At the moment it's really only down about 20% from the high of last year, I don't feel that's really that much of a discount.
Well, it's down 59% in the last 7yrs, and 43% over the last 3yrs. Do those figures strike you as more enticing? Of course, where the price was at some point in the past is sort of irrelevant (the fact the the Princess Diana Beanie Baby is down 99.8% in the last 7yrs doesn't make it a compelling buy), hence the use of measures like CAPE.
The market may well be pricing Russian equities correctly. That doesn't make them a bad buy, just a high risk/reward proposition that should be factored into your portfolio as such.
King, is OGZPY the only way to trade this? Also, do you have any issues with OTC stocks? I'd love to hear your take on this. (I was bidding under market all last week for a little bit of OGZPY, stock has been on fire.)
Love this idea.
I don't have a problem trading OTC ADR's. Gazprom is far more liquid on the London exchange (still trades USD denominated) if you want to put in a market order and be reasonably confident you're not going to get hosed on bid-ask.
I'm up almost 20% on the trade and thinking about bailing and waiting for a better entry point (even though I had this pegged as a set-it-and-forget-it). Publications like Crains Interest Rate Observer are pushing the trade hard. Barring the index as a whole, something like Lukoil, which has pretty respected management practices, is a less volatile way to make the same play at a higher cost.
As a similar trade, I like buying Puerto Rico GO's here. Especially the new 8's. They yield over 9% tax free and I think they should fare well even in a debt restructuring. That issue is a hedge fund hotel as is likely to be volatile, but also protected if things hit the fan.