The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: Cannot Wait! on November 03, 2016, 08:47:30 AM
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Understand that timing the market is silly - but the date is sooooh close.
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Put it in TODAY in the Golden butterfly allocation. One or two of the five chunks will look really great next week, and you'll feel really smart.
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I am doing like this. Since I can't time the market, I am splitting my investment in 2, I invest half before, and half after.
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Invest today, nobody knows if markets will be up or down next week anyway!
Make sure to have at least 30-50% international allocation. This usually smooth the currency variations, thus your portfolio.
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Did you make a decision!? Excited to see which was the 'right' choice.
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I've moved the funds over but I'm waiting to see the results of the election. From what I googled, we might expect to see a V (dip) and I hope to jump in at/close to the bottom...
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Maybe the "bottom" was on last friday!
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I guess it comes down to whether you trust the media narrative that Hillary is going to win. Clearly the media outlets conducting these polls want Hillary to win so it's really hard to trust what they are saying. ABC already admitted that they massaged their poll to include more minorities.
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I guess it comes down to whether you trust the media narrative that Hillary is going to win. Clearly the media outlets conducting these polls want Hillary to win so it's really hard to trust what they are saying. ABC already admitted that they massaged their poll to include more minorities.
That might be so, but it's not clear to what what lying in polls would do to help Hillary? Wouldn't positive polls make people more complacent? Of course, one could probably argue bad polls could also make people complacent. So do they matter either way?
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I am waiting to see what happens after the election as I have a little chunk sitting in my vanguard federal money market account that I need to move to ETFs.
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I made my monthly investment late last week.
I am up $252!
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If you believe in efficient markets, the market is pricing in the probability of each candidate winning the election. If Hilary wins, markets will increase in value. If Trump wins, markets will decrease in value. I would just invest now, and vote Hilary tomorrow (but you should be doing that anyway).
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I feel your pain.
I'm buying a house with Vanguard holdings so I put in the order to sell $100,000 worth Sunday night.
It will sell today or tomorrow (election day).
I've been dreading that it would plummet today or tomorrow.
Looks like everything went up today! :) Hopefully it will go up tomorrow also, if that's the day the price is determined.
I'm just hoping that after the sale goes thru I don't REALLY feel your pain!
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Pure opinion here, and also not a US resident, but ...
I'd wait until the day after. It seems like the world will end no matter who wins, which will likely meaner a cheaper buy-in :)
I tend to agree with Bill Burr, who in his last podcast said the best thing you can say about Trump is he's not Clinton, and that the best thing to say about Clinton is that she's not Trump hehe
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In any case, I hope you all get out and vote tomorrow!
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hahhahahahha
I'd been waiting these last 3 weeks expecting to buy late Monday the 7th (expected low)
When the FBI cleared recent emails this weekend I put in a buy order for market open on Monday because it seemed clear that that would make a HRC win a certainty ( markets like certainty).
Prices soared right past my limit buy, haha it just really is a silly game trying to time it, especially when we are doing math over 20 or 50 year time periods......
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I guess it comes down to whether you trust the media narrative that Hillary is going to win. Clearly the media outlets conducting these polls want Hillary to win so it's really hard to trust what they are saying. ABC already admitted that they massaged their poll to include more minorities.
Polling averages have shown HRC leading for months. Tomorrow we'll see if the polls are "clearly" wrong as you say. Or if the data thus presented are correct. Either way, there is a clear record of what they have been saying.
I'll go on record today on election eve as saying HRC will win by a comfortable margin, but less than Obama in 2012 because that's what the polls say will happen.
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I am generally fully invested so didn't have a big chunk to drop into the market but had about $2.5K in cash sitting in my brokerage account. When I saw the markets being down again on Friday, I put in a buy order right before the markets close.
For once, I did something right :-) Never mind, I clearly had no clue what I was doing...
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The polls are biased, Romney has this one in the bag.
Wait, what were we talking about?
Too late now, but I would have just put the money in.
-W
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I am generally fully invested so didn't have a big chunk to drop into the market but had about $2.5K in cash sitting in my brokerage account. When I saw the markets being down again on Friday, I put in a buy order right before the markets close. For once, I did something right :-)
I am still chasing that brass ring. Congrats to you!
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Well this is "interesting". Looks like the market will tank tomorrow. Dang I was wrong, then wrong again, maybe 3 times wrong.
Great lessons against market timing going on.
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It will tank tomorrow - but then will it keep tanking???
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I guess it comes down to whether you trust the media narrative that Hillary is going to win. Clearly the media outlets conducting these polls want Hillary to win so it's really hard to trust what they are saying. ABC already admitted that they massaged their poll to include more minorities.
Polling averages have shown HRC leading for months. Tomorrow we'll see if the polls are "clearly" wrong as you say. Or if the data thus presented are correct. Either way, there is a clear record of what they have been saying.
I'll go on record today on election eve as saying HRC will win by a comfortable margin, but less than Obama in 2012 because that's what the polls say will happen.
Well, so far this is one less person that I will take investment advice from.
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It will tank tomorrow - but then will it keep tanking???
This is a very good question... Ours tanked, then recovered half. Still finished down 2%.
I bought in at the close, but I suspect the 'fall' will play out over several months. Trump doesn't take power until Jan 20, that's when the real fun will begin.
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Maybe the "bottom" was on last friday!
Hahahaha! Look how wrong you were!
I'll go on record today on election eve as saying HRC will win by a comfortable margin, but less than Obama in 2012 because that's what the polls say will happen.
Hahhahah! Look how wrong you were!
Omg, I feel ill.
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Lol. It's OK buy buy buy.
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I am generally fully invested so didn't have a big chunk to drop into the market but had about $2.5K in cash sitting in my brokerage account. When I saw the markets being down again on Friday, I put in a buy order right before the markets close. For once, I did something right :-)
I am still chasing that brass ring. Congrats to you!
Never mind - see my edit above :-(
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Lol. It's OK buy buy buy.
Assuming you don't think it will keep going lower. Maybe the date to buy will actually be after the inauguration? Maybe we are going to be the next Japan and not recover for a very very long time.
Timing the market is silly.
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Lol. It's OK buy buy buy.
Assuming you don't think it will keep going lower. Maybe the date to buy will actually be after the inauguration? Maybe we are going to be the next Japan and not recover for a very very long time.
Timing the market is silly.
sol, hope I am wrong again but this scenario is more likely to happen now. Markets may rebound, or not...
For the record, I never time the markets. I prefer to stay the course at 100% equities
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I feel your pain.
I'm buying a house with Vanguard holdings so I put in the order to sell $100,000 worth Sunday night.
I'm also planning to buy a house, so I considered selling some positions before the election as well. In the end, I did not. I only have about $18,000 of my down-payment in stocks at the moment, and it appears the markets have recovered somewhat from the early shakeup, so maybe it wasn't a terrible decision to remain invested. It will probably be a few months before we need the money anyway.
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I feel your pain.
I'm buying a house with Vanguard holdings so I put in the order to sell $100,000 worth Sunday night.
I'm also planning to buy a house, so I considered selling some positions before the election as well. In the end, I did not. I only have about $18,000 of my down-payment in stocks at the moment, and it appears the markets have recovered somewhat from the early shakeup, so maybe it wasn't a terrible decision to remain invested. It will probably be a few months before we need the money anyway.
Well, so far the US markets are actually up. Not sure what to think anymore. I was planning to stay fully invested anyway, but this is just weird.
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Time for me to go on record to say: I was totally wrong! And snarkily wrong! Talk about egg on my face... Romney, hah.
The polls were either "biased" or just not right.
I have no idea what to make of the ~5% drop in the futures market leading to... negligible change in the morning.
-W
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Time for me to go on record to say: I was totally wrong! And snarkily wrong! Talk about egg on my face... Romney, hah.
The polls were either "biased" or just not right.
I have no idea what to make of the ~5% drop in the futures market leading to... negligible change in the morning.
-W
followed by a ROARING rally. I didn't time anything but increased my contributions trying to max out what's left of the 403B and trad IRA's about a month ago. All of those purchases are looking great :D.
The future is uncertain, don't worry about it until it arrives (but of course save save and save so you can enjoy it!)
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Time for me to go on record to say: I was totally wrong! And snarkily wrong! Talk about egg on my face... Romney, hah.
The polls were either "biased" or just not right.
I have no idea what to make of the ~5% drop in the futures market leading to... negligible change in the morning.
-W
followed by a ROARING rally. I didn't time anything but increased my contributions trying to max out what's left of the 403B and trad IRA's about a month ago. All of those purchases are looking great :D.
The future is uncertain, don't worry about it until it arrives (but of course save save and save so you can enjoy it!)
Everyone had the same idea - it will crash therefore it's a good buying opportunity, therefore I'll add to demand, therefore stocks went up?
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Can we save this thread for non-market timing posterity? Market now up 1% after futures plummeted last night. After 10 days of drops before the election when it looked like Trump might have a chance, then a 2% jump on Monday when it looked like not so much.
Market timing is officially tough!
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The correct answer to this thread question was apparently "invest during the vote counting when markets plummet 5%, but not earlier that day or the following morning, when markets were up 2%."
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The correct answer to this thread question was apparently "invest during the vote counting when markets plummet 5%, but not earlier that day or the following morning, when markets were up 2%."
I'm saving this as an appointment in my Google Calendar for mid-terms in 2 years, I'm going to make a killing.
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I guess it comes down to whether you trust the media narrative that Hillary is going to win. Clearly the media outlets conducting these polls want Hillary to win so it's really hard to trust what they are saying. ABC already admitted that they massaged their poll to include more minorities.
Polling averages have shown HRC leading for months. Tomorrow we'll see if the polls are "clearly" wrong as you say. Or if the data thus presented are correct. Either way, there is a clear record of what they have been saying.
I'll go on record today on election eve as saying HRC will win by a comfortable margin, but less than Obama in 2012 because that's what the polls say will happen.
I went on record....and I was dead wrong! I'll take my crow deep fried, please.
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I sold ALL my positions last Thursday when the DOW was at 17,900. 401K, IRA, everything, as I had a hunch Trump would win, and the markets would tumble.
I was right, except apparently Trump winning is great news for wall street? Dow now up to 18,600
I guess I should just leave index funds alone next time.
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I sold ALL my positions last Thursday when the DOW was at 17,900. 401K, IRA, everything, as I had a hunch Trump would win, and the markets would tumble.
I was right, except apparently Trump winning is great news for wall street? Dow now up to 18,600
I guess I should just leave index funds alone next time.
The first step in recovery is admitting you have a problem. ;)
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Glad my money went in Thursday when it first became available :).
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I sold ALL my positions last Thursday when the DOW was at 17,900. 401K, IRA, everything, as I had a hunch Trump would win, and the markets would tumble.
I was right, except apparently Trump winning is great news for wall street? Dow now up to 18,600
I guess I should just leave index funds alone next time.
I hope this doesn't cancel Christmas in the Swinga household.
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I am glad my strategy worked : invest before and after was a good idea.
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The market is so weird. People who think they can time it must not have tried for real, with records.
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Having worked for a pension consulting company, I have actually watched money flow in and out of defined contribution funds in response to market conditions and triggering events. The timers end up at the very bottom of the pile for returns, always.
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I sold ALL my positions last Thursday when the DOW was at 17,900. 401K, IRA, everything, as I had a hunch Trump would win, and the markets would tumble.
I was right, except apparently Trump winning is great news for wall street? Dow now up to 18,600
I'm thinking the pre-election jitters about a Trump presidency had more to do with the uncertainty regarding a smooth transfer of power, rather than any real fear about Trump's impact on the market itself. When it looked like Clinton was inevitable, the markets were fine. When it looked like there was a chance of a contested election, they were spooked. And when Hillary conceded, they recovered. I don't think anyone at this point can make any reasonable predictions about what a Trump presidency will look like. I do expect the country to survive, and so does everyone else with investments, apparently :)
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The rally is also focused on specific sectors: Energy (oil companies), defence, casinos are up. Utilities are down, presumably because of some safety effect.
Unfortunately I work for a power company, so I have a lot of stock in that shrinking utility pile.
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I'm not normally a market timer, but I moved 70% of my retirement savings to G bonds. Contributions will go on same allocation as always. Predictions based on what will happen to the economy and the market is based on Trump being a rational actor, but he knows nothing about government and (almost all) bets are off. I don't mind the majority of my retirement savings sitting out the next 4 years. Maybe if a year or two goes by, I still have a job and its business as usual, I may reconsider.
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The market is so weird. People who think they can time it must not have tried for real, with records.
It certainly is. I read an article today that theorized that the market gains are due to the "conciliatory" tone of Trump's victory speech. In other words, it's possible that the market is going gangbusters because Trump went 20 minutes without sounding like a maniac. That doesn't seem particularly sustainable to me.
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The market is so weird. People who think they can time it must not have tried for real, with records.
It certainly is. I read an article today that theorized that the market gains are due to the "conciliatory" tone of Trump's victory speech. In other words, it's possible that the market is going gangbusters because Trump went 20 minutes without sounding like a maniac. That doesn't seem particularly sustainable to me.
That sounds like something I'd expect in this thread:
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/hilarious-'reasons'-for-market-movement/
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The market is so weird. People who think they can time it must not have tried for real, with records.
It certainly is. I read an article today that theorized that the market gains are due to the "conciliatory" tone of Trump's victory speech. In other words, it's possible that the market is going gangbusters because Trump went 20 minutes without sounding like a maniac. That doesn't seem particularly sustainable to me.
That sounds like something I'd expect in this thread:
http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/hilarious-'reasons'-for-market-movement/
Hey, whatever the reason, I'll take the gains.
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The market is so weird. People who think they can time it must not have tried for real, with records.
LOL, everyone will be able to tell you about the one trade where they killed it and made 10K or whatever and no one remembers the 80 different times they lost 2k........
I was wrong 3 different times in the last 10 days, inconsequential over the next 10 years but valuable experience.
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Maybe the "bottom" was on last friday!
Hahahaha! Look how wrong you were!
I'll go on record today on election eve as saying HRC will win by a comfortable margin, but less than Obama in 2012 because that's what the polls say will happen.
Hahhahah! Look how wrong you were!
Omg, I feel ill.
Interesting times indeed!!
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SO - I didn't expect markets to rise, and I am half in cash....what to do now???
Depends. When do you want to admit market timing doesn't work?
At that point, invest.
Immediately after, the market will dive. If you follow your new belief, it won't be a big deal, and you'll just look long term. If you don't, you'll keep having this same dilemma.
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The market is so weird. People who think they can time it must not have tried for real, with records.
It certainly is. I read an article today that theorized that the market gains are due to the "conciliatory" tone of Trump's victory speech. In other words, it's possible that the market is going gangbusters because Trump went 20 minutes without sounding like a maniac. That doesn't seem particularly sustainable to me.
I agree! he actually sounded sane for 10 min! except forgetting to acknowledge MikeP!
SO - I didn't expect markets to rise, and I am half in cash....what to do now???
Buy? Isn't that what investors with cash do?
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Posting just to note for a forum with an anti-market timing bias there sure are a lot of market timing posts here! ;)