- The Senate hasn't debated anything even though there's been a house bill passed a month ago. This seems dangerous given the various maneuvers Senators can use to delay if there isn't open debate. Pass your own bill and go to committee. I think they don't want to do this because it weakens the White House's starting point of "no concessions", which some want them to take.
IMO this suggests Biden might have a plan to end debt ceiling standoffs forever, by ignoring the debt ceiling and going about one's business. Whether this occurs under the justification of the 14th amendment or if he just uses money printing to fund everything until the Republicans give in remains to be seen.
- Why has the word "default" been uttered? The country brings in 7x more revenue than interest expense on the debt. There's no reason to "default", prioritization of payments would likely slow payments for Medicare reimbursements then the lobbies eventually resolve this.
Each side in the standoff has one way to lose for sure and one way to
maybe lose. The way to lose for sure is to concede to the opponent's demands. The way to
maybe lose is to let default happen, play an aggressive blame game, and hope one's opponent suffers more reputational damage than oneself. Ah, the wonderful world of a two-party system.
- The left is doing a poor job with the microphone. Polling data is against them. They've been telling everyone that all deficit problems are from "the Trump tax cuts", but tax revenue is way up. Something like 33% over 2020 levels. Instead ask the politically correct question: What do you want to cut? The answer is nothing, it's about spending caps, they've lost the narrative. It's like the entire plan was expect something horrible to happen in the house, and instead they got a vanilla style bill from the right and have no idea what to do. How do you win calling a work requirement for able bodied adults "hostage taking"? A 1.5% reduction in spending "hostage taking"? Did the expect a Medicare cut and suddenly don't know what to do?
From Biden's perspective, the rest of his term could be consumed with one debt ceiling standoff after another. His entire legislative agenda and everything Democrats hold dear could be bargained away, piece by piece, if he is willing to bargain. This is another reason to think he's not actually willing to bargain, and is only going through the motions of negotiation to look reasonable before striking some sort of death blow to the debt ceiling. The man is an 80 year old cancer survivor with a 41.8% approval rating and is facing signs of an imminent recession during his term. That means he doesn't have much to lose in a fight to the political death!
Democrats have been poor communicators for at least a decade, perhaps due to the party's requirement to placate a more diverse base. Al Gore's wooden style was being mocked 25 years ago. Obama started as a strong speaker, but was inexplicably reduced to studdering, awkwardly hedging, and saying umm a lot after his first year. Hillary Clinton alternated between smiling/waving and screeching meaningless platitudes. Pelosi did the same, but was not screechy enough to get attention, so I cannot remember even one speech or compelling statement by her. Biden also speaks in platitudes, but in such a quiet polite manner we have to wonder if he's running out of air. In terms of messaging, all come across as defenders of the status quo that a lot of people are frustrated with and none elicit boldness, excitement, or hope. Democrats don't say newsworthy things, and so the right's media machine speaks for them.
I personally voted for this administration to have an adult in the White House. Sometimes it seems like we have that...other times we get this.
I think the "hostage taking" is an analogy not for the demands, but for the method of getting those demands. If all I want is a pizza, and I hijack a bus full of school children and threaten to kill them unless I get a pizza, it's still hostage taking even though my demands are small.
IDK, how much is a reasonable amount to give away in a game of chicken you are forced to play? If the Republican offer seems low, it is because they know Biden has other cards he could play as an alternative to compromise. If a president committed to negotiating away legislative and budget priorities every time a debt ceiling came along, there would eventually be no Medicaid, no ACA, no public health, no EPA or IRS law enforcement, abandonment of Ukraine, and eventually Social Security cuts. How much of the above would you sign your name to if in Biden's shoes? I'd fight it out too.
A truth that explains this is that Democratic Party is actually the small ‘c’ conservative party . Most people haven’t fully absorbed that yet because it seems so counterintuitive. The Democratic Party believes in rules and process, to almost a comical extent, both on-the-books rules and unspoken rules of decorum. Moving slowly, doing things in what they perceive as the ‘right way’, accounts for a lot of their inexplicable and counterproductive behavior.
Through this lens, the debt ceiling laws of the WW1 and WW2 era are in contradiction to the 14th amendment, and therefore are superceded if Congress fails to pass a bill. Recall that when Democrats have been in control of Congress, they have since 1979 typically applied the
Gephardt Rule, which means Congress approves the debt when they approve the budget. That is their longstanding stance on how debts and budgets should be approved. It is legally consistent and it avoids the establishment or repeal of legislation outside the Congressional procedures outlined in the Constitution.
That rationale is persuasive to lawyers, but to the average man-on-the-street who faces the impacts of a financial crisis, maybe the blame goes to the poorest communicator with the fewest party-loyal media outlets.