previous door latch . . . if my door will no longer shut and I can't replace the part ten years from now.  Seems like a terrible vehicle to own if you're interested in longevity then?

If their car becomes effectively disposable because of a lack of available parts, does that mean that in the long run Teslas will end up worse for the environment than ICE vehicles?

[PDXTabs]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

Isn't the cap for the mach-e $80k because they got it classified as an SUV?

Not under the current IRS guidelines. Both the Mach-e and Escape are at the $55k cap.

...which just further demonstrates how dumb and arbitrary the IRS car/SUV dividing line is. Almost as dumb as the "Model Y isn't an SUV, unless you get the optional kid seats in the back, then it is". Another example: most ID.4 variants have the $55k cap, but if it has AWD it gets the $80k cap. Note that AWD on a Model Y doesn't make it an SUV...

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-for-new-qualified-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

that is a bit crazy!

So we already had federal laws and regulations defining what an SUV was (NHTSA, etc) and now we have a different definition for tax purposes... Kind of OT but I refuse to vote for any of these clowns. Not to mention the horrible incentive to make heavier cars that do more damage to the roads and carry more kinetic energy into crashes. Very weird market incentives that will impact this investing decision.

[theoverlook]

Autoblog: Teslas are so expensive to repair, insurers are writing them off, which is driving up insurance for Tesla owners.

What's driving the expense to repair?  Is it the one piece frame, the electronics, or something else?

Here's an interesting case of what should have been a simple fix nearly totaling a Model 3: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters Basically, a flange integrated into the modeled battery pack (instead of a replaceable part) that was cracked by road debris.

Yikes!  So are most of these problems caused by poor engineering then?

Tesla is quite interesting in this aspect. They develop cars more like software. I.E they push out updates and fixes in real time as they are fixed. They do this with their mechanical systems. So if they find that their door handle mechanism is expensive or breaking a lot, they will update it, change the assembly line and essentially fix it live and whatever month that part becomes available to do so. So if you get an M3 in June it might have different parts in it than if you got one off the same line in July.

Legacy auto for the most part tests and releases cars as whole systems. So if you get a 2023 Colrolla, it will be the same as every other 2023 Corolla. They will make recalls or fixes for safety features, but this is also done to the entire set of vehicles that are recalled.

This has a lot of downline effects. There are some really cools aspects to the Tesla method. Disregarding their questionable stunts with supply line problems with Covid, their cars are continuously improving. So despite ad 2020 M3 looking just like a 2023 one, the 2023 will have many improvements that aren't hampered by model year. They don't have to stick with old designs if their engineers can come up with better ones and can more easily manage supply lines as they don't have to coordinate them as much.

The downsides are also apparent. For those used to working on vehicles, you can usually walk into any auto parts store and tell them your year/make/model of car (and perhaps a trim level), and they will 99% of the time be able to get you the right part for that car. For a Tesla, it's a crapshoot. No one (including Tesla) knows which parts your car has. Sometimes the newer part will fit, sometimes it won't... in 10 years the forums for these cars are going to be full of people just trying to identify model parts to keep them running.

It also effectively makes the customer the tester in Tesla vehicles. Tesla does significantly less testing before releasing a product, and why should they? their customers don't seem to mind! Toyota, GM, etc. all do extensive testing of their vehicles as whole units before releasing them. It's part of the reason they do model years, as when they do updates it is after a series of extensive tests of the product working in different conditions.

I'm a bit torn on which method I think is better for vehicles- I would prefer to be an engineer for Tesla because it would be fun to just make new things without coordinating as much with release dates.

Downside seems pretty significantly to outweigh the benefit.  I've been driving the same car for coming up on 20 years now.  Couldn't do that without readily available spare parts.  I don't care if my door latch works 3% better than the previous door latch . . . if my door will no longer shut and I can't replace the part ten years from now.  Seems like a terrible vehicle to own if you're interested in longevity then?

If their car becomes effectively disposable because of a lack of available parts, does that mean that in the long run Teslas will end up worse for the environment than ICE vehicles?

In the example given, the updated / improved door latch would fit the previous car just fine.

[TomTX]

I can't find the reference but read somewhere when the IRS list first came out that weight is the trigger for the $80k cap.  If the weight doesn't meet a certain threshold it gets the $55k cap.  Adding the seats makes the Model Y heavy enough to qualify.  Adding AWD makes the ID.4 heavy enough.  Seems pretty dumb, I would think interior volume would be a better metric, but they didn't consult me...

It's more complicated than that. Having a 3rd row of seating is what triggers the "SUV" category for Model Y. The 6k lb is a different part of how a vehicle can qualify for being an SUV. The Model Y is ~4500 lbs - not even close to the 6k

[mistymoney]

Autoblog: Teslas are so expensive to repair, insurers are writing them off, which is driving up insurance for Tesla owners.

What's driving the expense to repair?  Is it the one piece frame, the electronics, or something else?

Here's an interesting case of what should have been a simple fix nearly totaling a Model 3: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters Basically, a flange integrated into the modeled battery pack (instead of a replaceable part) that was cracked by road debris.

Yikes!  So are most of these problems caused by poor engineering then?

Tesla is quite interesting in this aspect. They develop cars more like software. I.E they push out updates and fixes in real time as they are fixed. They do this with their mechanical systems. So if they find that their door handle mechanism is expensive or breaking a lot, they will update it, change the assembly line and essentially fix it live and whatever month that part becomes available to do so. So if you get an M3 in June it might have different parts in it than if you got one off the same line in July.

Legacy auto for the most part tests and releases cars as whole systems. So if you get a 2023 Colrolla, it will be the same as every other 2023 Corolla. They will make recalls or fixes for safety features, but this is also done to the entire set of vehicles that are recalled.

This has a lot of downline effects. There are some really cools aspects to the Tesla method. Disregarding their questionable stunts with supply line problems with Covid, their cars are continuously improving. So despite ad 2020 M3 looking just like a 2023 one, the 2023 will have many improvements that aren't hampered by model year. They don't have to stick with old designs if their engineers can come up with better ones and can more easily manage supply lines as they don't have to coordinate them as much.

The downsides are also apparent. For those used to working on vehicles, you can usually walk into any auto parts store and tell them your year/make/model of car (and perhaps a trim level), and they will 99% of the time be able to get you the right part for that car. For a Tesla, it's a crapshoot. No one (including Tesla) knows which parts your car has. Sometimes the newer part will fit, sometimes it won't... in 10 years the forums for these cars are going to be full of people just trying to identify model parts to keep them running.

It also effectively makes the customer the tester in Tesla vehicles. Tesla does significantly less testing before releasing a product, and why should they? their customers don't seem to mind! Toyota, GM, etc. all do extensive testing of their vehicles as whole units before releasing them. It's part of the reason they do model years, as when they do updates it is after a series of extensive tests of the product working in different conditions.

I'm a bit torn on which method I think is better for vehicles- I would prefer to be an engineer for Tesla because it would be fun to just make new things without coordinating as much with release dates.

Downside seems pretty significantly to outweigh the benefit.  I've been driving the same car for coming up on 20 years now.  Couldn't do that without readily available spare parts.  I don't care if my door latch works 3% better than the previous door latch . . . if my door will no longer shut and I can't replace the part ten years from now.  Seems like a terrible vehicle to own if you're interested in longevity then?

If their car becomes effectively disposable because of a lack of available parts, does that mean that in the long run Teslas will end up worse for the environment than ICE vehicles?

I don't see how that would happen, nor see at inevitable based on the previous post. I think anything can become obsolete if abondonned by the company, but I don't see that happening with tesla vehicles.

While stashingaways point about updated parts fitting is good, in cases where that is not the case, and while year/make/model won't identify the off the factory floor config, the vin number should be able to locate that. Telsa should be keeping those records.

[GuitarStv]

Telsa should be keeping those records.

Agreed!

But . . . are they keeping those records?  Where can I find them online to search through for when I need to find information about my Tesla?

It was stashingaway who indicated in his post that Tesla did not have these records.

[Niceday]

... you can usually walk into any auto parts store and tell them your year/make/model of car (and perhaps a trim level), and they will 99% of the time be able to get you the right part for that car. For a Tesla, it's a crapshoot. No one (including Tesla) knows which parts your car has.

Is this your speculation that Tesla doesn't know which parts your car has or you have proof? Car makers are required to track part numbers by VIN's for proper recalls.

Tesla does significantly less testing before releasing a product, and why should they?

Another speculation of yours? Do you have data to back it up?

[mistymoney]

Telsa should be keeping those records.

Agreed!

But . . . are they keeping those records?  Where can I find them online to search through for when I need to find information about my Tesla?

It was stashingaway who indicated in his post that Tesla did not have these records.

aside from info to the purchaser, I'd assume they would need that for themselves, and for liability issues.

forget tesla, inc, I think tesla the car knows what it's got going on and if something needed replacement, she would tell you what it was.

[TomTX]

While stashingaways point about updated parts fitting is good, in cases where that is not the case, and while year/make/model won't identify the off the factory floor config, the vin number should be able to locate that. Telsa should be keeping those records.

Tesla has those records. In addition - changing out the version of a part used in the production line doesn't mean that you have to replace it with that exact part.Typically either the prior or current part (or possibly later part) will work fine.

[StashingAway]

Telsa should be keeping those records.

Agreed!

But . . . are they keeping those records?  Where can I find them online to search through for when I need to find information about my Tesla?

It was stashingaway who indicated in his post that Tesla did not have these records.

Tesla may have the records themselves, but I doubt it's easy to get them or make sense of them. They certainly don't have the processes in effect to do so. They would have to release those records to O'Reilleys, Napa, independent mechanics, RockAuto etc. in an accurate and searchable way. The mere fact that you'd have to enter a VIN creates problems in and of itself, and then Telsa would also have to keep records of which new parts are interchangeable with the previous parts, on a scale that just isn't easy. I would love for them to do it; in theory it's possible but they would have to dedicate a lot of resources to the problem. Which they may do.

Say I want a door handle for a 2019 M3. Will the 2023 M3 door handle fit? It has the same holes in it, but the connector is different. Can I splice on a new connector? Is the new one a drop in replacement or do I have to source a 2019 M3? Will Tesla computer updates cause problems with this? There are various issues with questions like these in legacy auto repair world, the Tesla method this could create stacking problems with the way they do updates.

I speak from car repair experience. I would love to be proven wrong about the issues I am bringing in here. They certainly have an opportunity to change the way the market here works like they did by circumventing the dealership model. There's also the chance that the downsides are worth the upsides of quickly improving cars. For software it's an easy case, for long term mechanical machinery, I'm more hesitant to jump on board.

As an example, several years ago I had one issue repairing a 90's Sentra- basically the rotors that the books said that it had didn't fit it. All auto parts stores were confused, including myself. It turns out that on one run of the vehicles in Mexico they ran out of standard rotors and put bigger ones with calipers in them. That created a huge issue diagnosing and delaying the repair of this vehicle. I imagine that Tesla could create a searchable database that could connect a lot of this if they wanted. They would still miss stuff; maybe a 2023 M3 casting has a certain hole for a wire in it that a 2019 doesn't that isn't accounted for when determining legacy part fit. And the bigger question is; Would they share it? Historically, they have not been inclined to support third party repairs (in fact I suspect part of the reason is because they don't want to be liable for problems that I just described!)

[StashingAway]

... you can usually walk into any auto parts store and tell them your year/make/model of car (and perhaps a trim level), and they will 99% of the time be able to get you the right part for that car. For a Tesla, it's a crapshoot. No one (including Tesla) knows which parts your car has.

Is this your speculation that Tesla doesn't know which parts your car has or you have proof? Car makers are required to track part numbers by VIN's for proper recalls.

My speculation is that they won't be able to share this information as usefully as other automakers, not due to them not knowing which parts are with which VIN, but not having a good way of suggesting which part (other than a direct replacement) can be used for repair. And it would be silly of them to stock every iteration of every part for the repairable life of their vehicles.

Tesla does significantly less testing before releasing a product, and why should they?

Another speculation of yours? Do you have data to back it up?

A little of both. What I mean to say is that Tesla does not do entire systems testing as much as other vehicles due entirely to their update design protocols. They literally cannot because they aren't going to send an entire new vehicle through an entire testing protocol for every inter-year update. They will certainly test components, but it's not the same. Whether or not this is a worse scenario I am not sure. Early in the Tesla days they were also promoting their shortened testing schedule, hinting that they were able to do so with simulation. Having been in product design (mountain bikes), this can only tell you so much. The real life experience of a mechanical system can give you wonderous insights that cannot be simulated.

I cannot find current actual Tesla test protocols for their entire vehicle (other than anti- and pro- clickbaity things), and this is something that they're improving anyway so the data I find from 2018 isn't as relevant (although they clearly didn't have enough cold weather testing for a long time)

[TomTX]

Tesla may have the records themselves, but I doubt it's easy to get them or make sense of them.

It's not just a Tesla problem (though they may be more problematic than most in this regard) - my Hyundai had one of two incompatible oxygen sensor/connection sets which needed replacing. Most online resources were lies (pretending there was only one for the model year). None of the 3rd parties (Rock Auto, Auto Zone, O'Reilley, Amazon, etc) could answer definitively which I had.

I had to go to Hyundai with my VIN to figure out what part I actually needed.

[lemonlyman]

Replacement parts speculation? Is this the downfall of Tesla? Haha.

For real investment considerations: the CFO implied they are going to expand their financing wing on the Q4 call. ~1/3 of most other car manufacturer operating income comes from financing their vehicles. Tesla is just getting started here already at 16% operating margin. The CFO also said the Insurance product is growing 20% per quarter which was interesting. As these other products including energy (Megapack) ramp, he guided that operating margin is the focus now instead auto GM. Said Auto GM would stay above 20% for 2023, but support and expansion to OM will come from other products and services.

[GuitarStv]

Replacement parts speculation? Is this the downfall of Tesla? Haha.

For real investment considerations: the CFO implied they are going to expand their financing wing on the Q4 call. ~1/3 of most other car manufacturer operating income comes from financing their vehicles. Tesla is just getting started here already at 16% operating margin. The CFO also said the Insurance product is growing 20% per quarter which was interesting. As these other products including energy (Megapack) ramp, he guided that operating margin is the focus now instead auto GM. Said Auto GM would stay above 20% for 2023, but support and expansion to OM will come from other products and services.

I don't care at all about Tesla as a company.  I care about whether or not the products will be good for me long term as a consumer, and whether or not the environmental rebates that my tax dollars are paying for are being well spent on a vehicle that may need to be scrapped much sooner than expected due to bad engineering decisions.

[mistymoney]

Replacement parts speculation? Is this the downfall of Tesla? Haha.

For real investment considerations: the CFO implied they are going to expand their financing wing on the Q4 call. ~1/3 of most other car manufacturer operating income comes from financing their vehicles. Tesla is just getting started here already at 16% operating margin. The CFO also said the Insurance product is growing 20% per quarter which was interesting. As these other products including energy (Megapack) ramp, he guided that operating margin is the focus now instead auto GM. Said Auto GM would stay above 20% for 2023, but support and expansion to OM will come from other products and services.

I don't care at all about Tesla as a company.  I care about whether or not the products will be good for me long term as a consumer, and whether or not the environmental rebates that my tax dollars are paying for are being well spent on a vehicle that may need to be scrapped much sooner than expected due to bad engineering decisions.

Are you considering a tesla purchase? Because that did not seem to be in your plans to me.

Honestly, I'm just not sure what to do with all this weird stuff in this thread. "Is tesla a good investment?" And oh - the insurance is too much, can't find what repair parts are needed, someone else has a new car to compete, this blogger isn't getting good customer service......my aunt's second cousin's inlaw was going to buy a tesla and decided not to.......

what on earth does all of that have to do with "Is tesla a good investment?". Just seems like tesla permabears google up whatever negative info they can find and barf it on the thread. It is not anything that answers the question at all.

[GuitarStv]

Replacement parts speculation? Is this the downfall of Tesla? Haha.

For real investment considerations: the CFO implied they are going to expand their financing wing on the Q4 call. ~1/3 of most other car manufacturer operating income comes from financing their vehicles. Tesla is just getting started here already at 16% operating margin. The CFO also said the Insurance product is growing 20% per quarter which was interesting. As these other products including energy (Megapack) ramp, he guided that operating margin is the focus now instead auto GM. Said Auto GM would stay above 20% for 2023, but support and expansion to OM will come from other products and services.

I don't care at all about Tesla as a company.  I care about whether or not the products will be good for me long term as a consumer, and whether or not the environmental rebates that my tax dollars are paying for are being well spent on a vehicle that may need to be scrapped much sooner than expected due to bad engineering decisions.

Are you considering a tesla purchase? Because that did not seem to be in your plans to me.

In the immediate future?  No.  I'm hoping to get 25 years out of my corolla.  But it seems likely that I'll need a car at some point, and Tesla is one of the biggest automobile manufacturers in electric cars (which seem to be the more environmentally friendly option).

[mistymoney]

Replacement parts speculation? Is this the downfall of Tesla? Haha.

For real investment considerations: the CFO implied they are going to expand their financing wing on the Q4 call. ~1/3 of most other car manufacturer operating income comes from financing their vehicles. Tesla is just getting started here already at 16% operating margin. The CFO also said the Insurance product is growing 20% per quarter which was interesting. As these other products including energy (Megapack) ramp, he guided that operating margin is the focus now instead auto GM. Said Auto GM would stay above 20% for 2023, but support and expansion to OM will come from other products and services.

I don't care at all about Tesla as a company.  I care about whether or not the products will be good for me long term as a consumer, and whether or not the environmental rebates that my tax dollars are paying for are being well spent on a vehicle that may need to be scrapped much sooner than expected due to bad engineering decisions.

Are you considering a tesla purchase? Because that did not seem to be in your plans to me.

In the immediate future?  No.  I'm hoping to get 25 years out of my corolla.  But it seems likely that I'll need a car at some point, and Tesla is one of the biggest automobile manufacturers in electric cars (which seem to be the more environmentally friendly option).

got it! I've had mine for about a month, still adjusting to it, but it is a lot of fun! My previous car was an LE 2013 corolla, so it is quite the upgrade. Lots of stuff I haven't dug into yet, like autopilot, summons, etc. But it is nice to turn on the heat with my phone, and then get a notification that the car is at my desired temperature before I leave the house! It's cold outside.

but regardless - hope you find a car you are happy with!

[Niceday]

This is off topic - a few folks on this forum like to drive their corolla's or camry's for 20 or more years. While that is good for your pocket, consider that car safety standards have improved a great deal in recent years - better crumble zone, better structural integrity due to different mixes of metals, some cars have side airbags, etc. To better protect the driver and passengers, it's a good idea to upgrade to a more recent car.

[mistymoney]

This is off topic - a few folks on this forum like to drive their corolla's or camry's for 20 or more years. While that is good for your pocket, consider that car safety standards have improved a great deal in recent years - better crumble zone, better structural integrity due to different mixes of metals, some cars have side airbags, etc. To better protect the driver and passengers, it's a good idea to upgrade to a more recent car.

crap! if we wanna talk safety....

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-01-30/tesla-driver-family-northern-california-cliff-charged-attempted-murder

Patel drove Neha, their 7-year-old daughter and 4-year-old son off the cliff at Devil’s Slide, a notoriously dangerous portion of Highway 1 about 15 miles south of San Francisco. The car tumbled 250 to 300 feet, with authorities describing the family’s rescue as an “absolute miracle.”

I'm going to get both my offspring into Teslas as soon as I can. Will take a while! Years, but its a goal. Either helping them with payments or upgrading my vehicle more frequently than needed and sending the older car downstream as it were.

[GuitarStv]

This is off topic - a few folks on this forum like to drive their corolla's or camry's for 20 or more years. While that is good for your pocket, consider that car safety standards have improved a great deal in recent years - better crumble zone, better structural integrity due to different mixes of metals, some cars have side airbags, etc. To better protect the driver and passengers, it's a good idea to upgrade to a more recent car.

I often wonder about this.  It doesn't seem to be all that clear cut though when you look at the data.

It's true that when you get into an accident, you're much less likely to die in a newer car:

Year: Percentage of deaths
1984 and earlier: 55%
1985-1992: 53%
1993-1997: 46%
1997-2002: 42%
2003-2007: 36%
2008-2012: 31%
2013-2017: 26%
 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2018/05/11/newer-cars-much-safer-than-older-ones-nhtsa-says/?sh=1cb977052104

But a good portion of this is likely just due to the vehicle size arms race that has been going on for the last few decades.  Vehicles have steadily become bigger and bigger and bigger.  Larger vehicles kill occupants at a lower rate when they get in accidents.
Cars (total): 48%
Mid Sized Sedan: 43%
SUV (small two wheel drive): 42%
Pickup: 29%
SUV (total): 25%
minivan: 22%
 - https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/study-shows-how-death-rates-for-drivers-vary-by-car-size/

So a minivan from the late 90s is probably in the ballpark of the same level of crash death safety as a brand new small car.  :P  And then you have other problems with modern cars - they're harder to see out of and have increased blind spots, for example.  You are more likely to survive a crash, but possibly more likely to get in a crash to begin with.


If you're concerned about safety and driving, then driving slower is more likely to benefit you than new vs old car.  The risk of dying in a crash increases significantly with speed:
5% at 37 mph (60 kph)
10% at 43 mph (70 kph)
20% at 56 mph (90 kph)
  - https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cars-safe-speed-crashes-iihs-aaa-study/ 
As does the liklihood of getting in a crash to begin with (https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/speedmgt/ref_mats/fhwasa1304/Resources3/08%20-%20The%20Relation%20Between%20Speed%20and%20Crashes.pdf).


There are a lot of things to consider when thinking about vehicle safety, I don't think it's as clear cut as 'use new car or die'.




Also because I couldn't find another place to put this and it made me laugh -

Male drivers were involved in 34% of fatal crashes in 2016, while female drivers were involved in 12%. (USDOT, 2017) (https://driving-tests.org/driving-statistics/)

So 54% of fatal crashes were apparently caused by driverless cars and or gender neutral people.  :P

[ColoradoTribe]

Replacement parts speculation? Is this the downfall of Tesla? Haha.

For real investment considerations: the CFO implied they are going to expand their financing wing on the Q4 call. ~1/3 of most other car manufacturer operating income comes from financing their vehicles. Tesla is just getting started here already at 16% operating margin. The CFO also said the Insurance product is growing 20% per quarter which was interesting. As these other products including energy (Megapack) ramp, he guided that operating margin is the focus now instead auto GM. Said Auto GM would stay above 20% for 2023, but support and expansion to OM will come from other products and services.

I don't care at all about Tesla as a company.  I care about whether or not the products will be good for me long term as a consumer, and whether or not the environmental rebates that my tax dollars are paying for are being well spent on a vehicle that may need to be scrapped much sooner than expected due to bad engineering decisions.

Are you considering a tesla purchase? Because that did not seem to be in your plans to me.

Honestly, I'm just not sure what to do with all this weird stuff in this thread. "Is tesla a good investment?" And oh - the insurance is too much, can't find what repair parts are needed, someone else has a new car to compete, this blogger isn't getting good customer service......my aunt's second cousin's inlaw was going to buy a tesla and decided not to.......

what on earth does all of that have to do with "Is tesla a good investment?". Just seems like tesla permabears google up whatever negative info they can find and barf it on the thread. It is not anything that answers the question at all.

They have a lot of concerns, the concerns shift over the months and years, but they will always be concerned.

[mistymoney]

Replacement parts speculation? Is this the downfall of Tesla? Haha.

For real investment considerations: the CFO implied they are going to expand their financing wing on the Q4 call. ~1/3 of most other car manufacturer operating income comes from financing their vehicles. Tesla is just getting started here already at 16% operating margin. The CFO also said the Insurance product is growing 20% per quarter which was interesting. As these other products including energy (Megapack) ramp, he guided that operating margin is the focus now instead auto GM. Said Auto GM would stay above 20% for 2023, but support and expansion to OM will come from other products and services.

I don't care at all about Tesla as a company.  I care about whether or not the products will be good for me long term as a consumer, and whether or not the environmental rebates that my tax dollars are paying for are being well spent on a vehicle that may need to be scrapped much sooner than expected due to bad engineering decisions.

Are you considering a tesla purchase? Because that did not seem to be in your plans to me.

Honestly, I'm just not sure what to do with all this weird stuff in this thread. "Is tesla a good investment?" And oh - the insurance is too much, can't find what repair parts are needed, someone else has a new car to compete, this blogger isn't getting good customer service......my aunt's second cousin's inlaw was going to buy a tesla and decided not to.......

what on earth does all of that have to do with "Is tesla a good investment?". Just seems like tesla permabears google up whatever negative info they can find and barf it on the thread. It is not anything that answers the question at all.

They have a lot of concerns, the concerns shift over the months and years, but they will always be concerned.

LOL - makes me of a grade school thing....way back in they day.....I remember some obnoxious kids that we met and they would pull their eye lid down and say "look at the concern in my eye!". Being somewhat niave as a child. I thought that that little pink triangle at the inside corner of your eye and/or the other pink tissues under your lid was called concern.

[maizefolk]

Also because I couldn't find another place to put this and it made me laugh -

Male drivers were involved in 34% of fatal crashes in 2016, while female drivers were involved in 12%. (USDOT, 2017) (https://driving-tests.org/driving-statistics/)

So 54% of fatal crashes were apparently caused by driverless cars and or gender neutral people.  :P

Half a dozen gifs of people banging their heads against desks here.

(But yeah, it made me laugh too.)

[EchoStache]

Although I think its a bad decision overall, Model Y now qualifies as SUV for rebate.  So now tax dollars incentivize Model Y purchases up to $80,000 instead of $55,000.  Wonder how much larger of an effect this will have on Tesla sales/profits/share price.

Ugg, with the $55,000 cap, at least it somewhat forced Tesla to bring prices down significantly.  This resulted in Ford following suit soon thereafter dropping prices on Mustang Mach-E ev's.  Which of course will lead/has lead to used EV's dropping in value/price.

But now we are using tax payer money to encourage people to buy bigger, less efficient, more wasteful, giant luxury $80,000 SUV's.  So much for the inflation reduction component of the IRA.

I'm (almost) all in on index funds, but damn I wish I'd bought all the share I could afford when it dropped to $102.  I felt like that was a ridiculously mispriced drop in share price, and speculate that Tesla has potential, as previously stated, to become the biggest and most profitable company in the world.  Oh well, gotta run, time to buy some more FXAIX :)

[mistymoney]

Although I think its a bad decision overall, Model Y now qualifies as SUV for rebate.  So now tax dollars incentivize Model Y purchases up to $80,000 instead of $55,000.  Wonder how much larger of an effect this will have on Tesla sales/profits/share price.

Ugg, with the $55,000 cap, at least it somewhat forced Tesla to bring prices down significantly.  This resulted in Ford following suit soon thereafter dropping prices on Mustang Mach-E ev's.  Which of course will lead/has lead to used EV's dropping in value/price.

But now we are using tax payer money to encourage people to buy bigger, less efficient, more wasteful, giant luxury $80,000 SUV's.  So much for the inflation reduction component of the IRA.

I'm (almost) all in on index funds, but damn I wish I'd bought all the share I could afford when it dropped to $102.  I felt like that was a ridiculously mispriced drop in share price, and speculate that Tesla has potential, as previously stated, to become the biggest and most profitable company in the world.  Oh well, gotta run, time to buy some more FXAIX :)

I missed 102, must have been busy with work. I did pick up 10 extra shares at 108, but then I didn't pick up the 1-2 each paycheck that week feeling I had already dipped. Should done it!

Now I'm more hesitant to get more shares!

[TomTX]

Treasury has been persuaded that their initial SUV categories were pants-on-head stupid and are adopting the EPA definition.

This means that all Model Y, ID.4 and Ford EVs qualify under the $80k cap.

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-for-new-qualified-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

[ColoradoTribe]

Although I think its a bad decision overall, Model Y now qualifies as SUV for rebate.  So now tax dollars incentivize Model Y purchases up to $80,000 instead of $55,000.  Wonder how much larger of an effect this will have on Tesla sales/profits/share price.

Ugg, with the $55,000 cap, at least it somewhat forced Tesla to bring prices down significantly.  This resulted in Ford following suit soon thereafter dropping prices on Mustang Mach-E ev's.  Which of course will lead/has lead to used EV's dropping in value/price.

But now we are using tax payer money to encourage people to buy bigger, less efficient, more wasteful, giant luxury $80,000 SUV's.  So much for the inflation reduction component of the IRA.

I'm (almost) all in on index funds, but damn I wish I'd bought all the share I could afford when it dropped to $102.  I felt like that was a ridiculously mispriced drop in share price, and speculate that Tesla has potential, as previously stated, to become the biggest and most profitable company in the world.  Oh well, gotta run, time to buy some more FXAIX :)

The real issue with the IRA, as it relates to EVs, it that it incentivizes plug-in hybrid vehicles with tiny batteries the same as EVs. Hybrids are going to become quickly obsolete. There’s no reason to promote them, except as a gift to legacy autos. I’d much rather subsidize an $80k, fully electric vehicle, than a PHEV that unnecessarily delays our transition away from oil.

As for Tesla, they have a win-win choice now. They can keep their current pricing and continue to squeeze their competition by forcing them to drop prices they can’t afford to drop and capture market share in the process. Or, they can raise prices and increase profits. I suspect Tesla won’t raise prices, at least not drastically, at this time. They will continue to produce as many cars as fast as they can and adjust pricing to manage demand. If the backlog reaches 3 months or more, they’ll start raising prices again. My guess is we’ll see some prices increase before the end of the quarter.

[mistymoney]

Although I think its a bad decision overall, Model Y now qualifies as SUV for rebate.  So now tax dollars incentivize Model Y purchases up to $80,000 instead of $55,000.  Wonder how much larger of an effect this will have on Tesla sales/profits/share price.

Ugg, with the $55,000 cap, at least it somewhat forced Tesla to bring prices down significantly.  This resulted in Ford following suit soon thereafter dropping prices on Mustang Mach-E ev's.  Which of course will lead/has lead to used EV's dropping in value/price.

But now we are using tax payer money to encourage people to buy bigger, less efficient, more wasteful, giant luxury $80,000 SUV's.  So much for the inflation reduction component of the IRA.

I'm (almost) all in on index funds, but damn I wish I'd bought all the share I could afford when it dropped to $102.  I felt like that was a ridiculously mispriced drop in share price, and speculate that Tesla has potential, as previously stated, to become the biggest and most profitable company in the world.  Oh well, gotta run, time to buy some more FXAIX :)

The real issue with the IRA, as it relates to EVs, it that it incentivizes plug-in hybrid vehicles with tiny batteries the same as EVs. Hybrids are going to become quickly obsolete. There’s no reason to promote them, except as a gift to legacy autos. I’d much rather subsidize an $80k, fully electric vehicle, than a PHEV that unnecessarily delays our transition away from oil.

As for Tesla, they have a win-win choice now. They can keep their current pricing and continue to squeeze their competition by forcing them to drop prices they can’t afford to drop and capture market share in the process. Or, they can raise prices and increase profits. I suspect Tesla won’t raise prices, at least not drastically, at this time. They will continue to produce as many cars as fast as they can and adjust pricing to manage demand. If the backlog reaches 3 months or more, they’ll start raising prices again. My guess is we’ll see some prices increase before the end of the quarter.

first paragraph - hopefully the consumer base that is interested in the environment will help here

second paragraph - I don't think raising prices back up will be at all helpful to the brand. One of the great things about the tesla model was the no haggle, this is the price thing. People will start to speculate about when "sales" might come up and delay purchasing, etc. Although I'm still a bit peeved about getting caught on the wrong side of the savings, I don't think swinging prices up and down will be good for the brand.

[ColoradoTribe]

Although I think its a bad decision overall, Model Y now qualifies as SUV for rebate.  So now tax dollars incentivize Model Y purchases up to $80,000 instead of $55,000.  Wonder how much larger of an effect this will have on Tesla sales/profits/share price.

Ugg, with the $55,000 cap, at least it somewhat forced Tesla to bring prices down significantly.  This resulted in Ford following suit soon thereafter dropping prices on Mustang Mach-E ev's.  Which of course will lead/has lead to used EV's dropping in value/price.

But now we are using tax payer money to encourage people to buy bigger, less efficient, more wasteful, giant luxury $80,000 SUV's.  So much for the inflation reduction component of the IRA.

I'm (almost) all in on index funds, but damn I wish I'd bought all the share I could afford when it dropped to $102.  I felt like that was a ridiculously mispriced drop in share price, and speculate that Tesla has potential, as previously stated, to become the biggest and most profitable company in the world.  Oh well, gotta run, time to buy some more FXAIX :)

The real issue with the IRA, as it relates to EVs, it that it incentivizes plug-in hybrid vehicles with tiny batteries the same as EVs. Hybrids are going to become quickly obsolete. There’s no reason to promote them, except as a gift to legacy autos. I’d much rather subsidize an $80k, fully electric vehicle, than a PHEV that unnecessarily delays our transition away from oil.

As for Tesla, they have a win-win choice now. They can keep their current pricing and continue to squeeze their competition by forcing them to drop prices they can’t afford to drop and capture market share in the process. Or, they can raise prices and increase profits. I suspect Tesla won’t raise prices, at least not drastically, at this time. They will continue to produce as many cars as fast as they can and adjust pricing to manage demand. If the backlog reaches 3 months or more, they’ll start raising prices again. My guess is we’ll see some prices increase before the end of the quarter.

first paragraph - hopefully the consumer base that is interested in the environment will help here

second paragraph - I don't think raising prices back up will be at all helpful to the brand. One of the great things about the tesla model was the no haggle, this is the price thing. People will start to speculate about when "sales" might come up and delay purchasing, etc. Although I'm still a bit peeved about getting caught on the wrong side of the savings, I don't think swinging prices up and down will be good for the brand.

First paragraph - agree, and hopefully folks will also realize that PHEV represent the worst of both worlds and at an unneeded price premium.

Second Paragraph - Fair point. However, I would argue the greater risk to the brand is having a long wait time to get your vehicle. Adjusting prices is primarily meant to manage demand or put another way, manage wait times.  People in the car market often need a car in a matter of days or weeks and not months. They were in an accident, relocated, had a baby, their old car died or was stolen...you get the idea. While anticipation of a price cut might lead folks to delay a Tesla purchase, this works both ways, and folks might rush to lock in prices once they see Tesla reversing course and starting to raise prices. Finally, folks will hopefully realize the real economic benefit of an EV is the low total cost of ownership, which takes some of the stress off of getting the best purchase price, if you’re looking to own for a long time.

[mistymoney]

Although I think its a bad decision overall, Model Y now qualifies as SUV for rebate.  So now tax dollars incentivize Model Y purchases up to $80,000 instead of $55,000.  Wonder how much larger of an effect this will have on Tesla sales/profits/share price.

Ugg, with the $55,000 cap, at least it somewhat forced Tesla to bring prices down significantly.  This resulted in Ford following suit soon thereafter dropping prices on Mustang Mach-E ev's.  Which of course will lead/has lead to used EV's dropping in value/price.

But now we are using tax payer money to encourage people to buy bigger, less efficient, more wasteful, giant luxury $80,000 SUV's.  So much for the inflation reduction component of the IRA.

I'm (almost) all in on index funds, but damn I wish I'd bought all the share I could afford when it dropped to $102.  I felt like that was a ridiculously mispriced drop in share price, and speculate that Tesla has potential, as previously stated, to become the biggest and most profitable company in the world.  Oh well, gotta run, time to buy some more FXAIX :)

The real issue with the IRA, as it relates to EVs, it that it incentivizes plug-in hybrid vehicles with tiny batteries the same as EVs. Hybrids are going to become quickly obsolete. There’s no reason to promote them, except as a gift to legacy autos. I’d much rather subsidize an $80k, fully electric vehicle, than a PHEV that unnecessarily delays our transition away from oil.

As for Tesla, they have a win-win choice now. They can keep their current pricing and continue to squeeze their competition by forcing them to drop prices they can’t afford to drop and capture market share in the process. Or, they can raise prices and increase profits. I suspect Tesla won’t raise prices, at least not drastically, at this time. They will continue to produce as many cars as fast as they can and adjust pricing to manage demand. If the backlog reaches 3 months or more, they’ll start raising prices again. My guess is we’ll see some prices increase before the end of the quarter.

first paragraph - hopefully the consumer base that is interested in the environment will help here

second paragraph - I don't think raising prices back up will be at all helpful to the brand. One of the great things about the tesla model was the no haggle, this is the price thing. People will start to speculate about when "sales" might come up and delay purchasing, etc. Although I'm still a bit peeved about getting caught on the wrong side of the savings, I don't think swinging prices up and down will be good for the brand.

First paragraph - agree, and hopefully folks will also realize that PHEV represent the worst of both worlds and at an unneeded price premium.

Second Paragraph - Fair point. However, I would argue the greater risk to the brand is having a long wait time to get your vehicle. Adjusting prices is primarily meant to manage demand or put another way, manage wait times.  People in the car market often need a car in a matter of days or weeks and not months. They were in an accident, relocated, had a baby, their old car died or was stolen...you get the idea. While anticipation of a price cut might lead folks to delay a Tesla purchase, this works both ways, and folks might rush to lock in prices once they see Tesla reversing course and starting to raise prices. Finally, folks will hopefully realize the real economic benefit of an EV is the low total cost of ownership, which takes some of the stress off of getting the best purchase price, if you’re looking to own for a long time.

we'll just have to see how they handle it! I was unbothered by wait times, more impacted by price, but of course just one data point.

I do like to think that if they can make it more affordable and get more people into EVs sooner rather than later, that that is good for the company and the planet.

[ColoradoTribe]

Although I think its a bad decision overall, Model Y now qualifies as SUV for rebate.  So now tax dollars incentivize Model Y purchases up to $80,000 instead of $55,000.  Wonder how much larger of an effect this will have on Tesla sales/profits/share price.

Ugg, with the $55,000 cap, at least it somewhat forced Tesla to bring prices down significantly.  This resulted in Ford following suit soon thereafter dropping prices on Mustang Mach-E ev's.  Which of course will lead/has lead to used EV's dropping in value/price.

But now we are using tax payer money to encourage people to buy bigger, less efficient, more wasteful, giant luxury $80,000 SUV's.  So much for the inflation reduction component of the IRA.

I'm (almost) all in on index funds, but damn I wish I'd bought all the share I could afford when it dropped to $102.  I felt like that was a ridiculously mispriced drop in share price, and speculate that Tesla has potential, as previously stated, to become the biggest and most profitable company in the world.  Oh well, gotta run, time to buy some more FXAIX :)

The real issue with the IRA, as it relates to EVs, it that it incentivizes plug-in hybrid vehicles with tiny batteries the same as EVs. Hybrids are going to become quickly obsolete. There’s no reason to promote them, except as a gift to legacy autos. I’d much rather subsidize an $80k, fully electric vehicle, than a PHEV that unnecessarily delays our transition away from oil.

As for Tesla, they have a win-win choice now. They can keep their current pricing and continue to squeeze their competition by forcing them to drop prices they can’t afford to drop and capture market share in the process. Or, they can raise prices and increase profits. I suspect Tesla won’t raise prices, at least not drastically, at this time. They will continue to produce as many cars as fast as they can and adjust pricing to manage demand. If the backlog reaches 3 months or more, they’ll start raising prices again. My guess is we’ll see some prices increase before the end of the quarter.

first paragraph - hopefully the consumer base that is interested in the environment will help here

second paragraph - I don't think raising prices back up will be at all helpful to the brand. One of the great things about the tesla model was the no haggle, this is the price thing. People will start to speculate about when "sales" might come up and delay purchasing, etc. Although I'm still a bit peeved about getting caught on the wrong side of the savings, I don't think swinging prices up and down will be good for the brand.

First paragraph - agree, and hopefully folks will also realize that PHEV represent the worst of both worlds and at an unneeded price premium.

Second Paragraph - Fair point. However, I would argue the greater risk to the brand is having a long wait time to get your vehicle. Adjusting prices is primarily meant to manage demand or put another way, manage wait times.  People in the car market often need a car in a matter of days or weeks and not months. They were in an accident, relocated, had a baby, their old car died or was stolen...you get the idea. While anticipation of a price cut might lead folks to delay a Tesla purchase, this works both ways, and folks might rush to lock in prices once they see Tesla reversing course and starting to raise prices. Finally, folks will hopefully realize the real economic benefit of an EV is the low total cost of ownership, which takes some of the stress off of getting the best purchase price, if you’re looking to own for a long time.

we'll just have to see how they handle it! I was unbothered by wait times, more impacted by price, but of course just one data point.

I do like to think that if they can make it more affordable and get more people into EVs sooner rather than later, that that is good for the company and the planet.

I guess that’s partly my point. Tesla is not slowing their production, so they can raise prices. They are ramping production as fast as they can with the existing models and factories. They are tweaking pricing to manage the demand backlog, but the mission is to get as many EVs into the world as fast as possible, which they are doing. Yes, the master calls for working down market, so the margins from higher end vehicles can fuel rapid growth and its working. I think on March 1 we’re going to hear about the next generation of more affordable vehicles and the announcement of 1 or 2 new gigafactory locations. Goal will remain 20 million vehicles per year (rate) by 2030. That’ll be tough, but if they’re even close it’ll be amazing.

[Viking Thor]

Totally off topic in terms of investment but my family just bought a model Y and it’s a pretty big vehicle; having one now it seems ridiculous it was not classified as an SUV initially.

I realize it’s not”mustachian” but we wanted to get something nice and we can afford it.

We have two cars in the family and typically try to keep them 20 years. Our old car was 19, and the new car 9, so we were about due. We traded in the 2004 Accord for a Tesla.

Previously we were a Honda family as I liked the reliability. When the Tesla Y dropped 13k to get under the tax credit I pulled the trigger and got one. I believe the future in cars is and should be EVs.

Have had the Tesla Y a week and enjoying it so far.

Have to say we are surprised how big it is. Our other car is a Honda CRV which I always thought of as an SUV. I knew the Y was slightly bigger because I researched, but in person it’s way bigger than our 2014 CRV.

So net- it’s absolutely SUV size. But I’m grateful the IRS initial weird decision brought the price down to 53k to get under the non SUV tax credit cap as that saved me money.

[ColoradoTribe]

Totally off topic in terms of investment but my family just bought a model Y and it’s a pretty big vehicle; having one now it seems ridiculous it was not classified as an SUV initially.

I realize it’s not”mustachian” but we wanted to get something nice and we can afford it.

We have two cars in the family and typically try to keep them 20 years. Our old car was 19, and the new car 9, so we were about due. We traded in the 2004 Accord for a Tesla.

Previously we were a Honda family as I liked the reliability. When the Tesla Y dropped 13k to get under the tax credit I pulled the trigger and got one. I believe the future in cars is and should be EVs.

Have had the Tesla Y a week and enjoying it so far.

Have to say we are surprised how big it is. Our other car is a Honda CRV which I always thought of as an SUV. I knew the Y was slightly bigger because I researched, but in person it’s way bigger than our 2014 CRV.

So net- it’s absolutely SUV size. But I’m grateful the IRS initial weird decision brought the price down to 53k to get under the non SUV tax credit cap as that saved me money.

Thanks for sharing your experience so far. No need to feel sheepish about buying a new vehicle after squeezing 19 years out of your Accord!

I’m 6’4”l and took my first ride in a Model Y in the last few months. I was amazed by the head and leg room in the back seat. It does not look that spacious from the outside, but I did not feel like I was being crammed into the back seat like I do in most small to mid-size SUVs.

Hope you get years of enjoyment!

[PDXTabs]

A problem for Ford is that only short-range variants are under the $55k cap. For Tesla you can purchase either a Model 3 Performance or Model Y LR under the cap (admittedly with very little in the way of options), each with well over 300 miles of EPA range.

That turns a ~$3k difference in price to a ~$10k difference in price (presuming the buyer can qualify for and use the tax credit)

Isn't the cap for the mach-e $80k because they got it classified as an SUV?

Not under the current IRS guidelines. Both the Mach-e and Escape are at the $55k cap.

...which just further demonstrates how dumb and arbitrary the IRS car/SUV dividing line is. Almost as dumb as the "Model Y isn't an SUV, unless you get the optional kid seats in the back, then it is". Another example: most ID.4 variants have the $55k cap, but if it has AWD it gets the $80k cap. Note that AWD on a Model Y doesn't make it an SUV...

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/manufacturers-and-models-for-new-qualified-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after

that is a bit crazy!

So we already had federal laws and regulations defining what an SUV was (NHTSA, etc) and now we have a different definition for tax purposes... Kind of OT but I refuse to vote for any of these clowns. Not to mention the horrible incentive to make heavier cars that do more damage to the roads and carry more kinetic energy into crashes. Very weird market incentives that will impact this investing decision.

CNN: In boost for Ford and Tesla, Treasury changes EV tax rules making it easier to qualify as an SUV

[Viking Thor]

Thanks for the well wishes @ColoradoTribe.

Financial optimizer me was overthrown by Yolo me in this case.

I’m 49 years old and can afford it so decided to splurge even though I would not typically spend that much on a car. I think a lot of others in similar situation will consider buying Ys and we will start to see a lot of them on the road.

[waltworks]

We've considered the Y with the third row kid seats, but my concern is that in 10 years the kids won't fit in the kid seats anymore. With an ICE car I would be less concerned, but I (maybe erroneously) think of electrics as items I want to last 20+ years.

For now we're good with the Leaf but the ICE Suburban that gets driven once every 2-3 weeks has gotta go soon. If we could find a big EV that would fit everyone and checked all the boxes I'd probably sell both and jump on it.

-W

[ColoradoTribe]

Interesting twitter thread that discusses Tesla’s industry leading warranty reserve. I don’t know wether Tesla could ever convert this to “profit” from reserve or perhaps they just start reducing the amount they pay in each year per vehicle if this trend holds. Either way, Tesla is once again in a good position here relative to peers.

https://twitter.com/TeslaLarry/status/1622317952358924294?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1622317952358924294%7Ctwgr%5E644d623376b90dfc0eac5acca553044d47863689%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fteslamotorsclub.com%2Ftmc%2Fthreads%2Ftesla-tsla-the-investment-world-the-perpetual-investors-roundtable.139047%2Fpage-19958

[lemonlyman]

We've considered the Y with the third row kid seats, but my concern is that in 10 years the kids won't fit in the kid seats anymore. With an ICE car I would be less concerned, but I (maybe erroneously) think of electrics as items I want to last 20+ years.

For now we're good with the Leaf but the ICE Suburban that gets driven once every 2-3 weeks has gotta go soon. If we could find a big EV that would fit everyone and checked all the boxes I'd probably sell both and jump on it.

-W

We have the 3rd row seat in the Y. They wouldn't fit comfortably grown. It works, especially around town, but on a road trip, that third row is only good for little kids. Not many out there with space for larger families. There's the Rivian R1S, but it's soooo pricey. I assume my Y will last 20 years, but it's not proven. Haven't had any issues so far at 1. 19 to go, haha.

[waltworks]

We have the 3rd row seat in the Y. They wouldn't fit comfortably grown. It works, especially around town, but on a road trip, that third row is only good for little kids. Not many out there with space for larger families. There's the Rivian R1S, but it's soooo pricey. I assume my Y will last 20 years, but it's not proven. Haven't had any issues so far at 1. 19 to go, haha.

Good to know. I wish someone would make an electric minivan or station wagon. But nobody has kids anymore, so I understand why those sort of items aren't a high priority.

The Pacifica hybrid is pretty cool but I'd rather be done with gasoline completely.

-W

[ColoradoTribe]

We have the 3rd row seat in the Y. They wouldn't fit comfortably grown. It works, especially around town, but on a road trip, that third row is only good for little kids. Not many out there with space for larger families. There's the Rivian R1S, but it's soooo pricey. I assume my Y will last 20 years, but it's not proven. Haven't had any issues so far at 1. 19 to go, haha.

Good to know. I wish someone would make an electric minivan or station wagon. But nobody has kids anymore, so I understand why those sort of items aren't a high priority.

The Pacifica hybrid is pretty cool but I'd rather be done with gasoline completely.

-W

Three school-aged children here too. Planning to hold onto our 2012 Odyssey for a while because it will be a while before there is a good electric alternative and I’m done buying gas or hybrid vehicles.

[StashingAway]

We have the 3rd row seat in the Y. They wouldn't fit comfortably grown. It works, especially around town, but on a road trip, that third row is only good for little kids. Not many out there with space for larger families. There's the Rivian R1S, but it's soooo pricey. I assume my Y will last 20 years, but it's not proven. Haven't had any issues so far at 1. 19 to go, haha.

Good to know. I wish someone would make an electric minivan or station wagon. But nobody has kids anymore, so I understand why those sort of items aren't a high priority.

The Pacifica hybrid is pretty cool but I'd rather be done with gasoline completely.

-W

Three school-aged children here too. Planning to hold onto our 2012 Odyssey for a while because it will be a while before there is a good electric alternative and I’m done buying gas or hybrid vehicles.

It's really weird to me how much minivans have fallen off the market so much. They're so awesome... if sliding doors came on a supercar it would be seen as premium luxury. They have decent towing, amazing storage, unique looks, decent parking footprint, and on and on. I think in principle -PHEV- and in aesthetics -space ship- the Pacifica nails it, but I find it doesn't hit the practical marks worth the upgrade from my 2014 Oddyssey either). Heck, it only gets a few mpgs better on the highway, which is half the point of a minivan.

I almost just view the Y as a hatchback version of the 3. I would choose it over the 3 for that reason alone. Although I've never sat in a Y, maybe it feels quite a bit bigger in there than I'm thinking.

Also, these subsidy programs having tiered rewards that incentivize heavier vehicles makes no sense to me. It is so obviously the wrong approach that they look to be designed by people with incentives that don't align with the intent of the programs.