How do you deal with your own stupid choices?

[johnsonmez]

QQQ returned 18%/yr SPY 13%/yr since I started investing a bit more than a decade ago.

Instead of stocks, I bought land (not American). My ROI is ~10%/yr. I was below 5%/yr in 2021 due to crisis. It can reach 13% if they insist on lowering rates, like in 2022. It can reach 15-17% if there is a local boom in construction.

If I want a good return, I am stuck in land. Hope is my strategy... I am hoping for a boom in local construction and increased liquidity aka lower rates.

If I bought tech, I was gonna be comfortably retired now. Instead I have less return, more stress.

If there's a new crisis, that construction boom is gonna delay for 5 years.

There's no guarantee of low rates returning.

[Fru-Gal]

Why not buy both? Diversify starting now.

[johnsonmez]

Why not buy both? Diversify starting now.

Probably not a good time to sell land now. But yeah that's the dream

[GuitarStv]

Why not buy both? Diversify starting now.

Probably not a good time to sell land now. But yeah that's the dream

It sounds like you've made some money on your undeveloped land, but not as much as you hoped for.  Now you're just hanging on because the land you've currently bought could later be worth more.  There doesn't seem to be any solid, current reason to keep hanging on to what you've got right now that would prevent you from selling half to diversify.

[ChpBstrd]

~10%/year is the long term average return of the stock market.

We've just had a few extraordinary years, fueled in part by stimulus, increased national debt, and AI enthusiasm. Valuations rose from the red zone territory to the flashing red zone. None of that was predictable, so no need to beat yourself up.

RE prices are always what someone else is willing to pay, so if you're wishing for a higher return why not just put the property on the market for the higher return price? You might just get it, and this could be a moot point.

[Fru-Gal]

Why not buy both? Diversify starting now.

Probably not a good time to sell land now. But yeah that's the dream

I didn’t mean necessarily sell your land now. Rather, start buying global stock indexes, with whatever extra money you have. Also remember that another source of future passive income is business creation. And the best place to do that now is online. Are there information products you could create and sell? Or some other type of business that you could build?

[BicycleB]

Interesting situation, @johnsonmez.

With the bulk of your portfolio in an illiquid asset, you do have some big choices to make. In that real estate involves local and operational factors as well as influence form broader markets, I don't know how to evaluate your main asset, but you seem uncomfortable with both the illiquidity and the inferior return. Previous posters have made excellent points on both of these.

The return question is "woulda shoulda coulda", with hindsight bias  - it seems you wanted a high return, but guessed the wrong category. In that real estate and stock have relatively similar long term average returns, your initial decision wasn't obviously bad, so don't kick yourself too much. All of us have made mistakes. This isn't obviously a bad one, unless you committed a large amount with little research and followup (in which case the answer is "research more in future, follow up more aggressively and quickly; do better next time, keep working until you succeed").

Maybe the lesson to learn is that if you make one big bet and don't win, the loss is harder to recover from than a smaller bet. So @Fru-Gal's point is well taken: investing in other assets with new savings now is a low risk move that is guaranteed to widen your options. This is a specific example of the general answer that we learn from our choices and begin a new plan. We is the right word - most all of us, certainly me, have done this more than once.

Re what to do with the current holding, posting more details in the real estate forum might get you some helpful ideas. In real estate, obviously a lot depends on specifics. Good luck to you!

[johnsonmez]

~10%/year is the long term average return of the stock market.

We've just had a few extraordinary years, fueled in part by stimulus, increased national debt, and AI enthusiasm. Valuations rose from the red zone territory to the flashing red zone. None of that was predictable, so no need to beat yourself up.

RE prices are always what someone else is willing to pay, so if you're wishing for a higher return why not just put the property on the market for the higher return price? You might just get it, and this could be a moot point.

Since 2012, 13% SPY, 18% QQQ

There are a lot of unsold listings nearby. You might be right tho who, knows.

I'm thinking of marketing this to foreigners because locals would not be able to sell land to foreigners due to culture differences and also language barrier. That would mean more liquidity for my land, I think. Right? This means a higher sale price

Its a pretty good diversification deal, especially now that global order seems to be changing (USD deval, tariffs, multipolarity, general chaos). But idk how to go about it. I guess I'll call some international brokers on Monday but I want to contribute to the sale somehow

I could create some nice presentation and include
- development predictions based on data (historical satellite pics show where development is going, existence of mountains and residential areas are forcing development my way)
- country & city population growth. GDP and industrial output growth (this will be part of industrial zone, that's the investment exit)
- 1000, 100, 30, 10 year history in a way that can help people understand what it means to invest here. Geopolitical advantages, potential risks and their probabilities
- exit numbers based on similar instances nearby but this data is not public and i will get it from lawyers who represent land owners. so buyers would need to find a lawyer to confirm this data is true. I think they can find trustworthy lawyer recommendation from their consulates (should be public)

I guess they can learn about this area from me but buy from someone cheaper, but I guess this would also increase prices here since word gets around. And honestly it would be hard for them to do buy from someone else since locals would double the price if they hear it's a foreigner and there's also a language/culture barrier. What I hate about this place is its hard to find honest people. A ton of people try to scam you, including your OWN lawyers. So I'd think a potential buyer would see their work ethic and refuse to buy from them but who knows?

@BicycleB that's a pretty good overview, thanks, I posted something in "real-estate-and-landlording" but nobody responded since maybe it was too specific.

@Fru-Gal That is true. Do you have a product or business idea suggestion? :)

[BicycleB]

Your situation makes me think of the one lawyer / business guy who I'm tempted to contact in Vietnam, hoping to find a plausible investment.

Why him? He's the only one I know of there, and the country appears to be well positioned for the future trend-wise. How did I hear of him? He has a YouTube channel and gives short videos every week on topics related to living, working and investing in Vietnam.

If you are familiar with the market where you invested and it is opaque to outsiders, with strong underlying prospects but a difficult culture for outsiders to establish trust in, you might be superbly positioned to be a credible source. If you are fluent in local knowledge and also international English, as appears to be the case, you could start a channel that could be:

-a business of its own
-a great lead generator for brokering local services to international clients, or becoming a consultant for outsiders
-an advertising channel for your own property

Here's "my" guy as an example: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/k88lOT3eCLQ

[MustacheAndaHalf]

QQQ returned 18%/yr SPY 13%/yr since I started investing a bit more than a decade ago.

Instead of stocks, I bought land (not American). My ROI is ~10%/yr. I was below 5%/yr in 2021 due to crisis. It can reach 13% if they insist on lowering rates, like in 2022. It can reach 15-17% if there is a local boom in construction.

You're judging yourself by the result, after the fact, but you should judge yourself based on what you knew at the time.  Someone expecting 10%/year returns in the S&P 500 from 2019 to 2021 would be shocked as their assets doubled - but that makes them lucky, not skilled.  Same goes for land speculation.

If you're new to real estate, and specifically buying land, that could be a problem worth considering.  Did you research enough?  Did you collect expert opinions on the local market?

[GilesMM]

10% CAGR is a great return. Be happy with it.  Move on.

[svosavvy]

"How do you deal with your own stupid choices?"

I feel like you have gotten some really great investing style advice here already.  I may be reading this wrong, but, I will take it another way.  Let's be clear you bought something in the past and it is worth more now.  This is not a stupid choice.

Something that may be stupid though is how we value ourselves and our choices.  I think folks on the forum here have had times of past monetary "regrets" on their journey to being laid back and not letting the need or pursuit of money control their lives.  For me and I would guess many others here, we only arrive at this lifestyle ideal after "money" has caused us some type of harm. 

I am lucky in that I had/still have wonderful loving parents who happen to fight like cats and dogs about money.  It was quite shrill growing up.  That led me to the idea many years ago that I would not allow money to rule me like that.  Fat chance, I almost had a mini heart attack when DW threw the 6.99 chips in the shopping cart instead of the 3.99 ones.  Haha.

When I look back at "investing" choices that I'm not happy with over the years, it's always the huge return ones where I only invested a little.  It's not the losses for me.  It's always the nice, but, could have been huge wins.  In 2008 I rolled the dice on some AMBAC stock that was down 90% on its way to zero and got burned.  I turned a dollar into a nickel.  Don't care.  In the same general period I bought some provident energy trust (now part of Pembina pipeline) which has returned so much in dividends, share appreciation, and being taken over that I have basically lost track of the total return.  But you know what.  That's the one that bugs me.  If I had only dumped all of my money into that one I could be on a boat somewhere.  That's when I notice the thought, crumple it up like a useless piece of paper, and throw it in the trash.  I think a mental paper shredder would work also.

You are smart and your choices aren't stupid.  You are most likely a successful very driven person.  Driven people are always too hard on themselves.  What you may be dealing with here is "covet" or "envy."  Be careful with that b/c it can burn like acid.  May want to chew on that for a moment.  Is this a so and so stock investors got a Michael Jordan rookie card out of their pack and I only got a Scottie Pippen (also valuable).  Land is an asset after all.  I hear that they are not making any more of it.  Unless, we colonize Mars.  Thanks for reading.

[FIREin2018]

QQQ returned 18%/yr SPY 13%/yr since I started investing a bit more than a decade ago.

Instead of stocks, I bought land (not American). My ROI is ~10%/yr. I was below 5%/yr in 2021 due to crisis. It can reach 13% if they insist on lowering rates, like in 2022. It can reach 15-17% if there is a local boom in construction.

If I want a good return, I am stuck in land. Hope is my strategy... I am hoping for a boom in local construction and increased liquidity aka lower rates.

If I bought tech, I was gonna be comfortably retired now. Instead I have less return, more stress.

If there's a new crisis, that construction boom is gonna delay for 5 years.

There's no guarantee of low rates returning.

I've lost $250k+ lifetime gambling on the stock market. That tells me i SUCK at timing the stock market. I can make 6 figures in it but don't have the discipline to sell. Greed ALWAYS cost me.
i'm stilling writing off the loses in $3k yearly increments and will till RMDs in my 401k at age 70.
I stopped gambling on the stock market and switched to index funds. Much better mental.

I Fired in 2018 at age 47.
Imagine how much sooner I could have Fired if i stayed in my lane?