Author Topic: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind  (Read 7166 times)

markbike528CBX

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #50 on: October 30, 2023, 12:40:33 PM »
SOMEBODY around here must think that there is massive demand and money to be made in apartment/?condo? building.

I think I'm seeing a slowdown in large, single family dwelling building, but apartments are sprouting like weeds (better than weeds) around here (South Central Washington State, think tumbleweed desert). 

We have gobs of land and no particular need to sprout upwards, but I've seen 5 or 6 story apartments planted in what was the open outskirts of town.

It is sad to see good cropland being gobbled up by housing and apartments, but to look on the bright side , it is better than spray irrigated corn (maize) in the middle of 100F+ temperatures and single digit relative humidity.  Dammit, corn is a tropical rainforest crop, not a desert / shrub-steppe one.   

--Sheepishly admitting that local sweet corn is awesome.-----

ender

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #51 on: October 30, 2023, 06:02:05 PM »
Levels.fyi is far more reliable than other sites for tech compensation.

For example, for my company Glassdoor compensation is hilariously wrong. It's off by a factor of 3x. Not 3%, but our senior software engineer comp is three times what Glassdoor says they are "confident" about. And it lists the wrong types of compensation.

Meanwhile, levels.fyi is almost exactly on what our internal compensation shows (I happen to be the owner of our internal salary sharing spreadsheet with a ton of datapoints).


Something to consider too about SF vs KC is not necessarily entry level compensation but opportunities. Cost of living comparisons are a bit silly too. I work remotely for a bay area based company. I have a large house and about a third of an acre. This type of house/lot is effectively non-existent in the bay area for anything close to a reasonable price. So me thinking "what would it cost to maintain my same standard of living if I moved to the bay area?" is kind of a dumb comparison, just like if I wanted to live in Manhattan. The lifestyle is simply different and it's basically comparing apples to oranges.

ender

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #52 on: October 30, 2023, 06:18:31 PM »
Like I said elsewhere, there are 2 distinct classes of financial wellbeing these days - those who managed to lock in their mortgages before 2022 and those who didn't...

The housing market is now completely dysfunctional due to the opportunity that presented itself a couple of years ago to lock in ultra-cheap mortgages... the way that interest rates have ballooned now, we are now in a situation where anyone who was able to take advantage of that is never going to give it up - effectively removing themselves and their home from the market almost indefinitely.   

Nobody is going to sell and give up such a huge advantage, and yet nobody can afford to buy at the price that would tempt homeowners with these golden mortgages to sell up and give up that hedge now that mortgage rates are 8%.

Make no mistake this dysfunction is a direct result of the Fed's actions. It may be brilliant for those who were able to lock in those cheap mortgages, but overall it is not good for the economy long term as it has created a huge deadpool where no transactions will happen, and reduces workforce mobility. Personally I think they should have capped the maximum lock in duration to 10 or 15 years.  A sub 3% mortgage for 30 years is the sort of giveaway that only presents itself once in a generation. Those who didn't or couldn't benefit are the ones now saddled with the burden of paying for it.

Something making this far worse too is the speed at which rates changed.

It wasn't a slow gradual process over multiple years. It was extremely abrupt. Which means there was no natural slow down or adjustment of housing purchases as folks slowly adapted. People basically went from housing being affordable to completely out of reach in a matter of months, not years.

wageslave23

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2023, 06:13:56 AM »
As another data point from a different industry, my wife is a nurse and has worked in San Francisco and Chicago. In Chicago a nurse makes about 100k. In San Francisco it's $200k.  I'm an accountant, in Chicago it's 130k, in San Francisco it's 200-250k.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #54 on: October 31, 2023, 08:43:05 AM »
Why move to Kansas City, Missouri to search for software engineering jobs?

In my research, I kept turning up bad data for KC jobs.  Website Indeed listed jobs actually in KC, but not software engineering jobs.  On LinkedIn, the jobs were real but the location was not.  It took quite a bit of searching to find a real job in KC, and which had a $55k - $70k range from a company that "prefers ... prior programming experience".  The entry salary is likely close to the $55k/yr figure.

I sampled repeatedly, taking the top entries to avoid bias.  Doing that, I found bad data consistently.  You may cry "anecdotes", but repeatedly finding bad data suggests a problem.


For "software developer 1" Salary.com says the median wage in Kansas City, MO is $75,690.
I suspect $76k/year is based on bad data, as I outlined above.  The most ironic finding was the 2nd to 5th entry level jobs on LinkedIn... from a company headquartered in San Francisco.  No wonder KC salaries are so similar to SF salaries... they're copy & pasting the jobs from SF!

Do you have a better example than software engineers in Kansas City?

vand

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #55 on: November 08, 2023, 12:38:28 AM »
Like I said elsewhere, there are 2 distinct classes of financial wellbeing these days - those who managed to lock in their mortgages before 2022 and those who didn't...

The housing market is now completely dysfunctional due to the opportunity that presented itself a couple of years ago to lock in ultra-cheap mortgages... the way that interest rates have ballooned now, we are now in a situation where anyone who was able to take advantage of that is never going to give it up - effectively removing themselves and their home from the market almost indefinitely.   

Nobody is going to sell and give up such a huge advantage, and yet nobody can afford to buy at the price that would tempt homeowners with these golden mortgages to sell up and give up that hedge now that mortgage rates are 8%.

Make no mistake this dysfunction is a direct result of the Fed's actions. It may be brilliant for those who were able to lock in those cheap mortgages, but overall it is not good for the economy long term as it has created a huge deadpool where no transactions will happen, and reduces workforce mobility. Personally I think they should have capped the maximum lock in duration to 10 or 15 years.  A sub 3% mortgage for 30 years is the sort of giveaway that only presents itself once in a generation. Those who didn't or couldn't benefit are the ones now saddled with the burden of paying for it.

Something making this far worse too is the speed at which rates changed.

It wasn't a slow gradual process over multiple years. It was extremely abrupt. Which means there was no natural slow down or adjustment of housing purchases as folks slowly adapted. People basically went from housing being affordable to completely out of reach in a matter of months, not years.


The UK housing market has been "broken" in this way for a very long time now - most people who own homes in no way could afford to buy the current home they live in after we had 2 decades declining mortgage rates, and our mortgages are usually short term fixed for 2 years-5yrs, most homeowners went from paying 5-6% in the 2000s to paying 1-2% in more recent years... yet house prices ballooned such that payments as a %age of income roughly stayed the same.  You can guess what that did for income/house price ratios and how much people had to borrow if they wanted to buy a house.  It created a huge disparity in wealth between those who owned and those who didn't.


reeshau

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #56 on: November 08, 2023, 04:14:10 AM »
...our mortgages are usually short term fixed for 2 years-5yrs...

This is going to make current interest rates very impactful across Europe much sooner than the US.  If the supply of new housing in the US is tight, the market could remain bound for quite some time; basically, at the rate of mortgage payoffs + forced moves.  But Europe will see a significant percentage of forced decisions each year rates stay at this level.

clifp

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #57 on: November 11, 2023, 03:51:59 AM »
A bit late to this conversation, but a few observations.

There ain't many benefits to becoming chronologically gifted, but having a longer perspective is one of them.  Interest rates aren't high. They are back to normal.  The last 15 years have seen the most dramatic interference, possibly ever and certainly since the Great Depression and WWII.  Historically, over hundreds of year period, long-term sovereign debt is about 5%. So when we see 10-year at just 5%, that's about right, and 7.5-8% mortgages also seem appropriate.

Earlier, there were some good charts on housing prices and affordability.  They showed housing affordability to be at the low end of historical ranges.  However, there are real limitations to making comparisons across the decades.  While Case-Shiller is a very good tool.  The 1000' average 2 bedroom 1.5 bath house of 1960 is not really comparable to nearly 2500 3-4 bedroom 3 bath house of today.
It is more than just the size, the overall utility of the house is a lot more valuable than it was 50 years ago and even at the beginning of the century.  I purchase, either as rental or flip property a lot of 1940-1970 era houses in the KC areas.  Generally, by the time we finish renovating, they are in 200-300K ranges and not only better than the junk condition we bought them in but better than there were new. They have, a washer, dryers, dishwashers, microwaves, and A/C.   Much better furnaces and insulation, granite or quartz surface, and often LVP flooring, nice stuff that requires less maintenance.  Houses, now days have enough room to have an office, or room to start a business or hobby, as well as room for the small number of kids. As a teenager, I went to lot of movies. Beside the obvious, dates, and that was the only way to see a movie back in the not-so-good-old days, during summer you went to the movies cause your house didn't have A/C and theaters did. Today's house offer and wide variety of movies for very cheap price, with big screen, air condition, and even fancy popcorn, and/or expresso machines.   Similarly, one of the things I hated about living in an apartment was having to go to the complex's laundry room or even worse, a laundromat.  Nowadays almost all houses come with washers and dryer so you can bypass these.   So given the improved functionality of a house it is no surprise that real prices have gotten up
.

Finally, I'm glad people mentioned Europe, but first, let's take a look at Canadian houses.  Canada's house average 1950 square feet, mortgages are adjustable after 5 years, mortgage interest is not deductible, pretty much an inferior investment to US houses in every way.  Yet Vancouver's median price is 50% higher than Seattles'.  Toronto's prices are 15 times higher, than Detroit proper and 3x more expensive than Gross Pointe, MI where all the auto executives live.


It's not like Canada is a fluke is here is a list of housing affordability by country. The US ranks 101st out 106th of the least affordable housing, only place in the Middle East like Saudi Arabia and Qatar are more affordable.  So for those who think have a housing crisis, what is the adjective you used to describe the 100 other countries with more expensive housing?

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp



Metalcat

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #58 on: November 11, 2023, 05:37:15 AM »
SOMEBODY around here must think that there is massive demand and money to be made in apartment/?condo? building.

I think I'm seeing a slowdown in large, single family dwelling building, but apartments are sprouting like weeds (better than weeds) around here (South Central Washington State, think tumbleweed desert). 

We have gobs of land and no particular need to sprout upwards, but I've seen 5 or 6 story apartments planted in what was the open outskirts of town.

It is sad to see good cropland being gobbled up by housing and apartments, but to look on the bright side , it is better than spray irrigated corn (maize) in the middle of 100F+ temperatures and single digit relative humidity.  Dammit, corn is a tropical rainforest crop, not a desert / shrub-steppe one.   

--Sheepishly admitting that local sweet corn is awesome.-----

I've asked this same question here multiple times. Up here in Canadaland, luxury highrise condos are very normal, I'm in one right now.

A number of people have tried to explain to me while multifamily housing seems to be generally equated with poor quality, shitty housing that no one wants in the US, but I still don't quite understand.

That said, as has already been mentioned, despite highrises being ubiquitous up here, we still have a worse housing problem than the US, so it's not *just* a matter of everyone wanting SFHs.

We embrace condos up here, we don't have 30 year mortgage terms, we can't deduct mortgage interest, we don't have a ton of population, we don't have cities with massive salaries, we don't have weird California property tax laws, we have strict tenant protections almost everywhere, we have onerous banking regulations, and we have very high standards that buyers have to meet to prove they can actually afford what they're trying to buy.

And yet, we have a substantially worse housing problem than the US. So it's very interesting to see what the Americans attribute pricing issues to when we're up here with a totally system and a worse problem.

Dicey

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #59 on: November 11, 2023, 09:27:54 AM »
@clifp , " chronologically gifted" is awesome. I remember being elated to get a 7% mortgage in 1996. Problem is, I can't remember the rate on the previous house, lol.

Morning Glory

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #60 on: November 11, 2023, 10:24:40 AM »
@clifp , " chronologically gifted" is awesome. I remember being elated to get a 7% mortgage in 1996. Problem is, I can't remember the rate on the previous house, lol.

I can't remember the rate on my first two houses either. I know my first payment was <$300/ month and was less than my classmates were paying for half a dorm room, plus I could save by cooking for myself while they got stuck with a mandatory meal plan.

Log

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #61 on: November 11, 2023, 11:32:39 AM »
SOMEBODY around here must think that there is massive demand and money to be made in apartment/?condo? building.

I think I'm seeing a slowdown in large, single family dwelling building, but apartments are sprouting like weeds (better than weeds) around here (South Central Washington State, think tumbleweed desert). 

We have gobs of land and no particular need to sprout upwards, but I've seen 5 or 6 story apartments planted in what was the open outskirts of town.

It is sad to see good cropland being gobbled up by housing and apartments, but to look on the bright side , it is better than spray irrigated corn (maize) in the middle of 100F+ temperatures and single digit relative humidity.  Dammit, corn is a tropical rainforest crop, not a desert / shrub-steppe one.   

--Sheepishly admitting that local sweet corn is awesome.-----

I've asked this same question here multiple times. Up here in Canadaland, luxury highrise condos are very normal, I'm in one right now.

A number of people have tried to explain to me while multifamily housing seems to be generally equated with poor quality, shitty housing that no one wants in the US, but I still don't quite understand.

That said, as has already been mentioned, despite highrises being ubiquitous up here, we still have a worse housing problem than the US, so it's not *just* a matter of everyone wanting SFHs.

We embrace condos up here, we don't have 30 year mortgage terms, we can't deduct mortgage interest, we don't have a ton of population, we don't have cities with massive salaries, we don't have weird California property tax laws, we have strict tenant protections almost everywhere, we have onerous banking regulations, and we have very high standards that buyers have to meet to prove they can actually afford what they're trying to buy.

And yet, we have a substantially worse housing problem than the US. So it's very interesting to see what the Americans attribute pricing issues to when we're up here with a totally system and a worse problem.

Canada is a great supporting argument for the supply/demand explanation. The froth from interest rate adjustments is negligible compared to the underlying "line go up" mentality.

Canada has similar NIMBYism, similar birth rates, and much higher rates of immigration. Same slow growth of supply with faster growth in demand = more housing unaffordability. Same problem in Australia and New Zealand. Immigration is great, and I wish the US would accept more immigrants as well, but building enough homes is a crucial piece of intelligent immigration policies (even the progressive populations of AU and NZ are having nativist backlashes fueled largely by housing unaffordability).

Add in the fact that more of Canada's housing demand is concentrated in a handful of already urbanized areas (with greenbelts/land preserves not seen in US cities) and there's no sun belt suburban sprawl to swallow demand, and it's really the exact same problems turned up to 11.

clifp

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #62 on: November 11, 2023, 01:52:57 PM »
@clifp , " chronologically gifted" is awesome. I remember being elated to get a 7% mortgage in 1996. Problem is, I can't remember the rate on the previous house, lol.
As an ex-marketing guy, I take great pride in describing bugs as features.  So, in addition to being chronologically gifted, I'm either horizontally gifted, well-insulated or famine-resistant.

As I've said my first mortgage in 83/84 was 13.75%. at the time when plenty of folks had 7-8% 30-year fixed.  There was a significant slowdown in house sales because people were reluctant to give up their good mortgages, very similar to today.  My own Shiller Case study is the property I bought in Santa Clara, CA in Jan, 84 for $153K that's $462K in today's $.  The house sold for 2.2 million last year, and Zillow says it's worth the same today.   During that time the population of Santa Clara County, increased by about 40%.

One thing that's worth considering when comparing salaries between Silicon Valley and place like Kansas City, especially for s/w engineers  is the importance of stock options.  I think the complexity of stock option compensation makes it really hard to compare.  I used to stock options to buy out my co-owner, and then later to pay off the mortgage, plenty of other people did the same.   So at least part of the reason that prices in the SF Bay area exploded was not just salaries but stock options.

Telecaster

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #63 on: November 11, 2023, 10:32:26 PM »
@clifp , " chronologically gifted" is awesome. I remember being elated to get a 7% mortgage in 1996. Problem is, I can't remember the rate on the previous house, lol.

I got a mortgage in that same year and the rate was 7 1/4.   Because in those days decimals had not yet been invented and rates were expressed as fractions.  I thought that was a screaming low rate at the time, by the way. 

I've said it before, I'll say it again:  A sub--4% mortgage was the deal of a lifetime.   @Dicey and others did yeoman's work pounding that fact home. 

Dicey

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #64 on: November 12, 2023, 12:48:19 AM »
@clifp , " chronologically gifted" is awesome. I remember being elated to get a 7% mortgage in 1996. Problem is, I can't remember the rate on the previous house, lol.

I got a mortgage in that same year and the rate was 7 1/4.   Because in those days decimals had not yet been invented and rates were expressed as fractions.  I thought that was a screaming low rate at the time, by the way. 

I've said it before, I'll say it again:  A sub--4% mortgage was the deal of a lifetime.   @Dicey and others did yeoman's work pounding that fact home.
Thanks. Apparently not everybody thinks so.

vand

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #65 on: November 12, 2023, 01:56:14 AM »
Gonna take slight issue with the argument that "7% rates are a historical norm so this is the natural level" - yes, maybe that is the norm historically, but we live in modern times, not in historic times, and context to those historic averages need to be applied.

We live in today's world were population growth is both slowing sharply while aging, and where much of the economy exists in the digital realm where there is much less reliance on the physical constraints.

Also, as society becomes wealthier its people will tend to trade more of their work time for free time as real productivity increases means they are able to maintain their standard of living doing less hours. Therefore growth rates and rates of return on capital tend lower the richer a society becomes. 


ender

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #66 on: November 12, 2023, 06:47:53 AM »
Mortgage rates in a vacuum don’t matter.

What matters is the combination of housing purchase price and mortgage rates, because this impacts affordability.

It’s silly to focus purely on either of those numbers.

Log

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #67 on: November 12, 2023, 09:38:48 AM »
Gonna take slight issue with the argument that "7% rates are a historical norm so this is the natural level" - yes, maybe that is the norm historically, but we live in modern times, not in historic times, and context to those historic averages need to be applied.

We live in today's world were population growth is both slowing sharply while aging, and where much of the economy exists in the digital realm where there is much less reliance on the physical constraints.

Also, as society becomes wealthier its people will tend to trade more of their work time for free time as real productivity increases means they are able to maintain their standard of living doing less hours. Therefore growth rates and rates of return on capital tend lower the richer a society becomes.

This is a perfectly logical theory of change that has repeatedly not borne out in reality. Many of the richest people in America continue to work the longest hours. Other rich countries have either vastly different policy/tax regimes that have intentionally fostered more of a culture of leisure amongst the wealthy/upper middle class (Europe) or have suffered from vastly more rapid of a population decline (Japan). Through immigration, wealthy countries will be able to maintain population growth for all of our lifetimes, despite below-replacement birth rates, so we’re not going the way of Japan any time soon unless xenophobic nationalism somehow repeatedly wins out. I suppose a somewhat plausible path to that future would be a continued failure to build enough homes.

vand

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #68 on: November 12, 2023, 10:56:01 AM »
Gonna take slight issue with the argument that "7% rates are a historical norm so this is the natural level" - yes, maybe that is the norm historically, but we live in modern times, not in historic times, and context to those historic averages need to be applied.

We live in today's world were population growth is both slowing sharply while aging, and where much of the economy exists in the digital realm where there is much less reliance on the physical constraints.

Also, as society becomes wealthier its people will tend to trade more of their work time for free time as real productivity increases means they are able to maintain their standard of living doing less hours. Therefore growth rates and rates of return on capital tend lower the richer a society becomes.

This is a perfectly logical theory of change that has repeatedly not borne out in reality. Many of the richest people in America continue to work the longest hours. Other rich countries have either vastly different policy/tax regimes that have intentionally fostered more of a culture of leisure amongst the wealthy/upper middle class (Europe) or have suffered from vastly more rapid of a population decline (Japan). Through immigration, wealthy countries will be able to maintain population growth for all of our lifetimes, despite below-replacement birth rates, so we’re not going the way of Japan any time soon unless xenophobic nationalism somehow repeatedly wins out. I suppose a somewhat plausible path to that future would be a continued failure to build enough homes.

While of course you will hear about the outliers, the stats support the premise:

https://www.businessinsider.com/average-annual-hours-worked-for-americans-vs-the-rest-of-the-world-2013-8?r=US&IR=T

https://clockify.me/working-hours


interesting uptick at the end, mind - likely covid related and the shift to WFH that means less time spent on commuting
« Last Edit: November 12, 2023, 10:58:37 AM by vand »

bacchi

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #69 on: November 12, 2023, 11:12:21 AM »
Gonna take slight issue with the argument that "7% rates are a historical norm so this is the natural level" - yes, maybe that is the norm historically, but we live in modern times, not in historic times, and context to those historic averages need to be applied.

We live in today's world were population growth is both slowing sharply while aging, and where much of the economy exists in the digital realm where there is much less reliance on the physical constraints.

Also, as society becomes wealthier its people will tend to trade more of their work time for free time as real productivity increases means they are able to maintain their standard of living doing less hours. Therefore growth rates and rates of return on capital tend lower the richer a society becomes.

This is a perfectly logical theory of change that has repeatedly not borne out in reality. Many of the richest people in America continue to work the longest hours. Other rich countries have either vastly different policy/tax regimes that have intentionally fostered more of a culture of leisure amongst the wealthy/upper middle class (Europe) or have suffered from vastly more rapid of a population decline (Japan). Through immigration, wealthy countries will be able to maintain population growth for all of our lifetimes, despite below-replacement birth rates, so we’re not going the way of Japan any time soon unless xenophobic nationalism somehow repeatedly wins out. I suppose a somewhat plausible path to that future would be a continued failure to build enough homes.

While of course you will hear about the outliers, the stats support the premise:

<snip of stats>

Right, Log is discussing a subset of American workers. In the past in the US, the longest working were those below the income bell curve. This has shifted so that now the longest working are the well-off.

Quote from: https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/01/american-rich-men-work-less-hours-workism/672895/
One of the weirdest economic stories of the past half century is what happened to rich Americans—and especially rich American men—at work.

In general, poor people work more than wealthy people. This story is consistent across countries (for example, people in Cambodia work much more than people in Switzerland) and across time (for example, Germans in the 1950s worked almost twice as much as they do today).

But starting in the 1980s in the United States, this saga reversed itself. The highest-earning Americans worked longer and longer hours, in defiance of expectations or common sense.

clifp

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #70 on: November 12, 2023, 11:29:09 AM »
Gonna take slight issue with the argument that "7% rates are a historical norm so this is the natural level" - yes, maybe that is the norm historically, but we live in modern times, not in historic times, and context to those historic averages need to be applied.

We live in today's world were population growth is both slowing sharply while aging, and where much of the economy exists in the digital realm where there is much less reliance on the physical constraints.

Also, as society becomes wealthier its people will tend to trade more of their work time for free time as real productivity increases means they are able to maintain their standard of living doing less hours. Therefore growth rates and rates of return on capital tend lower the richer a society becomes.

This makes sense in theory, but I'm not sure it's made much difference in practice.  Even if we take at face value your chart, and some direct correlation of the decline of hours worked or birthrate at interest rate. The US population growth in 1970 was 1.3%/year todays it 1.0%   We have seen less than 10% decline in hours worked in US, and a 25% decrease in population growth.  That would imply a drop in interest rates in the 10-year from 7.35% in 1970 to range between 5.5-6.2% today.  But wouldn't explain the sub 3% yields for 10% treasury we saw in tge decade of 2010. 


The main explanation for 2009-2021 is a massive increase in the money supply to a very loose monetary and fiscal policy.

<a href='https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart'>10 Year Treasury Rate - 54 Year Historical Chart</a>

vand

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #71 on: November 12, 2023, 11:36:08 AM »
Gonna take slight issue with the argument that "7% rates are a historical norm so this is the natural level" - yes, maybe that is the norm historically, but we live in modern times, not in historic times, and context to those historic averages need to be applied.

We live in today's world were population growth is both slowing sharply while aging, and where much of the economy exists in the digital realm where there is much less reliance on the physical constraints.

Also, as society becomes wealthier its people will tend to trade more of their work time for free time as real productivity increases means they are able to maintain their standard of living doing less hours. Therefore growth rates and rates of return on capital tend lower the richer a society becomes.

This is a perfectly logical theory of change that has repeatedly not borne out in reality. Many of the richest people in America continue to work the longest hours. Other rich countries have either vastly different policy/tax regimes that have intentionally fostered more of a culture of leisure amongst the wealthy/upper middle class (Europe) or have suffered from vastly more rapid of a population decline (Japan). Through immigration, wealthy countries will be able to maintain population growth for all of our lifetimes, despite below-replacement birth rates, so we’re not going the way of Japan any time soon unless xenophobic nationalism somehow repeatedly wins out. I suppose a somewhat plausible path to that future would be a continued failure to build enough homes.

While of course you will hear about the outliers, the stats support the premise:

<snip of stats>

Right, Log is discussing a subset of American workers. In the past in the US, the longest working were those below the income bell curve. This has shifted so that now the longest working are the well-off.

Quote from: https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/01/american-rich-men-work-less-hours-workism/672895/
One of the weirdest economic stories of the past half century is what happened to rich Americans—and especially rich American men—at work.

In general, poor people work more than wealthy people. This story is consistent across countries (for example, people in Cambodia work much more than people in Switzerland) and across time (for example, Germans in the 1950s worked almost twice as much as they do today).

But starting in the 1980s in the United States, this saga reversed itself. The highest-earning Americans worked longer and longer hours, in defiance of expectations or common sense.

Yes, I do agree somewhat. If people find their life's meaning in work then its no surprise they will tend more towards work, and in a richer society this "lifestyle" is easier - you can afford to pay someone else to look after the other aspects of your life while you focus on work (think Elon).

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #72 on: November 12, 2023, 12:07:00 PM »
Yes, I do agree somewhat. If people find their life's meaning in work then its no surprise they will tend more towards work, and in a richer society this "lifestyle" is easier - you can afford to pay someone else to look after the other aspects of your life while you focus on work (think Elon).

That may be a part of it, and I think a lot of it is also cultural. I work in software in America, one of the very highest-paid careers that doesn't require post-bachelor's education. Part-time work just Isn't Done in this field. Sometimes if you establish yourself as a solid employee you can convince an existing employer to let you work a reduced schedule, but asking a recruiter whether they'd accept someone working 80% of the days for 80% (or even less!) pay is a great way to end the conversation entirely. It's honestly inexplicable.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #73 on: December 22, 2023, 11:53:15 AM »
There is no housing crisis it's just one of the many factors of an economy in overall decline.

Housing crisis, banking crisis, financial crisis, inflation crisis, interest rate crisis, supply chain crisis and employment crisis are all terms I've heard the TV/Radio idiots use in the last 30 days.

People need to step the fuck back and look at what's actually happening. Economy falling apart at the seams, stock market all-time high. Think about it for a bit.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #74 on: December 23, 2023, 10:32:20 AM »
Yes, I do agree somewhat. If people find their life's meaning in work then its no surprise they will tend more towards work, and in a richer society this "lifestyle" is easier - you can afford to pay someone else to look after the other aspects of your life while you focus on work (think Elon).
That may be a part of it, and I think a lot of it is also cultural. I work in software in America, one of the very highest-paid careers that doesn't require post-bachelor's education. Part-time work just Isn't Done in this field. Sometimes if you establish yourself as a solid employee you can convince an existing employer to let you work a reduced schedule, but asking a recruiter whether they'd accept someone working 80% of the days for 80% (or even less!) pay is a great way to end the conversation entirely. It's honestly inexplicable.
Working 80% hours for 80% pay might be easier in the current environment, although most employers seem to be offering a 4 day, 10 hour/day work week.
https://www.driveresearch.com/market-research-company-blog/4-day-workweek-survey/

Do the statistics on lower paid/higher paid hours work consider workers who hold multiple jobs?  It's ramped back up to 5%, meaning 1 in 20 workers have multiple jobs.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #75 on: January 17, 2024, 01:30:06 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/16/economy/boomers-own-more-larger-homes-than-millennial-families/index.html

Today “ empty-nest Baby Boomers own 28% of large homes — and Milliennials with kids own just 14%, according to a Redfin analysis released Tuesday. Gen Z families own just 0.3% of homes with three bedrooms or more.”

“ Ten years ago, in 2012, empty nesters of the Silent Generation, who were between the ages of 67 and 84 at the time, took up 16% of homes that were three-bedrooms or larger. That is a smaller share than Gen Xers with kids, who were aged 32 to 47 at the time, and took up 19% of those large homes.”

This rings true in my family. My empty nester Boomer parents have the biggest house in the family. My mom says it’s for her grandkids to visit.

I wouldn’t say there is a general housing crisis, but there is definitely a generational housing crisis. Especially with the high interest rates now, younger generations are often priced out of family homes. Working from home has also added more competition for homes with more bedrooms. I really feel for young families with kids today! Maybe it’s time to get rid of 65+ property tax exemptions?
« Last Edit: January 17, 2024, 02:02:59 AM by EverythingisNew »

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #76 on: January 17, 2024, 05:59:51 AM »
Maybe it’s time to get rid of 65+ property tax exemptions?
If you can find a politician foolish enough to champion it as their last act in Congress...

Of those aged 65+, 2 out of 3 vote.  They'll vote as a bloc against this law, and they will show up.  The young voters this proposal needs won't show up - just as 18-24 year-olds didn't show up in 2022 (only 1 in 4 voted).

After the bill fails, those same older voters will vote against the politician that tried to tax them.  It's the same reason social security isn't getting fixed until it breaks.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #77 on: January 17, 2024, 06:55:04 AM »
Maybe it’s time to get rid of 65+ property tax exemptions?
If you can find a politician foolish enough to champion it as their last act in Congress...

Of those aged 65+, 2 out of 3 vote.  They'll vote as a bloc against this law, and they will show up.  The young voters this proposal needs won't show up - just as 18-24 year-olds didn't show up in 2022 (only 1 in 4 voted).

After the bill fails, those same older voters will vote against the politician that tried to tax them.  It's the same reason social security isn't getting fixed until it breaks.
IDK, this is kind of like saying taxes can never go up. Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the maximum mortgage size for which interest could be tax deductible from $1M to $750k, and eliminated interest deductions on 2nd mortgages not used for remods. Neither he nor Congressional Republicans seem to have paid any price for that.

Still, you make a good point. Those who vote and organize tend to get their way in a democracy. The young people who are irritated about government policy pricing them out of homes are in the least likely demographic to vote or attend a city council meeting. It's fair to say they don't matter, because they are so busy with their educations, careers, children, romantic lives, etc. that they aren't available to participate in government.

IMO this is another supporting point to the OP in this thread. We don't have a supply/demand problem. We have layers of government policies, subsidies, zoning restrictions, etc. designed to increase the value of homes as an investment.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #78 on: January 17, 2024, 07:16:46 AM »
Maybe it’s time to get rid of 65+ property tax exemptions?
If you can find a politician foolish enough to champion it as their last act in Congress...

Of those aged 65+, 2 out of 3 vote.  They'll vote as a bloc against this law, and they will show up.  The young voters this proposal needs won't show up - just as 18-24 year-olds didn't show up in 2022 (only 1 in 4 voted).

After the bill fails, those same older voters will vote against the politician that tried to tax them.  It's the same reason social security isn't getting fixed until it breaks.
IDK, this is kind of like saying taxes can never go up. Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the maximum mortgage size for which interest could be tax deductible from $1M to $750k, and eliminated interest deductions on 2nd mortgages not used for remods. Neither he nor Congressional Republicans seem to have paid any price for that.

Still, you make a good point. Those who vote and organize tend to get their way in a democracy. The young people who are irritated about government policy pricing them out of homes are in the least likely demographic to vote or attend a city council meeting. It's fair to say they don't matter, because they are so busy with their educations, careers, children, romantic lives, etc. that they aren't available to participate in government.

IMO this is another supporting point to the OP in this thread. We don't have a supply/demand problem. We have layers of government policies, subsidies, zoning restrictions, etc. designed to increase the value of homes as an investment.
Eliminating all property tax exemptions hurts anyone who owns a home.  I wouldn't expect the same uproar from people who own multiple homes, or who owe over $1 million dollars on their home mortgage.  Seems like a much richer and narrower group.

Better schools drive up home prices.  I suspect the higher cost neighborhoods like to keep it that way, and have the money to put up a legal fight.  That leaves developers with fewer places - and worse prices - for building new homes.  I'd say "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY) is a factor as well.

Right now, high mortgage rates are lowering demand for homes.  And banks took a nice beating on their treasury holdings from the 2022 rate increases, so they're probably nervous about lowering mortgage rates too quickly.  It may take awhile for demand to recover.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #79 on: January 17, 2024, 07:40:57 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/16/economy/boomers-own-more-larger-homes-than-millennial-families/index.html

Today “ empty-nest Baby Boomers own 28% of large homes — and Milliennials with kids own just 14%, according to a Redfin analysis released Tuesday. Gen Z families own just 0.3% of homes with three bedrooms or more.”

“ Ten years ago, in 2012, empty nesters of the Silent Generation, who were between the ages of 67 and 84 at the time, took up 16% of homes that were three-bedrooms or larger. That is a smaller share than Gen Xers with kids, who were aged 32 to 47 at the time, and took up 19% of those large homes.”

This rings true in my family. My empty nester Boomer parents have the biggest house in the family. My mom says it’s for her grandkids to visit.

I wouldn’t say there is a general housing crisis, but there is definitely a generational housing crisis. Especially with the high interest rates now, younger generations are often priced out of family homes. Working from home has also added more competition for homes with more bedrooms. I really feel for young families with kids today! Maybe it’s time to get rid of 65+ property tax exemptions?

I saw that article this morning too and felt the same way. I immediately read parts out loud to my husband who said "oh, that is totally my parents."

My inlaws recently sold their large home and were lamenting that they hadn't been able to sell it to a young family. I pointed out that several young families had put in offers and wrote really nice letters, but a boomer couple outbid them (by a LOT) so my inlaws sold the big old house to the boomer couple who are going to use it as a rental property. In-laws went from a 3800 sqft house to an almost 6k sqft house - they are in their 70s.

They would like us to upsize into a larger home (ours is just over 1600 sqft) so they can visit us more. But we can't really afford to move up into the next size of houses in our school district (and definitely not with the current interest rates).
« Last Edit: January 17, 2024, 07:42:28 AM by StarBright »

seattlecyclone

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #80 on: January 17, 2024, 12:51:23 PM »
Anecdotally I can definitely corroborate the "empty nester baby boomer has bigger house than their millennial kids who have kids of their own" trend. I have what feels to me like a large house: 2,000 finished square feet plus some basement and garage space underneath. It was expensive and I feel fortunate to have it, and I also have no desire to keep this large of a house once the kids are grown. So much of our space and the stuff that fills it feels like it adds value to our lives while we're currently raising kids, but that will flip on its head rather quickly after they're gone.

Despite how we have a large house ourselves, my parents' house is a bit bigger. Besides the one bedroom they actually use, they have three more that sit empty most of the time, except as storage for random stuff they've accumulated over the years. They have two living/family rooms that they actually spend time in, and a third that I think basically just gets used to open presents on Christmas morning. My youngest sister moved out a decade ago. They've talked about moving to something smaller, but they can't quite agree on what or where, so they're staying put due to inertia mostly.

What my own parents have is nothing compared to my in-laws. They had it custom-built as their "dream home" when my wife (their youngest) was in high school. Whatever a normal house might have one of, theirs has two: living rooms, dining rooms, dishwashers, stoves, refrigerators, garages, you name it. It's absolutely gorgeous and also way too much. At least one of them seems pretty determined to live there until they die. They have the financial means to pay for whatever upkeep they can't or won't do themselves, but I fear that even just managing that process will become too much for them before too many years pass.

WayDownSouth

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #81 on: January 17, 2024, 12:58:09 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/16/economy/boomers-own-more-larger-homes-than-millennial-families/index.html

Today “ empty-nest Baby Boomers own 28% of large homes — and Milliennials with kids own just 14%, according to a Redfin analysis released Tuesday. Gen Z families own just 0.3% of homes with three bedrooms or more.”

“ Ten years ago, in 2012, empty nesters of the Silent Generation, who were between the ages of 67 and 84 at the time, took up 16% of homes that were three-bedrooms or larger. That is a smaller share than Gen Xers with kids, who were aged 32 to 47 at the time, and took up 19% of those large homes.”

This rings true in my family. My empty nester Boomer parents have the biggest house in the family. My mom says it’s for her grandkids to visit.

I wouldn’t say there is a general housing crisis, but there is definitely a generational housing crisis. Especially with the high interest rates now, younger generations are often priced out of family homes. Working from home has also added more competition for homes with more bedrooms. I really feel for young families with kids today! Maybe it’s time to get rid of 65+ property tax exemptions?

I saw that article this morning too and felt the same way. I immediately read parts out loud to my husband who said "oh, that is totally my parents."

My inlaws recently sold their large home and were lamenting that they hadn't been able to sell it to a young family. I pointed out that several young families had put in offers and wrote really nice letters, but a boomer couple outbid them (by a LOT) so my inlaws sold the big old house to the boomer couple who are going to use it as a rental property. In-laws went from a 3800 sqft house to an almost 6k sqft house - they are in their 70s.

They would like us to upsize into a larger home (ours is just over 1600 sqft) so they can visit us more. But we can't really afford to move up into the next size of houses in our school district (and definitely not with the current interest rates).

I never understood things like this... I'm assuming they live out of town and you having a larger home would mean a guest bedroom so they could stay for a few days (or more) at a time. They nearly doubled the size of their home in their 70's, but are seemingly pressuring you guys (or softly blaming you guys) into getting a larger home to facilitate more visits, instead of staying in their 3800sq foot fhome and having the money for a hotel?

I might be totally wrong but I have some family members like this. I also have family members with in-laws like this. They're always guilt-tripping people into things while doing whatever they please instead of making the choices that would be the most fair and allow them to meet there own wishes.

I apologize if I'm wrong.. If I'm not wrong, I feel for you! Annoying situation.

StarBright

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #82 on: January 17, 2024, 01:11:50 PM »

I saw that article this morning too and felt the same way. I immediately read parts out loud to my husband who said "oh, that is totally my parents."

My inlaws recently sold their large home and were lamenting that they hadn't been able to sell it to a young family. I pointed out that several young families had put in offers and wrote really nice letters, but a boomer couple outbid them (by a LOT) so my inlaws sold the big old house to the boomer couple who are going to use it as a rental property. In-laws went from a 3800 sqft house to an almost 6k sqft house - they are in their 70s.

They would like us to upsize into a larger home (ours is just over 1600 sqft) so they can visit us more. But we can't really afford to move up into the next size of houses in our school district (and definitely not with the current interest rates).

I never understood things like this... I'm assuming they live out of town and you having a larger home would mean a guest bedroom so they could stay for a few days (or more) at a time. They nearly doubled the size of their home in their 70's, but are seemingly pressuring you guys (or softly blaming you guys) into getting a larger home to facilitate more visits, instead of staying in their 3800sq foot fhome and having the money for a hotel?

I might be totally wrong but I have some family members like this. I also have family members with in-laws like this. They're always guilt-tripping people into things while doing whatever they please instead of making the choices that would be the most fair and allow them to meet there own wishes.

I apologize if I'm wrong.. If I'm not wrong, I feel for you! Annoying situation.

They moved from a VHCOL area to a LCOL area so paid for the bigger house with cash left over. If they were going to pick up and move across the country they wanted their dream house.

But yes they live several states away. They just don't really like hotels and our area doesn't have good AirBNBs. And they just don't understand why we don't upgrade, because they upgraded several times when they were in their 30s and 40s.

I know #notallboomers, but also, I have found that many Boomers just really underestimate wage stagnation over the last 30 years. I have a perfectly lovely coworker who was complaining to me that his kids expected too much when it came to salary. He made 80k when he was 40, and that should be good enough for his kids too! I pointed out that making 80k in the late 90s would be the equivalent of 150k now and he was flabbergasted.


ender

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #83 on: January 17, 2024, 06:29:44 PM »
I know #notallboomers, but also, I have found that many Boomers just really underestimate wage stagnation over the last 30 years. I have a perfectly lovely coworker who was complaining to me that his kids expected too much when it came to salary. He made 80k when he was 40, and that should be good enough for his kids too! I pointed out that making 80k in the late 90s would be the equivalent of 150k now and he was flabbergasted.

+1 this is super common in my experience.

Totally out of touch with how common their starting/mid career compensation vs 2024 dollars.

WayDownSouth

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #84 on: January 18, 2024, 02:04:01 PM »

I saw that article this morning too and felt the same way. I immediately read parts out loud to my husband who said "oh, that is totally my parents."

My inlaws recently sold their large home and were lamenting that they hadn't been able to sell it to a young family. I pointed out that several young families had put in offers and wrote really nice letters, but a boomer couple outbid them (by a LOT) so my inlaws sold the big old house to the boomer couple who are going to use it as a rental property. In-laws went from a 3800 sqft house to an almost 6k sqft house - they are in their 70s.

They would like us to upsize into a larger home (ours is just over 1600 sqft) so they can visit us more. But we can't really afford to move up into the next size of houses in our school district (and definitely not with the current interest rates).

I never understood things like this... I'm assuming they live out of town and you having a larger home would mean a guest bedroom so they could stay for a few days (or more) at a time. They nearly doubled the size of their home in their 70's, but are seemingly pressuring you guys (or softly blaming you guys) into getting a larger home to facilitate more visits, instead of staying in their 3800sq foot fhome and having the money for a hotel?

I might be totally wrong but I have some family members like this. I also have family members with in-laws like this. They're always guilt-tripping people into things while doing whatever they please instead of making the choices that would be the most fair and allow them to meet there own wishes.

I apologize if I'm wrong.. If I'm not wrong, I feel for you! Annoying situation.

They moved from a VHCOL area to a LCOL area so paid for the bigger house with cash left over. If they were going to pick up and move across the country they wanted their dream house.

But yes they live several states away. They just don't really like hotels and our area doesn't have good AirBNBs. And they just don't understand why we don't upgrade, because they upgraded several times when they were in their 30s and 40s.

I know #notallboomers, but also, I have found that many Boomers just really underestimate wage stagnation over the last 30 years. I have a perfectly lovely coworker who was complaining to me that his kids expected too much when it came to salary. He made 80k when he was 40, and that should be good enough for his kids too! I pointed out that making 80k in the late 90s would be the equivalent of 150k now and he was flabbergasted.

Sounds like their situation is a little more understandable than I had imagined then. Sounds like yes, underestimation of wage stagnation. Reminds me to remember to do my best to not judge the youngest generation who have it the worst, and by a multiplied factor thanks to what they're taught and what they absorb from what's "the norm" nowadays.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #85 on: January 18, 2024, 02:17:38 PM »
They have two living/family rooms that they actually spend time in, and a third that I think basically just gets used to open presents on Christmas morning.

The FORBIDDEN ROOOM!

I thought my parents were the only ones ever to have a room that was used just to open Christmas presents, house the piano that nobody played, and punish children who were a little too into exploration.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #86 on: January 19, 2024, 08:23:06 AM »
Boy, I can relate to a lot of this.  My dad (age 76) and his new wife (age 80) moved into a 6000 sqft house last year.  We had a big house when I was a teen (~4000 sqft) but this is still a lot bigger.  My wife and I have a ~1600 sqft house.  Fortunately, no one pressures us to get a bigger house -- my dad likes hotels and my in-laws are...complicated house guests...so my wife is happy not to have too much space.  That said, we can (and do) comfortably host 1-2 visitors in our downstairs den / guestroom.

I have no idea what we'll do when we're empty nesters -- DD is 8.  Personally, I like the idea of something multi-generational, but our house isn't so big.  We could finish the basement, I suppose.  I also like the idea of a tiny house in the backyard.  Who knows?

I'm new to Canada (3.5 years) but it definitely seems like housing is more challenging here (than it was in Florida).  Even where I live (rural Nova Scotia) housing has gotten really expensive and their simply isn't enough of it.  We paid $250K CAD for our house in July 2020, and similar houses in our neighborhood are now selling for $400K.

And we also had a "forbidden" living room, with an unplayed piano. :)  We opened our Christmas presents in the regular family room, though.  I actually liked the living room, because it had no furniture (besides the piano and a desk) so my sister and I would use it for indoor soccer.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #87 on: January 19, 2024, 01:26:45 PM »
I think these kind of things always have two sides, and the media will always hype the bad side.  IN 2006 there were articles that housing was unaffordable, not that owning a home was making the middle class wealthy.  Then in 2009, its not like the headlines were "Now homes are becoming affordable!", it was that people who owned homes were dropping in Net Worth and going underwater in their mortgages.  When inflation was low they talked about how fixed income was impossible to find, not that inflation was not a problem, and when rates jump they talked about how bad inflation was, not that you could make 5% off a CD again.  I remember when the dangers of overpopulation was all the talk...now I hear how one of our largest problems coming up is our declining population and not having enough young workers.  No ever talked about benefits of both sides.

Its not just the media....Around here all I heard about last year was how our winter sucked because it was too warm and there was no snow, this year it sucks because of all the snow and it is cold.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #88 on: January 19, 2024, 01:37:56 PM »
They have two living/family rooms that they actually spend time in, and a third that I think basically just gets used to open presents on Christmas morning.

The FORBIDDEN ROOOM!

I thought my parents were the only ones ever to have a room that was used just to open Christmas presents, house the piano that nobody played, and punish children who were a little too into exploration.

I call it the museum room: A space full of pretty stuff that you can look at, but do not touch.

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #89 on: January 19, 2024, 02:18:45 PM »
We're empty nest Boomers interested in downsizing, but there is very little inventory, and when we do see something, the numbers don't make any sense. Ours is a rock-solid 2600+ sf custom built home (circa 2006) with a 1050 sf garage. We can get a shitty old house that's half the size, in far worse shape, for what we paid for ours in 2012 (often more, way more).

Seriously, we've been actively looking since 2019. We check online listings constantly and visit Open Houses almost every weekend.

There are many sides to every story.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2024, 10:00:03 PM by Dicey »

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #90 on: January 19, 2024, 02:50:20 PM »
They have two living/family rooms that they actually spend time in, and a third that I think basically just gets used to open presents on Christmas morning.

The FORBIDDEN ROOOM!

I thought my parents were the only ones ever to have a room that was used just to open Christmas presents, house the piano that nobody played, and punish children who were a little too into exploration.

I call it the museum room: A space full of pretty stuff that you can look at, but do not touch.

Ours was completely empty and had lime green carpet. We used to dance in there. No piano but I had a portable record player and a stack of 45s.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2024, 02:51:55 PM by Morning Glory »

StarBright

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #91 on: January 19, 2024, 03:23:29 PM »
We're empty nest Boomers interested in downsizing, but there is very little inventory, and when we do sees omething, the numbers don't make ahy sense. Ours is a rock-solid 2600 sf custom built home (circa 2006) with a 1050 sf garage. We can get a shitty old houset hat's half the size, in far worse shape, for what we paid for ours in 2012 (often more.)

Seriously, we've been actively looking since 2019. We check online listings constantly and visit Open Houses almost every weekend.

There are many sides to every story.

I think that tracks for sure! Where I live small houses get bought up for cash and turned into rentals.

roomtempmayo

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #92 on: January 21, 2024, 08:01:12 PM »
We're empty nest Boomers interested in downsizing, but there is very little inventory, and when we do see something, the numbers don't make any sense. Ours is a rock-solid 2600+ sf custom built home (circa 2006) with a 1050 sf garage. We can get a shitty old house that's half the size, in far worse shape, for what we paid for ours in 2012 (often more, way more).

Seriously, we've been actively looking since 2019. We check online listings constantly and visit Open Houses almost every weekend.

There are many sides to every story.

One of the struggles we had when looking for a smaller house was that they were almost universally run down and/or plagued by a succession of short-term owners DIYing based on YouTube videos.  Around here at least, people rarely put real money into small houses.

Sometimes I've felt like our local market is a better value in the 2500+ sqft range where you're more likely to find houses that have been professionally cared for and had lots of the quality of life issues addressed properly instead of papered over repeatedly to get through the next sale.

reeshau

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Re: The "Housing Crisis" is a hyped-up media falsehood - change my mind
« Reply #93 on: January 22, 2024, 05:43:48 AM »
Buying new isn't going to be a bargain in this market, but many builders have shrunk their home footprints in response to high interest rates.