How good was January

[marty998]

A return to a proper bull market? Or will we be let down by half yearly reporting/confession session that kicks off in February? The market seems to be ignoring any bad news at the moment, the dogs are having their day.

My super was up a bit and my bank shares did well, but I had a speccy stock that was sold off a little which brought my overall result back to earth.

I'm predicting some very sobering news. Rio Tinto have already announced multi billion dollar impairments on their Alcan aluminium asset. CEO blows up $35billion in 5 years and walks away with $35million in his pocket. BHP won't be as bad, but there will be impairments here and there.

Credit growth is non-existant, the banks are having a hard time generating any loans. December was apparently the worst month ever for first-home owner loans. Expect to see more of the same from the bank execs. "Tough environment", "funding costs are rising", guarantee you that will be the gist of their speeches. Having said that, loan impairments are not getting out of hand, people are still paying their mortgages.

The entire Aussie market has been repriced from 10x forward P/E to 13x in a couple of months. It's back thereabouts to long term averages but we don't have the growth to sustain it. Can see it dropping back a little before picking up in the second half. Hurts me to say it but a new Liberal government will be a positive for business and consumer confidence from September onwards.

[bigchrisb]

Agree, Jan was a huge month - I'm up over $60k from  the market this month alone.  I share your concern about the market being rather effervescent. I've certainly slowed down buying new stock, and am more focussed on paying down margin debt - if my gut feel is wrong, at least I'm saving some interest, and if my gut feel is right,  I'm building up some more capacity for future purchases.  Interesting times indeed.

[AdrianM]

Was fun to watch, but it is not what I wanted to see.

I want stocks to go down.

So I can buy them cheaply.

[smedleyb]

A return to a proper bull market? Or will we be let down by half yearly reporting/confession session that kicks off in February? The market seems to be ignoring any bad news at the moment, the dogs are having their day.

Climbing the wall of worry, or whistling past a graveyard? 

Or something entirely more boring, sideways, and uneventful?

Some have pointed to this weeks Baron's cover which announces the rebirth of the bull as a major contrarian indicator.  For example, in 1982 Newsweek splashed "The Death of Equites" across it's cover, just as the greatest bull was about to commence.  Did Baron's call the top of this current cyclical rally that began in 2009 in a similar way?   

http://www.businessinsider.com/barrons-contrarian-cover-2013-2

[bigchrisb]

Was fun to watch, but it is not what I wanted to see.

I want stocks to go down.

So I can buy them cheaply.

+1 to that.  I'm well and truly still in the accumulation phase, and I'd much rather be buying more shares for my dollar, with higher yields.  That said, the broad index yield, including franking credits is still running at about 5.5%, which is a whole lot healthier than non-equity alternatives.

While it will get negative feedback on this forum, my gut says to focus on paying down investment debt at the moment, rather than to keep investing.  Although I'll keep up a bit of regular investment through super.  Market timing?  Yep.  Will it be shown right or wrong over time?  Who knows.  Either way, my margin account is at about 65% LVR (2:1 gearing), and it makes me nervous!

[marty998]

I would be nervous too with 65%. Used to have 50% and nearly got wiped out in 2009. I stick with about 30% now but it is on a much smaller portfolio. Paying down debt is a good thing, not only gives you more equity, but greater capacity to borrow more if you choose.

There's a few wobbles on the market today. Macquarie in the doghouse for variuos reasons. My speccy seems to have gone to sleep. I prefer if it moves - up is great, down gives me a reason to sell and get out. Staying put tells me nothing.

[happy]

 Yes January was pretty good for me too. My response was much less cerebral than you guys though: "Holy Guacomole, look at those numbers, Yee-ha!".  My super stache  has been rising pretty well since I started watching it 7 months ago. Believe it or not I used to ignore it since it is all pretty well out of my control.

[marty998]

Apologies for necroing a dead thread, makes sense not to start a new one.

Make enough predictions and one comes through eventually. I did predict a pullback, but the market rose further over March/April before coming back in May. Growth is stalling due to the contraction in government spending (-0.9% impact to GDP in March qtr). Who said Labor's spending is out of control? If anything they are causing a downturn by turning off the public sector spend.

I am a nervous owner of a speccy called Avanco Resources (ASX code: AVB) which is in a trading halt pending a JORC copper resource upgrade and mine financing announcement due out before Wednesday. I've held (and lost) on speccies in the past but this one has the sweet smell of a multi-bagger.

Fingers crossed, the lil stache could get turbocharged by this one.

[Joet]

Not sure whats going on in Oz, but it's highly tied to commodity pricing--not particularly applicable to North America or Europe or the rest of the asia-pacific market, so my comments might not be terribly applicable--but I doubt this is the tip of the iceberg. I'm not naive enough to think there wont be another recession (the chance of this is always 100%, heh), but I think mild/slow growth is possible moving forward.

That being said I've heard there are some serious problems in Oz at the macro level. Deficits, currency pressure, problems everywhere. Sounds like the US lol