Author Topic: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?  (Read 2689 times)

sdp

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how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« on: January 01, 2014, 09:21:29 PM »
Geez!
What is with the influx of all the posts lately that start with, "I know it is foolish to try to time the market, but, what if I just ....."?
It should be real simple, people.  Come up with your strategy without letting the current market environment influence it too much, and then STICK TO IT.  Save as much of your paycheck as you can, invest it as quickly as you get it, and then leave it there... forever.

Nobody knows what is going to happen in the future

wtjbatman

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Re: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2014, 09:32:24 PM »
Pretty much. Whatever strategy you think is best for yourself, do it and stick with it. Unless your strategy is to save your money in a piggy bank, you are going to come out ahead.

Some people just enjoy telling other people what they're doing is wrong a little too much. Usually from the perspective of "Well I would never do that..."

arebelspy

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Re: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2014, 10:08:26 AM »
Geez!
What is with the influx of all the posts lately that start with, "I know it is foolish to try to time the market, but, what if I just ....."?
It should be real simple, people.  Come up with your strategy without letting the current market environment influence it too much, and then STICK TO IT.  Save as much of your paycheck as you can, invest it as quickly as you get it, and then leave it there... forever.

Nobody knows what is going to happen in the future

Not what I was expecting from the title.

Well said.
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aclarridge

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Re: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2014, 12:58:24 PM »
Geez!
What is with the influx of all the posts lately that start with, "I know it is foolish to try to time the market, but, what if I just ....."?
It should be real simple, people.  Come up with your strategy without letting the current market environment influence it too much, and then STICK TO IT.  Save as much of your paycheck as you can, invest it as quickly as you get it, and then leave it there... forever.

Nobody knows what is going to happen in the future

Not what I was expecting from the title.

Well said.

A big fat +1.

DaKini

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Re: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2014, 02:49:13 PM »
Thanks for this, i have the same problem. My emotions cannot fully comply with my ratio, but i work hard on it. Sadly Something is fooling me into the idea that market timing is not as hard as it really is.

steveo

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Re: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2014, 03:01:40 PM »
I think that there is nothing wrong with market timing as per the advice within this thread. The trick is to have a good strategy and be able to stick to it.

I also think for most people it is probably easier to just regularly invest, be comfortable with your asset allocation and rebalance every so often (once a year at the most).

Ian

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Re: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2014, 05:17:54 PM »
I definitely went into this thread thinking "Oh, this is one of those..." Well played.

CB

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Re: how do I time the market without calling it market timing?
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2014, 12:03:18 PM »
Come up with your strategy without letting the current market environment influence it too much, and then STICK TO IT. 

I think the latter part in all caps is really the crux of the problem many (most?) individual investors have when trying something other than buy-and-hold.  There are actually "market timing"-type approaches that can and do work (CAPE-based value approaches, momentum approaches) but they require knowledge/research, good data, and above all the discipline to carry out the plan without wavering.  In that sense, I think you can have an allocation scheme that does take into account current market conditions (i.e., "timing" the market in that sense) but it has to be the scheme that dictates your reaction to changes in conditions, not YOU the investor.  Then you have to, as sdp says, STICK to what your algorithm tells you to do.  For most people, that combination of skill and discipline is just not in reach.