Author Topic: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?  (Read 5134 times)

ePalmtrees

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How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« on: March 19, 2018, 11:08:05 AM »
Not necessarily trying to time the market, but I like to look ahead and think about what might be coming, especially since the consensus is that the market is high and what naturally follows in the economic cycle is a recession.

The media is reporting that Mueller's already built an obstruction of justice case and may be only be waiting to make it even stronger before bringing it forward.

I'm wondering what effect you think it would have on the stock market if Trump was impeached?

Or what odds you think he's got of serving a full term (or two)?

Tass

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2018, 11:18:09 AM »
In the long term, I don't think he has much effect at all. I doubt his impeachment would cause more instability than his presidency has, and even if there was a drop, that's not enough to cause a full recession.

That said, he better not get a second term.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2018, 11:24:56 AM »
The last time a president was impeached, the Dow Jones rose about 12% in the year that followed.

Jrr85

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2018, 11:48:54 AM »
Not necessarily trying to time the market, but I like to look ahead and think about what might be coming, especially since the consensus is that the market is high and what naturally follows in the economic cycle is a recession.

The media is reporting that Mueller's already built an obstruction of justice case and may be only be waiting to make it even stronger before bringing it forward.

I'm wondering what effect you think it would have on the stock market if Trump was impeached?

Or what odds you think he's got of serving a full term (or two)?

If he is impeached on a non-partisan line  vote?  Basically none.  While his administration, particularly the EPA, has done some real streamlining that is a net positive for businesses, I'm not sure how much of that is really priced in yet, and if he's impeached I don't think the market will view Pence as a big change. 

If he impeached on a partisan line vote, the fact that democrats had enough votes to impeach could have a pretty bad negative effect.  Just depends on what they're willing to do with respect to that recent tax cuts and assuming that means it's very likely a Dem candidate wins in 2020, how the market will view their likely regulatory agenda. 

Eric

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2018, 12:08:38 PM »
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud.  War is not good for business.  Him getting impeached could have a short term effect, but that's less worrisome. 

branman42

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2018, 12:24:07 PM »
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud.  War is not good for business.


War generally is good for business...       

Literally the biggest economic draw down in U.S. history was fixed in large part because of increased spending on World War 2

YttriumNitrate

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2018, 12:43:33 PM »
War generally is good for business...       

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #34: War is good for business.
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #35: Peace is good for business.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 12:46:33 PM by YttriumNitrate »

Eric

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2018, 12:46:11 PM »
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud.  War is not good for business.


War generally is good for business...       

Literally the biggest economic draw down in U.S. history was fixed in large part because of increased spending on World War 2

So let's start WW3 to jump start the economy?  I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there.


Travis

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2018, 01:39:01 PM »
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud.  War is not good for business.


War generally is good for business...       

Literally the biggest economic draw down in U.S. history was fixed in large part because of increased spending on World War 2

It's great if you're selling stuff for the war.  If you're on the peacetime side of the economy it can suck with resources being taken away from you.  That brief depression after WWII was followed by a rather significant period of prosperity once everybody was back home, building homes, going to school on the GI Bill, and getting on with their lives.  Generally speaking, the most expensive way to procure a good/service is to have the government do it during a time of war unless there are price controls involved.

To the OP, the biggest thing the President can have an effect on is changes to taxes/tariffs/rules that he can alter using executive orders or directing a cabinet department to do something.  This steel decision he made a couple weeks ago had an immediate impact on the market. His political/legal comings and goings don't seem to matter nearly as much.

ChpBstrd

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2018, 09:08:16 PM »
The underlying problem with calculating the effect of political changes on the stock market is the idea that some predictable narrative will have a positive or negative effect.

Once you have accepted the idea that stock returns occur due to a particular story playing out, the next thing that happens is you decide that some narratives are more likely than others. Then you decide some are more likely than others in the short term. Next thing you know, you're either market timing based on the news or sitting in CDs for the next 10 years because the media will write scary narratives for the next 10 years. The whole narrative-guessing process is inherently rife with psychological bias.

Actually, stock returns are based on the opinions of millions of people about the most likely distributions of corporate cash flows. This is repulsively boring, but you know it's true.

maizeman

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2018, 09:51:56 PM »
War generally is good for business...       

Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #34: War is good for business.
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #35: Peace is good for business.

When it comes to nuclear wars, perhaps the most relevant Rule of Acquisition is #125: You can't make a deal if you're dead.

terran

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2018, 09:54:21 PM »
The problem with trying to time the market with things like this is that if you think you'll be successful you're saying that you (or a group of internet strangers on this forum) knows something the rest of the (investing) world does not. If do do have knowledge of what will happen in the future, then by all means invest based on that knowledge, but if the rest of the world knows at least as much as you do -- and given that this is some people's whole job, there are probably some people better informed than you are -- then the probabilities that any particular even will come to pass should already be accounted for in the markets. That's the theory anyway.

SwordGuy

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2018, 10:46:03 PM »
...That brief depression after WWII was followed by a rather significant period of prosperity once everybody was back home, building homes, going to school on the GI Bill, and getting on with their lives.  Generally speaking, the most expensive way to procure a good/service is to have the government do it during a time of war unless there are price controls involved...

The fact that the manufacturing economies of France, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Italy, China, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and French Indochina were in complete disarray, and the UK was broke, had one heck of a lot to do with our post-WWII manufacturing prosperity.   And, don't forget, we also had the Korean war and the military-industrial complex pumping in dollars to the war economy sector, too.   

El_Viajero

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2018, 07:05:18 AM »
Someone posted this image in some thread in some corner of the MMM forum at some point. I saved it. I think it lends perspective to your question:

https://imgur.com/a/ntVYf

Answer: Trump's chaotic presidency and potential impeachment will have some effect(s) on the market, whether positive or negative. Over the long haul, the effect(s) will be negligible.

That being said, we really ought to have a different president for reasons that have nothing to do with market performance.

harvestbook

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2018, 07:59:10 AM »
Even if you knew what would happen ahead of time, it's impossible to predict how the market will react (as well as the thousands of other moving pieces.) And whatever does happen will likely be mollified pretty rapidly--just like the Brexit and Trump-election flash crashes where the "end of the world" lasted hours rather than years.

I wouldn't be surprised if FB is back to all-time highs in a week. FB would still suck, but it doesn't matter what I think. So I am not going to make any bets on what a serial liar is going to say or do.

trollwithamustache

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2018, 08:43:56 AM »
It will be interesting to see. The tax plan is a pretty big change. It may end up being good for the economy as measured by the stock market, but near term its creating a lot of uncertainty, which is bad for the stock market.

toganet

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2018, 09:40:47 AM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

ePalmtrees

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2018, 10:27:34 AM »
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.

boarder42

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2018, 10:33:01 AM »
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.

the president doesnt really directly effect the stock market.  you can come up with dozens of reasons for why the stock market did or does what it did.  who really cares though b/c no one can really predict it.

wenchsenior

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2018, 10:57:29 AM »
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.

the president doesnt really directly effect the stock market.  you can come up with dozens of reasons for why the stock market did or does what it did.  who really cares though b/c no one can really predict it.

Yeah, the stock market 'really took off' in March of 2009 and has been 'taking off' ever since.  Which is pretty much what you'd expect in a market mostly affected by recessions, and little affected by all other world events.

trollwithamustache

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2018, 12:11:14 PM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.

Telecaster

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2018, 12:25:08 PM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy. 


Eric

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2018, 12:56:16 PM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I think it's pretty obvious that it's terrible public policy.  But hey, at least that one lady can now pay for her Costco membership.  Who needs SS or Medicare when there's Costco?

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/372165-ryan-slammed-for-tweet-on-gop-tax-bill


Jrr85

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2018, 01:09:08 PM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

It's not good policy, but neither was the status quo.  We're not going to meet our Social Security and Medicare obligations as they are now structured with or without the tax cut, and I'm not sure the additional deficit is going to make the adjustments meaningfully more painful when we finally have to face them.


trollwithamustache

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2018, 08:54:44 AM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.

appleshampooid

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #25 on: March 21, 2018, 10:41:35 AM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.
debt != deficit

The deficit is how much the government overspends revenue ever year. So the yearly deficits can be trending down, with an ever-increasing debt.

(I don't have any data for you but I suspect this is the confusion at play.)

Telecaster

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #26 on: March 21, 2018, 10:54:00 AM »

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.

Note that I said the deficits had been trending down.  That is, the amount of money the government borrows each year.  The total amount borrowed of course is going up.  Anyway, here are the data:

Year   Deficit
2009   -1,412,688
2010   -1,294,373
2011   -1,299,599
2012   -1,086,955
2013   -679,542
2014   -484,600
2015   -438,496
2016   -584,651
2017   -665,372

There has been an uptick the last couple years, but overall deficits are down quite dramatically from the depths of the recession.   However, with the new tax cut law, deficits will skyrocket back above $1 trillion/year.  While there is a benefit to the government injecting money into the economy like that, it comes with a price.  We have to pay interest on all that borrowing.  That ultimately means higher taxes or cuts in services.  Or most likely both.   IMO, keeping the deficits in check now would be much better public policy than exploding the deficits now and kicking the problem down the road.  But I don't make the rules. 

All data from here:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/

bob999

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2018, 03:43:02 AM »
Not necessarily trying to time the market, but I like to look ahead and think about what might be coming, especially since the consensus is that the market is high and what naturally follows in the economic cycle is a recession.

The media is reporting that Mueller's already built an obstruction of justice case and may be only be waiting to make it even stronger before bringing it forward.

I'm wondering what effect you think it would have on the stock market if Trump was impeached?

Or what odds you think he's got of serving a full term (or two)?

in the long run 0%.


trollwithamustache

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2018, 08:25:28 AM »

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.

Note that I said the deficits had been trending down.  That is, the amount of money the government borrows each year.  The total amount borrowed of course is going up.  Anyway, here are the data:

Year   Deficit
2009   -1,412,688
2010   -1,294,373
2011   -1,299,599
2012   -1,086,955
2013   -679,542
2014   -484,600
2015   -438,496
2016   -584,651
2017   -665,372

There has been an uptick the last couple years, but overall deficits are down quite dramatically from the depths of the recession.   However, with the new tax cut law, deficits will skyrocket back above $1 trillion/year.  While there is a benefit to the government injecting money into the economy like that, it comes with a price.  We have to pay interest on all that borrowing.  That ultimately means higher taxes or cuts in services.  Or most likely both.   IMO, keeping the deficits in check now would be much better public policy than exploding the deficits now and kicking the problem down the road.  But I don't make the rules. 

All data from here:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/

since the discussion must be about deficits, we have already been defeated.

Tass

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2018, 08:58:53 AM »

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.

Note that I said the deficits had been trending down.  That is, the amount of money the government borrows each year.  The total amount borrowed of course is going up.  Anyway, here are the data:

Year   Deficit
2009   -1,412,688
2010   -1,294,373
2011   -1,299,599
2012   -1,086,955
2013   -679,542
2014   -484,600
2015   -438,496
2016   -584,651
2017   -665,372

There has been an uptick the last couple years, but overall deficits are down quite dramatically from the depths of the recession.   However, with the new tax cut law, deficits will skyrocket back above $1 trillion/year.  While there is a benefit to the government injecting money into the economy like that, it comes with a price.  We have to pay interest on all that borrowing.  That ultimately means higher taxes or cuts in services.  Or most likely both.   IMO, keeping the deficits in check now would be much better public policy than exploding the deficits now and kicking the problem down the road.  But I don't make the rules. 

All data from here:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/

since the discussion must be about deficits, we have already been defeated.

That's a valid point of view, but it's still inaccurate to pretend all administrations have been equally bad on this front. The debt is now getting bigger faster than it has in a long time, especially if you compare against periods with similar economic health.

trollwithamustache

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #30 on: March 26, 2018, 10:41:33 AM »

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.

Note that I said the deficits had been trending down.  That is, the amount of money the government borrows each year.  The total amount borrowed of course is going up.  Anyway, here are the data:

Year   Deficit
2009   -1,412,688
2010   -1,294,373
2011   -1,299,599
2012   -1,086,955
2013   -679,542
2014   -484,600
2015   -438,496
2016   -584,651
2017   -665,372

There has been an uptick the last couple years, but overall deficits are down quite dramatically from the depths of the recession.   However, with the new tax cut law, deficits will skyrocket back above $1 trillion/year.  While there is a benefit to the government injecting money into the economy like that, it comes with a price.  We have to pay interest on all that borrowing.  That ultimately means higher taxes or cuts in services.  Or most likely both.   IMO, keeping the deficits in check now would be much better public policy than exploding the deficits now and kicking the problem down the road.  But I don't make the rules. 

All data from here:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/

since the discussion must be about deficits, we have already been defeated.

That's a valid point of view, but it's still inaccurate to pretend all administrations have been equally bad on this front. The debt is now getting bigger faster than it has in a long time, especially if you compare against periods with similar economic health.

Bill Clinton was our last fiscally responsible president... things I never thought I'd say in my republican youth!

ChpBstrd

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #31 on: March 26, 2018, 03:58:55 PM »
Tariffs are dumb policy. We should have learned our lesson during the great depression.

Other than the tax bill, Trump was generally inactive in economic affairs in 2017. I think markets had priced in the expectation he would coast through his term and spend his time golfing amd tweeting. In 2018, however, he became obsessed with tariffs. Now he seems to be a loose cannon, and the markets are reacting accordingly.

toganet

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #32 on: March 27, 2018, 09:02:28 AM »
This OpEd piece speaks to this question somewhat: https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/us-economy/201803262346MRKTWTCHNEWS_SVC000510?srcIndex=1

Quote
After Mr. Trump was elected, the stock market rose, fell, then rose again, along with the prospects for corporate-tax cuts. This was the sort of uncertainty investors like: Something good might happen. It wasn't clear whether Mr. Trump's policies would make it through Congress, but if they did it would surely help stocks.

The uncertainty today is whether something bad will happen. If Mr. Trump is serious about trashing the global trading system, there are few places for investors to hide. Stocks will suffer, the economy will slow and inflation will pick up.
...
We have switched from an era of uncertainty about policy helping the markets to one of uncertainty about policy hurting.

talltexan

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2018, 02:56:28 PM »
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.

well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.

The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years.  The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit.  I don't think this is good public policy.

I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.

What makes you say this, exactly? The Left's man participated in the sequester in 2011, a series of budget cuts that still applied at the end of his second term. The Right's man signed into law a massive tax cut that will require 4% annual real GDP growth to have a hope of coming out even on the long-term budget. They don't really seem equivalent to me.

RangerOne

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2018, 03:01:56 PM »
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud.  War is not good for business.


War generally is good for business...       

Literally the biggest economic draw down in U.S. history was fixed in large part because of increased spending on World War 2

I don't believe any war after world war 2 was good for our economy. But I am no historian so I could be wrong.

RangerOne

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #35 on: March 27, 2018, 03:10:08 PM »
The only impact I can see this president having in the short term is if a trade war spirals out of control and it is completely unclear, at least to me, how bad it would have to get to hurt an industry enough to cause a recession.

Most of the weakness already baked into to our possible credit bubbles and the quantitative unwind going on is completely detached from the Presidency or even most of the government outside of the Fed.

I suppose its always possible removal of regulations or lack of enforcement could encourage the return of old forms of shading lending leading to new bubbles. But none of that has likely become sever enough to even be a factor.

Stachless

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #36 on: March 27, 2018, 03:47:42 PM »
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.

the president doesnt really directly effect the stock market.  you can come up with dozens of reasons for why the stock market did or does what it did.  who really cares though b/c no one can really predict it.


I believe our current Commander-In-Chief *did* directly affect the stock market by slashing the top tax rate from 35% to 21%.   Stocks do trade on P/E multiples, no?

Travis

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #37 on: March 27, 2018, 05:24:45 PM »
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.

the president doesnt really directly effect the stock market.  you can come up with dozens of reasons for why the stock market did or does what it did.  who really cares though b/c no one can really predict it.

I believe our current Commander-In-Chief *did* directly affect the stock market by slashing the top tax rate from 35% to 21%.   Stocks do trade on P/E multiples, no?

Technically he didn't cut taxes - Congress did. It was at his urging and his original design, but ultimately it was their decision.  The same argument can be made of who (left or right) did a better job with deficits.  Was it the president? Congress? If so, who was in the majority calling most of the shots?  Did the decision have an immediate impact or was it felt during the next term? Or two terms later?

ChpBstrd

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #38 on: March 27, 2018, 10:04:46 PM »
Rephrasing the question:

Knowing exactly what you know today, if the U.S. entered a 2008-all-over-again scenario, would you be confident in Mr. Trump's ability to prevent a second great depression? Would you place big bets on another "V" shaped recovery with him at the helm, tweeting about tariffs and blaming illegal immigrants?

If not, it's a lot more tempting to reduce your portfolio risk is it not? And what if hundreds of millions of market participants are thinking the same thing, right now?

hadabeardonce

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #39 on: March 27, 2018, 10:21:38 PM »
How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
If he's selling shares to pay women to keep quiet, it would have to be a huge volume to affect the market.

;)

Stachless

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #40 on: March 27, 2018, 10:28:31 PM »
I believe all (or at least most) of the tariffs are merely tools in Trump's negotiations.  What good is it being the world's only superpower/economic engine if you're not going to throw your weight around a little bit?

I'd be shocked and disappointed if the net result on all this isn't much better trade deals (for the USA) throughout the world.  Perhaps a bit of heartburn along the way, but a huge net positive when all is said and done.

Now, while I appreciate Trump as a negotiator (far more so than any of his recent predecessors), I am worried that he plans to inflate us out of our national debt.  This guy has had maybe 6 companies declare Bankruptcy, and the reason to load up on a ton more debt right now (which we are doing) is the 'logical' thing to do if you only intend to pay it back with much less valuable dollars. 

 

toganet

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Re: How much of stock market is tied to Trump?
« Reply #41 on: March 28, 2018, 10:20:48 AM »
Now, while I appreciate Trump as a negotiator (far more so than any of his recent predecessors), I am worried that he plans to inflate us out of our national debt.  This guy has had maybe 6 companies declare Bankruptcy, and the reason to load up on a ton more debt right now (which we are doing) is the 'logical' thing to do if you only intend to pay it back with much less valuable dollars. 

 
^^^ I fully expect Trump to put forth policies that will lead to inflation.  It's good for him, and that's what he cares about.  As to whether he can get those policies implemented ... I'm less worried as I hold a different opinion on his actual negotiation skill.  Ultimately, the outcome is what will matter, and it's too soon to tell what that will be.