Not necessarily trying to time the market, but I like to look ahead and think about what might be coming, especially since the consensus is that the market is high and what naturally follows in the economic cycle is a recession.
The media is reporting that Mueller's already built an obstruction of justice case and may be only be waiting to make it even stronger before bringing it forward.
I'm wondering what effect you think it would have on the stock market if Trump was impeached?
Or what odds you think he's got of serving a full term (or two)?
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud. War is not good for business.
War generally is good for business...
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud. War is not good for business.
War generally is good for business...
Literally the biggest economic draw down in U.S. history was fixed in large part because of increased spending on World War 2
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud. War is not good for business.
War generally is good for business...
Literally the biggest economic draw down in U.S. history was fixed in large part because of increased spending on World War 2
War generally is good for business...
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_of_Acquisition) #34: War is good for business.
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #35: Peace is good for business.
...That brief depression after WWII was followed by a rather significant period of prosperity once everybody was back home, building homes, going to school on the GI Bill, and getting on with their lives. Generally speaking, the most expensive way to procure a good/service is to have the government do it during a time of war unless there are price controls involved...
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.
the president doesnt really directly effect the stock market. you can come up with dozens of reasons for why the stock market did or does what it did. who really cares though b/c no one can really predict it.
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.
well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.
well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.
well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.
well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
debt != deficitWRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.
well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.
Year Deficit 2009 -1,412,688 2010 -1,294,373 2011 -1,299,599 2012 -1,086,955 2013 -679,542 2014 -484,600 2015 -438,496 2016 -584,651 2017 -665,372 |
Not necessarily trying to time the market, but I like to look ahead and think about what might be coming, especially since the consensus is that the market is high and what naturally follows in the economic cycle is a recession.
The media is reporting that Mueller's already built an obstruction of justice case and may be only be waiting to make it even stronger before bringing it forward.
I'm wondering what effect you think it would have on the stock market if Trump was impeached?
Or what odds you think he's got of serving a full term (or two)?
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.
Note that I said the deficits had been trending down. That is, the amount of money the government borrows each year. The total amount borrowed of course is going up. Anyway, here are the data:
Year Deficit
2009 -1,412,688
2010 -1,294,373
2011 -1,299,599
2012 -1,086,955
2013 -679,542
2014 -484,600
2015 -438,496
2016 -584,651
2017 -665,372
There has been an uptick the last couple years, but overall deficits are down quite dramatically from the depths of the recession. However, with the new tax cut law, deficits will skyrocket back above $1 trillion/year. While there is a benefit to the government injecting money into the economy like that, it comes with a price. We have to pay interest on all that borrowing. That ultimately means higher taxes or cuts in services. Or most likely both. IMO, keeping the deficits in check now would be much better public policy than exploding the deficits now and kicking the problem down the road. But I don't make the rules.
All data from here:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.
Note that I said the deficits had been trending down. That is, the amount of money the government borrows each year. The total amount borrowed of course is going up. Anyway, here are the data:
Year Deficit
2009 -1,412,688
2010 -1,294,373
2011 -1,299,599
2012 -1,086,955
2013 -679,542
2014 -484,600
2015 -438,496
2016 -584,651
2017 -665,372
There has been an uptick the last couple years, but overall deficits are down quite dramatically from the depths of the recession. However, with the new tax cut law, deficits will skyrocket back above $1 trillion/year. While there is a benefit to the government injecting money into the economy like that, it comes with a price. We have to pay interest on all that borrowing. That ultimately means higher taxes or cuts in services. Or most likely both. IMO, keeping the deficits in check now would be much better public policy than exploding the deficits now and kicking the problem down the road. But I don't make the rules.
All data from here:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/
since the discussion must be about deficits, we have already been defeated.
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.
Note that I said the deficits had been trending down. That is, the amount of money the government borrows each year. The total amount borrowed of course is going up. Anyway, here are the data:
Year Deficit
2009 -1,412,688
2010 -1,294,373
2011 -1,299,599
2012 -1,086,955
2013 -679,542
2014 -484,600
2015 -438,496
2016 -584,651
2017 -665,372
There has been an uptick the last couple years, but overall deficits are down quite dramatically from the depths of the recession. However, with the new tax cut law, deficits will skyrocket back above $1 trillion/year. While there is a benefit to the government injecting money into the economy like that, it comes with a price. We have to pay interest on all that borrowing. That ultimately means higher taxes or cuts in services. Or most likely both. IMO, keeping the deficits in check now would be much better public policy than exploding the deficits now and kicking the problem down the road. But I don't make the rules.
All data from here:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/
since the discussion must be about deficits, we have already been defeated.
That's a valid point of view, but it's still inaccurate to pretend all administrations have been equally bad on this front. The debt is now getting bigger faster than it has in a long time, especially if you compare against periods with similar economic health.
After Mr. Trump was elected, the stock market rose, fell, then rose again, along with the prospects for corporate-tax cuts. This was the sort of uncertainty investors like: Something good might happen. It wasn't clear whether Mr. Trump's policies would make it through Congress, but if they did it would surely help stocks.
The uncertainty today is whether something bad will happen. If Mr. Trump is serious about trashing the global trading system, there are few places for investors to hide. Stocks will suffer, the economy will slow and inflation will pick up.
...
We have switched from an era of uncertainty about policy helping the markets to one of uncertainty about policy hurting.
WRT the tax plan, I worry a little about an increase in debt over the long term, or that being used an excuse to cut Social Security, etc., which could lead to wider negative impact.
well, the debt was increasing substantially prior to the tax plan and will, regardless of party elected likely continue to increase substantially.
The debt was increasing but deficits had been trending down for a number of years. The tax cuts and spending increases roughly doubled the deficit. I don't think this is good public policy.
I'd love to see your data on this. I look at the chart of national debt and it only keeps chugging up. Neither the Left's Man nor the Right's Man has done anything to slow its increase over the last say 5 years.
I'm more worried that he's going to start a war with North Korea over something stupid like a twitter feud. War is not good for business.
War generally is good for business...
Literally the biggest economic draw down in U.S. history was fixed in large part because of increased spending on World War 2
I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.
the president doesnt really directly effect the stock market. you can come up with dozens of reasons for why the stock market did or does what it did. who really cares though b/c no one can really predict it.
I believe our current Commander-In-Chief *did* directly affect the stock market by slashing the top tax rate from 35% to 21%. Stocks do trade on P/E multiples, no?
I believe our current Commander-In-Chief *did* directly affect the stock market by slashing the top tax rate from 35% to 21%. Stocks do trade on P/E multiples, no?I find these answers interesting because I thought the stock market really took off after Trump got elected because of the assumption that he would be business friendly. Maybe I'm wrong.
the president doesnt really directly effect the stock market. you can come up with dozens of reasons for why the stock market did or does what it did. who really cares though b/c no one can really predict it.
How much of stock market is tied to Trump?If he's selling shares to pay women to keep quiet, it would have to be a huge volume to affect the market.
Now, while I appreciate Trump as a negotiator (far more so than any of his recent predecessors), I am worried that he plans to inflate us out of our national debt. This guy has had maybe 6 companies declare Bankruptcy, and the reason to load up on a ton more debt right now (which we are doing) is the 'logical' thing to do if you only intend to pay it back with much less valuable dollars.^^^ I fully expect Trump to put forth policies that will lead to inflation. It's good for him, and that's what he cares about. As to whether he can get those policies implemented ... I'm less worried as I hold a different opinion on his actual negotiation skill. Ultimately, the outcome is what will matter, and it's too soon to tell what that will be.