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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: Freeyourchains2 on July 02, 2013, 11:18:25 AM

Title: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on July 02, 2013, 11:18:25 AM
www.marketwatch.com/game/investor-alley (http://www.marketwatch.com/game/investor-alley)


Game Name: Investor Alley

Start Date: 07/08/2013, a Monday.
End Date: 10/31/2013, Halloween in America.

Game Link: www.marketwatch.com/game/investor-alley (http://www.marketwatch.com/game/investor-alley)
Join After Started: Enabled

Tagline: The Investor Alley's Virtual Stock picking game.

Portfolio Options
Starting balance for players:   $10000.00
Commission level:   $5.00
Credit interest rate:   3.00%
Debt interest rate for leverage:   6.00%
Minimum stock price:   $0.50
Maximum stock price:   $500000.00
Trade volume Limitaion:   10.00%
Short Selling   Enabled
Margin Selling:   Disabled
Limit Orders:   Enabled
Stop Loss:   Enabled
Partial Shares   Disabled


*If making your account on stockmarket for the first time, it is highly recommended to Use your MMM Forum name as your "First Name", to keep your privacy, and for us to know who you are from these forums.

Disclaimer: This is a fun virtual trading game for the forums! Mostly for entertainment value on MMM's Investor forums. This is for "testing a hypothesis" that anything is possible. Recommended: Achieving Financial Independence before/or if any "risky" investing of "excess" cash is made from fun hobbies you enjoyed after financial independence.

"It's kind of fun to do the impossible."
Walt Disney, As quoted in Animated Architecture (1982) by Derek Walker, p. 10.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on July 02, 2013, 06:59:27 PM
I may sign up for this to give it a try, but two questions:

Why did you make the end date only a few months away? I suggested in the other thread to put the end date quite a ways off, and we can monitor the progress as we go along.

Edit: Missed the comments about this in the other thread, so disregard. I may respond over there.

Also, where/how are you trading that you pay only $5 in commissions? That may be accurate but it seems low to me.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on July 09, 2013, 02:13:44 AM
Okay, the game has started so I have two accounts - "James 15" is my three-fund lazy portfolio account.  "James 15b" is my "buy whatever the hell I feel like" account.

I had some trouble with the web interface for trades - it didn't seem to be bringing up the trade popup window when I used Vanguard fund names. I think I have it going now.

It does not look like FYC's account is in the game though - at least, not the same account that created the game. Is one (or more) of the other accounts yours, FYC?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on July 09, 2013, 07:51:16 AM
Oh I am in the game. I think it initiates only when you trade for the first time. As i just did.

I will make another long term game that goes on indefinitely after this 3 month game. 
Just sampling the investors here to see who are interested. Most seem interested for an on going game.

Curious, do dividends work in this trading game? I couldn't find any options saying they did or did not.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: NumberCruncher on July 09, 2013, 08:58:29 AM
Seems like fun  :)

The only time I gamble is with fake money!
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: prodarwin on July 09, 2013, 10:50:15 AM
I'm in, seems like fun
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on July 17, 2013, 12:49:52 PM
We all are doing pretty well! Buy low, sell high!

Let's all try to reach and exceed $3,000 each in less then 3 months. For a 30% return in a financial quarter!

Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: NumberCruncher on July 17, 2013, 01:46:10 PM
As of this posting, half of us are doing better than the index, half worse (James' lazy three fund portfolio is ranked 4/7)...

pretty much as expected, really.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on July 17, 2013, 06:40:13 PM
My monkeys threw pretty well, too. I think I will have them throw again at about a month after the start. Don't want to tire them out. ;)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on July 18, 2013, 11:08:55 AM
As of this posting, half of us are doing better than the index, half worse (James' lazy three fund portfolio is ranked 4/7)...

pretty much as expected, really.

It'll get a lot more interesting when the index falls again. But that won't happen this quarter, because the fund managers are playing the bull, though the individual stock picking billionaires are starting to sell again gradually.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Undecided on July 18, 2013, 12:19:10 PM
As of this posting, half of us are doing better than the index, half worse (James' lazy three fund portfolio is ranked 4/7)...

pretty much as expected, really.

It'll get a lot more interesting when the index falls again. But that won't happen this quarter, because the fund managers are playing the bull, though the individual stock picking billionaires are starting to sell again gradually.

Does the game let you short the index?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: RaveOregon on July 18, 2013, 02:04:10 PM
You could short an index ETF
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: thedrone on July 18, 2013, 05:23:22 PM
This sounds like fun!  Joining!
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on July 18, 2013, 07:39:04 PM
As of this posting, half of us are doing better than the index, half worse (James' lazy three fund portfolio is ranked 4/7)...

pretty much as expected, really.
On a risk-adjusted basis, you're probably all doing worse.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: workathomedad on July 18, 2013, 10:21:40 PM
BOOM I'm in
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on July 18, 2013, 11:17:54 PM
On a risk-adjusted basis, you're probably all doing worse.

Tell me about it. My monkeys nearly goddamn killed me flinging those darts around. That's why no new stock picks for another month. Doctor's orders.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: NumberCruncher on July 19, 2013, 08:39:29 AM
Oh Geez - dropped from 3rd place to last place in a day.

Yeah, there's a reason I don't do this with actual monies.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: RaveOregon on July 19, 2013, 01:27:23 PM
Kind of funny that this article is the headline on the marketwatch site right now:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-and-hold-wins-again-2013-07-19?dist=countdown



Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on July 31, 2013, 09:10:56 AM
Oh Geez - dropped from 3rd place to last place in a day.

Yeah, there's a reason I don't do this with actual monies.

But you can go from 5th place to 1st place in a day. I am curious to see if everyone also "Buys low and sells High". To lock in their gains, and to buy undevalued stocks once again.

Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 02, 2013, 10:50:43 AM
Great Job Capital Gain earners and to all participants thus far!

Goal: 10%/Month or 120%/Year or 30% in 3 month period. Some people believe "it's impossible"

The Gainers of the Month are:

M.P (13.4% return)
David Nope (10.3% return)
Freeyourchains2 (9.6% return)
workwheniwanttoo mmm(9.4% return)
James 15b (8.5% return)
Rave Oregon (5% return)
James 15 (2.3% return)
prodarwin nothing (0.9% return)

NumberCruncher (-0.5% return)
M.C. (-0.8% return)

Wasn't that easy? It gets easier the more you practice and the better you get with your skill of trading for gains. Once you make a few million, then you can trade entire businesses directly and buy low and sell high then. (Or buy the business low, and collect that business's dividends tax free forever...what Warren Buffet does.)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 02, 2013, 12:09:11 PM
It's easy to make 10% in a month where the market moves 8.5%. Not much skill to it at all.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: RaveOregon on August 02, 2013, 02:28:25 PM
Where are you getting 8.5% from?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 02, 2013, 03:55:52 PM
Whoops, James 15b is the trading account and James 15 is the index. Still, an entirely passive portfolio of stocks alone would do between 5 and 6 percent (link (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1375214400000&chddm=8211&q=MUTF:VTSAX&&ei=kCr8UZikG8OwqQH2Dg)), an exceptionally good month for the markets. My larger point stands - it was an exceptional month driving most of the returns, not the ease of outsmarting the market.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on August 04, 2013, 07:17:13 PM
The "James 15b" account is the one where I chose stocks semi-randomly*. It was ranking pretty highly for a while there but got overtaken towards the end of the month by several other players. I'll probably sell off and buy a new batch of stocks sometime soon to keep it interesting.

*: I will give away some of my secrets for stock-picking success. (Normally I would charge you guys a couple hundred bucks to attend one of my seminars.) When we started I didn't see a FYC account, but there was the Rave Oregon account with five or six trades already, so I thought it might be the same person. So I looked at the stocks R.O. had bought, clicked on the Profile tab of each, and choose one listed in the "Key Competitors" box on the right. Based largely on the name of the company.

AFLAC I bought because they have all the cool duck commercials (nowadays they are duck-and-cat commercials) here in Japan.

Diana Containerships I bought because Diana, that's like, Wonder Woman, and Lynda Carter was hot, hot, hot back when I was too young to really understand why I was watching that show.

Logitech International I bought because of fond memories of buying one of their flightmaster-type joysticks at their "outlet" style store (kind of like a 99c store at forgotten strip mall vibe) in the SF East Bay that confounded my LAN-party friends with my new, bizarre flight patterns when playing Descent.

Pretium Resources I bought... hell, I don't even remember. I think their name looked slightly more "premium" than the others listed.

And Tesla I bought because of the Bogleheads forum thread about whether or not it was a good idea to buy Tesla. Which makes it sound almost like there was a good reason to buy it, so I must hasten to elaborate - that thread had a number of folks who seemed to think that since the Tesla cars were so damn cool, it would be a good idea to buy stock in the company. My reaction to that was, no, that's not a good reason to buy stock in the company. Therefore, in this game, I bought stock in the company.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 05, 2013, 08:20:46 AM
It's easy to make 10% in a month where the market moves 8.5%. Not much skill to it at all.

But to make 120% returns over the course of a year, you'll have to take some "buy low, sell high" action! 120% returns That's something the market never does in a year, but -120% returns is easy for it when it crashes!

So you need some skill of "buying low and selling high" insight! Else your returns will follow the market's swings as they do in funds. Then mostly everyone panics in a market crash and are sometimes financially forced to sell stocks, as most don't have sufficient liquid emergency savings, lose their jobs, and/or will default on their jumbo mortgages.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 05, 2013, 08:26:31 AM
It's never been demonstrated that skill or insight have anything to do with it, though. That's what started this whole circular discussion.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: matchewed on August 05, 2013, 09:18:56 AM
Is -120% actually possible? I wonder what negative money looks like? Does it behave like matter and anti-matter? Is it anti-money? I thought anti-money was stuff.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: KingCoin on August 05, 2013, 01:28:19 PM
Is -120% actually possible? I wonder what negative money looks like? Does it behave like matter and anti-matter? Is it anti-money? I thought anti-money was stuff.

I guess if you're trading with leverage, and your portfolio drops to -120% before the broker is able to stop you out (perhaps you're invested in one company and it "jumps to default"), you could incur a 20% liability vs your original notional. 
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: matchewed on August 05, 2013, 01:37:57 PM
Hmm I didn't consider that. Interesting.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: RaveOregon on August 06, 2013, 03:01:37 PM
I am not FreeYourChains2.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on August 06, 2013, 06:07:59 PM
Yeah, I figured as much when the FYC2 account made some trades and appeared on the ranking.  :-)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 07, 2013, 07:50:26 AM
Why is it so tough to sell high? Is it because we are naturally greedy?

The Market micro swings have been down the last two days, (DOW -1.5% from it's highs). So i will wait until a Market Gain day to sell high.

Match should light up some eWed while we wait and see.
In fact he hasn't joined in this game yet has he?

Just to emphasize, I do enjoy short term trading. I wish the US government would not impede the citizens with such unnecessarily high short term taxes on investors and investments outside of age 60 retirement fund options, and then they just spend every dollar they get a hold of like they don't care about money as though it's not their money, which it isn't.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: smedleyb on August 07, 2013, 09:31:18 AM
Not currently involved, but still licking my bearish wounds from Bernanke's July 10th  speech to some college kids where he reiterated his dovish monetary stance, only to confound the critics who were bracing for some tapering just weeks earlier.  Trading account crushed to the tune of double digits next day as [too] many puts (accumulated just days earlier) were sold for a steep loss.

Alas, trading this market based solely on old school indicators is futile when prices are so easily manipulated by one man's personal opinion of where they should be.  Maybe someday good ole' supply and demand will determine price again.  Until then, this is Ben's market to hold, or lose.  Just don't tell me these markets are "free."  When future historians look for instances exemplifying the disconnect between stocks and the underlying economy, 2009-20013 will jump to the fore.

Active trading is hard and I can't seem to do it well, at least as far as predicting where the major averages are moving next.  Power to those who can. 




   
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 07, 2013, 10:19:17 AM

Active trading is hard and I can't seem to do it well, at least as far as predicting where the major averages are moving next.  Power to those who can. 

Which would be harder? Active Trading or starting up your own business, say presumably after Financial independence, if these two where your fun hobbies. (this is kind of how fun kid science centers sprung up across the nation.)


Or Actively trading on a startup...like Opexa Therapeutics, Inc. (Opexa)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: smedleyb on August 07, 2013, 10:27:49 AM
I would say active stock trading is the much harder of the two, and less rewarding on top of it.  I spend way more time thinking about creating new business than I do gaming stocks.   
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 07, 2013, 12:21:05 PM
I would say active stock trading is the much harder of the two, and less rewarding on top of it.

Absolutely.  Many people have gotten rich from starting a business.

Very few have gotten rich from day trading.

They both, of course, have very high failure rates.

But there's a reason the vast majority of millionaires got that way via owning a business or real estate (those two together vastly outweigh every other method).

But day trading is a nice pipe dream for the lazy person. (Myself included.)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Hugh H on August 08, 2013, 02:40:04 AM
Learn to sell options instead of buying them… you'll do better.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 08, 2013, 06:50:47 AM
Darn, sold Tesla hot stock a day too early..

At this rate, it'll be above $190 by the end of this game...
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 08, 2013, 11:18:58 AM
I learned an interesting lesson about Company Buy back announcements and maniac trading frenzies. (bought high..when i knew better)

Thus i deserve to be ranked last, for now...

Though in another thread, i mentioned Tesla a few months ago, but who would of thought it would jump 500% in price over a few months. (aka hot stock with performing earnings and breaking into a profit for the first time ever).

It's been carrying the latest leaderboards for awhile.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Cecil on August 08, 2013, 01:03:11 PM
I got lucky and gambled on Tesla. That seems to be the way to do well at these kinds of short term competitions - pick a very volatile stock and hope it skyrockets.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 08, 2013, 03:26:20 PM
I got lucky and gambled on Tesla. That seems to be the way to do well at these kinds of short term competitions - pick a very volatile stock and hope it skyrockets.

Indeed!

As I said in the other thread:
Quote
Soooo who can predict which stocks will perform well over the next 3 months, huh?

Sounds fun and educational!

With this sort of short term volititlity, would anyone rational argue that the results of this are more skill than luck?  I.e. at least 51% skill?

Good call on Tesla.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on August 08, 2013, 06:04:00 PM
There really ought to be RED and BLK equities available to purchase that will either double or bankrupt.

I sold my TSLA in my monkeys account, since it has been a month. Yep, would have seen a very different outcome if their earnings had been released a couple days later.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: i_am_the_slime on August 08, 2013, 07:01:18 PM

With this sort of short term volititlity, would anyone rational argue that the results of this are more skill than luck?  I.e. at least 51% skill?

Good call on Tesla.

I think James nailed it with his award winning newsletter submission above.  He clearly did so well because of his skill!
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 09, 2013, 08:31:13 AM
Tesla will keep climbing because of it's innovation and niche in the auto industry markets. (The auto makers couldn't buy out this electric car idea and quench it. Elon Musk is far to rich to let that happen this time.) It's taking a bite out of them, and offering better incentives to luxury and middle class customers for electric cars. Plus the use of electricity in an automobile has a long long forgotten history, that Ford and many others tried hushing back in the 1900's with AC car motors and wireless power and permanent magnet motor ideas. Do your own research on those ones and remember history is made before the patent is issued, though it can be bought out and rewritten after the patent  and never implemented into the world's economics for various "destructive to their business model" reasons. (Howard Johnson U.S. Patent No. 4,151,431 is an interesting one that makes fuel engines obsolete. He hassled for 6 years trying to get that approved. Then Ford bought it and shelved it for good to Ford business reasons.)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 09, 2013, 01:28:09 PM
Tesla will keep climbing because of it's innovation and niche in the auto industry markets. (The auto makers couldn't buy out this electric car idea and quench it. Elon Musk is far to rich to let that happen this time.) It's taking a bite out of them, and offering better incentives to luxury and middle class customers for electric cars. Plus the use of electricity in an automobile has a long long forgotten history, that Ford and many others tried hushing back in the 1900's with AC car motors and wireless power and permanent magnet motor ideas. Do your own research on those ones and remember history is made before the patent is issued, though it can be bought out and rewritten after the patent  and never implemented into the world's economics for various "destructive to their business model" reasons. (Howard Johnson U.S. Patent No. 4,151,431 is an interesting one that makes fuel engines obsolete. He hassled for 6 years trying to get that approved. Then Ford bought it and shelved it for good to Ford business reasons.)

I have a hard time believing conspiracy theories on anything like this, especially related to patents.

Your last example, for instance, is ridiculous. Even if Ford did do so to block that patent from being implemented, it'd buy him like 20 years.

If this was the case, we'd have seen other companies implement it right after the patent protection was up.  Given that they didn't (and they would have, had there been profit in it, given the way capitalism works), the whole story reeks of bullshit.

If it wasn't profitable for them to do 20 years later, do you really think it would have been that profitable for Johnson, or profitable for Ford to buy it and sit on it?

Parents literally disclose EVERYTHING.  And then someone else can just copy it 20 years later.  If and when that happens, maybe you can look to shenanigans happening.  Since it never happened, you can figure that it probably wasn't that great of an idea to begin with.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: matchewed on August 09, 2013, 02:25:06 PM
Tesla will keep climbing because of it's innovation and niche in the auto industry markets. (The auto makers couldn't buy out this electric car idea and quench it. Elon Musk is far to rich to let that happen this time.) It's taking a bite out of them, and offering better incentives to luxury and middle class customers for electric cars. Plus the use of electricity in an automobile has a long long forgotten history, that Ford and many others tried hushing back in the 1900's with AC car motors and wireless power and permanent magnet motor ideas. Do your own research on those ones and remember history is made before the patent is issued, though it can be bought out and rewritten after the patent  and never implemented into the world's economics for various "destructive to their business model" reasons. (Howard Johnson U.S. Patent No. 4,151,431 is an interesting one that makes fuel engines obsolete. He hassled for 6 years trying to get that approved. Then Ford bought it and shelved it for good to Ford business reasons.)

I have a hard time believing conspiracy theories on anything like this, especially related to patents.

Your last example, for instance, is ridiculous. Even if Ford did do so to block that patent from being implemented, it'd buy him like 20 years.

If this was the case, we'd have seen other companies implement it right after the patent protection was up.  Given that they didn't (and they would have, had there been profit in it, given the way capitalism works), the whole story reeks of bullshit.

If it wasn't profitable for them to do 20 years later, do you really think it would have been that profitable for Johnson, or profitable for Ford to buy it and sit on it?

Parents literally disclose EVERYTHING.  And then someone else can just copy it 20 years later.  If and when that happens, maybe you can look to shenanigans happening.  Since it never happened, you can figure that it probably wasn't that great of an idea to begin with.

Crap I was totally going to sell him my patented process for cold fusion too.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: DoubleDown on August 12, 2013, 10:44:32 AM
Haven't been playing in the game, but my 401k statement for last month says I got 10.82% returns for the month just sitting there, doing absolutely no buying or selling or re-balancing, and that is with only 50% invested in broad equity indexes like the S&P 500 (the other 50% is in gov. securities and bonds). Just wanted to give the 10,000,000th vote for long term index investing.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 12, 2013, 02:20:35 PM
Tesla will keep climbing because of it's innovation and niche in the auto industry markets. (The auto makers couldn't buy out this electric car idea and quench it. Elon Musk is far to rich to let that happen this time.) It's taking a bite out of them, and offering better incentives to luxury and middle class customers for electric cars. Plus the use of electricity in an automobile has a long long forgotten history, that Ford and many others tried hushing back in the 1900's with AC car motors and wireless power and permanent magnet motor ideas. Do your own research on those ones and remember history is made before the patent is issued, though it can be bought out and rewritten after the patent  and never implemented into the world's economics for various "destructive to their business model" reasons. (Howard Johnson U.S. Patent No. 4,151,431 is an interesting one that makes fuel engines obsolete. He hassled for 6 years trying to get that approved. Then Ford bought it and shelved it for good to Ford business reasons.)

I have a hard time believing conspiracy theories on anything like this, especially related to patents.

Your last example, for instance, is ridiculous. Even if Ford did do so to block that patent from being implemented, it'd buy him like 20 years.

If this was the case, we'd have seen other companies implement it right after the patent protection was up.  Given that they didn't (and they would have, had there been profit in it, given the way capitalism works), the whole story reeks of bullshit.

If it wasn't profitable for them to do 20 years later, do you really think it would have been that profitable for Johnson, or profitable for Ford to buy it and sit on it?

Parents literally disclose EVERYTHING.  And then someone else can just copy it 20 years later.  If and when that happens, maybe you can look to shenanigans happening.  Since it never happened, you can figure that it probably wasn't that great of an idea to begin with.

You of all people should know, that every 20 years that goes by, the education systems intentionally get worse because much wealthier people make it that way to protect their power,earnings, and profitable systems of corruption off the backs of financial slaves. The government doesn't mind it either  because it's easier to control the citizens and they keep collecting income from their hard but eventually thoughtless work. Then it becomes easy to spend other's people's money.

Oh these are proven profitable patents, even world economic changers, and many inventors have replicated them. They have resold them for profits, only to get bought out again and again under federally protected non-disclosure agreements as apart of the hush up deals.

Here is one link that might interest you and others about the re-written history of electric cars, fuel efficient vehicles, and free energy motor devices: http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=44  (http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=44)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 12, 2013, 02:24:28 PM
Haven't been playing in the game, but my 401k statement for last month says I got 10.82% returns for the month just sitting there, doing absolutely no buying or selling or re-balancing, and that is with only 50% invested in broad equity indexes like the S&P 500 (the other 50% is in gov. securities and bonds). Just wanted to give the 10,000,000th vote for long term index investing.

The problem with above, is the following month it goes to -10.82%..for a total yearly sum of sometimes -5%, sometimes +5%. Vacillation of your money at it's finest, while the only guarantee of profits without any risk is made by fund fees and commission fees. (and eventual government taxes and/or fees)

When you give up control of choosing stocks and give up your right to vote with proxy votes, the powerful get to play with the fees and your money.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: brewer12345 on August 12, 2013, 02:44:22 PM
Tesla will keep climbing because of it's innovation and niche in the auto industry markets. (The auto makers couldn't buy out this electric car idea and quench it. Elon Musk is far to rich to let that happen this time.) It's taking a bite out of them, and offering better incentives to luxury and middle class customers for electric cars. Plus the use of electricity in an automobile has a long long forgotten history, that Ford and many others tried hushing back in the 1900's with AC car motors and wireless power and permanent magnet motor ideas. Do your own research on those ones and remember history is made before the patent is issued, though it can be bought out and rewritten after the patent  and never implemented into the world's economics for various "destructive to their business model" reasons. (Howard Johnson U.S. Patent No. 4,151,431 is an interesting one that makes fuel engines obsolete. He hassled for 6 years trying to get that approved. Then Ford bought it and shelved it for good to Ford business reasons.)

I have a hard time believing conspiracy theories on anything like this, especially related to patents.

Your last example, for instance, is ridiculous. Even if Ford did do so to block that patent from being implemented, it'd buy him like 20 years.

If this was the case, we'd have seen other companies implement it right after the patent protection was up.  Given that they didn't (and they would have, had there been profit in it, given the way capitalism works), the whole story reeks of bullshit.

If it wasn't profitable for them to do 20 years later, do you really think it would have been that profitable for Johnson, or profitable for Ford to buy it and sit on it?

Parents literally disclose EVERYTHING.  And then someone else can just copy it 20 years later.  If and when that happens, maybe you can look to shenanigans happening.  Since it never happened, you can figure that it probably wasn't that great of an idea to begin with.

You of all people should know, that every 20 years that goes by, the education systems intentionally get worse because much wealthier people make it that way to protect their power,earnings, and profitable systems of corruption off the backs of financial slaves. The government doesn't mind it either  because it's easier to control the citizens and they keep collecting income from their hard but eventually thoughtless work. Then it becomes easy to spend other's people's money.

Oh these are proven profitable patents, even world economic changers, and many inventors have replicated them. They have resold them for profits, only to get bought out again and again under federally protected non-disclosure agreements as apart of the hush up deals.

Here is one link that might interest you and others about the re-written history of electric cars, fuel efficient vehicles, and free energy motor devices: http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=44  (http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=44)

How much would the tinfoil hat concession go for at your house?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Undecided on August 12, 2013, 03:41:14 PM
Haven't been playing in the game, but my 401k statement for last month says I got 10.82% returns for the month just sitting there, doing absolutely no buying or selling or re-balancing, and that is with only 50% invested in broad equity indexes like the S&P 500 (the other 50% is in gov. securities and bonds). Just wanted to give the 10,000,000th vote for long term index investing.

The problem with above, is the following month it goes to -10.82%..for a total yearly sum of sometimes -5%, sometimes +5%. Vacillation of your money at it's finest, while the only guarantee of profits without any risk is made by fund fees and commission fees. (and eventual government taxes and/or fees)

When you give up control of choosing stocks and give up your right to vote with proxy votes, the powerful get to play with the fees and your money.

Funds are highly transparent and accountable in their voting.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/active-vs-passive-management/msg101155/#msg101155
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: DoubleDown on August 12, 2013, 04:11:14 PM

The problem with above, is the following month it goes to -10.82%..for a total yearly sum of sometimes -5%, sometimes +5%. Vacillation of your money at it's finest, while the only guarantee of profits without any risk is made by fund fees and commission fees. (and eventual government taxes and/or fees)

When you give up control of choosing stocks and give up your right to vote with proxy votes, the powerful get to play with the fees and your money.

Nope. The annual administrative fees for my 401k are 0.027%. You read that right, 0.027%. That's 27 cents for every $1000. And the average administrative fee for 401k plans across all employers is 0.83% -- not exactly highway robbery in my book.

Also, any vacillation has of course been far less than would be experienced in market timing with short term trades, and I don't have to do any work (well, maybe 10 minutes once every year or so to re-balance). Overall, my annual returns would mirror the long term returns of the market indexes, so 9-11%; not an average of 0% as your post suggests (you said maybe -5% one year, and +5% the next). And of course there are no government taxes or fees as you've said. Since in this case I was talking about a 401k, it's the exact opposite: I get to deduct all those contributions, which makes a giant difference in my annual tax bill. Short term trades on the other hand are taxed pretty heavily. But we've been down this road with you before, no sense in rehashing it I guess.

I don't want to rain on the stock trading game. It is a game though. Anyone who thinks they could take favorable results from the short term game and apply it to real life in the long term is gambling. I could literally out-earn just about every short term trader in this game by playing blackjack, with more reliable results. And that's gambling. My original post was to say that my real (and boring) portfolio is matching the gains of the game players, and I'm not doing a damn thing.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 14, 2013, 10:22:55 AM
Tesla will keep climbing because of it's innovation and niche in the auto industry markets. (The auto makers couldn't buy out this electric car idea and quench it. Elon Musk is far to rich to let that happen this time.) It's taking a bite out of them, and offering better incentives to luxury and middle class customers for electric cars. Plus the use of electricity in an automobile has a long long forgotten history, that Ford and many others tried hushing back in the 1900's with AC car motors and wireless power and permanent magnet motor ideas. Do your own research on those ones and remember history is made before the patent is issued, though it can be bought out and rewritten after the patent  and never implemented into the world's economics for various "destructive to their business model" reasons. (Howard Johnson U.S. Patent No. 4,151,431 is an interesting one that makes fuel engines obsolete. He hassled for 6 years trying to get that approved. Then Ford bought it and shelved it for good to Ford business reasons.)

I have a hard time believing conspiracy theories on anything like this, especially related to patents.

Your last example, for instance, is ridiculous. Even if Ford did do so to block that patent from being implemented, it'd buy him like 20 years.

If this was the case, we'd have seen other companies implement it right after the patent protection was up.  Given that they didn't (and they would have, had there been profit in it, given the way capitalism works), the whole story reeks of bullshit.

If it wasn't profitable for them to do 20 years later, do you really think it would have been that profitable for Johnson, or profitable for Ford to buy it and sit on it?

Parents literally disclose EVERYTHING.  And then someone else can just copy it 20 years later.  If and when that happens, maybe you can look to shenanigans happening.  Since it never happened, you can figure that it probably wasn't that great of an idea to begin with.

You of all people should know, that every 20 years that goes by, the education systems intentionally get worse because much wealthier people make it that way to protect their power,earnings, and profitable systems of corruption off the backs of financial slaves. The government doesn't mind it either  because it's easier to control the citizens and they keep collecting income from their hard but eventually thoughtless work. Then it becomes easy to spend other's people's money.

Oh these are proven profitable patents, even world economic changers, and many inventors have replicated them. They have resold them for profits, only to get bought out again and again under federally protected non-disclosure agreements as apart of the hush up deals.

Here is one link that might interest you and others about the re-written history of electric cars, fuel efficient vehicles, and free energy motor devices: http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=44  (http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=44)

How much would the tinfoil hat concession go for at your house?

I am just a thinker, not a worker ant, not a soldier ant, just an independent thinker ant.

When your colony says Christopher Columbus is a Hero for discovering America, then later you learn on your own that he was looking for a gold temple, but didn't find it, so he took back hundreds of Native American slaves to be sold in the markets...

It makes you wonder what else your colony is not telling you..
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 14, 2013, 12:55:30 PM
Freeyourchains: it looks like you changed your name on the stock picking game.  The "hidethedrone" account is yours?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: RaveOregon on August 14, 2013, 01:55:59 PM
He just isn't in the top 10 anymore so to find his name you need to click see all and then go to page 2.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 14, 2013, 02:02:41 PM
He just isn't in the top 10 anymore so to find his name you need to click see all and then go to page 2.

Ah.  I had clicked "see all" but assumed on refresh it would load them all on that same page.  I didn't realize there was a second page.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: RaveOregon on August 14, 2013, 02:17:28 PM
Yeah, I don't quite get why they have the site mapped that way. If I click see all I want to see more than it is already showing me, not the same thing.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on August 14, 2013, 06:52:08 PM
It looks like by default it shows you the "Top Ranked Players," i.e. the top ten. If you hit Show All, it will give you the full list, albeit ten players per page. Yeah, it's not the most intuitive.

In other news, I bought a new batch of stocks. Method is not particularly clever - I just chose stocks that had the word "Home" in the company name. We'll see how this works out. It occurs to me (a bit late) that this isn't really random - those stocks are more likely to be affected by the state of the housing industry. But what the heck, I'm only holding them for a month. Maybe next time I'll choose based on more neutral words. ("Purple" comes to mind.)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 15, 2013, 08:59:31 AM

The problem with above, is the following month it goes to -10.82%..for a total yearly sum of sometimes -5%, sometimes +5%. Vacillation of your money at it's finest, while the only guarantee of profits without any risk is made by fund fees and commission fees. (and eventual government taxes and/or fees)

When you give up control of choosing stocks and give up your right to vote with proxy votes, the powerful get to play with the fees and your money.

Nope. The annual administrative fees for my 401k are 0.027%. You read that right, 0.027%. That's 27 cents for every $1000. And the average administrative fee for 401k plans across all employers is 0.83% -- not exactly highway robbery in my book.

Also, any vacillation has of course been far less than would be experienced in market timing with short term trades, and I don't have to do any work (well, maybe 10 minutes once every year or so to re-balance). Overall, my annual returns would mirror the long term returns of the market indexes, so 9-11%; not an average of 0% as your post suggests (you said maybe -5% one year, and +5% the next). And of course there are no government taxes or fees as you've said. Since in this case I was talking about a 401k, it's the exact opposite: I get to deduct all those contributions, which makes a giant difference in my annual tax bill. Short term trades on the other hand are taxed pretty heavily. But we've been down this road with you before, no sense in rehashing it I guess.

I don't want to rain on the stock trading game. It is a game though. Anyone who thinks they could take favorable results from the short term game and apply it to real life in the long term is gambling. I could literally out-earn just about every short term trader in this game by playing blackjack, with more reliable results. And that's gambling. My original post was to say that my real (and boring) portfolio is matching the gains of the game players, and I'm not doing a damn thing.

I don't know if you noticed, but a lot of us where up to the $1,000 range in under a month from quality stock picks at undervalued price ranges. There is a lot more to it then "gambling". A lot more professional then gambling to if you know what you are doing. But if you see it as gambling with people's jobs, then hey Cisco just laid off  4,000 professional jobs while it made record breaking earnings, you can talk to the CEOs about that one. The CEO especially loves the Stock Market. They must be gamblers of people's lives everyday then.

In a 401k Fund, you don't control what is bought or sold or the variable fees or what your employer choses as fund options. Most average from 1-2%. (employers may chose cheapest options with highest fees passed onto the employees)

Plus any 401k to IRA roll-overs hit you with nasty 3rd party fees now adays (and this is why these companies are advertising the Roll-over all over the place on media sites), and try to limit your IRA fund options, though don't let them. However mustachians are smarter, and most go to Vanguard upon a Roll-over...yet keep in mind the following...

But yeah. I am not completely against this approach for FI. (especially with any employer matching) I just don't believe in maxing it out and putting all your eggs into one heavily controlled, age restrictive, withdraw restrictive, loophole only, tax advantaged pipeline will allow you to retire forever, in less than 10 years. (Unless you are already age 59.5)

And to sum it up: every risk involved with any investment is a gamble; however, Skill is consistent and usually always improved upon, luck not so much, government policies not so much either.


Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Undecided on August 15, 2013, 11:15:19 AM
In a 401k Fund, you don't control what is bought or sold or the variable fees or what your employer choses as fund options.

Wrong. Where do you get this stuff? I'm going to ask because I don't think I've seen you address this. Have you ever had a meaningful amount of money in a 401(k) or an IRA?

Plus any 401k to IRA roll-overs hit you with nasty 3rd party fees now adays (and this is why these companies are advertising the Roll-over all over the place on media sites), and try to limit your IRA fund options, though don't let them.


After .33 second, Google gives me a couple of names I recognize (there are others), who will take your rollover for no fee:

https://us.etrade.com/retirement/401k-rollover-ira

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/accounts_products/accounts/ira/rollover_ira

I'll leave it to others to address your claims regarding the "skill" reflected by the stock trading game picks, if they think it's worth it.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 15, 2013, 12:34:53 PM
We don't.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: DoubleDown on August 15, 2013, 02:38:05 PM


I don't know if you noticed, but a lot of us where up to the $1,000 range in under a month from quality stock picks at undervalued price ranges. There is a lot more to it then "gambling". A lot more professional then gambling to if you know what you are doing.
...
And to sum it up: every risk involved with any investment is a gamble; however, Skill is consistent and usually always improved upon, luck not so much, government policies not so much either.

Meh, you've got it backwards. $1,000 is a couple of hours of work for a professional blackjack player, with a far more reliable and mathematically proven record, than trying to outperform the market. If you think day trading is less gambling than a skilled blackjack player, I respectfully suggest looking into it. You'll find you'd have more reliable results with blackjack than trying to outperform markets.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: matchewed on August 15, 2013, 03:37:30 PM
Yeah and blackjack has the advantage of being a mathematical model which can be understood to adjust the odds slightly in your favor. Stock trading, IMO, has no mathematical model that I'm aware of which can manipulate things into your favor.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 16, 2013, 07:29:41 AM


I don't know if you noticed, but a lot of us where up to the $1,000 range in under a month from quality stock picks at undervalued price ranges. There is a lot more to it then "gambling". A lot more professional then gambling to if you know what you are doing.
...
And to sum it up: every risk involved with any investment is a gamble; however, Skill is consistent and usually always improved upon, luck not so much, government policies not so much either.

Meh, you've got it backwards. $1,000 is a couple of hours of work for a professional blackjack player, with a far more reliable and mathematically proven record, than trying to outperform the market. If you think day trading is less gambling than a skilled blackjack player, I respectfully suggest looking into it. You'll find you'd have more reliable results with blackjack than trying to outperform markets.

You all are much much too focused on the "performance of the general stock market".
You are not looking at the "Performance of the skilled individual traders" who retired over the centuries whom have made thousands to hundreds of billions per year. (if you include CEO Share options and hedge fund Billionaires who trade month to month. Though most have ownership and power over their created sometimes very successful businesses.)

50% of the Worlds wealth is in the Stock Market. (Roughly $24 Trillion dollars).

I am just saying it's possible to do better then a salaried manager (who gets paid regardless of how the fund or markets are doing with your money.)

Kind of like politicians, who get paid regardless if the country is collapsing or not. (sometimes you do much better with a gun in your own hands.)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Flynlow on August 16, 2013, 07:59:29 AM
Joined!  Should be fun :).  I'd rather "play" at this than fantasy football. 
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: NumberCruncher on August 16, 2013, 09:42:29 AM
You are not looking at the "Performance of the skilled individual traders" who retired over the centuries whom have made thousands to hundreds of billions per year.

And most of the people that do this professionally (pick stocks) fail to do better than the index...

"Ah! but what about the *skilled* ones who do beat the index?"

most likely chance: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57594164/does-past-performance-matter/ (posted more for any random new-comer's benefit rather than your own, since it seems like all the evidence in the world won't change your mind)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: DoubleDown on August 16, 2013, 11:54:44 AM

You all are much much too focused on the "performance of the general stock market".
You are not looking at the "Performance of the skilled individual traders" who retired over the centuries whom have made thousands to hundreds of billions per year. (if you include CEO Share options and hedge fund Billionaires who trade month to month.


Sure, give me $1 billion in capital to play blackjack with, and I would likely turn that into $1.1 billion in one day (a $100 million, 10% return on investment in one day). In one year that would be a 3650% return, a profit of $36.5 Billion in one year if it was sustainable (it's not) and I never gambled more than the initial capital. But you and I likely don't have a billion dollars to throw around, so I'm not sure why you're introducing that kind of scale now.

You're missing the more important point: What you are doing is gambling, with perhaps some skill applied. I'm trying to help you understand that even games of chance like blackjack, which are inherently risky, actually have better performance with skill applied than trying to beat the market! Beating the general market is the benchmark, because as I've already explained, I can get 9-11% return (what some of the game winners might be getting) all while doing absolutely nothing except sitting on my couch and leaving my $ in index funds. Beating the market is not sustainable, just as winning billions of dollars in a casino is not sustainable (they'll kick you out long before).
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 16, 2013, 12:51:55 PM
You are not looking at the "Performance of the skilled individual traders" who retired over the centuries whom have made thousands to hundreds of billions per year.

And most of the people that do this professionally (pick stocks) fail to do better than the index...

"Ah! but what about the *skilled* ones who do beat the index?"

most likely chance: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57594164/does-past-performance-matter/ (posted more for any random new-comer's benefit rather than your own, since it seems like all the evidence in the world won't change your mind)

Lol and once you make your first yearly 120% returns, or monthly 10%+++ returns you'll believe me.

If you invested with TSLA 6 months ago, you'd be at 282.61% returns.

If you are a king, why would you give your treasury and power to decide where to invest in your kingdom, to another person?

Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 16, 2013, 01:02:06 PM

You all are much much too focused on the "performance of the general stock market".
You are not looking at the "Performance of the skilled individual traders" who retired over the centuries whom have made thousands to hundreds of billions per year. (if you include CEO Share options and hedge fund Billionaires who trade month to month.


Sure, give me $1 billion in capital to play blackjack with, and I would likely turn that into $1.1 billion in one day (a $100 million, 10% return on investment in one day). In one year that would be a 3650% return, a profit of $36.5 Billion in one year if it was sustainable (it's not) and I never gambled more than the initial capital. But you and I likely don't have a billion dollars to throw around, so I'm not sure why you're introducing that kind of scale now.

You're missing the more important point: What you are doing is gambling, with perhaps some skill applied. I'm trying to help you understand that even games of chance like blackjack, which are inherently risky, actually have better performance with skill applied than trying to beat the market! Beating the general market is the benchmark, because as I've already explained, I can get 9-11% return (what some of the game winners might be getting) all while doing absolutely nothing except sitting on my couch and leaving my $ in index funds. Beating the market is not sustainable, just as winning billions of dollars in a casino is not sustainable (they'll kick you out long before).

I understand what you are saying, but trading is far from gambling. It's more business oriented and Market oriented with dynamic foundations of supply and demand, then odds of winning a game.

Think of Warren Buffet for a few moments. He bought many undervalued shares of companies when he first started his business. Then investors invested in his business so that he would keep performing and out beating the markets with his simple, "buy low high quality undervalued companies low, then sell them high" business model. They kept giving him more and more capital to work with, and he was able to keep buying low and selling high more and more shares of companies, untill the stock market itself "threw him out of the buying shares game," based on the stock market's own founding principals of supply and demand. Buying 1.2 million shares of a company will raise the stock price dramatically, and it takes longer and longer amounts of time to set up those "trades" to make them profitable. So instead of trading, he began buying, selling, leveraging half or entire companies themselves. Buy the company undervalued, sell it at high value.

Before you know it, billions in profits per year.

So i guess his business model was more of a business model, then a day trading strategy. Since he got more and more capital to leverage from venture capitalists and investors. But a Marketplace is a lot different then a Casino.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Undecided on August 16, 2013, 01:12:14 PM
You are not looking at the "Performance of the skilled individual traders" who retired over the centuries whom have made thousands to hundreds of billions per year.

And most of the people that do this professionally (pick stocks) fail to do better than the index...

"Ah! but what about the *skilled* ones who do beat the index?"

most likely chance: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57594164/does-past-performance-matter/ (posted more for any random new-comer's benefit rather than your own, since it seems like all the evidence in the world won't change your mind)

Lol and once you make your first yearly 120% returns, or monthly 10%+++ returns you'll believe me.

If you invested with TSLA 6 months ago, you'd be at 282.61% returns.

If you are a king, why would you give your treasury and power to decide where to invest in your kingdom, to another person?

If "you" invested only with TSLA 6 months ago, yes, but the odds are that "you" also invested in other stocks and that most of those were losers, that "you" sold TSLA at the wrong time and/or did other things that together made your overall return over any extended period lower than the return of the total U.S.-listed equity market over the same time.

Even a king can't command the weather.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 17, 2013, 07:39:44 AM
Lol and once you make your first yearly 120% returns, or monthly 10%+++ returns you'll believe me.

If you invested with TSLA 6 months ago, you'd be at 282.61% returns.

And then maybe once you have your -120% returns to balance it out, you'll believe us.

Sure, you'll have successes.  No one's saying you won't.  You can sit down and win a few hands of blackjack in a row.

But is picking a stock like TSLA repeatable and sustainable?  No.  You'll have losses that balance it out, and - overall - you'll end up underperforming the market.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 19, 2013, 07:52:10 AM
You are not looking at the "Performance of the skilled individual traders" who retired over the centuries whom have made thousands to hundreds of billions per year.

And most of the people that do this professionally (pick stocks) fail to do better than the index...

"Ah! but what about the *skilled* ones who do beat the index?"

most likely chance: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57594164/does-past-performance-matter/ (posted more for any random new-comer's benefit rather than your own, since it seems like all the evidence in the world won't change your mind)

Lol and once you make your first yearly 120% returns, or monthly 10%+++ returns you'll believe me.

If you invested with TSLA 6 months ago, you'd be at 282.61% returns.

If you are a king, why would you give your treasury and power to decide where to invest in your kingdom, to another person?

If "you" invested only with TSLA 6 months ago, yes, but the odds are that "you" also invested in other stocks and that most of those were losers, that "you" sold TSLA at the wrong time and/or did other things that together made your overall return over any extended period lower than the return of the total U.S.-listed equity market over the same time.

Even a king can't command the weather.

Right, but a king can use his skills of reading the weather to win the war, while he is investing in weapons and shields on both sides to make his treasury stronger.


Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Le Dérisoire on August 19, 2013, 09:50:41 AM
I joined! I'll probably bet everything on a single stock, and probably even short it if the game allows it. I'll either be first or last. It's fun!

Freeyourchains2, are you familiar with the Modern portfolio theory and concepts such as normal distribution, variance of a portfolio and the efficient market hypothesis?

I'm not implying that I know anything about that (I don't, I'm ignorant) or that you don't, but it seems to me that it would be quite useful to refer to these concepts in the discussion above.

For instance, could the Warren Buffet example be explained not so much by extraordinary skills but by:

1) Chance (Buffet happened to be in the extreme-right X axis of the normal distribution curve);
2) A very high E(r) and σ 2 Portfolio in the early years;
3) Access to the 'float' of insurances companies that provided some kind of low-risk leverage?

I'm just throwing words like that because I don't know a lot about finance (seriously), but the very little I know makes me ask: Will a skilled person make more money than an unskilled person, while taking the same amount of risk?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Crash87 on August 19, 2013, 05:06:15 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 20, 2013, 06:55:54 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)

I have been accused of being a troll on here because someone didn't like my opinion. I think it's part of the judgementalism inherent in IA. Some of us are just extremely rigidly thinking and some of us feel the need to lash out at those who do not share our opinions. Thus opening up the troll trap.

Perhaps the finger pointing is directly related to how much power they feel over "trolls" in real life? They can't accuse someone of being a troll in real life, so they do it extensively and without censorship on here?

Either way I am not here to battle..just here to have fun and talk constructively, and even debate a bit.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 20, 2013, 07:08:38 AM
There are plenty here who don't believe in efficient markets and try to trade. Some of them are highly esteemed posters. If you're being labeled a troll, maybe it's because of how you post rather than what you're saying.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Crash87 on August 20, 2013, 04:33:35 PM
Perhaps the finger pointing is directly related to how much power they feel over "trolls" in real life? They can't accuse someone of being a troll in real life, so they do it extensively and without censorship on here?

just here to have fun

I've never met a troll in real life. Trolls only troll on the Internet so their real life persona remains untarnished.

Trolls can be identified by their use cherry picked facts/unsubstantiated claims and disregard of contrary evidence that they use to uphold their side of an argument/debate.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 20, 2013, 04:35:01 PM
I've never met a troll in real life. Trolls only troll on the Internet so their real life persona remains untarnished.

Maybe we'll get a chance to meet one day.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Crash87 on August 20, 2013, 06:35:52 PM
I've never met a troll in real life. Trolls only troll on the Internet so their real life persona remains untarnished.

Maybe we'll get a chance to meet one day.

I'm sure we'd be great friends
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 21, 2013, 12:13:03 PM
Maybe I'll get to meet Matchewed in real life and we'll turn out to become best friends during FI.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: matchewed on August 21, 2013, 01:21:56 PM
I swear I'll buy you a beer one day (and if you don't drink a ginger ale).
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: smedleyb on August 24, 2013, 10:21:41 PM
Too lazy to open account, but I am personally moving  IRA money in emerging market funds and have (like a moth to a flame) slowly begun to accumulate Dec Spyder puts in anticipations of a volatile Sept/Oct time frame.  Not always right but that's what's up in my investment universe.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on August 24, 2013, 10:30:42 PM
anticipations of a volatile Sept/Oct time frame.

I agree, but wouldn't bet on my hunch.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Roland of Gilead on August 26, 2013, 08:55:05 AM
Ok I joined.  A bit disappointed that you can't trade options, as I would want to leverage $10,000 by buying Oct Microsoft $34 puts and selling Sept $33 puts.  I could make an easy 50% with that trade.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Roland of Gilead on August 26, 2013, 10:09:43 AM
Wow this is a dream account!  There are no "hard to borrow" fees for shorting penny stocks and there is no penalty for "freeriding"!

I could make a million with an account like this in real life.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: smedleyb on August 26, 2013, 12:27:12 PM
Ok I joined.  A bit disappointed that you can't trade options, as I would want to leverage $10,000 by buying Oct Microsoft $34 puts and selling Sept $33 puts.  I could make an easy 50% with that trade.

I agree with the mechanics of this trade.  A little too much unwarranted excitement over Mr. Balmer's immanent departure.  I would look to trade the second thrust higher, IMO. 
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Cecil on August 26, 2013, 12:28:18 PM
Hey look at that, I'm winning! (I'm "David nope")

All because TSLA happened to gain 42% since we started.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Roland of Gilead on August 26, 2013, 05:55:40 PM
I somehow locked up my account by trying to go long on AFFY and not realizing it is trading on the pinks now.

The trade just says 15 min delayed with no option to cancel.

I guess you can't trade OTC pinks.  Too bad, because one pop in a biotech and I win this game.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on August 26, 2013, 07:03:30 PM
Hey look at that, I'm winning! (I'm "David nope")

All because TSLA happened to gain 42% since we started.

Good on you, sir!

But wait, what's this "happened to gain" bit? I thought you were one of those "skilled personal traders" that was previously mentioned. So... you chose TSLA based on careful analysis and recognizing that it was trading at an undervalued price and so would eventually climb, right?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Roland of Gilead on August 26, 2013, 07:33:26 PM
I would have shorted the crap out of Tesla today when it hit $172 if my account had not locked up on the AFFY trade.

It is a decent high risk stock at about $40 a share.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 27, 2013, 09:32:16 AM
I would have shorted the crap out of Tesla today when it hit $172 if my account had not locked up on the AFFY trade.

It is a decent high risk stock at about $40 a share.

TSLA has potential of climbing to $300 in the next 4 months, then $1000 over the next year.

It all depends on the continual suppression by big government and big corporations of "Free Energy" and Electric Vehicle technology.  But Elon Musk is treading dangerous waters because he is trying to free the middle class from oil dependency of which the Governments of USA, Europe, Asia, and Middle East  depend heavily on for taxes. Global Big Oil Corporations depend heavily on it as well as they stretch across all governments. Elon Musk is hard to buy off and suppress because he has billions already and many world changing visions that were bought out in the past, he is already implementing in a visionary/revolutionary and industrial way. SpaceX is still Private for a reason.
Solar City is putting solar panels on every real estate property across the nation. Etc.

He is a genius with an agenda that the government and other big titans can't keep up with.

A small taste of suppression history below:

Dr. Nicholas Tesla put wirelessly powered AC motors  into cars as early as 1907. Free energy inventions are as simply built as putting 8 magnets in a stationary outer circle, with  8 magnets in a revolving inner circle turning a generator continuously and endlessly.. were invented as early as 1935, then those patents and inventions were continuously bought by Henry Ford and other Mega Rich Titans and shelved so consumer taxed workers would still spend, work, and be taxed.

A lot more interesting reading here about it: http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=976 (http://fuel-efficient-vehicles.org/energy-news/?page_id=976)

There are more caves to open up your eyes and unshackle from then just financial work slavery. Mustachianism helps free your financial bonds, but what about your bonds to Kings and Governments and their agendas? (Hint: they need you to keep working, else they die.)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 27, 2013, 09:37:31 AM
Perpetual motion has existed in a commercially viable form since 1935 and nobody noticed? Interestly!
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: matchewed on August 27, 2013, 09:59:08 AM
At the very least it got me to look up how many countries still had an absolute monarchy (6!). I'm not going to bother to look up the free energy as not even patents would protect an invention that could actually do that.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Cecil on August 27, 2013, 10:27:00 AM
Quote
Free energy inventions are as simply built as putting 8 magnets in a stationary outer circle, with  8 magnets in a revolving inner circle turning a generator continuously and endlessly

Does this message board have a way to ignore people?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 27, 2013, 10:44:26 AM
Yes. (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/index.php?action=post;quote=93892;topic=11.200)

(https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/forum-ideas/?action=dlattach;attach=1236)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 27, 2013, 11:15:32 AM
At the very least it got me to look up how many countries still had an absolute monarchy (6!). I'm not going to bother to look up the free energy as not even patents would protect an invention that could actually do that.

Weekend project Matchewed: DIY self-sustaining autonomous power generator from only permanent magnets and carpentry/welding skills under a budget of $50 investment dollars.

Get it running so it generates a continuous flow of amps (5V, 0.02A or so), then start charging some low voltage items. This will help amaze you and get you thinking more along the lines of "Free Energy" and why it's being suppressed (human greed economics). Of course us engineering/science oriented Mustachians' rebellious and curiously open minded natures will then get you thinking about how this can power higher voltage items freely ;-)

Then you'll realize a few extremely important things about leaving this kind of cave below:

1) No more electricity bills, ever! (A $265 Billion dollar revenue industry, http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table10.pdf (http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table10.pdf) just in the 50 states alone. So maybe $2 Trillion globally.)
2) No more electricity bill taxes, ever!
3) No more electricity Bill customer surcharge fees that go up due to inflation and "CEO salary increases by defaulted investor proxy vote" (Yes i stuck that in here properly, hehe).
4) You found a way around inflation by building it yourself and locally.
5) Keep tinkering and you can make it more efficient and get more power.
6) Tesla added a third coil to his Tesla Transformer Coil to get thousands of Amps from a few amps back in 1902 (Patented and witnessed here: https://www.google.com/patents/US1119732?printsec=drawing&dq=tesla+1902&ei=t9UcUqGlI-O9sQSYiIDIDQ#v=onepage&q=tesla%201902&f=false.
Got to love Google Patents and the power of the internet)
7) If 7 billion people each built one for themselves, they could purify ocean water, cook food, grow food autonomously, and build whatever they desired quickly and numerously without having to buy it from big government or big corporations.

But i am derailing this thread now, lol. I'll start another thread in Misc about this. It's so simple, yet no one is aware of it. Just like Mustachianism.

Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 27, 2013, 11:29:26 AM
So you power your house entirely through perpetual motion?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 27, 2013, 11:38:33 AM
Quote
Free energy inventions are as simply built as putting 8 magnets in a stationary outer circle, with  8 magnets in a revolving inner circle turning a generator continuously and endlessly

Does this message board have a way to ignore people?
Ignoring others will only keep you in the cave, lol. I am putting it in a different thread.
What if you didn't stumble upon MMM? You would still be in the cave until someone else told you about the sky outside.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 27, 2013, 12:11:22 PM
So you power your house entirely through perpetual motion?

Yes, but patent pending for a few reasons which i will try to explain here briefly. There is a lot of high competition with intelligence forces working round the clock to suppress a world wide change.

For example with this article (in 2010, 3 long years ago..): http://techcrunch.com/2010/02/22/bloom-energy-boxes/ (http://techcrunch.com/2010/02/22/bloom-energy-boxes/)

Interesting why the U.S. Patent Office is so backlogged...by about 6-7 years now, while 57% of the Tax payers' taxes go to "Classified" Military Budgets so the government can play with classified patents and remake them with their unlimited income and resources while others can not) so can't talk much about it and there is extremely high competition. Plus the possibility i will be bought out and it be shelved.... oh wait I am mustachian and I can say "NO! F YOU!" and then be shot or jailed forever, while my inventions have already been dispersed to family, friends, youtube, etc and the world is changed forever.

So since i hate power struggles, and A king/government thinks they own people still...i won't need to wait on "patent pending" will I. And if fear doesn't hold me back, (http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/08/23/fear-is-just-a-chemical/ (http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/08/23/fear-is-just-a-chemical/)) then i should start releasing my inventions shouldn't I?

It's quite a dilemma after seeing so many inventors suppressed, jailed, or killed throughout history for things that would change the world. History of the invention does not start with the Patent, which so many un-educated or unaware people think it does.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 27, 2013, 12:23:34 PM
Ok new thread has been started to not de-rail this one in the Off Topic section of the Forums.

Here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/free-energy-suppressed-before-with-bribes-of-money-but-we-are-mmm!!/
 (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/free-energy-suppressed-before-with-bribes-of-money-but-we-are-mmm!!/)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Le Dérisoire on August 28, 2013, 09:46:55 AM
So you power your house entirely through perpetual motion?

Yes, but patent pending for a few reasons which i will try to explain here briefly.

Pics or it didn't happened.

I'm amazed that you single-handedly disproved the laws of thermodynamics. You're a genius. Go work on string theory for the sake of humanity.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 28, 2013, 02:07:10 PM
So you power your house entirely through perpetual motion?

Yes, but patent pending for a few reasons which i will try to explain here briefly.

Pics or it didn't happened.

I'm amazed that you single-handedly disproved the laws of thermodynamics. You're a genius. Go work on string theory for the sake of humanity.

Pics in the newspaper didn't really do anything for Alfred Hubbard now did it..(1st pic)

Or Mr. Howard Johnson...(2nd pic)

But another attempt is being made by Wang-ShenHe and many others (3rd pic)

These inventions are all over the place, but only Tesla and a few of his predecessors and modern predecessors whom have studied his references and experiments have found a new form of physics that the world dismissed and supressed in 1902, especially by J.P Morgan. Whose long running company has recently being sued by the Department of Energy for fraudulent electricity rates (a taste of it's greedy history).

But i do laugh at the thought that the Law of Thermodynamics is beyond contestation in the science community.

How is it possible to leave the cave when the community says it's the Law not to go outside?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on August 30, 2013, 07:40:18 AM
Do you all think FB is going to $60 in less than 6 months?

Mobile marketing, plus millions in research for new website products and full steam for monetizing should be reason enough.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on August 30, 2013, 07:46:41 AM
No.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Le Dérisoire on August 30, 2013, 11:42:29 AM
Facebook is a fashion that will last until people find a better way  to express their egomania.

Something will replace facebook like facebook replaced MySpace.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Nords on August 31, 2013, 01:31:34 PM
This is the first time I've added someone to an "Ignore poster" list just to make sure that I don't accidentally give any credibility to their other posts. 
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on September 06, 2013, 07:41:35 AM
This is the first time I've added someone to an "Ignore poster" list just to make sure that I don't accidentally give any credibility to their other posts.

Your loss.

In my opinion, you should keep an open mind on your fellow man's voice and mind; for they might be right and lead you to see the light outside of the cave, like MMM is doing for his fellow men and women, and like Tesla did for the world.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on September 09, 2013, 08:03:36 AM
Back to the Game.

Thanks Tesla Motors and Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. for bringing me back into the game.

I made some foolish too quick trades a few weeks ago to go from +$1750 down to nearly -$2,000.

But then learned a few lessons about pre share buy back rallies and falls when a buyback price is eventually decided among the owner elites themselves and not really with the market investors.

Now I have come back quickly to all most positive return again.

I normally follow a month to month, 1-3 trades strategy, so i can fully research my stock picks and buy low when undervalued. Then wait a few months or over a year to sell high and take tremendous gains.

Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on September 19, 2013, 08:40:28 AM
Tesla Motors, FB, and Ino, wow what great returns!! Over these last 2 months!

Some have a 1 YR growth over 100%.

Creativity, Innovation, and no suppression allows wondrous things to occur!

Great Job everyone, you are mostly all beating the index fund average over the last 2 months!
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on September 24, 2013, 07:17:57 PM
Great Job everyone, you are mostly all beating the index fund average over the last 2 months!

I think you should probably use the "James 15" account as the index fund average, since this is the "lazy portfolio" containing three index funds for US stocks, international stocks, and US Bonds.  Currently it's in 6th place in the rankings - five players ahead of it (obviously), and 16 behind it.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Freeyourchains2 on September 25, 2013, 07:33:26 AM
Great Job everyone, you are mostly all beating the index fund average over the last 2 months!

I think you should probably use the "James 15" account as the index fund average, since this is the "lazy portfolio" containing three index funds for US stocks, international stocks, and US Bonds.  Currently it's in 6th place in the rankings - five players ahead of it (obviously), and 16 behind it.

More Info from these index funds.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares Top Holdings

Apple Inc (AAPL)   2.26%   
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)   2.22%   
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)   1.40%              
General Electric Co (GE)   1.34%              
Chevron Corp (CVX)   1.30%                    
Google, Inc. Class A (GOOG)   1.28%   
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)   1.28%   
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)   1.23%   
Procter & Gamble Co (PG)   1.17%   
International Business Machines Corp (IBM)   1.15%   

Apple moved from $402 to $489 (today) within the last 3 months. (21%)

XOM is so giant that it barely budges in stock price in modern day; however it has wonderful dividend growth rates.

Same with J&J! The beauty of both of these is the buy and hold forever strategy, as 3-4 stock splits occurred with company growth and company dividends over the last 30 years.

GE and CVS, Great dividend growth companies.

Google a powerful tech company, buy low, sell high; and they eye up opportunities in tech and engineers and buy them up fast.

MSFT is losing face value, and trying to force too many consumers to subscription based models with their software, and or mandatory forced updates that add more commercials instead of functional performance.

Wells Fargo, 19% return in the last year (to today)

PG, another great dividend growth company with 4 splits in the last 30 years due to tremendous company growth.

Same with IBM, but only two splits.

If these 9 stocks where you portfolio, it would be a strategy of 70% high quality dividend growth companies, and 30% for Capital Gains in long established Tech.

Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Top Holdings
Nestle SA (NSRGF)   1.14%   
HSBC Holdings PLC (HBCYF)   1.11%   
Roche Holding AG (RHHVF)   0.91%   
Novartis AG (NVSEF)   0.88%   
Toyota Motor Corp (7203)   0.85%   
Vodafone Group PLC (VODPF)   0.76%   
BP PLC (BPAQF)   0.69%   
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Class A (RYDAF)   0.68%   
GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GLAXF)   0.66%   
Sanofi (SAN)   0.62%   
 
There are some interesting stocks here.


Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares Top Holdings
US Treasury Note 1.75%           0.70%   
US Treasury Bond 6.25%           0.70%   
US Treasury Note 0.375%   0.69%   
US Treasury Note 0.375%   0.63%   
US Treasury Note 0.25%           0.59%   
US Treasury Note 0.25%           0.56%   
US Treasury Note 1.625%   0.56%   
US Treasury Note 0.375%   0.56%   
US Treasury Note 2.125%   0.55%   
US Treasury Note 0.625%   0.54%   

Here's an interesting article from 2010 about Obama and his investments:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-41142697/all-the-presidents-money-where-the-obamas-invested-in-2010/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-41142697/all-the-presidents-money-where-the-obamas-invested-in-2010/)

(I am not against passively investing in index funds with very low expense ratios. I just find it more fun to buy low, sell high and do more research on the market for more rewards. Kind of like the knowledge skills and passive/ active work difference between fixing a house to flip a house and renting a house; just with stocks.)

Fun note to add.

"Billionaire Mario Gabelli’s asset manager GAMCO Investors has beaten the S&P 500 by a little over 2% per year since inception in 1986, and his small cap picks have done even better. No wonder the firm now invests over $30 billion. Mario Gabelli, who was named Morningstar’s Fund Manager of the Year in 1997 and The Institutional Investor’s Money Manager of the Year in 2010, is one of a number of investors who have started with value investing founding fathers Graham and Dodd and added their own twist on that long-standing advice. In Mario Gabelli’s case, it is the insight that an investor can approach a public company from the perspective of an acquirer; some businesses may be worth more in the private market than as publicly traded companies, and so a valuation that looks fair in the markets may be very attractive from a buyer’s perspective. This generally results in a focus on cash flow as opposed to earnings. In the 1980s- the height of the leveraged buyout craze- this was a particularly lucrative investment strategy, but as the recent awards demonstrate Gabelli and GAMCO have continued to be good investors."
~ http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/gamco+investors/422/#BT9kIodPoCdvhgt8.99 (http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/gamco+investors/422/#BT9kIodPoCdvhgt8.99)
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on September 25, 2013, 08:08:50 AM
Facepalm.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on September 25, 2013, 06:30:44 PM
......
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on October 07, 2013, 07:23:03 PM
We're into the home stretch - current game is set to end on Oct 31, so another few weeks.

I look forward to hearing those with the best results explain how they achieved them and the process they went through in making the choices they did.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Cecil on October 24, 2013, 01:37:57 PM
I'm 3rd with a total value as of today of $13,400.

My process was to bet everything on black (50/50 between GOOG and TSLA), which works well in a paper money game like this one.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on October 24, 2013, 06:27:18 PM
Aha, I suspected as much! ;)

I'm hoping guys like Rave Oregon will comment - he's done quite a few trades and pretty much all his holdings have shown a reasonable profit. I'm beginning to suspect this guy knows what he is doing.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: KingCoin on October 24, 2013, 10:29:42 PM
I'm hoping guys like Rave Oregon will comment - he's done quite a few trades and pretty much all his holdings have shown a reasonable profit. I'm beginning to suspect this guy knows what he is doing.

I suspect little. I mean, he's long extremely high beta paper in a rising market. He's certainly had some losers (buying HXM 3.11, selling 2.27, buying ARR 4.31 selling 4.05, buying ANV 5.64 selling 4.42).

Hater gonna hate.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on October 25, 2013, 01:51:50 AM
Well you've done pretty all right too, KC, so I look forward to your wrap-up! Although I do have a feeling I am not going to follow a significant part of it.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: KingCoin on October 31, 2013, 02:30:41 PM
I win. I've come to claim my prize! (There's a prize, right?)

Postmortem:
KC Gamboooool   $13,548.98
workwheniwantto mmm   $13,271.17
David nope   $12,791.96
prodarwin nothing   $11,888.30
Rave Oregon   $11,534.27
James 15b   $11,331.53
Anthony Armfield   $11,317.66
James 15   $10,737.71
NumberCruncher LastName   $10,391.16
Matthew Chao   $10,144.80
Micheal C   $10,125.25
casey berrus   $10,056.95
Flynlow aaaaa   $10,030.18
AJDZee   $10,018.93
Roland of Gilead Gunslinger   $9,953.94
hidethedrone LastName   $9,908.54
ShavinItForLater MMM   $9,028.05
Andrew Craig   $8,969.14
Le Derisoire   $8,922.98
late comer   $8,731.89
JPDCPAJD JPDCPA   $8,141.25
Anony Mous   $8,022.00
Freeyourchains 2   $7,946.94
michael pyles   $7,041.06
   
Average   $10,160.61
S&P 500   $10,899.21

Let's all take a moment to revel in the irony that the guy who claimed a 30% quarterly return was a reasonable goal is down 21%. But what's 51% amongst friends? Better luck next time FYC2.

As much I'd like to chalk up winning to being a professional trader (my real strategy is very low volatility and poorly suited to winning this type of game, though, I'm sure I would have had the highest Sharpe ratio), the reality is that I was mostly just punting around in a highly levered mining concern. I could tell myself I was trading cues from silver and GDX, but I was really just gambling for fun and pretend profit. Once I was in the lead, I just mirrored the "portfolio" of the second place contender to make sure he couldn't gain any ground on me.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: Undecided on October 31, 2013, 03:26:45 PM

Let's all take a moment to revel in irony that the guy who claimed a 30% quarterly return was a reasonable goal is down 21%. But what's 51% amongst friends? Better luck next time FYC2.


In fairness, though, didn't he spend most of his time developing a perpetual motion machine or something like that. And besides, you took a 30% return, so IT IS POSSIBLE!!!

Sorry, lost control there.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: grantmeaname on October 31, 2013, 04:44:07 PM
Only if the laws of physics tax-advantaged accounts don't spoil your plans.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: brewer12345 on October 31, 2013, 04:53:33 PM

Let's all take a moment to revel in irony that the guy who claimed a 30% quarterly return was a reasonable goal is down 21%. But what's 51% amongst friends? Better luck next time FYC2.

That is some funny shit!  Where is our mentally unbalanced contest sponsor, anyway?  Surely he/she/it wants to crow about their performance in this little contest.
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: arebelspy on October 31, 2013, 06:39:34 PM

Let's all take a moment to revel in irony that the guy who claimed a 30% quarterly return was a reasonable goal is down 21%. But what's 51% amongst friends? Better luck next time FYC2.

That is some funny shit!  Where is our mentally unbalanced contest sponsor, anyway?  Surely he/she/it wants to crow about their performance in this little contest.

FYC2 has been banned from these forums for violating the terms of what was letting him stay.

No need to pile on him, but I do think the results speak for themselves.

I do like the Jeopardy style "mirror the 2nd place person" to win strategy :D
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: brewer12345 on October 31, 2013, 08:03:42 PM
I do like the Jeopardy style "mirror the 2nd place person" to win strategy :D

"I don't have to run faster than the bear, I just have to run faster than you."
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: JamesAt15 on November 01, 2013, 07:38:53 AM
Agreed! That is some pretty clever game play.

So... anyone want to describe how they succeeded at the game by rationally identifying undervalued equities and buying them with a good expectation that they would go up more than the base market increase?
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: KingCoin on November 01, 2013, 08:09:28 AM
So... anyone want to describe how they succeeded at the game by rationally identifying undervalued equities and buying them with a good expectation that they would go up more than the base market increase?

Unfortunately, I trade illiquid fixed income, and believe that the liquid equity market is probably the hardest one in the world to beat. One of my few individual stock positions is in TCX (see my comment from a year ago: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/stock-ideas/msg53447/#msg53447)
I believed that Ting had the potential to be a massive growth engine but that it was on the radar of almost no analysts. The company was probably fairly valued even if Ting flopped. This is sort of the Peter Lynch school of investing. Find a small, under the radar company whose products are getting hot with a certain segment. This is of course easier said than done, but TCX has rewarded me handsomely. Thanks MMM community!
Title: Re: Investor Alley Stock Trading Game
Post by: RaveOregon on November 07, 2013, 10:08:30 AM
I'm hoping guys like Rave Oregon will comment - he's done quite a few trades and pretty much all his holdings have shown a reasonable profit. I'm beginning to suspect this guy knows what he is doing.

I suspect little. I mean, he's long extremely high beta paper in a rising market. He's certainly had some losers (buying HXM 3.11, selling 2.27, buying ARR 4.31 selling 4.05, buying ANV 5.64 selling 4.42).

Hater gonna hate.

I used some value screens I occasionally run to get ideas on stocks that could be undervalued.  For this game I went with the last 10 that popped up. As the game went on and I tried to better position myself  I made trades replacing what I sold with more recent companies that came across my radar from the same screens.

I don't really look at Beta, but I am sure the fact we are playing in a rising market helps us all(and makes it even worse that Jame's lazy portfolio came in 8th of 24 and that 10 finished with less than starting).

As with everyone, I like to think I know what I am doing :P