Author Topic: Ben Carlson on backing up the truck  (Read 1705 times)

AdrianC

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Ben Carlson on backing up the truck
« on: March 28, 2020, 07:00:01 AM »
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/03/how-im-managing-my-own-money-through-the-crisis/

Posted March 22, 2020 by Ben Carlson
...I’m putting together as much cash as I’m comfortable parting ways with. I’ll put a decent chunk to work if we reach the 40% level. At 50% I’m backing up the truck.

In his latest podcast (Animal Spirits Ep.133 March 27) he talks about possibly doing a cash-out refi and investing that money in stocks.

Carlson (and co-host Michael Batnick) are millennials, definitely not FIRE-types, though they do have some complimentary things to say about FIRE people in the latest pod.

effigy98

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Re: Ben Carlson on backing up the truck
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2020, 11:15:12 AM »
Not a bad idea. Worst case scenario it halves again and they have to walk away from mortgage. So many people will be in same boat it won't matter much relatively. The upside  is super fat FIRE.

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Joe Schmo

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Re: Ben Carlson on backing up the truck
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2020, 12:22:04 PM »
I'm kinda loading into the bed of the truck for awhile and then dumping it a few weeks later. Damn I wish I had my mortgage paid off...I'd literally be eating rice/beans/deer for the next two years and buying everything in sight!!

AdrianC

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Re: Ben Carlson on backing up the truck
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2020, 12:51:47 PM »
I’ll point out Carlson isn’t buying yet. I agree with that. The broad market isn’t cheap, it’s just cheaper than it was.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Ben Carlson on backing up the truck
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2020, 11:41:01 AM »
I’ll point out Carlson isn’t buying yet. I agree with that. The broad market isn’t cheap, it’s just cheaper than it was.

IMHO, he’s right to be patient. Bear markets don’t typically end in 2-3 weeks. You see sharp drops, then rallies, then drops, then rallies, but the trend is toward the bottom over weeks and months.

vand

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Re: Ben Carlson on backing up the truck
« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2020, 03:59:12 AM »
It's a sensible plan, and one that I'm sort of following too.

Historical precedence suggests there is a good chance we'll see -40%, a fair chance that we'll see -50%, and a small chance that we'll see -60%. (But it also suggests there is also a chance that we have already seen the bottom, so best have made use of at least some of your ammo).

If we do reach those depts or even lower, there will be some element of duration about it also, enough time to pull some cash together to plan your next few buying points.

Having a clear plan is key. It doesn't need to be the best plan, just one that emboldens you to action during the window of opportunity.

BTW, I just love this quote from the article:

"A high savings rate acts as a margin of safety."

Nail. Head.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 04:08:51 AM by vand »

nkt0

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Re: Ben Carlson on backing up the truck
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2020, 07:24:08 AM »
Isn't this yet another form of timing the market?