Author Topic: Is anybody looking at fixed annuities right now?  (Read 1038 times)

Omy

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Is anybody looking at fixed annuities right now?
« on: November 01, 2022, 06:36:26 AM »
I realize that "annuity" can be a dirty word around here, but I'm looking at one to use as a CD with tax deferred interest.

Right now there are 3 to 7 year annuities that are giving over 5% interest. The interest is tax deferred until you take money out. No limits on how much you can invest.

There is a 10% penalty if you withdraw prior to age 59.5, so it's probably more advantageous to those of us who are "of a certain age".

There are surrender charges if you remove large amounts prior to the end of the term, but (at least on the ones I'm looking at) I could surrender after year 2 and still preserve my initial premium if I needed the cash for something else.

And if you don't want to pay taxes on the interest at the end of the term, you can do a 1035 exchange into another annuity.

I doubt I'll ever use the feature where I collect income for the rest of my life, but instead will use it as a safe place to park cash with higher rates and tax deferred interest.

Anybody else doing this? What am I missing?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is anybody looking at fixed annuities right now?
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2022, 11:34:38 AM »
Excellent question. No, I had not been looking at annuities. For my adult lifetime so far, annuities=bad but I don't know if that's the case any longer.

I pulled up a quick quote on immediateannuities.com and it looks like I (45 y/o M) could get 5.87% payouts on an annuity that starts 2 years from now and offers my beneficiaries 10 years of payments after my death. If I start the cashflows in 5 years the payout ratio goes up to 6.95%!

These kind of returns could shake up some assumptions about the Safe Withdraw Rate, and it is likely they'll only go higher by next year. First, it means if I could maintain spending discipline and not increase my costs each year 1:1 with inflation (e.g. own my home, have solar panels, not buy and discard lots of shite), I could in theory retire in today's world of uncertainty with a WR near 5%. Second, I could lock in a percentage of my future income and thereby reduce my vulnerability to SORR. Annuities could be more useful than long-duration corporate bonds in the sense that I will never have to reinvest - and potentially receive lower rates.   

The downside to an annuity-based portfolio is that your return is fixed in nominal terms. If the future is high inflation, anything fixed income would be dead weight. E.g. your monthly payments which seem impressive now could be worth half as much purchasing power in 5 years. So you'd want to balance the risks of market volatility (stocks) against the risks of inflation (annuities, long-duration bonds). In theory, there is an optimal mixture that would carry a person through either the great depression or the great stagflation.

In terms of a parking lot for cash, annuities seem like a rather illiquid choice, as far as I can tell. It's hard to argue with 4.6% one year treasuries that can be bought and sold with ease.

dividendman

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Re: Is anybody looking at fixed annuities right now?
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2022, 10:07:07 AM »
It seems like you need to be good at interest rate timing to make this work.

What I don't get is why you wouldn't just buy long term treasuries with a 6% yield (if they ever get there) vs an annuity where you have to pay a fee?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is anybody looking at fixed annuities right now?
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2022, 11:40:47 AM »
It seems like you need to be good at interest rate timing to make this work.

What I don't get is why you wouldn't just buy long term treasuries with a 6% yield (if they ever get there) vs an annuity where you have to pay a fee?
A 30y treasury yielded 4.14% as of yesterday, compared to the 5+% payout on annuities for a 45y/o and a 7%+ payout for a 65y/o. That's partially the difference between getting your principal back at the end of the term with the treasury, vs. getting your principal paid back as part of the payments with the annuity. The treasury also represents a risk that you retire and then in 10, 20, or 30 years your treasury matures and at that time you have to reinvest in a 1.5% yield environment like 2020. And maybe by that time your other accounts are depleted and you really need some cash flow? That's the case for the annuity.

I think both "risk free" alternatives are competitive, and should ideally be thought about as complimentary parts of a diverse portfolio where each part serves a different function.

dividendman

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Re: Is anybody looking at fixed annuities right now?
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2022, 12:25:39 PM »
It seems like you need to be good at interest rate timing to make this work.

What I don't get is why you wouldn't just buy long term treasuries with a 6% yield (if they ever get there) vs an annuity where you have to pay a fee?
A 30y treasury yielded 4.14% as of yesterday, compared to the 5+% payout on annuities for a 45y/o and a 7%+ payout for a 65y/o. That's partially the difference between getting your principal back at the end of the term with the treasury, vs. getting your principal paid back as part of the payments with the annuity. The treasury also represents a risk that you retire and then in 10, 20, or 30 years your treasury matures and at that time you have to reinvest in a 1.5% yield environment like 2020. And maybe by that time your other accounts are depleted and you really need some cash flow? That's the case for the annuity.

I think both "risk free" alternatives are competitive, and should ideally be thought about as complimentary parts of a diverse portfolio where each part serves a different function.

Oh yeah, that makes sense. I guess I equated 30 years as the same as "lifetime" which isn't correct especially for early retirees.

 

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