Author Topic: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?  (Read 6423 times)

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:52:31 PM »
Calling all rebels and market timers I.e greedy buggers willing to get badly caught if wrong and impossible to listen too if they get it right.

Anyone gonna go to cash or partial cash at moment?

Baz

bbqbonelesswing

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 314
  • Age: 28
  • Location: Philly
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 02:57:30 PM »
Calling all rebels and market timers I.e greedy buggers willing to get badly caught if wrong and impossible to listen too if they get it right.

Anyone gonna go to cash or partial cash at moment?

Baz

No.

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2161
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 03:11:29 PM »
Calling all rebels and market timers I.e greedy buggers willing to get badly caught if wrong and impossible to listen too if they get it right.

Anyone gonna go to cash or partial cash at moment?

Baz

Not planning on it.  I've seen way too many people get burned with the way the market is behaving with the CV pandemic to think that I know anything.  Yes, it feels like it's downward from here, but it also felt that way at about S&P 2,650 .  I'm in it for the long haul.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5615
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 04:56:13 PM »
I have very small positions in SQQQ and FNGD and a few VIX calls.

Yes, I'm betting that the market (including tech companies) will decrease from here until January.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2020, 05:10:08 PM »
Anyone gonna go to cash or partial cash at moment?

I have several years of spending in cash and bonds. I had them a while and have no plans to change based on what the market does. I'll be rebalancing with the upcoming Q3 dividends and buying more stocks.

Malcat

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5952
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2020, 04:34:45 AM »
No, why on earth would I do that?

Aren't there far more sophisticated strategies for harnessing market drops? And really, unless the drop is astronomical, and you time it exactly right, then aren't the potential gains really limited?

I thought the whole point of doing something with a high risk of failure, that's difficult to pull off was to have a massive upside?

sixwings

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 251
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2020, 08:08:54 AM »
No, why on earth would I do that?

Aren't there far more sophisticated strategies for harnessing market drops? And really, unless the drop is astronomical, and you time it exactly right, then aren't the potential gains really limited?

I thought the whole point of doing something with a high risk of failure, that's difficult to pull off was to have a massive upside?

well, to be fair, the upside can be massive if you do it perfectly, which is more about luck than anything else.

With Covid, if you sold S&P500 at the peak right before the covid drop, and you bought back in the bottom around 2300, that's a gain of 42% in 6 months. But the luck required to time that right would be insane. I'm sure some people did but most wouldnt have. The reason why potential gains are really limited is because very few people time it perfectly so it becomes more like 10%.

Malcat

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5952
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2020, 08:22:21 AM »
No, why on earth would I do that?

Aren't there far more sophisticated strategies for harnessing market drops? And really, unless the drop is astronomical, and you time it exactly right, then aren't the potential gains really limited?

I thought the whole point of doing something with a high risk of failure, that's difficult to pull off was to have a massive upside?

well, to be fair, the upside can be massive if you do it perfectly, which is more about luck than anything else.

With Covid, if you sold S&P500 at the peak right before the covid drop, and you bought back in the bottom around 2300, that's a gain of 42% in 6 months. But the luck required to time that right would be insane. I'm sure some people did but most wouldnt have. The reason why potential gains are really limited is because very few people time it perfectly so it becomes more like 10%.

IDK, 42% doesn't seem like that huge an upside to me compared to the risk of failure. It won't result in that huge a difference unless you have a huge sum of money as it is, and if you do, then there are probably more lucrative strategies for capitalizing on major market drops.

That's just my personal perspective.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4929
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2020, 08:30:33 AM »

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2020, 03:12:58 PM »
Interesting example Walt. Ta

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2020, 03:16:01 PM »
The reason why potential gains are really limited is because very few people time it perfectly so it becomes more like 10%.

or -10%.

v8rx7guy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2161
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Bellingham, WA
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2020, 03:16:07 PM »
I feel as though @RWD needs to visit this thread and add it to their list...

RWD

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4721
  • Location: Mississippi
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2020, 04:31:15 PM »
I feel as though @RWD needs to visit this thread and add it to their list...
I have visited and deemed this thread slightly out of scope for my list to capture.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4929
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2020, 08:14:59 PM »
No hair splitting needed, BB. OP asked if anyone is going to cash or partially to cash.

-W

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2131
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2020, 02:52:22 AM »
No hair splitting needed, BB. OP asked if anyone is going to cash or partially to cash.

-W

Youíre right Walt. To paraphrase Roseanna Danna, Never mind. :-)

wenchsenior

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2914
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2020, 08:40:00 AM »
No.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2020, 03:24:57 PM »
Would it be fair to say any sort of day trading is essentially market timing to a degree.

Iím mostly index Funds buy and hold. BuT I do fancy selling my Tesla at next top to gamble thereís a huge dip coming to dollar point back in...Letís see...

Donít over react folks.....Iím not talking bout killing anyone ....lol

Is there a safe word for market timing that does cause a violent reaction? Lol

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2131
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2020, 03:35:26 PM »
Would it be fair to say any sort of day trading is essentially market timing to a degree.

Iím mostly index Funds buy and hold. BuT I do fancy selling my Tesla at next top to gamble thereís a huge dip coming to dollar point back in...Letís see...

Donít over react folks.....Iím not talking bout killing anyone ....lol

Is there a safe word for market timing that does cause a violent reaction? Lol

Why not just call it market timing and own it? Itís not like itís a felony or anything. The definition of market timing varies on whom you ask. To me itís a largely worthless term. I BTFDíd on Monday and picked up some more stock. I guess Iím a market timer because I bought it off of any set schedule. OK. Thatís nice. Iíll it to my long list of sins, quirks, and antisocial behaviors.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2020, 03:40:55 PM »
Would it be fair to say any sort of day trading is essentially market timing to a degree.

Iím mostly index Funds buy and hold. BuT I do fancy selling my Tesla at next top to gamble thereís a huge dip coming to dollar point back in...Letís see...

Donít over react folks.....Iím not talking bout killing anyone ....lol

Is there a safe word for market timing that does cause a violent reaction? Lol

Why not just call it market timing and own it? Itís not like itís a felony or anything. The definition of market timing varies on whom you ask. To me itís a largely worthless term. I BTFDíd on Monday and picked up some more stock. I guess Iím a market timer because I bought it off of any set schedule. OK. Thatís nice. Iíll it to my long list of sins, quirks, and antisocial behaviors.

Yeah dude...a flutter can be a bit of fun....as long as not too high risk

Malcat

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5952
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2020, 04:28:16 PM »
Would it be fair to say any sort of day trading is essentially market timing to a degree.

Iím mostly index Funds buy and hold. BuT I do fancy selling my Tesla at next top to gamble thereís a huge dip coming to dollar point back in...Letís see...

Donít over react folks.....Iím not talking bout killing anyone ....lol

Is there a safe word for market timing that does cause a violent reaction? Lol

Go ahead and market time.
The thing people here typically react to is when people market time and try to claim they're not market timing.

Own it and don't worry what anyone says or thinks.
We're strangers on the internet.

geekette

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2125
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2020, 04:58:19 PM »
In a way we're market timing.  DH turns 59.5 in late November, so we recently sold the 30k of funds we plan to withdraw from his IRA this year and are leaving the cash in his IRA until early December for the penalty free withdrawal.  The rest, though, is staying put.  Seems prudent. 

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17885
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2020, 05:28:53 PM »
Nope.

Heckler

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1370
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2020, 10:31:18 PM »
In a way we're market timing.  DH turns 59.5 in late November, so we recently sold the 30k of funds we plan to withdraw from his IRA this year and are leaving the cash in his IRA until early December for the penalty free withdrawal.  The rest, though, is staying put.  Seems prudent.

no, you're not.  that's called not having near term cash invested and at risk of fluctuation (up or down).

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2020, 03:25:09 PM »
Too late by looks of it....itís heading south!

BikeFanatic

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 639
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2020, 03:30:31 PM »
In preparation for imminent Retirement I did sell 70 percent of my stocks mostly in tax advantage accounts. I know it is timing, but I am also planning on rebalancing just have to figure out what my risk tolerance is. I was in mostly stocks and cash heavy, then the market tanked and I was no longer FI.
Once they bounced back I was FI again. We do plan on going back in after the election and I could see us DCA in toa 60 /40 allocation . Was  A panick move for sure.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #25 on: September 24, 2020, 03:39:33 PM »
In preparation for imminent Retirement I did sell 70 percent of my stocks mostly in tax advantage accounts. I know it is timing, but I am also planning on rebalancing just have to figure out what my risk tolerance is. I was in mostly stocks and cash heavy, then the market tanked and I was no longer FI.
Once they bounced back I was FI again. We do plan on going back in after the election and I could see us DCA in toa 60 /40 allocation . Was  A panick move for sure.

Sound more like common sense....I think the detested term Ďmarket timingí refers more to cashing out near a top and waiting for a bottom....which is missed at times.

Regret posting now lol

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #26 on: September 24, 2020, 03:44:20 PM »
I was in mostly stocks and cash heavy, then the market tanked and I was no longer FI.

I went through the FI!, COVID!, not FI!....FI again! Process this year and FIREd in May so I feel your pain on the issue.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #27 on: September 25, 2020, 09:07:15 AM »
I was in mostly stocks and cash heavy, then the market tanked and I was no longer FI.

I went through the FI!, COVID!, not FI!....FI again! Process this year and FIREd in May so I feel your pain on the issue.

even been at  that point is cool...... not a bad complaint!

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #28 on: September 25, 2020, 09:13:13 AM »
even been at  that point is cool...... not a bad complaint!

Definitely. While nobody could have accurately predicted COVID happening in 2020 any competent FIRE plan has to include contingencies for major market crashes just before or soon after FIRE. So there should not be any panicking. It should just be a matter or X happened so I'll follow protocol Y in my FIRE plan.

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3759
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2020, 09:24:29 AM »
Anyone gonna go to cash or partial cash at moment?
Market timing can also be optimistic / bullish, like having a higher allocation to equities than normal.

BikeFanatic

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 639
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2020, 09:48:59 AM »
I though I was going to get the sh@# kicked out of me for admitting to selling. Thanks for the support.
I am still concerned about Covid in other ways also like will I be able to sell my home, seems the answer is yes, but we shall see, and initially selling of the home was my plan and dip into that cash if the market tanks. However with covid I felt even my house could drop so as not wanting to sell or not being able to sell ( like in 2008).

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4929
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2020, 11:11:20 AM »
I think what people forget is that it's dead easy to sell at an all time high. There are opportunities to do it all the time, in the history of the market.

The problem is buying back in cheaper than you sold. That's fairly rare, and *really* rare if you're angling for some kind of big drop. And you're losing money to inflation and not earning dividends the whole time, too.

So @BikeFanatic, there's nothing wrong with selling. But you should be determining your desired AA/risk tolerance/goals NOW and getting back in to whatever extent works for you. Sitting in cash is a terrible idea unless you have a VERY specific plan - and even then, it's often dumb. I have $100k sitting around I thought I'd be using for a rental property after Covid crashed house prices... whoops.

-W

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2020, 11:41:31 AM »
Ive stopped my monthly purchase of vusa/vwrl at the moment, right or wrong, I just cant do it.....

growing pandemic that still only spread across a smallish pertion of the globe and increasing? long way to go. 

Economy flooded with QE to combat a pending finanical distaster...helicopter money.....general businessnes struggling.....winter flu season ahead.....interest rate at bottom.....

I couuld be wrong, but im holding for a while to see what happenings.  Im aware that over the long term period dollar point average approach smooths out the returns anyway....

anyone else thinking the same?

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4929
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2020, 11:43:48 AM »
Man, I was a self-aware individual during the cold war, when we were worried the Russkies were going to nuke us.

None of what you've mentioned scares me.

If QE is a worry... jeesus, you should be investing every penny you have. If we get bigtime inflation your cash pile is going to be worthless.

-W

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #34 on: September 25, 2020, 01:30:27 PM »
yeah inflation is a def a possiblity...got rid of the mortage a while back which helps.  Im old enough to recall interest rates the late 70s i.e. 14-15% on mortgages here in ireland.

If you follow dalio, its sounds like the apolcalyse is coming...no matter what anyone says, hes hard to ignore......its possible to pick holes in him, but total discount him? think not....

Im just trying to be as prudent as possible and learn here.....im fairly new to this so researching all the time.

this place is about the best source of knowledge ive found.....as long as you dont discuss M..a..k.t T....m.g...

lol

MARKET TIMINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG....there I said it...phew i feel better now......


Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #35 on: September 25, 2020, 01:44:31 PM »
If you follow dalio, its sounds like the apolcalyse is coming...no matter what anyone says, hes hard to ignore......its possible to pick holes in him, but total discount him? think not....

If you follow Dalio you know Top is In!

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #36 on: September 25, 2020, 02:01:16 PM »
If you follow dalio, its sounds like the apolcalyse is coming...no matter what anyone says, hes hard to ignore......its possible to pick holes in him, but total discount him? think not....

If you follow Dalio you know Top is In!

or top was in?!

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #37 on: September 25, 2020, 04:37:38 PM »
or top was in?!

The Top will Be In again!

I'm excited to get Q3 dividends in my investment account soon so I can buy more stocks. :-)

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4929
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #38 on: September 25, 2020, 06:09:22 PM »
yeah inflation is a def a possiblity...got rid of the mortage a while back which helps.  Im old enough to recall interest rates the late 70s i.e. 14-15% on mortgages here in ireland.

I don't know what mortgage rates are like in Ireland right now, but a low rate mortgage is one of the best protections you can have against inflation. Paying it off massively increases your risk.

-W

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17885
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #39 on: September 26, 2020, 06:36:14 PM »
yeah inflation is a def a possiblity...got rid of the mortage a while back which helps.  Im old enough to recall interest rates the late 70s i.e. 14-15% on mortgages here in ireland.

I don't know what mortgage rates are like in Ireland right now, but a low rate mortgage is one of the best protections you can have against inflation. Paying it off massively increases your risk.

-W

Wouldn't owning a home be a pretty good protection against inflation too?  As inflation rises, your home is worth more.  Why does paying off your mortgage massively increase risk?

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #40 on: September 26, 2020, 06:39:22 PM »
I don't know what mortgage rates are like in Ireland right now, but a low rate mortgage is one of the best protections you can have against inflation. Paying it off massively increases your risk.

-W

Keep in mind 30 year low fixed rate mortgages are US gov't support program not available to the rest of the world. Most of the rest of us can only fix mortgage rates for short periods like 5 years. Only marginally useful against inflation since rates will "jump" to catch up with what's going on with interest rates/inflation every renewal period.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17885
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #41 on: September 26, 2020, 06:50:18 PM »
I don't know what mortgage rates are like in Ireland right now, but a low rate mortgage is one of the best protections you can have against inflation. Paying it off massively increases your risk.

-W

Keep in mind 30 year low fixed rate mortgages are US gov't support program not available to the rest of the world. Most of the rest of us can only fix mortgage rates for short periods like 5 years. Only marginally useful against inflation since rates will "jump" to catch up with what's going on with interest rates/inflation every renewal period.

I sometimes forget how weird the US is about homeownership and mortgages.

Retire-Canada

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7898
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #42 on: September 26, 2020, 07:06:11 PM »
I sometimes forget how weird the US is about homeownership and mortgages.

You guys are super lucky that way. If I could get a fixed rate 30 year mortgage at a low rate I'd be all over it. That said I have totally lucked out on buying a house when variable rate mortgages [what I always get] have been right around 1.5-2.5% for 10-15 years. So no real complaints, but I appreciate that's just luck/great timing.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4929
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #43 on: September 26, 2020, 07:24:02 PM »
yeah inflation is a def a possiblity...got rid of the mortage a while back which helps.  Im old enough to recall interest rates the late 70s i.e. 14-15% on mortgages here in ireland.

I don't know what mortgage rates are like in Ireland right now, but a low rate mortgage is one of the best protections you can have against inflation. Paying it off massively increases your risk.

-W

Wouldn't owning a home be a pretty good protection against inflation too?  As inflation rises, your home is worth more.  Why does paying off your mortgage massively increase risk?

You can go play with it in CfireSIM, but owning a house outright (which still has carrying costs like taxes/maintenance that will track inflation) is a major FIRE failure liability.

Essentially this is because you gain the ability (right now) to fix a large portion of your housing cost at a rate below the historic rate of inflation (in the US, anyway). It is literally free money, and also serves as a hedge against inflation (which will wipe out cash or bonds in a portfolio)

-W

frugaldrummer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 840
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #44 on: September 27, 2020, 02:03:43 AM »
Background: Iím nearing retirement (not early, alas, thanks to my ex-husbands midlife crisis). Iíve never so much as touched my retirement accounts before this year.

As a medical professional with an extensive molecular biology background, I put half my retirement account into cash before the drop because of Covid, and came out ahead.

Iím now considering going to cash sometime before the election and waiting to see how things shake out. Markets hate uncertainty and itís likely to take some time for all the ballots to be counted. Considering that we will likely be in a third wave of Covid at the same time, Iím not expecting things to look good. ďWar gameĒ type evaluations of the election have predicted riots in the streets in every scenario except for Biden winning by a large margin (which I doubt will happen). A

I fully understand that by doing so, I might miss out on some run up in the market. Thatís traditionally the argument against market timing - that most gains are made in relatively few days out of the year. I get it. But given that Iím so close to retirement, the risk of a huge drop that doesnít make a v-shaped recovery would have a huge negative impact, versus the opportunity to buy back in after a drop could significantly improve my retirement. These are much bigger impacts than the worst case scenario of missing out on a short term run up in stocks.

I feel that the coming likely disruption is more predictable than the typical ďthe market is overvaluedĒ kind of market timing - weíve all seen overvalued markets continue to grow for years past that point before the bubble pops.

The real question to me is when to get out. Now? Right before the election? Dollar cost average my way out over the next month?

(Btw I expect some kind of bump when a vaccine is released but that is not likely before the election despite Trumpís bluster. Itís a BARE MINIMUM to require two months follow up after the second injection. )

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17885
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #45 on: September 27, 2020, 09:46:22 AM »
yeah inflation is a def a possiblity...got rid of the mortage a while back which helps.  Im old enough to recall interest rates the late 70s i.e. 14-15% on mortgages here in ireland.

I don't know what mortgage rates are like in Ireland right now, but a low rate mortgage is one of the best protections you can have against inflation. Paying it off massively increases your risk.

-W

Wouldn't owning a home be a pretty good protection against inflation too?  As inflation rises, your home is worth more.  Why does paying off your mortgage massively increase risk?

You can go play with it in CfireSIM, but owning a house outright (which still has carrying costs like taxes/maintenance that will track inflation) is a major FIRE failure liability.

Essentially this is because you gain the ability (right now) to fix a large portion of your housineg cost at a rate below the historic rate of inflation (in the US, anyway). It is literally free money, and also serves as a hedge against inflation (which will wipe out cash or bonds in a portfolio)

-W

Not sure I follow your logic on the first bit.  I seem to remember having to pay taxes and maintenance before paying off our mortgage.  You're paying them in both scenarios aren't you?

Agreed, if you can fix a 30 year mortgage below inflation that's a great deal.  As mentioned though, that's a peculiarity of living in the US that many on this forum won't have access to.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4929
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #46 on: September 27, 2020, 10:50:51 AM »
It is a US-specific thing, indeed.

-W

MustacheAndaHalf

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3759
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #47 on: September 27, 2020, 11:28:48 AM »
frugaldrummer - Most people view vaccines as 100% effective, while experts hope for 50% effectiveness.  I expect that large gap to be filled with worse than expected news, unfortunately.  Getting a 95% or higher effectiveness on the first try is wildly optimistic - but if that happens, the news could come out before the election.  (If 50 people get sick, and only 2 of them got the vaccine while 48 got a placebo, that's strong evidence of an effective vaccine despite only 50 people getting sick).  More likely, the vaccines are much weaker and will take longer to show their effectiveness.

frugaldrummer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 840
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #48 on: September 27, 2020, 12:06:28 PM »
A 50% effective vaccine combined with mask wearing and social distancing could get the Ro below 1 and kill the pandemic. However it will take months if not years to immunize enough of the population. But there will probably be irrational exuberance in the markets once a vaccine is announced anyway.

bthewalls

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 316
  • Location: ireland/northern ireland
  • gods own prototype....
Re: Is anyone gonna try and time the market soon?
« Reply #49 on: September 27, 2020, 12:54:01 PM »
yeah inflation is a def a possiblity...got rid of the mortage a while back which helps.  Im old enough to recall interest rates the late 70s i.e. 14-15% on mortgages here in ireland.

I don't know what mortgage rates are like in Ireland right now, but a low rate mortgage is one of the best protections you can have against inflation. Paying it off massively increases your risk.

-W

hey walt,
irish rates same as eu (eu central bank set it anyway).

Im all but paid off, and have zero debt, no credit card, etc.  right or wrong, I just wanted rid of the debt and went for it.

was planning on sellign the house this year and putting 250k into the market, but housing market has turned here so will work on for another 10 years.

Baz