Author Topic: Impact of US election on stock market?  (Read 6431 times)

Garrett B.

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Impact of US election on stock market?
« on: June 05, 2020, 05:05:25 AM »
What impacts do you see the results of the election having on US equity markets?  There are some theories that Trump is doing everything possible to prop up markets now because a large part of his election platform is based on the success of the stock market. If he loses, Biden won't have the same philosophy of pumping money like the Fed is now. And if Trump wins, he's out in 4 years anyways so may not have the same desperation to keep pumping money into markets.

What are your thoughts? Could we see a big crash following the election? Anyone planning on selling just prior to the election?

celerystalks

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2020, 06:41:42 AM »
What are you even talking about?

Garrett B.

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2020, 07:19:56 AM »
What are you even talking about?
My post is clear.  Maybe you don't follow the markets and politics like some others do so you can ignore this thread. 

KBecks

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2020, 07:39:37 AM »
I am expecting short-term volatility.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2020, 11:05:18 AM »
Both political factions are corporatist to their core. Long term nothing should be all that different.

Tyler durden

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2020, 11:53:38 AM »
It all comes down to what policies are passed. Charts show markets do well under both D and R.

I wouldn't look at averages to show that R is better than D or D is better than R. often times the policies of one president effect the economy / stock market deep into the first term of the new incoming president.

I don't see a crash. Trump barks at the FED but its still independent. Thank god they acted as swiftly and meaningfully as they did. Powell prior to this downturn has been increasing rates. That's why Trump was so mad at him.

So Biden comes in ? taxes go up a bit - no big deal

Trump stays - tax rates stay the same, no big deal

If Biden sweeps in with a overwhelming majority and DEMS have full control of both houses like they did under the first 2 years of Obama then I think policies they pass will have huge effects either positive or negative. to early to tell/ predict.

KBecks

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2020, 01:29:59 PM »
Garrett, how is it going with your girlfriend (on the other thread?) I'm sure people would appreciate an update.

Hope you are doing well!

celerystalks

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2020, 02:38:17 PM »
What are you even talking about?
My post is clear.  Maybe you don't follow the markets and politics like some others do so you can ignore this thread.

Thanks, Iíll take the advice.

plog

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2020, 03:47:59 PM »
Quote
Biden won't have the same philosophy of pumping money like the Fed is now.

History says different.  Quantitative easement in the US went from late 2008 to 2015.  That overlaps nicely with Bidens term as VP. 

What are your thoughts?
-->I don't care.

Could we see a big crash following the election?
-->Yes.  The future is a strange unpredictable thing where anything is possible.

Anyone planning on selling just prior to the election?
-->No.  I don't market time.

des999

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2020, 03:59:41 PM »
I think there was a post when Trump got elected.  check that one out.  not sure anyone predicted what happened next.

Garrett B.

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2020, 04:23:50 PM »
Garrett, how is it going with your girlfriend (on the other thread?) I'm sure people would appreciate an update.

Hope you are doing well!
There was too much negativity in that thread so I've taken a break from it. I'll go back there eventually but trying to stay positive.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2020, 06:27:29 PM »
What are your thoughts?

Same thoughts as last election. Do nothing. Ignore the noise. Nobody knows what will happen so there is nothing actionable about the event.

Garrett B.

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2020, 06:44:23 PM »
What are your thoughts?

Same thoughts as last election. Do nothing. Ignore the noise. Nobody knows what will happen so there is nothing actionable about the event.
I'd normally agree but the Fed pumping trillions into the corporate bond markets isn't just "noise".

js82

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2020, 07:26:54 PM »
Both political factions are corporatist to their core. Long term nothing should be all that different.

This, and the fact that unless you get president Biden *AND* a democratic senate you'll just have gridlock that keeps us in the status quo anyways.  I think the odds that one party controls the house/senate/presidency after the next election are pretty low.

But really, it's not like we're going to have president Bernie.  Biden is pretty centrist/corporatist in the grand scheme of things.

matchewed

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2020, 06:07:49 AM »
What are your thoughts?

Same thoughts as last election. Do nothing. Ignore the noise. Nobody knows what will happen so there is nothing actionable about the event.
I'd normally agree but the Fed pumping trillions into the corporate bond markets isn't just "noise".

It is noise, what are the primary and secondary and tertiary consequences of the QE? If you can't answer that with confidence then it's noise. If you can then feel free to risk your money. But consider we went through this before with 2008 and it turned out fine.

waltworks

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2020, 09:37:39 AM »
I'd normally agree but the Fed pumping trillions into the corporate bond markets isn't just "noise".

Neither were lots of other world events over the last hundred years (world wars, pandemics, nuclear weapons, automobiles, the internet, etc, etc) that resulted in:
1: Increases in stock prices
2: Decreases in stock prices
3: No change in stock prices

If you go look at stock price charts and significant world economic/political events, I dare you to find any meaningful pattern. Other than generally up with a lot of volatility.

Today's news is not actionable data for investing. Sorry.

-W

MaaS

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2020, 09:47:46 AM »
A Biden victory reduces the near-term earning power of American business as repealing the corp tax cuts will be high on the agenda. This definitely hurts stocks on a fundamental basis.

Of course, this is not the only factor. This market is primarily being driven by narratives. Perhaps a narrative around stability will take hold and more than offset the tax cut earnings hit?

I have no idea.

P.S. the Fed impact is huge, but this only changes if Biden nominates a new Fed chair with radically different views. He might keep Powell. Who knows.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2020, 11:03:53 AM »
What are your thoughts?

Same thoughts as last election. Do nothing. Ignore the noise. Nobody knows what will happen so there is nothing actionable about the event.
I'd normally agree but the Fed pumping trillions into the corporate bond markets isn't just "noise".
Where did you read that?  I count "$1,294,544,258" in the report from about a week ago that the Fed provided to Congress.  That's $1.3 billion.. not trillion.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/pmccf-smccf-talf-5-29-20.pdf

js82

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2020, 01:05:06 PM »
A Biden victory reduces the near-term earning power of American business as repealing the corp tax cuts will be high on the agenda. This definitely hurts stocks on a fundamental basis.

Of course, this is not the only factor. This market is primarily being driven by narratives. Perhaps a narrative around stability will take hold and more than offset the tax cut earnings hit?

I have no idea.

P.S. the Fed impact is huge, but this only changes if Biden nominates a new Fed chair with radically different views. He might keep Powell. Who knows.

1. A Biden victory is of literally zero consequence for tax policy unless Democrats also win the senate.  I'd argue that legislative gridlock, coupled with current tax policy and the lowered risk of incendiary behavior from the president would be neutral at worst, in this scenario.
2. Hiking corporate taxes is probably less likely than hikes to the top marginal rates for individual earners, in my opinion.  Even Obama favored a corporate tax cut(albeit not as deep as the Republican cuts).  I doubt you'll see a big corporate tax hike, for this and a variety of other reasons (mostly, not wanting to piss off corporate donors).  Hikes to the top individual rates?  Maybe.

Unless you have president Bernie and a left-wing(not merely Democratic) wave in the senate, a lot of these things are pretty unlikely to happen.

facepalm

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2020, 07:38:00 AM »
I think there will be little impact on Wall St, if Biden wins. The corporate tax rate will go unchanged, as will capital gains taxes. You might see the tax rates on top earners go up. Biden will also not interfere with the Fed.

Over time, I do see an attempt might be made to change corporate tax policy. Near term, not so much. At this point in time, I think he  would be more focused on social policy and programs.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2020, 08:03:17 AM »
I remember some news articles after Obama was elected. He was a socialist and the economy was horrible and everyone should get out of stocks, maybe until he was out of office. Then Trump got elected and other people pointed out that he is a narcissist wannabe strongman who has bankrupted most of the companies he has run, so everyone should get out of stocks, maybe until he was out of office.

Both of those takes were wrong, at least as far as the investing advice goes. But maybe this time itís different.

harvestbook

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2020, 11:13:19 AM »
I predict short-term volatility on Election Night. A few hours unreasonably up or down and then futures traders realize the world won't be all that much different in the morning. The rich will still be rich and everyone else will get up and go to work.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2020, 12:02:06 PM »
If Trump loses the results will be contested in some way until at least January. Trump is not a person capable of conceding, no matter the facts. During those months a lot of things could happen to scare the markets. Riots, terror attacks, talk of a coup, arrests of government officials, etc. Be hedged and prepared to rebalance during this time.

If Trump wins, markets may go up in the short term on the certainty of tax cuts, full fledged money printing, and negative interest rates. However they could also go down if by that time the pandemic, (rather than just the response to the pandemic) is having a severe economic impact and people are pissed about the lack of leadership. A side effect of a Trump win might be the splintering of the Democratic Party, which would lock in Republican rule for a generation or more. One-party states like Russia, Turkey, and China donít tend to reward their investors or currency holders in the long term.

Garrett B.

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2020, 01:20:18 PM »
I think there will be little impact on Wall St, if Biden wins. The corporate tax rate will go unchanged, as will capital gains taxes. You might see the tax rates on top earners go up. Biden will also not interfere with the Fed.

Over time, I do see an attempt might be made to change corporate tax policy. Near term, not so much. At this point in time, I think he  would be more focused on social policy and programs.
Corporate tax rate is expected to go up to around 27% under Biden, where it's now 21% under Trump.  Was 35% prior to Trump taking office. 

Garrett B.

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2020, 01:22:10 PM »
If Trump loses the results will be contested in some way until at least January. Trump is not a person capable of conceding, no matter the facts. During those months a lot of things could happen to scare the markets. Riots, terror attacks, talk of a coup, arrests of government officials, etc. Be hedged and prepared to rebalance during this time.

If Trump wins, markets may go up in the short term on the certainty of tax cuts, full fledged money printing, and negative interest rates. However they could also go down if by that time the pandemic, (rather than just the response to the pandemic) is having a severe economic impact and people are pissed about the lack of leadership. A side effect of a Trump win might be the splintering of the Democratic Party, which would lock in Republican rule for a generation or more. One-party states like Russia, Turkey, and China donít tend to reward their investors or currency holders in the long term.
I agree 100% that Trump will contest the election result if he loses. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #25 on: June 09, 2020, 01:23:52 PM »
I agree 100% that Trump will contest the election result if he loses.

He will 100% contest the results if he wins and say he was cheated out of a huge landslide by voter fraud! ;-)

PDXTabs

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #26 on: June 09, 2020, 01:29:13 PM »
What impacts do you see the results of the election having on US equity markets?

What are your thoughts? Could we see a big crash following the election?

The one way that you could easily see equities values driven down would be an increase in the corporate tax rate. To do this you would need majorities in both houses of congress and the presidency. I'm not sure how likely that is.

Garrett B.

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #27 on: June 09, 2020, 01:31:54 PM »
What impacts do you see the results of the election having on US equity markets?

What are your thoughts? Could we see a big crash following the election?

The one way that you could easily see equities values driven down would be an increase in the corporate tax rate. To do this you would need majorities in both houses of congress and the presidency. I'm not sure how likely that is.
I already read Biden is expected to raise the corporate tax rate from its current 21% to 27%. 

PDXTabs

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2020, 02:06:30 PM »
I already read Biden is expected to raise the corporate tax rate from its current 21% to 27%.

I bet that he would like to. He'll need a majority in the Senate.

GuitarStv

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #29 on: June 09, 2020, 04:09:44 PM »
What impacts do you see the results of the election having on US equity markets?

What are your thoughts? Could we see a big crash following the election?

The one way that you could easily see equities values driven down would be an increase in the corporate tax rate. To do this you would need majorities in both houses of congress and the presidency. I'm not sure how likely that is.
I already read Biden is expected to raise the corporate tax rate from its current 21% to 27%.

Higher taxes don't always correlate to low equity values.  Policies enacted with that tax money can actually improve economic output and purchasing in the long term.  There's some evidence that the corporate tax cuts aren't doing what they were expected to do anyway (drive re-investment by corporations).

PDXTabs

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #30 on: June 09, 2020, 04:49:00 PM »
Higher taxes don't always correlate to low equity values.  Policies enacted with that tax money can actually improve economic output and purchasing in the long term.  There's some evidence that the corporate tax cuts aren't doing what they were expected to do anyway (drive re-investment by corporations).

But in the short term they'll effect the E in P/E.

GuitarStv

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #31 on: June 09, 2020, 04:57:40 PM »
Higher taxes don't always correlate to low equity values.  Policies enacted with that tax money can actually improve economic output and purchasing in the long term.  There's some evidence that the corporate tax cuts aren't doing what they were expected to do anyway (drive re-investment by corporations).

But in the short term they'll effect the E in P/E.

Sure.  But the only impact that really should matter to any of us is long term.  Short term nobody knows what's happening with the market.

MaaS

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #32 on: June 09, 2020, 05:58:10 PM »
Higher taxes don't always correlate to low equity values.  Policies enacted with that tax money can actually improve economic output and purchasing in the long term.  There's some evidence that the corporate tax cuts aren't doing what they were expected to do anyway (drive re-investment by corporations).

But in the short term they'll effect the E in P/E.

Sure.  But the only impact that really should matter to any of us is long term.  Short term nobody knows what's happening with the market.

Yes, but, the OP asked if anyone thinks the election will cause a crash in the markets. This feels like a short term question to me.

I also stated that it's possible other narratives could override the downward pressure of (expected) corporate tax rate increases. But, that doesn't change the fact that it's a negative on a near term fundamental basis.


simonsez

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #33 on: June 09, 2020, 07:29:06 PM »
There are some theories that Trump is doing everything possible to prop up markets now because a large part of his election platform is based on the success of the stock market.
Didn't Obama have better S&P500 numbers than Trump?  If you're going to equate a political party with stock market performance (which I do not) - um, Democrats it is then I guess.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2482/sp500-performance-by-president

talltexan

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #34 on: June 10, 2020, 06:50:56 AM »
It's awkward to compare stock markets by President because of the other things that are going on in the broader economy. Since markets move instantly upon election results, it's probably most fair to compare election to election rather than inauguration day to the next.

Personally, I'm horrified by many of the things Trump does--I don't plan to vote for him--but I imagine stocks will soar if he gets re-elected because most traders are probably pricing in a Biden victory at the moment. I don't want to have my money on the sidelines in case that happens.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #35 on: June 10, 2020, 09:35:21 AM »
but I imagine stocks will soar if he gets re-elected because most traders are probably pricing in a Biden victory at the moment.

Or the markets may have priced in the stability Biden would provide and if Trump gets elected the markets could drop in anticipation of 4 years with even more uncertainty and carnage since he won't be worried about elect-ability.

Bottom line everyone has an opinion and a guess....some may even turn out to be right, but nobody knows what will happen.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #36 on: June 10, 2020, 10:05:09 AM »
Higher taxes don't always correlate to low equity values.  Policies enacted with that tax money can actually improve economic output and purchasing in the long term.  There's some evidence that the corporate tax cuts aren't doing what they were expected to do anyway (drive re-investment by corporations).

But in the short term they'll effect the E in P/E.

Sure.  But the only impact that really should matter to any of us is long term.  Short term nobody knows what's happening with the market.

Speaking of the long-term, one way to avoid corporate taxes is to invest more in marketing and R&D instead of dividends and buybacks. To the extent marketing and R&D are what drive revenues in the long run, it might be a good idea to buy stocks from people who are disappointed by reduced PE ratios in the short run. A higher corporate tax rate could actually improve the case for corporations to invest back into business innovation, which is tax deductible, instead of shrinking their workforces and doing buybacks in an effort to hit numbers. Recall that the fastest rates of economic growth and innovation the US ever experienced occurred in the mid-20th century at tax rates that seem outrageous today.

Ants

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #37 on: June 10, 2020, 11:11:00 AM »
I think the biggest result of a Biden victory will be Republicans will suddenly be concerned about the deficit again and any large scale government spending will be stalled by the Senate. Trump has presided over massive spending and deficits that Republicans stalled that were arguably more needed when the recovery was weaker during Obama's administration. I'm assuming that even if the Dems control the House and Senate any funding increases will be filibustered. There will possibly be a government shutdown during the first year or two.

What does all this mean to the market is anyone's guess. Personally I have a perfect track record of getting all predictions wrong.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #38 on: June 10, 2020, 11:59:30 AM »
I think the biggest result of a Biden victory will be Republicans will suddenly be concerned about the deficit again and any large scale government spending will be stalled by the Senate. Trump has presided over massive spending and deficits that Republicans stalled that were arguably more needed when the recovery was weaker during Obama's administration. I'm assuming that even if the Dems control the House and Senate any funding increases will be filibustered. There will possibly be a government shutdown during the first year or two.

What does all this mean to the market is anyone's guess. Personally I have a perfect track record of getting all predictions wrong.

Not sure Iíd want to own an insurance company if Biden wins. I mean, if the House or Senate are Republican-majority, he might try to revive the ACA and give insurance companies a profitable place to play but the mood among Democrats is to kill off all the corporate parasites and go Medicare for all.

Of course, insurers and reinsurers will be hit hard by the pandemic too. Life insurance will not be profitable in a year with a few hundred thousand unplanned deaths.

UnleashHell

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #39 on: June 10, 2020, 12:04:54 PM »
I think the biggest result of a Biden victory will be Republicans will suddenly be concerned about the deficit again and any large scale government spending will be stalled by the Senate. Trump has presided over massive spending and deficits that Republicans stalled that were arguably more needed when the recovery was weaker during Obama's administration. I'm assuming that even if the Dems control the House and Senate any funding increases will be filibustered. There will possibly be a government shutdown during the first year or two.

What does all this mean to the market is anyone's guess. Personally I have a perfect track record of getting all predictions wrong.

Not sure Iíd want to own an insurance company if Biden wins. I mean, if the House or Senate are Republican-majority, he might try to revive the ACA and give insurance companies a profitable place to play but the mood among Democrats is to kill off all the corporate parasites and go Medicare for all.

Of course, insurers and reinsurers will be hit hard by the pandemic too. Life insurance will not be profitable in a year with a few hundred thousand unplanned deaths.

you might be right with the health insurance  - that could be a miserable place to be invested for a while. however the life is fine. If you look at the people who are dying its those who are older - less likely to have large policies  and more likely to have held them for years - they are profitable by now anyway.
It takes a lot of small policies to make up for one large Kobe Bryant Death (as an example).

Additionally any life insurance who also does annuities will see those books balance each other out.

js82

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #40 on: June 10, 2020, 08:21:54 PM »
It's awkward to compare stock markets by President because of the other things that are going on in the broader economy. Since markets move instantly upon election results, it's probably most fair to compare election to election rather than inauguration day to the next.

Personally, I'm horrified by many of the things Trump does--I don't plan to vote for him--but I imagine stocks will soar if he gets re-elected because most traders are probably pricing in a Biden victory at the moment. I don't want to have my money on the sidelines in case that happens.

At this point, the only scenarios which differ materially from the others are if one party controls the house, senate, and the White House.  If Democrats control the House and Republicans control the senate, President primarily impacts how things play out with regards to the Supreme Court.   A divided government means the status quo for fiscal policy.    And even if the Democrats manage to take the Senate, it would be by a razor-thin margin, and there are enough centrists in the Democratic coalition to stop any substantial tax hikes.

I'd go so far as to say that a Republican sweep is the only scenario that is likely to differ substantially from the others when it comes to economic policy - and it's a relatively low-probability event from where we are right now.

Tyler durden

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #41 on: June 10, 2020, 08:51:34 PM »
If Trump loses the results will be contested in some way until at least January. Trump is not a person capable of conceding, no matter the facts. During those months a lot of things could happen to scare the markets. Riots, terror attacks, talk of a coup, arrests of government officials, etc. Be hedged and prepared to rebalance during this time.

If Trump wins, markets may go up in the short term on the certainty of tax cuts, full fledged money printing, and negative interest rates. However they could also go down if by that time the pandemic, (rather than just the response to the pandemic) is having a severe economic impact and people are pissed about the lack of leadership. A side effect of a Trump win might be the splintering of the Democratic Party, which would lock in Republican rule for a generation or more. One-party states like Russia, Turkey, and China donít tend to reward their investors or currency holders in the long term.

We just lived through 2 plus years of a large portion of the US populace under the false belief that Russia stole the election for trump and not just accepting the results. I saw a poll awhile back and it was remarkable how many people think votes got tampered with by Russians for trump. Or the general whining about the electoral college by the most recent presidential loser, Hilary.

Come on man, people not accepting election results is nothing new. Jill Steins recount efforts in 2016 ?

If trump loses he whines about voter fraud for a month, biden is sworn in and we get on with a new president.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #42 on: June 10, 2020, 10:14:33 PM »
If Trump loses the results will be contested in some way until at least January. Trump is not a person capable of conceding, no matter the facts. During those months a lot of things could happen to scare the markets. Riots, terror attacks, talk of a coup, arrests of government officials, etc. Be hedged and prepared to rebalance during this time.

If Trump wins, markets may go up in the short term on the certainty of tax cuts, full fledged money printing, and negative interest rates. However they could also go down if by that time the pandemic, (rather than just the response to the pandemic) is having a severe economic impact and people are pissed about the lack of leadership. A side effect of a Trump win might be the splintering of the Democratic Party, which would lock in Republican rule for a generation or more. One-party states like Russia, Turkey, and China donít tend to reward their investors or currency holders in the long term.

We just lived through 2 plus years of a large portion of the US populace under the false belief that Russia stole the election for trump and not just accepting the results. I saw a poll awhile back and it was remarkable how many people think votes got tampered with by Russians for trump. Or the general whining about the electoral college by the most recent presidential loser, Hilary.

Come on man, people not accepting election results is nothing new. Jill Steins recount efforts in 2016 ?

If trump loses he whines about voter fraud for a month, biden is sworn in and we get on with a new president.

Yea but Trump's supporters have guns.

Tyler durden

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #43 on: June 11, 2020, 05:39:21 AM »
I remember some news articles after Obama was elected. He was a socialist and the economy was horrible and everyone should get out of stocks, maybe until he was out of office. Then Trump got elected and other people pointed out that he is a narcissist wannabe strongman who has bankrupted most of the companies he has run, so everyone should get out of stocks, maybe until he was out of office.

Both of those takes were wrong, at least as far as the investing advice goes. But maybe this time itís different.

+100

This is a nice thought experiment about what may happen but please donít time the market. Making decisions on emotion even if you get it right is luck. Your not being rationale when you sell based on politics and you wonít be rationale trying to get back into the market either. Stay disciplined.

Tyler durden

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #44 on: June 11, 2020, 05:42:59 AM »
If Trump loses the results will be contested in some way until at least January. Trump is not a person capable of conceding, no matter the facts. During those months a lot of things could happen to scare the markets. Riots, terror attacks, talk of a coup, arrests of government officials, etc. Be hedged and prepared to rebalance during this time.

If Trump wins, markets may go up in the short term on the certainty of tax cuts, full fledged money printing, and negative interest rates. However they could also go down if by that time the pandemic, (rather than just the response to the pandemic) is having a severe economic impact and people are pissed about the lack of leadership. A side effect of a Trump win might be the splintering of the Democratic Party, which would lock in Republican rule for a generation or more. One-party states like Russia, Turkey, and China donít tend to reward their investors or currency holders in the long term.

We just lived through 2 plus years of a large portion of the US populace under the false belief that Russia stole the election for trump and not just accepting the results. I saw a poll awhile back and it was remarkable how many people think votes got tampered with by Russians for trump. Or the general whining about the electoral college by the most recent presidential loser, Hilary.

Come on man, people not accepting election results is nothing new. Jill Steins recount efforts in 2016 ?

If trump loses he whines about voter fraud for a month, biden is sworn in and we get on with a new president.

Yea but Trump's supporters have guns.

Lol. I assume thatís a joke right ? Look back at the riots, oops I mean marches after Hilary lost in 2016. My eyes tell me itís mostly one group that acts out and smashes windows and burns buildings after elections. I chalk it up to more like a 5 year old having a temper tantrum than actual violence so I think weíll all be ok. 

GuitarStv

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #45 on: June 11, 2020, 08:55:24 AM »
In a democracy, I'd argue that it's understandable for a little frustration when more people in a country voted for a candidate, and the person with the fewest votes wins.

My understanding of the protests that were held after Trump's election though, is that they were peaceful.  Can you provide some articles that show rioting, burning buildings, and smashing windows by Clinton supporters after Trump winning the electoral college?

Tyler durden

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #46 on: June 11, 2020, 09:52:16 AM »
In a democracy, I'd argue that it's understandable for a little frustration when more people in a country voted for a candidate, and the person with the fewest votes wins.

My understanding of the protests that were held after Trump's election though, is that they were peaceful.  Can you provide some articles that show rioting, burning buildings, and smashing windows by Clinton supporters after Trump winning the electoral college?

The headline couldnít be better - ďNot our president: Protests spread after Donald Trumps Election ď

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/trump-election-protests.amp.html

Second paragraph in they get to the rioting / fires and broken windows. Also goes on to talk about property damage and personal injury.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/anti-trump-protests-turn-violent-161111090846256.html

Another one for another news paper.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #47 on: June 11, 2020, 11:20:21 AM »
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/anti-trump-protests-turn-violent-161111090846256.html
"Many in the crowd are trying to get anarchist groups to stop destroying property, anarchists refusing. Others encouraged to leave area," the department said on Twitter after declaring the demonstration a riot."

GuitarStv

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #48 on: June 11, 2020, 11:50:31 AM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/trump-election-protests.html
Quote
Thousands of people across the country marched, shut down highways, burned effigies and shouted angry slogans on Wednesday night to protest the election of Donald J. Trump as president.

The demonstrations, fueled by social media, continued into the early hours of Thursday. The crowds swelled as the night went on but remained mostly peaceful.



Burning an effigy or flag is a protected form of free speech in the US, and a far cry from the claimed 'burning buildings'.

waltworks

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Re: Impact of US election on stock market?
« Reply #49 on: June 11, 2020, 12:00:47 PM »
Assholes on the left and assholes on the right act out in different stupid ways, but they both have a long history of acting out stupidly, as you'd expect of assholes. Some of them burn buildings and cop cars and smash up Target, some of them take over wildlife refuges at gunpoint, or refuse to pay their range fees on public land and have armed standoffs with the Feds, or run people over with their car.

Assholes gonna asshole.

That means zero about the mainstream of either major party, though I'm not entirely sure what's left of the mainstream Republican party except liking Trump. There's not much talk about free trade, limited government (as if!), or financial responsiblity/fiscal restraint. Let alone action.

You could make the same point about Democrats (united mostly by disliking Trump) but they've always been much less monolithic than the modern Republican party so a lot of philosophical inconsistency and give-and-take policy is sort of expected.

-W
« Last Edit: June 11, 2020, 02:07:44 PM by waltworks »