Author Topic: Is Day Trading Worth It?  (Read 25498 times)

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #50 on: October 03, 2016, 02:24:47 AM »
Dragonstrike - Your thoughts are all over the map.  You agree with people about long and safe investing, you mention options, you think 25-30% gains are possible.  None of this adds up.

Gilead claims to be an elite investor nobody's ever heard of, with a record that rivals Warren Buffet (Berkshire Hathaway stock), George Soros (Quantum Fund) and other names with past records - but public records, not self-proclaimed ones.  It's also possible we have another Beardstown Ladies, where they posted amazing returns until close examination revealed they treated new money they contributed as profits.  Their actual record was not good when audited.  Just claiming something isn't very interesting to me - there's no tracking, no audit, and nobody but an anonymous forum poster to validate it.

Now if you really have exceeding skill at profiting, you could post your trades in a new thread you create.  Each time you make a move, you post it and everyone waits to see what happens.  Publishing allows others to see the record of past purchases, and see how purchases turn out.  But claiming great success with no track record doesn't seem like something others should value.

AdrianC

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2016, 06:20:40 AM »
Sure, but what is long term to you?  15 years is fairly long but certainly not a lifetime.   Maybe I will get back to you in 10 more years and we can agree 25 years is long term.

In ten more years if your luck/skill holds you'll have turned your $1700 into $1.7M. That would be a fantastic record.

Has anyone had documented returns of 30% over 25 years? I can't think of anyone.

arebelspy

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #52 on: October 03, 2016, 06:43:26 AM »
My question would be, if this is repeatable/reliable, Roland, why have you not added more to the account along the way?  Why such a paltry amount in it after 15 years of 30% returns?

In other words, how come you never put your money where your mouth is? (Aside from an initial 1700 capital.)
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Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #53 on: October 03, 2016, 07:02:39 AM »
My question would be, if this is repeatable/reliable, Roland, why have you not added more to the account along the way?  Why such a paltry amount in it after 15 years of 30% returns?

In other words, how come you never put your money where your mouth is? (Aside from an initial 1700 capital.)

Because I am not crazy and realize it is very likely just incredible luck.    I do sometimes think about what if scenario, like what if the $1700 had started as $17,000 instead.  I likely would not have been so ambivalent with my initial trading risks (I had to use options to leverage the $1700 up to some amount worthwhile for trading).

The vast majority of our investments are in Vanguard index funds.   We have over $700K in a 401K that I have not even changed the fund in over 6 years.

Even now I doubt myself with this now sizeable trading account.   What if I blow it all up next year?   Unlikely I know, as part of it is in SPY, but...

arebelspy

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #54 on: October 03, 2016, 07:17:00 AM »
My question would be, if this is repeatable/reliable, Roland, why have you not added more to the account along the way?  Why such a paltry amount in it after 15 years of 30% returns?

In other words, how come you never put your money where your mouth is? (Aside from an initial 1700 capital.)

Because I am not crazy and realize it is very likely just incredible luck.    I do sometimes think about what if scenario, like what if the $1700 had started as $17,000 instead.  I likely would not have been so ambivalent with my initial trading risks (I had to use options to leverage the $1700 up to some amount worthwhile for trading).

The vast majority of our investments are in Vanguard index funds.   We have over $700K in a 401K that I have not even changed the fund in over 6 years.

Even now I doubt myself with this now sizeable trading account.   What if I blow it all up next year?   Unlikely I know, as part of it is in SPY, but...

Okay.  Probably worth adding that caveat when you post about your day trading successes in a day trading thread.  It comes off as you thinking this is a valid, reliable thing.  :)

Thanks for the clarification!
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with two kids.
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waltworks

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #55 on: October 03, 2016, 09:21:28 AM »
I'd go a step further and go back and add that caveat to all your previous posts.

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Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #56 on: October 03, 2016, 09:44:56 AM »
What caveat?  That it probably is just luck?

I would contend that Warren, Bill Gates, all of them, really relied on some luck along with their investing ability. 

Did Warren predict that Wells Fargo, which he is heavily invested in, would commit massive fraud?   Guess he didn't see that one.

What are some of those other big guys playing around with Herbalife and Valiant?

Risk pays.   Even selecting individual stocks over an index pays because it has more risk.   They say diversity is the only free lunch, but you do not make as high a gain (OR LOSS!) with a diversified portfolio.   You can see this in the options market.   Options on index like SPY sometimes trade for half or lower of the adjusted price of similar options in individual stocks.  If you sell a cash secured put at the money on SPY, you might make $5,000 on $100,000 at risk, where if you sell it on Tesla, you might make $10,000 on $100,000 at risk.

arebelspy

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #57 on: October 03, 2016, 09:48:10 AM »
What caveat?  That it probably is just luck?

Yes, I think that's what he meant.

Or, more specifically, that it is "very likely just incredible luck."

And that most of your investments are in index funds.  And maybe the even now you doubt yourself and could blow it all up next year line.
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with two kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
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waltworks

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #58 on: October 03, 2016, 10:23:35 AM »
Exactly. Whether you intended it or not, you've come off as advocating day trading here. If that's your goal, great. If you're going to be honest with people, though, you should make it clear you consider it mostly luck and don't invest most of your money this way.

-W

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #59 on: October 03, 2016, 10:36:00 AM »
I'd rather suck off a shotgun than day trade, but that's more about my personality than the relative merits of the approach.

Most people here will tell you it's a bad idea for mathematical reasons as well.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #60 on: October 03, 2016, 10:44:11 AM »


Yes, I think that's what he meant.

Or, more specifically, that it is "very likely just incredible luck."

And that most of your investments are in index funds.  And maybe the even now you doubt yourself and could blow it all up next year line.

Ok.   It is a little funny that I am getting lectured by someone heavy into individual real estate (risk) and also skates the edges of credit card fraud.  :-)

I took it as a given that nobody was so stupid as to put all of their assets at risk doing something as risky as day trading (I don't even consider myself a day trader as that term is defined).

arebelspy

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #61 on: October 03, 2016, 06:32:19 PM »
Ok.   It is a little funny that I am getting lectured

Are you?

Quote
I took it as a given that nobody was so stupid as to put all of their assets at risk doing something as risky as day trading (I don't even consider myself a day trader as that term is defined).

You'd apparently be shocked at how stupid people can be then.  Many otherwise reasonable people think they can "beat" the market via various strategies (day trading among them).  It's not even an unreasonable idea to hold at first glance, without having done any research.

We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with two kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
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Dexterous

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #62 on: October 03, 2016, 09:18:02 PM »
I did it, and now index.  'nough said :)

Shor

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #63 on: October 03, 2016, 10:15:13 PM »
I did it, and now index.  'nough said :)
Yes, that is going to be future me's position...... as soon as I can exit out of this losing position I find myself in.. XD

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #64 on: October 04, 2016, 02:09:35 AM »
Day trading not worth it. https://youtu.be/0d8M9oth330

MoonLiteNite

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #65 on: October 04, 2016, 04:26:13 AM »
My question would be, if this is repeatable/reliable, Roland, why have you not added more to the account along the way?  Why such a paltry amount in it after 15 years of 30% returns?

In other words, how come you never put your money where your mouth is? (Aside from an initial 1700 capital.)

index fund = retirement
day trading = living money to help pay the current bills.


So that is where my mouth is... and that is exactly where my money is.
And for others, i am fairly certain that none of the people who posted here are 100% in stocks and day trading and planning on retiring in 5 years...


steveo

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #66 on: October 04, 2016, 05:09:09 AM »
This is interesting:- http://www.travismorien.com/FAQ/trading/futradersuccess.htm. The data seems to state that you will lose money.

My FIL was a trader for a big bank and managed a billionaire's private hedge fund. I doubt I will ever meet someone that successful when it comes to trading. It was his job and it paid him very well. He is extremely wealthy and retired at 40 with a lot of money (he would have I guess now a net worth of like 20-30 million). For the record the billionaire's hedge fund was also traded by the billionaire and combined they lost a lot of money (I think the billionaire was more accountable for losing money than my FIL but everyone loses money at some point trading) and the fund had to be shut down.

I don't see him as one of the very few successful traders making money consistently over the long term. He also didn't day trade with his own money. He takes big positions and holds on for weeks to months. This via the facts tends to be more profitable than day trading. You can try day trading but I think it's more than likely you will lose everything and I think it's pretty close to guaranteed that you will lose everything unless you get out of the game prior to losing everything.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 05:10:40 AM by steveo »

Enigma

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #67 on: October 04, 2016, 06:12:01 AM »
Probably one of the most Stressful things I had ever done.  I would wake up hours before the market opened, checked out the foreign markets, reviewed the early morning reports and pre-market, and make dozens of trade throughout the day. Some days were positive gains and some days were negative gains.

I began to dream about the market, started buying and selling in my sleep, and the market ended up affecting my mood.  If it was a bad day for the market and for myself I was upset...  Yet if it was a good day I was happy.  Others could easily see it around me.

lordmetroid

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #68 on: October 04, 2016, 08:41:06 AM »
I did it, and now index.  'nough said :)
Me too, I lost several percent of my stash to trading. Now I am just indexing with a 1,5x leverage.

swamimeister

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #69 on: October 04, 2016, 11:16:07 AM »
My question would be, if this is repeatable/reliable, Roland, why have you not added more to the account along the way?  Why such a paltry amount in it after 15 years of 30% returns?

In other words, how come you never put your money where your mouth is? (Aside from an initial 1700 capital.)

Because I am not crazy and realize it is very likely just incredible luck.    I do sometimes think about what if scenario, like what if the $1700 had started as $17,000 instead.  I likely would not have been so ambivalent with my initial trading risks (I had to use options to leverage the $1700 up to some amount worthwhile for trading).

The vast majority of our investments are in Vanguard index funds.   We have over $700K in a 401K that I have not even changed the fund in over 6 years.

Even now I doubt myself with this now sizeable trading account.   What if I blow it all up next year?   Unlikely I know, as part of it is in SPY, but...

Okay.  Probably worth adding that caveat when you post about your day trading successes in a day trading thread.  It comes off as you thinking this is a valid, reliable thing.  :)

Thanks for the clarification!

I have enjoyed reading a lot of the post on MMM but so many posts are so conservative and attacking like this. So what if Gilead feels lucky. I don't day trade but did learn how to trade on my own. I did loose money at first but now I kill it because I knew that I would if I stuck with it. It takes time. While some of you are thrilled with a ten or twenty percent yearly return, I would be surprised if I didn't make that in a month. Up almost thirty percent today and will probably close out by end of the day. So rather than taking the time to criticize Gilead, why not put that time into learning to do what he's done. 

Dan32

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #70 on: October 04, 2016, 11:24:03 AM »
1.  I believe that Roland could have (and does have) the results posted.  But he is the exception, not the norm.  The OP (and 99+%) of the people who try this will be the norm.
2.  I find it "unusual" that this post would appear on this board, which touts success by patience and very conservative means.
3.  I would advise the OP against the use of a margin account, options trading, and leveraged funds until he gains a lot more experience.  In fact I would recommend against him ever using leveraged funds, due to the daily rebalancing that is used.
4.  Simulations are useful, but the psychology behind real trading cannot be overestimated.  Selling losing positions (even when you have a model that you believe in tells you to do so) is very difficult to do so. 

Good luck to the OP, in whatever he decides to do.  Hopefully, he will post his trades and results as a learning guide to others (Real or simulated)

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #71 on: October 04, 2016, 11:43:22 AM »
There are going to be people who make money trading, just like there are going to be online bloggers who end up making millions (*cough* MMM, *cough*).   Does it mean you will likely make significant money blogging?  Statistics say no way.  Still, it does happen.

But if 99.9% of people who try trading lose, then it is probably not a good idea.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #72 on: October 04, 2016, 11:45:16 AM »
My question would be, if this is repeatable/reliable, Roland, why have you not added more to the account along the way?  Why such a paltry amount in it after 15 years of 30% returns?

In other words, how come you never put your money where your mouth is? (Aside from an initial 1700 capital.)

Because I am not crazy and realize it is very likely just incredible luck.    I do sometimes think about what if scenario, like what if the $1700 had started as $17,000 instead.  I likely would not have been so ambivalent with my initial trading risks (I had to use options to leverage the $1700 up to some amount worthwhile for trading).

The vast majority of our investments are in Vanguard index funds.   We have over $700K in a 401K that I have not even changed the fund in over 6 years.

Even now I doubt myself with this now sizeable trading account.   What if I blow it all up next year?   Unlikely I know, as part of it is in SPY, but...

Okay.  Probably worth adding that caveat when you post about your day trading successes in a day trading thread.  It comes off as you thinking this is a valid, reliable thing.  :)

Thanks for the clarification!

I have enjoyed reading a lot of the post on MMM but so many posts are so conservative and attacking like this. So what if Gilead feels lucky. I don't day trade but did learn how to trade on my own. I did loose money at first but now I kill it because I knew that I would if I stuck with it. It takes time. While some of you are thrilled with a ten or twenty percent yearly return, I would be surprised if I didn't make that in a month. Up almost thirty percent today and will probably close out by end of the day. So rather than taking the time to criticize Gilead, why not put that time into learning to do what he's done.

You are absolutely crushing the investment returns of nearly the entire rest of the world.  Kudos.

Based on your claims, let's run some 240% yearly returns (yes, this is lower than you claim to get at 20% a month).

If you start out with 5000 dollars, and get 240% returns compounded monthly you can comfortably retire with just under 1.2 million in two and a half years.

When did you FIRE?
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 12:04:31 PM by GuitarStv »

waltworks

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #73 on: October 04, 2016, 11:54:49 AM »
I have enjoyed reading a lot of the post on MMM but so many posts are so conservative and attacking like this. So what if Gilead feels lucky. I don't day trade but did learn how to trade on my own. I did loose money at first but now I kill it because I knew that I would if I stuck with it. It takes time. While some of you are thrilled with a ten or twenty percent yearly return, I would be surprised if I didn't make that in a month. Up almost thirty percent today and will probably close out by end of the day. So rather than taking the time to criticize Gilead, why not put that time into learning to do what he's done.

We're not worthy! The best trader in history is so good he can't even _spell_ "lose", because he's a winner, baby!

Look at these hands. There's no problem here.

Seriously, thanks for the laugh. At least Roland's results are vaguely believable.

-W

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #74 on: October 04, 2016, 12:03:54 PM »
I do a lot of tiny trades now.   For example, last week I bought 3000 shares of Endocyte (a small biotech with more cash on hand than the current market cap, but no drug near end game).  I bought it for $3.09.   $9,270 plus 9.99 commission (stupid E-trade, don't get me started).  Today I sold the shares for $3.30.  $9900 minus 9.99 commission.

So I netted $610 after commissions on about $9280 at risk.   I held the stock for 5 days.   I will have to wait 3 more days for the funds to settle although I can buy something else right now (just not sell it for 3 days).  The downside to being in a IRA cash account.

$610 is a drop in the bucket when your account is over $125,000 but it does add up.   I got lucky Endocyte spiked so fast but there is some news coming out this fall/winter which makes it volatile.  I like that it has some form of a bottom in price since it is trading below cash on hand and has no debt.

swamimeister

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #75 on: October 04, 2016, 12:12:26 PM »
When did you FIRE?

About ten years ago. I still work part time though just because I enjoy it.
And to the dick who criticized my spelling - I don't like poor spelling any more than you do. I was actually aware of my misspelled word but forgot to correct it. If you would abstain from learning something that could make you a lot of money, simply because someone misspelled a word then shame on you:) 
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 12:14:09 PM by swamimeister »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #76 on: October 04, 2016, 12:14:59 PM »
A good portion of my $125,000+ account is tied up in a Gilead covered call which is about to expire.

I did a buy-write for 500 shares of Gilead when it was $79, selling Oct $80 calls at the same time for $76 per share total (5 contracts sold).   My max profit was thus $4 if the shares are called away but I did the trade across a ex-div period so I also received a couple of days ago $0.47 per share dividend.  So really my max profit is $4.47 per share, or $2235 (minus some $20 to $30 commissions depending how the trade ends).  I have $37,825 at risk and entered this trade back in August.  Today Gilead is flirting about 77.50 and the October calls I am short are only worth $0.60 (when I started they were worth over $4).  I expect to make near the $2000 mark, which would be a profit of 5.3% over not quite a three month period, or an annualized gain of 23%.  Not quite the 30+% returns I have been having in the past, so I may need to step up my game a bit :-)

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #77 on: October 04, 2016, 12:26:15 PM »
When did you FIRE?

About ten years ago. I still work part time though just because I enjoy it.

Cool.

So assuming that you've been getting these 20% monthly returns for the last ten years, and that you retired with a single dollar invested . . . your net worth is about 3.175 billion dollars now?

waltworks

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #78 on: October 04, 2016, 12:39:53 PM »
When did you FIRE?

About ten years ago. I still work part time though just because I enjoy it.

Cool.

So assuming that you've been getting these 20% monthly returns for the last ten years, and that you retired with a single dollar invested . . . your net worth is about 3.175 billion dollars now?

In another 10 years, he'll have turned that $1 into ownership of the entire world (and then some!) with a net worth of $8,400,632,947,000,000,000. The first ever (octuple!) billion-billionaire!

I'm struggling to think of ways to spend that money, though. Heat your home with Elon Musk's farts? Make world leaders dance as you fire bullets at their feet made from the Hope diamond? Have workers lay monogrammed gold brick walkways beneath your feet as you walk to the toilet, then removing the bricks soiled by your footsteps and firing them individually into the sun via custom-built space shuttles?

-W
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 12:50:29 PM by waltworks »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #79 on: October 04, 2016, 12:53:57 PM »
Heat your home with Elon Musk's farts?

Damn you!  Now I have to go set up a "go fund me" page.

GreenEggs

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #80 on: October 04, 2016, 12:56:20 PM »
A time machine would be handy for day trading. 

My day trading mom would have been rich if she'd held onto all the Priceline she had @ $2 a share.....

Btw, she's broke now.  :(

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #81 on: October 04, 2016, 12:57:17 PM »
I'm struggling to think of ways to spend that money, though. Heat your home with Elon Musk's farts? Make world leaders dance as you fire bullets at their feet made from the Hope diamond? Have workers lay monogrammed gold brick walkways beneath your feet as you walk to the toilet, then removing the bricks soiled by your footsteps and firing them individually into the sun via custom-built space shuttles?

-W
I'm disturbing my office workers with my laughter. Please try to be less hilarious! >.<

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #82 on: October 04, 2016, 04:01:45 PM »
... plus 9.99 commission (stupid E-trade, don't get me started).  Today I sold the shares for $3.30.  $9900 minus 9.99 commission.

... I will have to wait 3 more days for the funds to settle although I can buy something else right now (just not sell it for 3 days).  The downside to being in a IRA cash account...

Interactive Brokers has much lower fees and will not require you to wait for cash clearing to trade in a tax advantaged account. They also have the very best options rates.

AdrianC

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #83 on: October 04, 2016, 06:39:18 PM »
I have enjoyed reading a lot of the post on MMM but so many posts are so conservative and attacking like this. So what if Gilead feels lucky. I don't day trade but did learn how to trade on my own. I did loose money at first but now I kill it because I knew that I would if I stuck with it. It takes time. While some of you are thrilled with a ten or twenty percent yearly return, I would be surprised if I didn't make that in a month. Up almost thirty percent today and will probably close out by end of the day. So rather than taking the time to criticize Gilead, why not put that time into learning to do what he's done.

When you say "Up almost thirty percent today" you mean on that particular trade, right?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #84 on: October 04, 2016, 06:48:40 PM »
Interactive Brokers has much lower fees and will not require you to wait for cash clearing to trade in a tax advantaged account. They also have the very best options rates.

I looked at some of their fees.  In their fixed pricing structure, the fee to trade 3000 shares of Endocyte would be 0.005 USD per share, or $15.   At E-trade I pay $10.  At Optionshouse, where I have our taxable account, I pay $3, but Etrade is buying Optionshouse :-(

swamimeister

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #85 on: October 04, 2016, 08:39:12 PM »
I have enjoyed reading a lot of the post on MMM but so many posts are so conservative and attacking like this. So what if Gilead feels lucky. I don't day trade but did learn how to trade on my own. I did loose money at first but now I kill it because I knew that I would if I stuck with it. It takes time. While some of you are thrilled with a ten or twenty percent yearly return, I would be surprised if I didn't make that in a month. Up almost thirty percent today and will probably close out by end of the day. So rather than taking the time to criticize Gilead, why not put that time into learning to do what he's done.

When you say "Up almost thirty percent today" you mean on that particular trade, right?

Right. Just today on the money in that trade so not on account because some money was in cash. I think I made about four or five percent yesterday in the same trade. If you believe the people that tell you it can't be done then they will probably be right.

Dragonstrike

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #86 on: October 05, 2016, 12:50:06 AM »
Holy Hell guys!

I'm off the grid for a few days and I see something close to a crossover of "The Dictator" with Emperor Palpatine: "yes, let the hate flow through you".

Ok, so to back up, 1) This topic merely was to gain some sources about day-trading.  I have very little time as it is to even devote research to it, and I'm just collecting these resources right now.  Thank you to the posters who provided the simulations and articles: I'll definitely look those over.

2) I'm not sitting here with my life savings on hand ready to fling cash over a cliff and to the wind. This at most may be an experiment to use a thousand dollars with. 

3) When I say "day trading", I'll admit, the fault is probably on me for a lack of knowledge for terms.  In all sense, I mean to say opening a trading account, buying some shares in a company, i.e. Cyberoptics Corp, buying as many of those shares on a thousand dollars equivalent (no swing trades, no options, nothing: just the equal stock value), so if its at $25 today, then buy at $25 per share (40 in total) and selling when it hits $30 or when I feel comfortable that  a profit is made.  I know I'm not taking into consideration taxes, then commission for trade, etc., but I'll get to that point when I pick up a few books at Barnes and Noble on day trading, investment, millionaire next door, etc. 

4) The hate war on Gilead and his 20-30% returns, really, I don't care much for, but I'll enjoy sitting back and eating some popcorn, staying for only the comments.

5) Otherwise, that's all I have to say for now.  I appreciate the concern and firm advice from everyone, but rest assured I'm not going to do anything until I have the wisdom for it first. 

AdrianC

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #87 on: October 05, 2016, 06:12:31 AM »
I have enjoyed reading a lot of the post on MMM but so many posts are so conservative and attacking like this. So what if Gilead feels lucky. I don't day trade but did learn how to trade on my own. I did loose money at first but now I kill it because I knew that I would if I stuck with it. It takes time. While some of you are thrilled with a ten or twenty percent yearly return, I would be surprised if I didn't make that in a month. Up almost thirty percent today and will probably close out by end of the day. So rather than taking the time to criticize Gilead, why not put that time into learning to do what he's done.

When you say "Up almost thirty percent today" you mean on that particular trade, right?

Right. Just today on the money in that trade so not on account because some money was in cash. I think I made about four or five percent yesterday in the same trade. If you believe the people that tell you it can't be done then they will probably be right.

So how much are you making per year trading as a percentage of your total portfolio?

waltworks

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #88 on: October 05, 2016, 08:08:12 AM »
Wisdom will make the decision very obvious.

-W

The Beacon

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #89 on: October 08, 2016, 09:35:00 AM »
For most people, active trading is not worth it because it will take a tremendous amount effort to become consistently reliable.  That requires passion and hard work.  Lack of either one will kill it.

However, if you love trading even if there is no money involved, you might make it.   The field has extremely high barrier of entry.  As a retail trader, you are against machines that do not have any emotions.   

« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 10:05:54 AM by Sharpy »

steveo

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #90 on: October 08, 2016, 03:33:51 PM »
For most people, active trading is not worth it because it will take a tremendous amount effort to become consistently reliable.  That requires passion and hard work.  Lack of either one will kill it.

However, if you love trading even if there is no money involved, you might make it.   The field has extremely high barrier of entry.  As a retail trader, you are against machines that do not have any emotions.   

I think the main thing to mention is that you need luck. You are trying to predict the future. To add to that most people fail. It's basically like gambling with the edge against you. What rational person would do that ?

waltworks

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #91 on: October 08, 2016, 06:44:07 PM »
However, if you love trading even if there is no money involved, you might make it.   The field has extremely high barrier of entry.  As a retail trader, you are against machines that do not have any emotions.   

If you love it and are good at it, you should get a job doing it where you get 2/20, not trade your own money. Hell, you can do that even if you're not good at it at all!

If you're making a client millions of dollars (because the client has 10s or 100s of millions) you'll get way wealthier on fees than you would even if you were just killing it with your own $10k (or whatever not-FIRE amount). And there's zero risk, unlike trading your own money...

Actually, you'll get wealthy pretty fast on fees even if you lose money.

So when people start talking about how if you're smart and good you can win at day trading, I have to wonder how smart they can be if they're not working as traders already and making money the safe AND fast way.

-W

eddy20

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #92 on: October 10, 2016, 05:55:32 PM »
Interesting subject; I keep thinking about a little day trading and my wife says "NO"! i traded before the tech bubble because I love the leverage of options; trade out of the money leaps or puts and if you GUESS correctly you will make money. But day trading is way to stressful and a zero sum game; eventually unless you GUESS correctly you will loose money. Just my .02 and worth every penny of it; just like free advise you get what you pay fore.

BTDretire

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #93 on: October 13, 2016, 07:39:09 PM »
I have a friend that day traded. He lost money, he now thinks the market is rigged and will not put money in the stock market.
 He has lost well over $500,000 in the last 6 years, because his money was in a bank, instead of VTSAX.

Rubic

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #94 on: October 14, 2016, 05:32:03 AM »
I have a friend that day traded. He lost money, he now thinks the market is rigged and will not put money in the stock market.

I hear these stories a lot.  The kind of story I never seem to hear:

"I had a friend who once put his entire savings in a Vanguard Total Market
index fund 20 years ago.  Lost it all, every penny."


LiquidLen

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #95 on: October 14, 2016, 09:07:02 AM »
I work for a company that does compliance for investment banks. From what I see, every type of market manipulation we secure against mainly protects day traders. I'll give you an example:
Let's say I want to manipulate a security's price to be lower, and you just bought it. Let's say I manage to manipulate it to be 2% less than it was when you bought it. you'd likely sell it at a loss and lose money on the sale.
Let's say you have had the same security for 10 years now and it has already increased its price by 100%. I managed to do the same type of manipulation and decreased the price by 2%. you're not selling it at an optimal price, but this 2% decrease from the new price is not going to harm you much.
If I get caught I face a hefty fine, but you don't get your money back.
This is only one scenario where someone manipulated the market for his advantage, but there are an endless number of scenarios where you didn't manage to predict the right outcome. I love all the different layers (like running averages) you can add on these market graphs. they make you feel like you understand the market and have more control than you actually have.
I met a few people who claimed that at one time they managed to predict the market pretty well using them and make a good profit, never met someone who became rich doing that and met a few people who became poor.

steveo

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #96 on: October 14, 2016, 05:17:33 PM »
I have a friend that day traded. He lost money, he now thinks the market is rigged and will not put money in the stock market.

I hear these stories a lot.  The kind of story I never seem to hear:

"I had a friend who once put his entire savings in a Vanguard Total Market
index fund 20 years ago.  Lost it all, every penny."


This puts it into perspective doesn't it.

MoonLiteNite

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #97 on: October 15, 2016, 01:56:58 AM »
I have a friend that day traded. He lost money, he now thinks the market is rigged and will not put money in the stock market.

I hear these stories a lot.  The kind of story I never seem to hear:

"I had a friend who once put his entire savings in a Vanguard Total Market
index fund 20 years ago.  Lost it all, every penny."


This puts it into perspective doesn't it.

Problem is, when you day trade you DON'T put all your money into one trade. That is how the stupid friend lost all of his money. You generally want to day trade with 2-5% of your total account.
That way, if you can lose 100% of your money week after week and still be OK.
Smart day traders look for trades where they have at worst 2:1 odds, so even if they are right only 40% of the time on their trades, they still come out ahead.

Now the better of a TA reader you are, the most often you win and the more often you get more money than you could lose

steveo

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #98 on: October 15, 2016, 05:13:56 AM »
I have a friend that day traded. He lost money, he now thinks the market is rigged and will not put money in the stock market.

I hear these stories a lot.  The kind of story I never seem to hear:

"I had a friend who once put his entire savings in a Vanguard Total Market
index fund 20 years ago.  Lost it all, every penny."


This puts it into perspective doesn't it.

Problem is, when you day trade you DON'T put all your money into one trade. That is how the stupid friend lost all of his money. You generally want to day trade with 2-5% of your total account.
That way, if you can lose 100% of your money week after week and still be OK.
Smart day traders look for trades where they have at worst 2:1 odds, so even if they are right only 40% of the time on their trades, they still come out ahead.

Now the better of a TA reader you are, the most often you win and the more often you get more money than you could lose

I've traded but not day traded. I believe though the concept is still exactly the same but probably more likely to fail if you are a day trader. The shorter your time period the lower your chances of winning.

All this talk regarding lines on a chart I've heard before. I've heard traders state this who don't make money. I also have never seen the applicability when I trade with my own money. I don't believe 99% of the stuff that people state about trading.

torbisen

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Re: Is Day Trading Worth It?
« Reply #99 on: October 15, 2016, 10:39:36 AM »
Hey everyone.  I'm curious if anyone here has had any experience day trading?  And if so, what qualifications or requirements do you need to start?  ( i.e., schooling, trading platforms and software, starting funds, certifications, etc?)

I'm actively interested in running a compounding interest experiment, though it may seem volatile to others, but I figured what the hell, I might as well try.  We've all seen that article that asks "What to do with $1000 on hand?", and granted there is a lot you can do with that.  I've also heard the compounding interest story since I was a little kid: "Choose one option: $1000 a day for 31 days, or you get a penny which doubles in amount every day after that until the 31st day.  Which would you choose?  Well the penny, because it would be $10 million on a 100% return."

Doing the math on something more feasible, if you started with the 13th day, which would be about $1500 (a reasonable investment amount), and were able to get a 25-50% return (yes, pretty high and possibly unachievable) just 13-18 times, you could have a portfolio worth close to a million dollars. 

I am from Norway, so i might misunderstand your text slightly, but my suggestion is this:

I have for many years (about 20) followed a magazine called "Dine Penger" or "your Money" in American language. Its a magazine with a lot of economical tips for normal people. They give a monthly stock tips, where they always have 8 stocks in their portifolio, shifting out 2-4 stocks every month.
Technically to get the accumulated interest they have, they rebalance the portfolio every month, something you would not do because you would have to buy and sell small amount of each share every month to do it, so your result would be slightly different, not necessary worse though because the winners run higher do to the accumulated interest than the losers run low typically and mathematically.
The point is that since 1987 they have made 24% annual return in average. The 100000,- they started with has today accumulated to 66000000,-  This is with no taxes or fees included. Typically if you run around 10000$ on each stock you would end up paying approx 0,5% of your portfolio value pr year in trading fee.
The other problem is that they give the tip on an evening and you have to buy the next day. The price might not be the same.
I checked this for an two years period and in average you had to pay 0,9% more and got around 0,3% less for the ones you sold on the closure price of the stock on the day after. It means around a 5% loss on your portfolio yearly for this tendency. I also statistically checked this by doing standard deviation and i dont know the american word for this but maybe standard failure.
This found that the 66 trades (over two years) I was researching gave me the results that it was a 95% probability that the accumulated portfolio loss due to this tendency would place itself between 2%-10% yearly, with the before mentioned average for the two years I investigated placed itself on 5% loss.
This means that if you did this yourself, you would expect to get not 23% but around 16% or so over a long period annually. That is a lot more than the index of the norwegian stock exchange which is around 7-8% i think.
I have tried this myself for a short period of 5months and then got 14% that was way more than the index`s 9% in the period.

Is this feasible?  Yes, but not unless I do a lot of research and understand the risks, true costs per trades, etc.

I figured I'd rather try then not, so to everyone here, what's your advice (positive advice) and knowledge? I'm happy to hear everyone's thoughts on the challenge.