Author Topic: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?  (Read 40143 times)

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #100 on: December 23, 2014, 11:32:56 PM »
It's a good move to at least divert the dividends though. You're making almost 10% on your original investment each quarter with just the dividends alone. Just make sure that money train isn't going right back into APPL.

LordSquidworth

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #101 on: December 24, 2014, 07:57:55 AM »
^^

Direct the dividends elsewhere and that position should shrink, compared to others.

Allen

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #102 on: January 27, 2015, 03:17:51 PM »
Arrrgghhhh.  This earnings call is like a hot poker in my eye.

<deep breath>

I made a smart choice to sell 1/3rd of my AAPL and put the rest in International.

Ugh. 

/cry

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #103 on: January 27, 2015, 05:05:59 PM »
You did make the smart choice. Frankly, selling it all would have been an even SMARTER choice.

But it's better to be lucky than good. ;)

starguru

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #104 on: January 27, 2015, 05:36:39 PM »

You did make the smart choice. Frankly, selling it all would have been an even SMARTER choice.

But it's better to be lucky than good. ;)

I don't get it.  Why?

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #105 on: January 27, 2015, 05:39:13 PM »

You did make the smart choice. Frankly, selling it all would have been an even SMARTER choice.

But it's better to be lucky than good. ;)

I don't get it.  Why?
Why what? Why is he upset that he sold part of his AAPL position, or why is it better to be lucky than good?
« Last Edit: January 27, 2015, 05:51:21 PM by Chuck »

starguru

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #106 on: January 27, 2015, 05:56:49 PM »


You did make the smart choice. Frankly, selling it all would have been an even SMARTER choice.

But it's better to be lucky than good. ;)

I don't get it.  Why?
Why what? Why is he upset that he sold part of his AAPL position, or why is it better to be lucky than good?

Oh I thought he was happy he sold.  And was asking why.  I would hope this is the push the stock needs to get to a more reasonable value.  Isn't it very undervalued right now?

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #107 on: January 27, 2015, 05:58:04 PM »


You did make the smart choice. Frankly, selling it all would have been an even SMARTER choice.

But it's better to be lucky than good. ;)

I don't get it.  Why?
Why what? Why is he upset that he sold part of his AAPL position, or why is it better to be lucky than good?

Oh I thought he was happy he sold.  And was asking why.  I would hope this is the push the stock needs to get to a more reasonable value.  Isn't it very undervalued right now?
Considering that over 50% of sales were in China, and only 16% of sales were current customer upgrades? Yes. Yes it is underpriced.

Possibly by quite a lot.

jzb11

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #108 on: January 28, 2015, 04:39:04 AM »
I'm up 35% since last may. I will keep it until until the end of 2015.

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #109 on: January 28, 2015, 12:28:18 PM »
I'm up 35% since last may. I will keep it until until the end of 2015.
I'm up 20% since September, not counting the dividend payout (and the next one inbound).

I plan to hold until I go long term capital gains in September. Unless the 6s and it's upgrade potential lures me into early 2016.

I hope I'll have the willpower to sell this September.

richschmidt

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #110 on: January 29, 2015, 10:15:31 AM »
For all of you wondering what to do with your appreciated stock sitting in taxable accounts, don't forget that you can donate it to the charity/church of your choice and skip the capital gains tax. (Transfer it to them. Don't sell it and give them the money.) If it's long-term cap gains, you get credit on your federal taxes for the current value when you donate it.

Just a side note. I didn't read this whole thread, so forgive me if this has come up before. My wife and I are giving to our church that way this year, using AAPL stock that's appreciated quite a bit.

Allen

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #111 on: January 29, 2015, 01:58:41 PM »
Well.  I still have $25k in Apple stock after my previous sale (which was for $11,000 in December). 

"Fearful when others are greedy"...DESPITE the company being undervalued in my opinion and the capital return increases likely to continue to be huge, I think it is probably a good time to trim another $12.5k from my holdings and finish diversifying into International wouldn't you say?  Keeping $12.5k is still a huge allocation for an investor my size (total investments $181k).

Smart consensus, yes?

ioseftavi

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #112 on: January 29, 2015, 03:41:59 PM »
Seems like a great time to make another trim.

Side note:  This next sale of 12.5 will put you below 10% of your PF in AAPL.  I'd say once you've done that - you can rest a bit easier.  If it's killing you to sell this stock (psychologically), you can leave the remaining 12.5k in there and let it go for a bit.

Optimal portfolio management?  No.  Ideally, you'd index 100%.  But if the idea of having an "untouchable chunk" of apple for a while helps you sell some of it to get it down to a manageable size, then go for it.

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #113 on: January 30, 2015, 10:35:38 AM »
Barbara Boxer and Rand Paul (lol howdafuck they team up?) just unveiled a capital repatriation bill. 6.5% tax rate, with stipulations that the money can't be used for exec comp, buybacks and dividends for 8 years.

APPL has nearly 175 Billion in cash sitting idle. Oh man oh man if they were able to bring that money home.... 

Jon_Snow

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #114 on: January 30, 2015, 10:48:06 AM »
I own A LOT of Apple. Thankfully so. Between AAPL and my REIT's they have helped offset the gigantic crater in my energy stock holdings.

I think AAPL is a slam dunk to go to $150 relatively soon. Was thinking of buying more, but I am one of those people who doesn't like to put all of my eggs in one basket - even if Apple is one of the best "baskets" out there.

LordSquidworth

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #115 on: January 31, 2015, 07:02:47 AM »
I own A LOT of Apple. Thankfully so. Between AAPL and my REIT's they have helped offset the gigantic crater in my energy stock holdings.

I think AAPL is a slam dunk to go to $150 relatively soon. Was thinking of buying more, but I am one of those people who doesn't like to put all of my eggs in one basket - even if Apple is one of the best "baskets" out there.

I'm tempted to add to my AAPL position. Though might wait a couple months/depends if it breaks above $120. It's been somewhat range bound.

Barbara Boxer and Rand Paul (lol howdafuck they team up?) just unveiled a capital repatriation bill. 6.5% tax rate, with stipulations that the money can't be used for exec comp, buybacks and dividends for 8 years.

APPL has nearly 175 Billion in cash sitting idle. Oh man oh man if they were able to bring that money home....

It'd sit in a bank account for 8 years.

Seriously.

Apple bringing that cash back wouldn't create jobs. They have more than enough cash here at home to do whatever they want to do. The cash overseas, quite frankly, it's uses are exclusively for dividends/share buy backs.

Apple has too much cash.

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #116 on: February 11, 2015, 08:42:38 AM »
The money it's self wouldn't be distributable for 8 years, but it could be put to other purposes. Payroll, refresh of Apple Stores, Solar investment...

In the meantime, stateside revenues would be available for payment to investors.

CCCA

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #117 on: February 21, 2015, 10:41:46 AM »
AAPL has been on a tear recently (that was some earning's report!) and there's a lot of optimism around the company now, apple watch, apple car, etc. . . 
One part of me says, "well maybe they'll be valued as a company that can continue growing, and have a higher P/E ratio, rather than a company that is always about to be outcompeted by companies X, Y, or Z".  The other part of me says "I'm getting nervous partly because the share of AAPL as a % of my entire portfolio keeps growing, and it would be nice to lock in some more of the gains, (remembering back to 2012/2013 when the share price cratered)". 

I will sell some shares this year, but in terms of taxes and such a larger chunk that will make a significant dent in my asset allocation will probably have to wait until the beginning of next year. 

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #118 on: February 22, 2015, 05:59:38 PM »
AAPL has been on a tear recently (that was some earning's report!) and there's a lot of optimism around the company now, apple watch, apple car, etc. . . 
One part of me says, "well maybe they'll be valued as a company that can continue growing, and have a higher P/E ratio, rather than a company that is always about to be outcompeted by companies X, Y, or Z".  The other part of me says "I'm getting nervous partly because the share of AAPL as a % of my entire portfolio keeps growing, and it would be nice to lock in some more of the gains, (remembering back to 2012/2013 when the share price cratered)". 

I will sell some shares this year, but in terms of taxes and such a larger chunk that will make a significant dent in my asset allocation will probably have to wait until the beginning of next year.

I'm selling in September when my position goes LTCG. If I can sell while maintaining my 0% Capital gains tax rate I will sell the whole position. If not, I'll sell as much as I can.

That's what I tell myself, anyway.

CCCA

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #119 on: February 22, 2015, 09:38:28 PM »
AAPL has been on a tear recently (that was some earning's report!) and there's a lot of optimism around the company now, apple watch, apple car, etc. . . 
One part of me says, "well maybe they'll be valued as a company that can continue growing, and have a higher P/E ratio, rather than a company that is always about to be outcompeted by companies X, Y, or Z".  The other part of me says "I'm getting nervous partly because the share of AAPL as a % of my entire portfolio keeps growing, and it would be nice to lock in some more of the gains, (remembering back to 2012/2013 when the share price cratered)". 

I will sell some shares this year, but in terms of taxes and such a larger chunk that will make a significant dent in my asset allocation will probably have to wait until the beginning of next year.

I'm selling in September when my position goes LTCG. If I can sell while maintaining my 0% Capital gains tax rate I will sell the whole position. If not, I'll sell as much as I can.

That's what I tell myself, anyway.
I have a bunch that goes LT in Sept as well.  But as i mentioned, I may not be able to sell much until after the new year, because I will be very close to that 25% tax bracket even without selling.

I'm feeling pretty good about the next few months and that maybe the market is finally understanding that AAPL is not about to be beaten by Android or Samsung or whoever.  Plus they may be announcing some additional dividends or share repurchase in a few months which can help boost their share price.  I believe they earned about 5% of their current market cap in profit last year and have $170 B in cash. 
« Last Edit: February 22, 2015, 09:43:28 PM by CCCA »

Allen

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #120 on: February 23, 2015, 07:32:03 AM »
I never did sell my second third. Almost back up to $31k in AAPL again!! (actually $27.3k)
Glad I followed my gut instead of brain this time but it's a short term lucky break. I really need to take profits and get back to my proper AA.

Retire-Canada

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #121 on: February 23, 2015, 08:26:49 AM »
It's probably a little risky. I wouldn't sell, though. Just invest your new contributions in other stuff.

+1 - just start adding money to diversify your investments. If that's not fast enough for you sell as much of Apple as you feel is needed to reduce the risk.

-- Vik

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #122 on: February 23, 2015, 08:43:25 AM »

I have a bunch that goes LT in Sept as well.  But as i mentioned, I may not be able to sell much until after the new year, because I will be very close to that 25% tax bracket even without selling.

I'm feeling pretty good about the next few months and that maybe the market is finally understanding that AAPL is not about to be beaten by Android or Samsung or whoever.  Plus they may be announcing some additional dividends or share repurchase in a few months which can help boost their share price.  I believe they earned about 5% of their current market cap in profit last year and have $170 B in cash.
At a bare minimum you can get your principle out. That can be sold at any time without taxation. If the capital gains have to stay there for another year, worst case there's no money lost.

I never did sell my second third. Almost back up to $31k in AAPL again!! (actually $27.3k)
Glad I followed my gut instead of brain this time but it's a short term lucky break. I really need to take profits and get back to my proper AA.
Yeah, I'm right there with you. Frankly I never should have purchased my position in the first place. I bought at $98.00 in September, after the stock was already waaaay up on the year. Worst kind of herd purchase.

But it has appreciated nearly 33% since then, so it worked out. I just tell myself every day that it's dumb luck and not any personal insight or skill. And I will exit the position as soon as it's tax advantaged.

josstache

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #123 on: February 23, 2015, 08:53:29 AM »
At a bare minimum you can get your principle out. That can be sold at any time without taxation. If the capital gains have to stay there for another year, worst case there's no money lost.


Is CCCA holding Apple in a Roth IRA? Otherwise I don't think this is true.

Chuck

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #124 on: February 23, 2015, 11:32:43 AM »
At a bare minimum you can get your principle out. That can be sold at any time without taxation. If the capital gains have to stay there for another year, worst case there's no money lost.


Is CCCA holding Apple in a Roth IRA? Otherwise I don't think this is true.
Good point. How the stock is held presently is very important.

Bicycle_B

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #125 on: February 23, 2015, 02:03:14 PM »
Smart move would be to sell it since there would be no tax consequences for doing so. You got lucky and won the mini-lottery. Cash out!

+1 for sure!!

ValueIsWhatYouGet

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #126 on: February 23, 2015, 04:29:13 PM »
I know it isn't very popular here, since it goes against indexing and diversification, but if you know what you're doing in the stock market, having a high concentration in a few stocks isn't the worst thing.

I've had AAPL since 2004, and bought more during the dip when everyone felt they were dead in the water. Yet they still churned more and more cash flow. If you're not comfortable reading financial statements, 10-Ks, and doing fundamental analysis, then yes, you should probably get out and not hold individual stocks. Index funds are also very likely weighted heavily with AAPL as it is, with it being the largest company and all.

If you think that there is still room to grow, that the discounted rate of future cash flows exceeds what the market is currently valuing the company at by a HUGE margin, have a long-term timeline and do not get trigger happy, then yes, being in AAPL (or any other stock for that matter) is good. But if you aren't really sure what you're doing, and are merely investing because you think "the iPhone will sell well" without any understanding of how that will impact future financial performance, then sell now and index 100%.

KingCoin

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #127 on: February 23, 2015, 04:43:10 PM »
I know it isn't very popular here, since it goes against indexing and diversification, but if you know what you're doing in the stock market, having a high concentration in a few stocks isn't the worst thing.

I've had AAPL since 2004, and bought more during the dip when everyone felt they were dead in the water. Yet they still churned more and more cash flow. If you're not comfortable reading financial statements, 10-Ks, and doing fundamental analysis, then yes, you should probably get out and not hold individual stocks. Index funds are also very likely weighted heavily with AAPL as it is, with it being the largest company and all.

If you think that there is still room to grow, that the discounted rate of future cash flows exceeds what the market is currently valuing the company at by a HUGE margin, have a long-term timeline and do not get trigger happy, then yes, being in AAPL (or any other stock for that matter) is good. But if you aren't really sure what you're doing, and are merely investing because you think "the iPhone will sell well" without any understanding of how that will impact future financial performance, then sell now and index 100%.

Even the professionals can't beat the market. Reading 10-Ks isn't going to help you divine the future, no matter how skilled you think you are. There's nothing in that 10-k that every institutional invetor doesn't already know. AAPL is and was one of the most analyzed stocks in the world. What you're really betting on is AAPL's continued popularity down the road. That's ultimately unknowable. One period's tech darling is the next's also-ran. Holding onto AAPL and buying the dip worked, but AAPL could have gone the way of HTC or Blackberry in the post-Jobs era (and it still might). Hindsight is 20/20.

Yes, it's possible to understand the risk of a concentrated position and plan your portfolio and life around it. However, a concentrated portfolio increases risk without increasing expected return. It smacks of hubris to ignore the value of diversification and take a pass on one of the only free lunches in investing. 

ValueIsWhatYouGet

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #128 on: February 23, 2015, 05:24:18 PM »
I know it isn't very popular here, since it goes against indexing and diversification, but if you know what you're doing in the stock market, having a high concentration in a few stocks isn't the worst thing.

I've had AAPL since 2004, and bought more during the dip when everyone felt they were dead in the water. Yet they still churned more and more cash flow. If you're not comfortable reading financial statements, 10-Ks, and doing fundamental analysis, then yes, you should probably get out and not hold individual stocks. Index funds are also very likely weighted heavily with AAPL as it is, with it being the largest company and all.

If you think that there is still room to grow, that the discounted rate of future cash flows exceeds what the market is currently valuing the company at by a HUGE margin, have a long-term timeline and do not get trigger happy, then yes, being in AAPL (or any other stock for that matter) is good. But if you aren't really sure what you're doing, and are merely investing because you think "the iPhone will sell well" without any understanding of how that will impact future financial performance, then sell now and index 100%.

Even the professionals can't beat the market. Reading 10-Ks isn't going to help you divine the future, no matter how skilled you think you are. There's nothing in that 10-k that every institutional invetor doesn't already know. AAPL is and was one of the most analyzed stocks in the world. What you're really betting on is AAPL's continued popularity down the road. That's ultimately unknowable. One period's tech darling is the next's also-ran. Holding onto AAPL and buying the dip worked, but AAPL could have gone the way of HTC or Blackberry in the post-Jobs era (and it still might). Hindsight is 20/20.

Yes, it's possible to understand the risk of a concentrated position and plan your portfolio and life around it. However, a concentrated portfolio increases risk without increasing expected return. It smacks of hubris to ignore the value of diversification and take a pass on one of the only free lunches in investing.

For the vast majority of people, indexing is the way to go. But the numbers very clearly stated that Apple was not selling fewer iPhones and that they weren't dropping in popularity. But the market had this narrative it felt was true, and people traded on it. So while the numbers were in the 10-K that everyone read, it didn't translate into correct behavior.

Most of the time the market is right and efficient, but it does lose it's head from time to time so if you're smart about it, I do think you can stand to profit. Warren Buffett had his entire net worth invested in GEICO at one point.

CCCA

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Re: I have $31k in AAPL stock, am I an idiot?
« Reply #129 on: February 23, 2015, 11:50:13 PM »
At a bare minimum you can get your principle out. That can be sold at any time without taxation. If the capital gains have to stay there for another year, worst case there's no money lost.


Is CCCA holding Apple in a Roth IRA? Otherwise I don't think this is true.
Good point. How the stock is held presently is very important.


Not sure I understand how you can sell only the principal.  That doesn't make sense.  If it was in a Roth IRA (it is not), then I could sell anytime without any tax (long-term or short-term).  I just can't get the money out of the account unless it is the initial contribution.