Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 391660 times)

Abe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1500 on: December 21, 2022, 08:18:21 PM »
Regarding the Tesla roof - I'd be interested in seeing how it is a wash. Unless you have a very simple roof plan, it can get very expensive quickly. The estimate given on the website is notoriously low.

I'd also look at GAF and Luma solar shingles for alternatives. I didn't care much about looks so didn't research any of them extensively, but know they are on the market also. 

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1501 on: December 21, 2022, 10:06:53 PM »
Regarding the Tesla roof - I'd be interested in seeing how it is a wash. Unless you have a very simple roof plan, it can get very expensive quickly. The estimate given on the website is notoriously low.

I'd also look at GAF and Luma solar shingles for alternatives. I didn't care much about looks so didn't research any of them extensively, but know they are on the market also.

I haven't gone past the online estimate as yet, so that is something to consider as I go farther!

EchoStache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1502 on: December 22, 2022, 03:27:50 AM »
@mistymoney , which was your M3 configuration?  I'm looking at the LR AWD in red with 19" wheels.  Share your thoughts so far if you'd like.  Our first EV was a 2022 Kia Niro and we love having an EV.

theoverlook

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1503 on: December 22, 2022, 07:35:41 AM »

If environmental impact is truly a consideration, I'd strongly advise that you put some thought (and a little math) into whether hoarding a whole bunch of KWH of LiIon battery capacity that's rarely used to it's full capacity is truly the best option moving forward.
I'm sorry, but this seems like a major stretch and a true "think of the children!" level of pearl clutching. "So many batteries! I'm so concerned about battery hoarding!"

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1504 on: December 22, 2022, 08:32:34 AM »

For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

Adding in an additional FU to the haggling dealership model that I've had all bad experiences with, was just icing on the cake. Trying to get a car at a dealership as a young single woman 20 years ago was one of the worse, most manipulative feeling experiences of my life. Anything I can do put a bullet in the model is sweet music to my ears.

Similarly my next roof will be tesla, again my question is can I afford NOT to buy it? Given the world........and I've always hated the look of solar panel on a roof and didn't think there would be any alternative. Then I saw this! Was so thrilled for it! It was definitely going to be my next roof! I will get powerwalls for energy security. I will get as close to self sufficient in energy as I can, my perspective is that anyone who could possible go that route must for everyone's future. And tesla seems to me to be the best way to do that.

So my consumerism came first, and then I bought the stock because I see this as really being what the future needs. Was it over valued, sure, maybe? Will it bounce back tomorrow? Probably not.

But I think 3 years from now these shares will be well worth the volatity of now. And if not - I'll have sufficient funds in the indexes for myself.

But back to my new car!!! Word on the street is expected lifespan is about 300k miles, so this will do me for quite some time. Get the tesla roof and powerwalls and my car will be powered from my resources.....soooo looking forward to that!

And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....



This just reads like parody to me, especially in light of MMM. I just don't relate to any of it (except the dealership model comment, although I've only tried it once and ended up walking out to go buy a car on craigslist because that was way less sketchy)

how so? are you reacting to the use of the word consumerism specifically?

Checking the definition to see if I used it correctly, and it has several definitions, and even some nuances within those definitions......some of which are weightier than others. So perhaps it was a poor word choice there. I was speaking of myself as a consumer, a customer, a buyer, nosomuch as a philosophy of high consumption as a mandate or anything. But I would hope one would read a little more detailed before calling it a parody. Buying a roof is a once every 20-30 years purchase, and a car every 10-20 (at least herearound!), So I don't think that discussing these two very low volume purchases would necessarily bring to mind those negative connotations, particularly as I mentioned wanting some of them for decades, and planning for them for years.

On a side note: You can't walk out of a dealership when they have the keys to your current car and won't give it back.

Not the word specifically, just the general sentiment.

First, I want to first share a toast to ridding ourselves of dealerships. I absolutely loathe them, and I haven't even bought a car from them. I've tried a couple of times and it was an awful experience even in the process before they had my money/keys.

I don't really want to get too personal here; I don't know your life story or your decisions or thought process. In my following rambling, I don't want to get too much into the weeds of your particular case. But the "parody" comment really came like I was reading a MMM April Fool's post. Here are a few interpretations to what was written:

"I couldn't bother getting solar panels because I considered them ugly, but now that they look cool and I was going to get a new roof anyway, it's literally the only choice any sane, thoughtful person could make- you know, saving the earth and all. I'm doing this for you, you should thank me", with the implication that you're making an environmentally conscious choice, but if the panels were ugly, then you wouldn't be bothered.

"I will pay any price for an new EV, no price is too high for saving the planet!" Again, this is the MMM forum, so this type of statement used to get a friendly facepunch! Since discovering the blog/forum a little over 10 years ago, I've been making some fairly drastic life changes. They were baby steps, but they were steps to life a more full life whilst getting out of the rat race of consumerism. I moved less than a mile away from work- with an enviously easy bicycle commute in the suburbs of Chicago (suburbs being notoriously difficult for this kind of thing). For several years our family owned one car; a Pontiac vibe. We now own two, just picked up a minivan with 180K miles on it and have since used it to haul pianos, plywood, drywall and such, as well as shuttle cousins around. But our collective mileage on both vehicles is ridiculously small; buying a new EV would take literally decades to make up for financially. Without trying to sound like beating my own drum too much, I would like to think that I've done pretty well in my effort to reduce my impact on the climate. We also eat significantly less meat than we used to (maybe 4 out of our 21 weekly meals), we reuse and repair most of our stuff and enjoy lots of cheap, healthy outdoor activities.

I realize my criticisms here are not received with open arms to most of the country. It isn't something that most people can just jump into either. But most people on this forum should be familiar with it at least. The idea that if you could only just buy that expensive new EV, solar roof, and battery, then your conscience is clear and you can live worry free, just seems like the same chasing the dragon of consumerism. What would you do if the EV wasn't an option? How are the negative externalities to vehicle ownership, especially a 4,000 lb heavy metal ridden machine, factoring into this? There are more than just CO2 emissions here. 6PPD, a chemical in vehicle tires, is killing the salmon in Puget sound. This comes from the tires wearing on the roads and that runoff going into the water. Heavier vehicles wear tires more. Imagine the amount of wear and tear saved if one had switched to a 40lb bicycle rather than an EV!


If environmental impact is truly a consideration, I'd strongly advise that you put some thought (and a little math) into whether hoarding a whole bunch of KWH of LiIon battery capacity that's rarely used to it's full capacity is truly the best option moving forward.
I'm sorry, but this seems like a major stretch and a true "think of the children!" level of pearl clutching. "So many batteries! I'm so concerned about battery hoarding!"

It's not the buying an EV that's the issue at heart here. No one is particularly criticizing it on it's own. The criticism comes when the buying an EV is paired with holier-than-thou environmentalism, as though the person is making great sacrifices for the collective good, when in fact they are just buying a monolith to consumption.

achvfi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1505 on: December 22, 2022, 09:10:48 AM »
@mistymoney , which was your M3 configuration?  I'm looking at the LR AWD in red with 19" wheels.  Share your thoughts so far if you'd like.  Our first EV was a 2022 Kia Niro and we love having an EV.

@UltraStache you certainly deserve a friendly MMM facepunch.

You just started cleaning up your finances at a later age. Are you seriously spending on a 60K car? unbelievable. Cars are a money sucking machines, this is lot worse.

You can get same utility with 10-15k spend.

vand

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1506 on: December 22, 2022, 10:07:32 AM »
Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1507 on: December 22, 2022, 11:55:35 AM »
This base model comparison should settle the question about whether the Tesla model 3 is an economical car. If anyone is wondering why Chevy made the Bolt like they did, this is why. It could be more economical than the longtime leader among cheap compact sedans, the Toyota Corolla.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1508 on: December 22, 2022, 12:40:48 PM »
@mistymoney , which was your M3 configuration?  I'm looking at the LR AWD in red with 19" wheels.  Share your thoughts so far if you'd like.  Our first EV was a 2022 Kia Niro and we love having an EV.

I don't have LR or AWD!

RWD, black/white interior upgrade that I love the look! Hopefully, can keep it spiffy! Sport wheels, and enhanced autopilot, which I haven't tried as yet! A bit spooked, lol. I will get to it.

Cold climate, so I love the push a button on my phone to activate climate, and pile into a car that is warm with heated seats and stearing while. It's nice! I think you can cool them in the hot weather too? Not sure on that!

voice command for anything while driving is also super nice, and fun. When I say "deactivate climate", one of my (adult) children says I sound like a supervillian attacking the planet!

Not having LR, the battery in winter doesn't go as far as specs, using all those heating elements. Dealership said best range is at 50-80 degrees, there is also the battery warming itself up, and I have it on sentry mode as I hadn't cleared space in my garage as I intended...there is a lot of stuff in there. I think better to have the outdoor funture battle the winter weather on it's own rather than the car, but the table told the chairs not to walk out on their own, so waiting for a time to do all that, and busy with holiday stuff right now....

Looks like tesla has doubled the incentive for this month! Good luck getting one you like! feeling a bit disappointed!! Like they should refund me the difference, lol!

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1509 on: December 22, 2022, 12:49:55 PM »
large dip on tesla stock price today.....at about 125 share price, I put the PE at slightly under 34 right now, with a peg of .75.

Based on the past 4 quarters, and the previous 4 quarters for the percent growth (which I got at 45%). Would love if someone would check and see if I calcualted this right! I used the EPS per quarter info out of tdamertrade, as I can see they do not update these numbers that often!

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1510 on: December 22, 2022, 12:59:17 PM »

If environmental impact is truly a consideration, I'd strongly advise that you put some thought (and a little math) into whether hoarding a whole bunch of KWH of LiIon battery capacity that's rarely used to it's full capacity is truly the best option moving forward.
I'm sorry, but this seems like a major stretch and a true "think of the children!" level of pearl clutching. "So many batteries! I'm so concerned about battery hoarding!"

Yes, thank you!

I guess I can see why some posters are very bearish on tesla if there is never a good reason to buy an electric vehicle, never a good reason to get solar added to your roof, why would you see the value in tesla as a company or their individual products?

We could all go back to the land and take a shovel outside when we have to shit......But for some reason, we just don't. In the meantime, doing what one can is important. And making products that people who don't think all that much about the environmental factor would also like and consider is good thing for all of us.

But I think that what you've quoted above and your comment sums it up completely for me. No matter what I would say about what I was planning, why I am a tesla customer, there would also be some reason I was "wrong". Some reason I was dumb, suckered, not doing enough environmentally. I wasn't looking for a critique, I was trying to open up the view into a tesla customer, but of course that went sideways :)

vand

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1511 on: December 22, 2022, 01:08:59 PM »
large dip on tesla stock price today.....at about 125 share price, I put the PE at slightly under 34 right now, with a peg of .75.

Based on the past 4 quarters, and the previous 4 quarters for the percent growth (which I got at 45%). Would love if someone would check and see if I calcualted this right! I used the EPS per quarter info out of tdamertrade, as I can see they do not update these numbers that often!

Stop using recent past growth to project future growth - the market is telling you that it isn't going to continue!

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1512 on: December 22, 2022, 01:38:19 PM »
This just reads like parody to me, especially in light of MMM. I just don't relate to any of it (except the dealership model comment, although I've only tried it once and ended up walking out to go buy a car on craigslist because that was way less sketchy)

how so? are you reacting to the use of the word consumerism specifically?

Checking the definition to see if I used it correctly, and it has several definitions, and even some nuances within those definitions......some of which are weightier than others. So perhaps it was a poor word choice there. I was speaking of myself as a consumer, a customer, a buyer, nosomuch as a philosophy of high consumption as a mandate or anything. But I would hope one would read a little more detailed before calling it a parody. Buying a roof is a once every 20-30 years purchase, and a car every 10-20 (at least herearound!), So I don't think that discussing these two very low volume purchases would necessarily bring to mind those negative connotations, particularly as I mentioned wanting some of them for decades, and planning for them for years.

On a side note: You can't walk out of a dealership when they have the keys to your current car and won't give it back.

Not the word specifically, just the general sentiment.

First, I want to first share a toast to ridding ourselves of dealerships. I absolutely loathe them, and I haven't even bought a car from them. I've tried a couple of times and it was an awful experience even in the process before they had my money/keys.

I don't really want to get too personal here; I don't know your life story or your decisions or thought process. In my following rambling, I don't want to get too much into the weeds of your particular case. But the "parody" comment really came like I was reading a MMM April Fool's post. Here are a few interpretations to what was written:

"I couldn't bother getting solar panels because I considered them ugly, but now that they look cool and I was going to get a new roof anyway, it's literally the only choice any sane, thoughtful person could make- you know, saving the earth and all. I'm doing this for you, you should thank me", with the implication that you're making an environmentally conscious choice, but if the panels were ugly, then you wouldn't be bothered.

"I will pay any price for an new EV, no price is too high for saving the planet!" Again, this is the MMM forum, so this type of statement used to get a friendly facepunch! Since discovering the blog/forum a little over 10 years ago, I've been making some fairly drastic life changes. They were baby steps, but they were steps to life a more full life whilst getting out of the rat race of consumerism. I moved less than a mile away from work- with an enviously easy bicycle commute in the suburbs of Chicago (suburbs being notoriously difficult for this kind of thing). For several years our family owned one car; a Pontiac vibe. We now own two, just picked up a minivan with 180K miles on it and have since used it to haul pianos, plywood, drywall and such, as well as shuttle cousins around. But our collective mileage on both vehicles is ridiculously small; buying a new EV would take literally decades to make up for financially. Without trying to sound like beating my own drum too much, I would like to think that I've done pretty well in my effort to reduce my impact on the climate. We also eat significantly less meat than we used to (maybe 4 out of our 21 weekly meals), we reuse and repair most of our stuff and enjoy lots of cheap, healthy outdoor activities.

I realize my criticisms here are not received with open arms to most of the country. It isn't something that most people can just jump into either. But most people on this forum should be familiar with it at least. The idea that if you could only just buy that expensive new EV, solar roof, and battery, then your conscience is clear and you can live worry free, just seems like the same chasing the dragon of consumerism. What would you do if the EV wasn't an option? How are the negative externalities to vehicle ownership, especially a 4,000 lb heavy metal ridden machine, factoring into this? There are more than just CO2 emissions here. 6PPD, a chemical in vehicle tires, is killing the salmon in Puget sound. This comes from the tires wearing on the roads and that runoff going into the water. Heavier vehicles wear tires more. Imagine the amount of wear and tear saved if one had switched to a 40lb bicycle rather than an EV!


If environmental impact is truly a consideration, I'd strongly advise that you put some thought (and a little math) into whether hoarding a whole bunch of KWH of LiIon battery capacity that's rarely used to it's full capacity is truly the best option moving forward.
I'm sorry, but this seems like a major stretch and a true "think of the children!" level of pearl clutching. "So many batteries! I'm so concerned about battery hoarding!"

It's not the buying an EV that's the issue at heart here. No one is particularly criticizing it on it's own. The criticism comes when the buying an EV is paired with holier-than-thou environmentalism, as though the person is making great sacrifices for the collective good, when in fact they are just buying a monolith to consumption.

Thank you for being specific. I think this is helpful for the conversation.

"I couldn't bother getting solar panels because I considered them ugly, but now that they look cool and I was going to get a new roof anyway, it's literally the only choice any sane, thoughtful person could make- you know, saving the earth and all. I'm doing this for you, you should thank me"

This interpretation is not accurate, but I'm will to fault myself on not being specific. I was always going to get solar eventually, I wasn't in a financial position to do so for a while, and I didn't really like the way they looked. I had my own ideas on when I got them, I was just thinking it would be best for the solar panels to just cover the whole roof, instead of being floating in the middle of it, and I had planned to try to do that when I got them, which was still a way off as I didn't want to get them put onto an older roof - but I would periodically shop around and see what was going on with solar development, etc. and found the tesla roof info just googling around and I was bowled over and thought - this is perfect! this is what I want!

"I will pay any price for an new EV, no price is too high for saving the planet!"

The first I heard about tesla was on a late night talk show where musk was a guest. Maybe about 5 years ago? Not sure. oh looking back - it may have been 2015...google search of musk guest slots.....

Anyhoo, I was so excited to hear about this company! I had a 4ish year corolla at that time, so plenty of life left in there and many years to plan, and I did want a tesla for my next car and thought that my financial situation would improve by the time the corolla got older (and it did!). But I did want to support a company that was looking at things this way, rather than an automaker who is being pulled into EV as just another consumer niche to fill. So my support of the company is based there. Telling me that a company that is going to go all electric by 2035 and that is the same level of committment, that doesn't make any sense to me. It's not that no price is too high, it's that I'm supporting a company that changed the future of consumer acceptance and demand for EV.

I am by nature a vengeful consumer! I buy nothing from the koch bros companies, for example. So most toilet paper and paper towel brands are off. So I do thinking about what I am supporting financially with my purchase decisions, and I've been like that for a very long time. Sometimes, I have to buy things from companies I don't like, and don't want to support, but I do try my best to not put my money where I don't agree with.

Quote
The criticism comes when the buying an EV is paired with holier-than-thou environmentalism, as though the person is making great sacrifices for the collective good

I think this is really unfair. I was describing my though processes on why I was attracted to tesla as a company, why I wanted their products. It was just a 'here is what I was thinking when I made the decision' that I wanted their car, or I wanted their roof. I do surely regret mentioning it all. I personally am tired of talking about it, lol!

I wasn't looking for approval, I wasn't trying to be holier than thou, I was trying to say this is what I think, this is what I feel, this is why tesla products appeal to me. I was trying to provide basic information about the tesla customer base, which I considered myself a member of. Some people don't even beleive climate change is affected by people's activities.......so if someone doesn't beleive that, they would likely not be interested in an electric vehicle at all. However, my thought was that even that person who didn't beleive could understand that another person who beleived it was affecting climate change would target an EV, would want to support a company that was 100% EV focused.

So it was just intended as information on the tesla customer, and why they would buy.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1513 on: December 22, 2022, 01:44:38 PM »
We could all go back to the land and take a shovel outside when we have to shit......But for some reason, we just don't. In the meantime, doing what one can is important. And making products that people who don't think all that much about the environmental factor would also like and consider is good thing for all of us.

But I think that what you've quoted above and your comment sums it up completely for me. No matter what I would say about what I was planning, why I am a tesla customer, there would also be some reason I was "wrong". Some reason I was dumb, suckered, not doing enough environmentally. I wasn't looking for a critique, I was trying to open up the view into a tesla customer, but of course that went sideways :)

Yes, so take it one step further. Design society so that most people don't need to own a car! There are places in the world where most people don't even think about owning one, and it's not due to poverty. I'm pushing back on the assumption that, well, hey- we're stuck with cars and suburbs and mcmansions so I guess we can just shrug and make 300mile range behemoths and cover our roofs in silicone so that we aren't inconvenienced in any way as we plow our way into the future. We'll buy our way out!

The base assumption - that the car is inevitable - is the most dangerous one to me. Because it makes us complacent in the status quo (if we are indeed going to make headway against climate change), by swapping one huge unnecessary living-room-on-wheels for another. It makes it feel like if only we were to all buy EV's our environmental damage would be solved. 

Re; the part in bold. The inverse can also be true. No matter how many counter points or interesting views that you come across, you seem to be convinced that buying into the Tesla ecosystm is the only "correct" way forward. I think the more each viewpoint pushes against each other here, the stronger one stands in their own convictions.

Like a person stuck on a treadmill getting fancy new walking shoes and sports drink and tv system being told - "hey, you know, you can just get off the treadmill", the sunk cost of the current lifestyle makes that a difficult leap. It is perceived as offensive and personal and insulting to bring up... and it's easier to just think about the cool new gel shoes that will finally solve your problems. Way better than shoveling shit, after all!




StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1514 on: December 22, 2022, 01:46:08 PM »
Quote
The criticism comes when the buying an EV is paired with holier-than-thou environmentalism, as though the person is making great sacrifices for the collective good

I think this is really unfair. I was describing my though processes on why I was attracted to tesla as a company, why I wanted their products. It was just a 'here is what I was thinking when I made the decision' that I wanted their car, or I wanted their roof. I do surely regret mentioning it all. I personally am tired of talking about it, lol!

I wasn't looking for approval, I wasn't trying to be holier than thou, I was trying to say this is what I think, this is what I feel, this is why tesla products appeal to me. I was trying to provide basic information about the tesla customer base, which I considered myself a member of. Some people don't even beleive climate change is affected by people's activities.......so if someone doesn't beleive that, they would likely not be interested in an electric vehicle at all. However, my thought was that even that person who didn't beleive could understand that another person who beleived it was affecting climate change would target an EV, would want to support a company that was 100% EV focused.

So it was just intended as information on the tesla customer, and why they would buy.

In my defense, I wasn't replying to you with that quote. You've been nothing but cordial and I very much appreciate you sharing your thoughts. I sincerely don't want this to be directed at you, as I do not know you. It is my frustrations sometimes with this subject, and I sometimes vent on this forum because it often has like minded folks who understand that there are alternative (and I think better) avenues to life than the golden handcuffs that are so easy to fall into, and MMM has encapsulated that very well without being all hippy and unrealistic.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2022, 01:48:43 PM by StashingAway »

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1515 on: December 22, 2022, 02:14:35 PM »
Tesla finances:

https://twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1603371089853382657

In the beginning, Tesla was a dream. From that point to today, the company raised $32 billion in equity capital and earned a cumulative profit of $9 billion. Book value, firm equity, sums to $41 billion. The CEO has sold $40 billion of shares (all given as options), and counting.

Does Musk selling at this level bother any holders?

He needs all the cash to run Twitter into the ground though.  :P

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1516 on: December 22, 2022, 02:27:36 PM »
I'm starting to wonder about Musk's mental health. First he spends his fortune on a pot joke. Now he thinks the FBI paid Twitter to bury Hunter Biden content? That's not the kind of thinking done by world-class minds, it's the way people think when they've isolated themselves from real human beings and become social media repeater drones. It's crazy uncle thinking. Anyone who was not rich and behaved like E.M. is behaving would not have our respect right now.

If past behavior is a guide, E.M. will go for broke using his Tesla shares to finance Twitter into the ground.

achvfi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1517 on: December 22, 2022, 02:41:31 PM »
I'm starting to wonder about Musk's mental health. First he spends his fortune on a pot joke. Now he thinks the FBI paid Twitter to bury Hunter Biden content? That's not the kind of thinking done by world-class minds, it's the way people think when they've isolated themselves from real human beings and become social media repeater drones. It's crazy uncle thinking. Anyone who was not rich and behaved like E.M. is behaving would not have our respect right now.

If past behavior is a guide, E.M. will go for broke using his Tesla shares to finance Twitter into the ground.

Yeah I wondered about his mental health too. I thought he is just not a rational person, but more and more I feel like he is gone mental.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1518 on: December 22, 2022, 02:46:26 PM »
We could all go back to the land and take a shovel outside when we have to shit......But for some reason, we just don't. In the meantime, doing what one can is important. And making products that people who don't think all that much about the environmental factor would also like and consider is good thing for all of us.

But I think that what you've quoted above and your comment sums it up completely for me. No matter what I would say about what I was planning, why I am a tesla customer, there would also be some reason I was "wrong". Some reason I was dumb, suckered, not doing enough environmentally. I wasn't looking for a critique, I was trying to open up the view into a tesla customer, but of course that went sideways :)

Yes, so take it one step further. Design society so that most people don't need to own a car! There are places in the world where most people don't even think about owning one, and it's not due to poverty. I'm pushing back on the assumption that, well, hey- we're stuck with cars and suburbs and mcmansions so I guess we can just shrug and make 300mile range behemoths and cover our roofs in silicone so that we aren't inconvenienced in any way as we plow our way into the future. We'll buy our way out!

The base assumption - that the car is inevitable - is the most dangerous one to me. Because it makes us complacent in the status quo (if we are indeed going to make headway against climate change), by swapping one huge unnecessary living-room-on-wheels for another. It makes it feel like if only we were to all buy EV's our environmental damage would be solved. 

Re; the part in bold. The inverse can also be true. No matter how many counter points or interesting views that you come across, you seem to be convinced that buying into the Tesla ecosystm is the only "correct" way forward. I think the more each viewpoint pushes against each other here, the stronger one stands in their own convictions.

Like a person stuck on a treadmill getting fancy new walking shoes and sports drink and tv system being told - "hey, you know, you can just get off the treadmill", the sunk cost of the current lifestyle makes that a difficult leap. It is perceived as offensive and personal and insulting to bring up... and it's easier to just think about the cool new gel shoes that will finally solve your problems. Way better than shoveling shit, after all!

I do hope cities evolve to be more ecofriendly, and I think they are.....slowly....at least in cases where climate change/pollution is a concern. But I do have to live in the city I am in today, as it exists. I've just gone 8 months without a car and it was neither easy nor really cheap, likely not even an improvement in pollution generation, and winter was going to be brutal without, and I decided to get a car. I was previously a very vigorous bicycle commuter.....long before MMM!.....but I was hurt in an accident and did not go back. I'd say 2-3 bicylist are killed in my city annually, and I'm just very grateful not to have been one of them. My illusion of invulnerability was stripped from me, and I tried, but could not go back.

Telsa is a personal choice I made. I don't think it is 'perfect' or the only one. I think it is a good choice and a reasonable choice for anyone to make today when considering an EV or roof or back up power generation. In the city and place I currently abide, I think it was a good choice and one I wanted to make.

This thread is about tesla as an investment. If the rationale someone is coming from is that tesla is not a good company, that the products are not desirable, that everyone who buys them is "wrong", that anyone who buys a car is "wrong", that anyone who opts for solar power or back up energy is "wrong", I guess that is their opinion. It isn't mine.

As an aside, I'm not seeing so high a level of action on environmentism by most people posting on MMM! so it looks like the production of the battery for the M3 produces nearly 2.5 metric tons of CO2. That is the equivalent of about 5 hours of riding in a plane somewhere. Some posters are more conservative of course, but I see a lot with many international, air-based travel plans that would create the same amount of CO2 as producing 8 batteries for M3s (for a couple with a 10 hour fight somewhere exotic). In contrast, I haven't taken a flight outside of necessary work travel in over 10 years.

And I'm not seeing people taken to task for it either!

I also just quickly looked at the thread on buying a chevy volt. It was a quick look, but I don't see anything in that thread about redesigning cities so cars are needed....

If someone is in the market to buy a car, EV or otherwise, a roof or power backup, then of course they can compare tesla to other options and find they prefer something else, or for some reason or niche  that results in that something else just fitting better into their plans. Well....kudos to them!

 

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1519 on: December 22, 2022, 02:50:04 PM »
I'm starting to wonder about Musk's mental health. First he spends his fortune on a pot joke. Now he thinks the FBI paid Twitter to bury Hunter Biden content? That's not the kind of thinking done by world-class minds, it's the way people think when they've isolated themselves from real human beings and become social media repeater drones. It's crazy uncle thinking. Anyone who was not rich and behaved like E.M. is behaving would not have our respect right now.

If past behavior is a guide, E.M. will go for broke using his Tesla shares to finance Twitter into the ground.

I agree, mental health crisis is a concern.

On the other hand, for myself, I'm happy to have him tear about twitter rather than tesla if this is in fact a meltdown. I'm very happy for him to continue to sell off his tesla shares! keep the pricing low for accumulation and makes him more easily replaced at the Tesla helm.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1520 on: December 22, 2022, 06:22:54 PM »
I realize my criticisms here are not received with open arms to most of the country.
You might take some time in self-reflection. Beating on a strawman is not making a valid criticism. If you choose to stop making caricatures to beat up and I would bet you get a better reception.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2022, 06:30:05 PM by TomTX »

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1521 on: December 22, 2022, 06:26:04 PM »
large dip on tesla stock price today.....at about 125 share price, I put the PE at slightly under 34 right now, with a peg of .75.

Based on the past 4 quarters, and the previous 4 quarters for the percent growth (which I got at 45%). Would love if someone would check and see if I calcualted this right! I used the EPS per quarter info out of tdamertrade, as I can see they do not update these numbers that often!

Stop using recent past growth to project future growth - the market is telling you that it isn't going to continue!
Absolutely! If you look at long term Tesla growth rates it's more like 50%!

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1522 on: December 22, 2022, 06:28:18 PM »
I'm starting to wonder about Musk's mental health. First he spends his fortune on a pot joke. Now he thinks the FBI paid Twitter to bury Hunter Biden content? That's not the kind of thinking done by world-class minds, it's the way people think when they've isolated themselves from real human beings and become social media repeater drones. It's crazy uncle thinking. Anyone who was not rich and behaved like E.M. is behaving would not have our respect right now.

If past behavior is a guide, E.M. will go for broke using his Tesla shares to finance Twitter into the ground.

Yeah I wondered about his mental health too. I thought he is just not a rational person, but more and more I feel like he is gone mental.
Yep. He's been going further and further off the deep end into the Qanon conspiracy bullshit.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1523 on: December 22, 2022, 06:32:22 PM »
On a side note: You can't walk out of a dealership when they have the keys to your current car and won't give it back.
"You have two minutes to produce my keys, or I'm calling 911"

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1524 on: December 22, 2022, 06:39:23 PM »
I realize my criticisms here are not received with open arms to most of the country.
You might take some time in self-reflection. Beating on a strawman is not making a valid criticism. If you choose to stop making caricatures to beat up and I would bet you get a better reception.

Beating on a strawman? Explain please. I feel I have been very fair to the counterargument.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1525 on: December 22, 2022, 06:39:38 PM »
The part I don't understand about Tesla versus other mid-range to aspirational car companies is the huge amount of risk.

I mean, looking at Mercedes-Benz, it trades on 5.2 P/E with a forward dividend yield of 8%. BMW, a close peer, trades on 3 P/E and 7%. Tesla doesn't pay a dividend. How is this company better/more valuable (by 8x or 12x respectively) than BMW/Mercedes Benz that both have been around for a long time, have proven products and a wealth of patents and experience, as well as a company culture that isn't nearly as toxic (racist) as Tesla? Honestly don't understand it, but I'm more a value investor.
You are completely ignoring the liabilities, stranded assets, debt loads and other risks of the legacy manufacturers. As just one example: most of them have billions of dollars of book value in ICE engine factories which are going to be worthless pretty soon (within 10 years.)

Here's a look at Ford on the debt/liabilities issue: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-why-ford-motor-nyse:f-has-a-meaningful-debt-burden

Beyond that, switching all (or most) of a company's products from ICE to EV is quite risky. Are they going too fast (almost certainly not) Too slowly? Likely so, if they're not VAG or Chinese. What to do with those billions of dollars in ICE engine factories? Spend billions retooling to make electric motors? Where's the cash coming from, or do they need to issue more debt to finance it - at today's rates?

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1526 on: December 22, 2022, 06:43:49 PM »
I realize my criticisms here are not received with open arms to most of the country.
You might take some time in self-reflection. Beating on a strawman is not making a valid criticism. If you choose to stop making caricatures to beat up and I would bet you get a better reception.

Beating on a strawman? Explain please. I feel I have been very fair to the counterargument.
You created exaggerated caricatures of mistymoney's statements and positions, then ridiculed the mistymoney via the exaggerated caricatures you created rather than engaging in honest discussion. You even put "quotes" around your exaggerated caricatures - which I would be inclined to call bald-face lying.

Example: "I will pay any price for an new EV, no price is too high for saving the planet!"

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1527 on: December 22, 2022, 07:24:41 PM »
The part I don't understand about Tesla versus other mid-range to aspirational car companies is the huge amount of risk.

I mean, looking at Mercedes-Benz, it trades on 5.2 P/E with a forward dividend yield of 8%. BMW, a close peer, trades on 3 P/E and 7%. Tesla doesn't pay a dividend. How is this company better/more valuable (by 8x or 12x respectively) than BMW/Mercedes Benz that both have been around for a long time, have proven products and a wealth of patents and experience, as well as a company culture that isn't nearly as toxic (racist) as Tesla? Honestly don't understand it, but I'm more a value investor.
You are completely ignoring the liabilities, stranded assets, debt loads and other risks of the legacy manufacturers. As just one example: most of them have billions of dollars of book value in ICE engine factories which are going to be worthless pretty soon (within 10 years.)

Here's a look at Ford on the debt/liabilities issue: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-why-ford-motor-nyse:f-has-a-meaningful-debt-burden

Beyond that, switching all (or most) of a company's products from ICE to EV is quite risky. Are they going too fast (almost certainly not) Too slowly? Likely so, if they're not VAG or Chinese. What to do with those billions of dollars in ICE engine factories? Spend billions retooling to make electric motors? Where's the cash coming from, or do they need to issue more debt to finance it - at today's rates?

For F and GM, others in america - are there pension liabilities for the AUW? I don't see it mentioned here. Does the UAW take the money already, so nothing owed by the manufacturers?

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1528 on: December 22, 2022, 10:29:57 PM »
@mistymoney , which was your M3 configuration?  I'm looking at the LR AWD in red with 19" wheels.  Share your thoughts so far if you'd like.  Our first EV was a 2022 Kia Niro and we love having an EV.

@UltraStache you certainly deserve a friendly MMM facepunch.

You just started cleaning up your finances at a later age. Are you seriously spending on a 60K car? unbelievable. Cars are a money sucking machines, this is lot worse.

You can get same utility with 10-15k spend.

Gotta consider TOC, longevity, and tax breaks. On the utility front only Tesla has a reliable countrywide fast charging network. Looking only at purchase price shows a lack of understanding. Tesla purchase will make up the up-front premium over time and be more to drive.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1529 on: December 22, 2022, 10:31:51 PM »
Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

The market does not always act rationally and the stock price is not the company. The company continues to execute and grow rapidly. Since I’m an investor and not a trader the short term volatility does not concern me beyond the buying opportunity it presents.



Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1530 on: December 23, 2022, 01:03:15 AM »
Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

Someone in 2021 could have said something completely opposite to what you just said:
"Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bear thesis has been broken. As impressive as the bear arguments have been, the market is clearly indicating a bright future ahead.".

You see how silly your statement is?

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1531 on: December 23, 2022, 01:15:56 AM »
@mistymoney , which was your M3 configuration?  I'm looking at the LR AWD in red with 19" wheels.  Share your thoughts so far if you'd like.  Our first EV was a 2022 Kia Niro and we love having an EV.

@UltraStache you certainly deserve a friendly MMM facepunch.

You just started cleaning up your finances at a later age. Are you seriously spending on a 60K car? unbelievable. Cars are a money sucking machines, this is lot worse.

You can get same utility with 10-15k spend.

I've realized there is a good amount of posters here who see his/her car as a utility, to get from point A to point B. They spend the minimum on a working car(it's a utility) and would be happy to drive a Camry or Corolla for 25 years.

I should have known that since this is a MMM forum.

But just remember that there are other market segments in which people want a Porsche, a fully loaded F150, a Mercedes, a Tesla, a BMW, etc. And in the future, who is to say that Tesla won't have vehicles in lower price points? Companies adapt.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1532 on: December 23, 2022, 01:25:30 AM »
We could all go back to the land and take a shovel outside when we have to shit......But for some reason, we just don't. In the meantime, doing what one can is important. And making products that people who don't think all that much about the environmental factor would also like and consider is good thing for all of us.

But I think that what you've quoted above and your comment sums it up completely for me. No matter what I would say about what I was planning, why I am a tesla customer, there would also be some reason I was "wrong". Some reason I was dumb, suckered, not doing enough environmentally. I wasn't looking for a critique, I was trying to open up the view into a tesla customer, but of course that went sideways :)

Yes, so take it one step further. Design society so that most people don't need to own a car! There are places in the world where most people don't even think about owning one, and it's not due to poverty. I'm pushing back on the assumption that, well, hey- we're stuck with cars and suburbs and mcmansions so I guess we can just shrug and make 300mile range behemoths and cover our roofs in silicone so that we aren't inconvenienced in any way as we plow our way into the future. We'll buy our way out!

The base assumption - that the car is inevitable - is the most dangerous one to me. Because it makes us complacent in the status quo (if we are indeed going to make headway against climate change), by swapping one huge unnecessary living-room-on-wheels for another. It makes it feel like if only we were to all buy EV's our environmental damage would be solved. 

Re; the part in bold. The inverse can also be true. No matter how many counter points or interesting views that you come across, you seem to be convinced that buying into the Tesla ecosystm is the only "correct" way forward. I think the more each viewpoint pushes against each other here, the stronger one stands in their own convictions.

Like a person stuck on a treadmill getting fancy new walking shoes and sports drink and tv system being told - "hey, you know, you can just get off the treadmill", the sunk cost of the current lifestyle makes that a difficult leap. It is perceived as offensive and personal and insulting to bring up... and it's easier to just think about the cool new gel shoes that will finally solve your problems. Way better than shoveling shit, after all!

I think you're advocating that we get rid of private car ownerships. I've spent time in a couple urban cities outside U.S. where I only use the public transportation. It was very nice. However, getting rid of cars is just not realistic in most areas in U.S.. The population is just too sparse. The only place that has the density is probably NYC but good luck making changes to the roads/infrastructure there. You've brought up this topic a couple times at least but I don't know how helpful it is to voice this particular concern on a forum though. Have you tried participating in city planning in your area? TBH, I don't even know where to start.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1533 on: December 23, 2022, 01:33:11 AM »
Recently I listened to the recordings of 2 recent Twitter Spaces recordings in which Elon Musk discussed the challenges at Twitter. What he said was very rational. I had concern that the Twitter thing would be a big drag and that Elon Musk was no longer the same Elon Musk that I knew. I no longer has those concerns. If my understanding is correct, Twitter will stabilize in 6-12 months.

That said, the economy will still be rough on all auto makers, not just Tesla. The stock market will be rough until the economy turns for the better.

vand

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1534 on: December 23, 2022, 01:50:33 AM »
Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

The market does not always act rationally and the stock price is not the company. The company continues to execute and grow rapidly. Since I’m an investor and not a trader the short term volatility does not concern me beyond the buying opportunity it presents.

All that really means is you have no capacity for re-evaluation of your thesis based on new evidence. Sure, the market doesn't act rationally, but that's not to say every huge drop in a company's stock is also irrational.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1535 on: December 23, 2022, 07:34:11 AM »
I realize my criticisms here are not received with open arms to most of the country.
You might take some time in self-reflection. Beating on a strawman is not making a valid criticism. If you choose to stop making caricatures to beat up and I would bet you get a better reception.

Beating on a strawman? Explain please. I feel I have been very fair to the counterargument.
You created exaggerated caricatures of mistymoney's statements and positions, then ridiculed the mistymoney via the exaggerated caricatures you created rather than engaging in honest discussion. You even put "quotes" around your exaggerated caricatures - which I would be inclined to call bald-face lying.

Example: "I will pay any price for an new EV, no price is too high for saving the planet!"

My friend, this is the MMM forum. I reserve the right to be hyperbolic and doll out facepunches. I am not being insulting or speaking with a tone or intent of malice. If that gets misconstrued as straw manning, then we are not speaking in the same context. I thought I was being clear with the quotes that they were not mistymoney's words, but rather an exaggerated interpretation of them.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1536 on: December 23, 2022, 07:39:43 AM »
I think you're advocating that we get rid of private car ownerships. I've spent time in a couple urban cities outside U.S. where I only use the public transportation. It was very nice. However, getting rid of cars is just not realistic in most areas in U.S.. The population is just too sparse. The only place that has the density is probably NYC but good luck making changes to the roads/infrastructure there. You've brought up this topic a couple times at least but I don't know how helpful it is to voice this particular concern on a forum though. Have you tried participating in city planning in your area? TBH, I don't even know where to start.

You're right, I am getting too off track for this particular thread. It isn't the right subject matter for here (I do have thorough responses to your points, but this isn't the place). I am only voicing why someone may be an environmentalist but not required to be enthusiastic about EVs or Tesla. Earlier in the thread it was mentioned that we should be rooting for them regardless.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1537 on: December 23, 2022, 10:34:01 AM »
Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

The market does not always act rationally and the stock price is not the company. The company continues to execute and grow rapidly. Since I’m an investor and not a trader the short term volatility does not concern me beyond the buying opportunity it presents.

I do agree, but I still have concerns on Musk's influence on tesla being the green choice for EVs, and the developing never musk/tesla due to twittering....

One of my offspring begged me not to buy a tesla, said but elon musk is cancelled.......However, after experiencing the ride, now they want to drive it :)

Just wished tesla was a little more established before musk flaked out into qanon territory! So people see the deal :)

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1538 on: December 23, 2022, 10:43:28 AM »
@mistymoney , which was your M3 configuration?  I'm looking at the LR AWD in red with 19" wheels.  Share your thoughts so far if you'd like.  Our first EV was a 2022 Kia Niro and we love having an EV.

@UltraStache you certainly deserve a friendly MMM facepunch.

You just started cleaning up your finances at a later age. Are you seriously spending on a 60K car? unbelievable. Cars are a money sucking machines, this is lot worse.

You can get same utility with 10-15k spend.

I've realized there is a good amount of posters here who see his/her car as a utility, to get from point A to point B. They spend the minimum on a working car(it's a utility) and would be happy to drive a Camry or Corolla for 25 years.

I should have known that since this is a MMM forum.

But just remember that there are other market segments in which people want a Porsche, a fully loaded F150, a Mercedes, a Tesla, a BMW, etc. And in the future, who is to say that Tesla won't have vehicles in lower price points? Companies adapt.

I think there is more nuance to this. You are positing a value over luxury proposition, which makes sense when you are looking at similar performance over time, just the ride is posh or not. But if we back up to look at cost per mile, I think the tesla is going to become far more competitive to the 25 years on a camry or corolla. And possibly emerging as the better deal.

https://futurism.com/the-byte/tesla-mileage-battery-capacity
Quote
Case in point, the auto enthusiasts at YouTube channel Out of Spec Reviews say they've tracked down a Tesla Model X that's clocked an impressive 200,000 miles while only losing 10 percent of its battery capacity. Not bad.


https://insideevs.com/news/592845/tesla-model-s-passes-1-million-miles/
Quote
German Tesla Model S owner Hansjörg Gemmingen has been keeping the world apprised of his mileage over the years, as he aims to set new world records. Now, he's officially revealed that his Model S P85 has traveled over 1 million miles.

As far as Gemmingen is concerned, the new record will likely make it into the Guinness Book of World Records, which would be a major positive for Tesla and the EV industry as a whole.

More data is needed of course, but the cost of ownership of a carolla or camry greatly increase after about 7-8 years with more frequent car repairs as the years continue.

I recently supercharged my M3, and it was $17.79.

Looking forward to see how much of that charging can come from the sun hitting my roof! 2023 or 2024 for that piece of it.....2025 at the most outside....

nick663

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1539 on: December 23, 2022, 10:48:51 AM »
Recently I listened to the recordings of 2 recent Twitter Spaces recordings in which Elon Musk discussed the challenges at Twitter. What he said was very rational. I had concern that the Twitter thing would be a big drag and that Elon Musk was no longer the same Elon Musk that I knew. I no longer has those concerns. If my understanding is correct, Twitter will stabilize in 6-12 months.

That said, the economy will still be rough on all auto makers, not just Tesla. The stock market will be rough until the economy turns for the better.
Did you listen to the one where Elon was discussing banning journalists and hung up because he didn't like the feedback he was receiving?  it didn't inspire confidence.

https://twitter.com/ForeverEversley/status/1603612770892918784

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1540 on: December 23, 2022, 11:12:15 AM »
Recently I listened to the recordings of 2 recent Twitter Spaces recordings in which Elon Musk discussed the challenges at Twitter. What he said was very rational. I had concern that the Twitter thing would be a big drag and that Elon Musk was no longer the same Elon Musk that I knew. I no longer has those concerns. If my understanding is correct, Twitter will stabilize in 6-12 months.

That said, the economy will still be rough on all auto makers, not just Tesla. The stock market will be rough until the economy turns for the better.

That is good to hear!

two things I beleive about musk. He is egotistical and he is crafty. A part of me thinks he has taken such offense to any criticism that he is deliberately taking tesla stock as low as it can go to wash out the more speculative/trader stock holders and so that only what he perceives as his true understanding tesla fan base reamins with the stock. Then let the good new flow!

He mentioned at the oct 19th 3rd quarters earning call that 4th q was going to be good....what did he know just half way through the Q? Hyperbole? Or something of real significance?

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1541 on: December 23, 2022, 11:20:10 AM »
Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

The market does not always act rationally and the stock price is not the company. The company continues to execute and grow rapidly. Since I’m an investor and not a trader the short term volatility does not concern me beyond the buying opportunity it presents.

All that really means is you have no capacity for re-evaluation of your thesis based on new evidence. Sure, the market doesn't act rationally, but that's not to say every huge drop in a company's stock is also irrational.

however, you interpret it as completely rational, and the upmovement as irrational. How is that different?

Scandium

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1542 on: December 23, 2022, 11:25:18 AM »

I think there is more nuance to this. You are positing a value over luxury proposition, which makes sense when you are looking at similar performance over time, just the ride is posh or not. But if we back up to look at cost per mile, I think the tesla is going to become far more competitive to the 25 years on a camry or corolla. And possibly emerging as the better deal.

This makes no sense to me regarding tesla. People who drop $70-100k on a car obviously don't care about "cost of ownership"! Only reason to buy BMW, Mercedes and Tesla are luxury, image, and for the latter; greenwashing. Who spends $100k on a model X, then pat themselves on the back because it's $1000/year lower over time?? Absurd. (and most will probably ditch for something new in 3-5 years anyway).
Tesla has been successful by targeting the "money is no object" and "I want to look cool and green at the same time" crowd. And it's worked pretty well. Add in some irrational investors and a blindly uncritical media coverage of their loony CEO and the stock has done well too.

NorCal

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1543 on: December 23, 2022, 12:46:21 PM »
Recently I listened to the recordings of 2 recent Twitter Spaces recordings in which Elon Musk discussed the challenges at Twitter. What he said was very rational. I had concern that the Twitter thing would be a big drag and that Elon Musk was no longer the same Elon Musk that I knew. I no longer has those concerns. If my understanding is correct, Twitter will stabilize in 6-12 months.

That said, the economy will still be rough on all auto makers, not just Tesla. The stock market will be rough until the economy turns for the better.

The problem I has is that Elon Musk is an expert at saying the right thing and then doing the opposite.  I don't see how anyone could trust a word he says anymore.

As I'm watching the market, my optimism for Tesla in 2023 is fading rapidly.  I posted up-thread an expectation that they'll increase 2023 deliveries by a third.  I no longer believe this to be true.

Tesla relies on word-of-mouth marketing to sell cars.  They don't have a marketing budget or a meaningful sales team.  They generate sales because someone buys a car and tells all of their friends about how great it is.  And they do make good cars.  I've know multiple people that have bought them since 2014, and each one has become a semi sales person for the company.  To the point of being annoying about it.

Something interesting started happening a few months back when Elon started taking his crazy pills.  Everyone who owned a Tesla is still happy with it, but they're strangely silent about telling their friends.  They just don't care to talk about it like they used to.  Elon Musk broke Tesla's sales model. 

With a slowing economy, higher interest rates and lower consumer sentiment, now is the absolute worst time to mess with the sales model.  I'll wouldn't be surprised if their 2023 sales are flat or decline from 2022.  Probably on lower pricing too. 

While Tesla will be fine in the long term, their path to recovery means figuring out a way to get rid of Musk.  The sooner they make this call the better.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1544 on: December 23, 2022, 04:16:29 PM »
With a slowing economy, higher interest rates and lower consumer sentiment, now is the absolute worst time to mess with the sales model.  I'll wouldn't be surprised if their 2023 sales are flat or decline from 2022.  Probably on lower pricing too. 

While Tesla will be fine in the long term, their path to recovery means figuring out a way to get rid of Musk.  The sooner they make this call the better.

All signs -- overall China pain, the related Shanghai factory slowdown, and US Tesla rebates increasing -- point to a Q4 delivery miss. The stock likely has this priced in already.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1545 on: December 23, 2022, 06:38:01 PM »
With the recent price adjustment, model 3 and Y inventory are quickly sold out in many local areas in the U.S. 
That said, the price adjustment will probably bring down the margin a couple percentage points this quarter.

EchoStache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1546 on: December 24, 2022, 02:40:00 PM »
Supply in my area went to zero within two days of the $7500 discount.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1547 on: December 25, 2022, 06:40:21 PM »
My friend, this is the MMM forum. I reserve the right to be hyperbolic and doll out facepunches. I am not being insulting or speaking with a tone or intent of malice. If that gets misconstrued as straw manning, then we are not speaking in the same context. I thought I was being clear with the quotes that they were not mistymoney's words, but rather an exaggerated interpretation of them.
OK, buddy. You keep telling yourself that. It's still strawmanning.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1548 on: December 26, 2022, 12:07:57 AM »
Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

The market does not always act rationally and the stock price is not the company. The company continues to execute and grow rapidly. Since I’m an investor and not a trader the short term volatility does not concern me beyond the buying opportunity it presents.

All that really means is you have no capacity for re-evaluation of your thesis based on new evidence. Sure, the market doesn't act rationally, but that's not to say every huge drop in a company's stock is also irrational.

Please spare me the patronizing condescension. I posted me investment thesis years ago to this very thread and constantly reevaluate that thesis in light of new information. I have made factual post after factual post to this thread explaining Tesla’s technical and financial advantages. People are certainly free to disagree, but I will never understand why folks who have failed in the past to see Tesla’s rapid growth and profitability feel the need to ascribe the success of those that did to blind luck or religious like fervor. I’ve listened and will continue to listen to contrary view points. That I’ve found no bear arguments compelling (with respect to Tesla’s long term prospects) is not for lack of consideration on my part.

What would you call it, if not irrational, for a company to lose 60% of its stock price value, at the same time it’s making industry leading margins and growing 40-50% YOY, mostly because of macro declines and largely irrelevant Twitter noise. I could understand some amount of drop due to Elon’s stock sales and larger recession fears, but the stock price has become completely detached from the company’s execution. This will eventually be rectified, which makes the current stock price attractive IMO.

I won’t insult you in kind for having a different opinion. I’ve dealt with patronizing advice/concern going back to 2013 and Tesla has proven my understanding of the market to be correct time and again. This thread and time will settle who has the more accurate read of the current situation.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1549 on: December 26, 2022, 12:17:44 AM »

I think there is more nuance to this. You are positing a value over luxury proposition, which makes sense when you are looking at similar performance over time, just the ride is posh or not. But if we back up to look at cost per mile, I think the tesla is going to become far more competitive to the 25 years on a camry or corolla. And possibly emerging as the better deal.

This makes no sense to me regarding tesla. People who drop $70-100k on a car obviously don't care about "cost of ownership"! Only reason to buy BMW, Mercedes and Tesla are luxury, image, and for the latter; greenwashing. Who spends $100k on a model X, then pat themselves on the back because it's $1000/year lower over time?? Absurd. (and most will probably ditch for something new in 3-5 years anyway).
Tesla has been successful by targeting the "money is no object" and "I want to look cool and green at the same time" crowd. And it's worked pretty well. Add in some irrational investors and a blindly uncritical media coverage of their loony CEO and the stock has done well too.

Not true, customer surveys show many new Tesla owners trade in Corollas and Civics. You’re using the Model X and S pricing as a straw man, but ignoring Model 3 and Model Y pricing in the $40K - $50k starting range.  In that range, the difference in price can certainly be made up once you subtract the EV subsidies ($7,500) and factor in long-term TCO. In fact, you could come out ahead in under 10 years of ownership when comparing a base Model 3 to leading ICE sedans.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!